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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Now we know the answer to SeanT's earlier question: why was her cabinet looking so glum. They know she was going to give her tuppence worth to the nation.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MPs won't back the Deal but no majority can be found for anything else, either. Nothing has changed - and, in the meantime, Brexit on March 29th remains the law of the land.

    Time until the DUP-ERG alliance achieves total victory: 9 days, 2 hours and 10 minutes.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dixiedean said:

    PB rarely, if ever, gets unanimity.
    Does anyone think that speech was
    1 necessary.
    2 useful.
    Or 3, most importantly effective in winning support?

    No, no and it might sway the 'all politicians are arse' brigade behind her but I'm doubtful
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    First shot fired in the blame game for no deal then?
  • Scott_P said:
    Great lets dissolve Parliament tonight and go to the polls 2nd May. Something might automatically happen next Friday then though.
    And if it did, it would be a terrible thing but at least we'd be on the path to putting things right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sturgeon: The one thing missing from that pointless PM speech was any acknowledgment of the massive responsibility she bears for this mess. She could have changed course after the first defeat of her deal. But she is still trying to force a choice between a bad deal and no deal. Shameful
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Political nerds will think May's statement was crap. I suspect that in the country it will resonate.

    There was large opposition to a long extension in an opinion poll at the weekend.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    She's aligning herself with the 40% who support her deal, but not the 60% who would rather remain.
  • dixiedean said:

    PB rarely, if ever, gets unanimity.
    Does anyone think that speech was
    1 necessary.
    2 useful.
    Or 3, most importantly effective in winning support?

    In the public yes, necessary and useful, not really
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Political nerds will think May's statement was crap. I suspect that in the country it will resonate.

    Heard that one before with previous statements. It's never led to MPs suddenly thinking the same, and they are the ones who need to change their minds.

    The question is how will that go down in homes on the 10 o clock news

    Why is that the question? Who cares what we, or normal people, think of the statement?
    Scott_P said:

    Has Tezza just invited the HoC to VONC her?

    Several times, implicitly. To date they have balked. Heck, they didn't even vote to take control last week.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    dixiedean said:

    PB rarely, if ever, gets unanimity.
    Does anyone think that speech was
    1 necessary.
    2 useful.
    Or 3, most importantly effective in winning support?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1108468805716578305?s=19
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    edited March 2019
    I did point out that the EU might not be so acquiescencent to an extension as everyone was assuming....
    Did the remain/Labour wonders in the HoC listen ?!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Right, it's back over to Corbyn in this game of Letting People Down tennis....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Maybe it wont play so well on Ten oclock news after all.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Political nerds will think May's statement was crap. I suspect that in the country it will resonate.

    Maybe, maybe not, but how does that help her. Is she expecting the people to besiege parliament or something until they capitulate? (How is Farage's march going BTW?) Is she planning to send tanks in to bombard the Place of Westminster a la Yeltsin?
  • It was worse than when Gordon Brown did those dance moves in a statement on the MP expenses scandal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Why appeal to the people unless you are going to give the people a say in the matter?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,491
    edited March 2019
    I think the point of addressing the nation is usually to reiterate the position of the person making it, just to a wider audience. I'm reminded of Cameron addressing the nation to say he REALLY didn't want anyone to vote for Brexit. It wasn't aimed at politics followers. I have talked to someone today who said they were wary of voting Tory in case Theresa left!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    I am he
    As you are he
    As you are me
    And we are all together
  • Grieve going nowhere
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I feel like even the PM's advisers should know that if someone could miss the entire statement while boiling a kettle for a fresh cup of tea, it's not really much of a political statement.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    To be fair to Big G of the parish, concerned this morning that no deal crash was now back on menu G ahead of the game.

    May was having an awful day until the EU saved her.

    May was awful today.

    She said parliaments already faffed around with too much indicative voting, the people, for whom she’s the champion have had enough of parliaments delaying tactics and inability to decide on brexit.

    You couldn’t make it up.

    And she capitulated on extension to those in her government working towards no deal brexit. Leadsom had seized control and the government (probably angies experience with obstinate children that has allowed her to outdo May).

