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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension
Enthusiastic it was not. The Labour leadership finally adopting the policy set out at Conference of seeking a second referendum, now that a general election is not a viable means of stopping Brexit, came with all the keenness of toddler being encouraged to eat spinach. Even now, Corbyn is happy to mix notional support for a referendum with ‘other solutions’ being on the table.
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I don't think Labour is serious about holding one, yet alone 'winning' it.
IMO a short extension, up until June, could only happen if the Treaty is fully ratified from the UK side before 29th March. Otherwise there's the risk of us still being in the EU on 1st July but not having held the MEP elections.
Same question as last time ? If so what if the people say leave again, just wasted 6 months and no further forward, still got a deal that's unacceptable.
I sense some people might like deal versus remain, but can you really give the British people a binary choice between something they've already rejected and something that went down to a historical defeat in parliament (presumably twice at this point) ?
Maybe a two question vote, leave / remain followed by if leave deal or no deal ?
Neither leader wants this and I suspect the public are weary of the whole thing, dragging it out for another 9 months seems unlikely
But I doubt there's a constituency in parliament for a No Deal option, since not many people favour No Deal and the people who do strongly oppose another vote.
But maybe you're right and TMay really does care enough about keeping up this pretence to blow up her own economy, in which case they might want to do 6 months and go from there.
And asking for another extension is only going to make matters worse. At what point are sufficient of the 27 going to say...... OK, let them go. Tell them the deal is stay properly or they're out on WTO terms?
And what do we do then?
Today PM Theresa May to mark the 30th anniversary of the start of Brexit negotiations announces a final three month extension and a new vote in her deal. “400th time is a charm” said the veteran PM and Nobel prize winner for can kicking.
The catch is that you need unanimity, so if you're doing 3-monthly extensions there's always the risk that one day Salvini or Orban will try to use the UK as a hostage in some unrelated dispute with the rest of the EU. I think this is a good reason to prefer a longer extension, unless you're the guy who plans to do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeiGLSy-1zU&list=RDxeiGLSy-1zU&index=1
We have a deal with the EU. Just stop fannying around and sign the bloody thing, Parliament. Then elect a PM who would have the wherewithall to get medieval on their asses - once we are on the outside. That way we can all start forgetting the sorry episode that was the Theresa May premiership....
"One other way to handle this might be that the EU make the extension conditional on the UK making preparations for the elections,"
That phrase … " ... the EU make the extension conditional on the UK making preparations for the elections,"
Obey your orders? that will go down well.
It seems that both sides lay out what the deal means and their responsibilities . But there won’t be a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism .
Not sure who enforces the JII . The key though is the AG changing his legal advice . If that happens I’d expect a lot of the rebels to fall into line but still how many will vote for the deal.
The only thing that will get the rebels in line is the real threat of a second EU ref . Currently there’s not the numbers for that .
I've heard rumblings from the EU that Macron will say non, rumours of concessions on Gibraltar, etc. What are the odds that May will come back from Europe and say "you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
"Labour has shifted from pretending to be Brexit to pretending to be Remain."
The leadership has, but they're focussed on winning power and nothing else. They have a chasm between the young metropolitan members and the Northern voters they're trying to keep on board.
A quantum superposition is only possible when it is not being analysed/measured.
Insulting the voters isn't always the best way to gain those votes.
If the UK is going to take the deal it would make sense to get on with it, but in practice that's up to the parliamentary brexit enthusiasts.
That said, even with the deal you end up doing the whole thing again two years down the line, so there aren't any good options.
""you told me to ask, I asked, but there will be no extension?"
That's exactly what she might say. It would be a more honest assessment than the pretend re-negotiation that Cameron claimed as a triumph.
I think it is fair to say GDPR is much misunderstood and from that point of view alone is a dreadful piece of legislation (not that the old law, which the Student Loan Company were forced to admit eventually they were routinely breaking because they did not understand it, was much better).
