What's everyone's odds on (assuming May's deal and no deal are voted down) us extending?
I've heard rumblings from the EU that Macron will say non, rumours of concessions on Gibraltar, etc. What are the odds that May will come back from Europe and say "you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
90%. Crashing out could still happen but after an extension.
Those that want a second referendum want to remain. So far, so obvious. So they will only push for such a referendum if they think that they can achieve that objective. If remain is a possibility I think that the EU may well play ball and allow (positively encourage) us to keep the rag bag of loons that are our MEPs. To have a country go through 2 years of misery and internal division and then change its mind is a prize the EU would treasure, even if it means having a seriously disgruntled UK to deal with in years to come.
I think that there is a majority in Parliament for such a move, there always has been despite the promises that they made when elected in 2017. The problem that they have is that majority does not include the current PM or, for that matter, the LOTO. This makes it very difficult to introduce, let alone pass, the necessary legislation.
If the Tiggers had doubled in size this last week and, critically, included another half dozen Tories, the government would have lost its notional majority and it may well have been that a more amenable PM might have been selected on a government of national unity basis. I don't see the current Tory party going down that route. Not only would it be utterly self destructive but the majority of remainers in Parliament does not include a majority in the Tory party.
The question is therefore whether this time May can get a majority for her deal. It's not going to be easy since the majority don't want to leave at all. Even if the ERG have a moment of clarity and vote for it May is likely to be short unless she gets more Labour support than she got the last time. Will the threat of a no deal Brexit be enough? I have my doubts but I also have my hopes.
My sense is that the EU-the people if not necessarily the governments-are looking forward to a future without us. We've now become the neigbours from hell and the sooner we move out the sooner they can get on with their lives.
We can only hope so. I genuinely think we will have a much better relationship with the EU once we have moved out than if we are coerced into continuing an unhappy cohabitation. But I don't think those that want remain see it that way. They are as delusional as the wildest ERG madmen.
I wouldn't go that far but the central point I agree with.
What's everyone's odds on (assuming May's deal and no deal are voted down) us extending?
I've heard rumblings from the EU that Macron will say non, rumours of concessions on Gibraltar, etc. What are the odds that May will come back from Europe and say "you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
It is possible that the EU will simply accept a short extension. I expect that if the EU makes a counter-proposal of a long extension (to start trade talks) that this would be agreed to by the Commons. So I would say that an extension is more likely than not, but that there's still a big chance of it not happening. Maybe 1-in-3.
What's everyone's odds on (assuming May's deal and no deal are voted down) us extending?
I've heard rumblings from the EU that Macron will say non, rumours of concessions on Gibraltar, etc. What are the odds that May will come back from Europe and say "you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
It is possible that the EU will simply accept a short extension. I expect that if the EU makes a counter-proposal of a long extension (to start trade talks) that this would be agreed to by the Commons. So I would say that an extension is more likely than not, but that there's still a big chance of it not happening. Maybe 1-in-3.
But would it be agreed to by May? If May decided to she could say 2 years isn't happening and take her deal back to the commons on a deal or no deal showdown.
The commons would go ballistic, but since May killed the Cooper amendment I don't see how they could stop her. The EU summit is on the 21-22 March, brexit day is the 29th. It's not enough time for the commons to size control and force May to accept a long extension.
The problem with the referendum idea for anyone who thinks Brexit is a disaster (ie everyone with an ounce of awareness) is if May's Deal wins. Her concept of hard Brexit will be taken as Holy Writ, just as the original referendum was, when it really is all smoke and mirrors to get the UK out of the EU.
I would characterise May's Brexit as being as soft as is possible while ending Freedom of Movement. That seems like a reasonable compromise to me, though I would have preferred more people to have been involved in making that compromise - and indeed May has already conceded that the next stage should be opened up further.
Also, though I am a bit weary about this, it is worth pointing out that the main issue is the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration on the future relationship is not binding, and we should probably set it aside when it comes to a referendum and vote only on the withdrawal agreement.
Those that want a second referendum want to remain. So far, so obvious. So they will only push for such a referendum if they think that they can achieve that objective. If remain is a possibility I think that the EU may well play ball and allow (positively encourage) us to keep the rag bag of loons that are our MEPs.
If the Tiggers had doubled in size this last week and, critically, included another half dozen Tories, the government would have lost its notional majority and it may well have been that a more amenable PM might have been selected on a government of national unity basis. I don't see the current Tory party going down that route. Not only would it be utterly self destructive but the majority of remainers in Parliament does not include a majority in the Tory party.
The question is therefore whether this time May can get a majority for her deal. It's not going to be easy since the majority don't want to leave at all. Even if the ERG have a moment of clarity and vote for it May is likely to be short unless she gets more Labour support than she got the last time. Will the threat of a no deal Brexit be enough? I have my doubts but I also have my hopes.
My sense is that the EU-the people if not necessarily the governments-are looking forward to a future without us. We've now become the neigbours from hell and the sooner we move out the sooner they can get on with their lives.
We can only hope so. I genuinely think we will have a much better relationship with the EU once we have moved out than if we are coerced into continuing an unhappy cohabitation. But I don't think those that want remain see it that way. They are as delusional as the wildest ERG madmen.
If Britain crashes out with no deal, the harm that will cause our European neighbours will ensure that we will not have better relations with them for a very long time to come.
Fails to explain why person A can see them, but person B can't
It can’t because she’s talking out of her arse.
Watson isn’t, as I understand it, trying to conduct parallel investigations. What he is trying to do is monitor the number of complaints, when they come in, how they are dealt with, outcome, time taken etc. In short, he is keeping the sort of bog standard management information that any sort of half-way competent organisation would keep. Why? Because there is no trust in what the General Secretary is doing.
What's everyone's odds on (assuming May's deal and no deal are voted down) us extending?
I've heard rumblings from the EU that Macron will say non, rumours of concessions on Gibraltar, etc. What are the odds that May will come back from Europe and say "you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
It is possible that the EU will simply accept a short extension. I expect that if the EU makes a counter-proposal of a long extension (to start trade talks) that this would be agreed to by the Commons. So I would say that an extension is more likely than not, but that there's still a big chance of it not happening. Maybe 1-in-3.
But would it be agreed to by May? If May decided to she could say 2 years isn't happening and take her deal back to the commons on a deal or no deal showdown.
