I completely forgot how soon upon us the Newport by-election is. Should presumably be a comfortableish Lab hold (so we can expect the usual by-election talk about how it shows the government has lost its mandate etc etc) - is the Lab candidate especially Corbynisty?
What's interesting is, The Economist seems to think the candidates aresteering well clear of Brexit as an issue and campaigning on local stuff like more policemen and the M4 relief road. Which is exactly what I would expect to happen in a General Election too, which is why a GE is useless as a proxy for a second referendum.
I completely forgot how soon upon us the Newport by-election is. Should presumably be a comfortableish Lab hold (so we can expect the usual by-election talk about how it shows the government has lost its mandate etc etc) - is the Lab candidate especially Corbynisty?
What's interesting is, The Economist seems to think the candidates aresteering well clear of Brexit as an issue and campaigning on local stuff like more policemen and the M4 relief road. Which is exactly what I would expect to happen in a General Election too, which is why a GE is useless as a proxy for a second referendum.
If Grieve gets deslected he might surely just as well join the ChangeUK mob now.
That would be an admittance that no other Conservative association would want him.
Now that doesn't mean that either Grieve and/or the Conservative party is at fault merely that they have irreconcilable views on what they regard as fundamental issues.
I am sure constituencies like Glasgow Central, Sunderland South or Lambeth would take him. As for an association in a safe seat, which he would presumably want, anything else being beneath his dignity, that’s rather different.
You really are talking bollocks.
He stood in a Labour seat before he won Beaconsfield.
Don't nearly all MPs do that? I'd assume you have to be very lucky or well connected to not have to fight a no hoper first before you get a crack at a winnable or safe seat? Seems like a sensible way to do it, to see what they can do in a tough seat, test their campaigning skills, hopefully note any concerns that they might turn a safe seat non safe.
George Osborne didn't.
Prime Minister in waiting Jeremy Hunt didn't either nor did Gove.
I'm sure there are others but those are the three that came to mind first.
However, when Osborne was selected, Tatton had Martin Bell as its MP (who fortunately for George, kept his promise to only serve one term); when Hunt was chosen, his seat was a super marginal against the LibDems, and Gove benefitted from the deselection of his predecessor. So two of the three weren’t parachuted into ultra safe constituencies.
If Grieve gets deslected he might surely just as well join the ChangeUK mob now.
That would be an admittance that no other Conservative association would want him.
Now that doesn't mean that either Grieve and/or the Conservative party is at fault merely that they have irreconcilable views on what they regard as fundamental issues.
I am sure constituencies like Glasgow Central, Sunderland South or Lambeth would take him. As for an association in a safe seat, which he would presumably want, anything else being beneath his dignity, that’s rather different.
You really are talking bollocks.
He stood in a Labour seat before he won Beaconsfield.
Don't nearly all MPs do that? I'd assume you have to be very lucky or well connected to not have to fight a no hoper first before you get a crack at a winnable or safe seat? Seems like a sensible way to do it, to see what they can do in a tough seat, test their campaigning skills, hopefully note any concerns that they might turn a safe seat non safe.
George Osborne didn't.
Prime Minister in waiting Jeremy Hunt didn't either nor did Gove.
I'm sure there are others but those are the three that came to mind first.
However, when Osborne was selected, Tatton had Martin Bell as its MP (who fortunately for George, kept his promise to only serve one term); when Hunt was chosen, his seat was a super marginal against the LibDems, and Gove benefitted from the deselection of his predecessor. So two of the three weren’t parachuted into ultra safe constituencies.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
An election now will lead to a parliament even more remainey than the one we have now. Anti-Brexit campaigns, fired up by their recent successes, will promote tactical voting against Brexiters and this could well lead to a number of prominent Brexiters losing their seats, Bojo and IDS are particularly vulnerable. Labour and all other opposition parties will make commitments involving a second referendum, however qualified. So the likelihood is that a new parliament will contain a majority of MPs elected on the promise of a second vote. And leave voters, angry and demoralised, will drift away from a Tory party that many will say cannot be trusted to deliver, toward the Farage/Brexit party. So an early election is likely to lead ultimately to remain.
Boris is likely to win regardless, Hillingdon voted Leave and Labour would only win Uxbridge if they won a clear overall majority. IDS is more vulnerable as Chingford and Woodford Green is in Waltham Forest which voted Remain and Labour could gain Chingford even if they fall short of an overall majority
You underestimate how London is deserting the Tories. You can't treat three year old referendum data like it's the gospel.
