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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

BREAKING: EU leaders have agreed a delay to Brexit until 31 October, with a review in June, according to EU diplomats.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I confess, I am lost. Is 31st Oct what May wants or not?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    So we have six months to sort ourselves out.

    That starts with Cabinet telling Theresa May tomorrow that times up and getting a new Con leader/PM followed by a general election in July.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    10% - not bad pre launch. Poor for the Cuks mind you.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    rottenborough said:

    I confess, I am lost. Is 31st Oct what May wants or not?

    I think the 31st Oct date comes with the "escape hatch" of an earlier exit date if a deal is ratified before then. So that will give her enough room to claim she still "intends" for us to be out much sooner.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    GIN1138 said:

    So we have six months to sort ourselves out.

    That starts with Cabinet telling Theresa May tomorrow that times up and getting a new Con leader/PM followed by a general election in July.

    Doesn't work if the Oct deadline is the flexi one in which we can cut it short, if we all agree something.

    That means May goes home tonight preparing to bring MV4 to Commons after Easter.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Time for Labour to bring out the old VONC?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Danny565 said:

    rottenborough said:

    I confess, I am lost. Is 31st Oct what May wants or not?

    I think the 31st Oct date comes with the "escape hatch" of an earlier exit date if a deal is ratified before then. So that will give her enough room to claim she still "intends" for us to be out much sooner.
    :+1: Yep. My mistake.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    rottenborough said:

    I confess, I am lost. Is 31st Oct what May wants or not?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fE0UrDWZGAk
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Classic EU fudge going for Oct 31.

    It's got to be an election now as at least a starting point to break the deadlock. If we return a parliament just as messed up then so be it, the stalemate continues until the next extension.

    Unless May decides a people's vote on her deal vs remain is the least worst option (which it is, for her, but she's so far been to stubborn to see it)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    GIN1138 said:

    So we have six months to sort ourselves out.

    That starts with Cabinet telling Theresa May tomorrow that times up and getting a new Con leader/PM followed by a general election in July.

    Sure. Why not. Why the heck not.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny565 said:

    rottenborough said:

    I confess, I am lost. Is 31st Oct what May wants or not?

    I think the 31st Oct date comes with the "escape hatch" of an earlier exit date if a deal is ratified before then. So that will give her enough room to claim she still "intends" for us to be out much sooner.
    Danny565 said:

    rottenborough said:

    I confess, I am lost. Is 31st Oct what May wants or not?

    I think the 31st Oct date comes with the "escape hatch" of an earlier exit date if a deal is ratified before then. So that will give her enough room to claim she still "intends" for us to be out much sooner.
    Not for long - the election deadline is just round the corner.

    Vote for your MEP - who will sit for well who knows.

    What a farce.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Get ready for the trick or treat summit in October.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1116109919722397697
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    williamglenn said:

    Get ready for the trick or treat summit in October.

    There will be fudge.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Jonathan said:

    Time for Labour to bring out the old VONC?

    Which way would the ERG vote?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nunuone said:

    Jonathan said:

    Time for Labour to bring out the old VONC?

    Which way would the ERG vote?
    Who the feck knows. Seeing as they can't sit on a toilet the right way around.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2019
    French surrender! This is wonderful, turns a humiliation into a triumphant victory. Spirit of Dunkirk etc etc
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TGOHF said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    10% - not bad pre launch. Poor for the Cuks mind you.
    Although I don't think Labour are going to come within sniffing distance of 38%, I do think it would be amusing (and not at all impossible) if both them and the Tories increase their votes compared to their abysmal showings in 2014, contrary to the media narrative.

    The Cuk Tiggers have been polling poorly ever since those first two YouGov polls back when they first launched. I've got no idea why anyone would expect them to do anything in a European election, where they won't even have the (limited) personal votes of their MPs to help them out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    'I'm starting to think the Maybot is running on a ZX Spectrum - it has such a limited vocabulary at any one time, which it just keeps repeating in almost random order?"