The commons would go ballistic, but since May killed the Cooper amendment I don't see how they could stop her. The EU summit is on the 21-22 March, brexit day is the 29th. It's not enough time for the commons to size control and force May to accept a long extension.
May has been forced to concede the vote on Article 50 extension by Remainers in her Cabinet. I don't think she could avoid a Commons vote on a long extension if that was on offer from the EU, without losing those ministers. We come to a stage where there are many imponderables and I don't rule anything out.
Insulting the voters isn't always the best way to gain those votes.
Do you think there are still Leave voters who can remember why they wanted to leave?
Some of it was to annoy people like you. Another was to act as a disruption to a cosy political setup. On that level it has been a a tremendous success.
Fails to explain why person A can see them, but person B can't
It can’t because she’s talking out of her arse.
Watson isn’t, as I understand it, trying to conduct parallel investigations. What he is trying to do is monitor the number of complaints, when they come in, how they are dealt with, outcome, time taken etc. In short, he is keeping the sort of bog standard management information that any sort of half-way competent organisation would keep. Why? Because there is no trust in what the General Secretary is doing.
Why would Watson want to? He hasn't the time and he's notoriously poor at them.
The reason this is happening is because the PLP believe Formby is incompetent, dishonest or racist and that is why they are in trouble. Therefore Watson is trying to introduce oversight which she will not get from Corbyn due to (a) his lack of capacity and (b) her links to UNITE.
The trouble is - and the reason why this is happening - that the PLP are right. But she cannot admit that without resigning.
What's everyone's odds on (assuming May's deal and no deal are voted down) us extending?
I've heard rumblings from the EU that Macron will say non, rumours of concessions on Gibraltar, etc. What are the odds that May will come back from Europe and say "you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
It is possible that the EU will simply accept a short extension. I expect that if the EU makes a counter-proposal of a long extension (to start trade talks) that this would be agreed to by the Commons. So I would say that an extension is more likely than not, but that there's still a big chance of it not happening. Maybe 1-in-3.
But would it be agreed to by May? If May decided to she could say 2 years isn't happening and take her deal back to the commons on a deal or no deal showdown.
The commons would go ballistic, but since May killed the Cooper amendment I don't see how they could stop her. The EU summit is on the 21-22 March, brexit day is the 29th. It's not enough time for the commons to size control and force May to accept a long extension.
May has been forced to concede the vote on Article 50 extension by Remainers in her Cabinet. I don't think she could avoid a Commons vote on a long extension if that was on offer from the EU, without losing those ministers. We come to a stage where there are many imponderables and I don't rule anything out.
However those cabinate members were going to seize control of the timetable. Now May has control of the time table; and with a week between the summit and brexit day there isn't time to seize it.
May could afford to loose them because they'd still have to vote her deal or no deal.
Fails to explain why person A can see them, but person B can't
It can’t because she’s talking out of her arse.
Watson isn’t, as I understand it, trying to conduct parallel investigations. What he is trying to do is monitor the number of complaints, when they come in, how they are dealt with, outcome, time taken etc. In short, he is keeping the sort of bog standard management information that any sort of half-way competent organisation would keep. Why? Because there is no trust in what the General Secretary is doing.
Why would Watson want to? He hasn't the time and he's notoriously poor at them.
The reason this is happening is because the PLP believe Formby is incompetent, dishonest or racist and that is why they are in trouble. Therefore Watson is trying to introduce oversight which she will not get from Corbyn due to (a) his lack of capacity and (b) her links to UNITE.
The trouble is - and the reason why this is happening - that the PLP are right. But she cannot admit that without resigning.
Is Watson's play to make a 'She goes or I go' gambit? Since he cannot strike at Corbyn directly?
The problem with the referendum idea for anyone who thinks Brexit is a disaster (ie everyone with an ounce of awareness) is if May's Deal wins. Her concept of hard Brexit will be taken as Holy Writ, just as the original referendum was, when it really is all smoke and mirrors to get the UK out of the EU.
I would characterise May's Brexit as being as soft as is possible while ending Freedom of Movement. That seems like a reasonable compromise to me, though I would have preferred more people to have been involved in making that compromise - and indeed May has already conceded that the next stage should be opened up further.
Also, though I am a bit weary about this, it is worth pointing out that the main issue is the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration on the future relationship is not binding, and we should probably set it aside when it comes to a referendum and vote only on the withdrawal agreement.
I can’t see how you see her deal as soft. Her insistence on free movement of labour restrictions means its rock hard Brexit. The WA points to us leaving lock stock and barrel the entire EU project, and jurisdiction, it points very much to us not been a close partner, like Iceland, Switzerland and Norway are, but more of a Canada or japan.
Not sure its about the blame game anymore. Labour have split into three different groupings, you can hear the tearing apart noises in Sussex.
One of Labour's problems at present stems from the way the deputy leader is chosen, i.e. independently from the leader. The trouble-maker Watson (who has form for sedition) needs to be dispatched and replaced by a Corbynite. His latest action has correctly been called out by the party secretary Formby.
I think that's right. However bad many of us think Corbyn is Watson is infinitely worse
Seriously?
Yes. Watson is driven by naked ambition. The extent of his interest in anti semitism is virtue signalling about a subject he has no knowledge of in the hope of becoming a leadership contender. Corbyn's faults are out-dated policies and lack of leadership abilities but essentially for a Labour leader at least his hearts in the right place.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
Fails to explain why person A can see them, but person B can't
It can’t because she’s talking out of her arse.
Watson isn’t, as I understand it, trying to conduct parallel investigations. What he is trying to do is monitor the number of complaints, when they come in, how they are dealt with, outcome, time taken etc. In short, he is keeping the sort of bog standard management information that any sort of half-way competent organisation would keep. Why? Because there is no trust in what the General Secretary is doing.
Why would Watson want to? He hasn't the time and he's notoriously poor at them.
The reason this is happening is because the PLP believe Formby is incompetent, dishonest or racist and that is why they are in trouble. Therefore Watson is trying to introduce oversight which she will not get from Corbyn due to (a) his lack of capacity and (b) her links to UNITE.
The trouble is - and the reason why this is happening - that the PLP are right. But she cannot admit that without resigning.
