First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
I note in Andalusia PP, Citizens and VOX formed a Government but PSOE had run the province for 32 years and as we often see, after a long period of one party dominance, all the other parties can find common cause to get them out.
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
Citizens have ruled out any coalition with Sanchez and PSOE because they are strongly opposed to Catalonian independence movement. At the moment a PP/C's coalition with tacit support from Vox is considered the most likely result but it is early days.
I agree with HYUFD and disagree with Nick on this. Can I ask if the LDs are targeting the seat? I assume not. If they were you would get lots of leaflets on local issues from the LDs attempting to convert people from their default choice to (as they would argue) the local candidate to get things done for you. It is a strategy that works for them.
We shall see! So far nobody appears to be targeting it except me, least of all the incumbents.
I don't know what that means Nick. Are they targeting the seat or not? If not you will of course see it as you describe. If they are targetting you will get loads of targeted Focuses on local issues and the 'wonderful' candidate.
What does 'We will see' mean? if they are not targetting 'we will see' has no meaning!
Sorry Nick - Did you edit because I replied when all I could see was 'We shall see'. Hence my comment which now looks stupid.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
I seriously doubt there are many people in this country who were on the fence about the Tories and then discovered they were hanging around with Spanish fascists and that was when they decided they were the nasty party.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
As I said, it is a little difficult to make direct comparisons. The one thing that is a marker for PP is support for the Church. The Catholic Church is, generally speaking, nice to refugees. Vox has appeared for those who don't want to be.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
Thank you Nick - very helpful. Have taken a photo so I can refer back. Age related memory me thinks
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
Are Citizens LDs? I thought they were Catalonians who strongly supported remaining in Spain over other considerations.
More comparable to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories than Nick Clegg's Lib Dems.
The Citizens are Orange Book LDs in UK terms, certainly very close to Clegg's LDs, Davidson is still a Tory even if a moderate one
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful businessmen, sportsmen (Will Carling), journalists (David Dimbleby), even PMs (Douglas-Home and Baldwin) got Oxbridge thirds.
You only really need an Oxbridge first if you want to be an Oxbridge don or a commercial barrister and working in a highly academic environment, otherwise those who also got fully involved in university societies, played sport, organised balls etc got the extra curricular skills they needed to get on
The point I made last night - when I referred to the political examples you quote plus Jeremy Thorpe , Edward Boyle and Barbara Castle - was that the Oxbridge Third has largely disappeared. The 1999 article suggests the figure had dropped from circa 30% in 1960 to 5% . I assume the figure today is more like 3%.
I would agree that most Oxbridge thirds would get 2.2s today but the point remains that most people even at Oxbridge do not get a 1st to get on
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
Funny thing about a new centre party - it might find few voters there. On the issue of the day (B..) the distributions of voters' preferences on both the left and the right are bimodal - and this is the very reason for the impasse in Parliament. A centre party aiming for the median voter is aiming for a chimera and will have almost nothing to say to anyone.
Well, but the assumed centre party would be anything but moderate and centrist on Brexit - it would take up the extreme Remainer ground left vacant by Tories and Labour.
Would it do any better with voters than the Lib Dems?
It might do given that it would not be shackled with the fiasco of student fees.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
You are deluded - the PP are no more extreme left than PSOE are extreme right.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
Silly comment
Just a bit of harmless trolling.
Fair enough. Just, I am not, and never will be, aligned to ERG or worse any fascist group
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
Franco was not to our taste but he was leader of Spain for almost 50 years and not as evil as the Nazis were even if a Fascist. I would place him closer to Peron than Hitler with Mussolini and Hirohito in between.
The PP have also produced Aznar, who as Spanish PM was one of the best European leaders of the last few decades (even Blair was mates with him)
Re: Spain it is worth noting that they operate a Party list system but it does not del;iver a proportionate result - the weightings appear to favour the big paries at the expense of the others so the polls can be misleading in this respect as well. Last time both Podemos and Ciudadanos got way fewer seats than the polls were suggesting and it seems that was partly due to both the electoral system as well as unreliable polling.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
You are being pedantic. I support the centre one nation conservative party and believe I have never, ever, been accused of having any sympathy for fascists. The idea disgusts me
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
You are being pedantic. I support the centre one nation conservative party and believe I have never, ever, been accused of having any sympathy for fascists. The idea disgusts me
I know you despise Fascists. Hopefully all PBers do.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
You are being pedantic. I support the centre one nation conservative party and believe I have never, ever, been accused of having any sympathy for fascists. The idea disgusts me
I know you despise Fascists. Hopefully all PBers do.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
You are being pedantic. I support the centre one nation conservative party and believe I have never, ever, been accused of having any sympathy for fascists. The idea disgusts me
I know you despise Fascists. Hopefully all PBers do.
