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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer

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  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.

    How many children of the voters of Sunderland exercised their rights to work in the EU. The base problem with much of the North East is people not moving but waiting for the jobs to come to them. The malign side of regional pride.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

    Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

    Mostly they live in the world of the retired.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Its even worse than that....its Radiohead live at Glastonbury bad.

    Oddly compelling, that performance, I thought. And admirable too - just no compromise whatsoever with the audience.
  • England make way way too many mistakes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    @Charles may also be completely correct.

    This could well be a warning shot to the government. If there isn't going to be a Deal, then there will be no investment.

    (I wonder if Sunderland's Labour MPs might think about backing Theresa's deal now.)

    Less of the “may” please!
  • Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

    https://twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Since the Japanese PMs visit a couple of weeks ago, Hitachi have cancelled the building of their Wyfla BWR power plant and Nissan are cancelling X-Trail production in Sunderland.

    I suspect the prospect of Brexit and PM Corbyn is putting off a lot of investment at the moment.
  • IanB2 said:

    Probably sod all to do with Brexit and more to do with the car industry struggling in general globally due to massive over production capabilities and the disruption of electric vehicles.

    You keep telling yourself all these bad news stories are nothing to do with Brexit....
    What bad news stories? Look at the big picture.

    Big picture, the UK has its best employment rate EVER in recorded history, while the deficit is coming down faster than predicted and we are growing at twice the rate of the Eurozone and faster than any other European G7 nation.

    Big picture, the car industry is suffering through major turmoil. Except for certain companies like Tesla, the industry has a glut of over production, demand is falling as customers sensibly hold on to older and reliable vehicles longer than normal while the transition to electric continues apace with cars devalueing faster than ever before.

    Logically the big picture shows one and not the other being the cause. Macroeconomically the UK is not taking a hit despite being less than 8 weeks from Brexit day without a ratified deal yet.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    I know Dominic Grieve is not popular with some on here.

    But this is worth reading - https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-conservative-party-has-a-problem-its-no-longer-conservative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

    twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

    Nurses, pensioners, students, kids, teachers, trade unionists.

    No small business people? Just public sector workers?
  • England make way way too many mistakes.

    England Ireland make way way too many mistakes.
  • Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

    twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

    Nurses, pensioners, students, kids, teachers, trade unionists.

    No small business people? Just public sector workers?
    Photos look like mainly six formers to be honest.
  • I see the ref is a secret Ireland fan.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    s.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and do

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

    Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

    Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
    Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.

    But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.

    How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Irish backstop isn't working very well
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Cyclefree said:

    I know Dominic Grieve is not popular with some on here.

    But this is worth reading - https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-conservative-party-has-a-problem-its-no-longer-conservative.

    Our ability as a party to get through this crisis will determine our future fortunes. As a Conservative MP it is my duty to listen to colleagues and to try and find a way through. But we will not find one unless we remember that, historically, the secret of our success as a party has been our ability to provide hope, confidence and leadership for a much wider group of electoral supporters than our membership. Streams of emails may only be the roughest of guides, but I am struck by the numbers who write to me who once gave us their support and now do not. Unless we reassure them of our ability to deliver the quiet stable government they desire, our relevance to promoting the wellbeing of our country must be in question
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 gen generation by then might be favoured

    Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

    If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

    Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

    IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)


    If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote for it, the ERG and certainly the DUP will not be supporting it as it requires the backstop. The DUP have also been adamant that stopping the backstop is a 'blood red line' and if the Deal passes the Commons they will then vote of no confidence the government in order to stop to try and stop it instead.


    TM and the ERG will of course not go all customs union and single market and I have never suggested that, if customs union and single market elements pass it will be through Labour, LD and SNP votes and the votes of the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out no deal (it may also be more acceptable to the DUP if permanent customs union and single market elements for GB mirrors the backstop for NI).
    I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

    Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    The view on a No Deal Brexit from a chip shop in Grimethorpe:

    "We'll have a lot of shit to go through but we'll come out the other side."

    Hard to argue with any of that.
  • I see the ref is a secret Ireland fan.

    He's French...what do you expect?
  • Another great race to be laying rather than backing.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited February 2019
    Nissan were really clear about what they wanted from the Govt with Brexit leverage. The Nissan man at the select committee told them, it was 100million to move the supply chain to Sunderland.

    They got this, as the IMAP was fast tracked and 40mill of Govt money (including EU (even though it is ours) for phase 1 and 60 mill for phase 2.

