politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections
It has just been reported that the new party, change UK, has had its party logo rejected by the Electoral Commission on the grounds that it could “mislead voters”.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said talks with the government are stalling due to a Tory desire for post-Brexit deregulation including pursuing a US trade deal, a sign that the cordial tone of the negotiations is faltering.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said talks with the government are stalling due to a Tory desire for post-Brexit deregulation including pursuing a US trade deal, a sign that the cordial tone of the negotiations is faltering.
Also a canny move by Jezza. What proportion of the population are genuinely up for a post-Brexit deregulation spree? Not top of most people's list I would guess.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
That's fair, but also they may have been kiboshed by Tom Watson's rapid counter-offensive of creating TIG-within-Labour to head off further defections.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
Yes, they really need to beat the Lib Dems here (given that they've decided not to ally with them). That might be close.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said talks with the government are stalling due to a Tory desire for post-Brexit deregulation including pursuing a US trade deal, a sign that the cordial tone of the negotiations is faltering.
Also a canny move by Jezza. What proportion of the population are genuinely up for a post-Brexit deregulation spree? Not top of most people's list I would guess.
No. Precisely. The uber Thatcherites think the rest of the population wants to live in their fantasy Ayn Rand land of mass deregulation, environmental collapse and zero hours for all. They'll find eventually people don't.
In fact they very much like stuff like the social chapter on holidays.
'A spokesperson for the Commission said: "The emblem contained a hashtag, and we cannot assess the material linked to a hashtag, which will change over time, against the legal tests.
“The emblem also contained the acronym TIG, which we were not satisfied was sufficiently well known."'
From the link. "Not sufficiently well known" is a weird objection, since it would presumably damage tig and no one else; its not like being too similar to an existing logo. Also most people would have informally run their design past the Commision with a week in hand.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
The only real way they can now make progress is with a merger with the Lib dems to create a proper 'centrist/centre left' party. Fishing in the same pool will leave everyone with nothing.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said talks with the government are stalling due to a Tory desire for post-Brexit deregulation including pursuing a US trade deal, a sign that the cordial tone of the negotiations is faltering.
Also a canny move by Jezza. What proportion of the population are genuinely up for a post-Brexit deregulation spree? Not top of most people's list I would guess.
No. Precisely. The uber Thatcherites think the rest of the population wants to live in their fantasy Ayn Rand land of mass deregulation, environmental collapse and zero hours for all. They'll find eventually people don't.
In fact they very much like stuff like the social chapter on holidays.
It’s a consequence of Leave leaders not actually having worked out what the point of Leave is.
Having their logo rejected sounds like a blessing in disguise. New parties with low brand recognition need a logo that captures in less than a second's viewing who they are and, broadly, what they stand for.
The unkind might argue that the complete mix and muddle described in the submitted logo does indeed capture what the ChUKkers are about but that would be an unfortunate irony rather than an intended piece of marketing.
In the first instance, with no time to get the logo well-known, I'd suggest that they'd be best off superimposing black capitals 'CHANGE' over an outline of Britain.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
The Euros were an entirely plausible scenario, and the locals a nailed-on certainty.
As soon as they left their previous parties, they should have registered a new group. Instead, they seemed to take two months to realise that they'd taken an irrevocable step, couldn't go back and unless they were all happy to stand down at the next GE (possibly only weeks away), they'd need to organise as a party.
That lost time was critical as a reason for some of the errors being made now.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
Yes, they really need to beat the Lib Dems here (given that they've decided not to ally with them). That might be close.
Like I said the other day, I think the Greens will beat both the Tiggers and the Lib Dems.
I feel like people (regardless of how they voted in the referendum) are just exasperated by the whole of "Westminster", so will be looking for the easiest way of protesting against the whole system, like in the 2009 Euro elections after the expenses scandal. Unfortunately for the LDs, despite having so few MPs, they'll still probably be grouped as part of "Westminster" (again like in the expenses scandal), in a way that the Greens won't be.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
The only real way they can now make progress is with a merger with the Lib dems to create a proper 'centrist/centre left' party. Fishing in the same pool will leave everyone with nothing.