Is Watson's play to make a 'She goes or I go' gambit? Since he cannot strike at Corbyn directly?
He would lose such a trial of strength. Corbyn cannot afford to alienate McCluskey while I am sure he would be delighted to see the back of Watson.
What he needs to do is force her into the position where she does something so stupid or outrageous - such as, for example, failing to expel a member who threatened a Jew with a lethal weapon (that's a hypothetical example btw but there have been death threats) that she is left with no choice but to resign, as at that point Corbyn's and the far right's hold over the party is considerably weakened. That I think is why he wants to compile a separate log of all complaints and outcomes.
Fails to explain why person A can see them, but person B can't
It can’t because she’s talking out of her arse.
Watson isn’t, as I understand it, trying to conduct parallel investigations. What he is trying to do is monitor the number of complaints, when they come in, how they are dealt with, outcome, time taken etc. In short, he is keeping the sort of bog standard management information that any sort of half-way competent organisation would keep. Why? Because there is no trust in what the General Secretary is doing.
Why would Watson want to? He hasn't the time and he's notoriously poor at them.
The reason this is happening is because the PLP believe Formby is incompetent, dishonest or racist and that is why they are in trouble. Therefore Watson is trying to introduce oversight which she will not get from Corbyn due to (a) his lack of capacity and (b) her links to UNITE.
The trouble is - and the reason why this is happening - that the PLP are right. But she cannot admit that without resigning.
Is Watson's play to make a 'She goes or I go' gambit? Since he cannot strike at Corbyn directly?
I think that he is doing this to show those MPs that are thinking of leaving that he has tried everything. If this fails then he may feel better able to leave, very possibly with a load of MPs with him. What would really shake things up if is if enough MPs left so that Labour was no longer the second largest grouping in the Commons.
Not sure its about the blame game anymore. Labour have split into three different groupings, you can hear the tearing apart noises in Sussex.
One of Labour's problems at present stems from the way the deputy leader is chosen, i.e. independently from the leader. The trouble-maker Watson (who has form for sedition) needs to be dispatched and replaced by a Corbynite. His latest action has correctly been called out by the party secretary Formby.
I think that's right. However bad many of us think Corbyn is Watson is infinitely worse
Seriously?
Yes. Watson is driven by naked ambition. The extent of his interest in anti semitism is virtue signalling about a subject he has no knowledge of in the hope of becoming a leadership contender. Corbyn's faults are out-dated policies and lack of leadership abilities but essentially for a Labour leader at least his hearts in the right place.
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
The problem with the referendum idea for anyone who thinks Brexit is a disaster (ie everyone with an ounce of awareness) is if May's Deal wins. Her concept of hard Brexit will be taken as Holy Writ, just as the original referendum was, when it really is all smoke and mirrors to get the UK out of the EU.
I would characterise May's Brexit as being as soft as is possible while ending Freedom of Movement. That seems like a reasonable compromise to me, though I would have preferred more people to have been involved in making that compromise - and indeed May has already conceded that the next stage should be opened up further.
Also, though I am a bit weary about this, it is worth pointing out that the main issue is the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration on the future relationship is not binding, and we should probably set it aside when it comes to a referendum and vote only on the withdrawal agreement.
You can't say it is as soft as possible if it directs toward leaving the SM and CU
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
The problem with the referendum idea for anyone who thinks Brexit is a disaster (ie everyone with an ounce of awareness) is if May's Deal wins. Her concept of hard Brexit will be taken as Holy Writ, just as the original referendum was, when it really is all smoke and mirrors to get the UK out of the EU.
I would characterise May's Brexit as being as soft as is possible while ending Freedom of Movement. That seems like a reasonable compromise to me, though I would have preferred more people to have been involved in making that compromise - and indeed May has already conceded that the next stage should be opened up further.
Also, though I am a bit weary about this, it is worth pointing out that the main issue is the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration on the future relationship is not binding, and we should probably set it aside when it comes to a referendum and vote only on the withdrawal agreement.
The Withdrawal Agreement is the stuff the EU wants. In exchange the UK gets s necessary, if time limited, extension of the status quo as a transition, and a "Political Statement" where the UK says what it wants for the future relationship, as long as it doesn't overtly cross any EU red lines. The Political Statement deliberately doesn't make any of the required trade offs. Its function is to get people in the UK to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement that gives the EU what it wants. The PS isn't in any way a blueprint. At best it sets some parameters for future negotiations.
My fear if May's Deal wins a referendum, is that people will take that as an instruction to implement the Political Statement. It's incapable of being implemented in any form similar to the one that has been agreed.
If the rumours from week before last are true - and everything else played out as rumoured - there is a batch of Lab MPs at the end of the plank holding their jump pending some very short run events. A shame for hopes that the party system might be breaking, as TIG is losing momentum
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
Worth reading the whole interview. If Sir Ivan and EU capitals were shocked that Brexit was about ending FoM and securing trade deals they can't have been paying attention during the campaign.
Insulting the voters isn't always the best way to gain those votes.
Do you think there are still Leave voters who can remember why they wanted to leave?
Some of it was to annoy people like you. Another was to act as a disruption to a cosy political setup. On that level it has been a a tremendous success.
Problem is, Brexit will fail on every other level. It more or less has already.
Edit And it will be Political Establishment that will have to deal with the mess. Brexiteers won't hang around to put in the hard work. Brexit will fail at that level too. Voting Leave just to annoy Roger seems thin gruel, even if it can be chalked up as a success at that one level.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
Not sure its about the blame game anymore. Labour have split into three different groupings, you can hear the tearing apart noises in Sussex.
One of Labour's problems at present stems from the way the deputy leader is chosen, i.e. independently from the leader. The trouble-maker Watson (who has form for sedition) needs to be dispatched and replaced by a Corbynite. His latest action has correctly been called out by the party secretary Formby.
I think that's right. However bad many of us think Corbyn is Watson is infinitely worse
Seriously?
Yes. Watson is driven by naked ambition. The extent of his interest in anti semitism is virtue signalling about a subject he has no knowledge of in the hope of becoming a leadership contender. Corbyn's faults are out-dated policies and lack of leadership abilities but essentially for a Labour leader at least his hearts in the right place.
No. Corbyn’s heart is not in the right place.
It's all relative but I can't imagine him writing letters behind his leaders back as Watson did with Blair or reporting Leon Britten to the Met police for being a paedophile without evidence.
