When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring both the manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Absolutely jiggered if I can see how this medium-length extension helps.
It falls pretty much slap bang between the two sensible options of a very short extension focusing minds on a decision or a really long delay to allow for the Tories to finally decide that's enough May, get someone else in, GE, referendum, whatever.
What is May actually going to DO with that time, other than spouting the same shite for another 6 months with no change to the result? Surely they asked her what her plan was...
Absolutely hopeless on all sides - the EU have surely got this one wrong.
Conference season looks entertaining this year. Time for a formal CHUK/LD Alliance methinks.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Mrs Foxy and Fox jr are voting CHUK in the Euros, though I am inclined Green.
LD for us all locally as the LD councillors in Leics are very good indeed.
Easy to say that May is a(the?) blockage to something or anything happening, but to lay the woes of the Tory Party on her alone (to the extent that her removal would solve it) is another matter. What is she a blockage to that is either acceptable to the Tory Party or likely to revive their current electoral prospects?
There appears to be no deal acceptable to the Tory Party, and even if there was it is debateable if it could get through the Commons. The only way a deal gets through the Commons is if a Conservative Prime Minister supports one against large scale Tory opposition.
Which only leaves "no deal", which, whilst appearing to have fair level of support as potential outcome in the Tory Party, would go against the strong opposition of the Commons and has the added downside that what may seem currently like the most attractive short term political outcome leaves open the possibility of economic disaster that could ultimately destroy those who pursue it and inflict it on the country.
Easy to say that May is a(the?) blockage to something or anything happening, but to lay the woes of the Tory Party on her alone (to the extent that her removal would solve it) is another matter. What is she a blockage to that is either acceptable to the Tory Party or likely to revive their current electoral prospects?
There appears to be no deal acceptable to the Tory Party, and even if there was it is debateable if it could get through the Commons. The only way a deal gets through the Commons is if a Conservative Prime Minister supports one against large scale Tory opposition.
Which only leaves "no deal", which, whilst appearing to have fair level of support as potential outcome in the Tory Party, would go against the strong opposition of the Commons and has the added downside that what may seem currently like the most attractive short term political outcome leaves open the possibility of economic disaster that could ultimately destroy those who pursue it and inflict it on the country.
So just revoke Article 50. Problem solved in an afternoon.
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
I think the ERG have done plenty to justify having the whip taken away from them.
That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded?
The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.
I think it simply come down to (no more/no less) than the fact that March 29th has passed without Brexit and no prospect of it in sight. Labour has lost most of the hard remainers and the Tories the hard Brexiteers. And those voters are searching around for somebody/anybody to 'support' as an alternative.
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
I think the ERG have done plenty to justify having the whip taken away from them.
Certainly those threatening to vonc their own government
PB'ers have been obsessing over the detail and twists and turns of Brexit for so long that I worry about our withdrawal symptoms when the story eventually ends. Especially if it doesn't lead into a GE.
Easy to say that May is a(the?) blockage to something or anything happening, but to lay the woes of the Tory Party on her alone (to the extent that her removal would solve it) is another matter. What is she a blockage to that is either acceptable to the Tory Party or likely to revive their current electoral prospects?
There appears to be no deal acceptable to the Tory Party, and even if there was it is debateable if it could get through the Commons. The only way a deal gets through the Commons is if a Conservative Prime Minister supports one against large scale Tory opposition.
Which only leaves "no deal", which, whilst appearing to have fair level of support as potential outcome in the Tory Party, would go against the strong opposition of the Commons and has the added downside that what may seem currently like the most attractive short term political outcome leaves open the possibility of economic disaster that could ultimately destroy those who pursue it and inflict it on the country.
So just revoke Article 50. Problem solved in an afternoon.
That also falls into the category of 'outcomes unacceptable to the Tory Party'.
PB'ers have been obsessing over the detail and twists and turns of Brexit for so long that I worry about our withdrawal symptoms when the story eventually ends. Especially if it doesn't lead into a GE.
Being an uncle is great. You can wind them up into a frenzy and hand them back. It's like hiring a car.I had a good relationship with my nephew until the ultimate betrayal - he joined the RAF.