    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/manufacturing-park/

    It was thought it was for the supply chain to move from the EU but it may well have been for the X-Trail supply chain to move from the far east, or parts of it. If the project is late then perhaps the decision to manufacture has to be delayed, we do not know until Nissan tell us, but certainly Mr Islam is usually economic with the truth to say the least.

    Also for those that wonder what JLR got they got this.

    https://www.electrans.co.uk/uk-open-national-battery-manufacturing-facility/

  • This is the sort of rugby match that gives me the horn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Bloody biased French ref....just saying like...I blame Brexit ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,694
    edited February 2019

    Bloody biased French ref....just saying like...I blame Brexit ;-)

    Didn't even let the TMO have a proper look.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited February 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 gen generation by then might be favoured

    Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

    If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

    Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

    IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)


    If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).
    I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

    Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions
    What indications? The only 'indications' are the ERG and DUP will support a unicorn Deal with no backstop which is why the Brady amendment passed, but Juncker, Barnier and Verhofstadt this week have all been adamant there can be no changes to the Deal which require removal of the backstop.

    The only likely possible change is a shift to permanent Customs Union and Single Market elements which Juncker has said would be acceptable for renegotiation given 301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last year and 318 MPs voted against No Deal last Tuesday but only 202 MPs voted for May's Deal with the backstop last month
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Afternoon all :)

    I'd forgotten it was that tedious time of the year when everyone gets interested in rugby union - a game for thugs played by gentlemen as someone once described it. To be honest, having been forced to play it as a callow youth, it fills me with nothing short of ennui with a bit of irritation thrown in.

    Oh well, chacun a son gout as Robbie Williams would have you believe.

    On matters political, the supporters of Theresa May once again have a straw to clutch with reports and rumours of some Labour MPs backing the WDA and the ERG softening. It's more like whistling to keep your hopes up.

    We've been here before - every so often some friendly journalist offers a crumb of comfort but despite Brady nothing has changed. The WDA still needs to clear the Commons and its proponents are of course hoping the prospect of rubbish piling up in streets or fields (it's a folk memory from the yesteryear of 40 years ago which will play well with people of a certain age), Big Macs becoming the new currency and Waitrose running out of avocadoes will scare enough MPs into swallowing their reservations and signing up.

    As I've always said, fear is the last weapon - make people scared enough and they'll vote for anything.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    matt said:

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.

    How many children of the voters of Sunderland exercised their rights to work in the EU. The base problem with much of the North East is people not moving but waiting for the jobs to come to them. The malign side of regional pride.
    Dear Dear
  • Its a good job England bat deep.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Work on the Qashqai - which makes up the majority of Nissan Sunderland's work - is not expected to be affected. The Qashqai is the best-selling crossover in Europe.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708

    Unclear is that includes the next-gen.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Work on the Qashqai - which makes up the majority of Nissan Sunderland's work - is not expected to be affected. The Qashqai is the best-selling crossover in Europe.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708

    Unclear is that includes the next-gen.

    That’s the point, really. It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production. It’s future product that would become more uncertain.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    matt said:

    Work on the Qashqai - which makes up the majority of Nissan Sunderland's work - is not expected to be affected. The Qashqai is the best-selling crossover in Europe.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708

    Unclear is that includes the next-gen.

    That’s the point, really. It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production. It’s future product that would become more uncertain.
    And it's the future that matters. We are all going to be living there.

    It is in any case easy to get carried away by the headlines. A big car plant is a big news story, but most people work in much smaller businesses. The impact of Brexit on them is what will really count. And the indications are that it is going to be bad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Its a good job England bat deep.....

    If they batted as deep as the Mindanao Trench they would still lose this series.

    It's like the good ol' days for the Windies...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    matt said:

    It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production.

    Apart from Airbus stating it could cease production...
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step

    Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

    If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

    Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

    IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)


    If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).
    I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

    Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions
    What indications? The only 'indications' are the ERG and DUP will support a unicorn Deal with no backstop which is why the Brady amendment passed, but Juncker, Barnier and Verhofstadt this week have all been adamant there can be no changes to the Deal which require removal of the backstop.

    The only likely possible change is a shift to permanent Customs Union and Single Market elements which Juncker has said would be acceptable for renegotiation given 301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last year and 318 MPs voted against No Deal last Tuesday but only 202 MPs voted for May's Deal with the backstop last month
    Predictable response.

    You do not seem to be able to accept that in this monumental crisis yesterdays views and votes can turn on a pin head and render your musings irrelevant.