    Explain how in the national interest rather than own narrow self interest pm opposes the house having non legislative non binding indicative votes session one afternoon?

    It keeps getting dangled as carrot you can never eat. At what point does the donkey wake up?

    Ahead of last weeks vote on setting up indicative voting, pm deputy and her chancellor promised indicative votes would occur in the first two weeks of April if MV not approved, I believed them. I was taking in by both that, and May talking up longer delay to properly sort the mess that will come once her deal with EU is either laid to rest (or passed following a leaver ref on her deal).
    was it only because of the Lidington pledge that the government avoided defeat on amendment that would have allowed the Commons indicative votes? Going back to 1604 is there not some precedent where someone lies in commons to win or torpedo a vote can justly be hauled off to the tower?

    But then something amazing happened. It was Tusk coming over the hill to save May. No extension till end of May, you vote for Mays deal any votes against it is vote for no deal brexit, guaranteeing Enough Labour perhaps even DUP votes to ensure May wins next week.

    A master stroke, all remoaners, all ERG, all peoplevoters had their fox shot on the spot.

    Tusk and EU pre ordained master plan, to protect red lines they own too remember, wether we can call it a deal or not, it belongs to them, they got us just where they want us.

    Francois on C4 looking chipper at no deal brexit next week. Is he mad? Mays deal is 100% going to pass next week. an MP not voting for May’s deal MV3 will be voting for no deal brexit or abstaining to facilitate no deal brexit. Don’t tell me it’s going to be close, if you don’t support May and it results in no deal it will be printed on every leaflet through every letter box for ever more so every voter know you enabled the no deal brexit. Simples. 😂

    The worst day for a British Prime Minister since fall of Chamberlain. And then the lady ended up winning the war thanks to her EU allies reinforcing her red lines. Who’d have thought it?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    The question is how will that go down in homes on the 10 o clock news

    To those interested in politics it said nothing new, but those of us on here are not her audience


    "The prime minister said .........."

    "Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition was accused of ......"

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TOPPING said:

    Why appeal to the people unless you are going to give the people a say in the matter?

    Another question raised with the statements made months ago, and yet still she has not pivoted to one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    LucyJones said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

    The counter is spinning happily.

    Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

    Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

    I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Unless the number gets huge I don't think it matters one iota, but it is fun watching you get exasperated by it. It is the People's Vote march all over again. I assume you are not going to challenge the numbers though on this are you? :)
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Nope. That was in line with all the professional estimates, including neutral posters on here.
    Go on give us a link to 270K that wasn't posted by you.
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/amp/
    Link to the GLA report? Have you got that? Does it exist? Context? Or are just quoting other Brexiteers like yourself who just made up the numbers. All the other quotes of numbers - Are you just ignoring them or just believing stuff you want to believe?
    Freedom of Information request here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/what_is_the_estimate_of_attendee

    They say 25000, but I assume they missed a zero off. So 250 000.
    Estimate of 1000 attending rival pro-credit march, which presumably also was missing a zero.
    He wants to find reasons to shoot down any lower estimate of numbers.

    He isn’t interested in facts.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Where's the cabinet - she's apparently speaking for them all?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Grieve sounding broken by it all.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    Sturgeon: The one thing missing from that pointless PM speech was any acknowledgment of the massive responsibility she bears for this mess. She could have changed course after the first defeat of her deal. But she is still trying to force a choice between a bad deal and no deal. Shameful

    Hold on, for the last two years haven't opponents of May been saying again and again that a bad deal is better than no deal?

    May was ridiculed by people for saying no deal is better than a bad deal, but it seems she should have we'll hold our breath and reject both.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    You know when you have to go to a meeting, and it takes half an hour, and it's absolutely excruciating, and you come out, and you think it could have been sorted with a two-line email, and then you check your email history and that email has actually been sent two days ago?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Where's the cabinet - she's apparently speaking for them all?

