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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running
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In other news
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1106658708388528128 I wonder, is the answer to fix our broken politics to vote LD and TIG?
Or Chuka Umunas Independent league of Democrats?
F1 pre-race ramble will likely go up this evening.
I'M ON
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1106864839073415168
The four betting favourites more or less equal odds don’t make much sense to me, either - are there any you would be laying at this point ?
I wonder about Vanity Fair, “Man, I’m just born to be in it” O’Rourke.
Has he blown it by going for president instead of another Senate shot ? He’s going to have a lot of Democrats trying to demolish his myth, rather than the entire party behind him for the next year.
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1106861660315234304
So if MV3 is defeated we then get a series of votes on different breeds of unicorn. I would expect them all to be defeated too.
Then what? MV4? A vote on revoking A50? A vote on putting May's deal to the public in a second referendum?
Without parliament passing something by Brexit Day, why should the 27 grant us any kind of extension?
That then leads to either No Deal Brexit or Tezzie blinking and revoking at 22:55 on the 29th.
And now I shall go out and do something to promote a cause I believe in. I shall purchase refreshments for the upcoming Calcutta Cup match
If you are an ERG MP though, you might continue your crusade, determined to hold out until the end. That comes with a very real risk of No Brexit rather than No Deal. Realisitically, there will never be another opportunity to Leave. Sure, you could be a standard-bearer for the Really Pissed Off. Point out that every British ill is down to us not having Brexited. In other words, become Nigel Farage. But some - many - will blame YOU for those ills still visiting us. Because unlike Farage, who was not an MP, you could have stopped them. If only you hadn't been such a purist twat. The rest of your life is a long time to have to watch generations of Juncker's successors, lording it over us. Thinking "If only....."
It seems unfathomable that when you have worked yourself into a lather for decades over the ills of the EU, you are going to give up the chance to be finally parted from it. But we AREN'T parted from it, they will cry. We are a vassal of Europe. Well, up to a point. You think if this was Frexit, the French would honour Macron's Shit Deal until the end of time? Of course not.
Just bloody well swallow your wretched pride, sign up to May's Deal, then oust May at the earliest. Work to elect somebody who commits to TRY to undertake the trade agreement, but will prepare for An Alternative if the EU deal proves to come with a price-tag that's too high. Yes, you are still going to be fighting the establishment every step of the way. Better that than being wound ever tighter into Brussel's clutches. That will be far, far worse.
And a reminder. You stood as Conservative MPs. Not ERG MPs. Those who voted for you did so for many reasons, but for many it was because you had signed up to Leave the EU. You can't claim some great moral authority to implement the purest Brexit, when to do so would require commiting a fraud upon your voters.
Could be even more tedious than your normal output....
Oh how I hoped and dreamed of an Ed Balls defeat, and now in hindsight...
The Calcutta Cup was so named in 1879.
Calcutta only officially became Kolkata in 2001. More than half a century after imperial rule ended.
(Although, I'm never quite sure if Bombay Mix is Imperialist.... Presumably it was first mixed at the time of it being Bombay, so would be historically inaccurate to call it "Mumbai Mix". Unless of course, the mix you acquire IS actually mixed in Mumbai and exported...would that be Mumbai Bombay Mix???)
Any of Berlusconi's mates specialists in radioactive poisonings?
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1106826557446897665
Now imagine you spend your time instead either in the Westminster bars or among the twatter ranters.
@britainelects
4h4 hours ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 39% (+3)
CON: 35% (-5)
LDEM: 10% ()
UKIP: 5% (-)
via @Survation, 15 Mar
Chgs. w/ 18 Feb
Is this a 2018 or 2019 Poll?
Oh Jeremy Corbyn
Things will tend to diverge or converge on their own momentum afterwards in any case.
Not to mention the policies of various future governments will lead to divergence or convergence on various issues.
The ERG seem obsessed with Brexit being an event rather than a process.
Looks suspiciously like a 2018 poll to me
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1106850197169205248
Not quite sure how you can leave your Association? Whatever looks like there might be one less to support the Deal.
I guess you could multiply the two and compare miles walked to assess impact or effort or something.
10,000 versus 700,000.
Now for one of my favourite days of the year, last day of the Six Nations. As good an excuse as any to spend eight hours in the pub! Cheers to all PBrs, and may the best teams win!
Apparently his aides have calmed him down by saying there is little chance of Biden actually getting through the primary, as Dems have moved so far left.
There are two polls in this morning’s papers – Survation in the Mail and YouGov in the Times.
Survation have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday, and changes are from mkid-February.
YouGov have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 6%(+3). Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday, and changes are from the start of March.
Long long shot, but he's good. Very good.
As I posted last night, could be a big surprise dark horse if gets to the debates.
Axelrod is a fan.
Could this become a trend (Yes, Grieve, I'm looking at you....)
Split probably isn’t good enough for Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/tonyroe/status/1106848562854481920
Biden will be an interesting test of whether the US is yearning for a grown up after four years of Trump, or still fears a Continuity Clinton Washington Insider. He could fit both roles OK!
These geniuses have inadvertently created the perfect metaphor for their Brexit.
It will be easy!!! Promise. A gentle 200 mile stroll through sunny spring streets lined with cheering union jack wavers.
Reality: gale force winds, driving rain, hard, deserted roads and empty, sodden, muddy fields.
A classic.
Would you go to a bar and order a Mumbai Saphire and Tonic?
I don't expect that to be repeated.
That there isn’t another zero on Gabbard’s price continues to confound me.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1106884675589554177
Instead of heading straight down the A60 ! I suspect plenty of other parts are similiar, Google maps doesn't pick out the best walking routes...