    Words like the 'only likely possible change' are meaningless as mps face the reality of the Country's desperate position and you have no way whatsoever of knowing which moving parts will change, some dramatically, even in the EU
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    matt said:

    It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production.

    Apart from Airbus stating it could cease production...
    Given what was involved in the abrupt cessation of wing manufacturing, that claim was never going to fly.
  • turns on cricket, first ball wild drive skittles our no.3 bat who isn't a no.3, turns off....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited February 2019

    turns on cricket, first ball wild drive skittles our no.3 bat who isn't a no.3, turns off....

    He's not a No. 3, he's no a 3...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    I don't know what England's obsession with kicking is. Bloody run it...what's the point of having Manu in the backs if you aren't going to.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    Given what was involved in the abrupt cessation of wing manufacturing, that claim was never going to fly.

    If we leave with no deal, how many years do you give the Filton plant?
  • turns on cricket, first ball wild drive skittles our no.3 bat who isn't a no.3, turns off....

    Good job England bat deep.....
  • Send him off.

    That Irishman just used the c word repeatedly on live tv.

    LOCK HIM UP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given what was involved in the abrupt cessation of wing manufacturing, that claim was never going to fly.

    If we leave with no deal, how many years do you give the Filton plant?
    My point (apart from the pun you have missed) is that if people make lurid claims that are clearly not true, this discredits analyses that probably are true.

    There was no way in hell Airbus would instantly stop production in the event of Brexit. Claims to the contrary merely made them look like fools, liars, puppets of the Fascist piss artist or all three together. But given ten years and enough incentive, they surely will build a plant elsewhere and transfer production to it.

    Filton is in any case a bad example, as it is bound up with research which is most unlikely to move to an area where English isn't the main language. I was thinking more of Flintshire and Sunderland.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    matt said:

    It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production.

    Apart from Airbus stating it could cease production...
    I must have missed that.

    Edit - I struggle with how they could transfer all wing production out of the U.K. but if you say so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Send him off.

    That Irishman just used the c word repeatedly on live tv.

    LOCK HIM UP.

    Given the biased French Ref, the only way he gets sent off is if he admits to drinking boxed Australian plonk live on tv.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    (apart from the pun you have missed)

    Flew right over my head...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step

    Let me stop you in your first sentence fhe end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)


    If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).
    I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

    Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions
    What indications? The only 'indicationackstop last month
    Predictable response.

    You do not seem to be able to accept that in this monumental crisis yesterdays views and votes can turn on a pin head and render your musings irrelevant.

    Words like the 'only likely possible change' are meaningless as mps face the reality of the Country's desperate position and you have no way whatsoever of knowing which moving parts will change, some dramatically, even in the EU
    I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

    If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    (apart from the pun you have missed)

    Flew right over my head...
    I'll have to lift the tone of this place.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:




    If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).

    I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

    Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions
    What indications? The only 'indications' are the ERG and DUP will support a unicorn Deal with no backstop which is why the Brady amendment passed, but Juncker, Barnier and Verhofstadt this week have all been adamant there can be no changes to the Deal which require removal of the backstop.

    The only likely possible change is a shift to permanent Customs Union and Single Market elements which Juncker has said would be acceptable for renegotiation given 301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last year and 318 MPs voted against No Deal last Tuesday but only 202 MPs voted for May's Deal with the backstop last month
    Predictable response.

    You do not seem to be able to accept that in this monumental crisis yesterdays views and votes can turn on a pin head and render your musings irrelevant.

    Words like the 'only likely possible change' are meaningless as mps face the reality of the Country's desperate position and you have no way whatsoever of knowing which moving parts will change, some dramatically, even in the EU
    Also seems to live in some bizarre world where the House of Commons can independently negotiate a Brexit deal without the support of the Government or virtually all Conservative MPs.
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'd forgotten it was that tedious time of the year when everyone gets interested in rugby union - a game for thugs played by gentlemen as someone once described it. To be honest, having been forced to play it as a callow youth, it fills me with nothing short of ennui with a bit of irritation thrown in.

    Oh well, chacun a son gout as Robbie Williams would have you believe.

    On matters political, the supporters of Theresa May once again have a straw to clutch with reports and rumours of some Labour MPs backing the WDA and the ERG softening. It's more like whistling to keep your hopes up.

    We've been here before - every so often some friendly journalist offers a crumb of comfort but despite Brady nothing has changed. The WDA still needs to clear the Commons and its proponents are of course hoping the prospect of rubbish piling up in streets or fields (it's a folk memory from the yesteryear of 40 years ago which will play well with people of a certain age), Big Macs becoming the new currency and Waitrose running out of avocadoes will scare enough MPs into swallowing their reservations and signing up.

