The party was supposed to form last week, but the chaos in Parliament caused a delay.
It must certainly happen before the end of the month.
I understand around a dozen Labour MPs, and a handful of Tories, are going to break away and form some kind of arrangement with the Lib Dems.
I am not sure what the strategy is. I can’t see it affecting Brexit votes.
One of the reasons the SDP failed to achieve an immediate breakthrough was that while Conservative members, activists and some Councillors defected, there was only one MP. Had twenty Conservative MPs gone along with the Labour MPs it might have been a very different story.
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Well said!
These extreme headbangers believe they are the centre. That viewing stopping Brexit to be a "sacred duty" is in the centre.
Considering 52% voted to Leave and most of the 48% have other top priorities than stopping Brexit, these folk are no less extreme than UKIP. They aren't center.
That is just weird. The Yellow Vests in Paris seem to have been infiltrated by a bizarre cocktail of hard leftists, hard rightists, and outright Islamists - who share anti-Semitic views? - not at all the stolid provincial movement I saw in Cognac/Bordeaux in December.
I expect support for them to fall away quite quickly now. Macron has survived, though he is significantly weakened and diminished.
Yes the Yellow Vests are now increasingly being infiltrated by supporters of Le Pen's National Rally it seems
But also Islamist radicals, judging by the latest videos, and shouts about Palestine, etc
Having just come back from Israel and the West Bank and Palestinian Authority myself I think you can support the right of Palestinians to have their own state without being an Islamist Radical just as you can support the right of Israel to exist without supporting provocative expansion of Israeli settlements into Palestinian lands.
Oh, I totally agree.
My point is completely different: watch the latest vids of Yellow Vest riots and you can see lots of Muslim kids, some wearing keffiyehs, hurling rocks, and anti-Semitic abuse. There's one such in that latest vid.
It's a long long way from the rural and small town protestors, manning roundabouts, complaining about fuel taxes, where the Gilets Jaune began.
France will recoil from this. The protest is doomed.
Certainly the more extremist elements have taken over and the Gilets Jaune are now driven by the far right in provincial France and Islamists in the banlieues while it looks like Macron has recaptured the mainstream
That is just weird. The Yellow Vests in Paris seem to have been infiltrated by a bizarre cocktail of hard leftists, hard rightists, and outright Islamists - who share anti-Semitic views? - not at all the stolid provincial movement I saw in Cognac/Bordeaux in December.
I expect support for them to fall away quite quickly now. Macron has survived, though he is significantly weakened and diminished.
Two people have had their hands blown off by grenades during the yellow vest protests in recent weeks. Horrible.
The party was supposed to form last week, but the chaos in Parliament caused a delay.
It must certainly happen before the end of the month.
I understand around a dozen Labour MPs, and a handful of Tories, are going to break away and form some kind of arrangement with the Lib Dems.
I am not sure what the strategy is. I can’t see it affecting Brexit votes.
One of the reasons the SDP failed to achieve an immediate breakthrough was that while Conservative members, activists and some Councillors defected, there was only one MP. Had twenty Conservative MPs gone along with the Labour MPs it might have been a very different story.
For a centre party to really prosper it needs the Corbynistas to retain the leadership of Labour and the ERG to capture the leadership of the Tories once May goes with Boris or even better Rees-Mogg becoming Tory leader.
Plus remember the SDP reached 50.5% in one Gallup poll in December 1981 with Thatcher's Tories and Foot's Labour both on 23% and though it fell back it still got 25% in 1983 which was more than the LDs ever managed even under Charles Kennedy or in 2010
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Yep. Most discussions of a breakaway party so far have it as virulently anti-Brexit, a position that’s not going to attract much support outside London and a few university towns.
As @SeanT suggests, the only breakaway that would make a real difference is one with 150 Lab MPs, that becomes the Official Opposition.
That is just weird. The Yellow Vests in Paris seem to have been infiltrated by a bizarre cocktail of hard leftists, hard rightists, and outright Islamists - who share anti-Semitic views? - not at all the stolid provincial movement I saw in Cognac/Bordeaux in December.
I expect support for them to fall away quite quickly now. Macron has survived, though he is significantly weakened and diminished.
Two people have had their hands blown off by grenades during the yellow vest protests in recent weeks. Horrible.
It is difficult to know how to estimate the scale of unrest represented by the Gilet Jaune.
2011 London Riots x 10?
Part of it seems to be mutating into an alt right paramilitary movement.
Hannan is entirely right. The EU are our adversaries now.
No they are not. They are our trading partners and near neighbours with whom we have a great deal in common and have common interests. We don't agree about everything but we do agree about a lot of things. This sort of inflammatory rubbish is not helpful, constructive or, frankly, completely sane.
Name one other trading partner or neighbour trying to subjugate us into accepting their laws and regulations in perpetuity with no unilateral recourse to exit?
The backstop is an unprecedented hostile abomination. We had a right to exit the EU - all of it - giving 2 years notice but may never accept their regulations without their permission? That is the hostile actions of an adversary.
If the EU wants to drop the backstop and negotiate as equals and partners then nothing would make me happier to call them our friends. Until then though ...
