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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    In other much happier news, I've become an uncle!

    Congratulations; is this your first experience of the role? Nephew or niece?
    Niece, and yes first experience being an uncle. I'm really excited!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Chris said:

    So apparently a failure to deliver Brexit has peeled off support to Brexit and UKIP and a failure to compromise has peeled off to CHUK. Seems like a microcosm of Brexit in Parliament to me.
    Why, oh why, didn't they call it the CHANGE UK ALLIANCE?
    Wait for the inevitable tie-up with the Lib Dems.
    I was rather hoping CHUK would form an alliance with my own party, the Union of Moderates United for a New Nation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:
    Well that didn't take long for Con to go under 30%!!!

    Has Theresa May resigned yet?

    You need Theresa. If she wasn't around the Conservatives would be well under 30%. Possibly under 20. It's not a Party anymore but a cult with some very weird ideas and members.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    alex. said:



    Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.

    Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?

    Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.

    Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?

    Good luck with that.
    The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
    Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.

    If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.

    Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.

    In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.

    Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.

    I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.

    Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.

    What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.
    Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.

    No Deal does not end uncertainty.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    alex. said:

    In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.

    Correct.
    Also of course it buggers any plans made for a crashout now. The man who stockpiled ten tons of cream cheese in case of delays at the ports - now he's got to use that, and then stockpile again in October, because no way will anything have changed by then. So he's spent money twice over.

    From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
    We must leave with no deal because John Bull decided to buy rather a lot of cream cheese.
    Who is the 'er' in your username? Yourself?

    The point is contingency plans can't just be reset in a cost free way. So for his business, crashout now is better than six more months of uncertainty AND a crashout.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Listening to David Davis on Today, tells you all you need to know about these idiots. Speaking about Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer he says 'AKK, her full German name is beyond me' . Just pathetic and gratuitous nonsense.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
    The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.
    So who would do any better?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?

    Good luck with that.
    The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
    Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.

    If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.

    Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.

    In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.

    Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.

    I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.

    Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.

    What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.
    Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.

    No Deal does not end uncertainty.

    It does to some degree, the terms of doing business will be set for at least 3-4 years. Unfavourable, yes, but not uncertain.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    Well done Theresa...

    Fake news. The Tories polled 29% with Populus in March 2015.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. 17, in Davis' defence, her name is tricky to pronounce and even the Germans have a nickname for her to avoid having to say it (I forget the nickname, alas).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    There’s no prospect of a solution to the Tories problems.

    Every wing of the party is convinced they’re not the ones causing the problem.

    So nothing will change.

    Indeed. And all other parties are, like May, in the 'compromise means you do what I want' position.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
    LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.

    The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave writh no deal.

    As @iSam said earlier on this thread: http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2283875/#Comment_2283875
    Maybe it’s just because I am one, but I reckon people are more furious than places where people talk party politics think
    Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.

    Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
    Err, nope.

    My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.

    "whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.

    Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.
    It’s not ad hominem, it’s an essential point. You can take an Olympian view of any tribulations Britain might suffer from no deal because you won’t suffer them directly. Meanwhile there are news reports that in the event of no deal Brexit there may be shortages of some anti-seizure medicines. My partner takes and needs anti-seizure medicines. The consequences are rather more immediate for me than for you.
    It certainly is essential and very much fair comment. Who can forget Archer AU, who posted several posts a day extolling the virtues of diamond hard Brexit from his permanent residence in eastern Queensland?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    alex. said:



    Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.

    Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?

    Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.

    Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.
    Equally, if I were a European leader keen on the idea of ever-closer union, I would really want to minimise the chances of the UK revoking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    In other much happier news, I've become an uncle!

    Congratulations; is this your first experience of the role? Nephew or niece?
    Niece, and yes first experience being an uncle. I'm really excited!
    Eh, it's not as much fun until they can talk.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2019
    Think of all the collateral damage being done by the Remainers. The SNP for one. What are they here for now? Scottish independence?