    As I've always said, fear is the last weapon - make people scared enough and they'll vote for anything.

    Re labour mps, the evidence of support for the deal was evidenced in their votes on public record.
  • Send him off.

    That Irishman just used the c word repeatedly on live tv.

    LOCK HIM UP.

    Given the biased French Ref, the only way he gets sent off is if he admits to drinking boxed Australian plonk live on tv.
    Being a good Muslim boy I don't drink wine, what's so wrong about boxed wine?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Send him off.

    That Irishman just used the c word repeatedly on live tv.

    LOCK HIM UP.

    Given the biased French Ref, the only way he gets sent off is if he admits to drinking boxed Australian plonk live on tv.
    Being a good Muslim boy I don't drink wine, what's so wrong about boxed wine?
    You only wine when people make accurate comments about the Last Jedi?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,157
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given what was involved in the abrupt cessation of wing manufacturing, that claim was never going to fly.

    If we leave with no deal, how many years do you give the Filton plant?
    Broughton where the main wing production is expect ten years plus with existing orders
  • Jesus Christ...massive mistake again from England. New Zealand be watching and thinking well we don't need to worry about this, get us another tinny from the fridge.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Jesus Christ...massive mistake again from England. New Zealand be watching and thinking well we don't need to worry about this, get us another tinny from the fridge.

    Steinlager comes in bottles.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    matt said:

    Jesus Christ...massive mistake again from England. New Zealand be watching and thinking well we don't need to worry about this, get us another tinny from the fridge.

    Steinlager comes in bottles.
    I think they could drink a whole keg and still be ok...
  • Well that's England f##ked with Mario off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:

    matt said:

    It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production.

    Apart from Airbus stating it could cease production...
    When told to say so by the Government, it transpired.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1091759434743857153

    Gotta be an outlier.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting figures, though not surprising.
  • I think Manu tuilagi is imagining every Irish player is Chris Ashton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    That would be almost a repeat of the 1992 general election result (bar the LDs a bit lower and SNP and UKIP a bit higher) and would see May repeat Major's shock win gaining an overall majority against a leader of the opposition expecting to win on his second attempt (for Kinnock read Corbyn).

    In that case if May can somehow get enough Labour MPs to back her Deal she can risk the DUP then supporting a VONC in her government and a subsequent general election.

    Goldstandard Survation still has a Labour minority government though

  • Root gone...Good job England bat deep.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting figures, though not surprising.
    Not surprising the Opposition has dropped six points after the government suffering the heaviest defeat ever on its flagship policy?

    If (if!) this poll is in any way accurate it is a stunning indictment of Labour's utter uselessness.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    HYUFD said:


    I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

    If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine

    It's rare I agree with you, my friend, but in this instance you are absolutely spot on. We have created or reached or had provided for us (depending on your perspective) an irreconcilable dilemma.

    There are, it seems, only two paths open - first, proceed to No Deal with all that may or may not flow from that. Second, seek an extension to the A50 timetable. Now, the EU might not be averse to the latter and you have argued (with some merit) if the UK agreed a permanent CU with the EU, that would likely be a) acceptable to the EU and b) acceptable to a majority in the Commons.

    However, and you'd know this better than I, May has been steadfastly opposed to a CU with the EU so the politics of any shift will be fascinating. Indeed, from where I sit, irrespective of whether a permanent CU is the way out or not, I can't see how this politically ends well for the Conservative Party. Such a change would be seen as a huge betrayal by the ERG and presumably this new anti-EU party with all its big money backers might pick up members and support from Conservative ranks.

    However, as someone else once said, it might be a price worth paying set against the possible consequences of a No Deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Root gone...Good job England bat deep.

    They don't bat nearly as deep as the sh...ambles they're in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited February 2019
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

    If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine

    It's rare I agree with you, my friend, but in this instance you are absolutely spot on. We have created or reached or had provided for us (depending on your perspective) an irreconcilable dilemma.

    There are, it seems, only two paths open - first, proceed to No Deal with all that may or may not flow from that. Second, seek an extension to the A50 timetable. Now, the EU might not be averse to the latter and you have argued (with some merit) if the UK agreed a permanent CU with the EU, that would likely be a) acceptable to the EU and b) acceptable to a majority in the Commons.