Lmao ! You seemed to have missed a glaring fact ! The EU and UK are not equals , a market of 450 million versus 65 million .
And seriously what do you think will happen when the UK goes with its begging bowl to Trump ?
Japan also has already said it wants more concessions out of the UK because it’s no longer part of a big block.
Stop whining about the EU and all this hysteria about being subjugated . Start taking responsibility for your vote . The EU will look after it’s own interests , just as the UK would have supported its position if another member had left and the UK was still in.
That's fine the UK can look after its interests and we can look after ours. And when we have diametrically opposed interests you know what that makes us?
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Yep. Most discussions of a breakaway party so far have it as virulently anti-Brexit, a position that’s not going to attract much support outside London and a few university towns.
As @SeanT suggests, the only breakaway that would make a real difference is one with 150 Lab MPs, that becomes the Official Opposition.
Polls have suggested for some time that 55% of the population are against Brexit, so it is hardly about “London and a few university towns”. You are utterly out of touch.
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Yep. Most discussions of a breakaway party so far have it as virulently anti-Brexit, a position that’s not going to attract much support outside London and a few university towns.
As @SeanT suggests, the only breakaway that would make a real difference is one with 150 Lab MPs, that becomes the Official Opposition.
Polls have suggested for some time that 55% of the population are against Brexit, so it is hardly about “London and a few university towns”. You are utterly out of touch.
They may hypothetically be against it when present a binary poll with no other options.
How many are so virulently opposed they'll switch parties based solely on this and nothing else?
And why haven't they already gone to the Lib Dems?
Can hardly blame her if she does. Hopefully the other parties in Wavertree would stand aside and campaign for her as an independent.
Her tweet also provoked this brilliant response, which appears to be a Labourite anti-Semite angrily and anti-Semitically attacking a Jewish Labour MP complaining about anti-Semitism in Labour
Labour really are diseased. Their membership is the leftwing equivalent of the Daily Mail's commenters.
Jeez, who are these people? If I were Ms Berger, I’d walk, and do it in the most damaging way possible. Spend a couple of years in the Commons as an Indy, making a speech every day about how racist the Labour Party has become, while raising money and campaigning hard in her constituency for re-election.
Liverpool Wavertree is Labour
Berger has no chance of winning as a Non Labour Candidate
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Yep. Most discussions of a breakaway party so far have it as virulently anti-Brexit, a position that’s not going to attract much support outside London and a few university towns.
As @SeanT suggests, the only breakaway that would make a real difference is one with 150 Lab MPs, that becomes the Official Opposition.
Polls have suggested for some time that 55% of the population are against Brexit, so it is hardly about “London and a few university towns”. You are utterly out of touch.
Sure, the question of Brexit is 50/50 among the population, but those who would support a party which appears to have no values except opposing the result of the referendum is likely no more than about 15%. A 15% that is massively over-represented among the media, on Twitter and in London.
For a centre party to really prosper it needs the Corbynistas to retain the leadership of Labour and the ERG to capture the leadership of the Tories once May goes with Boris or even better Rees-Mogg becoming Tory leader.
Plus remember the SDP reached 50.5% in one Gallup poll in December 1981 with Thatcher's Tories and Foot's Labour both on 23% and though it fell back it still got 25% in 1983 which was more than the LDs ever managed even under Charles Kennedy or in 2010
That 25-26% provided many fewer seats under a Conservative landslide than the 17% achieved in 1997 under a Labour landslide. That nuance has perhaps narrowed a faction - I put CON 40, LAB 30 LD 20 into Baxter and then CON 30 LAB 40 LD 20 and the difference in LD seats was only six.
Nonetheless, in seat terms, a new party is more likely to prosper taking seats off Conservatives and winning Conservative seats. Reducing Stephen Timms' majority from 40,000 to 20,000 might look good in terms of vote numbers but in terms of seats, not so much.
Can hardly blame her if she does. Hopefully the other parties in Wavertree would stand aside and campaign for her as an independent.
Her tweet also provoked this brilliant response, which appears to be a Labourite anti-Semite angrily and anti-Semitically attacking a Jewish Labour MP complaining about anti-Semitism in Labour
Labour really are diseased. Their membership is the leftwing equivalent of the Daily Mail's commenters.
Jeez, who are these people? If I were Ms Berger, I’d walk, and do it in the most damaging way possible. Spend a couple of years in the Commons as an Indy, making a speech every day about how racist the Labour Party has become, while raising money and campaigning hard in her constituency for re-election.
Liverpool Wavertree is Labour
Berger has no chance of winning as a Non Labour Candidate
So was Tatton a safe Conservative seat in 1997.
A three year campaign for her re-election with the other parties standing aside has a pretty good chance of success.
A decision by the Crown Prosecution Service not to bring a prosecution after swastikas were left outside Paula Sherriff's office has been branded "disgraceful" by the Labour MP. The Dewsbury MP said foil swastikas were left at her constituency office on three occasions last summer.
For a centre party to really prosper it needs the Corbynistas to retain the leadership of Labour and the ERG to capture the leadership of the Tories once May goes with Boris or even better Rees-Mogg becoming Tory leader.
