They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in Japan
So they have a choice.
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
"Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."
I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.
Not at all.
I am reporting the news on the new situation and the zero car tariffs for Japan since yesterday. There are genuine stories of brexit stress but this does not seem to be one
You might be right if it is cheaper to make in Japan and ship directly to Europe. If it is cheaper to make locally then Brexit is the reason. I don't know which it is. I don't think anyone else pasting on here will either.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in Japan
So they have a choice.
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
Errrh the Nissan X-Trail is primarily a diesel car. I doubt they will be doing any ramping up of production of it, at least not for the European market.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
"Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."
I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.
Not at all.
I am reporting the news on the new situation and the zero car tariffs for Japan since yesterday. There are genuine stories of brexit stress but this does not seem to be one
You might be right if it is cheaper to make in Japan and ship directly to Europe. If it is cheaper to make locally then Brexit is the reason. I don't know which it is. I don't think anyone else pasting on here will either.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
No they haven't. Am I missing a joke here?
I thought it used to be “for the many *not* the few”
I may have misread it when it flashed up on screen but thought it was quite clever. On its own it’s a less good slogan but cuts off the anti-Semitic parodies (for the many not the Jew) and is close enough no one will notice.
Ah no. You read it correctly but missed the preceding caption that the divide in this country is ... between the many and the few. The slogan at the end is unchanged. I think that is what is going on, anyway.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in Japan
So they have a choice.
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
Essentially the trade off is benefits from reduced capex / higher operating leverage (single site manufacturing) vs increased transit costs and longer lead times
Brexit doesn’t come into it - especially as you wouldn’t make a decision like this based on Brexit when there is going to be more clarity in a few weeks.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
A bit unlikely, but it could be a big move from Labour to don't know.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The entire operation is already in Japan.
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Dunno. But I do know that given the performance of the government and the clusterf*ck that is Brexit, Labour should be ten points clear minimum, and it isn't.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
I think the polling is probably a blip but the appearance of relative unity to get the Brady amendment through has helped matters. And Labours divisions are starting to show.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.
What are the Common External Tariffs on the goods you make?
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in Japan
So they have a choice.
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
Essentially the trade off is benefits from reduced capex / higher operating leverage (single site manufacturing) vs increased transit costs and longer lead times
Brexit doesn’t come into it - especially as you wouldn’t make a decision like this based on Brexit when there is going to be more clarity in a few weeks.
That is exactly what the BBC have said on their 8.00pm news.
The Nissan suv is diesel and their sales are plummeting in Europe and like all car manufacturers thry have a massive over supply, so action has to be taken now
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.
Our global market is more than just the UK. As a result of us having record employment etc there is work happening at the moment to innovate and our investment figures are impressive.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
On this poll the move is labour to conservartive - but I need convincing
However, labour falling in this poll is not surprising with Corbyn finally seeing off a referendum
Where is Starmer in all this. He did not go to no 10 with Corbyn, (preferring to take Milne and Murphy with him ) and he has not done an inerview in days
O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?
I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.
Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.
What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.
Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
Why wouldn't they? I won't be voting Conservative at the next GE because my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewksbury, Con) is an extreme Leaver, but if he were a Remainer I'd certainly consider it.
O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?
I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.
Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.
What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.
Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.
For sure
It's fraud, it will get your conveyancer struck off, and if not you main residence leaves you with a higher CGT bill (if the home appreciates in value).
If you declare it in the TR1 it's open for the world so see; if you don't, you're doing the deal under the table (and couldn't sue if they didn't pay up).
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.
What are the Common External Tariffs on the goods you make?
I don't sell anything that attracts tariffs. I pay about 9% on some of the things I import. But I do research and development and consulting so the scale I work at tariffs are about as important as the window cleaning bill. I do however get around a lot and talk to all sorts of people, visit their factories and above all listen to their problems. This isn't just because I am a warm and sympathetic person. I am interested in finding out their problems and seeing if I have a solution to sell them.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
On the basis of Opinium they have gone to the Tories, most of them are One Nation Tories or New Labour or Liberals ideologically, now that Corbyn has still refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option their main reason for voting for Corbyn Labour has gone given Corbyn Brexit is now little different in reality from May Brexit
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
On the basis of Opinium they have gone to the Tories, most of them are One Nation Tories or New Labour or Liberals ideologically, now that Corbyn has still refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option their main reason for voting for Corbyn Labour has gone
O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?
