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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as

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  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    I spoke to a friend this morning who was instrumental in standing up Benny Gantz’s challenges

    The biggest surprise and disappointment was Arab turnout - they feel so beaten down by the new legislation that they didn’t vote - turnout in this section of the community was half normal levels

    If they had voted at normal rates it would have been Ciao Bibi.

    But they are proud of what they achieved from a standing start in a few months and are not going away
    Just for you Charles.

    (But interesting, thanks.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Charles said:

    The commentariat seems to agree with me:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1116114280095547394

    How does May walk back from her no longer than 30 June statement? (I think it was “not while I am pm”...)
    By ignoring it. She's in until they remove her or Brexit occurs or the sun expands .
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    And I will need to check the 'use by' dates on a whole stack of stockpiled food.
    Yes. I'd better break out the box tomorrow and circulate it back into the regular food supplies. (I'm not kidding - some of the end dates are August, so no good there)

    We'll be eating Fray Bentos pies for a week now.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    nico67 said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    This fudge to end of October designed to try and keep May in place and have it done and dusted before Bozo or another nutjob takes over .

    The end of June review designed to appease Macrons tantrum and also give May a date to work towards and a fig leaf .

    Personally an end of June cut off would have focused minds . I fear now MPs will just bicker for the next few months . The Tory Labour negotiations can now stop the pretence and collapse .

    MPs need to stop this showboating and get real . Although Macron might have been criticized he did have a point . Unless there’s a hard end date sooner rather than later MPs will just drag the whole thing out .


    Macron's primary motiviation was probably domestic politics, and if he did push it harder than the EU leaders thought reasonable that might have been overdoing it, but frankly it seemed a more likely way of achieving a resolution than the rest. But achieving a resolution, of some kind, is not really at the top of the list of priorities for most on any side here.
    An end of June cut off with no further exensions would have forced MPs to get a grip . As it is I expect the warring factions to recommence battle whilst the public looks on in horror .
    Actually, no - they government has decided to giive everyone a nice holiday, starting TOMORROW. So much for the talks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    nico67 said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    This fudge to end of October designed to try and keep May in place and have it done and dusted before Bozo or another nutjob takes over .

    The end of June review designed to appease Macrons tantrum and also give May a date to work towards and a fig leaf .

    Personally an end of June cut off would have focused minds . I fear now MPs will just bicker for the next few months . The Tory Labour negotiations can now stop the pretence and collapse .

    MPs need to stop this showboating and get real . Although Macron might have been criticized he did have a point . Unless there’s a hard end date sooner rather than later MPs will just drag the whole thing out .


    Macron's primary motiviation was probably domestic politics, and if he did push it harder than the EU leaders thought reasonable that might have been overdoing it, but frankly it seemed a more likely way of achieving a resolution than the rest. But achieving a resolution, of some kind, is not really at the top of the list of priorities for most on any side here.
    An end of June cut off with no further exensions would have forced MPs to get a grip . As it is I expect the warring factions to recommence battle whilst the public looks on in horror .
    Actually, no - they government has decided to giive everyone a nice holiday, starting TOMORROW. So much for the talks.
    Well now there really is no rush.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "It was the quote on which some of Roger Scruton’s defenders are silent that did it. Not his reference to a “Soros empire” in Hungary. Nor what he said about the Chinese. Here is what he seems to have said about the country’s Communist Party. “They are creating robots out of their own people by so constraining what can be done. [Our italics.] Each Chinese person is a kind of replica of the next one and that is a very frightening thing.” By cutting the words in italics, the New Statesman, which interviewed Scruton, distorted his view. Their removal was apparently made “for reasons of space in print edition”. His words were further twisted in a tweet by the journalist who spoke to him."