Plus remember the SDP reached 50.5% in one Gallup poll in December 1981 with Thatcher's Tories and Foot's Labour both on 23% and though it fell back it still got 25% in 1983 which was more than the LDs ever managed even under Charles Kennedy or in 2010
That 25-26% provided many fewer seats under a Conservative landslide than the 17% achieved in 1997 under a Labour landslide. That nuance has perhaps narrowed a faction - I put CON 40, LAB 30 LD 20 into Baxter and then CON 30 LAB 40 LD 20 and the difference in LD seats was only six.
Nonetheless, in seat terms, a new party is more likely to prosper taking seats off Conservatives and winning Conservative seats. Reducing Stephen Timms' majority from 40,000 to 20,000 might look good in terms of vote numbers but in terms of seats, not so much.
In the 1983 election the SDP did win former Tory seats like Glasgow Hillhead as well as new seats like Woolwich and Stockton South and Ross, Cromarty and Skye but it also won some former Labour seats too like Caithness and Sutherland and Plymouth Devenport. To some extent the Liberals had more success in winning in Tory areas while the SDP did better in Labour areas and in new seats
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Yep. Most discussions of a breakaway party so far have it as virulently anti-Brexit, a position that’s not going to attract much support outside London and a few university towns. .
I'm sure it would attract a bit more than that, but there will be more to life than Brexit, and virulently being against it cannot sustain any entity, it's one reason the LDs are so moribund. All they care about is preventing Brexit (yes, they have other policies, but none that define them like opposition to Brexit) and it isn't seeing dramatic gains for them.
Type in Nissan and X-trail in the fields and look at the rating for the 2017 model. Stated as being EURO6 compliant but the real world testing done by this firm has it rated as not matching any EURO emissions standard not even the standards from the early 2000's. It produces 8-12 times the Nox levels that EURO6 requires. Word on the street is that they decided they had no chance of reaching that standard required. Couple that with all the politicians deciding that diesel cars are evil and banning them from cities and stating quite openly that no diesels will be sold at certain future dates and the rapid take up of hybrids and EV's then it was not a hard decision to cancel.
PS is you look at the Renaults in that link and the diesels you can see Renault have a real big problem with the new testing regime.
Nah. I remember similar polls about the Lib Dems 15 years ago.
When people say "centre party" they assume their views are in the centre because they believe most others share them, so it's support (internationalist, pro immigration, pro EU, pro business and soft Left) would be grossly overestimated to reality.
It would be more realistic to the current scenario if you talked about the most likely defectors, so Soubry, Chuka etc., inclusion of Lib Dems (or not maybe 2 different questions possibly), peoples vote policy (which seems main cause of breakaway) and then ask for potential support.
I suspect it wouldn't be 59% anymore before you even get into all the other policies and who the leader is which could put more people off again.
Hannan is entirely right. The EU are our adversaries now.
No they are not. They are our trading partners and near neighbours with whom we have a great deal in common and have common interests. We don't agree about everything but we do agree about a lot of things. This sort of inflammatory rubbish is not helpful, constructive or, frankly, completely sane.
Nothing Hannan says there is any worse, in terms of ongoing friendship, than Tusk's fuckwitted, ridiculous and inflammatory "there is a special circle in Hell for Brexiteers" remarks. And its not even in the same dimension of nuttiness as Tusk's stated opinion, before the referendum, that Brexit would "end western political civilisation".
Brexit is an unedifying spectacle, and all sides are doing their bit to make it so.
It was one of the most (if not the most) stupid thing I've heard an EU leader ever say and may yet drive us to No Deal.
I will raise you Juncker. May trying to get here deal through The House use the argument it is my deal or no deal and no deal is really bad. Up pops Juncker at a presser and says that in the case of no deal the EU would put in place mini deals to mitigate. ERG immediate come up with managed no deal strategy or clean break strategy and May is sunk in the water.
I thought the EU wanted this WDA to get approved, could have fooled me.
I had faith in the WDA but recent weeks have given me cause to doubt the sincerity of the EU’s word on superseding the backstop. They probably feel the same way about us.
A political solution is needed that restores the faith of all sides. The next few weeks will be crucial.
Yes - the hard border will be at Calais and Cherbourg in the event of "No Deal". But it won't come to that.
ROI politicians may regret having rather over-played their hand. (It was so blindingly obvious that they'd do so, and so blindingly obvious that it was totally against their own interests.)
Yes - the hard border will be at Calais and Cherbourg in the event of "No Deal". But it won't come to that.
ROI politicians may regret having rather over-played their hand. (It was so blindingly obvious that they'd do so, and so blindingly obvious that it was totally against their own interests.)
Even if that is true I'm not sure how it helps anyone - people have committed themselves too far to roll back now.
Yes - the hard border will be at Calais and Cherbourg in the event of "No Deal". But it won't come to that.
ROI politicians may regret having rather over-played their hand. (It was so blindingly obvious that they'd do so, and so blindingly obvious that it was totally against their own interests.)
Even if that is true I'm not sure how it helps anyone - people have committed themselves too far to roll back now.
A fudge that kicks the can to the end of a transition rather than demanding a permanent backstop is agreed now will avoid an immediate crisis and permit cooler heads to start talking during the transition.
Hannan is entirely right. The EU are our adversaries now.