If Grieve gets deslected he might surely just as well join the ChangeUK mob now.
That would be an admittance that no other Conservative association would want him.
Now that doesn't mean that either Grieve and/or the Conservative party is at fault merely that they have irreconcilable views on what they regard as fundamental issues.
I am sure constituencies like Glasgow Central, Sunderland South or Lambeth would take him. As for an association in a safe seat, which he would presumably want, anything else being beneath his dignity, that’s rather different.
You really are talking bollocks.
He stood in a Labour seat before he won Beaconsfield.
I completely forgot how soon upon us the Newport by-election is. Should presumably be a comfortableish Lab hold (so we can expect the usual by-election talk about how it shows the government has lost its mandate etc etc) - is the Lab candidate especially Corbynisty?
What's interesting is, The Economist seems to think the candidates aresteering well clear of Brexit as an issue and campaigning on local stuff like more policemen and the M4 relief road. Which is exactly what I would expect to happen in a General Election too, which is why a GE is useless as a proxy for a second referendum.
And is also a reason why Corbyn could do very well indeed. All that work asking about rural bus routes at PMQ, those visits to Morecambe etc may well pay off.
Conservative MPs from across the party are threatening to vote down any attempt by Theresa May to lead them into a snap election, warning it would split the Tories and exacerbate the Brexit crisis.
In a sign of the collapse in authority suffered by the prime minister, cabinet ministers are among those warning that there will be a serious campaign by Conservative MPs to vote against an election headed by May, a move she hinted at last week to break the Brexit deadlock.
The threat of an election immediately angered both pro-Brexit and pro-Remain MPs. May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure one, meaning a serious rebellion by Tories could block it. May would then be forced to secure an election by backing a no-confidence vote in her own government, which only requires a simple majority of MPs.
Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan said: “If we have a general election before Brexit is resolved, it will only make things worse.”
Antoinette Sandbach, a Tory MP who backs another referendum being held on any deal agreed by parliament, said she would vote against calling an election. “The answer is not a general election, and I would vote against that. We need to find a way forward in parliament and then put that to the people in a confirmatory referendum.”
Mark Francois, a member of the European Research Group of pro-Brexit MPs, said there was “not a chance” that Conservative MPs would back an election under May. “‘Of course they wouldn’t – not after last time. And remember, she needs a super majority to do it.”
With contenders for the Tory leadership already plotting their route to replace May ahead of another perilous week for her premiership, it emerged that:
• Pro-Brexit ministers are threatening to resign should May agree to adopt a permanent customs union with the EU this week.
• A new group of moderate Conservatives, led by Amber Rudd, has been organising in an attempt to stop the party moving further to the right under a new leader.
• Several more Tories are poised to support the idea of a referendum on any deal eventually passed by parliament.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
An election now will lead to a parliament even more remainey than the one we have now. Anti-Brexit campaigns, fired up by their recent successes, will promote tactical voting against Brexiters and this could well lead to a number of prominent Brexiters losing their seats, Bojo and IDS are particularly vulnerable. Labour and all other opposition parties will make commitments involving a second referendum, however qualified. So the likelihood is that a new parliament will contain a majority of MPs elected on the promise of a second vote. And leave voters, angry and demoralised, will drift away from a Tory party that many will say cannot be trusted to deliver, toward the Farage/Brexit party. So an early election is likely to lead ultimately to remain.
Boris is likely to win regardless, Hillingdon voted Leave and Labour would only win Uxbridge if they won a clear overall majority. IDS is more vulnerable as Chingford and Woodford Green is in Waltham Forest which voted Remain and Labour could gain Chingford even if they fall short of an overall majority
You underestimate how London is deserting the Tories. You can't treat three year old referendum data like it's the gospel.
There would be a huge effort by anti-Brexit campaigners to defeat Boris if there is an early election. People would pour in from all over the country. He is probably the most hated man in Europe at the moment.
These warnings from various different factions of the Tories that doing X will cause a split are hilarious. They're already split for crying out loud, that's why they are in such trouble, it's just they have only had 3 actually formally leave so far. May's not up to the task, but one thing she cannot be accussed of is not trying hard enough to avoid Tory splits. Quite the reverse in fact, and that's one reason she has never had a plan B.
If Grieve gets deslected he might surely just as well join the ChangeUK mob now.
That would be an admittance that no other Conservative association would want him.
Now that doesn't mean that either Grieve and/or the Conservative party is at fault merely that they have irreconcilable views on what they regard as fundamental issues.