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
I think the ERG have done plenty to justify having the whip taken away from them.
Certainly those threatening to vonc their own government
Take the whip away from a couple of dozen MPs when you don't have a majority in the first place?
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
I think the ERG have done plenty to justify having the whip taken away from them.
Certainly those threatening to vonc their own government
Take the whip away from a couple of dozen MPs when you don't have a majority in the first place?
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
I think the ERG have done plenty to justify having the whip taken away from them.
Certainly those threatening to vonc their own government
Take the whip away from a couple of dozen MPs when you don't have a majority in the first place?
Take the whip away. Call an election with replacements in their safe seats. That would probably increase the government's real majority.
Only thing is, Corbyn might get ideas as well.
Edit - in all seriousness, one thing this does show is that if we are to keep FPTP the power of recall needs to be extended to all MPs. They would certainly not be behaving so stupidly with the threat of a by-election hanging over them.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
PB'ers have been obsessing over the detail and twists and turns of Brexit for so long that I worry about our withdrawal symptoms when the story eventually ends. Especially if it doesn't lead into a GE.
The delay until 31st October confirmed that the EU leaders could not restrict the UK in any matters relating to the EU once we have elected MEPs and continue as a full paying member
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
I think that among Conservative voters, it's the antics of Dominic Grieve and friends that are losing them support, along with the PM's inability to understand that- having been voted down three times - her deal is as dead as a dodo.
The Conservatives remain favourites for most seats at the next election. I’ve always found that a stretch and it now looks baffling to me.
Electoral calculus does give the Tories five more seats than Labour with that 2% polling deficit, so they would seem to have vote efficiency in their favour.
Just as a benchmark, the lowest monthly average poll rating for the Tories was 23.2% in May 1997.
The lowest ever individual Tory poll rating was 18.5% by Gallup in early Jan 1995 (with another poll late Dec 94 of 20.4%), during the period of Tory divisions over Europe that culminated in Major resigning the leadership, restanding and winning.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
It’s always easy to take a relaxed view about the prospect of chaos when you’re several thousand miles away.
PB'ers have been obsessing over the detail and twists and turns of Brexit for so long that I worry about our withdrawal symptoms when the story eventually ends. Especially if it doesn't lead into a GE.
PB'ers have been obsessing over the detail and twists and turns of Brexit for so long that I worry about our withdrawal symptoms when the story eventually ends. Especially if it doesn't lead into a GE.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
PB'ers have been obsessing over the detail and twists and turns of Brexit for so long that I worry about our withdrawal symptoms when the story eventually ends. Especially if it doesn't lead into a GE.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
Easy to say that May is a(the?) blockage to something or anything happening, but to lay the woes of the Tory Party on her alone (to the extent that her removal would solve it) is another matter. What is she a blockage to that is either acceptable to the Tory Party or likely to revive their current electoral prospects?
There appears to be no deal acceptable to the Tory Party, and even if there was it is debateable if it could get through the Commons. The only way a deal gets through the Commons is if a Conservative Prime Minister supports one against large scale Tory opposition.
Which only leaves "no deal", which, whilst appearing to have fair level of support as potential outcome in the Tory Party, would go against the strong opposition of the Commons and has the added downside that what may seem currently like the most attractive short term political outcome leaves open the possibility of economic disaster that could ultimately destroy those who pursue it and inflict it on the country.
So just revoke Article 50. Problem solved in an afternoon.
That also falls into the category of 'outcomes unacceptable to the Tory Party'.
Tories don't seem to understand the concept of least unacceptable achievable outcome. Which is surprising given how attached they are to our voting system.
If they did, we'd be heading towards a Deal v Remain referendum.
So actually, according to that agreement the only circumstance in which we could leave the EU against our will before the end of October is if we refuse to hold elections. The June "review" is just going to be a chinwag, and the other "conditions" are just a lot of pious hot air.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.
I suppose the Cons have to worry about people like me a little bit.
