Someone must be writing a book right now about how the Tories went from a 25 point lead in the polls to the situation they're in today in the space of less than two years. IIRC they had those massive leads in April 2017.
It was David Cameron who screwed the Tories, TMay was just the unlucky person left standing when the music stopped
Correct. Cameron left the Tories in a massive hole. And May has spent the past three years digging deeper and deeper. Much too deep for them to climb out now.
In light of the impending Jezza revolution I wish to be addressed as "My Lord Comrade". Auchentennach Castle will be turned into a re-education centre for unreconstructed Liberal Democrats and the wider estate will be an open camp for the rump Tory traitors.
The option for the Cons is quite simple - no deal, new leader and 3 years to focus on the post austerity Uk.
All else is slow death.
How do they last three years after no dealing? WIth the DUP they have an notional effective majority now of, what, 2? Do we really think no other Tories will jump ship if we no deal, not even 1? In the event of no deal would even Tiggers and indys who will probably lose their seats really prop the Tories up?
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
I think if May thought it was possible to force through No Deal, she would have done it for yesterday. Simple fact is there aren't the numbers for it in Parliament.
Faced with a pointless Brexit and electoral annihilation, the Conservatives' best option by far is to offer a Deal/Remain referendum.
Then when Remain wins, purge the nutters.
If that happens the Tories would not just lose to Corbyn they would not even be the official opposition, that would be Farage's new Brexit Party
I think that might only happen if the Tories followed through on the second part of WilliamGlenn's advice.
From a Tory point of view, both an election or no-deal would seem to lead to a Labour government in short order. A referendum is the only option that may weaken them, but doesn't guarantee that.
If Corbyn wins, it'll be because so many people are annoyed about things like the fact that it's almost impossible to buy a house in many parts of the country, whereas 30 or 40 years ago it wasn't particularly difficult.
You may be right. But if their expectation is that Corbyn will resolve that they will be sadly mistaken.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
If May wants her Deal and Brexit, that is all she has to do. Simples.
Someone must be writing a book right now about how the Tories went from a 25 point lead in the polls to the situation they're in today in the space of less than two years. IIRC they had those massive leads in April 2017.
The 25% lead was an outlier.
But double digit leads were not.
But there were 13 polls showing Tory leads in the range of 20% - 25%.
I think May leads the Tories into the next general election which maybe within weeks, if she wins she has a mandate for her Deal and stays PM and Tory leader, if she loses the Tories pick a hard Brexiteer as leader of the Opposition
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINO
I am not convinced she wourbyn.
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialist
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named persons
Sturgs
Well, she wants to nationalise rail and energy and already has water in public hands so not convinced she wouldn’t nationalise like Corbyn. She certainly wants to tax land like Corbyn which has impoverished every country it’s ever been tried in. I’ll grant you Hamas.
The point is though she wouldn’t care what Corbyn did as long as she got her Independence referendum so if she does become a kingmaker, I just don’t see her as a restraining influence.
So what, even Peter Hitchens and many Tory voters want to nationalise Rail and energy and water. Corbyn would try and nationalise everything from the banks to the supermarkets if he got the chance, never mind just public utilities.
The problem for Sturgeon is she won't get Brexit unless No Deal in all likelihood on current polling and she can hardly demand Corbyn delivers hard Brexit, so if as expected she demands Corbyn pursues SM and CU BINO ironically that will lessen the chances of Scottish independence while the sight of the SNP in government forcing BINO or even revoke will only increase English nationalist sentiment amongst English Leave voters
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
No party that focuses exclusively on Brexit to the exclusion of all else as May has required of the Tories is going to win a general election, no matter whether its no deal, no Brexit or something in between.
May’s successor can’t come soon enough and desperately needs to develop a broad policy platform. The next election will be about the economy, jobs, standard of living, NHS, immigration etc as it always is.
When even Hodges thinks Corbyn is in a strong position, I think that sends its own message. The DUP have helped deliver in a likely Corbyn government. Their principles will help them deal with that I am sure.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.
In light of the impending Jezza revolution I wish to be addressed as "My Lord Comrade". Auchentennach Castle will be turned into a re-education centre for unreconstructed Liberal Democrats and the wider estate will be an open camp for the rump Tory traitors.
I’m sorry but those thinking no deal will save the Tories are missing a glaring problem .
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
I think if May thought it was possible to force through No Deal, she would have done it for yesterday. Simple fact is there aren't the numbers for it in Parliament.
Technically she doesn't need the approval of parliament, she just needs to fail at prime ministering. If she doesn't send in a request for an extension by April 12th then it's No Deal.
She probably loses a VONC the next day, but it'll be too late to go back.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.
I’m sorry but those thinking no deal will save the Tories are missing a glaring problem .
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
I’m sorry but those thinking no deal will save the Tories are missing a glaring problem .
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
The no deal MPs clearly have lost the plot .
And there's 170 of them! It appears to be the preferred plan B of the tory party by a big margin.
God I hope the Commons can come up with something on Monday.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
No party that focuses exclusively on Brexit to the exclusion of all else as May has required of the Tories is going to win a general election, no matter whether its no deal, no Brexit or something in between.
May’s successor can’t come soon enough and desperately needs to develop a broad policy platform. The next election will be about the economy, jobs, standard of living, NHS, immigration etc as it always is.