Remember too the PP also includes the likes of the Christian Democratic People's Democratic Party which merged into it in 1989
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
I note in Andalusia PP, Citizens and VOX formed a Government but PSOE had run the province for 32 years and as we often see, after a long period of one party dominance, all the other parties can find common cause to get them out.
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
Citizens have ruled out any coalition with Sanchez and PSOE because they are strongly opposed to Catalonian independence movement. At the moment a PP/C's coalition with tacit support from Vox is considered the most likely result but it is early days.
Cs are polling much lower since they got into bed with PP and Vox. It seems as if the voters the party won over from PSOE might be going back. Cs may find themselves getting squeezed if they are not careful. The Andalusia pact and marching with Vox and PP against Sanchez last Sunday may not have been the smartest move. It’s clear now that a vote for Cs is a vote for PP/Vox.
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful businessmen, sportsmen (Will Carling), journalists (David Dimbleby), even PMs (Douglas-Home and Baldwin) got Oxbridge thirds.
You only really need an Oxbridge first if you want to be an Oxbridge don or a commercial barrister and working in a highly academic environment, otherwise those who also got fully involved in university societies, played sport, organised balls etc got the extra curricular skills they needed to get on
The point I made last night - when I referred to the political examples you quote plus Jeremy Thorpe , Edward Boyle and Barbara Castle - was that the Oxbridge Third has largely disappeared. The 1999 article suggests the figure had dropped from circa 30% in 1960 to 5% . I assume the figure today is more like 3%.
I would agree that most Oxbridge thirds would get 2.2s today but the point remains that most people even at Oxbridge do not get a 1st to get on
I don't think we are in disagreement here - though the other point relevant here is that Firsts no longer stand out in quite the way they once did. Again the article states that fewer than 10% were awarded Firsts in 1960 compared with 20% by 1999. It seems likely that the figure today is more in the region of 30%. Specifically I did question how far David Cameron's First in PPE awarded in the late 1980s could be compared with Harold Wilson's First from fifty years earlier. Somebody responded to the effect that whilst Cameron was 'gifted' , Wilson was ' gifted and exceptional'.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
You are being pedantic. I support the centre one nation conservative party and believe I have never, ever, been accused of having any sympathy for fascists. The idea disgusts me
I know you despise Fascists. Hopefully all PBers do.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE=social democrats. Podemos=Syriza. Cs=LibDems. PP=conservatives. Vox=populist right. Others mostly various regional nationalists - interesting that the Catalan nationalists haven't been punished for bringing the government down (yet).
Thus moderate socialists and extreme conservatives up, extreme socialists and moderate conservatives down. Overall balance not too different to now.
I struggle with PP as Conservatives. They are Franco's party. They would encompass the ERG perhaps, but most mainstream Tories would be with the C's I would wager. Of course, support, or otherwise, for the Catholic Church being involved in civic decision making plays a role that makes it difficult to compare directly on a left right axis.
Most Tories would be PP, Rees-Mogg et al would be sympathetic to the Eurosceptic Vox, Soubry and Grieve would be C's
I am PP but do not object to C. ERG do not have my support at all
OK, serious question - would you support the Conservatives if they had their origin in the British Union of Fascists? Because that would be the equivalent of PP.
Origins of anything can be very different to what it is are now.
The GOP in America has its origins in fighting slavery and seeking to liberate blacks; founded with Abraham Lincoln and the Emancipation Proclamation. while the Democratic Party of America has its origins in maintaining slavery and the forced relocations of native Americans; founded with Andrew Jackson and the Trail of Tears.
Does that means native Americans and blacks should all support the GOP?
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
The average Tory member wants Boris or Rees-Mogg to be their next leader
I don't think average means what you think it means.
Please show me any scientific polling study of Tory members (not BS like UKIPHome surveys) that shows that 50% of Tory members want Boris or Rees-Mogg to be their next leader.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful bn
The point I made last night - when I referred to the political examples you quote plus Jeremy Thorpe , Edward Boyle and Barbara Castle - was that the Oxbridge Third has largely disappeared. The 1999 article suggests the figure had dropped from circa 30% in 1960 to 5% . I assume the figure today is more like 3%.
