Not quite sure how you can leave your Association? Whatever looks like there might be one less to support the Deal.
If he isn't member of the association then he isn't a party member ( unless HQ allows him to join centrally) and surely membership is a requirement for the whip
I think you can be a Conservative party member, without belonging to a constituency party.
At least these people are out doing something to promote the cause they believe in. I suppose it's easier to just snark from the internet though.
Thank goodness PB was a snark free zone when the Peoples Vote mob 'only' managed several hundred thousand on their London march.
A 200 mile walk is a touch different to a mile or so in the middle of London.
I wonder how many of those who have signed up for this one realise just how much physical and mental effort is going to be required to walk 200 miles?
They can just do a Teresa May's Fucking Shit Deal version of the march which would be walking round in circles in the Metro Centre car park while somebody throws buckets of rancid piss over them.
Starting point: I'm not an ERG-er. I hate May's Shit Deal. But I'm a pragmatist. Nothing better is going to come along. No Deal preparation was blocked. Let those responsible have their careers rot in hell for that, but the narrative is set; everything about No Deal is toxic. We would probably muddle through without most of the horrors ascribed, but any little thing that goes wrong will be blown out of all proportion. "OMG!!! We left the EU and now I CAN'T BUY GOOSEBERRIES IN APRIL!!!" That sort of horror. Or else it really could be truly horrible - and we lose 100,000s of thousands of top quality jobs.
If you are an ERG MP though, you might continue your crusade, determined to hold out until the end. That comes with a very real risk of No Brexit rather than No Deal. Realisitically, there will never be another opportunity to Leave. Sure, you could be a standard-bearer for the Really Pissed Off. Point out that every British ill is down to us not having Brexited. In other words, become Nigel Farage. But some - many - will blame YOU for those ills still visiting us. Because unlike Farage, who was not an MP, you could have stopped them. If only you hadn't been such a purist twat. The rest of your life is a long time to have to watch generations of Juncker's successors, lording it over us. Thinking "If only....."
It seems unfathomable that when you have worked yourself into a lather for decades over the ills of the EU, you are going to give up the chance to be finally parted from it. But we AREN'T parted from it, they will cry. We are a vassal of Europe. Well, up to a point. You think if this was Frexit, the French would honour Macron's Shit Deal until the end of time? Of course not.
Just bloody well swallow your wretched pride, sign up to May's Deal, then oust May at the earliest. Work to elect somebody who commits to TRY to undertake the trade agreement, but will prepare for An Alternative if the EU deal proves to come with a price-tag that's too high. Yes, you are still going to be fighting the establishment every step of the way. Better that than being wound ever tighter into Brussel's clutches. That will be far, far worse.
And a reminder. You stood as Conservative MPs. Not ERG MPs. Those who voted for you did so for many reasons, but for many it was because you had signed up to Leave the EU. You can't claim some great moral authority to implement the purest Brexit, when to do so would require commiting a fraud upon your voters.
The issue is that the ERG are chasing the ideological purity of opposition while being in the governing party. Honestly, Mrs May needs to step up and start withdrawing the whip and pledging to run candidates against them. At this rate we're going to remain anyway so at least we'll be rid of the bastards.
Good to see McLaren make it into Q3 today. Hopefully a sign of things to come, especially with top level technical staff still to join.
Indeed. Looks like you and I called it pretty much right yesterday. Shame about Williams though, hopefully they can get themselves sorted out soon.
Shamelessly stolen from Reddit
That’s a good table. The other astonishing thing is that with what Ross Brawn reckoned was a two second handicap thanks to the new aerodynamic regs, the top cars still went more than half a second faster than they did last year!
Good to see McLaren make it into Q3 today. Hopefully a sign of things to come, especially with top level technical staff still to join.
Indeed. Looks like you and I called it pretty much right yesterday. Shame about Williams though, hopefully they can get themselves sorted out soon.
Norris looks the real deal. Whether he can carry that result across to the race will be interesting.
Looking at the speed trap data I think McLaren will be able to fight in the midfield and overtake with DRS assistance. The issue is that they won't be able to get anywhere near the top three and might not get close to Ferrari junior Haas.
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Total divvies. Someone should have suggested a place much closer to London that would have the same impact. Somewhere with historical constitutional significance like Runnymede. 20 miles... 20 miles is the max that really anyone who is not reasonably fit can walk without injuring themselves.
At least these people are out doing something to promote the cause they believe in. I suppose it's easier to just snark from the internet though.