That's true, but it only really works as a Change takeover, which means it has to be a merger from a position of strength. If the ChUKkers wanted to end up with the Lib Dems, they'd have just defected direct. They don't want to be tainted by that brand, which means that a genuine merger has to marry Lib Dem activist and data strengths, with ChUK electoral appeal and MPs/MEPs.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
We won't, as the infrastructure required to distribute and burn it would be prohibitively expensive - synthesised methane would do the job more cheaply. Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said talks with the government are stalling due to a Tory desire for post-Brexit deregulation including pursuing a US trade deal, a sign that the cordial tone of the negotiations is faltering.
Does anyone think UKIP could get more votes than Farage's new party, simply through name recognition? A lot of people probably think Farage is still UKIP leader.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
Does anyone think UKIP could get more votes than Farage's new party, simply through name recognition? A lot of people probably think Farage is still UKIP leader.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
We won't, as the infrastructure required to distribute and burn it would be prohibitively expensive - synthesised methane would do the job more cheaply. Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Heat pumps are in the main a cheaper option.
Heat pumps are great for new buildings with high spec thermal insulation. For older buildings - most of which have a gas supply - converting the gas distribution system to hydrogen is a viable means to decarbonise heat. Appliances would need modification or replacement, but we did that once already when we switched from towns gas to natural gas. Producing hydrogen from natural gas (or coal) with carbon capture is viable at very large scale - bioSNG would be more costly and need a heck of a lot of biomass.
Harris and Warren neck-and-neck, yet Harris was last matched at 5.8 on Betfair, and Warren at 28.0. I don't get it.
Will we get Lake and Palmer polls too ?
Warren should be doing better based on recognition. It's not about where you are, it's where you are going.
However Harris is definitely too short.
The other point is that Warren has burned through most of the cash she raised in the first quarter, apparently to little effect so far, whereas Harris and Buttigieg have kept most of what they raised.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
Won't we need electricity to get hydrogen?
Electrolysis is one route. Reforming/gasification of hydrocarbons (with carbon capture) is more scalable.
Bit weird. Going for Change UK (which is a daft name) and then trying to stick to the TIG line for the logo.
I’m going to guess that they tried to register The Independent Group as the party name, and the Electoral Commission told them to get lost, as “Independent” is a reserved word for candidates of no party affiliation standing in elections. Hence “Change UK” as the party name, or “the EU’s cucks, if you’re Nigel Farage.
OT, but very interesting and detailed paper on what it would take to achieve 100% renewable generation by 2050. http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
Won't we need electricity to get hydrogen?
Yup. And unless they've repealed those pesky thermodynamics laws, the amount of heat and energy required to produce the electricity to get the hydrogen is far greater than the heat and electricity saved by the hydrogen that you got. Unless we get it from the nearest free source of course, which is (thinks for a minute) the outer gas giant planets.
No surprise that the Brexit-supporting elite should use its servants within the bureaucracy to hamper Brexit's enemies. The establishment won't have a word said against Brexit. Brexit's advocates all went to the top schools and universities, of course, so perish the thought that anyone might think Brexit was mistaken.
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
We won't, as the infrastructure required to distribute and burn it would be prohibitively expensive - synthesised methane would do the job more cheaply. Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Heat pumps are in the main a cheaper option.
Heat pumps are great for new buildings with high spec thermal insulation. For older buildings - most of which have a gas supply - converting the gas distribution system to hydrogen is a viable means to decarbonise heat. Appliances would need modification or replacement, but we did that once already when we switched from towns gas to natural gas. Producing hydrogen from natural gas (or coal) with carbon capture is viable at very large scale - bioSNG would be more costly and need a heck of a lot of biomass.
Google search: h21 north of england hydrogen
I don't think you can reliably distribute hydrogen over the existing gas network ?
In any event, that is hardly of importance to the major world population centres in 2050 - Asia and Africa.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
Because all other current options seem to lead either to economic catastrophe, or to no say on anything, or to a war in Ireland, which would be much worse ideas.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
Because all other current options seem to lead either to economic catastrophe, or to no say on anything, or to a war in Ireland, which would be much worse ideas.
What about May’s deal. Or was there a war with Ireland clause I missed?
Will the new SDP be standing and how is that not confusing?