I would agree that most Oxbridge thirds would get 2.2s today but the point remains that most people even at Oxbridge do not get a 1st to get on
I don't think we are in disagreement here - though the other point relevant here is that Firsts no longer stand out in quite the way they once did. Again the article states that fewer than 10% were awarded Firsts in 1960 compared with 20% by 1999. It seems likely that the figure today is more in the region of 30%. Specifically I did question how far David Cameron's First in PPE awarded in the late 1980s could be compared with Harold Wilson's First from fifty years earlier. Somebody responded to the effect that whilst Cameron was 'gifted' , Wilson was ' gifted and exceptional'.
Hence Wilson became an Oxbridge Don and Cameron became a political adviser then went into PR, in the pre War period Cameron would probably have got a high 2.1
A PSOE Citizens deal is still possible in my view, that could have a majority with Others and I think Sanchez would prefer that than having to deal with Podemos and Catalan nationalists and Rivera would prefer that than having to share power with Vox
I note in Andalusia PP, Citizens and VOX formed a Government but PSOE had run the province for 32 years and as we often see, after a long period of one party dominance, all the other parties can find common cause to get them out.
I'm not sold on a PSOE/Cs Government - I think Cs gravitate more to the right and would much prefer to work with PP. There's also the problem that PSOE/Cs end up about 160 so will need other parties to form a stable majority Government in a 350-seat Cortes.
IF VOX are akin to the Swedish Democrats or AfD and beyond the pale for all governing parties, it will give PSOE a much stronger hand.
Citizens have ruled out any coalition with Sanchez and PSOE because they are strongly opposed to Catalonian independence movement. At the moment a PP/C's coalition with tacit support from Vox is considered the most likely result but it is early days.
Cs are polling much lower since they got into bed with PP and Vox. It seems as if the voters the party won over from PSOE might be going back. Cs may find themselves getting squeezed if they are not careful. The Andalusia pact and marching with Vox and PP against Sanchez last Sunday may not have been the smartest move. It’s clear now that a vote for Cs is a vote for PP/Vox.
OInly one poll seriously suggests that and even then they remain above Podemos who have their own problems. The picture is very unclear at this stage. The biggest danger at the moment is probably a surge for Vox and that is very much down to Sanchez policy on Catalonia and his very Liberal views on immigration which have already done for PSOE in Andalucia. I guess the most likely outcome of the GE is a similar mess as is seen in a great number of European countries at the moment. The degree to which the voting public are aout of step with the politicians is striking here as elsewhere.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
Re: Spain it is worth noting that they operate a Party list system but it does not del;iver a proportionate result - the weightings appear to favour the big paries at the expense of the others so the polls can be misleading in this respect as well. Last time both Podemos and Ciudadanos got way fewer seats than the polls were suggesting and it seems that was partly due to both the electoral system as well as unreliable polling.
Rural areas are over-represented, which helps PP and should help Vox. It takes something like 40,000 votes to secure a deputy in somewhere like Soria and 100,000 in the big cities.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
Are Citizens LDs? I thought they were Catalonians who strongly supported remaining in Spain over other considerations.
More comparable to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories than Nick Clegg's Lib Dems.
The Citizens are Orange Book LDs in UK terms, certainly very close to Clegg's LDs, Davidson is still a Tory even if a moderate one
They're a Catalonian Spanish national party. Davidsons Scottish Tories are most comparable.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
Hannan is entirely right. The EU are our adversaries now.
No they are not. They are our trading partners and near neighbours with whom we have a great deal in common and have common interests. We don't agree about everything but we do agree about a lot of things. This sort of inflammatory rubbish is not helpful, constructive or, frankly, completely sane.
Name one other trading partner or neighbour trying to subjugate us into accepting their laws and regulations in perpetuity with no unilateral recourse to exit?
The backstop is an unprecedented hostile abomination. We had a right to exit the EU - all of it - giving 2 years notice but may never accept their regulations without their permission? That is the hostile actions of an adversary.
If the EU wants to drop the backstop and negotiate as equals and partners then nothing would make me happier to call them our friends. Until then though ...
We asked for the backstop. It is in our interests. It was a major concession to us by the EU.
The Citizens are Orange Book LDs in UK terms, certainly very close to Clegg's LDs
If that. Cs are the Danny Alexanders of Spanish politics, basically Thatcherites who've fallen into centrist politics through circumstance (in this case, appealing to the Catalonian electorate). I think even Clegg would find them too right-wing. They have very little in common with today's LibDems apart from ALDE membership.
Hannan is entirely right. The EU are our adversaries now.
No they are not. They are our trading partners and near neighbours with whom we have a great deal in common and have common interests. We don't agree about everything but we do agree about a lot of things. This sort of inflammatory rubbish is not helpful, constructive or, frankly, completely sane.