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/screwing-scruton.html
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    Twitter

    Paul Brand@PaulBrandITV

    Hearing PM disagreed with some of the detail of EU27’s plan, so Tusk has had to go back to them. We may be a little while longer yet.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    Hi William, I am a bit of a technophobe, how do you snapshot and post a tweet on here?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "It was the quote on which some of Roger Scruton’s defenders are silent that did it. Not his reference to a “Soros empire” in Hungary. Nor what he said about the Chinese. Here is what he seems to have said about the country’s Communist Party. “They are creating robots out of their own people by so constraining what can be done. [Our italics.] Each Chinese person is a kind of replica of the next one and that is a very frightening thing.” By cutting the words in italics, the New Statesman, which interviewed Scruton, distorted his view. Their removal was apparently made “for reasons of space in print edition”. His words were further twisted in a tweet by the journalist who spoke to him."

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/screwing-scruton.html

    May be one of the legal folk on here can say but if they have maliciously misrepresentated his position and caused him repetitional damage surely he could have recourse to the courts?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    fitalass said:

    Hi William, I am a bit of a technophobe, how do you snapshot and post a tweet on here?
    You just need to get the direct link to the tweet (either from the browser or find 'copy link to tweet' on the one you want) and post it directly into here.

    It would look like this, but without the space:

    h ttps://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1116122240729403392
  • AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20

    It's all happening tonight.
    Labor currently rated at 84% chance of winning.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?

    Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.

    If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.

    A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.

    I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.

    The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
    This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.

    It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,133
    How does one go about forming a party and standing for the EP elections?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305

    fitalass said:

    Hi William, I am a bit of a technophobe, how do you snapshot and post a tweet on here?
    You just need to get the direct link to the tweet (either from the browser or find 'copy link to tweet' on the one you want) and post it directly into here.

    It would look like this, but without the space:

    h ttps://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1116122240729403392
    Many thanks William.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?

    Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.

    If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.

    A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.

    I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.

    The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
    This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.

    It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.

    +1
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Definitely agreed now ! There was no drama just lawyers checking over the detail .
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?

    Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.

    If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.

    A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.

    I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.

    The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
    This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.

    It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.

    I do wonder if Tory MPs aren't eventually going to support a binding referendum. Their base won't like it but it's better than slowly bleeding to death, and once you're into extensions with no hint of a resolution it gets easier for them to justify it as a way to make brexit happen, rather than a way of holding it up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20

    It's all happening tonight.
    Labor currently rated at 84% chance of winning.
    Although their current poll average is 52.6% on 2PP and 50.7% is required for a win (on uniform swing), so they don't have all that much margin for error during the campaign.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,133
    I've just realised. If this is true, @williamglenn loses his bet to @SeanT by two months.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited April 2019
    viewcode said:

    I've just realised. If this is true, @williamglenn loses his bet to @SeanT by two months.

    Only if we actually leave. It just means I can't declare victory yet. :)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305

    So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?

    Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.

    If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.

    A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.

    I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.

    The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
    This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.

    It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.

    Definitely need a GE asap rather than another referendum.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    fitalass said:
    That tweet could be interpreted in two ways!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    fitalass said:
    I wouldn't miss a Juncker press conference for anything.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,133
    AndyJS said:

    fitalass said:
    I wouldn't miss a Juncker press conference for anything.
    Yes. But would you miss one for nothing? It's just that I have a bag of nothing and I'm willing to share if it would help.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    TMay: If Commons agrees deal in first 3 weeks of May then Euro elections won't take place and we leave on 1st June.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    fitalass said:
    I wouldn't miss a Juncker press conference for anything.
    Yes. But would you miss one for nothing? It's just that I have a bag of nothing and I'm willing to share if it would help.
    Ignore my attempts at jokes, I'm useless at it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited April 2019
    TMay not sounding as if she's about to stand down - emphasising we can still leave quickly if deal agreed.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    TMay 2019 exit has drifted a lot tonight.

    Earlier 1.08/1.10

    Now 1.13/1.19
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited April 2019
    All the signs are that things are just going to just drift.

    I think media are key now - I think public will get bored quickly - media will drop Brexit down the news running order - and then self fulfilling prophecy that people will lose interest.