You are right. Peter Hennessy made the point yesterday in Any Questions that governments do not win single-issue elections.
If she lost, Corbyn and McDonnell would be in Downing St and Brexit would be irrelevant because we’d all be in deep in the mire.
Sturgeon would almost certainly be the Kingmaker in reality and she would water down the socialism while ratcheting up the BINO
I am not convinced she wourbyn.
Sturgeon is a Social Democrat not a socialist
Look at her policies - higher taxation, more state control, named persons
Sturgs
The point is though she wouldn’t care what Corbyn did as long as she got her Independence referendum so if she does become a kingmaker, I just don’t see her as a restraining influence.
So what, even Peter Hitchens and many Tory voters want to nationalise Rail and energy and water. Corbyn would try and nationalise everything from the banks to the supermarkets if he got the chance, never mind just public utilities.
The problem for Sturgeon is she won't get Brexit unless No Deal in all likelihood on current polling and she can hardly demand Corbyn delivers hard Brexit, so if as expected she demands Corbyn pursues SM and CU BINO ironically that will lessen the chances of Scottish independence while the sight of the SNP in government forcing BINO or even revoke will only increase English nationalist sentiment amongst English Leave voters
Hitchens is foolish then because nationalisation is not the answer to the problems that exist in any industry let alone rail and utilities.
No deal makes Scottish Independence very difficult - out of the EU and out of the rest of Britain market. Salmonds predictions for oil have been well and truly debunked.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.
It might just scrape through if half the payroll vote backed it, but then you get into an argument about what should be on the ballot.
But seriously, no PM is going to propose something that 98% of her party oppose on a free vote.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.
It does if the PM whips for it. Not saying she would, but the option's there if she wants it.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
The justification for another referendum must be that we now know more about what the alternatives imply. That is obviously true for "Deal". But "Remain" has been left unexamined. It is certainly not the status quo ante.
Tories are in a trap. All roads lead to Corbyn – except lancing the Eurexit boil by leaving without a deal.
That one also leads to Corbyn.
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
The other problem is that only 8 Conservatives support it.
I don't know why the PV line is pushed so hard, it doesn't have the parliamentary numbers.
It might just scrape through if half the payroll vote backed it, but then you get into an argument about what should be on the ballot.
But seriously, no PM is going to propose something that 98% of her party oppose on a free vote.
Customs Union is closer, even though it's a real Ramsey McDonald option for the Tories at least it has more than 8 in favour. We'll have to see how it does on the indicative votes, Monday though.
Can only hope Macron puts us out of our misery. Veni veni Emmanuel!
I honestly think that this is our best option now. The EU should announce that since the UK is incapable of making up its mind they will decide for it. The UK will leave on 11th April with no deal or 22nd May with the deal already negotiated. The UK could still opt to revoke but only by the earlier date.
Our politicians have proven themselves to be completely useless and incompetent. It is troubling.
The option for the Cons is quite simple - no deal, new leader and 3 years to focus on the post austerity Uk.
All else is slow death.
How do they last three years after no dealing? WIth the DUP they have an notional effective majority now of, what, 2? Do we really think no other Tories will jump ship if we no deal, not even 1? In the event of no deal would even Tiggers and indys who will probably lose their seats really prop the Tories up?
Tiggers and indys
They will they are desperate to avoid the day of reckoning
Comments
But double digit leads were not.
Or, quick death, if you prefer...
Total organizational shitshow, leavers and remainers alike turn on the Conservative Party for its incompetent planning, scramble to set up smaller deals which are just as contentious as the WA.
The one that doesn't lead to Corbyn is to call a Remain vs Deal referendum and win it. But this would make for a tense cabinet meeting, to put it mildly.
From a Tory point of view, both an election or no-deal would seem to lead to a Labour government in short order. A referendum is the only option that may weaken them, but doesn't guarantee that.
The problem for Sturgeon is she won't get Brexit unless No Deal in all likelihood on current polling and she can hardly demand Corbyn delivers hard Brexit, so if as expected she demands Corbyn pursues SM and CU BINO ironically that will lessen the chances of Scottish independence while the sight of the SNP in government forcing BINO or even revoke will only increase English nationalist sentiment amongst English Leave voters
May’s successor can’t come soon enough and desperately needs to develop a broad policy platform. The next election will be about the economy, jobs, standard of living, NHS, immigration etc as it always is.
Veni veni Emmanuel!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/iain-duncan-smith-to-join-14210921?s1
File under things that won't happen.
Heidi Allen specifically said she wouldn't vote for a GE - and she is interim leader of TIG.
No deal only saves them if it’s not a car crash . Do people think those currently saying no deal is fine will thank the Tories if the economy heads south . The only way they can get through this is with a deal.
The no deal MPs clearly have lost the plot .
She probably loses a VONC the next day, but it'll be too late to go back.
God I hope the Commons can come up with something on Monday. If it was the only way to avoid no deal though?
No deal makes Scottish Independence very difficult - out of the EU and out of the rest of Britain market. Salmonds predictions for oil have been well and truly debunked.
But seriously, no PM is going to propose something that 98% of her party oppose on a free vote.
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361?s=19
Our politicians have proven themselves to be completely useless and incompetent. It is troubling.
They will they are desperate to avoid the day of reckoning