Name one other trading partner or neighbour trying to subjugate us into accepting their laws and regulations in perpetuity with no unilateral recourse to exit?
The backstop is an unprecedented hostile abomination. We had a right to exit the EU - all of it - giving 2 years notice but may never accept their regulations without their permission? That is the hostile actions of an adversary.
If the EU wants to drop the backstop and negotiate as equals and partners then nothing would make me happier to call them our friends. Until then though ...
We asked for the backstop. It is in our interests. It was a major concession to us by the EU.
Try and keep up.
No we didn't don't lie. The EU asked for the backstop, May asked for it not to be NI only.
If its a major concession its no big deal for them to drop it as we don't want it.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
The average Tory member then does not want Boris or Rees Mogg.
QED.
Add the 8% who want Davis and the 7% who want Raab to the 35% for Boris or Rees Mogg and 50% of Tory members want a hard Brexiteer to succeed May, add the 1% for Mordaunt and that makes 51% for a hard Brexiteer even including Don't Knows
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither are Vox. PP is moving rightwards, though. It’s like the Tories and UKIP over here. There is a crossover where the right of PP is pretty indistinguishable from Vox, which is no great surprise given that a lot of Vox’s leadership is ex-PP. If you look at the combined score for the parties in most polls it is very similar to the PP result in the last GE.
"It would be weird if the split came before the key Brexit votes in 11 days' time"
Interesting phrasing. Suggests, perhaps, you think it will happen.
No obvious Jenkins or Williams figures. (Not sure they want a Owen-like figure).
We could have 5 or 6 main parties at the next GE, although I'd bet we'll just have the usual two, with the odd 'that's him over there' party in the mix.
I imagine so - the non-denials lately have been pretty suggestive, although I've also seen it said that they were simply intended to push Corbyn into a 2nd referendum stance. The absence of an obvious leader is a snag, as you say - I'd guess people have vaguely heard of Umunna and Soubry, but not obvious that either of them would be seen as obvious PMs. I tend to agree with your prediction, but who knows about anything these days?
I'd find a Soubry/Umunna led party attractive. It would be a bit like a pre-Thatcher Tory Party maybe. But I'd much rather a clearly anti-Brexit stance from Labour.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
Are Citizens LDs? I thought they were Catalonians who strongly supported remaining in Spain over other considerations.
More comparable to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories than Nick Clegg's Lib Dems.
The Citizens are Orange Book LDs in UK terms, certainly very close to Clegg's LDs, Davidson is still a Tory even if a moderate one
They're a Catalonian Spanish national party. Davidsons Scottish Tories are most comparable.
Wrong - Ciudadanos originated there but have been a force throughout the whole country for several years now.
The Citizens are Orange Book LDs in UK terms, certainly very close to Clegg's LDs
If that. Cs are the Danny Alexanders of Spanish politics, basically Thatcherites who've fallen into centrist politics through circumstance (in this case, appealing to the Catalonian electorate). I think even Clegg would find them too right-wing. They have very little in common with today's LibDems apart from ALDE membership.
They have a lot in common with Orange Book LDs and En Marche with whom they share ALDE membership, remember too a lot of former sandal wearing LDs are now voting for Corbyn Labour
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
The average Tory member then does not want Boris or Rees Mogg.
QED.
Add the 8% who want Davis and the 7% who want Raab to the 35% for Boris or Rees Mogg and 50% of Tory members want a hard Brexiteer to succeed May, add the 1% for Mordaunt and that makes 51% for a hard Brexiteer even including Don't Knows
The average Tory member wants a hard Brexiteer to succeed May is worlds apart from the average Tory member wants Boris or Rees Mogg.
That's like saying the average punter thinks Corbyn is going to be next PM for all the times he tops the odds for next PM but actually only has a 20% chance himself. It just means the rest of the views are split.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
Are Citizens LDs? I thought they were Catalonians who strongly supported remaining in Spain over other considerations.
More comparable to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Tories than Nick Clegg's Lib Dems.
The Citizens are Orange Book LDs in UK terms, certainly very close to Clegg's LDs, Davidson is still a Tory even if a moderate one
They're a Catalonian Spanish national party. Davidsons Scottish Tories are most comparable.
They are a Spanish Liberal party who happen to support Spanish unity like the LDs who also support UK unity, not a regional branch of the main centre right Spanish party the PP like Davidson's Scottish Toires
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful bn
The point I made last night - when I referred to the political examples you quote plus Jeremy Thorpe , Edward Boyle and Barbara Castle - was that the Oxbridge Third has largely disappeared. The 1999 article suggests the figure had dropped from circa 30% in 1960 to 5% . I assume the figure today is more like 3%.