Will not vote Lab while JC is there but also would take a long hard look at whomever is going to take over from May. Any of the crazy gang and they've lost at least my vote if not my membership. So that leaves the chuckles party.
As mentioned previously if it gets too bonkers with the Cons leadership I might even stand for them.
Easy to say that May is a(the?) blockage to something or anything happening, but to lay the woes of the Tory Party on her alone (to the extent that her removal would solve it) is another matter. What is she a blockage to that is either acceptable to the Tory Party or likely to revive their current electoral prospects?
There appears to be no deal acceptable to the Tory Party, and even if there was it is debateable if it could get through the Commons. The only way a deal gets through the Commons is if a Conservative Prime Minister supports one against large scale Tory opposition.
Which only leaves "no deal", which, whilst appearing to have fair level of support as potential outcome in the Tory Party, would go against the strong opposition of the Commons and has the added downside that what may seem currently like the most attractive short term political outcome leaves open the possibility of economic disaster that could ultimately destroy those who pursue it and inflict it on the country.
So just revoke Article 50. Problem solved in an afternoon.
That also falls into the category of 'outcomes unacceptable to the Tory Party'.
Tories don't seem to understand the concept of least unacceptable achievable outcome. Which is surprising given how attached they are to our voting system.
If they did, we'd be heading towards a Deal v Remain referendum.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
Absolutely jiggered if I can see how this medium-length extension helps.
It falls pretty much slap bang between the two sensible options of a very short extension focusing minds on a decision or a really long delay to allow for the Tories to finally decide that's enough May, get someone else in, GE, referendum, whatever.
What is May actually going to DO with that time, other than spouting the same shite for another 6 months with no change to the result? Surely they asked her what her plan was...
Absolutely hopeless on all sides - the EU have surely got this one wrong.
The longer the extension the greater the chance of Brexit not happening which any thinking person now realises is the only sensible option. The last two years have shown exactly where Leaving would have left us and it wasn't a pretty sight. The only part of Mrs May's legacy that will save her from the ignominy of being the most incompetent PM ever is that her incompetence saved us from the fate that Brexiting would have been
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.
Absolutely jiggered if I can see how this medium-length extension helps.
It falls pretty much slap bang between the two sensible options of a very short extension focusing minds on a decision or a really long delay to allow for the Tories to finally decide that's enough May, get someone else in, GE, referendum, whatever.
What is May actually going to DO with that time, other than spouting the same shite for another 6 months with no change to the result? Surely they asked her what her plan was...
Absolutely hopeless on all sides - the EU have surely got this one wrong.
Clearly it's a compromise between those two views, which were argued out at the EU summit.
It is however long enough for us to consider an alternative approach like a Referendum (if this needed a bit more time, it would quickly be granted) and for public opinion to continue draining away from the Brexit project.
But not long enough for the Tories to drag May from office, hold a full leadership election, and for a new Leader to try and renegotiate everything from scratch. Particularly as the sort of leader they are worrying about would lose their majority without a GE, and there certainly isn't time for a leadership election and GE.
The EU knows May is s**t but prefer the devil they know.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
I think the point is that whilst no deal would res,ult in a short term hit, there is at least a chance that the debate could move on from taking decisions (or, more pertinently, failing to take them) in a situation where all options are bad, to a new situations where we can start focusing on choices between good options.
In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
So apparently a failure to deliver Brexit has peeled off support to Brexit and UKIP and a failure to compromise has peeled off to CHUK. Seems like a microcosm of Brexit in Parliament to me.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
How would it resolve matters? No Deal leaves the UK totally isolated, totally at the mercy of others and even more politically fractious than it is now.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.
Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
A forced choice between Revoke and No Deal seems close to 50/50 across a range of polling organisations.
But, it's a forced choice. Many people don't want to be forced into that choice, but prefer other options.
What will do for Soubry is that she'd defending an ultra marginal seat, and no one has an incentive to vote for her tactically.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
I think the point is that whilst no deal would res,ult in a short term hit, there is at least a chance that the debate could move on from taking decisions (or, more pertinently, failing to take them) in a situation where all options are bad, to a new situations where we can start focusing on choices between good options.