But it is also worth pointing out Formby was a very controversial appointment she has form for not having a clue what she's talking about when it comes to the law or her own party's complaints procedures (that bitch-slapping Mischon de Reya gave her remains a great example of a withering putdown to an overpromoted nobody). It's also hard to believe her claims about the amount of effort she puts into investigating complaints given the reality of how much information is fed back to the complainants.
In reality, this whole scenario could easily be about the fact Labour have a weak, incompetent possibly racist and undoubtedly lazy general secretary who hasn't the first clue what she's doing and is proving a bully to try to hide it, and Watson - who let's not forget is also a pretty nasty bully - doing his best to repair the damage. The key takeaway of that letter, for me, is that she saw Watson's actions as an attempt to force her out - for 'staff' read 'Jennie Formby.' Don't like Watson or rate him, but he's doing the right thing if he is.
FPT: F1: Ferrari down to 2.2 and Leclerc to 5.5 (from 2.5 or so and 6.5 respectively yesterday).
"in practice that's up to the parliamentary brexit enthusiasts"
Nothing to do with the 200-odd nay-sayers in Labour? Ah, you'll probably say, they're an opposition and have a duty to oppose.
It reminds me of the old excuse trotted out by professional footballers when the a colleague tumbles under an innocuous challenge in the penalty area. "He's was touched, he's entitled to go down."
I think that there is a majority in Parliament for such a move, there always has been despite the promises that they made when elected in 2017. The problem that they have is that majority does not include the current PM or, for that matter, the LOTO. This makes it very difficult to introduce, let alone pass, the necessary legislation.
If the Tiggers had doubled in size this last week and, critically, included another half dozen Tories, the government would have lost its notional majority and it may well have been that a more amenable PM might have been selected on a government of national unity basis. I don't see the current Tory party going down that route. Not only would it be utterly self destructive but the majority of remainers in Parliament does not include a majority in the Tory party.
The question is therefore whether this time May can get a majority for her deal. It's not going to be easy since the majority don't want to leave at all. Even if the ERG have a moment of clarity and vote for it May is likely to be short unless she gets more Labour support than she got the last time. Will the threat of a no deal Brexit be enough? I have my doubts but I also have my hopes.
"Do you think there are still Leave voters who can remember why they wanted to leave?"
I can't anymore, but it's now a matter of principle. The voting finger writes and having writ, should be complied with. All your tears (wit is in short supply) should not erase a single word.
People can be awkward when they're taken for fools.
The argument that 'we've changed our mind' would be more convincing were it not begun immediately after the referendum result was announced.
"Its been nearly seventeen seconds and it's already going wrong, just like I said ten seconds ago. We need another referendum."
The most plausible path to passing TMay's deal is to get nearly all Tories, then Labour leavers to make up for the missing DUP.
The Withdrawal Treaty is going to have to be formally ratified by the U.K. (not just a ‘meaningful vote’) such that we can no longer revoke A50:
EITHER
Before the date at which the formal campaign would need to begin for EU MEP elections to take place at the end of June.
OR
The last day the old EU Parliament sits that can ratify from their side, which is 23rd April.
Whichever comes first. Otherwise we need to hold the elections.
I think we’ve got a couple of weeks after 29th March if required, but it’s no more than that.
No one's mad keen on the deal. It's an amalgam of uncertainties without a definite end, and the only to get it through would be to make it the least of the evils. As you point out, the opposition will only vote for something already labelled with their stamp of approval.
Mrs May looks like a political bungler, but might eventually achieve what she wants. Think Frank Columbo without the deep thought.
The referendum would provide a way to either override Parliament to enact the given Deal, or democratically withdraw the earlier instruction.
However, Sky reporting just now that Barnier has confirmed movement in their position to accommodate UK issues on the backstop and that really is the key
Interesting to see if this is a turning point
The problem for a ref is what the question might be . The fairest way is to have a two stage process .
So leave without a WA .
Leave with Mays deal.
Remain .