    They've spent three years nodding at "A major change like this can't be done by a simple majority, a two-thirds majority is needed." "You have to come together with the losers and get a consensus". "Referendums are no way to make such important and complicated decisions."

    Basically, they've spent three years poisoning the referendum well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    _Anazina_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
    The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.
    So who would do any better?
    Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Couple of lays to consider: An EU Ref in 2019 at 2.9. Corbyn next PM at 6.6. Buying money.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Roger said:

    You need Theresa. If she wasn't around the Conservatives would be well under 30%. Possibly under 20. It's not a Party anymore but a cult with some very weird ideas and members.

    We don't know that. A new leader, particularly one still facing Corbyn, could mean a fresh start and a honeymoon period.

    I've said before the next election will be one by whoever alienates the smallest number of their previous voters. If Corbyn is still there at the next election, or if his replacement is Pidcock or Long Bailey or Burgon, that could still be the Conservatives.

    They would still however be massacred at the following election if Labour got their act together.

    Equally, that is likely to be true of Labour if they scramble into power somehow.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Letwin destroyed the Tories in the late 80s with the Poll Tax (and you can trace the 1997 meltdown directly back to the fall of Thatcher in 1990) and he's done it again with Brexit.

    Yet still this moron is lauded by people in Con.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Chris said:

    alex. said:



    Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.

    Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?

    Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.

    Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.
    Equally, if I were a European leader keen on the idea of ever-closer union, I would really want to minimise the chances of the UK revoking.
    Maybe that's why Macron is the one being difficult?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    Well done Theresa...

    if the party had listened to her theyd not ne in this position. They were riding high while she had a chance of success.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    ydoethur said:

    Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).

    Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
    Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.

    If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.

    Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.

    In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.

    Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.

    I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.

    Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.

    What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.
    Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.

    No Deal does not end uncertainty.

    Partially agree. But it creates a very big reason to get everyone around the table to hammer out agreements in days rather than months - in the face of the short-term disruption.

    The current negotiations process, involving the various EU bodies, the UK executive and the UK legislature has clearly failed to produce a workable outcome, so another process is required.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
    The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.
    So who would do any better?
    Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking.
    GE, then?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited April 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
    Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.

    If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.

    Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.

    In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.

    Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.

    I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.

    Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.

    What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.
    Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.

    No Deal does not end uncertainty.

    Partially agree. But it creates a very big reason to get everyone around the table to hammer out agreements in days rather than months - in the face of the short-term disruption.

    The current negotiations process, involving the various EU bodies, the UK executive and the UK legislature has clearly failed to produce a workable outcome, so another process is required.
    Perhaps one where the UK Government negotiates and the Parliament ratifies, rather than the other way around? :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    Really dont see why theres not time to replace May well in advance of the new deadline . Shifting her is not simple but time for the spineless in cabinet to act on the basis she has no plan to reach consensus in the time to come. If they finally go en masse very hard for her.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
    The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.
    Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.
    What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
    The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.
    So who would do any better?
    Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking.
    One problem is, you have no idea how well people will do the job of PM until they're doing it. Theresa May, Arthur Balfour, Anthony Eden, Lord Rosebery, Herbert Asquith and Gordon Brown had all the necessary qualifications and experience to excel. Thatcher, Liverpool, Baldwin, and Blair did not. Yet who were the more successful PMs? Obviously the second group, certainly if we go by election results - the first group having a grand total of one electoral majority between them, the second boasting ten majorities of over 100.

    It's possible somebody could do better. But we won't know unless they're given a trial.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).

    Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.
    If you look at Corbyn's behaviour on Europe - he was pitiful during the campaign. But since then he has pretty much called everything about as right as such a complex issue allows. Even now he is probably the leavers best hope of coming up with a way out of the EU that does the least damage to the country.

    I'm too radicalised to care though. I am no longer prepared to settle for anything less than remain/rejoin.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    alex. said:

    In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.