I would agree that most Oxbridge thirds would get 2.2s today but the point remains that most people even at Oxbridge do not get a 1st to get on
I don't think we are in disagreement here - though the other point relevant here is that Firsts no longer stand out in quite the way they once did. Again the article states that fewer than 10% were awarded Firsts in 1960 compared with 20% by 1999. It seems likely that the figure today is more in the region of 30%. Specifically I did question how far David Cameron's First in PPE awarded in the late 1980s could be compared with Harold Wilson's First from fifty years earlier. Somebody responded to the effect that whilst Cameron was 'gifted' , Wilson was ' gifted and exceptional'.
Hence Wilson became an Oxbridge Don and Cameron became a political adviser then went into PR, in the pre War period Cameron would probably have got a high 2.1
Oxford did not divide its Second Class Degrees until the early 80s.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
The average Tory member wants Boris or Rees-Mogg to be their next leader
The membship, infiltrated with ukip, may. The majority of conservative voters and the population as a whole do not
Tim Bale, Sussex Uni Jan Surv-in-the-race-to-succeed-may.html
So 35% of Tory members want Boris or Rees Mogg.
The average Tory member then does not want Boris or Rees Mogg.
QED.
Add the 8% who want Davis and the 7% who want Raab to the 35% for Boris or Rees Mogg and 50% of Tory members want a hard Brexiteer to succeed May, add the 1% for Mordaunt and that makes 51% for a hard Brexiteer even including Don't Knows
The average Tory member wants a hard Brexiteer to succeed May is worlds apart from the average Tory member wants Boris or Rees Mogg.
That's like saying the average punter thinks Corbyn is going to be next PM for all the times he tops the odds for next PM but actually only has a 20% chance himself. It just means the rest of the views are split.
It is not given the final round will likely be a hard Brexiteer v a Dealer or former Remainer. Even if May delivers the Deal or a BINO Brexit the Tories will likely shift to a hard Brexit position once she is replaced as leader
Some of us were last night discussing the disappearance of the Oxbridge Third Class Degree in recent decades. I have come across this piece from the Independent writen in 1999 . Surprised to discover that circa 30% were being awarded Thirds in 1960!
A lament for the third-class degree
Diane Coyle | Monday 2 August 1999 00:02 | | The Independent Culture
'SOME OF my best friends got a third-class degree, and they're amongst the most impressive and successful people I know. It only goes to prove that formal academic attainment has only a tenuous connection with the sorts of talent needed to get on in life, that some people do not do very well in exams, and besides that, a degree is only a hurdle to jump over before you get on with life.
However, it turns out that other people take the degree business very much more seriously. Universities have more or less stopped handing out thirds because it puts students off applying to them. There are also more firsts. More than one -in-five students at Oxford and Cambridge universities get a first now, compared with fewer than one-in-10 in 1960. The proportions getting thirds have gone from around 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent.'
Plenty of successful bn
The point I made last night - when I referred to the political examples you quote plus Jeremy Thorpe , Edward Boyle and Barbara Castle - was that the Oxbridge Third has largely disappeared. The 1999 article suggests the figure had dropped from circa 30% in 1960 to 5% . I assume the figure today is more like 3%.
I would agree that most Oxbridge thirds would get 2.2s today but the point remains that most people even at Oxbridge do not get a 1st to get on
I don't think we are in disagreement here - though the other point relevant here is that Firsts no longer stand out in quite the way they once did. Again the article states that fewer than 10% were awarded Firsts in 1960 compared with 20% by 1999. It seems likely that the figure today is more in the region of 30%. Specifically I did question how far David Cameron's First in PPE awarded in the late 1980s could be compared with Harold Wilson's First from fifty years earlier. Somebody responded to the effect that whilst Cameron was 'gifted' , Wilson was ' gifted and exceptional'.
Hence Wilson became an Oxbridge Don and Cameron became a political adviser then went into PR, in the pre War period Cameron would probably have got a high 2.1
Oxford did not divide its Second Class Degrees until the early 80s.
Mr. Observer, any thoughts on how the final result will end up going? Not au fait with Spanish politics.
It’s really hard to call. A very fragile right wing coalition looks most likely, followed by a big attack on Catalan autonomy and a significant ratcheting up of tensions. But PSOE is looking stronger than I had anticipated, so that may not be as inevitable as it had seemed. Here’s another poll telling a similar story:
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither are Vox. PP is moving rightwards, though. It’s like the Tories and UKIP over here. There is a crossover where the right of PP is pretty indistinguishable from Vox, which is no great surprise given that a lot of Vox’s leadership is ex-PP. If you look at the combined score for the parties in most polls it is very similar to the PP result in the last GE.