No they are not. They are our trading partners and near neighbours with whom we have a great deal in common and have common interests. We don't agree about everything but we do agree about a lot of things. This sort of inflammatory rubbish is not helpful, constructive or, frankly, completely sane.
Nothing Hannan says there is any worse, in terms of ongoing friendship, than Tusk's fuckwitted, ridiculous and inflammatory "there is a special circle in Hell for Brexiteers" remarks. And its not even in the same dimension of nuttiness as Tusk's stated opinion, before the referendum, that Brexit would "end western political civilisation".
Brexit is an unedifying spectacle, and all sides are doing their bit to make it so.
It was one of the most (if not the most) stupid thing I've heard an EU leader ever say and may yet drive us to No Deal.
I will raise you Juncker. May trying to get here deal through The House use the argument it is my deal or no deal and no deal is really bad. Up pops Juncker at a presser and says that in the case of no deal the EU would put in place mini deals to mitigate. ERG immediate come up with managed no deal strategy or clean break strategy and May is sunk in the water.
I thought the EU wanted this WDA to get approved, could have fooled me.
I had faith in the WDA but recent weeks have given me cause to doubt the sincerity of the EU’s word on superseding the backstop. They probably feel the same way about us.
A political solution is needed that restores the faith of all sides. The next few weeks will be crucial.
You don't just need to restore faith of all sides.
You also need all sides to believe that the other sides are sufficiently competent.
Hannan is entirely right. The EU are our adversaries now.
IIRC Hannan (and every other UK MEP) will receive a payoff of 150K Euros on departure. If he feels that strongly about it he could always turn it down or give it to charity.
If the Irish realise they've been played and will be betrayed if there's no deal then the possibility of some strange bedfellows becomes real.
Malthouse unified the Tories by bringing two opposite wings together leaving everyone who refused the compromise look absurd.
If a no deal crash out and Ireland being ostracized becomes imminent and an unlikely compromise is reached and jointly announced between say Varadkar, Coveney, Foster and Baker then it would be almost impossible for anyone else to object.
Yes - the hard border will be at Calais and Cherbourg in the event of "No Deal". But it won't come to that.
ROI politicians may regret having rather over-played their hand. (It was so blindingly obvious that they'd do so, and so blindingly obvious that it was totally against their own interests.)
Even if that is true I'm not sure how it helps anyone - people have committed themselves too far to roll back now.
Doesn't help anyone.
Other obvious mistakes have been made too. I offer you David Davis. Doesn't help at all that we all know he shouldn't run a sweet-shop, and that it was clear that he couldn't negotiate his way out of a paper bag.
I think the choice on the EU side for negotiators may in hindsight have been a mistake, and my suspicion is that it may have been a clear mistake before they were chosen - it seems that way to me, but I don't really know enough to reach a conclusion there.
I hope that some deal will emerge and rescue us all from these mistakes. (Easy to criticise of course, and those involved should they manage to conjure rabbits out of hats will deserve credit)
Yes - the hard border will be at Calais and Cherbourg in the event of "No Deal". But it won't come to that.
ROI politicians may regret having rather over-played their hand. (It was so blindingly obvious that they'd do so, and so blindingly obvious that it was totally against their own interests.)
Even if that is true I'm not sure how it helps anyone - people have committed themselves too far to roll back now.
A fudge that kicks the can to the end of a transition rather than demanding a permanent backstop is agreed now will avoid an immediate crisis and permit cooler heads to start talking during the transition.
We'd hope for that, but what actual signs are there beyond rumour?
Yes - the hard border will be at Calais and Cherbourg in the event of "No Deal". But it won't come to that.
ROI politicians may regret having rather over-played their hand. (It was so blindingly obvious that they'd do so, and so blindingly obvious that it was totally against their own interests.)
Even if that is true I'm not sure how it helps anyone - people have committed themselves too far to roll back now.
A fudge that kicks the can to the end of a transition rather than demanding a permanent backstop is agreed now will avoid an immediate crisis and permit cooler heads to start talking during the transition.
We'd hope for that, but what actual signs are there beyond rumour?
No signs. It just makes sense to me which is why I've always thought it will be the end point. It is the only logical solution.
Nah. I remember similar polls about the Lib Dems 15 years ago.
When people say "centre party" they assume their views are in the centre because they believe most others share them, so it's support (internationalist, pro immigration, pro EU, pro business and soft Left) would be grossly overestimated to reality.
It would be more realistic to the current scenario if you talked about the most likely defectors, so Soubry, Chuka etc., inclusion of Lib Dems (or not maybe 2 different questions possibly), peoples vote policy (which seems main cause of breakaway) and then ask for potential support.
I suspect it wouldn't be 59% anymore before you even get into all the other policies and who the leader is which could put more people off again.
I’d expect a maximum ceiling of about 25%.
Macron and En Marche of course got 24% in the 2017 French presidential election first round (32% in the legislative election first round) and were helped by the right being divided between Les Republicains and Front National.
