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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Does anyone actually think May will bring her proposal for a vote on Monday? If it is a do or die situation those who have held their bladders until now won't wet themselves Sunday night and suddenly decide they need to back the deal. She'll pull it, which will only embolden the no dealer holdouts further - she'll be losing their votes as they see the chances of stopping Brexit receding, without gaining any further votes.

    As much as I'd wish for this to be over with end of next week, I see Parliament finally having had enough of May.

    And then what
    Even more chaos, probably resulting in no deal.

    Wishing the deal through won't work. No dealers will lose incentive to vote for it every day. Where are the 75 votes she needs (assuming no switchers) coming from?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    kjh said:

    LucyJones said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

    Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

    I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Unless the number gets huge I don't think it matters one iota, but it is fun watching you get exasperated by it. It is the People's Vote march all over again. I assume you are not going to challenge the numbers though on this are you? :)
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Nope. That was in line with all the professional estimates, including neutral posters on here.
    Go on give us a link to 270K that wasn't posted by you.
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/amp/
    Lin
    Freedom of Information request here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/what_is_the_estimate_of_attendee

    They say 25000, but I assume they missed a zero off. So 250 000.
    Estimate of 1000 attending rival pro-credit march, which presumably also was missing a zero.
    He wants to find reasons to shoot down any lower estimate of numbers.

    He isn’t interested in facts.
    :) I don't give a toss what the number are. I'm just winding you up. You really don't get it do you? Do my comments and other like 'Don't feed the troll CS' ring any bells with you at all? Do you not see you are being selective? Comments like 'He isn't interested in fact' just show how you are deluding yourself when you get into some arguments when there are so many estimates that disagree with yours. They may be wrong, but you shouldn't just believe the ones you want to believe and dismiss others.
    Oh dear, someone needs their evening hot bath and mug of Horlicks badly tonight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019
    How is she getting past bercows ruling?
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The ERG must vote against, surely - defeat leads either to no deal or no May, following a longer extension or revocation.
    May must be the worst tactician in recent British political history. Seriously. Closely followed by Corbyn.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    matt said:

    nico67 said:

    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.

    You may think she’s poor, out of her depth and the like. That would be justified. Calling her vile just marks you out as a verminous excuse for a human being.
    I stand by my comments she is a vile soulless woman without a shred of humanity or empathy . She feigns concern, her vindictive Home Office policies and her disgusting queue jumper comments aimed at fellow Europeans shows the real woman .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    I am, ahem, no fan of Mrs May but I can understand why she snapped. It’s not the action of a prime minister but if the whole world is against you at some point you must just think go fuck yourselves.

    MPs of course will think the same.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    If May loses MV3 surely she *has* to go at that point, regardless of whether it's no deal or a long extension.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    Every cloud has a silver lining... :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Oliver said:

    She's a fucking sociopath. She's going to take us all down with her and it's genuinely starting to get a bit scary now.

    I can't lie to you about your chances... but you have my sympathies.
  • Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Some rather nasty and unpleasant comments on here tonight.

    FWIW my decidedly apolitical wife has just, in amongst feeding the baby, watched her statement on the nine o’clock news.

    She expressed her anger at the faffing of the MPs, her admiration of Theresa May's tenacity and poured scorn on those who constantly criticise her who couldn’t begin to do her job, or even a small part of it.

    Make of that what you will.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just watched Theresa May's speech , and - to be honest - did not think it was so awful. From comments made here, I was expecting it to be a good deal worse than that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    dots said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    everyone gone mad?

    Game over. May wins.
    MPs will never ever believe that is the only choice. Something will come up, they'll vote of no confidence, suspend standing orders and overrule, etc etc. Many of these ideas are tricky or downright implausible, but if we judge actions and not words, MPs are not guaranteed to be willing to take any action to definitely prevent no deal. Have the DUP come on board with the deal yet? Have 30+ Labour MPs?

    They'll either succeed in forcing an extension, and on to no Brexit, or have no deal. And MPs have demonstrated that is a price they are willing to pay, for us to pay.
    Which is why "as early as Monday" is smokescreen for gullible MPs. MV3 is Brexit Eve.

    The bad blood means May resigns straight after.
    She really is risking not making it that far...
    Was this strategy agreed in Cabinet? It is being reported she met with ERG before that statement.
    Who is driving?
    Cooper/Letwin needs some Parliamentary time during which MPs can 'take control' and get something passed. Given the opposition and scope for procedural tricks, May is probably safe if she can spin the MV3 out until Wednesday.