I am sure constituencies like Glasgow Central, Sunderland South or Lambeth would take him. As for an association in a safe seat, which he would presumably want, anything else being beneath his dignity, that’s rather different.
You really are talking bollocks.
He stood in a Labour seat before he won Beaconsfield.
Don't nearly all MPs do that? I'd assume you have to be very lucky or well connected to not have to fight a no hoper first before you get a crack at a winnable or safe seat? Seems like a sensible way to do it, to see what they can do in a tough seat, test their campaigning skills, hopefully note any concerns that they might turn a safe seat non safe.
George Osborne didn't.
Prime Minister in waiting Jeremy Hunt didn't either nor did Gove.
I'm sure there are others but those are the three that came to mind first.
However, when Osborne was selected, Tatton had Martin Bell as its MP (who fortunately for George, kept his promise to only serve one term); when Hunt was chosen, his seat was a super marginal against the LibDems, and Gove benefitted from the deselection of his predecessor. So two of the three weren’t parachuted into ultra safe constituencies.
How was canvassing today?
Did anyone say Andrew Bridgen is a bellend?
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
Clackmannanshire Central is in Strathclyde (which no longer exists as a region) the same way that Richard Leonard is a charismatic politician with a mind of his own.
Justin knows better than Scottish Labour.
From today's Times.
Labour would be wiped out in Scotland if Theresa May calls a general election, party insiders have warned.
Clackmannanshire Central is in Strathclyde (which no longer exists as a region) the same way that Richard Leonard is a charismatic politician with a mind of his own.
Justin knows better than Scottish Labour.
From today's Times.
But to have any chance of a majority Labour needs to recover ground lost to the SNP. I am not persuaded that the personality of the Scottish Labour Leader is so important at a Westminster election, and strongly suspect that it was the Corbyn surge across GB which boosted Labour there in 2017 - rather than a sudden rise in the popularity of Kezia Dugdale. Corbyn's ratings are poor GB wide at the moment , but if an election campaign gives him real momentum - similar to 2017 - I will be surprised if that fails to come through in Scotland too.
Scotland is hard to predict either way. I'm 30 years old live in Edinburgh and mainly have local knowledge of the Edinburgh/Lothians constituencies really. My local MP Ian Murray has gone down in my estimation but am impressed with other Slab MPs like Paul Sweeney.
I'm not that optimistic about Labour prospects overall that said when Labour got only 20% in the 2017 local elections they were still competitive in a bunch of constituencies which they won or came very close so it could be mainly just the soft SNP/Green pro EU slither of support that Corbyn was responsible for.
The Clackmannanshire result was poor for Labour given the effort they put in, on the other hand they are a poor third place in Ochil and South Perthshire anyway.
I would lean towards pessimism and predict Slab only holding Edinburgh S, East Lothian and Coatbridge but not completely rule out holding all their current seats and picking up the ultra marginals of Dunfermline, Airdrie, Motherwell, Inverclyde, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow SW and Glasgow E if they recover to 27-29%.
The result could be somewhere between what Justin and Malcolm are predicting who could actually be both indulging in wishful thinking at both ends of the spectrum.
Isn't he the arse who screamed out "fuck the tories" at some festival?
I believe it was at Corbynpalooza 2018, aka Glastonbury.
Actually being serious I'm not a festival goer - not a fan of large gatherings of people, shocker - and would not be surprised if the trend was very much Corbyn more than anything else, but I wonder how many people there just for the music got irritated when people start singing Corbyn anthems and the like.
Conservative MPs from across the party are threatening to vote down any attempt by Theresa May to lead them into a snap election, warning it would split the Tories and exacerbate the Brexit crisis.
In a sign of the collapse in authority suffered by the prime minister, cabinet ministers are among those warning that there will be a serious campaign by Conservative MPs to vote against an election headed by May, a move she hinted at last week to break the Brexit deadlock.
The threat of an election immediately angered both pro-Brexit and pro-Remain MPs. May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure one, meaning a serious rebellion by Tories could block it. May would then be forced to secure an election by backing a no-confidence vote in her own government, which only requires a simple majority of MPs. ...
I suspect May has now lost the confidence of her MPs to such an extent that she might be unable to engineer a no-confidence motion in her own government.
That's an astonishing set of polls - the usual caveats about outliers seem to apply - but aren't those the first to show an identifiable Labour lead even with a good TIG showing added ?
Also this will surely fire up the anti-electioners in the Tory party even more.
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
That's what I'm hearing oop North from Tory canvassers.