In the 1983 election the SDP did win former Tory seats like Glasgow Hillhead as well as new seats like Woolwich and Stockton South and Ross, Cromarty and Skye but it also won some former Labour seats too like Caithness and Sutherland and Plymouth Devenport. To some extent the Liberals had more success in winning in Tory areas while the SDP did better in Labour areas and in new seats
Roy Jenkins, a not inconsiderable political figure even by 1983, had won the Hillhead seat in early 1982. John Cartwright and Ian Wrigglesworth were very capable local MPs who, I believe, took most of their membership and activists with them into the SDP.
The Ross, Cromarty & Skye seat won by Charles Kennedy was a new seat and I don't know whether the transfer of wards from the old Inverness constituency of Russell Johnston helped.
Given most of the SDP MPs were ex-Labour I'm not surprised the Party did better in Labour seats while such Liberal advances as there were took place in seats of traditional local strength such as Yeovil where the long-standing Conservative John Peyton stood down and one Paddy Ashdown was able to benefit.
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
Anyone else old enough to remember when conservatives used to complain that left wingers were trying to overturn democracy by protesting rather than using the ballot box? #YellowVests
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
That depends, I live in a seat with a Tory MP but a ward with 2/3 LD district councillors, at local elections issues like local plans and mending potholes come to the forefront and the LDs are masters at exploiting them
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
In the 1983 election the SDP did win former Tory seats like Glasgow Hillhead as well as new seats like Woolwich and Stockton South and Ross, Cromarty and Skye but it also won some former Labour seats too like Caithness and Sutherland and Plymouth Devenport. To some extent the Liberals had more success in winning in Tory areas while the SDP did better in Labour areas and in new seats
Roy Jenkins, a not inconsiderable political figure even by 1983, had won the Hillhead seat in early 1982. John Cartwright and Ian Wrigglesworth were very capable local MPs who, I believe, took most of their membership and activists with them into the SDP.
The Ross, Cromarty & Skye seat won by Charles Kennedy was a new seat and I don't know whether the transfer of wards from the old Inverness constituency of Russell Johnston helped.
Given most of the SDP MPs were ex-Labour I'm not surprised the Party did better in Labour seats while such Liberal advances as there were took place in seats of traditional local strength such as Yeovil where the long-standing Conservative John Peyton stood down and one Paddy Ashdown was able to benefit.
An SDP2 and LD alliance would similarly offer a new centrist party the best chance of targeting Labour and Tory seats.
Ironically I think a centrist party would do best in seats (albeit not voteshare) in a BINO or revoke Brexit scenario with Corbyn still Labour leader where a new Farage/UKIP party would take votes from the Tories than with No Deal where the right would be more united as was the case when the right was united behind Thatcher's Tories in 1983
Can hardly blame her if she does. Hopefully the other parties in Wavertree would stand aside and campaign for her as an independent.
Her tweet also provoked this brilliant response, which appears to be a Labourite anti-Semite angrily and anti-Semitically attacking a Jewish Labour MP complaining about anti-Semitism in Labour
Labour really are diseased. Their membership is the leftwing equivalent of the Daily Mail's commenters.
Jeez, who are these people? If I were Ms Berger, I’d walk, and do it in the most damaging way possible. Spend a couple of years in the Commons as an Indy, making a speech every day about how racist the Labour Party has become, while raising money and campaigning hard in her constituency for re-election.
Scroll (if you can bear it) through the many angry replies under her tweet, and the outright, reeking halitosis of Labour's anti-Semitism is impossible to ignore. Some of it is coded, some of it is blatant (as here), but Jesus, there's a lot of it. Depressing.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
A centre party substantially damages Labour and helps the Conservatives significantly under FPTP. Tory majoities whilst polling in the mid thirties, for PB Tories what's not to like?
Labour unity under Corbyn looks a lot more fragile than Tory unity under Mrs May or any other would-be leader.
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
"It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time"
Interesting phrasing. Suggests, perhaps, you think it will happen.
No obvious Jenkins or Williams figures. (Not sure they want a Owen-like figure).
We could have 5 or 6 main parties at the next GE, although I'd bet we'll just have the usual two, with the odd 'that's him over there' party in the mix.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
Name one other trading partner or neighbour trying to subjugate us into accepting their laws and regulations in perpetuity with no unilateral recourse to exit?
The glib answer is "all of them". Except possibly Canada, Australia and New Zealand. But if you want a specific example, China's attempt to prevent us sailing thru international waters by denying trade agreements. Or Fiji denying us access to a trade agreement because of human rights legislation. Or Ireland operating for sixty-odd years with a constitution that claimed Northern Ireland as its territory, a stance that only changed post-GFA when it gained (very) limited governance.
(Incidentally, the Geneva Convention is governed by the UN, which nearly meets your criteria)
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
So its looking like two blocs, neither of which can quite get a majority.
PSOE, Podemos and the Catalonian Left are about 170 seats. PP, Citizens and Vox are about 165 seats so it comes down to 2-3 Catalonian Liberals and 8-10 "Others" to hold the balance.
Oddly enough, the two big blocs are about the same size as they were in 2016. On the Left, PSOE have advanced to the detriment of Podemos with ERC also moving forward a little. On the Right, PP has lost a lot of ground to VOX and to a lesser extent Citizens.
Mr. Observer, any thoughts on how the final result will end up going? Not au fait with Spanish politics.