    Really the only way out is to VONC the government on Monday, requiring a very brave leap by the Tory remainers, creating some sort of one-job government to at least get a longer extension sorted next week. I can't see MPs having the courage or co-ordination to get this done.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    Letwin/Cooper or similar will be moved as an amendment and will carry. May breaking her word after the last time will ensure that.

    Edit/ hence May won't take a vote on Monday. Brexit Eve, is when it'll be
    I think May is determined to deliver brexit whether it’s her deal or no deal . She has played this right , because she is thinking about the damage to democracy and her party if they don’t deliver brexit. I don’t think her deal will pass so we default to no deal which I now believe she will allow to happen as the alternative is the destruction of the tories and faith in democracy . She will not countenance revoke or euref2. So she has prepared the ground with the public tonight , if her deal fails she can blame an indecisive parliament for it . Though once we are over the line of leaving I think she will step down or be forced to
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    If she has numbers to support her deal she doesn't need to do anything to get past it, she would have the votes to suspend standing orders to just do it again. Of course, she doesn't have the numbers for that or she'd have done it already.
    Scott_P said:
    It baffles me how a Cabinet Minister can say such a thing and not resign. What exactly do they think they are achieving remaining in the Cabinet of someone pursuing a course of action they think is so doomed to failure.
    nico67 said:

    matt said:

    nico67 said:

    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.

    You may think she’s poor, out of her depth and the like. That would be justified. Calling her vile just marks you out as a verminous excuse for a human being.
    I stand by my comments she is a vile soulless woman without a shred of humanity or empathy . She feigns concern, her vindictive Home Office policies and her disgusting queue jumper comments aimed at fellow Europeans shows the real woman .
    'without a shred of humanity'? She's an awful PM, but that sort of opinion reflects far more on you than her.
  • Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Good news, glad all is well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    Possibly the change in implantation date is sufficient to rule that it is a different proposal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Remainers starting to understand that for nearly three years they've been played! :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Well turn the effing tv/radio/twitter off and have a few pints of chassagne. That’s great news.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    I didn't hear May's words this evening but the comments on here speak volumes.

    For all those who claim voting for the WA is the only way to save Brexit so is voting against it now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    justin124 said:

    I have just watched Theresa May's speech , and - to be honest - did not think it was so awful. From comments made here, I was expecting it to be a good deal worse than that.


    It was fine. If it was the people who were voting on MV3.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer

    That's great news.

    Congrats. :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Criticising playing the blame game while playing the blame game, interesting comment.
  • Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    That is the only important news and I am so pleased for you and your family
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Hurrah for you. That is good news.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Scott_P said:
    Except MPs haven't done their job.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,586
    Is it just an impression or are senior Labour figures being very quiet in the last few hours?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Hurrah on the big C news
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    Scott_P said:
    Except MPs haven't done their job.
    Neither has she.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    TOPPING said:

    Listening to the speech again why ask for an extension in the first place?

    If there is a vote next week and it passes then she could ask for the technical extension then, surely. Or is the point of the request now only for a technical extension?

    The sequencing was clever as the EU have laid the conditions down for an extension to 30th June and that condition is TM's deal passes. They have helped her greatly but there is an argument whether this whole thing has been choreographed between London and the EU.

    Many doubt that TM has the machiavellian skill set to do it and we will have to wait for the publication of books in due course

    The one thing it has created is a stampede of panic by remainers who see a real prospect of their dream failing
    Threats from the EU are hardly likely to encourage Brexiteers to support Mays deal. And the idea that the EU are in the business of helping the woman who they distrust and despise is far fetched.

    As for the books, May will never write her memoirs (just as Cameron will never finish his). Who wants to revisit a career which ended in unmitigated and self-inflicted disaster.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    Possibly the change in implantation date is sufficient to rule that it is a different proposal.
    I'm not sure changing the date on it would make it a *substantial* change. The additional documents May asked for in the A50 extension letter might on the basis MV2 was considered different enough, but who knows if there is anything remotely meaningful in them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    TOPPING said:

    I am, ahem, no fan of Mrs May but I can understand why she snapped. It’s not the action of a prime minister but if the whole world is against you at some point you must just think go fuck yourselves.

    MPs of course will think the same.