Top two go into a run off . But the problem here is no sensible government should really be putting no deal as an option .
Not sure that is how the Cult will see him.
Watson is trying to address serious issues and clearly has formed a group within labour that at present may have stopped further defections to TIG
I have no love for Watson but it shows how far labour have fallen when he looks the reasonable one.
Corbyn and his group are toxic
Labour is predominantly a Remain party (those dogmatically against are Kate Hoey and... then I'm struggling to think of names already), but has a fair number of seats and voters who are Leavers, so we don't want to be super-champions of Remain like the LibDems. In addition, while Corbyn is mildly pro-Remain (yes, lots of you don't believe it, but bear with me), he doesn't feel strongly and really wants the agenda to move on. So what Labour really wants is either (a) to own (by forcing through a Commons vote) a Brexit that most Remainers feel isn't too bad (customs union etc.) or (b) to bring about an election or (c) to have a referendum which we aren't given the sole blame for. (a) and (b) haven't worked, so we've moved on to (c).
Now I agree with nico, who said here the other day that Labour was and is absolutely crap at putting this across - it needs fanfare and press conferences and campaign materials, not a mumble here and an amendment there. It is, however, both the policy adopted by Conference and consistent with everything that the leadership has said since.
Why does it matter for political watchers and punters whether this is right? Because if it is, then you can assume that Labour will want not only the end but the means, such as extension to A50 (and IMO the EU will be up for it too, if they see Remain on the potential ballot). On past form we won't want to shout about it - it will take the form of obscure amendments and votes as necessary. But if enough Tories want a referendum, it will happen.
BTW, ydoethur's post earlier should probably be gently edited by moderators, as one sentence in it could get Mike into trouble.
The Brexiteers are making, on the most part, the sort of noises that suggest they might hold their nose and go for it to avoid a delay. Even the DUP are sounding less strident. They know if they take it past the next vote loss they lose control of the process and possibly lose Brexit altogether. Next week very much feels like crunch time. I am coming round to the view that the deal might just squeak through at the next MV. Of course that depends on Cox coming up with his magic wording... but the fact they are proposing wording at all suggests the sort of slight movement which might just, in light of the current atmosphere, unlock it.
Personally my country voted pretty overwhelmingly for one outcome and was ignored, so I'm not consumed with any great enthusiasm for another referendum. I've no reason to think the result wouldn't be even more overwhelming second time around, and we would be similarly ignored regardless of how much louder we shouted from the boot that we're locked in. However with the selfless benevolence that we Scots are noted for showing towards our larger neighbour, I don't see why when the facts change, voters shouldn't at least be given the chance to consider whether their minds have changed.
All the major decisions are still to be taken and fought over.
Timothy said that May's heart was never in it it has all been about damage limitation and I think for once she was right. It's been about making the best of a bad job since day one
If there's a referendum (a big "if",) then it'll almost certainly be May's WA versus Remain in a straight fight. Like practically everything else in politics at the moment, I'd not like to have to guess which way that would go.
It has already started this morning.
Pray for me.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/is-the-anti-tax-avoidance-directive-the-reason-the-rich-want-out-of-eu-1-5669763
Labour's governing bodies are in the grip of the loons. Anything they organise is liable to be a total sham.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Danish_general_election
In Germany, meanwhile, the social democrats have staged a modest recovery, and are now contesting 2nd place with the Greens again. The Green performance remains spectacular (doubled over the last election) but is no longer quite so stratospheric. The Christian Democrats and anti-immigrant AfD are more or less stable.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
That's sort of why we're in the problem to start with. One of the rejected options needs to be taken, Parliament can't decide, so the people have to.
On the tiggers, Watson being in near open war with a proxy firm Corbyn is a high stakes game but I would think prevents any defections for now. Someone who had not already left but was unhappy wont want to undercut someone they see actually fighting for the party as they want it to be. So for now even Corbyn failing to do what they want wont cause them to jump.
The risk is surely that if he fails theres a lot more people who may see no options left.