If you look at Watson's history a pattern emerges of a particular type of disloyal self aggrandising sleazeball. I don't sense that with Corbyn
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Loads of business and professional people support the Conservatives, in my experience. After all, a large minority of them are anti-EU.
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
Worth reading the whole interview. If Sir Ivan and EU capitals were shocked that Brexit was about ending FoM and securing trade deals they can't have been paying attention during the campaign.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
Whilst I am intending to go on the 23 March march, I am coming round to the view that as the choice of either "Mrs May's Deal" - another two years, at least, of uncertainty or from "No Deal" - immediate chaos, will lead to the annihilation of the Conservative Party it may all be worth it!
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
There may be problems between the Conservatives and big business but small businesses seems solid for the Conservatives.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
Worth reading the whole interview. If Sir Ivan and EU capitals were shocked that Brexit was about ending FoM and securing trade deals they can't have been paying attention during the campaign.
The problem with the referendum idea for anyone who thinks Brexit is a disaster (ie everyone with an ounce of awareness) is if May's Deal wins. Her concept of hard Brexit will be taken as Holy Writ, just as the original referendum was, when it really is all smoke and mirrors to get the UK out of the EU.
I would characterise May's Brexit as being as soft as is possible while ending Freedom of Movement. That seems like a reasonable compromise to me, though I would have preferred more people to have been involved in making that compromise - and indeed May has already conceded that the next stage should be opened up further.
Also, though I am a bit weary about this, it is worth pointing out that the main issue is the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration on the future relationship is not binding, and we should probably set it aside when it comes to a referendum and vote only on the withdrawal agreement.
You can't say it is as soft as possible if it directs toward leaving the SM and CU
Sure, it's not as soft as possible. You can get a lot softer if you're willing to accept freedom of movement. What I said is that if you start with the condition that Freedom of Movement ends, then it is the softest possible.
Realistically, given the status of public opinion in the country, I don't see how you can retain freedom of movement. You would have to win the public argument for that first.
A few days ago there was a discussion on the boundaries of London: at what point do you stop being in London. This interesting and informative YouTube explains it for you.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Loads of business and professional people support the Conservatives, in my experience. After all, a large minority of them are anti-EU.
Large numbers of older working class voters still support Labour. My point was that the automatic link was broken. I am not convinced the minority of business folk who support Brexit is very big.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
He was very specific that Fianancial services would decline by 60%, Insurance services would decline by 19% and general business services would decline by 10%.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
We have a services surplus of £28bn with the EU. Even if that fell by two thirds, which seems excessive if the WA is passed, it's still equivalent to a very small proportion of service sector output. What I find striking is how small international trade in services is, compared to trade in goods.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
There may be problems between the Conservatives and big business but small businesses seems solid for the Conservatives.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
What would you describe a young person who starts a small business as other than aspirant?
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
Worth reading the whole interview. If Sir Ivan and EU capitals were shocked that Brexit was about ending FoM and securing trade deals they can't have been paying attention during the campaign.
They'd never paid any attention to the proles before and didn't expect they would have to now.
Plenty of smug, self-satisfaction in the interview but that's standard with our Sir Humphreys.
If they thought that Britain would "leave the EU" but "Keep Freedom of Movement" they must think British voters are very thick.....
Is that true ? We know that a minority of leave voters are prepared to keep freedom of movement - along with those who voted remain. That perhaps constitutes a majority of voters.
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
Worth reading the whole interview. If Sir Ivan and EU capitals were shocked that Brexit was about ending FoM and securing trade deals they can't have been paying attention during the campaign.
They'd never paid any attention to the proles before and didn't expect they would have to now.
Plenty of smug, self-satisfaction in the interview but that's standard with our Sir Humphreys.
If they thought that Britain would "leave the EU" but "Keep Freedom of Movement" they must think British voters are very thick.....
More likely they were hoping we’d ask for SM membership but without FoM, so they could tell us where to go expecting we’d decide FoM wasn’t so bad after all.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters of those 3 it is just Remain has more supporters but also more vociferous opponents.
Brexit but stay in the Single Market and Customs Union actually gets the least opposition with only 28% saying that would be a bad option but that is still 1% more than the 27% who think it would be a good option.
So voters think all options would be bad on a net basis from here but the Deal and BINO have the least opposition
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
We have a services surplus of £28bn with the EU. Even if that fell by two thirds, which seems excessive if the WA is passed, it's still equivalent to a very small proportion of service sector output. What I find striking is how small international trade in services is, compared to trade in goods.
How often do you buy something physical which was made abroad compared with how often do you buy a service which was made abroad.
International trade in services is concentrated in a few sectors - tourism, high end finance, some professional and educational services.
I'm rather surprised that low cost education and training via the internet isn't a bigger thing.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
There may be problems between the Conservatives and big business but small businesses seems solid for the Conservatives.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
What would you describe a young person who starts a small business as other than aspirant?
How many young people start their own business ?
And they might be desperate or deluded rather than aspirant.
They also might be more Conservative inclined than the average young person.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters of those 3 it is just Remain has more supporters but also more vociferous opponents.
Despite the population declining by over a third in recent years Redbridge still has the fourth highest Jewish population of any London borough - the synagogue in Gants Hill once had the highest congregation of any in the whole of western Europe.
Of course the majority traditionally voted Conservative and there probably aren't many in Ilford Momentum or within the two Ilford CLPs. Mike Gapes can remember an era when they were a lot more influential in local politics. Of course he is close to retirement so has little to lose - you wonder how long Wes Streeting will want to stay but there is no sign of him leaving yet.
It has been sad to see Ilford fall in so many ways. It used to be a relatively pleasant middle and lower middle class suburb - no longer.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters.
You're reading the wrong figures.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39% Soft Brexit - 26% No Deal - 19% May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54% May Brexit - 42% No Brexit - 41% Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2% Soft Brexit: -4% May Brexit: -29% No Deal: -35%
There is also an issue for many Tories and Labour for the Euro elections and it is that of candidate selection. For example one of the existing MEPs Charles Tannock would be completely unacceptable to my area. Would CCHQ allow Tory candidates to stand on a remain agenda or even roll them over without an election putting out that view? Its a tricky one,
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
We have a services surplus of £28bn with the EU. Even if that fell by two thirds, which seems excessive if the WA is passed, it's still equivalent to a very small proportion of service sector output. What I find striking is how small international trade in services is, compared to trade in goods.