    That's very funny from Prof Talbot and painfully accurate. She's rapidly turning into Max Headroom.


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited April 2019
    nunuone said:

    Jonathan said:

    Time for Labour to bring out the old VONC?

    Which way would the ERG vote?
    Quite. Win win for Labour. They either bring the govt down or better still bind them to May.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,239
    Recidivist said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So we have six months to sort ourselves out.

    That starts with Cabinet telling Theresa May tomorrow that times up and getting a new Con leader/PM followed by a general election in July.

    Sure. Why not. Why the heck not.
    Jeremy Hunt is clearly not up for it.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1116109064180781058?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1116109939687284736
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    John Whittingdale endorses Boris for PM live on Peston


    Interestingly Ian Dale was praising Boris on Newnight tonight as well...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1116109939687284736

    So, the next step is she says 'No'?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Nigelb said:

    Recidivist said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So we have six months to sort ourselves out.

    That starts with Cabinet telling Theresa May tomorrow that times up and getting a new Con leader/PM followed by a general election in July.

    Sure. Why not. Why the heck not.
    Jeremy Hunt is clearly not up for it.

    Not up for it? Not up to it more like. :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So nothing will happen until end of October - all interim deadlines will go by with no progress - no doubt the talks with Lab will be over by the weekend with nothing decided. 6 more months of stasis.

    What a shower.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
    Neither can I. But I didn't see them getting 40% in 2017 either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    And I will need to check the 'use by' dates on a whole stack of stockpiled food.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    That's a result that many people can live with. Perhaps the only such result.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    TGOHF said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    10% - not bad pre launch. Poor for the Cuks mind you.
    Farage was waiting for the official extension, now he has the confirmation and Brexit officially delayed again he will almost certainly officially launch the Brexit Party early next week to capitilise on Leavers' fury
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    TGOHF said:

    So nothing will happen until end of October - all interim deadlines will go by with no progress - no doubt the talks with Lab will be over by the weekend with nothing decided. 6 more months of stasis.

    What a shower.

    Yeh, but MPs can have the whole summer off on holiday - I mean doing constituency business.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    "Nick Gutteridge
    (@nick_gutteridge)
    So a compromise has been reached. Extension to Oct 31, with a review point in June where UK's compliance with conditions (especially holding EU elections) can be checked. Macron, who stood starkly alone for much of the discussion, has lost some respect among EU diplomats tonight.

    April 10, 2019"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/apr/10/brexit-eu-to-decide-on-uk-extension-live-news
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    Time for Labour to add Official Remain Party to their title and they'd clean up. The Leavers have been routed. The dogs have barked and the caravans have moved on.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21

    Perhaps it was a stitch-up between TM and the EU27.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    Probably. It's working.

    So, do Labour and the Tories give it til Friday to say no agreement can be reached or do they just do so tomorrow?

    Not being cynical or anything, but none of the Brexit dilemmas actually seem very complicated, just difficult, so I really don't see what about the discussions, at this point, takes so long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1116108143111626754?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,239
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Recidivist said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So we have six months to sort ourselves out.

    That starts with Cabinet telling Theresa May tomorrow that times up and getting a new Con leader/PM followed by a general election in July.

    Sure. Why not. Why the heck not.
    Jeremy Hunt is clearly not up for it.

    Not up for it? Not up to it more like. :D
    Evidently both.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21

    Perhaps it was a stitch-up between TM and the EU27.
    No way that May will be allowed to go on into the Autumn (past party conference) surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1116109939687284736?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
    Why not? They're the Remain party as far as most members and supporters are concerned, no matter that the leadership is playing it cooler than that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nunuone said:

    Jonathan said:

    Time for Labour to bring out the old VONC?

