I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
How heavily odds on?
If I had any spare cash, I’d let you know...
Fair enough! My point is that there are a lot of entrants in this contest, many of them credible, and there’s a long way to go yet. Moods will shift in that time.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Violence is often the logical conclusion of a political viewpoint. In fact, all politics is underpinned by violence- a government's authority is only enforced at the end of a gun- but even if you limit yourself to evil, atrocious violence like this attack, there's still no clean separation between the people politely advocating violence through acceptible channels and the people actually committing it. Political ideologies can cause evil and be evil, and still be identifiable as right or left wing (or, indeed, centrist).
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
How heavily odds on?
If you're interested in a private bet I'd certainly do some at evens?
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
How heavily odds on?
If you're interested in a private bet I'd certainly do some at evens?
Thanks for the offer but I’m happy manoeuvring on Betfair.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
How heavily odds on?
If you're interested in a private bet I'd certainly do some at evens?
Thanks for the offer but I’m happy manoeuvring on Betfair.
On to other matters and the forthcoming LD leadership election (hopefully) in which, as a Party member, I have a vote.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
It's OK to try to catch the same fish provided they are in different pools (constituencies. It would make no sense for TIG and LDs to fight each other in any but a handful of constituencies.
Where are the constituencies where the splitters would do well in but the LibDems don't ?
South Cambridgeshire has a Lib Dem council, but the Lib Dems are a long way behind at Parliamentary level. Totnes used to be a target, but they've collapsed. They don't feature in any of the other seats, so they should give the 11 a clear run.
On to other matters and the forthcoming LD leadership election (hopefully) in which, as a Party member, I have a vote.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
It's OK to try to catch the same fish provided they are in different pools (constituencies. It would make no sense for TIG and LDs to fight each other in any but a handful of constituencies.
Where are the constituencies where the splitters would do well in but the LibDems don't ?
Maybe a few in London like Hampstead and Kilburn.
Lib Dems could benefit from a loose alliance e.g. backing Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston but are at least narrow favourites to regain e.g. Sheffield Hallam and Richmond Park on their own anyway.
Cheadle's a bit more hard to say. Lib Dems have the organisation there and greater capacity to squeeze the ~20% Labour vote but TIG might have the upper hand against the rich Tory remainer vote in Bramhall.
Overall though I think TIG is largely to sink without trace and despite the mess the LDs are in they are still far more likely to get 20% seats on their own than the TIG are to go anywhere (let alone without an alliance)
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Agreed - there are many who throw out the term ultra right/left as a means to block any discussion. It is currently used much in Spain against the ultra-derecha Vox party. Most of their policies are odious but no-one seems interested amidst the catcalls and screeching , to understand why about 10-15% of Spaniards are probably going to vote for them.
I couldn't say definitively that all those who vote for odious policies are odious, but the possibility has to be considered.
As I posted last night, could be a big surprise dark horse if gets to the debates.
Axelrod is a fan.
I like Buttigieg, but I'm not convinced he will be able to stand out given a crowded field of pretty solid primary candidates. He'll make it to the debates though, I'm almost certain.
I'm on Biden at 9/1 for the nomination, also reckon Warren is a bit long. She's polling decently and imho is a stronger candidate than most of the second tier lot who are 20/1 or so at bookies. I reckon both Biden and Sanders are strong but fragile campaigns, if something derailed Sanders then Warren would be well placed to leap to the top tier. She might also be a strong debater due to her detail, though it remains to be seen if that's what the voters want.
Also on Trump for the GOP nomination. Got longer than 1/2 earlier this year. Nuts.
Is America ready for a gay President Booty Gig, with his husband in the White House? I think it is a little too soon.
I suspect they're readier than for a Black one and they've had one of those....
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
You are a gent. We are lucky to have your studied decency, keeping us true.
Well said and my own condolences to Mr G's family too.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Agreed - there are many who throw out the term ultra right/left as a means to block any discussion. It is currently used much in Spain against the ultra-derecha Vox party. Most of their policies are odious but no-one seems interested amidst the catcalls and screeching , to understand why about 10-15% of Spaniards are probably going to vote for them.
I couldn't say definitively that all those who vote for odious policies are odious, but the possibility has to be considered.
The ERG vote for the deal , May gets an extension then they pull the plug on the WAIB after the EU elections by which time there’s no chance for further delay .
Then the issue of revocation . There seems to be a huge gap in the law . What if the UK hasn’t taken part in EU elections and then tries to revoke .
The EU have said the UK can’t continue to be a member if it hasn’t put forward MEPs but let’s say early June the UK revokes .
What happens . I’ve read the full ECJ judgement but can’t see mention of MEPs .