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
Polls starting to show a bit more churn - we had those inexplicable large Tory leads even without Tigger involvement (though it was around that time), and now most are back to level pegging and now this one.
Not sure who it helps. Labour are already hell bent on a GE, it's about all their MPs probably do agree on, and Tories should already be fearful of one and yet plenty are not, and none of it seems likely to factor into Brexit thinking much. I suppose it could push more people away from the deal, on the basis that if that passes the DUP really might bring down the government and that means a Corbyb premiership.
Just agree to a CU for heaven's sake, the government can probably limp to 2020 if that happens.
Depends. Maybe they would rather pass the ball to Jezza and Labour at this stage... And the longer they leave it the greater the risk that CUK really start to get a foothold.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINO
I am not convinced she would water anything down. Scottish politics is more left wing than Britain’s currently and all she wants is a second Independence referendum which would be her price for supporting Corbyn.
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
That's what I'm hearing oop North from Tory canvassers.
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
My mother, polite but firm Leaver, is not planning to vote ever again. That’s one lifelong Conservative lost.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
An election now will lead to a parliament even more remainey than the one we have now. Anti-Brexit campaigns, fired up by their recent successes, will promote tactical voting against Brexiters and this could well lead to a number of prominent Brexiters losing their seats, Bojo and IDS are particularly vulnerable. Labour and all other opposition parties will make commitments involving a second referendum, however qualified. So the likelihood is that a new parliament will contain a majority of MPs elected on the promise of a second vote. And leave voters, angry and demoralised, will drift away from a Tory party that many will say cannot be trusted to deliver, toward the Farage/Brexit party. So an early election is likely to lead ultimately to remain.
Boris is likely to win regardless, Hillingdon voted Leave and Labour would only win Uxbridge if they won a clear overall majority. IDS is more vulnerable as Chingford and Woodford Green is in Waltham Forest which voted Remain and Labour could gain Chingford even if they fall short of an overall majority
You underestimate how London is deserting the Tories. You can't treat three year old referendum data like it's the gospel.
Uxbridge is not, the Tories comfortably held Hillingdon in the local elections last year
That's an astonishing set of polls - the usual caveats about outliers seem to apply - but aren't those the first to show an identifiable Labour lead even with a good TIG showing added ?
Also this will surely fire up the anti-electioners in the Tory party even more.
For awhile perhaps. But I'm sure I recall several with identifiable Lab leads last year, of up to 4 or 5 even. For some bizarre reason the Tories have had most leads since January this year though.
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
That's what I'm hearing oop North from Tory canvassers.
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
My mother, polite but firm Leaver, is not planning to vote ever again. That’s one lifelong Conservative lost.
I'm a lifelong Tory activist who is wondering if I'll ever vote Tory again.
I'm lucky that I live in a Lab/LD marginal, my choice is easy here.
I never thought the British people would endorse Marxism.
Not sure its so much endorsing marxism as turning away from Conservatoves
Con have annoyed the Remainer voters so they're moving to TIG and are about to sell their Leaver voters down the river (they'll be off to the Brexit Party imminently)
Great news - not so much on the CU bit, who the hell cares at this point, but if it really does have substantial Tory support then their chances of some kind of resolution being agreed are better, even if, I suspect, a majority of Tories will still be against.
At the end of the day some of them have to be considering their plan B's now, even if the leaderships of both parties are not.
UKIP total high there too as it was with Opinium but more Tory to Labour movement with Deltapoll than Opinium showed, the latter tonight had the Tories neck and neck.
The clear lead for Boris shows voters want the next Tory leader to be a true Brexiteer now
The Deltapoll numbers give Labour 308, Tories 264, SNP 40, LDs 15, so Corbyn would still need SNP or LD support to be able to form a government and would fall short of an overall Labour majority
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINO
I am not convinced she would water anything down. Scottish politics is more left wing than Britain’s currently and all she wants is a second Independence referendum which would be her price for supporting Corbyn.
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialist
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named persons
I never thought the British people would endorse Marxism.
Not sure its so much endorsing marxism as turning away from Conservatoves
Con have annoyed the Remainer voters so they're moving to TIG and are about to sell their Leaver voters down the river (they'll be off to the Brexit Party imminently)
That seems a very snap analysis considering mere weeks ago the Tories had big leads in the polls. I found those inexplicable, and this poll less so, but as much as I too like to overreact to polling, it being good fun and all, I don't think even as an overreaction we can be sure the public are endording or turning away from anything.
The one thing we seem able to rely upon is the British public will do their best to return a confused set of parliamentarians.