    Quite.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Floater said:
    Andrea Leadsom is poison. Sadly she has children.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Very good to hear that - it must have been of some anxiety to you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    If May loses MV3 surely she *has* to go at that point, regardless of whether it's no deal or a long extension.

    VONC her tommorow while she is in Brussels.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    algarkirk said:

    Is it just an impression or are senior Labour figures being very quiet in the last few hours?

    What political benefit do they have to say much right now?

    Scott_P said:
    Except MPs haven't done their job.
    Neither has she.
    True, but it does make his comment hypocritical because MPs have had chances to take more control, and have options to stop May, but have chosen not to, but he is ignoring that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Government crest in place.

    It’s little touches like that which I love about this country. No one else takes the separation of government and party as seriously as we do
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    kle4 said:

    The BBC headline seems rather divorced from the opinion on here:

    "Theresa May has appealed to the public over Brexit, telling them she understood they had had enough, and adding: "I am on your side."

    Speaking from Downing Street, the prime minister criticised the actions of MPs, saying it was "high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps."

    That's just reporting what happened, there's nothing there to contradict the opinion here that it was a pointless thing to say given it is MPs she needs.
    Yes, but that's all most people will see.

    Besides, it's frequently case that the reaction becomes the story. That hasn't happened so far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    IanB2 said:

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    Possibly the change in implantation date is sufficient to rule that it is a different proposal.
    I'm not sure changing the date on it would make it a *substantial* change. The additional documents May asked for in the A50 extension letter might on the basis MV2 was considered different enough, but who knows if there is anything remotely meaningful in them.
    Given it is entirely up to Bercow it doesn't matter whether it would be a substantial change, it matters whether it is so substantial that even he would not dare to claim it was not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    That's a relief. Stomach cancer is no joke.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    kjh said:

    LucyJones said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584


    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Unless the number gets huge I don't think it matters one iota, but it is fun watching you get exasperated by it. It is the People's Vote march all over again. I assume you are not going to challenge the numbers though on this are you? :)
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Nope. That was in line with all the professional estimates, including neutral posters on here.
    Go on give us a link to 270K that wasn't posted by you.
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/amp/
    Lin
    Freedom of Information request here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/what_is_the_estimate_of_attendee

    They say 25000, but I assume they missed a zero off. So 250 000.
    Estimate of 1000 attending rival pro-credit march, which presumably also was missing a zero.
    He wants to find reasons to shoot down any lower estimate of numbers.

    He isn’t interested in facts.
    :) I don't give a toss what the number are. I'm just winding you up. You really don't get it do you? Do my comments and other like 'Don't feed the troll CS' ring any bells with you at all? Do you not see you are being selective? Comments like 'He isn't interested in fact' just show how you are deluding yourself when you get into some arguments when there are so many estimates that disagree with yours. They may be wrong, but you shouldn't just believe the ones you want to believe and dismiss others.
    Oh dear, someone needs their evening hot bath and mug of Horlicks badly tonight.
    I tried to be helpful in my other post about how you come across with this stuff. That reply like the last just ignored the contents of my post altogether and was just bizarre.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer...

    Oh, that is good news!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    The BBC headline seems rather divorced from the opinion on here:

    "Theresa May has appealed to the public over Brexit, telling them she understood they had had enough, and adding: "I am on your side."

    Speaking from Downing Street, the prime minister criticised the actions of MPs, saying it was "high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps."

    That's just reporting what happened, there's nothing there to contradict the opinion here that it was a pointless thing to say given it is MPs she needs.
    Yes, but that's all most people will see.

    Yes, but the public are irrelevant to the matter at hand. If MPs were to reject MV3, would the public who saw that statement about it being time to take a decision be angry about that? No. And May presumably knows that and won't bring her vote on Monday.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Congrats on the good news. If you have an issue, I hope they now know what it is and can treat accordingly.

    (A friend is going through something atm where they can tell him what it isn't, but not what it is - which is making the treatment rather hit-and-miss.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Congrats! look after yourself, no-one can burn the candle at both ends forever.
  • Oliver said:

    She's a fucking sociopath. She's going to take us all down with her and it's genuinely starting to get a bit scary now.