    Correct.
    Also of course it buggers any plans made for a crashout now. The man who stockpiled ten tons of cream cheese in case of delays at the ports - now he's got to use that, and then stockpile again in October, because no way will anything have changed by then. So he's spent money twice over.

    From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
    Presumably he just doesnt buy any cream cheese for a couple of months, and runs down his stock.

    Lots a luvverly bargain cheesecakes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
    The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.
    Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.
    What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.
    Not so sure about the last point but I agree with the first one. No one thanked her or her position when they had leads yet now they've forced her to extend when she didn't want to it's all her?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    In other news, there is a council byelection in Edinburgh today. I have no idea who will win, but the branding is interesting

    https://twitter.com/MilesBriggsMSP/status/1116213098136985601
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kle4 said:

    Really dont see why theres not time to replace May well in advance of the new deadline . Shifting her is not simple but time for the spineless in cabinet to act on the basis she has no plan to reach consensus in the time to come. If they finally go en masse very hard for her.

    There's time. But what would it achieve? Whatever the latest ERG plan is won't pass parliament. So someone has to compromise with Labour. Which isn't exactly the ideal starting point for a Tory PM who wants to remain in power...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).

    Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.
    I don't trust his words - he's too fluent a liar for that - although oddly I do believe him when he says he voted Remain. As for his deeds, all he's done is blown with the wind. If he's right, that's purely fortuitous.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).

    Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.
    He is a no dealer who must in all circumstances avoid responsibity for it happening.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:


    The only possibilty of a fight-back is if she is told by 200+ of her MPs that she has to stand down. It can start with the mass resignations from Cabinet, once they get back from the Easter recess.

    Why not just wait until the first phase of Brexit is done before getting rid of her?
    There isn't a Brexit deal that unites the Tory party, so she was always going to need Labour votes. A new leader would have the same problem, but would have burned through even more time.
    The first stage of Brexit isn't going to happen whilst she is in place, that's why.
    So who would do any better?
    Doesnt matter. A gamble needs taking.
    GE, then?
    Ugh. Probably will happen but I was thinking the Tories need to gamble first and try to get her out and see if anyone can do better. Maybe not but she's adding nothing now.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.

    "whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.

    Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.

    IMO AS was indeed mainly elected for her party affiliation. But I don't think her views on Europe are especially unpopular in Broxtowe, which was narrowly split like the country with very little strong feeling (UKIP etc. have never done well there). Her problem is that quite a lot of people admire her for them, but not to the point of voting for her, while some of those who voted for her are annoyed.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    It may have already been mentioned but this 'extension' to Halloween enables loads of comparisons to the classics!

    Zombie Parliament with a government lead by Frankenstein's monster, Vampire EU sucking the blood from UK citizens, Mummified Farange rising from the dead. Even a few comparisons to the cult classic the Thing - monsters morphing out of normal looking people.

    loads of fun to be had here.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Just a genuine question: has anyone here done the BMG poll? How do they handle the new parties? Is there any introductory text explaining who Change UK and Brexit Party are, or are they just listed? In the former case it's a leading question, in the latter case it's a good result for them.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    GIN1138 said:

    Letwin destroyed the Tories in the late 80s with the Poll Tax (***and you can trace the 1997 meltdown directly back to the fall of Thatcher in 1990***) and he's done it again with Brexit.

    Yet still this moron is lauded by people in Con.

    You mean by the fact it didn't happen in 1992?! :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    alex. said:



    Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.

    Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?

    Which is indeed why there is no reason to believe them.

    Don't overlook the fact that the EU blinked yesterday. An extension to UK membership was agreed, without any attempt to impose conditions. That reflects the concern of the 27 EU states at the prospect of the UK leaving without having our hands tied first for the negotiations that would follow.
    Indeed. The EU have massively overplayed their hand in the negotiations, and now try and blame the UK PM for her failure to carry the supplicantary deal through her own Parliament.

    TM has of course failed and needs to go, mainly for spending two years saying that no deal was better than a bad deal - while doing almost nothing to actually prepare for that eventuality.