Thank goodness PB was a snark free zone when the Peoples Vote mob 'only' managed several hundred thousand on their London march.
A 200 mile walk is a touch different to a mile or so in the middle of London.
I wonder how many of those who have signed up for this one realise just how much physical and mental effort is going to be required to walk 200 miles?
They can just do a Teresa May's Fucking Shit Deal version of the march which would be walking round in circles in the Metro Centre car park while somebody throws buckets of rancid piss over them.
Is he deal really that shit, or has it just become fashionable to say so? It sets the stage for a future trade relationship on a zero day approach. Any future leader could adapt it to a Canada or Norway or somewhere in between with little difficulty once an accommodation over customs is agreed.
Good to see McLaren make it into Q3 today. Hopefully a sign of things to come, especially with top level technical staff still to join.
Indeed. Looks like you and I called it pretty much right yesterday. Shame about Williams though, hopefully they can get themselves sorted out soon.
Shamelessly stolen from Reddit
That’s a good table. The other astonishing thing is that with what Ross Brawn reckoned was a two second handicap thanks to the new aerodynamic regs, the top cars still went more than half a second faster than they did last year!
That and how the midfield teams are just about catching up to the pace of the 2017 Mercedes is the other eye opener for me.
My money is on Farage's march making it about 15 miles before it is canned for "road traffic reasons".
Have they actually organised this properly with authorities at all? The maps they published were shortest distances between two points from Google maps, along a lot of very unsuitable roads. I doubt if anyone’s done so much as a recce along the whole route, and those involved understand how difficult it’s going to be. And I hope they’ve got a nurse with a few needles and bandages for the blisters.
Biden will be an interesting test of whether the US is yearning for a grown up after four years of Trump, or still fears a Continuity Clinton Washington Insider. He could fit both roles OK!
I'm on Biden for president at 20/1. He'd be my biggest winner - except for Kasich at 130/1 which I have as a hedge if the Democrats pick Sanders and the Republicans go for a likeable centrist like Biden. Trump would be my biggest loser.
I'm on Biden at 28.
Likewise for Trump. Can't bear to put money anywhere near the idiot. I guess that is not a sound betting attitude.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
At least these people are out doing something to promote the cause they believe in. I suppose it's easier to just snark from the internet though.
Thank goodness PB was a snark free zone when the Peoples Vote mob 'only' managed several hundred thousand on their London march.
A 200 mile walk is a touch different to a mile or so in the middle of London.
I wonder how many of those who have signed up for this one realise just how much physical and mental effort is going to be required to walk 200 miles?
They can just do a Teresa May's Fucking Shit Deal version of the march which would be walking round in circles in the Metro Centre car park while somebody throws buckets of rancid piss over them.
Is he deal really that shit, or has it just become fashionable to say so? It sets the stage for a future trade relationship on a zero day approach. Any future leader could adapt it to a Canada or Norway or somewhere in between with little difficulty once an accommodation over customs is agreed.
If you have confidence in whatever government is to manage the transition period, it’s an excellent deal. Given the current administration and any likely alternatives, it is a shit one.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
Thanks. I started writing it well after midnight last night, having started an binned articles on MV3/4, on the EP elections, and on the Lib Dem leadership. Hope it was fourth time lucky (which ironically was my title for the Meaningful Vote thread).
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
At least these people are out doing something to promote the cause they believe in. I suppose it's easier to just snark from the internet though.
Thank goodness PB was a snark free zone when the Peoples Vote mob 'only' managed several hundred thousand on their London march.
A 200 mile walk is a touch different to a mile or so in the middle of London.
I wonder how many of those who have signed up for this one realise just how much physical and mental effort is going to be required to walk 200 miles?
They can just do a Teresa May's Fucking Shit Deal version of the march which would be walking round in circles in the Metro Centre car park while somebody throws buckets of rancid piss over them.
Is he deal really that shit, or has it just become fashionable to say so? It sets the stage for a future trade relationship on a zero day approach. Any future leader could adapt it to a Canada or Norway or somewhere in between with little difficulty once an accommodation over customs is agreed.
Its a very good withdrawal agreement which is what it is meant to be.
The future relationships will be decided in future agreements which will evolve naturally as events and requirements evolve over coming years.
Biden will be an interesting test of whether the US is yearning for a grown up after four years of Trump, or still fears a Continuity Clinton Washington Insider. He could fit both roles OK!