    If they won't quit then of course she is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    Something good has come out of today then.
  • Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    He's not the only one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Chris said:

    I am he
    As you are he
    As you are me
    And we are all together

    She is the warmth less coo coo co choo.
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18
    How can there not be cabinet resignations at this stage? Surely the likes of Amber Rudd must now see this government and her role in it as utterly irretrievable? I don’t understand.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:



    .

    .
    .
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Yeah, @Casino_Royale wasn't there to count.

    It was the second biggest political demonstration in British history, and the forecast looks good for Saturday to be a similar size.
    If people want to advertise their self-regard and immaturity, that’s fine. It’s tiresome that they block up the centre of the capital while doing so.
    Freedom of peaceful and protest are fundamental parts of a working democracy.

    I am quite looking forward to Saturday, have my flags and signs ready, and have invested in a new megaphone. Mrs Foxy wants to march with the Tiggers, so we shall.
    The 100k was expectations management so the organisers could report an “unexpected” “surge” in numbers on the day.

    These people are advised by the likes of Alastair Campbell, know what they are doing when it comes to spin and are very, very good at it.
    .

    You know 16 million voted Remain and that many are as passionate as you are for Leave. Wy are you so surprised that they want to publically express their views?
    Your naivety is almost touching.

    Your confirmation bias far less so.
    CS when you get into one of these discussions you remind me of Plato. You are filtering out all the evidence and picking what suits you no matter how self deluding it looks, but believe others are doing the same and you are not. And you don't need to cos you have solid arguments, but getting into an argument over the numbers in a crowd is pointless and just leads others to bait you. All that matters was it was enormous. Whether that matters or not is debatable, but trying to argue with people it was smaller than it looks, makes you look silly. Does Trump and his crowd estimates come to mind at all?
    Trump inflated his crowd estimates.

    Just like People’s Vote March organisers.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1108471632287416320

    May not reaching Tweeters...or patrons of London Coffee Houses.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    Good. He's just as bad as JRM.
  • For a long time, I thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a bad job.

    Not anymore.

    The Prime Minister's latest move on Brexit goes beyond awkward fumbling—refusing to ask for a longer extension is downright reckless, and puts the whole country at risk.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/for-a-long-time-i-thought-theresa-may-was-trying-to-make-the-best-of-a-bad-job-not-anymore
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Political nerds will think May's statement was crap. I suspect that in the country it will resonate.

    Tell me what did you think of Marco Rubio's chances after he finished third in Iowa?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

    The counter is spinning happily.

    Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

    Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

    I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Un
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Yeah, @Casino_Royale wasn't there to count.

    It was the second biggest political demonstration in British history, and the forecast looks good for Saturday to be a similar size.
    If people want to advertise their self-regard and immaturity, that’s fine. It’s tiresome that they block up the centre of the capital while doing so.
    Freedom of peaceful and protest are fundamental parts of a working democracy.



    I am quite looking forward to Saturday, have my flags and signs ready, and have invested in a new megaphone. Mrs Foxy wants to march with the Tiggers, so we shall.
    The 100k was expectations management so the organisers could report an “unexpected” “surge” in numbersit.
    It seems pointless to even estimate crowd numbers. Protestors always say it is one number, police estimates are then much much lower, stories are run on it being difficulty to estimate, and if someone is committed to the most or least impressive number it never persuades anyone else anyway. It was clearly a lot, beyond that no one will agree.
    But the police didn’t do their job that time.

    So it’s up to us to challenge the propaganda.
    Yawn. Trafalgar Square is well known to hold about 45,000 people. The October March filled well over a dozen Trafalgar Squares. I don't find the 700,000 figure remotely difficult to believe.
    You want to believe the highest number you can.

    Whilst I understand that don’t expect the rest of us to take it seriously.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    IanB2 said:

    Sturgeon: The one thing missing from that pointless PM speech was any acknowledgment of the massive responsibility she bears for this mess. She could have changed course after the first defeat of her deal. But she is still trying to force a choice between a bad deal and no deal. Shameful

    Hold on, for the last two years haven't opponents of May been saying again and again that a bad deal is better than no deal?