    The huge advantage of no-deal now would be that the negotiations would become more equal, with both sides keen to resolve ongoing disruption.

    Anyway, work won't do itself. Laters.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    The Conservatives remain favourites for most seats at the next election. I’ve always found that a stretch and it now looks baffling to me.

    That Britain Elects poll gives the Tories most seats on 29%.
    Of course, with swings and changes like this, all models break down, but FPTP is incredibly kind to the Big Two and incredibly unpleasant to anyone else.

    It's sort of the point of FPTP, really.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Blue_rog said:

    It may have already been mentioned but this 'extension' to Halloween enables loads of comparisons to the classics!

    Zombie Parliament with a government lead by Frankenstein's monster, Vampire EU sucking the blood from UK citizens, Mummified Farange rising from the dead. Even a few comparisons to the cult classic the Thing - monsters morphing out of normal looking people.

    loads of fun to be had here.

    I think the only thing to do is get well lit on Hallowe'en so that we can face the new world with spirit.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:


    My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.

    "whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.

    Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.

    IMO AS was indeed mainly elected for her party affiliation. But I don't think her views on Europe are especially unpopular in Broxtowe, which was narrowly split like the country with very little strong feeling (UKIP etc. have never done well there). Her problem is that quite a lot of people admire her for them, but not to the point of voting for her, while some of those who voted for her are annoyed.
    That's fair comment. Labour would likely have won the seat though, if the pro-Brexit residents of Broxtowe had voted for a different party or stayed at home.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    And I will need to check the 'use by' dates on a whole stack of stockpiled food.
    Yes. I'd better break out the box tomorrow and circulate it back into the regular food supplies. (I'm not kidding - some of the end dates are August, so no good there)

    We'll be eating Fray Bentos pies for a week now.
    eek said:

    So, assuming the PM accepts the proposals, where does that leave us?

    Well, I can't see anything other than a summer of nothing. Labour will break off talks immediately as the deadline is now more than six months away. No changes will be made to the withdrawal agreement, so the 25 or so hardcore nutter ERG members won't change their tune. Neither will the 5-10 hardcore Grieve nutters who now see victory ahead. So the WA is still dead as a Dodo.

    If I was guessing, I'd bet everyone in Parliament breathes a huge sigh of relief, and then... oh my, is that the time... nearly Easter. Off for a long jolly, followed by May Day bank holiday, half term, Whit and then its the summer recess. Back in September for Conferences were we can shout at how crap the other lot(s) are, before its October and we end up back were we started.

    A mad panic to try and agree something at the last minute, with a possible further can kick.

    I delay for delay's sake (and this is what this is) is pointless.

    The only way out is possibly a 'Electoral event' (either a GE, or 2nd Referendum) as our Parliament has clearly failed to do what it is both paid and elected to do.
    This may not help matters, we could end up with another hung Parliament, or a very close 51:49 result (on whatever question, and whatever way) but I think having a vote on something is now the only way forward.

    It's clear our elected representatives have failed us. We either need to make their decision for them, or get a new representative that won't fail.

    I do wonder if Tory MPs aren't eventually going to support a binding referendum. Their base won't like it but it's better than slowly bleeding to death, and once you're into extensions with no hint of a resolution it gets easier for them to justify it as a way to make brexit happen, rather than a way of holding it up.
    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months
    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).

    Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.
    I don't trust his words - he's too fluent a liar for that - although oddly I do believe him when he says he voted Remain. As for his deeds, all he's done is blown with the wind. If he's right, that's purely fortuitous.
    The bill passed by one vote!
    And I don't doubt that if he had personally proposed the bill it would have failed, at least one Tory MP would have rejected that. So he could have ensured No Deal without the blame.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?

    Good luck with that.
    The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
    Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.

    If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.

    Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.

    In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.

    Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.

    I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.

    Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.

    What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty.
    Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.

    No Deal does not end uncertainty.