I'm on Biden for president at 20/1. He'd be my biggest winner - except for Kasich at 130/1 which I have as a hedge if the Democrats pick Sanders and the Republicans go for a likeable centrist like Biden. Trump would be my biggest loser.
I'm on Biden at 28.
Likewise for Trump. Can't bear to put money anywhere near the idiot. I guess that is not a sound betting attitude.
He's still a good price for the nomination I think
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
Best wishes Big_G and to your family at this difficult time.
The choice for DUP and ERG MPs this weekend is personal humiliation in backing a Deal they despise, or no Brexit. It could not happen to a finer group of people.
Thanks. I started writing it well after midnight last night, having started an binned articles on MV3/4, on the EP elections, and on the Lib Dem leadership. Hope it was fourth time lucky (which ironically was my title for the Meaningful Vote thread).
Be good to see something on Liberal leadership.
Who ever takes over does so at a critical time for the party.
Yes, I was very sorry to read your news Mr G. Losing someone at that sort of age is dreadful; you're not supposed to bury the next generation. My sympathies are with you and yours.
My money is on Farage's march making it about 15 miles before it is canned for "road traffic reasons".
Have they actually organised this properly with authorities at all? The maps they published were shortest distances between two points from Google maps, along a lot of very unsuitable roads. I doubt if anyone’s done so much as a recce along the whole route, and those involved understand how difficult it’s going to be. And I hope they’ve got a nurse with a few needles and bandages for the blisters.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency.
You’re a good man Mr G. Sincerest condolences and very best wishes to you and your family.
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
All the very best Big G. We are also with family (in Germany) ahead of a family funeral on Monday for my wife's gran. Although in our case celebrating a long life well lived, rather than mourning the potential for so much more, I'm reminded again of the fragility of life, of making the most of the time together we get, and the importance of difficult events bringing people closer together not dividing them further, thinking of you and your family.
At least these people are out doing something to promote the cause they believe in. I suppose it's easier to just snark from the internet though.
Thank goodness PB was a snark free zone when the Peoples Vote mob 'only' managed several hundred thousand on their London march.
A 200 mile walk is a touch different to a mile or so in the middle of London.
I wonder how many of those who have signed up for this one realise just how much physical and mental effort is going to be required to walk 200 miles?
You are correct I have done a few multi day ultra events, the mental challenge to finish is the hardest, I once almost gave up at the end of day6 with only one day left to the finish, a friend joined me and helped me through. Anyone who is not a serious walker will struggle to finish this.
The choice for DUP and ERG MPs this weekend is personal humiliation in backing a Deal they despise, or no Brexit. It could not happen to a finer group of people.
I doubt many of them actually despise May's Deal rather they have publicly postured that they despise May's Deal
The choice for DUP and ERG MPs this weekend is personal humiliation in backing a Deal they despise, or no Brexit. It could not happen to a finer group of people.
One can rationalise switching by blaming The Traitor in 10 Downing Street.
At least these people are out doing something to promote the cause they believe in. I suppose it's easier to just snark from the internet though.
Thank goodness PB was a snark free zone when the Peoples Vote mob 'only' managed several hundred thousand on their London march.
A 200 mile walk is a touch different to a mile or so in the middle of London.
I wonder how many of those who have signed up for this one realise just how much physical and mental effort is going to be required to walk 200 miles?
You are correct I have done a few multi day ultra events, the mental challenge to finish is the hardest, I once almost gave up at the end of day6 with only one day left to the finish, a friend joined me and helped me through. Anyone who is not a serious walker will struggle to finish this.
And anyone who is not a serious wa*ker will not start it.
The choice for DUP and ERG MPs this weekend is personal humiliation in backing a Deal they despise, or no Brexit. It could not happen to a finer group of people.
One can rationalise switching by blaming The Traitor in 10 Downing Street.
The choice for DUP and ERG MPs this weekend is personal humiliation in backing a Deal they despise, or no Brexit. It could not happen to a finer group of people.
I doubt many of them actually despise May's Deal rather they have publicly postured that they despise May's Deal
Some perhaps. But I think it is being wishful to assume they cannot mean it. That thinking is why the optimism keeps being unfounded.
And posturing or not the effect is the same in reluctance to act
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
As I posted last night, could be a big surprise dark horse if gets to the debates.
Axelrod is a fan.
I like Buttigieg, but I'm not convinced he will be able to stand out given a crowded field of pretty solid primary candidates. He'll make it to the debates though, I'm almost certain.