As with the Nissan desicion it was not the only factor but it does in this case seen to be the straw to break the camel’s back.
flyBMI was the last remnant of British Midland Airways, founded in 1946 as Derby Aviation, and renamed when into moved its base to Castle Donington airport in 1964. In its final incarnation, it was using relatively small Embraer jets to fly lesser routes, many of which were between European airports outside the UK.
Under EU rules, airlines must prove that they are more than 50 percent owned and controlled by EU investors to retain flying rights within the bloc. British Airways, now part of the Spanish-registered IAG, will no longer be British to retain these flying rights. In any case the name British Airways has been something of a misnomer in recent years - London Airways would be a more accurate description.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither are Vox. PP is moving rightwards, though. It’s like the Tories and UKIP over here. There is a crossover where the right of PP is pretty indistinguishable from Vox, which is no great surprise given that a lot of Vox’s leadership is ex-PP. If you look at the combined score for the parties in most polls it is very similar to the PP result in the last GE.
Isn't Rivera the Cs leader also ex PP?
He has denied it, but he has also taken Cs rightward over the last two years. He’s made a big call in going into alliance with PP and Vox. Everyone now knows a vote for Cs is essentially a vote for the right.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither are Vox. PP is moving rightwards, though. It’s like the Tories and UKIP over here. There is a crossover where the right of PP is pretty indistinguishable from Vox, which is no great surprise given that a lot of Vox’s leadership is ex-PP. If you look at the combined score for the parties in most polls it is very similar to the PP result in the last GE.
Isn't Rivera the Cs leader also ex PP?
He has denied it, but he has also taken Cs rightward over the last two years. He’s made a big call in going into alliance with PP and Vox. Everyone now knows a vote for Cs is essentially a vote for the right.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither are Vox. PP is moving rightwards, though. It’s like the Tories and UKIP over here. There is a crossover where the right of PP is pretty indistinguishable from Vox, which is no great surprise given that a lot of Vox’s leadership is ex-PP. If you look at the combined score for the parties in most polls it is very similar to the PP result in the last GE.
Isn't Rivera the Cs leader also ex PP?
He has denied it, but he has also taken Cs rightward over the last two years. He’s made a big call in going into alliance with PP and Vox. Everyone now knows a vote for Cs is essentially a vote for the right.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither arer to the PP result in the last GE.
Isn't Rivera the Cs leader also ex PP?
He has denied it, but he has also taken Cs rightward over the last two years. He’s made a big call in going into alliance with PP and Vox. Everyone now knows a vote for Cs is essentially a vote for the right.
That suggests if PP and Cs does not get a majority, PSOE and Cs may be possible if Vox is needed for a PP government
What happened in Andalusia is the Cs talked to PP and PP talked to Vox. That’s what would happen after a GE as well. The demo in Madrid last Sunday against Sanchez and PSOE had Casado, Rivera and Abascal, the Vox leader, at its head. The message was very clear. Cs has made its bed now.
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither arer to the PP result in the last GE.
Isn't Rivera the Cs leader also ex PP?
He has denit.
'Rivera distances with ment
What happened in Andalusia is the Cs talked to PP and PP talked to Vox. That’s what would happen after a GE as well. The demo in Madrid last Sunday against Sanchez and PSOE had Casado, Rivera and Abascal, the Vox leader, at its head. The message was very clear. Cs has made its bed now.
The PSOE had been in power for decades in Andalusia not less than a year as in Spain nationally, marching against the current government's Catalonia policy and for new elections is not the same as marching for a deal with Vox
PP was founded by a fascist, but of course at the time the PSOE was avowedly Marxist, so you know, hey ho. Neither are those things now. They are mainstream parties of the left and right (certainly the religious element gives PP a bit of a different feel to the Tories, but still).
First poll since the Spanish GE announced. PSOE and Vox both surging. PP and Pidemos well down. Cs going nowhere. Plenty can change, though, between now an 28th April.
As my knowledge of Spanish politics is nil who is in the ascendency and are they right, centre, or left
PSOE, main Spanish socialists lead, Vox (Spanish UKIP) is surging, far left Podemos and centre right PP are down, Catalan nationalists stable, Citizens (Spanish Orange Book LDs) could hold the balance of power
PP aren't centre right, they are the Falange by another name.