In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
No Deal is not an end, it just puts us back in a position of needing a WA, and suffering in the meantime.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
How would it resolve matters? No Deal leaves the UK totally isolated, totally at the mercy of others and even more politically fractious than it is now.
Not saying I agreed SO, but that's what they said. I think (as far as I can judge) they just feel all this does is move the same debate six months into the future, i.e. it leaves the prospects of an ultimate crashout unchanged.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
How would it resolve matters? No Deal leaves the UK totally isolated, totally at the mercy of others and even more politically fractious than it is now.
How so? There have been months of preparation for such an outcome. Are you also saying Theresa May was lying when saying no deal is better than a bad deal, ie her surrender document?
So apparently a failure to deliver Brexit has peeled off support to Brexit and UKIP and a failure to compromise has peeled off to CHUK. Seems like a microcosm of Brexit in Parliament to me.
Why, oh why, didn't they call it the CHANGE UKALLIANCE?
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.
No Deal is not an end, it just puts us back in a position of needing a WA, and suffering in the meantime.
Does it? The withdrawal will be done. Everything would be up for negotiation at that point, since it'd be no longer bound by those insane sequencing rules.
So apparently a failure to deliver Brexit has peeled off support to Brexit and UKIP and a failure to compromise has peeled off to CHUK. Seems like a microcosm of Brexit in Parliament to me.
Why, oh why, didn't they call it the CHANGE UKALLIANCE?
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
Err, nope.
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.
Too many flapping white coats in the GCC region.
They don't even meet fez to fez round those parts.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
I think the point is that whilst no deal would res,ult in a short term hit, there is at least a chance that the debate could move on from taking decisions (or, more pertinently, failing to take them) in a situation where all options are bad, to a new situations where we can start focusing on choices between good options.
In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
So apparently a failure to deliver Brexit has peeled off support to Brexit and UKIP and a failure to compromise has peeled off to CHUK. Seems like a microcosm of Brexit in Parliament to me.
Why, oh why, didn't they call it the CHANGE UKALLIANCE?
Wait for the inevitable tie-up with the Lib Dems.
It needs to be with the Enlightened party as well, so it's Change UK, Liberals and Enlightened Spirits: CHUKLES.
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
Err, nope.
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.
It’s not ad hominem, it’s an essential point. You can take an Olympian view of any tribulations Britain might suffer from no deal because you won’t suffer them directly. Meanwhile there are news reports that in the event of no deal Brexit there may be shortages of some anti-seizure medicines. My partner takes and needs anti-seizure medicines. The consequences are rather more immediate for me than for you.
But not long enough for the Tories to drag May from office, hold a full leadership election, and for a new Leader to try and renegotiate everything from scratch. Particularly as the sort of leader they are worrying about would lose their majority without a GE, and there certainly isn't time for a leadership election and GE.
If May was forced out the weekend after the EU elections the Tories could have a new leader in July. If that leader were a no-dealer they could hold a September election on a renegotiation if possible, no deal if not platform, leaving October for sham/no negotiations before a Halloween no deal Brexit.
I think there's time. I'd hope that they wouldn't win a majority, but with FPTP who knows?
No Deal is not an end, it just puts us back in a position of needing a WA, and suffering in the meantime.
Does it? The withdrawal will be done. Everything would be up for negotiation at that point, since it'd be no longer bound by those insane sequencing rules.
Well, not if you believe what the EU are saying on post nodeal trade talks, even though their position is nonsensical.
Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
I think he was the Chief Economist of the largest bank in the GCC region.
Then he (I guess) knows very little about Brexit.
What he does know is that there's nothing that business wants worse than uncertainty. Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.
In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
Correct.
Also of course it buggers any plans made for a crashout now. The man who stockpiled ten tons of cream cheese in case of delays at the ports - now he's got to use that, and then stockpile again in October, because no way will anything have changed by then. So he's spent money twice over.
From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
No Deal is not an end, it just puts us back in a position of needing a WA, and suffering in the meantime.
Does it? The withdrawal will be done. Everything would be up for negotiation at that point, since it'd be no longer bound by those insane sequencing rules.