I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.
Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.
What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.
Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.
For sure
It's fraud, it will get your conveyancer struck off, and if not you main residence leaves you with a higher CGT bill (if the home appreciates in value).
If you declare it in the TR1 it's open for the world so see; if you don't, you're doing the deal under the table (and couldn't sue if they didn't pay up).
Yes has to be a reasonable amount. when i was a boy you always had a separate payment for fixtures and fittings to try and keep you below the next stamp duty level. Had to be reasonable though.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
Why wouldn't they? I won't be voting Conservative at the next GE because my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewksbury, Con) is an extreme Leaver, but if he were a Remainer I'd certainly consider it.
My Dad who is in his constituency says that he is not very hard working. But when you weigh the votes.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
@HYUFD and @Big G. Apologies, can't work block quotes on this IPad. It does seem strange. Maybe we need more polls as confirmation. Seems counter intuitive, but hey what do I know? Corbyn is not impressive, but he hasn't got any worse recently. May remains (mysteriously to me) relatively popular, but again, I don't detect her having improved noticeably.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The entire operation is already in Japan.
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Sack to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
Why wouldn't they? I won't be voting Conservative at the next GE because my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewksbury, Con) is an extreme Leaver, but if he were a Remainer I'd certainly consider it.
My Dad who is in his constituency says that he is not very hard working. But when you weigh the votes.
I would say Laurence knows his audience and plays to it.
@HYUFD and @Big G. Apologies, can't work block quotes on this IPad. It does seem strange. Maybe we need more polls as confirmation. Seems counter intuitive, but hey what do I know? Corbyn is not impressive, but he hasn't got any worse recently. May remains (mysteriously to me) relatively popular, but again, I don't detect her having improved noticeably.
I think he has got a lot worse recently. Other polls indicate the voters did not like him refusing to meet TM and constantly seeking an election. His performances at the dispatch box have been woeful and of course he has killed off the referendum and slighted Starmer by not taking him to no10
He has an added problem with Venezeula in the daily headlines
As far as TM is concerned she has the best tech knowledge of brexit bar none and she does come over as knowing her subject unlike, not only Corbyn, but many other mps on all sides
One other possibility is that Grieve and Soubry are making all the running on the remain side while labour are virtually silent.
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
They could simply be staying home. As the denominator would be smaller, the Tory share would rise without any switchers. Imagine the first poll corresponded to a turnout of 40 million. 16.0 million Labour out of 40 million (40%) 14.8 million Tory (37%) 2.8 million LD (7%)
Now take 3.5 million of Labour and have them stay home. Labour 12.5 million out of 36.5 million (34%) 14.8 million Tories out of 36.5 million (40.5%) 2.8 milliion LD (7.7%). Round to closest number - 34/41/8.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.
Well one household name company I know would have about double that percentage. And they'd have had more if they could have found the buildings to stuff the bloody stuff into.
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.
Question is... "are they stockpiling to protect themselves post Brexit, or are they stockpiling because they predict a massive increase in consumer demand in the lead up to Brexit...?"
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happen
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happen
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happen
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
But its the relative change isn't it ?
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?
Implausible?
That's plausible.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?
They could simply be staying home. As the denominator would be smaller, the Tory share would rise without any switchers. Imagine the first poll corresponded to a turnout of 40 million. 16.0 million Labour out of 40 million (40%) 14.8 million Tory (37%) 2.8 million LD (7%)
Now take 3.5 million of Labour and have them stay home. Labour 12.5 million out of 36.5 million (34%) 14.8 million Tories out of 36.5 million (40.5%) 2.8 milliion LD (7.7%). Round to closest number - 34/41/8.
Maybe Da Yoof have fallen out of love with Magic Grandpa aka Brexit's Bessy Mate......
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.
Question is... "are they stockpiling to protect themselves post Brexit, or are they stockpiling because they predict a massive increase in consumer demand in the lead up to Brexit...?"
They are stockpiling raw materials and components to avoid going out of stock if there is disruption to supplies in the event of a no deal Brexit. I know this because I asked one of my clients why he was doing it and that is what he said.
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.
Question is... "are they stockpiling to protect themselves post Brexit, or are they stockpiling because they predict a massive increase in consumer demand in the lead up to Brexit...?"