PP are the Tories' sister party in Spain and fellow members of the International Democratic Union
So the Tories are hanging around with Spanish Fascists. And they wonder why people think of them as The Nasty Party.
So are the CDU/CSU, the Swedish Moderates, the Australian Liberals/Nationals, the New Zealand Nationals, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Republicans who are also in the IDU with the Tories
So all of these so-called centre-right parties are prepared to align themselves with Fascists.
Showing their true colours.
I think the PP are bone-headed in their behaviour towards the Catalans. But, it does not make them fascists.
They’re not. Neither arer to the PP result in the last GE.
Isn't Rivera the Cs leader also ex PP?
He has denit.
'Rivera distances with ment
What happened in Andalusia is the Cs talked to PP and PP talked to Vox. That’s what would happen after a GE as well. The demo in Madrid last Sunday against Sanchez and PSOE had Casado, Rivera and Abascal, the Vox leader, at its head. The message was very clear. Cs has made its bed now.
The PSOE had been in power for decades in Andalusia not less than a year as in Spain nationally, marching against the current government's Catalonia policy and for new elections is not the same as marching for a deal with Vox
Vox, for those who think that Franco was a bit of a hand-wringing liberal.
I'm oddly fond of Franco. Yes, he was a brutal, nasty, narcissistic, bigoted, murderous wanker, but he managed to keep Spain out of World War Two, he saved Spain from Stalinist communism (which was what they were looking at, not liberal democracy, as Orwell belatedly realised) and then he voluntarily turned Spain over to monarchy, which turned into liberal democracy.
He is very reminiscent of Pinochet. A tyrant in himself, who in the end was better for his country than the alternative.
e.g. Ask Chileans about Pinochet now, and you see the dissonance. They know he was a ruthless c*nt, but they also accept he is one very big reason Chile is, without doubt, the richest, most successful nation in South America, almost uniquely free of the terrible crime, drug wars, etc
Yet another immensely wealthy Brexit patriot doing all he can to ensure ordinary Brits get no benefit from money he could never hope to spend himself.
The ship is sinking, so the rats are leaving.
The "Useful Idiots" will be along in a minute to tell us that it is nothing to do with Brexit ...
You correctly observed the other day that the tone of this place is deteriorating. Why not buck the trend by not calling other posters idiots for saying something they haven't even said yet?
I'm no fan of Corbyn, but I can't weep any tears for Dugher. One of the worst examples of thuggish Union Labour we've seen in recent years. I doubt he'll be welcomed into any new Umunna party.
Vox, for those who think that Franco was a bit of a hand-wringing liberal.
I'm oddly fond of Franco. Yes, he was a brutal, nasty, narcissistic, bigoted, murderous wanker, but he managed to keep Spain out of World War Two, he saved Spain from Stalinist communism (which was what they were looking at, not liberal democracy, as Orwell belatedly realised) and then he voluntarily turned Spain over to monarchy, which turned into liberal democracy.
He is very reminiscent of Pinochet. A tyrant in himself, who in the end was better for his country than the alternative.
e.g. Ask Chileans about Pinochet now, and you see the dissonance. They know he was a ruthless c*nt, but they also accept he is one very big reason Chile is, without doubt, the richest, most successful nation in South America, almost uniquely free of the terrible crime, drug wars, etc
Franco was also shrewd enough to use Hitler's support to beat the Communists in the Spanish Civil War but then stay neutral in WW2 thus ensuring he survived the War unlike Hitler and Mussolini
Yet another immensely wealthy Brexit patriot doing all he can to ensure ordinary Brits get no benefit from money he could never hope to spend himself.
The ship is sinking, so the rats are leaving.
The "Useful Idiots" will be along in a minute to tell us that it is nothing to do with Brexit ...
You correctly observed the other day that the tone of this place is deteriorating. Why not buck the trend by not calling other posters idiots for saying something they haven't even said yet?
Perhaps you are unaware of the origin of the term "Useful Idiots"? It was attributed to Lenin as describing those who blindly supported a cause with little understanding of how its dire consequences would ruin their lives.
Vox, for those who think that Franco was a bit of a hand-wringing liberal.
I'm oddly fond of Franco. Yes, he was a brutal, nasty, narcissistic, bigoted, murderous wanker, but he managed to keep Spain out of World War Two, he saved Spain from Stalinist communism (which was what they were looking at, not liberal democracy, as Orwell belatedly realised) and then he voluntarily turned Spain over to monarchy, which turned into liberal democracy.