    May was ridiculed by people for saying no deal is better than a bad deal, but it seems she should have we'll hold our breath and reject both.
    Obviously they did not mean it. Most who said no deal is better than a bad deal did not mean it either (though a sizable rump did). And most only implicitly suggested bad deal is better than no deal, rather than state it directly. Many definitely think no deal is better than not remaining, because they have happily refused any deal so that no deal is still possible.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I wonder I wonder..... she was gonna say something else but cabinet/backbenchers handcuffed her, do shes gone hardball her deal as the only game in town and screw parliament if it doesn't like it?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    everyone gone mad?

    Game over. May wins.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I was playing rocket league - have i missed anything?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    If he fears no deal there's a very simple solution for him, even if he hates it. But I don't believe he does fear it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Off topic, but I see Charlie Mullins has come up smelling of roses:

    https://tinyurl.com/y3e5g6bq

    Charlie Mullins, the chief executive of Pimlico Plumbers, said: “While the supreme court deemed him to be a ‘worker’ and entitled to associated rights, the tables have been turned and common sense prevailed in the actual employment tribunal and Mr Smith has been told that he wasn’t entitled to a penny.”

    He said the ruling “sends a message to those who have taken advantage of this case to peddle their poisonous bile about my company”.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    Letwin/Cooper or similar will be moved as an amendment and will carry. May breaking her word after the last time will ensure that.

    Edit/ hence May won't take a vote on Monday. Brexit Eve, is when it'll be
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Listening to the speech again why ask for an extension in the first place?

    If there is a vote next week and it passes then she could ask for the technical extension then, surely. Or is the point of the request now only for a technical extension?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

    The counter is spinning happily.

    Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

    Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

    I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Un
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Yeah, @Casino_Royale wasn't there to count.

    It was the second biggest political demonstration in British history, and the forecast looks good for Saturday to be a similar size.
    If people want to advertise their self-regard and immaturity, that’s fine. It’s tiresome that they block up the centre of the capital while doing so.
    Freedom of peaceful and protest are fundamental parts of a working democracy.



    I am quite looking forward to Saturday, have my flags and signs ready, and have invested in a new megaphone. Mrs Foxy wants to march with the Tiggers, so we shall.
    The 100k was expectations management so the organisers could report an “unexpected” “surge” in numbers on the day.

    These people are advised by the likes of Alastair Campbell, know what they are doing when it comes to spin and are very, very good at it.
    ee.
    But the police didn’t do their job that time.

    So it’s up to us to challenge the propaganda.
    Yawn. Trafalgar Square is well known to hold about 45,000 people. The October March filled well over a dozen Trafalgar Squares. I don't find the 700,000 figure remotely difficult to believe.
    Don't feed the CR troll....
    No trolling. I’ve got no time or interest in being a troll.

    I’m interested in facts.
  • Eh?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1108454464321671169?s=19

    Forcing through her unpopular deal is a certain formula for unravalling very quickly when it comes to the actual legislation, let alone the FTA talks. She will be universally despised and without influence.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019

    Eh?

    Indeed.
    The question much of the world is asking of Britain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    To be honest, I don’t think that’s a bad statement by May.

    She’s echoing the frustrations of normal people back to the nation.

    I expect it will badly bomb with MPs though, and probably lose her votes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dots said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    everyone gone mad?

    Game over. May wins.
    MPs will never ever believe that is the only choice. Something will come up, they'll vote of no confidence, suspend standing orders and overrule, etc etc. Many of these ideas are tricky or downright implausible, but if we judge actions and not words, MPs are not guaranteed to be willing to take any action to definitely prevent no deal. Have the DUP come on board with the deal yet? Have 30+ Labour MPs?

    They'll either succeed in forcing an extension, and on to no Brexit, or have no deal. And MPs have demonstrated that is a price they are willing to pay, for us to pay.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dots said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    everyone gone mad?

    Game over. May wins.
    No deal doesn't have to get votes. Just count down the clock.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,491
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1108454464321671169?s=19

    Forcing through her unpopular deal is a certain formula for unravalling very quickly when it comes to the actual legislation, let alone the FTA talks. She will be universally despised and without influence.