My assumption is that firms don't want to have their businesses disrupted in the case of No Deal Brexit. So, I would expect destocking in the event of a Deal.
It was bollocks then. No way May gets a CU through the Conservative MPs.
If a CU gets through most Tory MPs will vote against it, a CU will only pass because the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out No Deal vote with Labour, the LDs and SNP for a permanent CU with SM elements over No Deal. That was how Spelman's anti No Deal amendment passed by 318 votes to 310
As ever you're limited by basing everything on past results. There could easily be up to a hundred or more Tory MPs who would vote for a CU Deal v No Deal when push comes to shove. Even May's existing deal anticipates a form of CU by another name.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happen
No idea. But a way has to be found.
The way is the deal
I think the deal's moment has passed. It's a shame because it was at least not too far off the nation's centre of gravity. But I think only no deal and revocation are left as options. We only have 8 weeks left remember. There will be boats on the water heading to UK ports already that don't know what paperwork they will need when they arrive.
It was bollocks then. No way May gets a CU through the Conservative MPs.
If a CU gets through most Tory MPs will vote against it, a CU will only pass because the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out No Deal vote with Labour, the LDs and SNP for a permanent CU with SM elements over No Deal. That was how Spelman's anti No Deal amendment passed by 318 votes to 310
As ever you're limited by basing everything on past results. There could easily be up to a hundred or more Tory MPs who would vote for a CU Deal v No Deal when push comes to shove. Even May's existing deal anticipates a form of CU by another name.
Well if a hundred or more Tory MPs vote for a CU plus SM elements v No Deal that just reinforces the point even more that there is a majority in the Commons for a permanent CU plus SM elements (and as it would basically apply the backstop terms for NI to the whole UK the DUP could live with it better than they can live with May's Deal) but I would still expect a majority of Tory MPs to vote for No Deal over a permanent CU plus SM elements given May's existing deal is still supposed to be based on a temporary rather than permanent CU.
Anyone know if Theresa's having a mini-break in Wales this weekend?
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkers
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our front
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.
That is so kind - thank you
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The entire operation is already in Japan.
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
Very easily in the sector I know.
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happen
No idea. But a way has to be found.
The way is the deal
I think the deal's moment has passed. It's a shame because it was at least not too far off the nation's centre of gravity. But I think only no deal and revocation are left as options. We only have 8 weeks left remember. There will be boats on the water heading to UK ports already that don't know what paperwork they will need when they arrive.
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The entire operation is already in Japan.
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.
Are you sure? The original announcement 2 years ago talked about the next-gen only terms of the Qashqai, not the X-Trail.
"Building the X-Trail SUV is an unexpected addition to the model line-up at Sunderland"
Anyone know if Theresa's having a mini-break in Wales this weekend?
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkers
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our front
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.
That is so kind - thank you
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
In the words of the hymn -
'Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changes not
Abide with me'
"Change and decay in all around I see" just about sums up political life in Brexit Britain.
Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.
A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.
This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.
Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.
3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
Anyone know if Theresa's having a mini-break in Wales this weekend?
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkers
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our front
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.
That is so kind - thank you
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
In the words of the hymn -
'Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changes not
Abide with me'
"Change and decay in all around I see" just about sums up political life in Brexit Britain.
Indeed - words penned all that time ago just as relevant for today
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The entire operation is already in Japan.
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.
Are you sure? The original announcement 2 years ago talked about the next-gen only terms of the Qashqai, not the X-Trail.
This is certainly crucial...
Nissan was expected to build mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail at Sunderland
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
The entire operation is already in Japan.
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.
Are you sure? The original announcement 2 years ago talked about the next-gen only terms of the Qashqai, not the X-Trail.
This is certainly crucial...
Nissan was expected to build mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail at Sunderland
Uncertaintiy about future tariffs into the EU not an issue then?
Don't the grains of sand get in your eyes with your head buried that way?
There is certainty on tariffs. The X-Trail made in Japan, can now be imported tariff free, due to a recent FTA between EU and Japan. That wasn't in place two years ago, when they announced X-Trail as an brucey bonus. Nor was the fact, that diesels are now about as popular as MAGA hats in Europe.
