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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden might be topping the polls for the Democratic nomination but the questions remain
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TheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,455
November 2017 edited November 2017
I've always said Johnny Mercer is awesome, more proof:
"Theresa May is jeopardising the 'integrity and credibility' of our party, senior MP says in blistering attack.
"Johnny Mercer has been to war and can recognise chaos when he sees it. The Conservative MP, tipped as a future leader, believes a state of ‘anarchy’ is in danger of engulfing his party.
"In an interview with the Telegraph today, the former Army captain, who served with distinction in Afghanistan, fires a warning shot in Theresa May’s direction that she needs to urgently get a grip on a ‘depressing’ series of events. If she doesn’t, he says, the nation will be wrecked by the “existential threat’ posed by the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street and John McDonnell living next door.
"Mr Mercer’s comments will fuel the crisis overwhelming Mrs May. The disastrous election, the resignation within a week of two Cabinet ministers and the ongoing Westminster sex scandal has led Mr Mercer to conclude that Mrs May’s premiership has reached a ‘critical point’. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/12/theresa-may-jeopardising-integrity-credibility-party-senior/
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/post/quote/5651/Comment_1770563
Could Creepy Uncle Joe just get it as he is the most sensible sounding credible of all of them?
Still feeling confident, haven’t felt this confident since last year when I effectively laid Labour to win Barnet when they were the 1/8 favourites.
GGMU.
If Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire momentum alone will probably see him win the nomination shortly after especially given Sanders has a huge war chest already and can saturate the big states with TV ads
Unfortunately the polling seems to suggest that she'd lose to Trump, but one thing at a time...
Mind you I have no idea which United will turn up
Should have gone for Poch.
There is potential for it to be a lot bigger, perhaps he just was misinformed / made poor decisions or perhaps something worse.
KUWAITI ACADEMIC CLAIMS GAY MEN HAVE AN 'ANAL WORM' THAT 'FEEDS ON SEMEN'
Mariam Al-Sohel argued the anal worm makes gay men attracted to other men
An academic in Kuwait has claimed she has a ‘cure’ for homosexuality saying gay men have an ‘anal worm’ that ‘feeds on semen’.
Mariam Al-Sohel claimed on Scope TV that she believes there are four genders – male, female, feminine gay men and butch lesbians – and she explained how she has found a cure for being gay based on Islamic prophecy.
She said: “I discovered therapeutic suppositories that curb the sexual urges of boys of the third gender.
“As well as the fourth gender, which is butch lesbians. This is all science, so there’s nothing to be ashamed of.
https://attitude.co.uk/article/kuwaiti-academic-claims-gay-men-have-an-anal-worm-that-feeds-on-semen/20804/
Posthumous execution for Farage anyone ?
Yep, you're right. Could ... could ... could ... could ... could.
But won't.
http://twitter.com/johnjohnstonmi/status/1121000852603527168
In 2016 Hillary won Iowa but lost New Hampshire to Sanders which was why it was a long contest as it was in 2008 when Obama won Iowa and Hillary won New Hampshire. By contrast Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 quickly wrapped up the Democratic nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-analyzed-40-years-of-primary-polls-even-early-on-theyre-fairly-predictive/
National polling in the 20 percent range, given his advantage in name recognition, suggests Sanders is not exactly the presumptive favourite.
Really grim reading.
A lot of Parliament would love to tie the PM into a circumstance where (s)he has to revoke, at the end of the tracks, but they've not managed it yet. Would the house really explicitly order a PM to do it? They all seem to want blood on someone else's hands.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1120967703009873920?s=20
Tusk etc would extend indefinitely, it is Macron who might veto from the EU Council side
I can't wait to see Mike Smithson's reaction to that ...
Though like all the top five or six, she is still in with a chance.
(Not sure she has all that much cash, as she's spent a lot of what she's raised.)
Joseph Russo, who was announced as the party’s top candidate for Scotland just yesterday, had said: “Black women scare me. I put this down to be chased through Amsterdam by a crazy black wh***”.
In another tweet, he had also said: “I wonder if there’s a c*** / anchovy correlation. One smells like the other.”
In separate comments, whose full context are unclear, he referred to an American woman a “b****”, adding: “i’d burn her as a yule log”."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/change-uk-joseph-russo-twitter-eu-elections-candidate-racism-a8884041.html
Plus Ashcroft's new polling has 57% of Democratic voters wanting more liberal and progressive candidates in 2020 and only 28% more centrists and moderates
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/04/the-battle-lines-for-2020-what-my-polling-says-about-the-next-presidential-election/
Shambolic.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/minorities-older-adults-boost-biden-atop-2020-democratic-field-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1S016T
1. Who would be appointed PM in that situation?
2. How a parliamentary consensus would come about among many disparate and competing parties, to consolidate 320+ MPs around support for the person identified in (1), in sufficient time and with sufficient solidity to prompt the Queen to invite them, and not the new Con leader, to become PM?
I don't think there has been any denial of its authenticity.
Sigh. Shambolic indeed.
Sanders favourite in the odds in the thread header above, Biden still may lead a few national polls but Sanders snapping at his heels and Sanders also leads in New Hampshire
Due diligence on employees is usually one of banks' - and I expect other employers as well - weakest spots. The stories I could tell!
People simply don't take this stuff seriously enough. And given the very tight timetable which CUK gave themselves I'm not surprised they are finding all sorts of stuff now which ought to have been picked up sooner.
Voting for another party is high treason if you're a Tory MP/councillor/activist.
Normally you're expert in telling people they aren't Tories, so I'd assume you'd be in favour of these expulsions.
I do hope all these Tories announcing that they are voting for a party other than Tory get expelled PDQ. That way at least they don't get a vote in any forthcoming leadership election.
Yes. That way those who remain in the party are Tories who actually vote Tory. Or is voting Tory now some sort of optional extra for Tory party members?
Biden's current lack of funding isn't that big a deal. The numbers raised by other candidates so far is low by historic standards (or indeed, by Trump's current standards on the other side - he raised close to double Sanders' total in 2019Q1); the gap of a few weeks' making can be closed.
I agree that the touchy-feely stuff is a potential problem but in the end, with a field of 20 or so, if he scores 20%+ in Iowa and New Hampshire, that puts him right at the front of the field. He can afford some opposition for past errors providing he remains a contender and that those who oppose him don't consolidate around a leading rival.
This isn't to say he will win but it is to say that he could and, IMO, his odds under-rate him. For all that it's early days, campaigns *are* running and for Biden to be at, or very close to, the lead without even officially being in the contest is about more than name-recognition now.
Until we get a bit more tolerant of past social media anyway...
Who let all of this riffraff into the room?
There's one smoking a joint, and that one's got SPOTS
If I had my way I'D HAVE ALL OF YOU SHOT!"
Excerpts from Farage's forthcoming rally speech
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_America_News_Network
Yes. It will be down to me, my brother and my husband. In 10 years time PMQs could end up being like a version of Gardeners' Question Time! Still, you could all do worse.
Both of us were in seats where our parties weren't going to win so we utilised our votes to help our parties for the best.
What’s the climate this afternoon? - not a sensible question.