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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Bonus point for England. A bonus indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,200
    edited February 2019
    Another England try, looks like the first English win in Dublin since 2013
  • Scott_P said:
    Outlier?

    Or time for May to take a walk in the mountains again?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Labour voters move to conservative - Corbyn is being found out

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    So sad to be so bitter
    Perhaps Kawczynski's ignorance is excusable as he didn't migrate to the UK from Poland until about 35 years after the Second World War.
  • It's not over yet.
  • Scott_P said:
    Outlier?

    Or time for May to take a walk in the mountains again?
    No no no - Mountain rescue have warned climbers and walkers away from our beautiful snow covered mountains in North Wales. ( and the snow is here in the mountains for quite a while)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Unless the Tories U-Turn on Brexit, I don't see how UKIP get 7% of the vote. They don't have the money or organisation to run a proper national campaign and a bit of sunlight showing that their leader is a fan of Tommy Robinson and all the YouTube "characters" should surely have people unwilling to support that.

    Unless it is No Deal I would expect UKIP to be up on the last general election but it would take Brexit being revoked for them or a new Farage Party to manage to hit double figures again
    As usual you ignore the point (or one of the key points) being made. You can't get any votes if you don't have any candidates. When people say they will vote UKIP in opinion polls they are expressing a view about Brexit. But come an election if there's no candidate they can vote for them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Ireland haven't received such a beating from the English since Oliver Cromwell was in charge.

    #WheresYourBackstopNow?

    Sir Arthur Aston wasn't Irish.
  • I said yesterday to lay Ireland for the grand slam.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:
    People are noticing that Labour are just dicking around with Brexit.

    Must worry Labour, Opinium has been their polling safety net.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.

    Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,200
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless the Tories U-Turn on Brexit, I don't see how UKIP get 7% of the vote. They don't have the money or organisation to run a proper national campaign and a bit of sunlight showing that their leader is a fan of Tommy Robinson and all the YouTube "characters" should surely have people unwilling to support that.

    Unless it is No Deal I would expect UKIP to be up on the last general election but it would take Brexit being revoked for them or a new Farage Party to manage to hit double figures again
    As usual you ignore the point (or one of the key points) being made. You can't get any votes if you don't have any candidates. When people say they will vote UKIP in opinion polls they are expressing a view about Brexit. But come an election if there's no candidate they can vote for them.
    Even in 2017 UKIP put up 378 candidates in 650 seats ie more than half.

    Plus Farage will likely launch his own party too unless it is Brexit with No Deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.

    No two ways, £60k on a £180k property for f&f is surely fraudulent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless the Tories U-Turn on Brexit, I don't see how UKIP get 7% of the vote. They don't have the money or organisation to run a proper national campaign and a bit of sunlight showing that their leader is a fan of Tommy Robinson and all the YouTube "characters" should surely have people unwilling to support that.

    Unless it is No Deal I would expect UKIP to be up on the last general election but it would take Brexit being revoked for them or a new Farage Party to manage to hit double figures again
    As usual you ignore the point (or one of the key points) being made. You can't get any votes if you don't have any candidates. When people say they will vote UKIP in opinion polls they are expressing a view about Brexit. But come an election if there's no candidate they can vote for them.
    Even in 2017 UKIP put up 378 candidates in 650 seats ie more than half.

    Plus Farage will likely launch his own party too unless it is Brexit with No Deal
    UKIP has fallen apart since 2017.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    It was bollocks then. No way May gets a CU through the Conservative MPs.
  • O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.

    I would expect a solicitor would be cautious of apportioning so much for contents etc but the most important record is that of the price of £180,000 and should be used for negotiation. It might be useful to go on rightmove and seek price comparisons of other properties in the road or area, as those will be recorded right upto date
  • Scott_P said:
    People are noticing that Labour are just dicking around with Brexit.

    Must worry Labour, Opinium has been their polling safety net.
    Polling company must have been taken over by Blairites.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    MaxPB said:

    O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.

    Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.
    What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.
  • Was that a demonstration of the Irish back stop?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.

    Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.
    What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.
    Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,157
    edited February 2019

    Was that a demonstration of the Irish back stop?

    The Irish are going to be overwhelmed with ridicule over their ' backstop' after that display

    My son has just text me to say

    'not even a hard border would have stopped England today'

    And he is a Welshman but pro Brexit
  • So how good would the England rugby team be if they stopped giving away silly penalties ?

    And how good would the England cricket team be if they played proper warm up games ?
  • Was that a demonstration of the Irish back stop?

    The Irish are going to be overwhelmed with ridicule over their ' backstop' after that display

    My son has just text me to say

    'not even a hard border would have stopped England today'

    And he is a Welshman but pro Brexit
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1091768555400507392
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited February 2019

    Was that a demonstration of the Irish back stop?

    The Irish are going to be overwhelmed with ridicule over their ' backstop' after that display

    My son has just text me to say

    'not even a hard border would have stopped England today'

    And he is a Welshman but pro Brexit
    Big G, the 'but' is anachronistic. Most of our fellow countrymen were.

    If he was Gibraltarian and pro-Brexit, that would be different.
  • ydoethur said:

    Was that a demonstration of the Irish back stop?

    The Irish are going to be overwhelmed with ridicule over their ' backstop' after that display

    My son has just text me to say

    'not even a hard border would have stopped England today'

    And he is a Welshman but pro Brexit
    Big G, the 'but' is anachronistic. Most of our fellow countrymen were.

    If he was Gibraltarian and pro-Brexit, that would be different.
    Fair comment
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
  • Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    For labour missing at the end of your sentence ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    For labour missing at the end of your sentence ?
    Well yes. Or perhaps, for politics.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Scott_P said:
    Outlier?