    BOO! Sorry, didn't mean to scare you.
  • Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    Possibly the change in implantation date is sufficient to rule that it is a different proposal.
    I'm not sure changing the date on it would make it a *substantial* change. The additional documents May asked for in the A50 extension letter might on the basis MV2 was considered different enough, but who knows if there is anything remotely meaningful in them.
    Given it is entirely up to Bercow it doesn't matter whether it would be a substantial change, it matters whether it is so substantial that even he would not dare to claim it was not.
    And it needs to be a different proposition. The date is quite fundamental, and leaving in June is different from leaving in March, especially as there will need to be some tweaks to the deal to accommodate the new timetable. I don't see how Bercow could refuse, especially given the other Erskine May criterion of facilitating the government's business.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Fuck Brexit, Love TSE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Hopefully whatever led to cancer even seeming to be a possibility is being resolved too. Best wishes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    GIN1138 said:

    Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    Every cloud has a silver lining... :D
    He's banging on about another referendum yet doesn't want to implement the last one. If Corbyn wins the next election, do we need a confirmatory vote for his hard left agenda ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The BBC headline seems rather divorced from the opinion on here:

    "Theresa May has appealed to the public over Brexit, telling them she understood they had had enough, and adding: "I am on your side."

    Speaking from Downing Street, the prime minister criticised the actions of MPs, saying it was "high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps."

    That's just reporting what happened, there's nothing there to contradict the opinion here that it was a pointless thing to say given it is MPs she needs.
    Yes, but that's all most people will see.

    Yes, but the public are irrelevant to the matter at hand. If MPs were to reject MV3, would the public who saw that statement about it being time to take a decision be angry about that? No. And May presumably knows that and won't bring her vote on Monday.
    "Yes, but the public are irrelevant to the matter at hand."

    Enough said, ;)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.
    Your father was right and happily vindicated by your all clear. Great news.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Excellent news TSE. You must be very relieved tonight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.
    Big relief all round, good to hear. Cut back on the chilli powder?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    It gets quite hard to follow in all the fog, but wasn't there recent polling that suggests her deal is actually unpopular with the public?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Foxy said:

    If May loses MV3 surely she *has* to go at that point, regardless of whether it's no deal or a long extension.

    VONC her tommorow while she is in Brussels.
    VONC = No deal Brexit, I reckon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    Possibly the change in implantation date is sufficient to rule that it is a different proposal.
    I'm not sure changing the date on it would make it a *substantial* change. The additional documents May asked for in the A50 extension letter might on the basis MV2 was considered different enough, but who knows if there is anything remotely meaningful in them.
    Given it is entirely up to Bercow it doesn't matter whether it would be a substantial change, it matters whether it is so substantial that even he would not dare to claim it was not.
    And it needs to be a different proposition. The date is quite fundamental, and leaving in June is different from leaving in March, especially as there will need to be some tweaks to the deal to accommodate the new timetable. I don't see how Bercow could refuse, especially given the other Erskine May criterion of facilitating the government's business.
    We know he only cares about Erskine May when it suits him, he would refuse it without shame if he thought it would aid his political cause. So would it aid his cause to say no? Given how implausible it seems that MV3 will pass - no dealer support is surely flagging, some like Clarke were already iffy on backing it again as well - probably not, so he should say yes.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    I think Theresa May imagines herself doing something like Trump with these speeches. It's clear populism in that she's publicly going over the heads of MP's to her core vote, like Trump ; and like Trump she uses that to recharge and reassure both herself and them. Also like Trump, it seeks to intimidate any people in the way, and using the relationship she perceives between her and them to do that - MP's, Congressmen, Washington , "Westminster". So, as mentioned earlier, any depth of content doesn't matter much.

    Unfortunately for her, as with Trump and his wall, she needs the goodwill of lawmakers to get her vision through - and in her case, she needs MP's much more desperately, to stop her career crashing down around her at any time soon.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.
    That’s great news and puts everything else into perspective.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902

    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.

    Really pleased to hear this. Treat yourself to an evening of T'pau - that's what I would do.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Much love and goodwill TSE, celebrate the good news and Brexit bedamned!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    I thought Mays speech was ok.. not great but ok
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.
    Wise advice; and take care.
  • kle4 said:

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Hopefully whatever led to cancer even seeming to be a possibility is being resolved too. Best wishes
    We think it might be an ulcer or late development of lactose intolerance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The BBC headline seems rather divorced from the opinion on here:

    "Theresa May has appealed to the public over Brexit, telling them she understood they had had enough, and adding: "I am on your side."