How often do you buy something physical which was made abroad compared with how often do you buy a service which was made abroad.
International trade in services is concentrated in a few sectors - tourism, high end finance, some professional and educational services.
I'm rather surprised that low cost education and training via the internet isn't a bigger thing.
There’s thousands of excellent online courses, the issue is trying to get meaningful qualifications at the end of it. The institutions that award the certificates have their expensive business model and don’t want to see it undermined.
And as the immigration figures when she was Home Secretary and since she has been PM have shown, she has utterly failed in reducing non-EU immigration. So she is storing up a whole heap of trouble for herself and the Tories.
Worth reading the whole interview. If Sir Ivan and EU capitals were shocked that Brexit was about ending FoM and securing trade deals they can't have been paying attention during the campaign.
They'd never paid any attention to the proles before and didn't expect they would have to now.
Plenty of smug, self-satisfaction in the interview but that's standard with our Sir Humphreys.
If they thought that Britain would "leave the EU" but "Keep Freedom of Movement" they must think British voters are very thick.....
Is that true ? We know that a minority of leave voters are prepared to keep freedom of movement - along with those who voted remain. That perhaps constitutes a majority of voters.
Yet many who voted Remain would not wish to keep FoM if they didn't have to.
And that's assuming that people know what FoM actually means.
I suspect many believe FoM means being able to go to Benidorm without getting a visa.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters of those 3 it is just Remain has more supporters but also more vociferous opponents.
Brexit but stay in the Single Market and Customs Union actually gets the least opposition with only 28% saying that would be a bad option but that is still 1% more than the 27% who think it would be a good option.
So voters think all options would be bad on a net basis from here but the Deal and BINO have the least opposition
Not sure its about the blame game anymore. Labour have split into three different groupings, you can hear the tearing apart noises in Sussex.
One of Labour's problems at present stems from the way the deputy leader is chosen, i.e. independently from the leader. The trouble-maker Watson (who has form for sedition) needs to be dispatched and replaced by a Corbynite. His latest action has correctly been called out by the party secretary Formby.
I think that's right. However bad many of us think Corbyn is Watson is infinitely worse
Seriously?
Yes. Watson is driven by naked ambition. The extent of his interest in anti semitism is virtue signalling about a subject he has no knowledge of in the hope of becoming a leadership contender. Corbyn's faults are out-dated policies and lack of leadership abilities but essentially for a Labour leader at least his hearts in the right place.
No. Corbyn’s heart is not in the right place.
It's all relative but I can't imagine him writing letters behind his leaders back as Watson did with Blair or reporting Leon Britten to the Met police for being a paedophile without evidence.
If you look at Watson's history a pattern emerges of a particular type of disloyal self aggrandising sleazeball. I don't sense that with Corbyn
Actually, I always thought there was a considerable element of anti-Semitism involved with the smear against Leon Britten.
Catching up this morning there seems to be lots of ideas on the way forward, some plausible others not so
However, Sky reporting just now that Barnier has confirmed movement in their position to accommodate UK issues on the backstop and that really is the key
Interesting to see if this is a turning point
Problem is that Labour and the ERG/DUP would have to swallow an enormous amount of humble pie: the former in conceding that Theresa's played a blinder; the latter in conceding that the EU were accommodating and helpful. I can't see any of the aforementioned ever doing that.
Actually Barnier has said a commitment of the EU's intention that the backstop should be temporary could be added as an addendum to the text, close to what Rees-Mogg was asking for when he asked for a guarantee to be added to the appendix last week, a clear shift from his previous position there should be no Brexit at all as the threat of extension to Article 50 and no Brexit begins to rise
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Loads of business and professional people support the Conservatives, in my experience. After all, a large minority of them are anti-EU.
Large numbers of older working class voters still support Labour. My point was that the automatic link was broken. I am not convinced the minority of business folk who support Brexit is very big.
40% of AB voters supported Brexit. That proportion would be far lower among City workers and exporters to the EU, as well as university workers; but higher among occupations like solicitors, accountants, and business owners that supply the domestic market.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters.
You're reading the wrong figures.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39% Soft Brexit - 26% No Deal - 19% May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54% May Brexit - 42% No Brexit - 41% Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2% Soft Brexit: -4% May Brexit: -29% No Deal: -35%
"Acceptable" brings May's deal much closer to Remain, and places soft Brexit in the lead.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Loads of business and professional people support the Conservatives, in my experience. After all, a large minority of them are anti-EU.
Large numbers of older working class voters still support Labour. My point was that the automatic link was broken. I am not convinced the minority of business folk who support Brexit is very big.
40% of AB voters supported Brexit. That proportion would be far lower among City workers and exporters to the EU, as well as university workers; but higher among occupations like solicitors, accountants, and business owners that supply the domestic market.
The more important dividing line among the AB group was between workers and retirees.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters.
You're reading the wrong figures.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39% Soft Brexit - 26% No Deal - 19% May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54% May Brexit - 42% No Brexit - 41% Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2% Soft Brexit: -4% May Brexit: -29% No Deal: -35%
OK I was looking at the early February figures but even on the latter figures from Yougov(who predicted wrongly Remain would win EUref2) there is only a 1% difference between those who think the Deal would be bad from those who think No Brexit would be bad.
12% more voters also think No Brexit would be bad to those who think Soft Brexit would be bad. Indeed Yougov last week found a Norway style Deal the most acceptable compromise
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
We have a services surplus of £28bn with the EU. Even if that fell by two thirds, which seems excessive if the WA is passed, it's still equivalent to a very small proportion of service sector output. What I find striking is how small international trade in services is, compared to trade in goods.
How often do you buy something physical which was made abroad compared with how often do you buy a service which was made abroad.
International trade in services is concentrated in a few sectors - tourism, high end finance, some professional and educational services.
I'm rather surprised that low cost education and training via the internet isn't a bigger thing.
There’s thousands of excellent online courses, the issue is trying to get meaningful qualifications at the end of it. The institutions that award the certificates have their expensive business model and don’t want to see it undermined.
Good point.