    It does to some degree, the terms of doing business will be set for at least 3-4 years. Unfavourable, yes, but not uncertain.
    With people scrabbling around all the while to make any deal they can and hence not at all certain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    edited April 2019

    Just a genuine question: has anyone here done the BMG poll? How do they handle the new parties? Is there any introductory text explaining who Change UK and Brexit Party are, or are they just listed? In the former case it's a leading question, in the latter case it's a good result for them.

    I think it's misleading giving changes between polls that exclude Change and Brexit and those that include them.

    Without the two, the Conservatives are on 35% (-4%) and Labour on 34% (unchanged).

    You could add Change to the Lib Dem score, and Brexit to the UKIP score, but I don't think their votes necessarily transfer between each other.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).

    Corbyn has refuted this in word and deed. He backed the Cooper Letwin amendment which staved off no deal.
    I don't trust his words - he's too fluent a liar for that - although oddly I do believe him when he says he voted Remain. As for his deeds, all he's done is blown with the wind. If he's right, that's purely fortuitous.
    The bill passed by one vote!
    And I don't doubt that if he had personally proposed the bill it would have failed, at least one Tory MP would have rejected that. So he could have ensured No Deal without the blame.
    Yes, but almost all of Labour voted for it. All his career, Corbyn has done whatever he thinks will make him popular with his target constituency. Right now, that's the Labour backbenchers and working class labour voters. So he has to not rule out a second referendum to appease the former, and somehow keep Brexit on track to appease the latter. I agree, insofar as he has developed a position to do both, he's done it well. But don't confuse naked opportunism for strategy.

    I have work to do. Have a good morning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.

    There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.

    But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019

    What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.

    There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.

    But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.

    What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader? :D
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?

    I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    MaxPB said:

    In other much happier news, I've become an uncle!

    Congratulations.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    GIN1138 said:

    Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    Well done Theresa...

    Fake news. The Tories polled 29% with Populus in March 2015.
    A lot of polls in 2013/14 had the Conservatives on under 30%, for much the same reason as now - UKIP were polling double figures (as do UKIP and Brexit combined).

    Labour, however, were polling a good deal better at that point.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Whilst polling could be described as somewhat volatile right now, how depressing that the friggin Tommy Robinson triple ripple dogshit party could score 18%. The Tories are doing their best to create a dystopia. I'm actually quite hopeful this will break them and the idiotic corbynites and we get realignment.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2019
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
    The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.
    Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.
    What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.
    She sold it really badly. Everything about the deal was negative which put the backs up of Remainers. It was sold as the hardest of hard Brexits to appeal to her lunatic fringe which it wasn't but it gave the middle ground a reason to fight it.
  • Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Last time Con was under 30% in an opinion poll was 26th September 2005 when MORI had them on 29%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    Well done Theresa...

    Fake news. The Tories polled 29% with Populus in March 2015.
    A lot of polls in 2013/14 had the Conservatives on under 30%, for much the same reason as now - UKIP were polling double figures (as do UKIP and Brexit combined).

    Labour, however, were polling a good deal better at that point.
    Indeed.

    Just a shame GIN was peddling fake polling news.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.

    Have you really been stockpiling food?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2019
    I'm not keen on a General Election.

    Although the Tories deserve some kicking, I can't decide who to vote for. There's no honest party. The LDs are honest but arrogant. We know better than the people. UKIP/Brexit keep transmogrifying - who knows what they'll be tomorrow.

    The Greens are barmy.

    Labour is two parties still; my local MP slavishly follows orders to block Brexit. Caroline Flint would be a nice alternative, or Frank Field if he's not in his dotage yet, but they're standing elsewhere. The SNP are busily kicking themselves in the b*llocks, even if I were Scottish.

    I'll just have to accept they're all a bunch of lying cnuts, but no one takes a spoilt ballot seriously.

    Dear Marge (I'm somewhat long in the tooth), what should I do?