    Which way would the ERG vote?
    Well, even talking to May is near treasonous in their eyes, surely they could not possibly vote with Corbyn on anything. Oh wait, they already have. And some of them have even threatened to do so in a VONC. Never mind then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1116112734330945537?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1116113102565773312?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    Didn't someone suggest that 8% is about the worst possible result as far as the LDs are concerned in that it's enough to possibly seem them just miss out on seats in most regions? ChUK's influence I guess.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    Probably. It's working.

    So, do Labour and the Tories give it til Friday to say no agreement can be reached or do they just do so tomorrow?

    Not being cynical or anything, but none of the Brexit dilemmas actually seem very complicated, just difficult, so I really don't see what about the discussions, at this point, takes so long.
    All the Brexit options - revoke, new referendum, blind Brexit deal, Vassal State, No Deal - are poor. They all have negative political consequences for anyone associated with them. Therefore best hold off doing anything specific.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
    Why not? They're the Remain party as far as most members and supporters are concerned, no matter that the leadership is playing it cooler than that.
    Personally I don’t see Remainers turning out when they are getting their own way as things are. Us not having left & now having a further 6 month extension is like them copping a 100/1 shot.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1116113102565773312?s=20

    Leave EU is really losing it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Roger said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    Time for Labour to add Official Remain Party to their title and they'd clean up. The Leavers have been routed. The dogs have barked and the caravans have moved on.
    UKIP desperately needs to form an electoral alliance with the Brexit party! ;-)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I posted a few thoughts on Israel on the last thread but on an iPhone so can’t port it over.

    If anyone cares 😂
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mays speech to conference - lololol..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    Probably. It's working.

    So, do Labour and the Tories give it til Friday to say no agreement can be reached or do they just do so tomorrow?

    Not being cynical or anything, but none of the Brexit dilemmas actually seem very complicated, just difficult, so I really don't see what about the discussions, at this point, takes so long.
    March 29 was the Rubicon . Once that was crossed ,no other deadline existed in a real sense .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1116113102565773312?s=20

    They're almost delirious, they seem to have missed why May had to ask for an extension, and it was nothing to do with being gutless. It was because she's crap, and nothing was agreed for her to ask for! Sometimes I wonder how much some sides actually believe of what they say, and sadly the answer is probably all of it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    It seems to me we will have enough time for a 2nd ref or a general election, or to renegotiate the deal with different red lines.

    So we'll probably just reject the current deal 17 more times in the Commons and do the same dance again in 6 months.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21

    Perhaps it was a stitch-up between TM and the EU27.
    No way that May will be allowed to go on into the Autumn (past party conference) surely?
    There was no way she'd be allowed to get past last Christmas!

    My initial reaction is somewhat similar to Anne McElvoy's. This is not a long enough delay for a leadership contest plus GE, and probably not for a referendum, but it's too long to force the issue now. If I were a betting man* I'd be wondering about the odds on a further extension.

    * As opposed to an investor in the political betting markets.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21

    Nah if Theresa triggers a Con leadership contest tomorrow or Friday the PCP can have the final two sorted out by last week of April.

    Members ballot can be done by last week of May and a new Con leader could be in place by 1st June.

    Leaves July clear for a GE.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    I posted a few thoughts on Israel on the last thread but on an iPhone so can’t port it over.

    If anyone cares 😂

    You can via screenshot... but be ready to face flak 🤭
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited April 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21

    Perhaps it was a stitch-up between TM and the EU27.
    No way that May will be allowed to go on into the Autumn (past party conference) surely?
    There was no way she'd be allowed to get past last Christmas!

    My initial reaction is somewhat similar to Anne McElvoy's. This is not a long enough delay for a leadership contest plus GE, and probably not for a referendum, but it's too long to force the issue now. If I were a betting man* I'd be wondering about the odds on a further extension.