But for people who already have the needed qualifications then those 'unofficial' courses are highly useful in broadening your education and skills base.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
There may be problems between the Conservatives and big business but small businesses seems solid for the Conservatives.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
What would you describe a young person who starts a small business as other than aspirant?
How many young people start their own business ?
And they might be desperate or deluded rather than aspirant.
They also might be more Conservative inclined than the average young person.
I don't know how many do, but about half my customers (by number not by value) are aspirant young people starting new businesses. I don't get the feeling that any of them are Conservative inclined - though obviously it isn't a subject that comes up very often. Brexit does come up from time to time, and they are not only opposed to it, but more tellingly automatically assume that I and everyone else is. I make this point fairly often on here - you have to be fairly old to even regard leaving or remaining in the EU as an actual political choice. For younger people you may as well be talking about the Corn Laws.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters.
You're reading the wrong figures.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39% Soft Brexit - 26% No Deal - 19% May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54% May Brexit - 42% No Brexit - 41% Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2% Soft Brexit: -4% May Brexit: -29% No Deal: -35%
"Acceptable" brings May's deal much closer to Remain, and places soft Brexit in the lead.
Adding Good + Acceptable, May's deal has lost support in the last month from 40% to 37% and No Brexit has gained from 44% to 46%.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
We have a services surplus of £28bn with the EU. Even if that fell by two thirds, which seems excessive if the WA is passed, it's still equivalent to a very small proportion of service sector output. What I find striking is how small international trade in services is, compared to trade in goods.
Apologies, it looks like I was thinking of something else with the two thirds figure, corrected by Ralph, although the corrected figures are bad enough. Bear in mind these drops are relative to the total trade, which is a lot more than the £28 billion surplus you refer to.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters.
You're reading the wrong figures.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39% Soft Brexit - 26% No Deal - 19% May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54% May Brexit - 42% No Brexit - 41% Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2% Soft Brexit: -4% May Brexit: -29% No Deal: -35%
OK I was looking at the early February figures but even on the latter figures from Yougov(who predicted wrongly Remain would win EUref2) there is only a 1% difference between those who think the Deal would be bad from those who think No Brexit would be bad.
12% more voters also think No Brexit would be bad to those who think Soft Brexit would be bad. Indeed Yougov last week found a Norway style Deal the most acceptable compromise
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Loads of business and professional people support the Conservatives, in my experience. After all, a large minority of them are anti-EU.
Large numbers of older working class voters still support Labour. My point was that the automatic link was broken. I am not convinced the minority of business folk who support Brexit is very big.
40% of AB voters supported Brexit. That proportion would be far lower among City workers and exporters to the EU, as well as university workers; but higher among occupations like solicitors, accountants, and business owners that supply the domestic market.
Business owners that supply the domestic market would include people like window cleaners. I only know one of those - only having one set of windows.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
There may be problems between the Conservatives and big business but small businesses seems solid for the Conservatives.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
What would you describe a young person who starts a small business as other than aspirant?
How many young people start their own business ?
And they might be desperate or deluded rather than aspirant.
They also might be more Conservative inclined than the average young person.
I don't know how many do, but about half my customers (by number not by value) are aspirant young people starting new businesses. I don't get the feeling that any of them are Conservative inclined - though obviously it isn't a subject that comes up very often. Brexit does come up from time to time, and they are not only opposed to it, but more tellingly automatically assume that I and everyone else is. I make this point fairly often on here - you have to be fairly old to even regard leaving or remaining in the EU as an actual political choice. For younger people you may as well be talking about the Corn Laws.
You're clearly talking to a very narrow sub-section of the population.
Now we all do that to a greater or lesser degree but its unwise to draw too many, and too wide, conclusions from our personal experiences.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
Of course none of the options are exactly popular.
What if the outcome was we had a second referendum and voted to remain in the EU.
Would you consider this to be a good outcome 37% Would you consider this to be a bad outcome 43%
Those are the January figures. It's now moved to 39% good and 41% bad. Crossover approaching.
Sorry - I misread the figures highlighted in grey as being the current figures as they didn't reproduce the dates on the third page and headline it as 'weighted sample'. It could of course just be the unseasonably warm weather causing people to become confused about what they really want!
But even you admit despite all the current chaos more people think a second referendum and a remain outcome would be a bad not a good outcome!! And Tory voters reject that by 67 to 19% - and we do nominally have a Conservative PM and government.
Not sure its about the blame game anymore. Labour have split into three different groupings, you can hear the tearing apart noises in Sussex.
One of Labour's problems at present stems from the way the deputy leader is chosen, i.e. independently from the leader. The trouble-maker Watson (who has form for sedition) needs to be dispatched and replaced by a Corbynite. His latest action has correctly been called out by the party secretary Formby.
I think that's right. However bad many of us think Corbyn is Watson is infinitely worse
Seriously?
Yes. Watson is driven by naked ambition. The extent of his interest in anti semitism is virtue signalling about a subject he has no knowledge of in the hope of becoming a leadership contender. Corbyn's faults are out-dated policies and lack of leadership abilities but essentially for a Labour leader at least his hearts in the right place.
No. Corbyn’s heart is not in the right place.
It's all relative but I can't imagine him writing letters behind his leaders back as Watson did with Blair or reporting Leon Britten to the Met police for being a paedophile without evidence.
If you look at Watson's history a pattern emerges of a particular type of disloyal self aggrandising sleazeball. I don't sense that with Corbyn
Corbyn has throughout his career been one of the most disloyal Labour MPs of all. He also invited to Parliament in the days after the IRA killed the wives of Tory MPs in Brighton the men who ordered those killings.
Yeah: I’d say that makes him both disloyal and a sleazeball.
Frankly, the fact that we are still faffing around wondering about votes and extensions at this point is downright embarrassing. In 27 days we are out with no deal. There are 20 working days left.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
I've always been convinced that a single market in services required far too much harmonisation of laws to be acceptable to us or a lot of European voters. What we don't have, we won't miss.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
You don't think people will miss the jobs and opportunities they used to have, or the funding for hospitals etc. If trade in services with the EU is cut by two thirds, which is the estimation, that will impact real wealth and real jobs.
Where is the two thirds estimate taken from?