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Sean_F said:

    Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.

    Have you really been stockpiling food?
    yep. lots. and bottled water.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Sean_F said:

    Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.

    Have you really been stockpiling food?
    Mrs Eek has - not much but a week or so more than we would usually have.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    GIN1138 said:

    What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.

    There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.

    But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.

    What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader? :D
    I ignore sell by and use by dates. I still have dried pasta from my Mamma’s larder and she died some time ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Blue_rog said:

    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?

    I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.
    I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.

    I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.

    Have you really been stockpiling food?
    yep. lots. and bottled water.
    Why? Insofar as there could be any interruption to supplies, it would be to seasonal vegetables and fruit, which are not things you can stockpile.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.
    What do we want? Brexit!
    What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Sean_F said:

    Likewise with the stockpiled food. Lot of July/August stuff. Still a minor inconvenience compared to No Deal on friday.

    Have you really been stockpiling food?
    yep. lots. and bottled water.
    Good Brie and Evian. Survival rations.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    CD13 said:

    I'm not keen on a General Election.




    Nor am I. There is literally no point voting in my constituency. A referendum, on the other hand ........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.

    There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.

    But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.

    What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader? :D
    I ignore sell by and use by dates. I still have dried pasta from my Mamma’s larder and she died some time ago.
    Yeh, I agree. Certainly stuff like pasta should be ok for ages. I have a lot of tins, I reckon most of that will be ok for years.

    We drink a lot of soya milk, so plenty of that in and that has a shorter life, maybe six months. I will need to check.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Sean_F said:

    Blue_rog said:

    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?

    I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.
    I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.

    I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.
    Greens to keep their three or four seats?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.
    What do we want? Brexit!
    What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
    It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.

    The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited April 2019
    Cyclefree said:


    eek said:


    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
    The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

    So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    Blue_rog said:

    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?

    I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.
    I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.

    I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.
    Greens to keep their three or four seats?
    Change might eat into their support. There's a real risk that absent a combined slate, the Lib Dems, Greens, and Change could be polling 6-8% each per region, and get nothing due to vote-shredding.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    isam said:

    isam said:

    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.
    What do we want? Brexit!
    What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
    It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’
    Come off it, Sam. Surely you’d agree that if they took your suggestion of starting with BINO, other Brexiteers would call it a stitch up. The problem is that there is nothing deliverable that has a consensus behind it.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Rotten

    You

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What excellent news. We will not be No Dealing at end of this week.

    There is a good chance now that May will be visited by grey suits, probably after the May locals and the six months extension will be wasted in a leadership contest.

    But at least my wife need not worry about meds until October.

    What on earth will you do with all the goods you've been stockpiling? Will you become an ebay trader? :D
    I ignore sell by and use by dates. I still have dried pasta from my Mamma’s larder and she died some time ago.
    Yeh, I agree. Certainly stuff like pasta should be ok for ages. I have a lot of tins, I reckon most of that will be ok for years.

    We drink a lot of soya milk, so plenty of that in and that has a shorter life, maybe six months. I will need to check.
    Rotten, you are kidding me? Tell me you didn’t really get drawn in by the stockpiling hyperbole?

    For the hard of hearing: NO DEAL AIN’T HAPPENING
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Blue_rog said:

    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?

    I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.
    I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.

    I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.
    Greens to keep their three or four seats?
    Change might eat into their support. There's a real risk that absent a combined slate, the Lib Dems, Greens, and Change could be polling 6-8% each per region, and get nothing due to vote-shredding.
    Yep the none Labour remain vote needs a clear single slate to vote for.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.

    The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.
    Quite. And its not like there aren't alternatives

    There's getting extra in in case of short term difficulty and there's prepping for apocalypse. Brexit ain't the latter
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Sean_F said:

    Blue_rog said:

    At a fairly micro level, what do PBers see happening over the coming days and weeks?