I said down thread, the big thing to watch is what are Nissan going to do about the Qashqai. They have previously committed to the nex-gen of this brand being made in Sunderland, and it is currently the top selling SUV across Europe.
If they change plans on that, that would undeniably due to Brexit.
Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.
A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.
This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.
Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.
3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
Yes, logic rarely comes into this sort of thing. I can make a reasonably coherent case for my position, but that doesn't explain the incandescent rage and anger I feel about the whole episode. That's coming from somewhere, but I don't know where from. And although I haven't actually switched sides, what I feel now is nothing like what I felt when I voted.
believe it when you see it, or preferably a few minutes later to confirm you aren't dreaming
Given the initial Chicken Coup against Corbz was after EU ref, it wouldn’t surprise me that the hill the Blairites are willing to split over is Brexit.
Apparently based on May extending Article 50 for a month or 2, the Commons voting for her Deal in April and she then calls a general election for June to capitalise on her success (assuming the DUP will back a VONC in the government anyway if the Deal passes).
Can see a few flaws in this cunning plan, starting with the assumption the Commons will ratify her Deal rather than a permanent CU or the possibility of No Deal
Comments
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
But for sure Brexit hasn't been of any help.
Implausible?
Brexit doesn’t come into it - especially as you wouldn’t make a decision like this based on Brexit when there is going to be more clarity in a few weeks.
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
- Brexit did it
...
- No it didn't
I think I have seen this thread about 94 times. I will check back in a few days and see if anything new has turned up.
So something is going wrong within Labour.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.
The Nissan suv is diesel and their sales are plummeting in Europe and like all car manufacturers thry have a massive over supply, so action has to be taken now
This hasn't even been a contest. England have been dreadful.
Surely Root has to resign. He's a poor captain and his desperately needed batting is a shambles,
However, labour falling in this poll is not surprising with Corbyn finally seeing off a referendum
Where is Starmer in all this. He did not go to no 10 with Corbyn, (preferring to take Milne and Murphy with him ) and he has not done an inerview in days
It's disturbing it seemed all too plausible.
Edit - and I stand by my comment about Root. Worst captain in world cricket.
If you declare it in the TR1 it's open for the world so see; if you don't, you're doing the deal under the table (and couldn't sue if they didn't pay up).
That's so much better than by an innings and 13 runs.
Failing to take responsibility for being preternaturally awful seems to have spread beyond Foster, Corbyn and May.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
Apologies, can't work block quotes on this IPad.
It does seem strange. Maybe we need more polls as confirmation. Seems counter intuitive, but hey what do I know?
Corbyn is not impressive, but he hasn't got any worse recently. May remains (mysteriously to me) relatively popular, but again, I don't detect her having improved noticeably.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
He has an added problem with Venezeula in the daily headlines
As far as TM is concerned she has the best tech knowledge of brexit bar none and she does come over as knowing her subject unlike, not only Corbyn, but many other mps on all sides
One other possibility is that Grieve and Soubry are making all the running on the remain side while labour are virtually silent.
Imagine the first poll corresponded to a turnout of 40 million.
16.0 million Labour out of 40 million (40%)
14.8 million Tory (37%)
2.8 million LD (7%)
Now take 3.5 million of Labour and have them stay home.
Labour 12.5 million out of 36.5 million (34%)
14.8 million Tories out of 36.5 million (40.5%)
2.8 milliion LD (7.7%).
Round to closest number - 34/41/8.
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.
Jeremy Corbyn is calling (again) for a General Election to... "help bring austerity to an end".
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
In the words of the hymn -
'Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changes not
Abide with me'
"Building the X-Trail SUV is an unexpected addition to the model line-up at Sunderland"
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-37787890
This is certainly crucial...
Nissan was expected to build mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail at Sunderland
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708
3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
Don't the grains of sand get in your eyes with your head buried that way?
I said down thread, the big thing to watch is what are Nissan going to do about the Qashqai. They have previously committed to the nex-gen of this brand being made in Sunderland, and it is currently the top selling SUV across Europe.
If they change plans on that, that would undeniably due to Brexit.
Can see a few flaws in this cunning plan, starting with the assumption the Commons will ratify her Deal rather than a permanent CU or the possibility of No Deal
If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.
(*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1091783496408940545
[Edit: remove link in case OGH thinks its advertising]
I'm afraid I don't see a way out of that.