    Speaking from Downing Street, the prime minister criticised the actions of MPs, saying it was "high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps."

    That's just reporting what happened, there's nothing there to contradict the opinion here that it was a pointless thing to say given it is MPs she needs.
    Yes, but that's all most people will see.

    Yes, but the public are irrelevant to the matter at hand. If MPs were to reject MV3, would the public who saw that statement about it being time to take a decision be angry about that? No. And May presumably knows that and won't bring her vote on Monday.
    "Yes, but the public are irrelevant to the matter at hand."

    Enough said, ;)
    Until such time as MPs decide to involve us again it is true!
    nielh said:

    It gets quite hard to follow in all the fog, but wasn't there recent polling that suggests her deal is actually unpopular with the public?

    It's been trashed by remainers and leavers for 6 months, I'm surprised it has had as much support as it has. But yes, it's unpopular. However, in fairness, much opposition to it will be because people want other things, not all of which are viable in the manner people may think.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,435
    edited March 2019

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    It's an amazing feeling, isn't it? I had all the symptoms , had the two week urgent referral, had a cameras inserted both ends (not the same camera!) and then found out I had a moderately serious hiatus hernia and probable irritable bowel syndrome. Doctor told me to cut out my 3 main food groups-Alcohol, caffeine and chocolate. The wagon often hits a bumpy patch...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TOPPING said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just watched Theresa May's speech , and - to be honest - did not think it was so awful. From comments made here, I was expecting it to be a good deal worse than that.


    It was fine. If it was the people who were voting on MV3.
    Now there's an idea...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    How is she getting past bercows ruling?

    Possibly the change in implantation date is sufficient to rule that it is a different proposal.
    I'm not sure changing the date on it would make it a *substantial* change. The additional documents May asked for in the A50 extension letter might on the basis MV2 was considered different enough, but who knows if there is anything remotely meaningful in them.
    Given it is entirely up to Bercow it doesn't matter whether it would be a substantial change, it matters whether it is so substantial that even he would not dare to claim it was not.
    True. If it's critically important we vote on the deal then it's critically important we vote on the deal, lets not arse around trying to pretend changing the date on it makes it any different.
  • FF43 said:

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Jesus, I had no idea you were facing that.

    That's terrific news and far more important than this stuff.

    Log off and enjoy yourself.
    It was a scary 9 days or so.

    I vomited last week, and there was a hint of blood, coupled with a bit of unexplained weight loss and my father insisted I had to get checked out.
    Your father was right and happily vindicated by your all clear. Great news.
    Having a doctor (even retired) as your father is great.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    kle4 said:

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Hopefully whatever led to cancer even seeming to be a possibility is being resolved too. Best wishes
    We think it might be an ulcer or late development of lactose intolerance.
    Might have to go vegan ;-)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    To be honest, I don’t think that’s a bad statement by May.

    She’s echoing the frustrations of normal people back to the nation.

    I expect it will badly bomb with MPs though, and probably lose her votes.

    But when normal people are polled they fucking hate May's deal.
  • Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    It's an amazing feeling, isn't it? I had all the symptoms , had the two week urgent referral, had cameras inserted both ends and then found out I had a moderately serious hiatus hernia and probable irritable bowel syndrome. Doctor told me to cut out my 3 main food groups-Alcohol, caffeine and chocolate. The wagon often hits a bumpy patch...
    Oh God yes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    Letwin/Cooper or similar will be moved as an amendment and will carry. May breaking her word after the last time will ensure that.

    Edit/ hence May won't take a vote on Monday. Brexit Eve, is when it'll be
    I think May is determined to deliver brexit whether it’s her deal or no deal . She has played this right , because she is thinking about the damage to democracy and her party if they don’t deliver brexit. I don’t think her deal will pass so we default to no deal which I now believe she will allow to happen as the alternative is the destruction of the tories and faith in democracy . She will not countenance revoke or euref2. So she has prepared the ground with the public tonight , if her deal fails she can blame an indecisive parliament for it . Though once we are over the line of leaving I think she will step down or be forced to
    No deal is guaranteed to break the Tories.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    She's living on a prayer that she'll get the deal through, regarding an extension it doesn't make a difference if we make it or not. In her cabinet she thinks that we've got each other to stick to a line and that's a lot, so on to another meaningful vote we'll give it a shot.
    Keep the faith, Mr Thompson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Oliver said:
    If parliament does not remove her then they do not agree she is being hostile toward them.
  • kle4 said:

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Hopefully whatever led to cancer even seeming to be a possibility is being resolved too. Best wishes
    We think it might be an ulcer or late development of lactose intolerance.
    Might have to go vegan ;-)
    Never.