A by-election? They happen all the time for other Parliaments
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Agreed - there are many who throw out the term ultra right/left as a means to block any discussion. It is currently used much in Spain against the ultra-derecha Vox party. Most of their policies are odious but no-one seems interested amidst the catcalls and screeching , to understand why about 10-15% of Spaniards are probably going to vote for them.
I couldn't say definitively that all those who vote for odious policies are odious, but the possibility has to be considered.
Just the response I'd expect from you. Sad.
The Right: we need to condemn a little more, understand a little less, except when it's people voting for policies from the more obnoxious end of rightwing politics.
The ERG vote for the deal , May gets an extension then they pull the plug on the WAIB after the EU elections by which time there’s no chance for further delay .
Then the issue of revocation . There seems to be a huge gap in the law . What if the UK hasn’t taken part in EU elections and then tries to revoke .
The EU have said the UK can’t continue to be a member if it hasn’t put forward MEPs but let’s say early June the UK revokes .
What happens . I’ve read the full ECJ judgement but can’t see mention of MEPs .
All this knowledge in my head is increasingly obsolete, but when a country that is not an EU member accedes, then MEPs are appointed until an off-year election (by-election) is held. Here is the Wiki page for the off-year election for Sweden in 1995. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_European_Parliament_election_in_Sweden
I have not got any sources for you for cases where a country gives notice, misses the election, then decides to revoke at the last minute because it just can't be arsed to think straight. Oddly enough, nobody planned for that.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Agreed - there are many who throw out the term ultra right/left as a means to block any discussion. It is currently used much in Spain against the ultra-derecha Vox party. Most of their policies are odious but no-one seems interested amidst the catcalls and screeching , to understand why about 10-15% of Spaniards are probably going to vote for them.
I couldn't say definitively that all those who vote for odious policies are odious, but the possibility has to be considered.
Just the response I'd expect from you. Sad.
The Right: we need to condemn a little more, understand a little less, except when it's people voting for policies from the more obnoxious end of rightwing politics.
Exactly the same on the left. There's none so blind.....
The ERG vote for the deal , May gets an extension then they pull the plug on the WAIB after the EU elections by which time there’s no chance for further delay .
Then the issue of revocation . There seems to be a huge gap in the law . What if the UK hasn’t taken part in EU elections and then tries to revoke .
The EU have said the UK can’t continue to be a member if it hasn’t put forward MEPs but let’s say early June the UK revokes .
What happens . I’ve read the full ECJ judgement but can’t see mention of MEPs .
All this knowledge in my head is increasingly obsolete, but when a country that is not an EU member accedes, then MEPs are appointed until an off-year election (by-election) is held. Here is the Wiki page for the off-year election for Sweden in 1995. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_European_Parliament_election_in_Sweden
I have not got any sources for you for cases where a country gives notice, misses the election, then decides to revoke at the last minute because it just can't be arsed to think straight. Oddly enough, nobody planned for that.
Reading the BBC report on Boles resignation from his Association, it appears some there think he is their delegate and not the constituency's representative - and since he's voted for MV2 and the government whipped extension to A50, this reflects badly on them, and not their MP.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Agreed - there are many who throw out the term ultra right/left as a means to block any discussion. It is currently used much in Spain against the ultra-derecha Vox party. Most of their policies are odious but no-one seems interested amidst the catcalls and screeching , to understand why about 10-15% of Spaniards are probably going to vote for them.
I couldn't say definitively that all those who vote for odious policies are odious, but the possibility has to be considered.
Just the response I'd expect from you. Sad.
The Right: we need to condemn a little more, understand a little less, except when it's people voting for policies from the more obnoxious end of rightwing politics.
Exactly the same on the left. There's none so blind.....
So rather than catcall & screech about Corbyn, you really, really want to understand the people who vote for far left polices? You've done a masterful job of hiding you curiosity about the motivations of those particulary voters up to now, thumbs down on the catcalling & screeching bit though.
People's Vote is aiming for up to 2 million in London next Saturday, would have been more sensible for the March to Leave to just hold a rival rally in Sunderland on the same day, most Leavers do not want to do a hike across the UK to make a point
People's Vote is aiming for up to 2 million in London next Saturday, would have been more sensible for the March to Leave to just hold a rival rally in Sunderland on the same day, most Leavers do not want to do a hike across the UK to make a point
And frankly neither will have any effect. It was pretty much decided this week we won't be leaving on no deal/WTO terms and there is no appetite in parliament for a people's vote.