Polls starting to show a bit more churn - we had those inexplicable large Tory leads even without Tigger involvement (though it was around that time), and now most are back to level pegging and now this one.
Not sure who it helps. Labour are already hell bent on a GE, it's about all their MPs probably do agree on, and Tories should already be fearful of one and yet plenty are not, and none of it seems likely to factor into Brexit thinking much. I suppose it could push more people away from the deal, on the basis that if that passes the DUP really might bring down the government and that means a Corbyb premiership.
Just agree to a CU for heaven's sake, the government can probably limp to 2020 if that happens.
One thing it shows is that despite all the media focus antisemitism really isn't a big issue to most people.
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
That's what I'm hearing oop North from Tory canvassers.
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
My mother, polite but firm Leaver, is not planning to vote ever again. That’s one lifelong Conservative lost.
Did she give any specifics as to who she finds at fault among the Conservatives ?
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
An election now will lead to a parliament even more remainey than the one we have now. Anti-Brexit campaigns, fired up by their recent successes, will promote tactical voting against Brexiters and this could well lead to a number of prominent Brexiters losing their seats, Bojo and IDS are particularly vulnerable. Labour and all other opposition parties will make commitments involving a second referendum, however qualified. So the likelihood is that a new parliament will contain a majority of MPs elected on the promise of a second vote. And leave voters, angry and demoralised, will drift away from a Tory party that many will say cannot be trusted to deliver, toward the Farage/Brexit party. So an early election is likely to lead ultimately to remain.
You underestimate how London is deserting the Tories. You can't treat three year old referendum data like it's the gospel.
Uxbridge is not, the Tories comfortably held Hillingdon in the local elections last year
I agree with you re- Uxbridge. Even before Boundary changes combined it with parts of leafy Ruislip, the Uxbridge seat has been trending Tory since the late 1950s.The former Uxbridge seat was a Labour-held marginal until 1959 when it went Tory. The Tories held on in 1964 and only lost narrowly in Labour's 1966 landslide. In 1970 the Tories easily recaptured it, and Labour has failed to win it again - not even in 1997.
The majority of Tory MPs will vote against a Customs Union, if it passes it will be with Labour, SNP and LD votes, difficult to see how May can ask the EU to renegotiate on that basis without losing a VONC leading to Corbyn PM with DUP, SNP and LD support or a general election
DUP are about to lose control of their whipping boys and girls. No point having power of the Tories if the Tories aren't in power. But that's principles for you.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINO
I am not convinced she would water anything down. Scottish politics is more left wing than Britain’s currently and all she wants is a second Independence referendum which would be her price for supporting Corbyn.
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialist
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named persons
Sturgeon's policies are little different from say Charles Kennedy's LDs were, she does not want to nationalise everything, cosy up to Hamas and turn us into Venezuala like Corbyn does
Polls starting to show a bit more churn - we had those inexplicable large Tory leads even without Tigger involvement (though it was around that time), and now most are back to level pegging and now this one.
Not sure who it helps. Labour are already hell bent on a GE, it's about all their MPs probably do agree on, and Tories should already be fearful of one and yet plenty are not, and none of it seems likely to factor into Brexit thinking much. I suppose it could push more people away from the deal, on the basis that if that passes the DUP really might bring down the government and that means a Corbyb premiership.
Just agree to a CU for heaven's sake, the government can probably limp to 2020 if that happens.
One thing it shows is that despite all the media focus antisemitism really isn't a big issue to most people.
It never has been. It's also not a big issue in the party either, given how they are happy to make Corbyn PM (no, saying he's awful in no way contradicts that).
Polls starting to show a bit more churn - we had those inexplicable large Tory leads even without Tigger involvement (though it was around that time), and now most are back to level pegging and now this one.
Not sure who it helps. Labour are already hell bent on a GE, it's about all their MPs probably do agree on, and Tories should already be fearful of one and yet plenty are not, and none of it seems likely to factor into Brexit thinking much. I suppose it could push more people away from the deal, on the basis that if that passes the DUP really might bring down the government and that means a Corbyb premiership.
Just agree to a CU for heaven's sake, the government can probably limp to 2020 if that happens.
One thing it shows is that despite all the media focus antisemitism really isn't a big issue to most people.
I think it will have the same effect on Labour voters as the IRA links in 2017, so not much outside a few constituencies
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
That's what I'm hearing oop North from Tory canvassers.
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
My mother, polite but firm Leaver, is not planning to vote ever again. That’s one lifelong Conservative lost.