    I don't think so. May will have delivered Brexit. That changes everything.
  • She's aligning herself with the 40% who support her deal, but not the 60% who would rather remain.
    Its 40 firm leave, 40 firm remain, 20 all over the place. There is no majority at all for anything.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
  • Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    Livin' on a prayer more like.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    nico67 said:

    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.

    And a leader of the opposition who stormed off in a huff

    Well served aren't we
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    dots said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    everyone gone mad?

    Game over. May wins.
    MPs will never ever believe that is the only choice. Something will come up, they'll vote of no confidence, suspend standing orders and overrule, etc etc. Many of these ideas are tricky or downright implausible, but if we judge actions and not words, MPs are not guaranteed to be willing to take any action to definitely prevent no deal. Have the DUP come on board with the deal yet? Have 30+ Labour MPs?

    They'll either succeed in forcing an extension, and on to no Brexit, or have no deal. And MPs have demonstrated that is a price they are willing to pay, for us to pay.
    Which is why "as early as Monday" is smokescreen for gullible MPs. MV3 is Brexit Eve.

    The bad blood means May resigns straight after.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    Does anyone actually think May will bring her proposal for a vote on Monday? If it is a do or die situation those who have held their bladders until now won't wet themselves Sunday night and suddenly decide they need to back the deal. She'll pull it, which will only embolden the no dealer holdouts further - she'll be losing their votes as they see the chances of stopping Brexit receding, without gaining any further votes.

    As much as I'd wish for this to be over with end of next week, I see Parliament finally having had enough of May.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    Livin' on a prayer more like.
    I set them up ...


    Well we are a lot more than half way there

  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    I did point out that the EU might not be so acquiescencent to an extension as everyone was assuming....
    Did the remain/Labour wonders in the HoC listen ?!

    Of course they did. Labour don’t have BIG problem with the WA just the political declaration. Pass the WA and carry on fighting or facilitate leaving EU with no deal. It’s a no brainier for 70% labour MPs.

    What EU done today was force end to the whole sorry saga. ERG stuffed. Second ref. Stuffed. Remain. Stuffed. But really we should thank the EU, all May was going to do was extend the cliff and carry on kicking the can. Of course as she kicks everyone could carry on dreaming their little fantasy. But that’s all it is a fantasy.

    It’s over now. EU will ensure WA is passed this week.

    [not directed at you pulp, you totally switched on, for everyone else] WAKE UP
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    dots said:


    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    Spurned remainers are as mad as anything the ERG can come up with.

    I wonder about Labour amendments that might give a bundle of them cover to abstain.


  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    LucyJones said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

    Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

    I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Unless the number gets huge I don't think it matters one iota, but it is fun watching you get exasperated by it. It is the People's Vote march all over again. I assume you are not going to challenge the numbers though on this are you? :)
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Nope. That was in line with all the professional estimates, including neutral posters on here.
    Go on give us a link to 270K that wasn't posted by you.
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/amp/
    Link to the GLA report? Have you got that? Does it exist? Context? Or are just quoting other Brexiteers like yourself who just made up the numbers. All the other quotes of numbers - Are you just ignoring them or just believing stuff you want to believe?
    Freedom of Information request here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/what_is_the_estimate_of_attendee

    They say 25000, but I assume they missed a zero off. So 250 000.
    Estimate of 1000 attending rival pro-credit march, which presumably also was missing a zero.
    He wants to find reasons to shoot down any lower estimate of numbers.

    He isn’t interested in facts.
    :) I don't give a toss what the number are. I'm just winding you up. You really don't get it do you? Do my comments and other like 'Don't feed the troll CS' ring any bells with you at all? Do you not see you are being selective? Comments like 'He isn't interested in fact' just show how you are deluding yourself when you get into some arguments when there are so many estimates that disagree with yours. They may be wrong, but you shouldn't just believe the ones you want to believe and dismiss others.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sturgeon: The one thing missing from that pointless PM speech was any acknowledgment of the massive responsibility she bears for this mess. She could have changed course after the first defeat of her deal. But she is still trying to force a choice between a bad deal and no deal. Shameful

    Hold on, for the last two years haven't opponents of May been saying again and again that a bad deal is better than no deal?