People's Vote is aiming for up to 2 million in London next Saturday, would have been more sensible for the March to Leave to just hold a rival rally in Sunderland on the same day, most Leavers do not want to do a hike across the UK to make a point
And frankly neither will have any effect. It was pretty much decided this week we won't be leaving on no deal/WTO terms and there is no appetite in parliament for a people's vote.
So what can we do? If we can't leave, and can't stay, what next?
People's Vote is aiming for up to 2 million in London next Saturday, would have been more sensible for the March to Leave to just hold a rival rally in Sunderland on the same day, most Leavers do not want to do a hike across the UK to make a point
And frankly neither will have any effect. It was pretty much decided this week we won't be leaving on no deal/WTO terms and there is no appetite in parliament for a people's vote.
Which will still leave a lot of unhappy voters though I agree either the Deal or extension and Brexit with some form of Customs Union and/or Single Market arrangement is the likeliest outcome
Reading the BBC report on Boles resignation from his Association, it appears some there think he is their delegate and not the constituency's representative - and since he's voted for MV2 and the government whipped extension to A50, this reflects badly on them, and not their MP.
I am afraid that one of the more poisonous long term effects of Brexit will be to have cemented this idea that an MP is simply their to reflect the views of their local party membership. You can see it happening over on the Labour side as anyone who isn't fully signed up Momentum worshipper is viewed with increasing suspicion.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
Sure, quite a lot of the ERG could break. But to get the vote over the line, May needs the DUP. Otherwise the number of Labour rebels she needs is just too high.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
Sure, quite a lot of the ERG could break. But to get the vote over the line, May needs the DUP. Otherwise the number of Labour rebels she needs is just too high.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
This is the same Daniel Kawczynski who was threatening to lobby the Polish government to stop them accepting an A50 extension? Quite a conversion.
And the same one who said WTO would be wonderful . If it’s so good why back Mays deal. Of course he’s just another ERG nutjob who peddles lies every time his mouth opens .
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
This is the same Daniel Kawczynski who was threatening to lobby the Polish government to stop them accepting an A50 extension? Quite a conversion.
And the same one who said WTO would be wonderful . If it’s so good why back Mays deal. Of course he’s just another ERG nutjob who peddles lies every time his mouth opens .
Seems he has had a massive dose of reality via meeting his actual constituents.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
This is the same Daniel Kawczynski who was threatening to lobby the Polish government to stop them accepting an A50 extension? Quite a conversion.
And the same one who said WTO would be wonderful . If it’s so good why back Mays deal. Of course he’s just another ERG nutjob who peddles lies every time his mouth opens .
Seems he has had a massive dose of reality via meeting his actual constituents.
Hilariously he makes out businesses want Brexit . He really is an odious creep who lied about the Marshall plan .
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
This is the same Daniel Kawczynski who was threatening to lobby the Polish government to stop them accepting an A50 extension? Quite a conversion.
And the same one who said WTO would be wonderful . If it’s so good why back Mays deal. Of course he’s just another ERG nutjob who peddles lies every time his mouth opens .
I see nothing at all in his message that says he doesn't still think WTO would be better than the Deal. He may be right in that. But he clearly realises that No Deal has now been effectively scuppered and doesn't trust the PM not to revoke if there is no deal passed. As such he is taking a very sensible decision to back the Deal.
He is just later coming to the acceptance that something is better than nothing than others.
People's Vote is aiming for up to 2 million in London next Saturday, would have been more sensible for the March to Leave to just hold a rival rally in Sunderland on the same day, most Leavers do not want to do a hike across the UK to make a point
Hopefully that will be 2 million more people who are going to find out in the near future what all other mass marches have found over the years - that they make not a blind bit of difference.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
This is the same Daniel Kawczynski who was threatening to lobby the Polish government to stop them accepting an A50 extension? Quite a conversion.
And the same one who said WTO would be wonderful . If it’s so good why back Mays deal. Of course he’s just another ERG nutjob who peddles lies every time his mouth opens .
Seems he has had a massive dose of reality via meeting his actual constituents.
Hilariously he makes out businesses want Brexit . He really is an odious creep who lied about the Marshall plan .
So hilarious that senior representatives of both the CBI and FSB were on Sky News only a few days ago urging MPs to back the deal.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
This is the same Daniel Kawczynski who was threatening to lobby the Polish government to stop them accepting an A50 extension? Quite a conversion.
And the same one who said WTO would be wonderful . If it’s so good why back Mays deal. Of course he’s just another ERG nutjob who peddles lies every time his mouth opens .
I see nothing at all in his message that says he doesn't still think WTO would be better than the Deal. He may be right in that. But he clearly realises that No Deal has now been effectively scuppered and doesn't trust the PM not to revoke if there is no deal passed. As such he is taking a very sensible decision to back the Deal.