    Also remember summer recess will be coming to block out best part of two months.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    https://twitter.com/politicalwire/status/1116119761384103937

    Joe Biden 23%,
    Bernie Sanders 16%,
    Pete Buttigieg 11%,
    Elizabeth Warren 9%,
    Kamala Harris 7%,
    Beto O’Rourke 6%,
    Cory Booker 4%
    Amy Klobuchar 2%.

    So Pete Buttigieg leads amongst those contenders under 76 years old
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    edited April 2019
    MikeL said:

    TMay 2019 exit has drifted a lot tonight.

    Earlier 1.08/1.10

    Now 1.13/1.19

    With this lengthier A50 extension agreed with EU, it would be ironic if Corbyn stands down first. And despite his constant demands for a GE, I just cannot see Corbyn being up for taking on the relentless workload May takes on daily as PM while Brexit remains unresolved. Can definitely see both parties having Leadership contests, especially if as I suspect a GE is becoming an ever more likely outcome later this year.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The media once again were desperate to big up no deal on Friday when anyone who knows the first thing about EU politics realized this was a manufactured drama .

    The Macron veto collapsed quicker than a badly made soufflé !

    The EU will never be the architects of a no deal . A no deal will have to be a UK decision.
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20

    It's all happening tonight.
    Labor currently rated at 84% chance of winning.
    Although their current poll average is 52.6% on 2PP and 50.7% is required for a win (on uniform swing), so they don't have all that much margin for error during the campaign.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122
    So could the Coalition be a value bet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    The media once again were desperate to big up no deal on Friday when anyone who knows the first thing about EU politics realized this was a manufactured drama .

    The Macron veto collapsed quicker than a badly made soufflé !

    The EU will never be the architects of a no deal . A no deal will have to be a UK decision.

    nico67 Macron confirmed. ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The last time the Euro election was held on a date a few weeks after the local elections, the turnout was an abysmal 24%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    The media once again were desperate to big up no deal on Friday when anyone who knows the first thing about EU politics realized this was a manufactured drama .

    The Macron veto collapsed quicker than a badly made soufflé !

    The EU will never be the architects of a no deal . A no deal will have to be a UK decision.

    nico67 Macron confirmed. ;)
    Lmao !

    You see you need to follow me as I’m the Elysee Palace insider ! Macron was never going to veto regardless of the media hype .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    Hi William, I am a bit of a technophobe, how do you snapshot and post a tweet on here?
    You just need to get the direct link to the tweet (either from the browser or find 'copy link to tweet' on the one you want) and post it directly into here.

    It would look like this, but without the space:

    h ttps://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1116122240729403392
    Many thanks William.
    If I ever find the blighter who taught Scott how to do that.... :p
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20

    It's all happening tonight.
    Labor currently rated at 84% chance of winning.
    Although their current poll average is 52.6% on 2PP and 50.7% is required for a win (on uniform swing), so they don't have all that much margin for error during the campaign.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122
    So could the Coalition be a value bet?
    Maybe. We need a few more opinion polls.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    RobD said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    Hi William, I am a bit of a technophobe, how do you snapshot and post a tweet on here?
    You just need to get the direct link to the tweet (either from the browser or find 'copy link to tweet' on the one you want) and post it directly into here.

    It would look like this, but without the space:

    h ttps://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1116122240729403392
    Many thanks William.
    If I ever find the blighter who taught Scott how to do that.... :p
    ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    viewcode said:

    How does one go about forming a party and standing for the EP elections?

    What chance the Kick Jean-Claude Juncker Up The Arse Party?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited April 2019
    Suggested on R5L that Easter recess will be back on for next week.

    If correct, Commons will break up tomorrow and then not return until Tues 23 April.

    So, again if correct, absolutely nothing will be happening for next 12 days for starters.

    NB. Parliament website still shows business for next week.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Let’s cut through the jingoistic crap, Eagles.

    Are you now happy to admit that your endless drum banging of No Deal was wrong?

    I’ll say again for those who are hard of hearing:

    NO DEAL AIN’T HAPPENING.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    nico67 said:

    The media once again were desperate to big up no deal on Friday when anyone who knows the first thing about EU politics realized this was a manufactured drama .