    However, and you'd know this better than I, May has been steadfastly opposed to a CU with the EU so the politics of any shift will be fascinating. Indeed, from where I sit, irrespective of whether a permanent CU is the way out or not, I can't see how this politically ends well for the Conservative Party. Such a change would be seen as a huge betrayal by the ERG and presumably this new anti-EU party with all its big money backers might pick up members and support from Conservative ranks.

    However, as someone else once said, it might be a price worth paying set against the possible consequences of a No Deal.
    If permanent CU and SM elements is to pass it will have to come from the legislature and May then reluctantly accepting it as a last resort to avoid No Deal and the will of Parliament.

    It might boost UKIP or a new Farage party a bit with some defections from Tory Leavers to them but nowhere near as much as revoking Brexit would and of course Corbyn will still have to deal with diehard Remainers who will be annoyed there was no EUref with a Remain option and might give the LDs a try
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    The Windies are not going to be batting again are they?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Re Nissan. This perhaps should also be seen in the context of the demise of Ghosn. A reversion to a Japan first policy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Unless the Tories U-Turn on Brexit, I don't see how UKIP get 7% of the vote. They don't have the money or organisation to run a proper national campaign and a bit of sunlight showing that their leader is a fan of Tommy Robinson and all the YouTube "characters" should surely have people unwilling to support that.
  • Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    I don't think Denly will remember his Test debut with fondness either.

    West Indies surely even money to win by an innings here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think Denly will remember his Test debut with fondness either.

    West Indies surely even money to win by an innings here.

    Its a good job England....arhhh I can't be bother with this joke anymore. England are just shit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Here comes bias ref on the case again....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    In fairness, Labour never acknowledges that either. It would mean admitting the NHS was a monumental economic mistake paid for with money we couldn't spare, and they are not willing to.
  • So Fiona Bruce isn't a lying, Blairite, Tory supporting scumbag after all? :smiley:
  • Labour voters move to conservative - Corbyn is being found out

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    So sad to be so bitter
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712

    Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

    https://twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

    So everyone either being paid by the state or receiving benefits from the state.

    Nobody actually paying the taxes that fund it all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    Embarrassing.
  • MikeL said:

    Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

    https://twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

    So everyone either being paid by the state or receiving benefits from the state.

    Nobody actually paying the taxes that fund it all.
    It was a Thursday afternoon. The people who fund it all were at work.
  • Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1091764665548500992

    I had dinner with a big Corbyn fan last night. Their rather generous opinion of his performance on Brexit was "disappointing".
  • DavidL said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    Embarrassing.
    Andrew Neil is on this one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited February 2019
    DavidL said:

    The Windies are not going to be batting again are they?

    Of course the Queen is still Head of State of some Windies islands while Ireland is not only a Republic but not even in the Commonwealth now while being very bolshie about the backstop so I think we can take a loss in the former if we win the latter
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Where's your backstop now Ireland
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    MikeL said:

    Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

    https://twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

    So everyone either being paid by the state or receiving benefits from the state.

    Nobody actually paying the taxes that fund it all.
    What are these benefits for students and faith communities of which you speak?
  • 'Forward pass'
    Matt Dawson
    'There's nothing to say about that pass. It's about three metres forward. It will be interesting to see how Jerome Garces reacts to the replay, whether he just gives Ireland a bit more leeway now.'

    Qtwtain


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Unless the Tories U-Turn on Brexit, I don't see how UKIP get 7% of the vote. They don't have the money or organisation to run a proper national campaign and a bit of sunlight showing that their leader is a fan of Tommy Robinson and all the YouTube "characters" should surely have people unwilling to support that.

    Unless it is No Deal I would expect UKIP to be up on the last general election but it would take Brexit being revoked for them or a new Farage Party to manage to hit double figures again
  • Pulpstar said:

    Where's your backstop now Ireland

    Well its was a Frenchman, but even eventually even he couldn't help.
  • 'Forward pass'
    Matt Dawson
    'There's nothing to say about that pass. It's about three metres forward. It will be interesting to see how Jerome Garces reacts to the replay, whether he just gives Ireland a bit more leeway now.'

    Qtwtain


    Always said that French ref was a good'un.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Pulpstar said:

    Where's your backstop now Ireland

    Well its was a Frenchman, but even eventually even he couldn't help.
    The pitch became a common travel area?
  • Ireland haven't received such a beating from the English since Oliver Cromwell was in charge.

    #WheresYourBackstopNow?
  • What a try from Slade.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Lol Paddy Power.
  • I thought the Irish were favourites for the rugby

    Ireland 13 England 32 looks like a drubbing
This discussion has been closed.