Exactly. And there would no longer be any point in the EU continuing with its approach of offering the UK nothing in the expectation that the UK would eventually be persuaded to revoke, so negotiations could then start in earnest.
But not long enough for the Tories to drag May from office, hold a full leadership election, and for a new Leader to try and renegotiate everything from scratch. Particularly as the sort of leader they are worrying about would lose their majority without a GE, and there certainly isn't time for a leadership election and GE.
If May was forced out the weekend after the EU elections the Tories could have a new leader in July. If that leader were a no-dealer they could hold a September election on a renegotiation if possible, no deal if not platform, leaving October for sham/no negotiations before a Halloween no deal Brexit.
I think there's time. I'd hope that they wouldn't win a majority, but with FPTP who knows?
Particularly since Corbyn appears to be a de facto no dealer as well (insofar as his position means anything at the moment).
Edit - I wonder if the reason for his ambivalence over the WA is because it prohibits the UK from taking action to 'undercut the EU' - which would probably rule out nationalising and subsidising key industries.
No Deal is not an end, it just puts us back in a position of needing a WA, and suffering in the meantime.
Does it? The withdrawal will be done. Everything would be up for negotiation at that point, since it'd be no longer bound by those insane sequencing rules.
Payments, migrant status and the NI border will be the first 3 agenda items. No Deal is a blind alley.
Now engage with what I wrote rather than howl with rage.
LOL, that was hardly "howling with rage". Again, remain supporters using pejorative and hyperbolic language.
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
Again, you completely ignore the point. You start with a nonsensical idea that Anna Soubry’s views do not have a large constituency. When this nonsense was pointed out, you move onto a rant about the merits of no deal Brexit, an approach for which you will personally bear almost none of the risks.
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
Err, nope.
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.
It’s not ad hominem, it’s an essential point. You can take an Olympian view of any tribulations Britain might suffer from no deal because you won’t suffer them directly. Meanwhile there are news reports that in the event of no deal Brexit there may be shortages of some anti-seizure medicines. My partner takes and needs anti-seizure medicines. The consequences are rather more immediate for me than for you.
Its worse than that - he has already said enough about his financial arrangements to establish that the sharp fall in the £ that is likely with no deal would benefit him considerably.
When you say “Changing Politics” Anna, what you really mean is ignoring the both manifesto on which you were elected and the largest democratic vote in U.K. history - because yourself and your ilk know better how things should be done?
Good luck with that.
The polls consistently show that a majority think Brexit is a mistake and that a large minority passionately want to correct that mistake. She has a large target market of voters. Meanwhile Leavers are getting by turns angrier, more defensive, quieter and still weirder.
Anna Soubry stood on an organised platform of leaving the EU. Without that affiliation it's unlikely she would have been elected.
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Which commentators are saying that? The idea that No Deal brings any kind of certainty is risible.
Actually, on Five Live this morning some business owners were saying six months of uncertainty is the worst imaginable outcome and 'at least a crashout would resolve matters.'
How would it resolve matters? No Deal leaves the UK totally isolated, totally at the mercy of others and even more politically fractious than it is now.
Not saying I agreed SO, but that's what they said. I think (as far as I can judge) they just feel all this does is move the same debate six months into the future, i.e. it leaves the prospects of an ultimate crashout unchanged.
That is true, for sure. But a crash-out is not a final destination.
Just as a benchmark, the lowest monthly average poll rating for the Tories was 23.2% in May 1997.
The lowest ever individual Tory poll rating was 18.5% by Gallup in early Jan 1995 (with another poll late Dec 94 of 20.4%), during the period of Tory divisions over Europe that culminated in Major resigning the leadership, restanding and winning.