    The Macron veto collapsed quicker than a badly made soufflé !

    The EU will never be the architects of a no deal . A no deal will have to be a UK decision.

    Spot on.

    The media and the PB No Deal Wallahs.

    Absolute rubbish.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    MikeL said:

    TMay 2019 exit has drifted a lot tonight.

    Earlier 1.08/1.10

    Now 1.13/1.19


    She is going nowhere.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    https://twitter.com/jjarichardson/status/1116023107293196290

    The hero we need, but not the one we deserve.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?

    Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.

    If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.

    A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.

    I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.

    The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
    This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.

    It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.

    I do wonder if Tory MPs aren't eventually going to support a binding referendum. Their base won't like it but it's better than slowly bleeding to death, and once you're into extensions with no hint of a resolution it gets easier for them to justify it as a way to make brexit happen, rather than a way of holding it up.
    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    eek said:

    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    I think it would be doable but if not then the solution is another extension. The 27 just agreed to two extensions based on an obviously-doomed plan and a hopeful smile, they'd definitely do another one for a plan with either the WA or Revoke at the end of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    Surely a compromise - France wanted June, Germany wanted Jan/March, so it's October

    Enough time for a referendum, if we want one.

    Not enough time for the Tories to install a new leader and for that person to do much damage, or try and head off toward a different Brexit, other than no deal or revoke.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    IanB2 said:

    Surely a compromise - France wanted June, Germany wanted Jan/March, so its October

    I'm not saying the whole thing was a pantomime, but if you wanted to grant the extension while retaining the credibility of the threat to refuse future extensions, this was a great way to do it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    And poor Mr Glenn. Almost. And perhaps maybe.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    MikeL said:

    TMay 2019 exit has drifted a lot tonight.

    Earlier 1.08/1.10

    Now 1.13/1.19

    But @TGOHF advised backing this year's exit at up to 1-100 earlier ?????
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    Remember the Japanese cyber security minister who had never used a computer ?

    A reminder we have not yet cornered the market in crap politicians:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47889356
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    I posted a few thoughts on Israel on the last thread but on an iPhone so can’t port it over.

    If anyone cares 😂

    An interesting item on Newsnight where someone suggested this proposed annexation of Palestinian land was illegal... "Not if you go back 3000 years" they replied.

    I'm torn between them being Sid and Doris or just plain bullies.

    Incidentally Your mate Benny Gantz is no better than Netanyahu.
    It is why their government spends so much on archaeology. Seriously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Surely a compromise - France wanted June, Germany wanted Jan/March, so its October

    I'm not saying the whole thing was a pantomime, but if you wanted to grant the extension while retaining the credibility of the threat to refuse future extensions, this was a great way to do it.
    It was always a pantomime in the sense that actually using the veto is like farting in the room as far as most EU leaders are concerned, and was never going to happen, as I have been saying here for ages. Their tradition is always to find a consensus. But I suspect Macron's posturing was for domestic consumption (although he argued a bit too strongly and now looks somewhat weak).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    I cannot see the Tories going to GE with Brexit hanging in the balance. So we'll just have to make do talking about Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    And what an exquisite torture kit for the Tories! Two sets of upcoming elections in which the people with most incentive to protest or stay at home are their own activists, desperate to topple Mrs M.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    _Anazina_ said:

    MikeL said:

    TMay 2019 exit has drifted a lot tonight.

    Earlier 1.08/1.10

    Now 1.13/1.19


    She is going nowhere.
    I've been tipping this for a while. As long as she makes it to October I'm up, and if she lasts until 2020 it's my 2nd biggest win.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Nigelb said:

    Remember the Japanese cyber security minister who had never used a computer ?

    A reminder we have not yet cornered the market in crap politicians:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47889356

    Can I give you the best political speech of all time

    https://twitter.com/bmadiba7/status/1115598302865645570
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    viewcode said:

    I've just realised. If this is true, @williamglenn loses his bet to @SeanT by two months.

    Wasn't the bet by June 2019? Or perhaps the terms changed?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rkrkrk said:

    viewcode said:

    I've just realised. If this is true, @williamglenn loses his bet to @SeanT by two months.