    * As opposed to an investor in the political betting markets.
    Forget the leadership election, we don’t need it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
    Why not? They're the Remain party as far as most members and supporters are concerned, no matter that the leadership is playing it cooler than that.
    Personally I don’t see Remainers turning out when they are getting their own way as things are. Us not having left & now having a further 6 month extension is like them copping a 100/1 shot.
    Remain itself has not been assured yet, though it is looking very rosy indeed. Turning out in force for pro-EU parties has a purpose in keeping up the momentum. There's a non zero chance furious Brexiteers turn out too, but I just don't see the mood music for that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1116113102565773312?s=20

    Is it me or does that (pretend) article reek of National Socialism?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    Didn't someone suggest that 8% is about the worst possible result as far as the LDs are concerned in that it's enough to possibly seem them just miss out on seats in most regions? ChUK's influence I guess.
    I suppose it implies pretty much a clean sweep by Lab and Con in England, apart from the largest region (South East).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1116111171906691074?s=21

    Perhaps it was a stitch-up between TM and the EU27.
    No way that May will be allowed to go on into the Autumn (past party conference) surely?
    There seems plenty of time for a leadership election before then, and no reason not to hold one given there's no incentive for MV3/4 to pass or Labour to agree a deal. Granted there is still the issue of actually getting May to stand down or changing the rules to make her stand down, or having the courage to VONC, but I really struggle to see what good or even neutral thing is accomplished by her staying in post.

    My poor colleagues in Elections are quite dispirited, they are convinced parliamentarians have now seen to it, intentionally or not, to have the EPs, a GE, then a referendum, all this year and all on different dates.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edmundintokyo said:

    French surrender! This is wonderful, turns a humiliation into a triumphant victory. Spirit of Dunkirk etc etc

    They chose 31 October for its proximity to the 25th, just to rub the Frenchies' noses in it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
    Why not? They're the Remain party as far as most members and supporters are concerned, no matter that the leadership is playing it cooler than that.
    Personally I don’t see Remainers turning out when they are getting their own way as things are. Us not having left & now having a further 6 month extension is like them copping a 100/1 shot.
    Remain itself has not been assured yet, though it is looking very rosy indeed. Turning out in force for pro-EU parties has a purpose in keeping up the momentum. There's a non zero chance furious Brexiteers turn out too, but I just don't see the mood music for that.
    Maybe it’s just because I am one, but I reckon people are more furious than places where people talk party politics think
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1116113102565773312?s=20

    Is it me or does that (pretend) article reek of National Socialism?
    This was how they reported Macron winning the presidency.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/861307433829924866
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kle4 said:

    nunuone said:

    Jonathan said:

    Time for Labour to bring out the old VONC?

    Which way would the ERG vote?
    Well, even talking to May is near treasonous in their eyes, surely they could not possibly vote with Corbyn on anything. Oh wait, they already have. And some of them have even threatened to do so in a VONC. Never mind then.
    Just noticed I put May not Corbyn as the fifth word, and yet it still holds up as a sentence given the views of the hardcore ERG.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    FFS What a shambles. This is an AFL can kick.Brexit will die of boredom .

    Probably. It's working.

    So, do Labour and the Tories give it til Friday to say no agreement can be reached or do they just do so tomorrow?

    Not being cynical or anything, but none of the Brexit dilemmas actually seem very complicated, just difficult, so I really don't see what about the discussions, at this point, takes so long.
    March 29 was the Rubicon . Once that was crossed ,no other deadline existed in a real sense .
    True. Though not that it was all plain sailing after he did it by any means, but I'd like to think Julius Ceasar has more of a plan when he crossed the rubicon than this shower.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    What made you think that was the idea?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    This fudge to end of October designed to try and keep May in place and have it done and dusted before Bozo or another nutjob takes over .

    The end of June review designed to appease Macrons tantrum and also give May a date to work towards and a fig leaf .

    Personally an end of June cut off would have focused minds . I fear now MPs will just bicker for the next few months . The Tory Labour negotiations can now stop the pretence and collapse .

    MPs need to stop this showboating and get real . Although Macron might have been criticized he did have a point . Unless there’s a hard end date sooner rather than later MPs will just drag the whole thing out .