Conservatives: A difficult decision has to be made. Provided you keep everything above board there will be no reason to regret the choices you are now making. 29%
Labour : a full moon in the third quarter sees a change in fortune electorally, but be careful of shrewd strangers 31%
Lib Dem’s: your laid back nature can be an asset but can also hold you back. Don’t let others take advantage 8%
Chuka: Take the driver's seat. The more honest and assertive you are, the easier it will be to get other people to respect your stance. 8%
UKIP: Although you don't expect to achieve any of your aims very quickly, if you're patient you will make some progress. Unresolved conflicts between you and a partner will need to be sorted out 7%
Brex: You can't get some matters moving as quickly as you would like. Just as you feel progress is being made, something gets in the way. One task you took on recently was never meant to be a solo project. With a little help from a talented friend, you can change gear. 6%
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
You can use exactly the same argument with people who voted Labour and the official Labour party Brexit policy at the last election. However many leavers like to claim that 80% effectively voted Leave in GE2017.
Indeed. It’s been a regular feature of this saga that media commentators repeat as news things everyone already knows, while simultaneously ramping up outcomes that are vanishingly unlikely (like No Deal) by focusing on technicalities rather than players’ incentives.
In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
Correct.
Also of course it buggers any plans made for a crashout now. The man who stockpiled ten tons of cream cheese in case of delays at the ports - now he's got to use that, and then stockpile again in October, because no way will anything have changed by then. So he's spent money twice over.
From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
We must leave with no deal because John Bull decided to buy rather a lot of cream cheese.
Just as a benchmark, the lowest monthly average poll rating for the Tories was 23.2% in May 1997.
The lowest ever individual Tory poll rating was 18.5% by Gallup in early Jan 1995 (with another poll late Dec 94 of 20.4%), during the period of Tory divisions over Europe that culminated in Major resigning the leadership, restanding and winning.
That is surely one of the biggest swings in a single poll ever recorded?
The Tory implosion at Westminster finally seems to be hitting the poll numbers.
Yes, finally looks plausible. And the erg intractable will say it shows what they want should happen even though polling was fine when May was trying to get her policy through rather than cut a deal.
To be honest, I'm surprised their vote has held up so well. They've been in power for nine years, most of it without a majority, dealing with two almost intractable problems in a huge budget deficit and Brexit, the party is divided and exhausted and yet still they still led most polls until the last few weeks.
It's almost as though despite the fact the Tories are shambolic people have misgivings about a party led by a man who supports Holocaust deniers, terrorists and genocidal maniacs.
Comments
Everyone already knows that.
Good luck with that.
LD for us all locally as the LD councillors in Leics are very good indeed.
There appears to be no deal acceptable to the Tory Party, and even if there was it is debateable if it could get through the Commons. The only way a deal gets through the Commons is if a Conservative Prime Minister supports one against large scale Tory opposition.
Which only leaves "no deal", which, whilst appearing to have fair level of support as potential outcome in the Tory Party, would go against the strong opposition of the Commons and has the added downside that what may seem currently like the most attractive short term political outcome leaves open the possibility of economic disaster that could ultimately destroy those who pursue it and inflict it on the country.
I am concerned that TM refuses to resign but against that she keeps Johnson away from the leadership.
In truth I think that a referendum is becoming more likely and at the same time the longer we are represented in Europe, I would expect a decisive move to remain
I am convinced the antics of Baker and Francois are one of the causes of damage to the poll ratings and, right now, I could not vote in a GE for an ERG member
If she didn't agree with that policy she shouldn't have stood, and if she has changed her mind about it then she should allow those who elected her to also change their minds about whom their representative should be. Messrs Carswell and Reckless had the honesty to do this, but others are free to choose other paths and will be judged on their decisions by he public in due course - hopefully soon.
Note also that it's not the Leave supporters that are using the increasingly hyperbolic language - we have already had one "death cult" from your good self this morning as a good example.
In my non-EU part of the world, we have commentators on the business radio programmes this morning saying that more can kicking and more uncertainty is in fact much worse than no deal - with the latter outcome the decisions are made and everyone can get on with their lives according to the new order, businesses want to be able to make decisions without political uncertainty.
Only thing is, Corbyn might get ideas as well.
Edit - in all seriousness, one thing this does show is that if we are to keep FPTP the power of recall needs to be extended to all MPs. They would certainly not be behaving so stupidly with the threat of a by-election hanging over them.