    I love fish too much.

    Since it is the lagershed.

    What do soya beans and dildos have in common?

    Both get used as substitute meat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,183
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    Does anyone actually think May will bring her proposal for a vote on Monday? If it is a do or die situation those who have held their bladders until now won't wet themselves Sunday night and suddenly decide they need to back the deal. She'll pull it, which will only embolden the no dealer holdouts further - she'll be losing their votes as they see the chances of stopping Brexit receding, without gaining any further votes.

    As much as I'd wish for this to be over with end of next week, I see Parliament finally having had enough of May.

    Monday Letwin and Cooper will try and force through another amendment along with Boles, it is possible the Commons could amend the political declaration to aim for a Single Market and Customs Union BINO end point and then vote through the Withdrawal Agreement on that basis
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    TudorRose said:

    Foxy said:

    If May loses MV3 surely she *has* to go at that point, regardless of whether it's no deal or a long extension.

    VONC her tommorow while she is in Brussels.
    VONC = No deal Brexit, I reckon.
    This is going down to the wire . If she delays the vote until next Thursday if it falls we no deal brexit on Friday. That should concentrate minds . TSE good to hear your okay , it’s scary when you get symptoms like that and such a relief when it’s not the big C. BTW what chance now do you reckon for a no deal brexit ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    TudorRose said:

    Foxy said:

    If May loses MV3 surely she *has* to go at that point, regardless of whether it's no deal or a long extension.

    VONC her tommorow while she is in Brussels.
    VONC = No deal Brexit, I reckon.
    No Deal ain't so bad.

  • Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Great news about the lack of the big C
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Floater said:
    Andrea Leadsom is poison. Sadly she has children.
    I’m no fan of Leadsom but here is the quote

    It’s absolutely vital that children do grow up understanding the society they live in and they grow up tolerant, seeking equality and respecting differences… I think it is the case that you have to allow parents to choose to withdraw their children up to a certain age, but at the same time in order to have an equal society there comes a point where children do need to understand the social norms around them

    As a parent I cannot fault that approach. This is yet more partisan point scoring when there are better things to be doing.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    Oliver said:
    If parliament does not remove her then they do not agree she is being hostile toward them.
    Absolutely. They can VONC her out.
    The butt hurt is partly due to knowing they deserve a telling off but not by her!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Alistair said:

    To be honest, I don’t think that’s a bad statement by May.

    She’s echoing the frustrations of normal people back to the nation.

    I expect it will badly bomb with MPs though, and probably lose her votes.

    But when normal people are polled they fucking hate May's deal.
    They don't. It has few enthusiasts, but lots of people can live with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Does anyone actually think May will bring her proposal for a vote on Monday? If it is a do or die situation those who have held their bladders until now won't wet themselves Sunday night and suddenly decide they need to back the deal. She'll pull it, which will only embolden the no dealer holdouts further - she'll be losing their votes as they see the chances of stopping Brexit receding, without gaining any further votes.

    As much as I'd wish for this to be over with end of next week, I see Parliament finally having had enough of May.

    Monday Letwin and Cooper will try and force through another amendment along with Boles, it is possible the Commons could an end the political declaration to aim for a Single Market and Customs Union BINO end point and then vote through the Withdrawal Agreement on that basis
    What would Letwin/Cooper be an amendment to? I severely doubt May will bring forward her deal, so I'm unclear procedurally what their proposal would be attached to, of if it can standalone.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Today it was confirmed I don't have stomach cancer and yet the events in Westminster make me really sad.

    Well done Theresa and Parliament.

    Very pleased to hear you got the all-clear. Properly good news.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Can May prorogue Parliament on Monday to delay the vote to Thursday/Friday?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ad for VONC if it was find whilst shes at the EU summit I dont think parliament would be forgiven
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Oliver said:
    The last leader who actively promoted hostility to parliament was probably Charles I. It did not end well for him.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Oliver said:
    The last leader who actively promoted hostility to parliament was probably Charles I. It did not end well for him.
    I think Charles 2nd was pretty hostile to it ;)
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