I'm on Biden at 9/1 for the nomination, also reckon Warren is a bit long. She's polling decently and imho is a stronger candidate than most of the second tier lot who are 20/1 or so at bookies. I reckon both Biden and Sanders are strong but fragile campaigns, if something derailed Sanders then Warren would be well placed to leap to the top tier. She might also be a strong debater due to her detail, though it remains to be seen if that's what the voters want.
Also on Trump for the GOP nomination. Got longer than 1/2 earlier this year. Nuts.
And now I shall go out and do something to promote a cause I believe in. I shall purchase refreshments for the upcoming Calcutta Cup match
Kolkata. Never had you down as an Imperialist.
I know you're being snarky, but.....
The Calcutta Cup was so named in 1879.
Calcutta only officially became Kolkata in 2001. More than half a century after imperial rule ended.
(Although, I'm never quite sure if Bombay Mix is Imperialist.... Presumably it was first mixed at the time of it being Bombay, so would be historically inaccurate to call it "Mumbai Mix". Unless of course, the mix you acquire IS actually mixed in Mumbai and exported...would that be Mumbai Bombay Mix???)
My understanding is that Bombay is preferred by locals who aren't Hindu nationalists.
Marathi nationalists more like - I understand a lot of the renamings in recent years have been more about local ethnic identities than a Indian or Hindu one.
The local bus company in [Bo|Mu]mba[i|y] is styled "BEST", originally for "Bombay Electricity Supply[1] and Transport". When the city was renamed, it restyled itself to the "Brihanmumbai EST" ("Greater Mumbai") to preserve the acronym.
[1] Originally as a spin-off from generating electricity for the former tram network. London Transport and its predecessors had a similar spin-off, the Northmet Electricity Company, before the electricity industry was nationalized in the 40s.
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
Instead of heading straight down the A60 ! I suspect plenty of other parts are similiar, Google maps doesn't pick out the best walking routes...
A bit optimistic to hope that Brexiteers would plan anything properly.
This is the metaphor that just keeps giving.
At what point does the march split in two, as they argue over exactly what does constitute a march and what does not?
At what point do the Police step in and stop the March. I have been involved in organising some events, and finally stopped because of the paperwork, Risk assessments, Police approval, 3rd part insurance etc, land owners permiision etc. What if someone gets injured or has a Heart attack etc.
My money is on Farage's march making it about 15 miles before it is canned for "road traffic reasons".
Have they actually organised this properly with authorities at all? The maps they published were shortest distances between two points from Google maps, along a lot of very unsuitable roads. I doubt if anyone’s done so much as a recce along the whole route, and those involved understand how difficult it’s going to be. And I hope they’ve got a nurse with a few needles and bandages for the blisters.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
Given Biden is clearly the Democrats best bet to beat Trump and to win the rustbelt swing states as the polls agree it is no surprise he leads the Democratic nomination polls. Biden is also said to be the one candidate Trump fears
Biden is certainly the one Trump has been quizzing his aides about. I think in part this is due to the 'marlarky' speech Biden did late in the last campaign - i.e. Trump and his ideas were "a bunch of marlarky". It was belting, punchy stuff and way better than anything Clinton could do.
Apparently his aides have calmed him down by saying there is little chance of Biden actually getting through the primary, as Dems have moved so far left.
A lot of people talk about the party moving left and it's true of the people on the twitters but in the mid-terms they managed to pick some reasonably moderate candidates for moderate districts. More than anything else I reckon they want to win.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
You are a gent. We are lucky to have your studied decency, keeping us true.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
I agree - the real extremists, whatever their beliefs, have more in common with each other than with anyone engaging in democratic politics.
As I posted last night, could be a big surprise dark horse if gets to the debates.
Axelrod is a fan.
I like Buttigieg, but I'm not convinced he will be able to stand out given a crowded field of pretty solid primary candidates. He'll make it to the debates though, I'm almost certain.
I'm on Biden at 9/1 for the nomination, also reckon Warren is a bit long. She's polling decently and imho is a stronger candidate than most of the second tier lot who are 20/1 or so at bookies. I reckon both Biden and Sanders are strong but fragile campaigns, if something derailed Sanders then Warren would be well placed to leap to the top tier. She might also be a strong debater due to her detail, though it remains to be seen if that's what the voters want.
Also on Trump for the GOP nomination. Got longer than 1/2 earlier this year. Nuts.
Is America ready for a gay President Booty Gig, with his husband in the White House? I think it is a little too soon.