The clearly pro Remain parties not forming a one off alliance is bonkers (I appreciate it may have been hard in the time available)
Any alliance whether LibDem/TIG or UKIP/Brexit woule have to agree who would top the alliance's list - and the order of subsequent names.
yes that clearly is a problem
It's not *that* much of a problem for LD/ChUK, who only have 1 MEP between them, and whose prospects of gaining many are considerably lower if competing as two parties rather than one (even allowing that you can't put a single list up and assume all the voters who would back the two independently would swing behind an alliance).
There'd be much more of a problem for UKIP/Brexit, who must already have a lot of bad blood between them anyway, when they have sitting MEPs to protect.
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
We won't, as the infrastructure required to distribute and burn it would be prohibitively expensive - synthesised methane would do the job more cheaply. Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Heat pumps are in the main a cheaper option.
Heat pumps are great for new buildings with high spec thermal insulation. For older buildings - most of which have a gas supply - converting the gas distribution system to hydrogen is a viable means to decarbonise heat. Appliances would need modification or replacement, but we did that once already when we switched from towns gas to natural gas. Producing hydrogen from natural gas (or coal) with carbon capture is viable at very large scale - bioSNG would be more costly and need a heck of a lot of biomass.
Google search: h21 north of england hydrogen
I don't think you can reliably distribute hydrogen over the existing gas network ?
In any event, that is hardly of importance to the major world population centres in 2050 - Asia and Africa.
There is a potential problem with high pressure transmission of hydrogen - hydrogen embrittlement of carbon steel pipelines - not good! At the lower pressure distribution level, where the entire network will be plastic in a few years time, then there is no problem with hydrogen.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
Because all other current options seem to lead either to economic catastrophe, or to no say on anything, or to a war in Ireland, which would be much worse ideas.
What about May’s deal. Or was there a war with Ireland clause I missed?
May's deal includes a customs union. They just call it the 'backstop.'
Will the new SDP be standing and how is that not confusing?
The clearly pro Remain parties not forming a one off alliance is bonkers (I appreciate it may have been hard in the time available)
Any alliance whether LibDem/TIG or UKIP/Brexit woule have to agree who would top the alliance's list - and the order of subsequent names.
yes that clearly is a problem
It's not *that* much of a problem for LD/ChUK, who only have 1 MEP between them, and whose prospects of gaining many are considerably lower if competing as two parties rather than one (even allowing that you can't put a single list up and assume all the voters who would back the two independently would swing behind an alliance).
There'd be much more of a problem for UKIP/Brexit, who must already have a lot of bad blood between them anyway, when they have sitting MEPs to protect.
Apparently, there's already a couple of Tory MEPs chicken-running to the CUK slate.
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
Won't we need electricity to get hydrogen?
Yup. And unless they've repealed those pesky thermodynamics laws, the amount of heat and energy required to produce the electricity to get the hydrogen is far greater than the heat and electricity saved by the hydrogen that you got. Unless we get it from the nearest free source of course, which is (thinks for a minute) the outer gas giant planets.
Pause.
Ok, that's not gonna work...
In areas of excess generation capacity, whether solar or wind, the marginal cost of electricity is effectively zero. Of course, that implies an excess capital investment in those areas, which can only be recouped if renewable fuels are mandated.
The model is based on an assumption of zero emissions by 2050 - and clearly that requires a political lead - but demonstrates that it is achievable without making the cost of energy prohibitive.
Will the new SDP be standing and how is that not confusing?
The clearly pro Remain parties not forming a one off alliance is bonkers (I appreciate it may have been hard in the time available)
Any alliance whether LibDem/TIG or UKIP/Brexit woule have to agree who would top the alliance's list - and the order of subsequent names.
yes that clearly is a problem
It's not *that* much of a problem for LD/ChUK, who only have 1 MEP between them, and whose prospects of gaining many are considerably lower if competing as two parties rather than one (even allowing that you can't put a single list up and assume all the voters who would back the two independently would swing behind an alliance).
There'd be much more of a problem for UKIP/Brexit, who must already have a lot of bad blood between them anyway, when they have sitting MEPs to protect.
I was only focusing on remain; as you point out I couldn't see Brexit/UKIP joining together. LD and TIG should have done something for the reasons you give and could have prospered by doing so. Ideally I would have liked to see the Greens come into that and even the nationalist but then it just gets too difficult to coordinate who goes where on the list.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
Because all other current options seem to lead either to economic catastrophe, or to no say on anything, or to a war in Ireland, which would be much worse ideas.