I'm a lifelong Tory activist who is wondering if I'll ever vote Tory again.
I'm lucky that I live in a Lab/LD marginal, my choice is easy here.
OK with support holding up reasonably well....but everyone despairing of Brexit (I try to be mordantly humorous about it). But my fear is that many Tories simply won’t bother to vote at all....
That's what I'm hearing oop North from Tory canvassers.
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
My mother, polite but firm Leaver, is not planning to vote ever again. That’s one lifelong Conservative lost.
I'm a lifelong Tory activist who is wondering if I'll ever vote Tory again.
I'm lucky that I live in a Lab/LD marginal, my choice is easy here.
Voting for O'Mara as an independent?
Voting Lib Dem to oust O'Mara.
I'm prepared to vote swap with a Lib Dem to save a One Nation Tory in need of votes in another constituency.
Faced with a pointless Brexit and electoral annihilation, the Conservatives' best option by far is to offer a Deal/Remain referendum.
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
I've personally had the impression for a long time that when push came to most painful shove, the tories were likely to choose a referendum over all the other bad options available them, as one that was appalling, but not quite as appalling as the others for them. Anything can happen in the next half hour, as they say, of course..
In order to hold an election before 2022, does it require two-thirds of the total number of MPs to vote for it, or just two-thirds of those who vote? (ie. not including abstentions)
I never thought the British people would endorse Marxism.
Not sure its so much endorsing marxism as turning away from Conservatoves
Con have annoyed the Remainer voters so they're moving to TIG and are about to sell their Leaver voters down the river (they'll be off to the Brexit Party imminently)
It amounts to the same thing in the end if they put McDonnell in charge of the Treasury.
Faced with a pointless Brexit and electoral annihilation, the Conservatives best option by far is to offer a Deal/Remain referendum.
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
All roads lead to REMAIN eh William?
He's right though. It is becoming more and more difficult to see how Leave can be delivered. In fact I think it can only happen if the EU decide not to grant a further extension. But that is unlikely.
In order to hold an election before 2022, does it require two-thirds of the total number of MPs to vote for it, or just two-thirds of those who vote? (ie. not including abstentions)
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
There is no majority in the Commons as currently constituted for No Deal, on Monday the Commons will likely vote for permanent CU and that requires PM Corbyn to implement it as May cannot and hold her party together. Better for the Tories to go into opposition under Boris or Raab in my view on that basis on a hard Brexit platform and let Labour and the SNP go into government and deal with the economy and Brexit
In order to hold an election before 2022, does it require two-thirds of the total number of MPs to vote for it, or just two-thirds of those who vote? (ie. not including abstentions)
Two third of the House
Thanks, so that would mean about 117 Tories would have to positively vote for it.
Faced with a pointless Brexit and electoral annihilation, the Conservatives' best option by far is to offer a Deal/Remain referendum.
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
I've personally had the impression for a long time that when push came to most painful shove, the tories were likely to choose a referendum over all the other bad options available them, as one that was appalling, but not quite as appalling as the others for them. Anything can happen in the next half hour, as they say, of course..
Always thought they'd go for that in the end, but no longer do. They've held out too long.
In light of the impending Jezza revolution I wish to be addressed as "My Lord Comrade". Auchentennach Castle will be turned into a re-education centre for unreconstructed Liberal Democrats and the wider estate will be an open camp for the rump Tory traitors.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINO
I am not convinced she would water anything down. Scottish politics is more left wing than Britain’s currently and all she wants is a second Independence referendum which would be her price for supporting Corbyn.
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialist
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named persons
Sturgeon's policies are little different from say Charles Kennedy's LDs were, she does not want to nationalise everything, cosy up to Hamas and turn us into Venezuala like Corbyn does
Well, she wants to nationalise rail and energy and already has water in public hands so not convinced she wouldn’t nationalise like Corbyn. She certainly wants to tax land like Corbyn which has impoverished every country it’s ever been tried in. I’ll grant you Hamas.
The point is though she wouldn’t care what Corbyn did as long as she got her Independence referendum so if she does become a kingmaker, I just don’t see her as a restraining influence.
Someone must be writing a book right now about how the Tories went from a 25 point lead in the polls to the situation they're in today in the space of less than two years. IIRC they had those massive leads in April 2017.
In order to hold an election before 2022, does it require two-thirds of the total number of MPs to vote for it, or just two-thirds of those who vote? (ie. not including abstentions)
For the Commons to vote for an election a motion needs the support of 434 MPs - ie an abstention is the equivalent of votinng against it. A Vote of No Confidence in the Government would be the other route to an early election - after a two week delay to provide an opportunity to support an affirmative Confidence Vote in an alternative Government.