Given Biden is clearly the Democrats best bet to beat Trump and to win the rustbelt swing states as the polls agree it is no surprise he leads the Democratic nomination polls. Biden is also said to be the one candidate Trump fears
Biden is certainly the one Trump has been quizzing his aides about. I think in part this is due to the 'marlarky' speech Biden did late in the last campaign - i.e. Trump and his ideas were "a bunch of marlarky". It was belting, punchy stuff and way better than anything Clinton could do.
Apparently his aides have calmed him down by saying there is little chance of Biden actually getting through the primary, as Dems have moved so far left.
A lot of people talk about the party moving left and it's true of the people on the twitters but in the mid-terms they managed to pick some reasonably moderate candidates for moderate districts. More than anything else I reckon they want to win.
The idea that the Democrats have become a US analogue of Momentum is a risible one.
True, they do seem to have adopted extremist policies like.... universal healthcare.
On to other matters and the forthcoming LD leadership election (hopefully) in which, as a Party member, I have a vote.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
As I posted last night, could be a big surprise dark horse if gets to the debates.
Axelrod is a fan.
I like Buttigieg, but I'm not convinced he will be able to stand out given a crowded field of pretty solid primary candidates. He'll make it to the debates though, I'm almost certain.
I'm on Biden at 9/1 for the nomination, also reckon Warren is a bit long. She's polling decently and imho is a stronger candidate than most of the second tier lot who are 20/1 or so at bookies. I reckon both Biden and Sanders are strong but fragile campaigns, if something derailed Sanders then Warren would be well placed to leap to the top tier. She might also be a strong debater due to her detail, though it remains to be seen if that's what the voters want.
Also on Trump for the GOP nomination. Got longer than 1/2 earlier this year. Nuts.
Is America ready for a gay President Booty Gig, with his husband in the White House? I think it is a little too soon.
That sounds a bit like the conventional wisdom about Obama’s candidacy at the time.
There is probably a majority in the US which doesn’t care. Those who do are probably going to vote Trump anyway.
On to other matters and the forthcoming LD leadership election (hopefully) in which, as a Party member, I have a vote.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
Agree that the LibDems need a contest and a period of debate over direction.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
You are a gent. We are lucky to have your studied decency, keeping us true.
As for matters Brexit, clear signs of the ERG folding quicker than a gambler with a bad hand which was May's plan all along. Unless Bercow refuses MV3 which seems improbable I begin to think the Deal will scrape through.
The curious thing is with the EU not guaranteed to offer an acceptable extension the chance of leaving without a Deal on 29/3 is as great as ever and as Cyclefree opined earlier in the week the ERG is much closer to victory than they might imagine.
As for the DUP, they may seek a heavy price from May for their support in the WA but even if they choose to support a Labour VoNC, bringing down the Conservative Government will come at a heavier price. The post-WA euphoria will translate into a huge poll boost for May and the Conservatives who may be tempted to hold another snap GE and the result of that may render the DUP once more irrelevant.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
As for matters Brexit, clear signs of the ERG folding quicker than a gambler with a bad hand which was May's plan all along. Unless Bercow refuses MV3 which seems improbable I begin to think the Deal will scrape through.
The curious thing is with the EU not guaranteed to offer an acceptable extension the chance of leaving without a Deal on 29/3 is as great as ever and as Cyclefree opined earlier in the week the ERG is much closer to victory than they might imagine.
As for the DUP, they may seek a heavy price from May for their support in the WA but even if they choose to support a Labour VoNC, bringing down the Conservative Government will come at a heavier price. The post-WA euphoria will translate into a huge poll boost for May and the Conservatives who may be tempted to hold another snap GE and the result of that may render the DUP once more irrelevant.
They're not the only ones who become irrelevant. It makes Corbyn LOTO for another 4-5 years until he's ~75.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
How about the scenario where Bercow says "there's nothing different to MV3 compared to MV2, and MV2 was only slightly different from MV1, so MV3's your last go" and then it falls by a handful of votes? That'd be...interesting...
If true, that would suggest increased likelihood of his joining TIG before long.
It has been the case for quite some time that the Tories are more willing to tolerate rebellions from their anti-EU extremists than they have from their remainers. So far the government has only offered free votes when it's the ultras that are likely to vote against.
Kate's canvass trainers look more suitable for the walk than Andrea's but she'll need to have several pairs to let them dry at the end of each day. Hiking boots would be best if you're planning on only using one pair of shoes.
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Many of the roads will not be deserted of 60mph vehicles passing by at a few feet of distance.