It’s really hard to call. A very fragile right wing coalition looks most likely, followed by a big attack on Catalan autonomy and a significant ratcheting up of tensions. But PSOE is looking stronger than I had anticipated, so that may not be as inevitable as it had seemed. Here’s another poll telling a similar story:
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
That depends, I live in a seat with a Tory MP but a ward with 2/3 LD district councillors, at local elections issues like local plans and mending potholes come to the forefront and the LDs are masters at exploiting them
I agree with HYUFD and disagree with Nick on this. Can I ask if the LDs are targeting the seat? I assume not. If they were you would get lots of leaflets on local issues from the LDs attempting to convert people from their default choice to (as they would argue) the local candidate to get things done for you. It is a strategy that works for them.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
Local elections are student union elections for seniors.
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
That depends, I live in a seat with a Tory MP but a ward with 2/3 LD district councillors, at local elections issues like local plans and mending potholes come to the forefront and the LDs are masters at exploiting them
I agree with HYUFD and disagree with Nick on this. Can I ask if the LDs are targeting the seat? I assume not. If they were you would get lots of leaflets on local issues from the LDs attempting to convert people from their default choice to (as they would argue) the local candidate to get things done for you. It is a strategy that works for them.
Yes, if Nick starts to find his letterbox filled up with the latest LD Focus he may change his mind.
LDs campaign at local elections in their target wards much as they do at parliamentary by elections
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
So its looking like two blocs, neither of which can quite get a majority.
PSOE, Podemos and the Catalonian Left are about 170 seats. PP, Citizens and Vox are about 165 seats so it comes down to 2-3 Catalonian Liberals and 8-10 "Others" to hold the balance.
Oddly enough, the two big blocs are about the same size as they were in 2016. On the Left, PSOE have advanced to the detriment of Podemos with ERC also moving forward a little. On the Right, PP has lost a lot of ground to VOX and to a lesser extent Citizens.
The others are mainly Basque parties. My guess is they’d go with PSOE rather than PP/Vox
Funny thing about a new centre party - it might find few voters there. On the issue of the day (B..) the distributions of voters' preferences on both the left and the right are bimodal - and this is the very reason for the impasse in Parliament. A centre party aiming for the median voter is aiming for a chimera and will have almost nothing to say to anyone.
I'm pretty sure that 59% will have WILDLY different ideas about what a "centre-ground" party means. E.g an enthusiastically pro-EU platform will not be what a lot of people would consider "centre" in the current climate.
Yep. Most discussions of a breakaway party so far have it as virulently anti-Brexit, a position that’s not going to attract much support outside London and a few university towns. .
I'm sure it would attract a bit more than that, but there will be more to life than Brexit, and virulently being against it cannot sustain any entity, it's one reason the LDs are so moribund. All they care about is preventing Brexit (yes, they have other policies, but none that define them like opposition to Brexit) and it isn't seeing dramatic gains for them.
Would it though? It's an extreme, not centrist, position which as other have said may be supported by only up to 25% of the electorate; but they're fishing in the same pool as the LDs and the Greens, not to mention there will be plenty of metropolitan hardline remainers tribally loyal to a hard left Labour.
Funny thing about a new centre party - it might find few voters there. On the issue of the day (B..) the distributions of voters' preferences on both the left and the right are bimodal - and this is the very reason for the impasse in Parliament. A centre party aiming for the median voter is aiming for a chimera and will have almost nothing to say to anyone.
Well, but the assumed centre party would be anything but moderate and centrist on Brexit - it would take up the extreme Remainer ground left vacant by Tories and Labour.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
So its looking like two blocs, neither of which can quite get a majority.
PSOE, Podemos and the Catalonian Left are about 170 seats. PP, Citizens and Vox are about 165 seats so it comes down to 2-3 Catalonian Liberals and 8-10 "Others" to hold the balance.
Oddly enough, the two big blocs are about the same size as they were in 2016. On the Left, PSOE have advanced to the detriment of Podemos with ERC also moving forward a little. On the Right, PP has lost a lot of ground to VOX and to a lesser extent Citizens.
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
would consider is not the same as would vote for.
"Would consider" means nothing.
Sort of.
Conversely 41% wouldn't even consider voting for a center party is quite astounding.
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
This is the poll I mentioned a couple of days ago - it looked set up to create a story, as it first raised issues of extremism in Tories and Labour, then asked whether we thought both parties were extreme, and then asked if we'd consider voting for a non-extreme party. While all the questions were fair enough, the sequencing had a clear leading effect, and I wouldn't count on those 59% or anything like it as genuine potential.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
Funny thing about a new centre party - it might find few voters there. On the issue of the day (B..) the distributions of voters' preferences on both the left and the right are bimodal - and this is the very reason for the impasse in Parliament. A centre party aiming for the median voter is aiming for a chimera and will have almost nothing to say to anyone.
Well, but the assumed centre party would be anything but moderate and centrist on Brexit - it would take up the extreme Remainer ground left vacant by Tories and Labour.
Would it do any better with voters than the Lib Dems?
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
I note in Andalusia PP, Citizens and VOX formed a Government but PSOE had run the province for 32 years and as we often see, after a long period of one party dominance, all the other parties can find common cause to get them out.