He is very reminiscent of Pinochet. A tyrant in himself, who in the end was better for his country than the alternative.
e.g. Ask Chileans about Pinochet now, and you see the dissonance. They know he was a ruthless c*nt, but they also accept he is one very big reason Chile is, without doubt, the richest, most successful nation in South America, almost uniquely free of the terrible crime, drug wars, etc
Brazilians also hope Bolsonaro will do for them what Pinochet did for Chile and free them from heavy crime and the corruption of the leftist Workers' Party which ruled for over a decade
Vox, for those who think that Franco was a bit of a hand-wringing liberal.
I'm oddly fond of Franco. Yes, he was a brutal, nasty, narcissistic, bigoted, murderous wanker, but he managed to keep Spain out of World War Two, he saved Spain from Stalinist communism (which was what they were looking at, not liberal democracy, as Orwell belatedly realised) and then he voluntarily turned Spain over to monarchy, which turned into liberal democracy.
He is very reminiscent of Pinochet. A tyrant in himself, who in the end was better for his country than the alternative.
e.g. Ask Chileans about Pinochet now, and you see the dissonance. They know he was a ruthless c*nt, but they also accept he is one very big reason Chile is, without doubt, the richest, most successful nation in South America, almost uniquely free of the terrible crime, drug wars, etc
If one was a middle class or Catholic Spaniard, in 1936, there was not much choice, but to support the Nationalists. That's the logic of civil war. You pick the side that won't kill you.
Yet another immensely wealthy Brexit patriot doing all he can to ensure ordinary Brits get no benefit from money he could never hope to spend himself.
The ship is sinking, so the rats are leaving.
The "Useful Idiots" will be along in a minute to tell us that it is nothing to do with Brexit ...
Tax avoidance is a consequence of Brexit?
It soon will be...
So you yourself are saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit?
One of the consequences of Brexit will be a reduction in tax take as industries relocate to Europe. The obvious place to recoup that is the very wealthy. Their tax advisors would be negligent not to advise them to get their money abroad.
Then, they can safely opine on how Brexit is a "Good Thing" ™ from the safety of their foreign domiciles
Comments
What is the ward?
Showing their true colours.
Nevertheless here's someone else that thinks it'll come down to Roberts.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/its-up-to-chief-justice-john-roberts-to-stop-trumps-border-wall?ref=author
The PP have also produced Aznar, who as Spanish PM was one of the best European leaders of the last few decades (even Blair was mates with him)
The GOP in America has its origins in fighting slavery and seeking to liberate blacks; founded with Abraham Lincoln and the Emancipation Proclamation.
while the Democratic Party of America has its origins in maintaining slavery and the forced relocations of native Americans; founded with Andrew Jackson and the Trail of Tears.
Does that means native Americans and blacks should all support the GOP?
Tory members Boris 20% Rees Mogg 15% Don't Know 12% Davis 8% Javid 8%
Tory voters Boris 15% Rees Mogg 7% Don't Know 38% Davis 4% Rudd 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/tim-bale-johnson-and-rees-mogg-are-still-in-with-a-shout-in-the-race-to-succeed-may.html
Please show me any scientific polling study of Tory members (not BS like UKIPHome surveys) that shows that 50% of Tory members want Boris or Rees-Mogg to be their next leader.
The average Tory member then does not want Boris or Rees Mogg.
QED.
Try and keep up.
If its a major concession its no big deal for them to drop it as we don't want it.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1096841662754709505?s=19
That's like saying the average punter thinks Corbyn is going to be next PM for all the times he tops the odds for next PM but actually only has a 20% chance himself. It just means the rest of the views are split.
They’ll all give Gibraltar a hard time, and agitate tensions with the UK.
"mode" = mOst Often
"median" = the one in the middlE
"mean" = the arithmetic average. Because arithmetic is mean.
Under EU rules, airlines must prove that they are more than 50 percent owned and controlled by EU investors to retain flying rights within the bloc. British Airways, now part of the Spanish-registered IAG, will no longer be British to retain these flying rights. In any case the name British Airways has been something of a misnomer in recent years - London Airways would be a more accurate description.
https://twitter.com/Ciara87C/status/1096836514816897029
https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20181205/rivera-distancias-vox-planteamos-pp-psoe-no/358464700_0.html
That suggests if PP and Cs does not get a majority, PSOE and Cs may be possible if Vox is needed for a PP government
https://twitter.com/WitneyLeaks/status/1096886255395241987
The successes of Brexit, about as effective as communism.
The "Useful Idiots" will be along in a minute to tell us that it is nothing to do with Brexit ...
Why am I not surprised?
Is 'oddly' the odd word out there?
Then, they can safely opine on how Brexit is a "Good Thing" ™ from the safety of their foreign domiciles