    I'm not sure TM's heart is now in avoiding the EU elections... would they have reinstated the Easter holidays if she was keen on pushing something through? Does she even expect to be around long enough to mind either way? That said, putting a few miles between 500 people who want rid of her probably isn't a bad tactical shout either.

    In short, where does the movement come on Deal/AN Other solution - especially now the deadline has been removed (and one can only assume could shift again once we had MEPs in place)?

    I think that if Farange's party does reasonably well in the locals and attracts more contributions then we'll see a much higher profile from him. This could lead to quite a boost in the polls for the EU elections. Can't see the same for CHUK's party.
    I don't think the Brexit Party are fielding any candidates in the local elections. I think they'll get 10% + in the Euros, which will give them a seat in all the English regions, apart from the North East, and London.

    I think UKIP will get a pretty high vote per candidate in this round of local elections, but will still win fewer seats than in 2015; the Lib Dems will probably do well, as (in various localities) will local independents. The Conservatives will lose several hundred seats, but will be spared worse by the shortage of major party opposition. Labour will gain, but their results will be fairly mediocre.
    I think I've seen some local candidates across the northern part of England.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:


    eek said:


    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
    The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

    So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
    It would be better to push it back to February and hope for a cold winter.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.
    What do we want? Brexit!
    What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
    It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’
    Come off it, Sam. Surely you’d agree that if they took your suggestion of starting with BINO, other Brexiteers would call it a stitch up. The problem is that there is nothing deliverable that has a consensus behind it.
    The general public would not have been irate if Mays Deal had been agreed by cabinet and signed off. The whole palava is down to Grieve getting people he knew would try and overturn the people’s vote to have the final say.

    The whole point was this was never meant to be about politicians
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sandpit said:

    The huge advantage of no-deal now would be that the negotiations would become more equal, with both sides keen to resolve ongoing disruption.

    "We hold all the cards" has mutated!
  • eek said:

    Cyclefree said:


    eek said:


    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
    The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

    So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
    It would be better to push it back to February and hope for a cold winter.
    Not funny.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:


    eek said:


    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
    The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

    So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
    As they appear to be set on an Easter break, such precipitate behaviour would seem out of character...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871
    The worst possible outcome for the UK. How could our politicians choose anything else? Its catnip to them. More months of uncertainty, not knowing what the rules are going to be, whether we are actually going to leave or not, it is just madness.

    Who is going to invest in the UK in these 6 months? Who is going to invest in export capacity focused on the EU? Are we really going to put up with May's non negotiating negotiation for that long? Honestly, revoke would have been better than this.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded? :o
    The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.
    Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.
    What has caused the collapse is failure to leave, not disagreement with the terms of departure. ERG claims that they are/were motivated partly by electoral reasons are hollow. Had we left on March 29th under May’s deal the Brexit vote would be firmly behind the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Labour would be splintering into about 6 pieces.
    She sold it really badly. Everything about the deal was negative which put the backs up of Remainers. It was sold as the hardest of hard Brexits to appeal to her lunatic fringe which it wasn't but it gave the middle ground a reason to fight it.
    I think your rosé tinted glasses and affecting your judgement. If it were sold as the hardest of hard brexits then the would have supported it. Unfortunately May is apologetic in a British way and failed to sell it as the compromise it was. She highlighted her red lines rather than explaining why it was a compromise.

    The real difficulty for May is that she has to get 300+ votes from around 450 who might vote for the deal - the rest either openly want to revoke, or remain via a further referendum ( I’ve still not met anyone who voted Leave who wants a second referendum). So in effect she is trying to get a super majority of 2/3rds for a compromise deal which no one likes but maybe most could live with. That is difficult for anyone no matter how competent.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:


    eek said:


    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
    The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

    So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
    In normal times. But these aren’t normal times so I’m sure the process could be expedited.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    The fact we are where we are and most people on here don’t think of it as the most incredible parliamentary stitch up is amazing.
    What do we want? Brexit!
    What type of Brexit do we want? Er.
    It’s the public that want Brexit and the politicians saying ‘Er’
    Come off it, Sam. Surely you’d agree that if they took your suggestion of starting with BINO, other Brexiteers would call it a stitch up. The problem is that there is nothing deliverable that has a consensus behind it.
    The general public would not have been irate if Mays Deal had been agreed by cabinet and signed off. The whole palava is down to Grieve getting people he knew would try and overturn the people’s vote to have the final say.