If they'd planned it properly the route from Tickhill to Oldcotes/Langold would look something like this:
Instead of heading straight down the A60 ! I suspect plenty of other parts are similiar, Google maps doesn't pick out the best walking routes...
A bit optimistic to hope that Brexiteers would plan anything properly.
This is the metaphor that just keeps giving.
At what point does the march split in two, as they argue over exactly what does constitute a march and what does not?
At what point do the Police step in and stop the March. I have been involved in organising some events, and finally stopped because of the paperwork, Risk assessments, Police approval, 3rd part insurance etc, land owners permiision etc. What if someone gets injured or has a Heart attack etc.
It's part of the act. But Cox is stupid in the way that highly intelligent people can be. He created a completely unnecessary legal hole for himself and expected the EU to abandon all their red lines to get him out of it.
Really didn't see it that way. There is a real issue here. We want to leave the EU, and presumably the SM, but we want an open border for NI. The backstop is a work around of a sort but what happens at the end of the transitional period? How do these 2 irreconcilable positions resolve themselves? The EU answer is that if there is to be an open border NI must effectively remain in the SM/EU structure. Our position is....well, I am not really sure, something to do with a virtual border and technology. The EU response is we will look at that but we need a guarantee.
So when Cox is asked if their guarantee means that we/NI can be trapped the answer is plainly yes. We have the option of a sovereign nation of walking away but we respect our legal obligations. We might be able to rely on the Vienna Convention but that really requires something material to change or bad faith. We have beefed up the commitment to work on alternatives. I think that is the best that he or we could do.
His position as a lawyer was familiar to me. Can you remove all risk or give a guarantee? No. The client has to make an informed decision based on their assessment of that risk. That is your job.
The best political and diplomatic minds in the UK and Europe have been working full time for two years on the backstop. The issues were as mitigated as much as they could be, while as far as possible keeping everyone on board. The parameters of the arrangement are well understood, as are the alternative arrangements that could be made to render the backstop obsolete. You may accept this choice or decide none of the backstop and alternatives are acceptable. That's a judgment call.
Cox charges in at the final stage and says, I need legal certainty of ending the backstop unilaterally (and by implication I am not prepared to make any choices about customs unions). Change everything.
The EU says (only slightly more politely than this), you're a fool.
At which point, Cox says, I'm a lawyer, not a politician.
Hmm. In that case, Geoffrey, stick to the law. Seriously, the only point of legal tests like that is to setup to fail. Otherwise you make sure you have passed them before you start.
How about the scenario where Bercow says "there's nothing different to MV3 compared to MV2, and MV2 was only slightly different from MV1, so MV3's your last go" and then it falls by a handful of votes? That'd be...interesting...
It's a distinctly possible scenario imo. They may need to get over 300 before a last handful of refuseniks, and Labour possibles, consider it.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
You are a gent. We are lucky to have your studied decency, keeping us true.
How about the scenario where Bercow says "there's nothing different to MV3 compared to MV2, and MV2 was only slightly different from MV1, so MV3's your last go" and then it falls by a handful of votes? That'd be...interesting...
If there was a majority to pass a deal and put this to bed there could be a majority to remove the Speaker if he tried to block it.
The ERG vote for the deal , May gets an extension then they pull the plug on the WAIB after the EU elections by which time there’s no chance for further delay .
Then the issue of revocation . There seems to be a huge gap in the law . What if the UK hasn’t taken part in EU elections and then tries to revoke .
The EU have said the UK can’t continue to be a member if it hasn’t put forward MEPs but let’s say early June the UK revokes .
What happens . I’ve read the full ECJ judgement but can’t see mention of MEPs .
On to other matters and the forthcoming LD leadership election (hopefully) in which, as a Party member, I have a vote.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
It's OK to try to catch the same fish provided they are in different pools (constituencies. It would make no sense for TIG and LDs to fight each other in any but a handful of constituencies.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
Agreed - there are many who throw out the term ultra right/left as a means to block any discussion. It is currently used much in Spain against the ultra-derecha Vox party. Most of their policies are odious but no-one seems interested amidst the catcalls and screeching , to understand why about 10-15% of Spaniards are probably going to vote for them.
I think taking current EU messaging re any extension ignores the reality .
The EU are doing everything possible to get Mays deal through and hence the hardline approach . They will not force the UK out on no deal , even if Mays deal doesn’t get through they will still allow a short extension .
For some reason parts of the media and public have swallowed the EU line as being set in stone .