    May was ridiculed by people for saying no deal is better than a bad deal, but it seems she should have we'll hold our breath and reject both.
    Obviously they did not mean it. Most who said no deal is better than a bad deal did not mean it either (though a sizable rump did). And most only implicitly suggested bad deal is better than no deal, rather than state it directly. Many definitely think no deal is better than not remaining, because they have happily refused any deal so that no deal is still possible.
    Those soundbites, of course, were even more trite than the usual ones. It's trivial to think of deals that are better and worse than No Deal.

    Worse: continued payments, CJEU competence, no EUCO presence, no MEPs, Euro membership.
    Better: £1B a month payments to UK, UK opt-out from FoM, end of ECJ primacy, HMQ declared Empress of Europe, free owls.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1108471632287416320

    May not reaching Tweeters...or patrons of London Coffee Houses.

    It's a fair point. May can fool some of the people most of the time. Her problem is , so what? It doesn't get her what she needs, which is a workable path out of the EU that satisfies the various interest groups.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    nico67 said:

    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.

    You may think she’s poor, out of her depth and the like. That would be justified. Calling her vile just marks you out as a verminous excuse for a human being.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2019
    Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    She's living on a prayer that she'll get the deal through, regarding an extension it doesn't make a difference if we make it or not. In her cabinet she thinks that we've got each other to stick to a line and that's a lot, so on to another meaningful vote we'll give it a shot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Floater said:

    I was playing rocket league - have i missed anything?

    Nothing Has Changed!
  • TOPPING said:

    Listening to the speech again why ask for an extension in the first place?

    If there is a vote next week and it passes then she could ask for the technical extension then, surely. Or is the point of the request now only for a technical extension?

    The sequencing was clever as the EU have laid the conditions down for an extension to 30th June and that condition is TM's deal passes. They have helped her greatly but there is an argument whether this whole thing has been choreographed between London and the EU.

    Many doubt that TM has the machiavellian skill set to do it and we will have to wait for the publication of books in due course

    The one thing it has created is a stampede of panic by remainers who see a real prospect of their dream failing
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

    The counter is spinning happily.

    Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

    Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

    I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
    70,000 now....
    So what?
    Un
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Yeah, @Casino_Royale wasn't there to count.

    It was the second biggest political demonstration in British history, and the forecast looks good for Saturday to be a similar size.
    If people want to advertise their self-regard and immaturity, that’s fine. It’s tiresome that they block up the centre of the capital while doing so.
    Freedom of peaceful and protest are fundamental parts of a working democracy.



    I am quite looking forward to Saturday, have my flags and signs ready, and have invested in a new megaphone. Mrs Foxy wants to march with the Tiggers, so we shall.
    The 100k was expectations management so the organisers could report an “unexpected” “surge” in numbers on the day.

    These people are advised by the likes of Alastair Campbell, know what they are doing when it comes to spin and are very, very good at it.
    ee.
    But the police didn’t do their job that time.

    So it’s up to us to challenge the propaganda.
    Yawn. Trafalgar Square is well known to hold about 45,000 people. The October March filled well over a dozen Trafalgar Squares. I don't find the 700,000 figure remotely difficult to believe.
    Don't feed the CR troll....
    No trolling. I’ve got no time or interest in being a troll.

    I’m interested in facts.
    :)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    I was playing rocket league - have i missed anything?

    Nothing Has Changed!
    LOL

    I actually thought that nothing could be worse than Brown......


    Failure of imagination on my part.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    matt said:

    nico67 said:

    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.

    You may think she’s poor, out of her depth and the like. That would be justified. Calling her vile just marks you out as a verminous excuse for a human being.
    Nah, she is truly vile, without empathy or humanity.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    TOPPING said:

    Listening to the speech again why ask for an extension in the first place?