    Wasn't the bet by June 2019? Or perhaps the terms changed?
    The terms were end of the year I think.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    viewcode said:

    How does one go about forming a party and standing for the EP elections?

    What chance the Kick Jean-Claude Juncker Up The Arse Party?
    Gonna lose to the Kiss and make up party!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871


    rkrkrk said:

    viewcode said:

    I've just realised. If this is true, @williamglenn loses his bet to @SeanT by two months.

    Wasn't the bet by June 2019? Or perhaps the terms changed?
    The terms were end of the year I think.


    rkrkrk said:

    viewcode said:

    I've just realised. If this is true, @williamglenn loses his bet to @SeanT by two months.

    Wasn't the bet by June 2019? Or perhaps the terms changed?
    The terms were end of the year I think.
    31 Dec 2019, with a potential stewards' inquiry over GMTvCET averted, at least for now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    CNN :

    "Only a fool tries to predict how things will ultimately play out. But if the UK is still a member state on July 1, 2019, then it's no stretch of the imagination to see the whole thing being thrown out and taken back to square one. That could mean a new Prime Minister, a new direction for Britain post-Brexit, a resurgence of support for no deal, or even the scrapping of Brexit altogether. At that point it will be hard not to ask the question: What on earth has all this been for?"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    So, as expected, yet more can kicking was the result.

    Men in grey suits to kidnap the PM on her return from Brussels?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    AndyJS said:

    It would be ironic if the next major problem for the EU isn't anything to do with the UK specifically, but instead the results of the Euro Elections as a whole, if anti-EU parties win a heavy percentage of the seats.

    polling, such as it is shows the anti EU parties losing seats.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Has there ever been a UK political party leader who has trashed the brand of their party more than Theresa May? And yet, the muppets in her party that surround her, let her stay in place.
    I doubt the carnage the Tory party will experience in the forthcoming local elections will impact on her at all. After her 2017 election disaster, apart from Gavin Barwell, she did sod all for any of the poor mp's who lost their jobs due to her gross incompetence.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    How does one go about forming a party and standing for the EP elections?

    What chance the Kick Jean-Claude Juncker Up The Arse Party?
    Gonna lose to the Kiss and make up party!
    The Kiss Make-up Party stands more chance.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
    May's got zero political capital within the Tories right now. None of the top contenders actually want the job - so there is only one way to force the issue.
    The Labour excuse on the talks is now very real.
    A new leader can probably go to the country, May certainly can't - it would be seen as preposterous
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile Conservative freefall continues:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
    May's got zero political capital within the Tories right now. None of the top contenders actually want the job - so there is only one way to force the issue.
    The Labour excuse on the talks is now very real.
    A new leader can probably go to the country, May certainly can't - it would be seen as preposterous
    What does May think her role is - other than bed-blocking the possibility of Boris taking over? I mean, how bad would Boris have to have been to inflict a tenth of the damage on the Party she has done while keeping him from the levers of power?

    Theresa May has been an astonishingly bad PM. She has been an infinitely worse leader of the Conservative Party. Yet even more disastrous for the Party were the idiotic MPs who backed her in December. You're now going to lose your seats. And then have to watch them be occupied by a bunch of loons who think Venezeula is an economic model to follow.

    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Absolutely jiggered if I can see how this medium-length extension helps.

    It falls pretty much slap bang between the two sensible options of a very short extension focusing minds on a decision or a really long delay to allow for the Tories to finally decide that's enough May, get someone else in, GE, referendum, whatever.

    What is May actually going to DO with that time, other than spouting the same shite for another 6 months with no change to the result? Surely they asked her what her plan was...

    Absolutely hopeless on all sides - the EU have surely got this one wrong.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
    May's got zero political capital within the Tories right now. None of the top contenders actually want the job - so there is only one way to force the issue.
    The Labour excuse on the talks is now very real.
    A new leader can probably go to the country, May certainly can't - it would be seen as preposterous
    What does May think her role is - other than bed-blocking the possibility of Boris taking over? I mean, how bad would Boris have to have been to inflict a tenth of the damage on the Party she has done while keeping him from the levers of power?