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
How about the scenario where Bercow says "there's nothing different to MV3 compared to MV2, and MV2 was only slightly different from MV1, so MV3's your last go" and then it falls by a handful of votes? That'd be...interesting...
If that happened then the PM would go to Brussels and get some minor wording change which would make it a new agreement. Though I think if it looks like getting within 10 votes beforehand enough Labour MPs will be found to see it over the line. I don't think it's very likely though, the deal is dead and so is brexit. The ERG are a bunch of traitors and I hope we withdraw the whip when they vote down MV3. Enough is enough.
On to other matters and the forthcoming LD leadership election (hopefully) in which, as a Party member, I have a vote.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
It's OK to try to catch the same fish provided they are in different pools (constituencies. It would make no sense for TIG and LDs to fight each other in any but a handful of constituencies.
Where are the constituencies where the splitters would do well in but the LibDems don't ?
I think you are about right, David. The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
I think the assumption a lot of the candidates are making is that Trump will be easy to beat
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Well it would be for Biden and Sanders....
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I’ve been a layer of Beto O’Rourke since he announced he was tired. Kamala Harris is a fine candidate but ridiculously short at present. Sooner or later someone is going to ask searching questions about the practicalities of having a very old president.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
A case for laying any of them, but not all at once, I think ?
What are the odds, do you think, that the eventual candidate will come from outside that quartet? I’d say it’s better than 2/1. It might be better than evens.
It’s a view, but I think it odds on that it will be one of the four.
Comments
Whether he can carry that result across to the race will be interesting.
Although to be fair, they said they *would*, rather than actually doing it!
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1106863237285462017
Likewise for Trump. Can't bear to put money anywhere near the idiot. I guess that is not a sound betting attitude.
I just want to say a huge thank you to all the community who have been so kind in your expressions of sympathy over the sad premature loss of my wifes cousin's son at 46 leaving his wife and three children, after just a few short weeks of discovering he had a rare form of extremely aggressive cancer
This followed the terrible news of the massacre in Christchurch, NZ, a city we love, and it's people, by a far right monster acting in the purest form of evil
It is a demonstration to all of us to call out all the far right and far left in one voice and work to unifying people and acknowledging there is more that unites us than divides us
PB was a wonderful example of that as so many were so kind right across the spectrum of all of us who post on here
Let us all look to kindness to each other and trust that whatever happens to brexit, we can heal the divisions in our society
As a mark of respect to my family I will not post over the weekend and truely hope that something will happen shortly to move us on
Thank you all so much. You are such a credit to our basic humanity and decency
Normally super Nige is the first to comment on terrorism involving Muslims.
The morons will tell you UKIP only became anti-Muslim on Gerard Batten’s watch.
Happened way before that.
The future relationships will be decided in future agreements which will evolve naturally as events and requirements evolve over coming years.
At times this site can be humbling.
Who ever takes over does so at a critical time for the party.
Its easy to overlook how many back roads run near the main roads.
Anyone who is not a serious walker will struggle to finish this.
And posturing or not the effect is the same in reluctance to act
I'm on Biden at 9/1 for the nomination, also reckon Warren is a bit long. She's polling decently and imho is a stronger candidate than most of the second tier lot who are 20/1 or so at bookies. I reckon both Biden and Sanders are strong but fragile campaigns, if something derailed Sanders then Warren would be well placed to leap to the top tier. She might also be a strong debater due to her detail, though it remains to be seen if that's what the voters want.
Also on Trump for the GOP nomination. Got longer than 1/2 earlier this year. Nuts.
The local bus company in [Bo|Mu]mba[i|y] is styled "BEST", originally for "Bombay Electricity Supply[1] and Transport". When the city was renamed, it restyled itself to the "Brihanmumbai EST" ("Greater Mumbai") to preserve the acronym.
[1] Originally as a spin-off from generating electricity for the former tram network. London Transport and its predecessors had a similar spin-off, the Northmet Electricity Company, before the electricity industry was nationalized in the 40s.
At what point does the march split in two, as they argue over exactly what does constitute a march and what does not?
https://twitter.com/kevinmarks/status/1106846084012404736?s=19
I have been involved in organising some events, and finally stopped because of the paperwork, Risk assessments, Police approval, 3rd part insurance etc, land owners permiision etc. What if someone gets injured or has a Heart attack etc.
Catastrophic missed tackle and they are behind.
Same old, same old.
Hence there will be a Democrat incumbent in 2024 and therefore it’s 2020 or 2028
And 9 years is a long time to wait for some of these candidates
Bound to be some directive or other.