What about May’s deal. Or was there a war with Ireland clause I missed?
May's deal includes a customs union. They just call it the 'backstop.'
That's a fair point, but as a backup, not the main option.
Who was the American mayor who on being called out for falsely claiming he had played baseball for Oakland Athletics, issued the unforgettable clarification: 'after researching the matter, I came to the conclusion I was not in fact drafted by the As'?
Because that's a more convincing lie than the series Burgon's been telling over this.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
Because all other current options seem to lead either to economic catastrophe, or to no say on anything, or to a war in Ireland, which would be much worse ideas.
What about May’s deal. Or was there a war with Ireland clause I missed?
May's deal includes a customs union. They just call it the 'backstop.'
That's a fair point, but as a backup, not the main option.
And that is why I said 'all current options.' The idea of the backstop is it keeps an in a customs union until or unless a satisfactory way can be found to leave it.
Harris and Warren neck-and-neck, yet Harris was last matched at 5.8 on Betfair, and Warren at 28.0. I don't get it.
Will we get Lake and Palmer polls too ?
Warren should be doing better based on recognition. It's not about where you are, it's where you are going.
However Harris is definitely too short.
The other point is that Warren has burned through most of the cash she raised in the first quarter, apparently to little effect so far, whereas Harris and Buttigieg have kept most of what they raised.
Apparently Warren has hired the largest team. No idea whether that's a good idea or not, but it speaks to a candidate who is confident of further fundraising
Mr. Sandpit, aye, but that doesn't explain the logo cock-up.
They thought they could change the name, but keep the logo for the name that had been rejected. A party called "Change UK" with the logo "TIG" is meaningless.
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
We won't, as the infrastructure required to distribute and burn it would be prohibitively expensive - synthesised methane would do the job more cheaply. Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Heat pumps are in the main a cheaper option.
Heat pumps are great for new buildings with high spec thermal insulation. For older buildings - most of which have a gas supply - converting the gas distribution system to hydrogen is a viable means to decarbonise heat. Appliances would need modification or replacement, but we did that once already when we switched from towns gas to natural gas. Producing hydrogen from natural gas (or coal) with carbon capture is viable at very large scale - bioSNG would be more costly and need a heck of a lot of biomass.
Google search: h21 north of england hydrogen
I don't think you can reliably distribute hydrogen over the existing gas network ?
In any event, that is hardly of importance to the major world population centres in 2050 - Asia and Africa.
There is a potential problem with high pressure transmission of hydrogen - hydrogen embrittlement of carbon steel pipelines - not good! At the lower pressure distribution level, where the entire network will be plastic in a few years time, then there is no problem with hydrogen.
Perhaps (though the safety case appears as yet unproven), but I'd question how worthwhile the investment in CO2 sequestration, which seems to be part of the plan, is likely to be.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
Because all other current options seem to lead either to economic catastrophe, or to no say on anything, or to a war in Ireland, which would be much worse ideas.
What about May’s deal. Or was there a war with Ireland clause I missed?
May's deal includes a customs union. They just call it the 'backstop.'
Which is why the deal didn't pass the commons. Because the backstop put handcuffs on the UK for which the EU hold the keys.
Harris and Warren neck-and-neck, yet Harris was last matched at 5.8 on Betfair, and Warren at 28.0. I don't get it.
Will we get Lake and Palmer polls too ?
Warren should be doing better based on recognition. It's not about where you are, it's where you are going.
However Harris is definitely too short.
The other point is that Warren has burned through most of the cash she raised in the first quarter, apparently to little effect so far, whereas Harris and Buttigieg have kept most of what they raised.
Apparently Warren has hired the largest team. No idea whether that's a good idea or not, but it speaks to a candidate who is confident of further fundraising
Harris and Warren neck-and-neck, yet Harris was last matched at 5.8 on Betfair, and Warren at 28.0. I don't get it.
Will we get Lake and Palmer polls too ?
Warren should be doing better based on recognition. It's not about where you are, it's where you are going.
However Harris is definitely too short.
The other point is that Warren has burned through most of the cash she raised in the first quarter, apparently to little effect so far, whereas Harris and Buttigieg have kept most of what they raised.