    The whole point was this was never meant to be about politicians
    Sam did you answer (apologies you may have) the question as to whether from here, from this point on, would you prefer to or be happy to have a "no deal"?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Sean_F said:

    Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.

    The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.
    Quite. And its not like there aren't alternatives

    There's getting extra in in case of short term difficulty and there's prepping for apocalypse. Brexit ain't the latter
    Some people think Mad Max is a documentary.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:
    Well that didn't take long for Con to go under 30%!!!

    Has Theresa May resigned yet?

    The 'change' figures are misleading here in that the earlier poll did NOT include TIG.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:


    eek said:


    I don’t think there is enough time for us to have a referendum by the end of October. No I may be wrong but even setting the question takes a few months

    Of course there is. Our MPs just need to take their collective fingers out of their arses and get on with it. But as they couldn’t run a bath without getting the coast guard involved .......
    The minimum time is 24 weeks see https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

    So given it's April now unless we voted for it tomorrow it's unlikely we could have a referendum in time although that could be a justification to delay things until December while holding it in November.
    As they appear to be set on an Easter break, such precipitate behaviour would seem out of character...
    I actually think they need a break. Go back to the constituencies and find out what people think outside the Bubble.
  • CD13 said:

    I'm not keen on a General Election.

    Although the Tories deserve some kicking, I can't decide who to vote for. There's no honest party. The LDs are honest but arrogant. We know better than the people. UKIP/Brexit keep transmogrifying - who knows what they'll be tomorrow.

    The Greens are barmy.

    Labour is two parties still; my local MP slavishly follows orders to block Brexit. Caroline Flint would be a nice alternative, or Frank Field if he's not in his dotage yet, but they're standing elsewhere. The SNP are busily kicking themselves in the b*llocks, even if I were Scottish.

    I'll just have to accept they're all a bunch of lying cnuts, but no one takes a spoilt ballot seriously.

    Dear Marge (I'm somewhat long in the tooth), what should I do?


    Might I suggest you have a look at the Candidates rather than the Parties and decide accordingly. It's what I've tended to do more recently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    CD13 said:

    See, I told you so, allowing MPs to grandstand and bring in party politics was never going to work.


    MPs: We'll leave the decision to you.
    Public: A massive turnout and a decision made.
    MPs: We need to be involved and make the final decision.
    MPs: We can't make a final decision, we need a new referendum.

    MPs:....but we reserve the right to fuck about if they AGAIN have the temerity to come back with an answer we don't like.

    What has become clear since June 2016 is that MPs REALLY don't like democracy.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Stockpiling bottled water is a bit post apocalyptic isn't it?! It's not like Brexit will cause the water supply to cut out, it's not a war. Frankly if Britain can't keep the taps running in peacetime then stockpiling is the least of your worries.

    The oddest is stockpiling lavatory paper. I wouldn't have thought that would be hard to produce and distribute locally.
    Quite. And its not like there aren't alternatives

    There's getting extra in in case of short term difficulty and there's prepping for apocalypse. Brexit ain't the latter
    Some people think Mad Max is a documentary.
    I don’t think I’ve met e leaver who is stock piling, but have heard several comments from staunch remainers about stockpiling. As my other half is already a hoarder we have full cupboards and freezers anyway, but it would be interesting to see who is right. Shelagh Fogarty on LBC keeps on banging on about lettuce being from the EU and every time she says it I think we’ll I guess I won’t have lettuce for a few weeks - it doesn’t send me into a panic.
This discussion has been closed.