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
Are Citizens LDs? I thought they were Catalonians who strongly supported remaining in Spain over other considerations.
More comparable to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories than Nick Clegg's Lib Dems.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
I note in Andalusia PP, Citizens and VOX formed a Government but PSOE had run the province for 32 years and as we often see, after a long period of one party dominance, all the other parties can find common cause to get them out.
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
It seems to me that Vox are like the Swedish Democrats or AfD but that wouldn't stop PP working with them.
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful businessmen, sportsmen (Will Carling), journalists (David Dimbleby), even PMs (Douglas-Home and Baldwin) got Oxbridge thirds.
You only really need an Oxbridge first if you want to be an Oxbridge don or a commercial barrister and working in a highly academic environment, otherwise those who also got fully involved in university societies, played sport, organised balls etc got the extra curricular skills they needed to get on
I agree with HYUFD and disagree with Nick on this. Can I ask if the LDs are targeting the seat? I assume not. If they were you would get lots of leaflets on local issues from the LDs attempting to convert people from their default choice to (as they would argue) the local candidate to get things done for you. It is a strategy that works for them.
We shall see! So far nobody appears to be targeting it except me, least of all the incumbents.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
Mr. Observer, any thoughts on how the final result will end up going? Not au fait with Spanish politics.
The polls last time flattered the smaller parties with both PSOE and PP doing better than predicted. I'm afraid they are not generally all that reliable except that there is unlikely to be one winner and Vox may do better than expected.
I agree with HYUFD and disagree with Nick on this. Can I ask if the LDs are targeting the seat? I assume not. If they were you would get lots of leaflets on local issues from the LDs attempting to convert people from their default choice to (as they would argue) the local candidate to get things done for you. It is a strategy that works for them.
We shall see! So far nobody appears to be targeting it except me, least of all the incumbents.
I don't know what that means Nick. Are they targeting the seat or not? If not you will of course see it as you describe. If they are targetting you will get loads of targeted Focuses on local issues and the 'wonderful' candidate.
What does 'We will see' mean? if they are not targetting 'we will see' has no meaning!
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful businessmen, sportsmen (Will Carling), journalists (David Dimbleby), even PMs (Douglas-Home and Baldwin) got Oxbridge thirds.
You only really need an Oxbridge first if you want to be an Oxbridge don or a commercial barrister and working in a highly academic environment, otherwise those who also got fully involved in university societies, played sport, organised balls etc got the extra curricular skills they needed to get on
The point I made last night - when I referred to the political examples you quote plus Jeremy Thorpe , Edward Boyle and Barbara Castle - was that the Oxbridge Third has largely disappeared. The 1999 article suggests the figure had dropped from circa 30% in 1960 to 5% . I assume the figure today is more like 3%.
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
I note in Andalusia PP, Citizens and VOX formed a Government but PSOE had run the province for 32 years and as we often see, after a long period of one party dominance, all the other parties can find common cause to get them out.
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
C's would prefer to work with the PP in a Spanish style Coalition similar to that we had here between the Tories and LDs from 2010 to 2015, however that is unlikely to have the numbers and add Vox (Spain's UKIP) to the mix and C's may prefer to deal with the PSOE
"It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time"
Interesting phrasing. Suggests, perhaps, you think it will happen.
No obvious Jenkins or Williams figures. (Not sure they want a Owen-like figure).
We could have 5 or 6 main parties at the next GE, although I'd bet we'll just have the usual two, with the odd 'that's him over there' party in the mix.
I imagine so - the non-denials lately have been pretty suggestive, although I've also seen it said that they were simply intended to push Corbyn into a 2nd referendum stance. The absence of an obvious leader is a snag, as you say - I'd guess people have vaguely heard of Umunna and Soubry, but not obvious that either of them would be seen as obvious PMs. I tend to agree with your prediction, but who knows about anything these days?
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/16/paris-louvre-will-not-show-worlds-expensive-painting-doubts/
These extreme headbangers believe they are the centre. That viewing stopping Brexit to be a "sacred duty" is in the centre.
Considering 52% voted to Leave and most of the 48% have other top priorities than stopping Brexit, these folk are no less extreme than UKIP. They aren't center.
Plus remember the SDP reached 50.5% in one Gallup poll in December 1981 with Thatcher's Tories and Foot's Labour both on 23% and though it fell back it still got 25% in 1983 which was more than the LDs ever managed even under Charles Kennedy or in 2010
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
As @SeanT suggests, the only breakaway that would make a real difference is one with 150 Lab MPs, that becomes the Official Opposition.
2011 London Riots x 10?
Part of it seems to be mutating into an alt right paramilitary movement.
Adversaries.
How many are so virulently opposed they'll switch parties based solely on this and nothing else?
And why haven't they already gone to the Lib Dems?
Berger has no chance of winning as a Non Labour Candidate
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-47264709
* Bruno Ganz, 77.
Nonetheless, in seat terms, a new party is more likely to prosper taking seats off Conservatives and winning Conservative seats. Reducing Stephen Timms' majority from 40,000 to 20,000 might look good in terms of vote numbers but in terms of seats, not so much.
A three year campaign for her re-election with the other parties standing aside has a pretty good chance of success.