The numbers overall are relatively small though, by American standards: $70m between them in 2019Q1, which compares with $81m back in the equivalent quarter in 2007. And Sanders - who raised most on the Democrat field, at $18m - was still a good deal short of Trump's $30m.
Who was the American mayor who on being called out for falsely claiming he had played baseball for Oakland Athletics, issued the unforgettable clarification: 'after researching the matter, I came to the conclusion I was not in fact drafted by the As'?
Because that's a more convincing lie than the series Burgon's been telling over this.
I'd never realised that transparent bollocks were a thing, but Burgon has proved them so.
Mr. Sandpit, aye, but that doesn't explain the logo cock-up.
They thought they could change the name, but keep the logo for the name that had been rejected. A party called "Change UK" with the logo "TIG" is meaningless.
So far if getting elected is an exam, the CUKs are finding it a huge struggle to write their name at the top of the answer sheet. Heaven help us when they move onto their actual questions, like "what do you stand for?", "what are your policies?", and "why should we vote for you?"
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
That's fair, but also they may have been kiboshed by Tom Watson's rapid counter-offensive of creating TIG-within-Labour to head off further defections.
TIG started well, but have since made a number of unforced errors. I appreciate that the Euros were generally unexpected, but they are below critical mass to do anything other than badly.
That's fair, but also they may have been kiboshed by Tom Watson's rapid counter-offensive of creating TIG-within-Labour to head off further defections.
It was a very smart move. There’s still a bunch of MPs in Labour who are liable to moan every time the regularly scheduled anti-semitism scandal breaks again, but they’ve essentially committed to staying in the party no matter what the leadership or its members may do. Tiggers had a very tough job, but they do seem to have failed to grab much attention. And new parties get their logos approved every week practically, it is not hard.
One of the less believable of apologies, given his very firm denials previously. He would have known if he said something like that, and equivocated more. But it should pass muster with the party faithful, these sorts of things always do, left and right.
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Thanks for the link.
"ramatic.
We won't, as the infrastructure required to distribute and burn it would be prohibitively expensive - synthesised methane would do the job more cheaply. Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Heat pumps are in the main a cheaper option.
Heat pumps are great for new buildings with high spec thermal insulation. For older buildings - most of which have a gas supply - converting the gas distribution system to hydrogen is a viable means to decarbonise heat. Appliances would need modification or replacement, but we did that once already when we switched from towns gas to natural gas. Producing hydrogen from natural gas (or coal) with carbon capture is viable at very large scale - bioSNG would be more costly and need a heck of a lot of biomass.
Google search: h21 north of england hydrogen
I don't think you can reliably distribute hydrogen over the existing gas network ?
In any event, that is hardly of importance to the major world population centres in 2050 - Asia and Africa.
There is a potential problem with high pressure transmission of hydrogen - hydrogen embrittlement of carbon steel pipelines - not good! At the lower pressure distribution level, where the entire network will be plastic in a few years time, then there is no problem with hydrogen.
Perhaps (though the safety case appears as yet unproven), but I'd question how worthwhile the investment in CO2 sequestration, which seems to be part of the plan, is likely to be.
The CO2 transport and storage infrastructure can be utilised by multiple sectors - power generation, hydrogen production and industry (e.g. cement, steel, oil refining, petrochemicals - some of which cannot decarbonise without carbon capture), thereby facilitating carbon capture from multiple sources and reducing the cost per tonne of CO2 captured and stored.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/16/brexit-talks-with-government-have-stalled-says-corbyn
Then in their acceptance speech they can say:
"The wonderful thing about Tiggers is I'm the only one!"
(Sorry)
In fact they very much like stuff like the social chapter on holidays.
“The emblem also contained the acronym TIG, which we were not satisfied was sufficiently well known."'
From the link. "Not sufficiently well known" is a weird objection, since it would presumably damage tig and no one else; its not like being too similar to an existing logo. Also most people would have informally run their design past the Commision with a week in hand.