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It would be ironic if the next major problem for the EU isn't anything to do with the UK specifically, but instead the results of the Euro Elections as a whole, if anti-EU parties win a heavy percentage of the seats.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    If the pro-European parties do well in the elections, they could potentially extend the October date further to give time for a second referendum.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    What made you think that was the idea?
    Silly me, I listened to what they said. And also what Macron said about not wanting rolling extensions and not wanting to keep having to waste their time on this. My mistake!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    This fudge to end of October designed to try and keep May in place and have it done and dusted before Bozo or another nutjob takes over .

    The end of June review designed to appease Macrons tantrum and also give May a date to work towards and a fig leaf .

    Personally an end of June cut off would have focused minds . I fear now MPs will just bicker for the next few months . The Tory Labour negotiations can now stop the pretence and collapse .

    MPs need to stop this showboating and get real . Although Macron might have been criticized he did have a point . Unless there’s a hard end date sooner rather than later MPs will just drag the whole thing out .


    Macron's primary motiviation was probably domestic politics, and if he did push it harder than the EU leaders thought reasonable that might have been overdoing it, but frankly it seemed a more likely way of achieving a resolution than the rest. But achieving a resolution, of some kind, is not really at the top of the list of priorities for most on any side here.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    Will be interesting to see whether they specify how the result of the review is to be decided. Unanimity? Unanimity required for a change? Simple majority, qualified majority? The possibilities are endless.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    nico67 said:

    This fudge to end of October designed to try and keep May in place and have it done and dusted before Bozo or another nutjob takes over .

    The end of June review designed to appease Macrons tantrum and also give May a date to work towards and a fig leaf .

    Personally an end of June cut off would have focused minds . I fear now MPs will just bicker for the next few months . The Tory Labour negotiations can now stop the pretence and collapse .

    MPs need to stop this showboating and get real . Although Macron might have been criticized he did have a point . Unless there’s a hard end date sooner rather than later MPs will just drag the whole thing out .

    Aren't MPs irrelevant for the time being? How people vote in May will be the most important factor in the short term.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    If the pro-European parties do well in the elections, they could potentially extend the October date further to give time for a second referendum.
    True, but they could offer that anyway if they wanted to? Surely they don't need a formal review, it just exists to let May claim we might still leave on June 30.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    kle4 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    What made you think that was the idea?
    Silly me, I listened to what they said. And also what Macron said about not wanting rolling extensions and having to keep wasting their time on this. My mistake!
    Yes, an awful lot of people assuring us how jolly cross they are, or how much they don't want x or y, even as they avoid decisions and go through the same old motions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited April 2019
    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Chris said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    Will be interesting to see whether they specify how the result of the review is to be decided. Unanimity? Unanimity required for a change? Simple majority, qualified majority? The possibilities are endless.
    I would expect that legally (ie under the terms of Article 50) it can only be done as an extension to the end of June plus a non-binding promise to extend again if we're good boys and gals. So presumably unanimity will be required. It's a mess.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bring on the EU elections - Brexit Party vs UKIP vs the CUKs vs Monster Raving Loony !

    Or not...

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115917718585266176
    I just can’t see labour getting anywhere near that
    Why not? They're the Remain party as far as most members and supporters are concerned, no matter that the leadership is playing it cooler than that.
    Personally I don’t see Remainers turning out when they are getting their own way as things are. Us not having left & now having a further 6 month extension is like them copping a 100/1 shot.
    Remain itself has not been assured yet, though it is looking very rosy indeed. Turning out in force for pro-EU parties has a purpose in keeping up the momentum. There's a non zero chance furious Brexiteers turn out too, but I just don't see the mood music for that.
    Maybe it’s just because I am one, but I reckon people are more furious than places where people talk party politics think
    Leave's best chance now, irony of ironies, would be a people's vote WA vs remain - WA would be shorter then evens to win and that would be us irreversibly on the way out the morning after the vote. They never see a nose on their face without reaching for a knife.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    This fudge to end of October designed to try and keep May in place and have it done and dusted before Bozo or another nutjob takes over .