The lowest ever individual Tory poll rating was 18.5% by Gallup in early Jan 1995 (with another poll late Dec 94 of 20.4%), during the period of Tory divisions over Europe that culminated in Major resigning the leadership, restanding and winning.
That latter figure is going to take some beating.
The polls are pretty turbulent at the moment, as we have seen in the last couple of days. One showed a 50/50 split in a forced "No-Deal v Revoke A50" choice. If that choice were put to the people in a referendum, we'd most likely leave with no deal.
As @iSam said earlier on this thread: http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2283875/#Comment_2283875
Maybe it’s just because I am one, but I reckon people are more furious than places where people talk party politics think
If they did, we'd be heading towards a Deal v Remain referendum.
Will not vote Lab while JC is there but also would take a long hard look at whomever is going to take over from May. Any of the crazy gang and they've lost at least my vote if not my membership. So that leaves the chuckles party.
As mentioned previously if it gets too bonkers with the Cons leadership I might even stand for them.
https://twitter.com/brexitcountdow1/status/1116234470489829379?s=20
Now you’re moving on to creating your own views about where polls might move based on a single poll that is out of line with every other poll recently taken and still doesn’t back up your case. And they wonder why Leavers are regarded as whackos.
It is however long enough for us to consider an alternative approach like a Referendum (if this needed a bit more time, it would quickly be granted) and for public opinion to continue draining away from the Brexit project.
But not long enough for the Tories to drag May from office, hold a full leadership election, and for a new Leader to try and renegotiate everything from scratch. Particularly as the sort of leader they are worrying about would lose their majority without a GE, and there certainly isn't time for a leadership election and GE.
The EU knows May is s**t but prefer the devil they know.
In the medium term it is better to be moving forward from a lower base than going nowhere with only the prospect of moving backwards. Think ERM.
But, it's a forced choice. Many people don't want to be forced into that choice, but prefer other options.
What will do for Soubry is that she'd defending an ultra marginal seat, and no one has an incentive to vote for her tactically.
My argument is that Anna Soubry was elected by the voters of Broxtowe primarily because she stood as a Conservative. I don't doubt that her views on Brexit are popular with a number of people in the UK, but those who actually voted for her most likely take a different view, more in line with the Conservative manifesto.
"whackos" - again, who's using the hyperbolic language? It's not me.
Oh, and another ad-hom about my being personally based abroad, despite many family and business interests in the UK.
I think there's time. I'd hope that they wouldn't win a majority, but with FPTP who knows?
Ie. “no commencing of trade talks without a “backstop” for Ireland”. A backstop to what, is somewhat unclear - a failure to agree a trade deal, so no deal situation continues...?
Six more months of uncertainty really helps no-one - especially, from his point of view, those outside the EU.
From his point of view, a crashout and a sortout now would probably have been better.
Well that didn't take long for Con to go under 30%!!!
Has Theresa May resigned yet?
Edit - I wonder if the reason for his ambivalence over the WA is because it prohibits the UK from taking action to 'undercut the EU' - which would probably rule out nationalising and subsidising key industries.
Conservatives: A difficult decision has to be made. Provided you keep everything above board there will be no reason to regret the choices you are now making. 29%
Labour : a full moon in the third quarter sees a change in fortune electorally, but be careful of shrewd strangers 31%
Lib Dem’s: your laid back nature can be an asset but can also hold you back. Don’t let others take advantage 8%
Chuka: Take the driver's seat. The more honest and assertive you are, the easier it will be to get other people to respect your stance. 8%
UKIP: Although you don't expect to achieve any of your aims very quickly, if you're patient you will make some progress. Unresolved conflicts between you and a partner will need to be sorted out 7%
Brex: You can't get some matters moving as quickly as you would like. Just as you feel progress is being made, something gets in the way. One task you took on recently was never meant to be a solo project. With a little help from a talented friend, you can change gear. 6%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
Well done Theresa...
It’s been a poor period for political analysis.
It's almost as though despite the fact the Tories are shambolic people have misgivings about a party led by a man who supports Holocaust deniers, terrorists and genocidal maniacs.