    Had to:
    https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/march/house-of-commons-to-vote-on-article-50-extension/

    Of course, she didn't exactly give her best effort .....
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    She's a fucking sociopath. She's going to take us all down with her and it's genuinely starting to get a bit scary now.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    She's living on a prayer that she'll get the deal through, regarding an extension it doesn't make a difference if we make it or not. In her cabinet she thinks that we've got each other to stick to a line and that's a lot, so on to another meaningful vote we'll give it a shot.
    she gives politics a bad name.....
  • Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    Livin' on a prayer more like.
    Gotta Have A Reason
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    TOPPING said:

    Listening to the speech again why ask for an extension in the first place?

    If there is a vote next week and it passes then she could ask for the technical extension then, surely. Or is the point of the request now only for a technical extension?

    The sequencing was clever as the EU have laid the conditions down for an extension to 30th June and that condition is TM's deal passes. They have helped her greatly but there is an argument whether this whole thing has been choreographed between London and the EU.

    Many doubt that TM has the machiavellian skill set to do it and we will have to wait for the publication of books in due course

    The one thing it has created is a stampede of panic by remainers who see a real prospect of their dream failing
    They seem angry, but not panicked. It's not like Dominic Grieve is going to given up on remain and back the deal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    dots said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well it’s her deal or no deal all other options are off. Which probably means no deal

    You think the house will vote for no deal in such forced choice? Really? Seriously? No deal won’t even get 200votes May will get 400 in such a forced choice.

    everyone gone mad?

    Game over. May wins.
    MPs will never ever believe that is the only choice. Something will come up, they'll vote of no confidence, suspend standing orders and overrule, etc etc. Many of these ideas are tricky or downright implausible, but if we judge actions and not words, MPs are not guaranteed to be willing to take any action to definitely prevent no deal. Have the DUP come on board with the deal yet? Have 30+ Labour MPs?

    They'll either succeed in forcing an extension, and on to no Brexit, or have no deal. And MPs have demonstrated that is a price they are willing to pay, for us to pay.
    Which is why "as early as Monday" is smokescreen for gullible MPs. MV3 is Brexit Eve.

    The bad blood means May resigns straight after.
    She really is risking not making it that far...
    Was this strategy agreed in Cabinet? It is being reported she met with ERG before that statement.
    Who is driving?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:



    .

    .
    .
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Yeah, @Casino_Royale wasn't there to count.

    It was the second biggest political demonstration in British history, and the forecast looks good for Saturday to be a similar size.
    If people want to advertise their self-regard and immaturity, that’s fine. It’s tiresome that they block up the centre of the capital while doing so.
    Freedom of peaceful and protest are fundamental parts of a working democracy.

    I am quite looking forward to Saturday, have my flags and signs ready, and have invested in a new megaphone. Mrs Foxy wants to march with the Tiggers, so we shall.
    The 100k was expectations management so the organisers could report an “unexpected” “surge” in numbers on the day.

    These people are advised by the likes of Alastair Campbell, know what they are doing when it comes to spin and are very, very good at it.
    .

    You know 16 million voted Remain and that many are as passionate as you are for Leave. Wy are you so surprised that they want to publically express their views?
    Your naivety is almost touching.

    Your confirmation bias far less so.
    CS when you get into one of these discussions you remind me of Plato. You are filtering out all the evidence and picking what suits you no matter how self deluding it looks, but believe others are doing the same and you are not. And you don't need to cos you have solid arguments, but getting into an argument over the numbers in a crowd is pointless and just leads others to bait you. All that matters was it was enormous. Whether that matters or not is debatable, but trying to argue with people it was smaller than it looks, makes you look silly. Does Trump and his crowd estimates come to mind at all?
    Trump inflated his crowd estimates.

    Just like People’s Vote March organisers.
    You missed the whole point of that post didn't you?
  • kle4 said:

    Does anyone actually think May will bring her proposal for a vote on Monday? If it is a do or die situation those who have held their bladders until now won't wet themselves Sunday night and suddenly decide they need to back the deal. She'll pull it, which will only embolden the no dealer holdouts further - she'll be losing their votes as they see the chances of stopping Brexit receding, without gaining any further votes.