He is just later coming to the acceptance that something is better than nothing than others.
No he has peddled WTO and has been given a reality check by businesses . At the same time the ERG have been sending a message that no deal was fine hence some Leavers now parading around with their deal is a betrayal signs. He has added to the division in the country by expecting Remainers to have to swallow not only Brexit but the absolute worst outcome . Leavers who want to leave in an orderly way I can cope with those pushing no deal are a disgrace .
Reading the BBC report on Boles resignation from his Association, it appears some there think he is their delegate and not the constituency's representative - and since he's voted for MV2 and the government whipped extension to A50, this reflects badly on them, and not their MP.
I am afraid that one of the more poisonous long term effects of Brexit will be to have cemented this idea that an MP is simply their to reflect the views of their local party membership. You can see it happening over on the Labour side as anyone who isn't fully signed up Momentum worshipper is viewed with increasing suspicion.
I don't think its got anything to do with Brexit. Its all about control - Chris Bryant from 2015:
This modern phenomenon also wants to turn MPs into delegates mandated online.
Now, I’ve always thought that Edmund Burke sounded rather arrogant when he told the voters of Bristol that an MP “owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion”.
The voters of Bristol thought so, too. They dispensed with his services at the election.
But Burke’s point is even more important in an era of social media, when every email, every tweet and every posting comes replete with the demand that an MP should do precisely as his or her constituents wish (which is always precisely as the correspondent wishes).
On Paris, am I right that Macron's popularity has recovered somewhat since the yellow vesters went too far?
Yes , it’s picked up over the last few months . The disgraceful scenes in Paris will just drive more of the public against them. Protest is in the French DNA but events have got out of control now and these protests have been hijacked by anarchists . You can’t have mob rule deciding policy . I have no problem with peaceful protest . But once these people started vandalizing the Arc De Triomphe earlier in the year their support has nosedived .
A second referendum is perfectly acceptable, although a 52-48 vote for Remain would be problematic. A straight up cancellation would be disastrous, but it should see the end of most of the Wankers of Westminster's political careers, so it's not all bad.
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
A few no doubt. I know a couple of Tory cllrs and they were scathing about what was going on in Westminster. In fairness I don’t think they were ever fired up brexiteers though.
The irreconciliables seem to be undecided as to whether May would go nuclear and revoke Article 50 if by 29th March no deal was staring us in the face. But that conundrum only arises if the EU fail to grant the UK an extension. More likely perhaps they do so and we move towards a soft Norway plus Brexit - would that be better than May's deal for the ERG?
I would be surprised if many Labour MPs were inclined to switch support in line with the DUP.
I cannot figure out why a lab mp would back it at mv3 if not at mv2. There was and is no guarantee they’d even get another chance and they don’t seen as exercised about the backstop as the Tory hold outs.
I would be surprised if many Labour MPs were inclined to switch support in line with the DUP.
I cannot figure out why a lab mp would back it at mv3 if not at mv2. There was and is no guarantee they’d even get another chance and they don’t seen as exercised about the backstop as the Tory hold outs.
Backing it if it takes it over the line would deliver a sense of achievement that reducing May's loss cannot.
On Paris, am I right that Macron's popularity has recovered somewhat since the yellow vesters went too far?
Yes , it’s picked up over the last few months . The disgraceful scenes in Paris will just drive more of the public against them. Protest is in the French DNA but events have got out of control now and these protests have been hijacked by anarchists . You can’t have mob rule deciding policy . I have no problem with peaceful protest . But once these people started vandalizing the Arc De Triomphe earlier in the year their support has nosedived .
Here is yet another link between disruption in the West and Russian subversion. There is considerable evidence of a systematic and sustained attempt to damage democratic states that is both coordinated and funded by the Kremlin.
On Paris, am I right that Macron's popularity has recovered somewhat since the yellow vesters went too far?
Yes , it’s picked up over the last few months . The disgraceful scenes in Paris will just drive more of the public against them. Protest is in the French DNA but events have got out of control now and these protests have been hijacked by anarchists . You can’t have mob rule deciding policy . I have no problem with peaceful protest . But once these people started vandalizing the Arc De Triomphe earlier in the year their support has nosedived .
Here is yet another link between disruption in the West and Russian subversion. There is considerable evidence of a systematic and sustained attempt to damage democratic states that is both coordinated and funded by the Kremlin.
An alternative explanation is that Western governments have been treating too many of their own people like crap.
I would be surprised if many Labour MPs were inclined to switch support in line with the DUP.