    The end of June review designed to appease Macrons tantrum and also give May a date to work towards and a fig leaf .

    Personally an end of June cut off would have focused minds . I fear now MPs will just bicker for the next few months . The Tory Labour negotiations can now stop the pretence and collapse .

    MPs need to stop this showboating and get real . Although Macron might have been criticized he did have a point . Unless there’s a hard end date sooner rather than later MPs will just drag the whole thing out .


    Macron's primary motiviation was probably domestic politics, and if he did push it harder than the EU leaders thought reasonable that might have been overdoing it, but frankly it seemed a more likely way of achieving a resolution than the rest. But achieving a resolution, of some kind, is not really at the top of the list of priorities for most on any side here.
    An end of June cut off with no further exensions would have forced MPs to get a grip . As it is I expect the warring factions to recommence battle whilst the public looks on in horror .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Charles said:

    I posted a few thoughts on Israel on the last thread but on an iPhone so can’t port it over.

    If anyone cares 😂

    An interesting item on Newsnight where someone suggested this proposed annexation of Palestinian land was illegal... "Not if you go back 3000 years" they replied.

    I'm torn between them being Sid and Doris or just plain bullies.

    Incidentally Your mate Benny Gantz is no better than Netanyahu.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20

    It's all happening tonight.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The commentariat seems to agree with me:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1116114280095547394
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    Quincel said:

    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, the 'review' in June is a total dog's breakfast of an idea. What are they going to do, chuck us out at short notice against our will if we haven't tidied our room by then? I thought the whole idea was to avoid uncertainty for business.

    If the pro-European parties do well in the elections, they could potentially extend the October date further to give time for a second referendum.
    True, but they could offer that anyway if they wanted to? Surely they don't need a formal review, it just exists to let May claim we might still leave on June 30.
    In fairness it's a true claim just very improbable. If parliament wanted it could sort everything out very quickly.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    HYUFD said:

    Australian PM calls a general election for 18th May

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1116100051070177280?s=20

    We might be having one as well......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    On topic: Is there anything Jeremy Hunt doesn't think would be catastrophic for the Tories?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    williamglenn said:

    On topic: Is there anything Jeremy Hunt doesn't think would be catastrophic for the Tories?

    Jeremy Hunt leading the party.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    williamglenn said:

    On topic: Is there anything Jeremy Hunt doesn't think would be catastrophic for the Tories?

    Jeremy Hunt becoming the next leader, I imagine.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1116113102565773312?s=20

    Leave EU is really losing it.
    All in the best possble taste
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    I posted a few thoughts on Israel on the last thread but on an iPhone so can’t port it over.

    If anyone cares 😂

    An interesting item on Newsnight where someone suggested this proposed annexation of Palestinian land was illegal... "Not if you go back 3000 years" they replied.

    I'm torn between them being Sid and Doris or just plain bullies.

    Incidentally Your mate Benny Gantz is no better than Netanyahu.
    I know nothing about Benny Gantz. My mate (Rubin’s grandson) told me he was.

    I struggle to think of anyone worse that Bibi so believes him
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited April 2019
    https://twitter.com/politicalwire/status/1116119761384103937

    Joe Biden 23%,
    Bernie Sanders 16%,
    Pete Buttigieg 11%,
    Elizabeth Warren 9%,
    Kamala Harris 7%,
    Beto O’Rourke 6%,
    Cory Booker 4%
    Amy Klobuchar 2%.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited April 2019
    There must now be a chance May will resign if the talks with Labour founder. Not sure if that is an incentive or not for the parties to make a breakthrough.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The commentariat seems to agree with me:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1116114280095547394

    How does May walk back from her no longer than 30 June statement? (I think it was “not while I am pm”...)
This discussion has been closed.