    As much as I'd wish for this to be over with end of next week, I see Parliament finally having had enough of May.

    And then what
  • Oliver said:

    She's a fucking sociopath. She's going to take us all down with her and it's genuinely starting to get a bit scary now.

    A general rule for life is that things are rarely as good as you hope or as bad as you fear. Exclusions apply however. Past behaviour cannot be guaranteed as an indicator of future returns.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    The BBC headline seems rather divorced from the opinion on here:

    "Theresa May has appealed to the public over Brexit, telling them she understood they had had enough, and adding: "I am on your side."

    Speaking from Downing Street, the prime minister criticised the actions of MPs, saying it was "high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Andrew said:

    TOPPING said:

    Listening to the speech again why ask for an extension in the first place?

    Had to:
    https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/march/house-of-commons-to-vote-on-article-50-extension/

    Of course, she didn't exactly give her best effort .....
    Ah yes I see tyvm.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Foxy said:

    matt said:

    nico67 said:

    Disgraceful speech by May .

    Instead of using a message of let’s unite together , the deal is a compromise and not laying into MPs , understanding that people have different views she instead tried to absolve herself of any responsibility.

    Utterly vile woman who is not fit to be PM.

    You may think she’s poor, out of her depth and the like. That would be justified. Calling her vile just marks you out as a verminous excuse for a human being.
    Nah, she is truly vile, without empathy or humanity.
    Whatever. It must be hard being Rick from The Young Ones every day. Without the self-awareness, obvs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    The BBC headline seems rather divorced from the opinion on here:

    "Theresa May has appealed to the public over Brexit, telling them she understood they had had enough, and adding: "I am on your side."

    Speaking from Downing Street, the prime minister criticised the actions of MPs, saying it was "high time" politicians made a decision on the next steps."

    That's just reporting what happened, there's nothing there to contradict the opinion here that it was a pointless thing to say given it is MPs she needs.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Grieve sounding broken by it all.

    Something good has come out of today then.
    Amen
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:



    .

    .
    .
    I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

    I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

    Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
    Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.
    Yeah, @Casino_Royale wasn't there to count.

    It was the second biggest political demonstration in British history, and the forecast looks good for Saturday to be a similar size.
    so.
    Freedom of peaceful and protest are fundamental parts of a working democracy.

    I am quite looking forward to Saturday, have my flags and signs ready, and have invested in a new megaphone. Mrs Foxy wants to march with the Tiggers, so we shall.
    The 100k was expectations management so the organisers could report an “unexpected” “surge” in numbers on the day.

    These people are advised by the likes of Alastair Campbell, know what they are doing when it comes to spin and are very, very good at it.
    .

    You know 16 million voted Remain and that many are as passionate as you are for Leave. Wy are you so surprised that they want to publically express their views?
    Your naivety is almost touching.

    Your confirmation bias far less so.
    CS when you get into one of these discussions you remind me of Plato. You are filtering out all the evidence and picking what suits you no matter how self deluding it looks, but believe others are doing the same and you are not. And you don't need to cos you have solid arguments, but getting into an argument over the numbers in a crowd is pointless and just leads others to bait you. All that matters was it was enormous. Whether that matters or not is debatable, but trying to argue with people it was smaller than it looks, makes you look silly. Does Trump and his crowd estimates come to mind at all?
    Trump inflated his crowd estimates.

    Just like People’s Vote March organisers.
    You missed the whole point of that post didn't you?
    No.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Scott_P said:
    The ERG must vote against, surely - defeat leads either to no deal or no May, following a longer extension or revocation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    spire2 said:

    that's her attempt to go down in a blaze of glory

    Fires up the old Bon Jovi cd
    She's living on a prayer that she'll get the deal through, regarding an extension it doesn't make a difference if we make it or not. In her cabinet she thinks that we've got each other to stick to a line and that's a lot, so on to another meaningful vote we'll give it a shot.
    she gives politics a bad name.....
    Chapeau.
This discussion has been closed.