It was some work by Sam Lowe, I think. He looked at UK exports through GATS modes 2 and 4 (cross border supply and presence of persons), which would no longer be supported by the trade agreement. Although a chunk of the business would move to Mode 3 (in country subsidiaries), UK employment and tax revenues would be lost.
He was very specific that Fianancial services would decline by 60%, Insurance services would decline by 19% and general business services would decline by 10%.
That financial services number looks highly dubious.
Especially as the predicted City job losses haven't occurred.
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
Loads of business and professional people support the Conservatives, in my experience. After all, a large minority of them are anti-EU.
Large numbers of older working class voters still support Labour. My point was that the automatic link was broken. I am not convinced the minority of business folk who support Brexit is very big.
40% of AB voters supported Brexit. That proportion would be far lower among City workers and exporters to the EU, as well as university workers; but higher among occupations like solicitors, accountants, and business owners that supply the domestic market.
Business owners that supply the domestic market would include people like window cleaners. I only know one of those - only having one set of windows.
Among my circle of friends, I can think of four solicitors, one senior manager, three barristers, one army officer, one owner of a design company, two accountants, two full time politicians, one teacher, and a senior civil servant who supported Brexit. I'm not saying they represent the majority of their class, but they are not uncommon for people aged 40+
I don't think Labour needs to amend its motion; I predict that after May fails again to get her agreement passed, she'll pivot to putting it to a referendum.
Interesting polling which suggests the most popular outcome is now 'no Brexit'. Not only does it have the highest figures for it being a good outcome, but it has less opposition than May's deal or No Deal.
No 51% think No Deal would be bad, 43% think staying in the EU would be bad but only 37% think the Deal would be bad. So the Deal not No Brexit is the least worst option for Voters.
You're reading the wrong figures.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39% Soft Brexit - 26% No Deal - 19% May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54% May Brexit - 42% No Brexit - 41% Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2% Soft Brexit: -4% May Brexit: -29% No Deal: -35%
OK I was looking at the early February figures but even on the latter figures from Yougov(who predicted wrongly Remain would win EUref2) there is only a 1% difference between those who think the Deal would be bad from those who think No Brexit would be bad.
12% more voters also think No Brexit would be bad to those who think Soft Brexit would be bad. Indeed Yougov last week found a Norway style Deal the most acceptable compromise
I think the Norway option may now be the best Brexit bet in the long term.
The problem with EEA was always free movement but figures last week showing EU net migration to the UK at its lowest level for years and now even negative net migration from Eastern Europe as Eastern European migrants return home after the Brexit vote means that is less of an issue.
In the short term though we need the Deal to get through
That argument between Watson and Formby sounds awfully like the death-rattle of Labour...
And cabinet members opposing the PM and party policy in the press is just one of those things?
Ha. True, that's pretty remarkable and worrying for them. Divisions over Brexit could wreck the Tories yet. But it does feel like that is the only major problem within that party, whereas Labour have several issues at play here.
Both parties have the problem that their one time strongest supporters no longer like them very much. Older working class voters don't seem keen on what Labour has become. The link between the Conservatives and small businesses has completely vanished. The winner will be the one that creates a new support base most effectively. I am not sure which one I'd back.
There may be problems between the Conservatives and big business but small businesses seems solid for the Conservatives.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
What would you describe a young person who starts a small business as other than aspirant?
How many young people start their own business ?
And they might be desperate or deluded rather than aspirant.
They also might be more Conservative inclined than the average young person.
I don't know how many do, but about half my customers (by number not by value) are aspirant young people starting new businesses. I don't get the feeling that any of them are Conservative inclined - though obviously it isn't a subject that comes up very often. Brexit does come up from time to time, and they are not only opposed to it, but more tellingly automatically assume that I and everyone else is. I make this point fairly often on here - you have to be fairly old to even regard leaving or remaining in the EU as an actual political choice. For younger people you may as well be talking about the Corn Laws.
If your young friends assume that everyone else is opposed to Brexit they need to get out a bit more, and follow the news a bit. It isn't rocket science.
I don't think Labour needs to amend its motion; I predict that after May fails again to get her agreement passed, she'll pivot to putting it to a referendum.
Presumably if the EU insists on a second referendum to agree the extension they will also make it a condition that Mrs May leads the campaign for her deal?
I don't think Labour needs to amend its motion; I predict that after May fails again to get her agreement passed, she'll pivot to putting it to a referendum.
Presumably if the EU insists on a second referendum to agree the extension they will also make it a condition that Mrs May leads the campaign for her deal?
We should definitely make it a condition of the referendum that no politician from the EU mentions it at any point or in any way whatsoever and the Juncker, Barnier, Selmayr and Tusk are locked in an oubliette for the duration of the campaign.
I can't think of any surer way to a no-deal calamity than having any of them try to help.
I don't think Labour needs to amend its motion; I predict that after May fails again to get her agreement passed, she'll pivot to putting it to a referendum.
Presumably if the EU insists on a second referendum to agree the extension they will also make it a condition that Mrs May leads the campaign for her deal?
We should definitely make it a condition of the referendum that no politician from the EU mentions it at any point or in any way whatsoever and the Juncker, Barnier, Selmayr and Tusk are locked in an oubliette for the duration of the campaign.
I can't think of any surer way to a no-deal calamity than having any of them try to help.
I doubt that all of them would be able to resist, if solitary confinement isn’t possible.
Comments
Mercifully, he is (a) not actually that bad and (b) not attempting campfire songs, either. This makes it vaguely bearable I suppose
The commons would go ballistic, but since May killed the Cooper amendment I don't see how they could stop her. The EU summit is on the 21-22 March, brexit day is the 29th. It's not enough time for the commons to size control and force May to accept a long extension.
And then there's this: https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/02/25/robert-craig-why-royal-consent-is-required-for-the-proposed-article-50-extension-bill/
Also, though I am a bit weary about this, it is worth pointing out that the main issue is the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration on the future relationship is not binding, and we should probably set it aside when it comes to a referendum and vote only on the withdrawal agreement.
Watson isn’t, as I understand it, trying to conduct parallel investigations. What he is trying to do is monitor the number of complaints, when they come in, how they are dealt with, outcome, time taken etc. In short, he is keeping the sort of bog standard management information that any sort of half-way competent organisation would keep. Why? Because there is no trust in what the General Secretary is doing.
Nice profit in a week.