    Theresa May has been an astonishingly bad PM. She has been an infinitely worse leader of the Conservative Party. Yet even more disastrous for the Party were the idiotic MPs who backed her in December. You're now going to lose your seats. And then have to watch them be occupied by a bunch of loons who think Venezeula is an economic model to follow.

    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
    It goes back further than December. After the 2017 general election debacle, the 1922 Committee banged their desks in support of the Prime Minister.

    Since even Jeremy Corbyn must know that Britain is not sitting on the world's largest oil field, I doubt he literally wants to copy Venezuela's economic model, even without the US sanctions everyone forgets about.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
    Hopefully it's like the agonizing pain just before a tooth extraction without anaesthetic .. before relief finally comes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
    Hopefully it's like the agonizing pain just before a tooth extraction without anaesthetic .. before relief finally comes.
    Like Randolf Churchill’s tumour, they’re going to throw away the benign bit.
  • May isn't quitting. She isn't done yet. Her plan is absolutely on track, no problems there, there will be a vote before May 22nd and she will WIN.

    When she announces that to the house today will her own side be openly howling her down? Then it will be "don't act before the locals" then it will be "don't act before the Euros".

    The beauty for Labour is that it's abundantly clear that the blockage is May. Yet the Tories won't remove her. Labour will not try and help them along.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    May isn't quitting. She isn't done yet. Her plan is absolutely on track, no problems there, there will be a vote before May 22nd and she will WIN.

    When she announces that to the house today will her own side be openly howling her down? Then it will be "don't act before the locals" then it will be "don't act before the Euros".

    The beauty for Labour is that it's abundantly clear that the blockage is May. Yet the Tories won't remove her. Labour will not try and help them along.

    A VONC now could be a win win for Labour. Get the likes of Francois to support May and consolidate her position or trigger a GE.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    edited April 2019
    RobD said:

    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
    I understand (hope?) Change UK and the LD's won't fight each other, but what about Brexit vs UKIP. Are they likely to stand against each other?

    Oh, and Good Morning everyone, on what seems a bright but cold Spring morning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    rkrkrk said:


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
    The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The hole the Tories have dug themselves into here is quite staggering, I don't see any route out. May resigning is probably the start - but she won't.

    They haven’t stopped digging yet. Right now the death cult is getting more potent.
    May's got zero political capital within the Tories right now. None of the top contenders actually want the job - so there is only one way to force the issue.
    The Labour excuse on the talks is now very real.
    A new leader can probably go to the country, May certainly can't - it would be seen as preposterous
    What does May think her role is - other than bed-blocking the possibility of Boris taking over? I mean, how bad would Boris have to have been to inflict a tenth of the damage on the Party she has done while keeping him from the levers of power?

    Theresa May has been an astonishingly bad PM. She has been an infinitely worse leader of the Conservative Party. Yet even more disastrous for the Party were the idiotic MPs who backed her in December. You're now going to lose your seats. And then have to watch them be occupied by a bunch of loons who think Venezeula is an economic model to follow.

    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.
    They don't have the bollox
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.

    Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.

    So nothing will change.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    I'm not a Halloween fan. Too much trick or treat nonsense. Guy Fawkes' Night is clearly superior.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    RobD said:

    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
    I can see why Umunna went for CHUK.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.

    Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.

    So nothing will change.

    A stint in opposition would be healthy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Jonathan said:

    There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.

    Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.

    So nothing will change.

    A stint in opposition would be healthy.
    So private Francois can lead us to defeat after defeat whole Corbyn destroys what's left of the economy.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2019
    Jonathan said:

    There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.

    Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.

    So nothing will change.

    A stint in opposition would be healthy.
    People said that about Labour in 2009. I'm not convinced that the period in opposition has been beneficial for Labour or the country.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Jonathan said:

    There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.

    Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.

    So nothing will change.

    A stint in opposition would be healthy.
    That’s where it will end.
This discussion has been closed.