The Dewsbury MP said foil swastikas were left at her constituency office on three occasions last summer.
Germany with Merkel and her mad immigration policies.
She brings even a harder far right to the fore.
RIP.
Yep. Varadkar has been played like a fiddle.
https://equaindex.com/equa-air-quality-index/
Type in Nissan and X-trail in the fields and look at the rating for the 2017 model. Stated as being EURO6 compliant but the real world testing done by this firm has it rated as not matching any EURO emissions standard not even the standards from the early 2000's. It produces 8-12 times the Nox levels that EURO6 requires. Word on the street is that they decided they had no chance of reaching that standard required.
Couple that with all the politicians deciding that diesel cars are evil and banning them from cities and stating quite openly that no diesels will be sold at certain future dates and the rapid take up of hybrids and EV's then it was not a hard decision to cancel.
PS is you look at the Renaults in that link and the diesels you can see Renault have a real big problem with the new testing regime.
A political solution is needed that restores the faith of all sides. The next few weeks will be crucial.
You also need all sides to believe that the other sides are sufficiently competent.
Malthouse unified the Tories by bringing two opposite wings together leaving everyone who refused the compromise look absurd.
If a no deal crash out and Ireland being ostracized becomes imminent and an unlikely compromise is reached and jointly announced between say Varadkar, Coveney, Foster and Baker then it would be almost impossible for anyone else to object.
Other obvious mistakes have been made too. I offer you David Davis. Doesn't help at all that we all know he shouldn't run a sweet-shop, and that it was clear that he couldn't negotiate his way out of a paper bag.
I think the choice on the EU side for negotiators may in hindsight have been a mistake, and my suspicion is that it may have been a clear mistake before they were chosen - it seems that way to me, but I don't really know enough to reach a conclusion there.
I hope that some deal will emerge and rescue us all from these mistakes. (Easy to criticise of course, and those involved should they manage to conjure rabbits out of hats will deserve credit)
The Ross, Cromarty & Skye seat won by Charles Kennedy was a new seat and I don't know whether the transfer of wards from the old Inverness constituency of Russell Johnston helped.
Given most of the SDP MPs were ex-Labour I'm not surprised the Party did better in Labour seats while such Liberal advances as there were took place in seats of traditional local strength such as Yeovil where the long-standing Conservative John Peyton stood down and one Paddy Ashdown was able to benefit.
It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time - the effect would be to fracture the fragile coalition that's formed to oppose No Deal, since it'd be much harder to vote with people who've just walked out on you. I'd have thought they'd pick a moment after that when the main prties were struggling again.
Incidentally, canvassed a couple of hundred people again today for my local by-election. Nobody mentioned either local issues or Brexit - everyone was simply either (a) tribally Tory or tribally Labour or (b) not interested in local politics. I think the "all politics is local" theory only applies if people are dissatisfied with the neighbourhood - in the absence of protest issues, people default to national preference.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1096823656741830656?s=21
Who are Vox?
Ironically I think a centrist party would do best in seats (albeit not voteshare) in a BINO or revoke Brexit scenario with Corbyn still Labour leader where a new Farage/UKIP party would take votes from the Tories than with No Deal where the right would be more united as was the case when the right was united behind Thatcher's Tories in 1983
Labour unity under Corbyn looks a lot more fragile than Tory unity under Mrs May or any other would-be leader.
Interesting phrasing. Suggests, perhaps, you think it will happen.
No obvious Jenkins or Williams figures. (Not sure they want a Owen-like figure).
We could have 5 or 6 main parties at the next GE, although I'd bet we'll just have the usual two, with the odd 'that's him over there' party in the mix.
(Incidentally, the Geneva Convention is governed by the UN, which nearly meets your criteria)
PSOE, Podemos and the Catalonian Left are about 170 seats. PP, Citizens and Vox are about 165 seats so it comes down to 2-3 Catalonian Liberals and 8-10 "Others" to hold the balance.
Oddly enough, the two big blocs are about the same size as they were in 2016. On the Left, PSOE have advanced to the detriment of Podemos with ERC also moving forward a little. On the Right, PP has lost a lot of ground to VOX and to a lesser extent Citizens.
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1096853872428093441?s=21
LDs campaign at local elections in their target wards much as they do at parliamentary by elections
On the issue of the day (B..) the distributions of voters' preferences on both the left and the right are bimodal - and this is the very reason for the impasse in Parliament. A centre party aiming for the median voter is aiming for a chimera and will have almost nothing to say to anyone.
Conversely 41% wouldn't even consider voting for a center party is quite astounding.
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle |
Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 |
|
The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
More comparable to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories than Nick Clegg's Lib Dems.
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I can't see anyone in Spain I could support.
You only really need an Oxbridge first if you want to be an Oxbridge don or a commercial barrister and working in a highly academic environment, otherwise those who also got fully involved in university societies, played sport, organised balls etc got the extra curricular skills they needed to get on
What does 'We will see' mean? if they are not targetting 'we will see' has no meaning!
Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Sunshine, moonlight, good times, Brexit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Spanish_general_election
Since then the party under Casado has moved further to the right due to the rise in support for Vox a far right nationalist party