Labour need to embrace a soft Brexit and stop pushing for a second EU vote .
The only way to stop the country from completely imploding is a deal that delivers Brexit but keeps close relations with the EU .
Norway with a customs relationship but not CU will have enough alignment to reduce the border issues. This still allows the UK to do trade deals . The government can put together a package to address concerns over freedom of movement .
A registration system like most EU countries.
Legislation to stop undercutting.
Bringing back the migration impact fund .
Freedom of workers , need to show how they can support themselves for 3 months .
Preferential treatment for jobs for locals like Switzerland .
These combined would assuage concerns , it might not please all Leavers but do enough to get a large majority of the country behind it .
Norway , brings back fisheries and agriculture into UK control .
Removes the ECJ and replaces with the EFTA court .
Single market rules are reduced by around 65% .
EEA specifically has no mention of any political union or inference . It’s just an economic partnership .
A 52/48 result supports the above and sold properly could unite the country . Unfortunately the Peoples Vote continues to trash this option in a high stakes game of all or nothing .
I’m a staunch Remainer but people need to wake up to reality . The 2016 vote happened , we can’t erase this and have to find a way forward .
Unless compromises are made I fear the worst , I truly despair at what’s happened to the UK.
Boris joint top even on that poll on agree he has what it takes to be PM.
Javid may have the best net rating of all voters with Mori but most of the disagree voters will never vote Tory anyway
Perhaps Texit really is like Brexit. There'll be lots of infighting before the Tory party realises that none of the alternatives are better than the status quo, and they'll beg for a May extension.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
An election now will lead to a parliament even more remainey than the one we have now. Anti-Brexit campaigns, fain.
You underestimate how London is deserting the Tories. You can't treat three year old referendum data like it's the gospel.
Uxbridge is not, the Tories comfortably held Hillingdon in the local elections last year
I agree with you re- Uxbridge. Even before Boundary changes combined it with parts of leafy Ruislip, the Uxbridge seat has been trending Tory since the late 1950s.The former Uxbridge seat was a Labour-held marginal until 1959 when it went Tory. The Tories held on in 1964 and only lost narrowly in Labour's 1966 landslide. In 1970 the Tories easily recaptured it, and Labour has failed to win it again - not even in 1997.
Agreed, the Tories held Uxbridge in a 1997 by election even at the height of Blair mania
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
Even that I'd think. There's enough Tories who won't wear that outcome.
So even if, obviously, they are focusing on party before country, that one does not help them as much as they think.
Not obvious. A good Tory should always put country first.
Not saying they obviously should do that, but that it is obvious that is what they are doing. Maybe they can no longer tell the difference, but the biggest cause of the Brexit paralysis has been the lack of a plan B from the leadership, and that has been because a move 1 inch in any other direction has led to resignations threats, actual resignations, and scores and scores of angry letters.
They have definitely been only thinking of the Tory party.
If Corbyn wins, it'll be because so many people are annoyed about things like the fact that it's almost impossible to buy a house in many parts of the country, whereas 30 or 40 years ago it wasn't particularly difficult.
Comments
https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/03/30/at-a-forthcoming-by-election-potential-mps-try-to-ignore-brexit
[paywall]
Did anyone say Andrew Bridgen is a bellend?
In a sign of the collapse in authority suffered by the prime minister, cabinet ministers are among those warning that there will be a serious campaign by Conservative MPs to vote against an election headed by May, a move she hinted at last week to break the Brexit deadlock.
The threat of an election immediately angered both pro-Brexit and pro-Remain MPs. May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure one, meaning a serious rebellion by Tories could block it. May would then be forced to secure an election by backing a no-confidence vote in her own government, which only requires a simple majority of MPs.
Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan said: “If we have a general election before Brexit is resolved, it will only make things worse.”
Antoinette Sandbach, a Tory MP who backs another referendum being held on any deal agreed by parliament, said she would vote against calling an election. “The answer is not a general election, and I would vote against that. We need to find a way forward in parliament and then put that to the people in a confirmatory referendum.”
Mark Francois, a member of the European Research Group of pro-Brexit MPs, said there was “not a chance” that Conservative MPs would back an election under May. “‘Of course they wouldn’t – not after last time. And remember, she needs a super majority to do it.”
With contenders for the Tory leadership already plotting their route to replace May ahead of another perilous week for her premiership, it emerged that:
• Pro-Brexit ministers are threatening to resign should May agree to adopt a permanent customs union with the EU this week.