The clearly pro Remain parties not forming a one off alliance is bonkers (I appreciate it may have been hard in the time available)
http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf
Electrification across all energy sectors is inevitable (see Figure KF-1) and is more resource efficient than the current system. Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors. Final energy fuel consumption is reduced by more than 2/3 (68%) from 2015 numbers, as fossil fuels are phased out completely and remaining fuels are either electricity-based or biofuels. Electricity will constitute for more than 90% of the primary energy demand in 2050. This electrification results in massive energy efficiency gains when compared to a low electrification trajectory (see KF-1). Almost all of the renewable energy supply will come from local and regional generation....
Briefly skimming the assumptions in their model, which appear in the appendices at the end, they do not seem to have made any heroic assumptions about any of the technologies involved (all of which are currently demonstrable).
The biggest assumption seems to be the political policy lead involved - though given the compelling economic case, even that might be feasible.
Oh...ummm...sorry. Easy mistake to make...
The unkind might argue that the complete mix and muddle described in the submitted logo does indeed capture what the ChUKkers are about but that would be an unfortunate irony rather than an intended piece of marketing.
In the first instance, with no time to get the logo well-known, I'd suggest that they'd be best off superimposing black capitals 'CHANGE' over an outline of Britain.
No
And it is not a new party.
Maybe they aren't bothering to use the logo on the ballot.
As soon as they left their previous parties, they should have registered a new group. Instead, they seemed to take two months to realise that they'd taken an irrevocable step, couldn't go back and unless they were all happy to stand down at the next GE (possibly only weeks away), they'd need to organise as a party.
That lost time was critical as a reason for some of the errors being made now.
Bit weird. Going for Change UK (which is a daft name) and then trying to stick to the TIG line for the logo.
"Electricity generation in 2050 will exceed four to five times that of 2015, primarily due to high electrification rates of the transport and heat sectors"
This is quite an assumption - if we make use of hydrogen to decarbonise heating, then the growth in demand for electricity will not be quite so dramatic.
I feel like people (regardless of how they voted in the referendum) are just exasperated by the whole of "Westminster", so will be looking for the easiest way of protesting against the whole system, like in the 2009 Euro elections after the expenses scandal. Unfortunately for the LDs, despite having so few MPs, they'll still probably be grouped as part of "Westminster" (again like in the expenses scandal), in a way that the Greens won't be.
https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/12/11/brexit-party-launch-9.jpg
Their MEP oflynn will stand in Peterborough if theres a by election
However Harris is definitely too short.
Syngas, as a means of energy storage/distribution is in the model in any event - but requires electricity for its production.
Heat pumps are in the main a cheaper option.
Although it could be worse. They might be the Tory and Unionist Party. Then they would be completely screwed...
if the bozos in government are struggling to agree with the EU what on earth makes them think they will progress with the maelstrom that is Trump ?
Nissan announces layoff of 600 workers in Catalonia
No deal with unions after four meetings; promised investment of 70 million euro up in the air
http://www.catalannews.com/business/item/nissan-announces-layoff-of-600-workers-in-catalonia
Google search: h21 north of england hydrogen
While the trends are certainly worth noting, they also need to be taken with a large dollop of caution.
(But how does Mike Gravel get *anyone* supporting him, with so many other candidates in the field?!)
Pause.
Ok, that's not gonna work...
In any event, that is hardly of importance to the major world population centres in 2050 - Asia and Africa.
That’s what happens when you have the EU collectively negotiate your trade deals. They end up being massively in favour of German and French industry, while screwing everyone else. Why does anyone think a customs union with the EU after we’ve left would be anything but an abysmal idea?
https://www.pollbludger.net
There'd be much more of a problem for UKIP/Brexit, who must already have a lot of bad blood between them anyway, when they have sitting MEPs to protect.
Of course, that implies an excess capital investment in those areas, which can only be recouped if renewable fuels are mandated.
The model is based on an assumption of zero emissions by 2050 - and clearly that requires a political lead - but demonstrates that it is achievable without making the cost of energy prohibitive.
Because that's a more convincing lie than the series Burgon's been telling over this.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RS05W
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-democratic-hopefuls-raise-75m-in-1st-quarter/2019/04/16/849274d4-6004-11e9-bf24-db4b9fb62aa2_story.html?utm_term=.43973d5bf1a4
One of the less believable of apologies, given his very firm denials previously. He would have known if he said something like that, and equivocated more. But it should pass muster with the party faithful, these sorts of things always do, left and right.