I cannot figure out why a lab mp would back it at mv3 if not at mv2. There was and is no guarantee they’d even get another chance and they don’t seen as exercised about the backstop as the Tory hold outs.
Backing it if it takes it over the line would deliver a sense of achievement that reducing May's loss cannot.
They need to show some backbone. unless every erg mp says what they intend we won’t know how close it is. Who knows, 20 lab MPs might persuade some Tories to switch as they see it might be close.
Facebook and co are in so much sh*t now. Bet Clegg is glad he took on the new job.
He’s certainly going to have to work hard for his $1m salary, that’s for sure.
First job, explain to politicians worldwide how come there are still copies of a murderous rampage - filmed by the terrorist and streamed live - all over their platform.
Comments
Lib Dems could benefit from a loose alliance e.g. backing Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston but are at least narrow favourites to regain e.g. Sheffield Hallam and Richmond Park on their own anyway.
Cheadle's a bit more hard to say. Lib Dems have the organisation there and greater capacity to squeeze the ~20% Labour vote but TIG might have the upper hand against the rich Tory remainer vote in Bramhall.
Overall though I think TIG is largely to sink without trace and despite the mess the LDs are in they are still far more likely to get 20% seats on their own than the TIG are to go anywhere (let alone without an alliance)
[unless private jet has taken off yet]
https://twitter.com/dazabdaza/status/1106927220583337984?s=21
people voting for policies from the more obnoxious end of rightwing politics.
The ERG vote for the deal , May gets an extension then they pull the plug on the WAIB after the EU elections by which time there’s no chance for further delay .
Then the issue of revocation . There seems to be a huge gap in the law . What if the UK hasn’t taken part in EU elections and then tries to revoke .
The EU have said the UK can’t continue to be a member if it hasn’t put forward MEPs but let’s say early June the UK revokes .
What happens . I’ve read the full ECJ judgement but can’t see mention of MEPs .
All this knowledge in my head is increasingly obsolete, but when a country that is not an EU member accedes, then MEPs are appointed until an off-year election (by-election) is held. Here is the Wiki page for the off-year election for Sweden in 1995. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_European_Parliament_election_in_Sweden
I have not got any sources for you for cases where a country gives notice, misses the election, then decides to revoke at the last minute because it just can't be arsed to think straight. Oddly enough, nobody planned for that.
I have not got any sources for you for cases where a country gives notice, misses the election, then decides to revoke at the last minute because it just can't be arsed to think straight. Oddly enough, nobody planned for that.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47594875
https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1106874058925359104
When the turnout could fill a camper van it’s not a good look.
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1106940439578533889
Local NUF and business people, councillors - telling MP to back it and get it done.
How many other ERGers are getting this message this weekend?
He is just later coming to the acceptance that something is better than nothing than others.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1076079292415655937
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1106802515943800832
How about the mood in the country? Maybe we should find out? We could ask the people? Just needs a catchy name...
This modern phenomenon also wants to turn MPs into delegates mandated online.
Now, I’ve always thought that Edmund Burke sounded rather arrogant when he told the voters of Bristol that an MP “owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion”.
The voters of Bristol thought so, too. They dispensed with his services at the election.
But Burke’s point is even more important in an era of social media, when every email, every tweet and every posting comes replete with the demand that an MP should do precisely as his or her constituents wish (which is always precisely as the correspondent wishes).
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2015/12/sorry-role-mp-be-representative-not-delegate
Brexit may have made it worse - but the tussle between representative democracy and (allegedly) delegated democracy is as old as democracy itself.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1106955844598546439
Nah....nothing to see here.
Meanwhile, that global laughing stock, the UK.....
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1106958056062177280
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/16/cant-leave-time-should-stay-become-macrons-worst-nightmare/
Rather rubbish weather, again. Aim to have the ramble up around 5.30-6pm, depending how things go.
And the weather wasn't very nice either.
This is too easy.
On Paris, am I right that Macron's popularity has recovered somewhat since the yellow vesters went too far?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/french-yellow-vests-clash-with-police-in-paris/2019/03/16/b1b9e6d4-47d3-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.04816dcacbfb
https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1106959619753152512
At least the English led at half time.
Otherwise its an abuse of process.
It has to go to a second vote . As a Remainer I couldn’t support anything that didn’t involve the public having the final say .
That would cause terrible damage to the country , a second vote is the only way .
Here is yet another link between disruption in the West and Russian subversion. There is considerable evidence of a systematic and sustained attempt to damage democratic states that is both coordinated and funded by the Kremlin.
Or do referenda only count when they produce the answer the establishment wants ?
First job, explain to politicians worldwide how come there are still copies of a murderous rampage - filmed by the terrorist and streamed live - all over their platform.