• A new group of moderate Conservatives, led by Amber Rudd, has been organising in an attempt to stop the party moving further to the right under a new leader.
• Several more Tories are poised to support the idea of a referendum on any deal eventually passed by parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/30/furious-tory-mps-tell-theresa-may-they-will-block-snap-election
Isn't he the arse who screamed out "fuck the tories" at some festival?
Pretty good one. I seem to recall the diversity stats for the European Parliament will take a bit of a hit once we leave. (if we leave).
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1112102501313114113
Geoff Norcott is the only openly Conservative stand up comedian on the circuit too.
Actually being serious I'm not a festival goer - not a fan of large gatherings of people, shocker - and would not be surprised if the trend was very much Corbyn more than anything else, but I wonder how many people there just for the music got irritated when people start singing Corbyn anthems and the like.
Also this will surely fire up the anti-electioners in the Tory party even more.
Thank you TM
My Labour friends are also positive but fear a low turnout because of Jez.
The Lib Dems are feeling optimistic (when aren't they) but I think they might have good reason this time.
Not sure who it helps. Labour are already hell bent on a GE, it's about all their MPs probably do agree on, and Tories should already be fearful of one and yet plenty are not, and none of it seems likely to factor into Brexit thinking much. I suppose it could push more people away from the deal, on the basis that if that passes the DUP really might bring down the government and that means a Corbyb premiership.
Just agree to a CU for heaven's sake, the government can probably limp to 2020 if that happens.
Election now might kill CUK at birth...
LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb
I'm lucky that I live in a Lab/LD marginal, my choice is easy here.
Con have annoyed the Remainer voters so they're moving to TIG and are about to sell their Leaver voters down the river (they'll be off to the Brexit Party imminently)
At the end of the day some of them have to be considering their plan B's now, even if the leaderships of both parties are not.
The clear lead for Boris shows voters want the next Tory leader to be a true Brexiteer now
The Deltapoll numbers give Labour 308, Tories 264, SNP 40, LDs 15, so Corbyn would still need SNP or LD support to be able to form a government and would fall short of an overall Labour majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=41&LIB=7&UKIP=7&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385?s=19
Those May locals look to be interesting.
The one thing we seem able to rely upon is the British public will do their best to return a confused set of parliamentarians.
TM has royally screwed the Tories
The key will to not do anything *too* radical in the first term and make sure they secure a second term...
After which...
DUP are about to lose control of their whipping boys and girls. No point having power of the Tories if the Tories aren't in power. But that's principles for you.
The Euro Elections in May look to be a Toory bloodbath.
A Boris led Tories could have a double digit lead over a Corbyn/SNP or Corbyn/LD government within a year
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
I'm prepared to vote swap with a Lib Dem to save a One Nation Tory in need of votes in another constituency.
So even if, obviously, they are focusing on party before country, that one does not help them as much as they think.
Power To The People.
Phew .....
The point is though she wouldn’t care what Corbyn did as long as she got her Independence referendum so if she does become a kingmaker, I just don’t see her as a restraining influence.
A Vote of No Confidence in the Government would be the other route to an early election - after a two week delay to provide an opportunity to support an affirmative Confidence Vote in an alternative Government.
The only way to stop the country from completely imploding is a deal that delivers Brexit but keeps close relations with the EU .
Norway with a customs relationship but not CU will have enough alignment to reduce the border issues. This still allows the UK to do trade deals . The government can put together a package to address concerns over freedom of movement .
A registration system like most EU countries.
Legislation to stop undercutting.
Bringing back the migration impact fund .
Freedom of workers , need to show how they can support themselves for 3 months .
Preferential treatment for jobs for locals like Switzerland .
These combined would assuage concerns , it might not please all Leavers but do enough to get a large majority of the country behind it .
Norway , brings back fisheries and agriculture into UK control .
Removes the ECJ and replaces with the EFTA court .
Single market rules are reduced by around 65% .
EEA specifically has no mention of any political union or inference . It’s just an economic partnership .
A 52/48 result supports the above and sold properly could unite the country . Unfortunately the Peoples Vote continues to trash this option in a high stakes game of all or nothing .
I’m a staunch Remainer but people need to wake up to reality . The 2016 vote happened , we can’t erase this and have to find a way forward .
Unless compromises are made I fear the worst , I truly despair at what’s happened to the UK.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1112108978077605888?s=19
They have definitely been only thinking of the Tory party.
All else is slow death.