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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 dealing
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https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1091718133801463812
I suppose Boris has to get past the MPs so more of an issue.
Gove - About right
Johnson - Too short
Rabb - Too short
Javid - Too long
Hunt - Too long
Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
Tugendhat - No
Which shows how Brexit has so divided our country.
https://twitter.com/ppl65/status/1091713803337809920
It just shows that those individuals are deeply unpleasant people who take joy in the misfortune of others
What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
When they were in, they were in
And when they were out, they were out
But when they were only half way out
They were neither out nor in.
So the Conservative members will only vote for for Gove if he is against Rudd.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured
So not to do with Brexit.
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.
<img src=https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcCHxtdWAAMUgz0.jpg:large
Will England make WI bat again or not?
We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....
If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain
Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.
IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.
(You notice I do say IMHO)
Pains me that people are going to suffer and if Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then the voters will turn to Corbyn.
But I wonder now whether it might dawn on the EU at this late hour that a No Deal combined with the recession in Europe and the situation in Italy, might break the whole thing.
Will they find some form of unicorny words that allows most of the Tory party to back away from the edge?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1091719558589829120
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1091721627602165765
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1091722893803864069
This is a leak not an official announcement (I think). If that is the case it may be a warning shot rather than a final decision
Which she can't now deliver.
Japan is now tariff free, and Sunderland might not be.
As I said down thread, if they do announce that they are still bringing it to the EU rather than the UK, and the same for the Qashqai, then yes definitely is.
I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.
Mercedes-Benz make cars in the US to avoid their tariffs.
BMW makes cars in China to avoid their tariffs.
Ford makes cars in the EU to avoid their tariffs.
This could well be a warning shot to the government. If there isn't going to be a Deal, then there will be no investment.
(I wonder if Sunderland's Labour MPs might think about backing Theresa's deal now.)
Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.
'PUTREFYING PILES OF WASTE AFTER BREXIT' is the headline in today's Guardian.
(Or maybe they saw the list for T May's successor)
If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote for it, the ERG and certainly the DUP will not be supporting it as it requires the backstop. The DUP have also been adamant that stopping the backstop is a 'blood red line' and if the Deal passes the Commons they will then vote of no confidence the government in order to stop to try and stop it instead.
TM and the ERG will of course not go all customs union and single market and I have never suggested that, if customs union and single market elements pass it will be through Labour, LD and SNP votes and the votes of the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out no deal (it may also be more acceptable to the DUP if permanent customs union and single market elements for GB mirrors the backstop for NI).