I'll add my condolences to those already expressed to Big G and his family.
I do however respectfully disagree with this comment this morning - the monster who committed the Christchurch atrocity isn't deserving of the epithet "Right" and nor are those with whom he apparently associated in Europe and elsewhere.
For me, "Right" and "Left", outmoded as they are, do at least represent terms for those who engage with and believe in the democratic process. There are plenty of people on here with whom and on many issues I disagree passionately but we do so within the confines of the democratic process. As such, I wholeheartedly respect the rights of these individuals to hold views with which I disagree and hopefully they respect my right to disagree with them.
Passionate argument is and always has been the lifeblood of democracy - the totality of views expressed here and on similar forums support and enrich the democratic process.
That does not under any circumstances condone violence and murder. This terrorist took innocent lives and there can be no political justification for it. This individual is a criminal beyond politics and argument and needs only to be considered within the area of his punishment within the law.
All those who argue within politics should be united in opposing those who prefer to air their arguments through the media of violence and terror. That includes opposing the words of hate which provoke the actions of violence whether those are directed against countries, colours or creeds.
True, they do seem to have adopted extremist policies like.... universal healthcare.
My first and fervent hope is we have a contested election. I hope Layla Moran and Ed Davey decide to stand alongside Jo Swinson. I confess I don't have a strong preference this stage - I see the "appeal" for the LDs to join the Conservatives in having chosen a female leader not that should be a criterion for choosing a leader.
I so think the Party needs to start thinking beyond Brexit and needs to consider its relationship with TIG. I confess I'm struggling to see where TIG stands on a number of issues but I do worry that while I've no objection to another fisherman on the riverbank I would be worried if we were trying to catch the same fish.
These and other areas will be what I'm looking forward to hearing at the Hustings when all the candidates pitch directly to the electorate.
https://twitter.com/tonyroe/status/1106906704237740036
There is probably a majority in the US which doesn’t care. Those who do are probably going to vote Trump anyway.
The curious thing is with the EU not guaranteed to offer an acceptable extension the chance of leaving without a Deal on 29/3 is as great as ever and as Cyclefree opined earlier in the week the ERG is much closer to victory than they might imagine.
As for the DUP, they may seek a heavy price from May for their support in the WA but even if they choose to support a Labour VoNC, bringing down the Conservative Government will come at a heavier price. The post-WA euphoria will translate into a huge poll boost for May and the Conservatives who may be tempted to hold another snap GE and the result of that may render the DUP once more irrelevant.
O’Rourke doesn’t have that kind of now or never urgency - and if he doesn’t win the nomination, has probably decreased the Democrats’ chances in Texas.
Had he been decisive like Harris, he wouldn’t face the kind of criticism coming his way. As it is, the hint of entitlement isn’t going to do him any favours.
I can't understand why people who voted against MV2 are saying they will now vote for MV3.
Yes sure there has been the anti No Deal and extension votes but they weren't exactly a secret before MV2.
There’s a good case for laying all four of the current frontrunners at present prices. There’s quite enough time for other contenders to have their moment to shine.
And similar low value rubbish.
Cox charges in at the final stage and says, I need legal certainty of ending the backstop unilaterally (and by implication I am not prepared to make any choices about customs unions). Change everything.
The EU says (only slightly more politely than this), you're a fool.
At which point, Cox says, I'm a lawyer, not a politician.
Hmm. In that case, Geoffrey, stick to the law. Seriously, the only point of legal tests like that is to setup to fail. Otherwise you make sure you have passed them before you start.
https://twitter.com/BakerLuke/status/1106896458261893120
The ERG vote for the deal , May gets an extension then they pull the plug on the WAIB after the EU elections by which time there’s no chance for further delay .
Then the issue of revocation . There seems to be a huge gap in the law . What if the UK hasn’t taken part in EU elections and then tries to revoke .
The EU have said the UK can’t continue to be a member if it hasn’t put forward MEPs but let’s say early June the UK revokes .
What happens . I’ve read the full ECJ judgement but can’t see mention of MEPs .
Douglas Carswell
✔
@DouglasCarswell
Either you can be the party that accommodates Boles-Letwin-Gauke or you can form a government. One cannot do both.
The EU are doing everything possible to get Mays deal through and hence the hardline approach . They will not force the UK out on no deal , even if Mays deal doesn’t get through they will still allow a short extension .
For some reason parts of the media and public have swallowed the EU line as being set in stone .