The reason this is happening is because the PLP believe Formby is incompetent, dishonest or racist and that is why they are in trouble. Therefore Watson is trying to introduce oversight which she will not get from Corbyn due to (a) his lack of capacity and (b) her links to UNITE.
The trouble is - and the reason why this is happening - that the PLP are right. But she cannot admit that without resigning.
May could afford to loose them because they'd still have to vote her deal or no deal.
May’s deal is rubbish because it utterly ignores the needs of 80% of our economy - which is based on services.
A referendum is needed to ensure that the country agrees to the Brexit that is now before us. A deal that no-one likes forced on us in fear and panic at the last minute by a PM who has been unable to get her Cabinet, her party or Parliament behind her on its merits does not have the sort of consent needed to make such a Brexit work. It won’t work - because of that lack of consent - and that will also stymie future relations with the EU.
Pressing the Pause button is the best thing we can do now.
Sadly, I fear it won’t happen and we will likely crash out with no deal or with a deal so unloved by everyone that all the same arguments will continue and will continue to poison British politics and our relations with our neighbours.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1101525020881367041
What he needs to do is force her into the position where she does something so stupid or outrageous - such as, for example, failing to expel a member who threatened a Jew with a lethal weapon (that's a hypothetical example btw but there have been death threats) that she is left with no choice but to resign, as at that point Corbyn's and the far right's hold over the party is considerably weakened. That I think is why he wants to compile a separate log of all complaints and outcomes.
No. Corbyn’s heart is not in the right place.
https://www.stalbanscathedral.org/whatson/music/duke-ellington-sacred-concert,-bruckner-mass-in-e-minor
£10 tickets still available.
My fear if May's Deal wins a referendum, is that people will take that as an instruction to implement the Political Statement. It's incapable of being implemented in any form similar to the one that has been agreed.
Have a good morning.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-rogers-on-brexit-what-surprises-me-is-the-extent-of-the-mess-a-1255789.html
Edit And it will be Political Establishment that will have to deal with the mess. Brexiteers won't hang around to put in the hard work. Brexit will fail at that level too. Voting Leave just to annoy Roger seems thin gruel, even if it can be chalked up as a success at that one level.
If the Deal passes, it will be because enough people see it as second best. No Deal and Remain or more popular, but also more loathed.
If you look at Watson's history a pattern emerges of a particular type of disloyal self aggrandising sleazeball. I don't sense that with Corbyn
Plenty of smug, self-satisfaction in the interview but that's standard with our Sir Humphreys.
If there was a risk that the Conservatives would lose small business support it would be to a 2015 UKIP.
The 2017 GE and the opinion polls since show no evidence that small business support is going to another party.
Where the Conservatives have lost out is among the aspirant young through tuition fees, unaffordable housing etc.
Realistically, given the status of public opinion in the country, I don't see how you can retain freedom of movement. You would have to win the public argument for that first.
So I'm willing to accept it as a compromise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAusbJmRB0c
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nevch5kcuu/Brexit update 1.pdf
We know that a minority of leave voters are prepared to keep freedom of movement - along with those who voted remain. That perhaps constitutes a majority of voters.
Brexit but stay in the Single Market and Customs Union actually gets the least opposition with only 28% saying that would be a bad option but that is still 1% more than the 27% who think it would be a good option.
So voters think all options would be bad on a net basis from here but the Deal and BINO have the least opposition
International trade in services is concentrated in a few sectors - tourism, high end finance, some professional and educational services.
I'm rather surprised that low cost education and training via the internet isn't a bigger thing.
And they might be desperate or deluded rather than aspirant.
They also might be more Conservative inclined than the average young person.
Of course the majority traditionally voted Conservative and there probably aren't many in Ilford Momentum or within the two Ilford CLPs. Mike Gapes can remember an era when they were a lot more influential in local politics. Of course he is close to retirement so has little to lose - you wonder how long Wes Streeting will want to stay but there is no sign of him leaving yet.
It has been sad to see Ilford fall in so many ways. It used to be a relatively pleasant middle and lower middle class suburb - no longer.
Good rankings:
No Brexit - 39%
Soft Brexit - 26%
No Deal - 19%
May Brexit - 13%
Bad rankings:
No Deal - 54%
May Brexit - 42%
No Brexit - 41%
Soft Brexit - 30%
Net:
No Brexit: -2%
Soft Brexit: -4%
May Brexit: -29%
No Deal: -35%
For example one of the existing MEPs Charles Tannock would be completely unacceptable to my area. Would CCHQ allow Tory candidates to stand on a remain agenda or even roll them over without an election putting out that view?
Its a tricky one,
And that's assuming that people know what FoM actually means.
I suspect many believe FoM means being able to go to Benidorm without getting a visa.
What if the outcome was we had a new referendum and voted to remain in the EU.
Would you consider this to be a good outcome 37%
Would you consider this to be a bad outcome 43%
And those considering its a very good outcome are 29% and those considering its a very bad outcome are 36%.
Seems people don't want Brexit or remain either?!! But views remain very polarised.
Don't you just love polls with contradictory messages!
12% more voters also think No Brexit would be bad to those who think Soft Brexit would be bad. Indeed Yougov last week found a Norway style Deal the most acceptable compromise
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1101455352149757952?s=20
But for people who already have the needed qualifications then those 'unofficial' courses are highly useful in broadening your education and skills base.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1100433571343486976?s=20
Head to head though Deal is preferred to No Deal 60% to 40% and EUref2 does lead No Deal 54% to 46%.
EUref2 or Deal are effectively tied 51% to 49%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1101455367991709696?s=20
Now we all do that to a greater or lesser degree but its unwise to draw too many, and too wide, conclusions from our personal experiences.
But even you admit despite all the current chaos more people think a second referendum and a remain outcome would be a bad not a good outcome!! And Tory voters reject that by 67 to 19% - and we do nominally have a Conservative PM and government.
Yeah: I’d say that makes him both disloyal and a sleazeball.
Especially as the predicted City job losses haven't occurred.
Huh.
The problem with EEA was always free movement but figures last week showing EU net migration to the UK at its lowest level for years and now even negative net migration from Eastern Europe as Eastern European migrants return home after the Brexit vote means that is less of an issue.
In the short term though we need the Deal to get through
I can't think of any surer way to a no-deal calamity than having any of them try to help.