    Or time for May to take a walk in the mountains again?
    Corbyn gave up his priceless USP which against all the odds saw him stay in the game last time.

    The man's politically inept.



  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    BigG, Marquee Mark, MaxPB - many thanks, will pass your helpful comments on.
  • matt said:

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.

    How many children of the voters of Sunderland exercised their rights to work in the EU. The base problem with much of the North East is people not moving but waiting for the jobs to come to them. The malign side of regional pride.
    Work where in the EU ?

    The overwhelming trend is for people to economically migrate from poorer areas to richer areas.

    So not only does that severely restrict the attractions of most EU countries to British workers (especially at a time of full employment in the UK) it means any who do move to say Germany will be competing against large numbers of potential workers who come from poorer countries and so are likely to accept lower wages.

    And that's before we mention the quality of foreign language teaching in the UK - low level French of German might be okay for a vegetable picking job but if you want high pay you'll need much better language skills.
  • “England finally forced a concession out of the Irish backstop.”
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I can understand a bad response for labour from remainers now they have turned against a referendum but that should go to the lib dems. I think we need to see other polls but a 16% satisfaction with Corbyn over brexit is not at all surprising. He is being found out
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited February 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
    Isn't it more likely to be a big increases in "don't knows/won't votes?"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?

    To branch off the discussion for a moment, I have also noticed this. Consider the following:

    * There are many announcements recently of job losses, plausibly blamed on Brexit
    * Macroeconomic data continues positive

    Possible explanations include:

    * Jobs are created elsewhere that outweigh the loss
    * Current growth is driven by EU membership (and will contract after departure) but is still positive
    * Investment is coming in from elsewhere that outweighs the loss
    * The numbers are just wrong
    * Something else

    I don't know which of these are true. I should imagine we'll know further after we Leave.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I can understand a bad response for labour from remainers now they have turned against a referendum but that should go to the lib dems. I think we need to see other polls but a 16% satisfaction with Corbyn over brexit is not at all surprising. He is being found out
    Well, a 16% satisfaction rating is actually quite surprising. It suggests that one in seven voters think he has a strategy and like it.

    But I can't see that anyone switching from Labour at this moment would be going to the Tories. That's what I would expect if they started blocking Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
    Isn't it more likely to be a big increases in "don't knows/won't votes?"
    That would make more sense, but not a lot more. We need more data really, but I'm going to take some convincing on the direction of travel here.
  • Charles said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
    The days when Labour patriotically backed the UK, its armed forces, and its place in the world, rather the barely camouflaged traitors who lead it today.
  • Was that a demonstration of the Irish back stop?

    The Irish are going to be overwhelmed with ridicule over their ' backstop' after that display

    My son has just text me to say

    'not even a hard border would have stopped England today'

    And he is a Welshman but pro Brexit
    Darn. I was beaten to that joke multiple times over 20 minutes ago.

    I should have known, on this site.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?

    I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.

    Solicitors have to certify the allocation of money on the SDLT return. There’s some scope but more than about £5-10k for f&f is very difficult. You can be more creative where there is a separate building (eg garage with a separate lease) that can be sold independently.

    Your friends solicitor should ask for the SDLT return for the last transaction.

  • ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
    Isn't it more likely to be a big increases in "don't knows/won't votes?"
    That would make more sense, but not a lot more. We need more data really, but I'm going to take some convincing on the direction of travel here.
    Maybe more polls will give an idea of the trend
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,733

    Charles said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
    The days when Labour patriotically backed the UK, its armed forces, and its place in the world, rather the barely camouflaged traitors who lead it today.
    So you think the Attlee government made the right strategic decisions?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    Or maybe a tweak to some internal element of the polling that has some unforeseen cumulative impact.....
  • Charles said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
    The days when Labour patriotically backed the UK, its armed forces, and its place in the world, rather the barely camouflaged traitors who lead it today.
    So you think the Attlee government made the right strategic decisions?
    I think the post war nationalisations were a mistake.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Was expecting to be able to dismiss the Opinium based on MoE, but it's 2%. Hrrrrm, odd.
  • HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

    If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine

    It's rare I agree with you, my friend, but in this instance you are absolutely spot on. We have created or reached or had provided for us (depending on your perspective) an irreconcilable dilemma.

    There are, it seems, only two paths open - first, proceed to No Deal with all that may or may not flow from that. Second, seek an extension to the A50 timetable. Now, the EU might not be averse to the latter and you have argued (with some merit) if the UK agreed a permanent CU with the EU, that would likely be a) acceptable to the EU and b) acceptable to a majority in the Commons.

    However, and you'd know this better than I, May has been steadfastly opposed to a CU with the EU so the politics of any shift will be fascinating. Indeed, from where I sit, irrespective of whether a permanent CU is the way out or not, I can't see how this politically ends well for the Conservative Party. Such a change would be seen as a huge betrayal by the ERG and presumably this new anti-EU party with all its big money backers might pick up members and support from Conservative ranks.

    However, as someone else once said, it might be a price worth paying set against the possible consequences of a No Deal.
    If permanent CU and SM elements is to pass it will have to come from the legislature and May then reluctantly accepting it as a last resort to avoid No Deal and the will of Parliament.

    It might boost UKIP or a new Farage party a bit with some defections from Tory Leavers to them but nowhere near as much as revoking Brexit would and of course Corbyn will still have to deal with diehard Remainers who will be annoyed there was no EUref with a Remain option and might give the LDs a try
    Yes, that would kind of shoot Corbyn's fox, wouldn't it?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
  • Loads of the cult do. It's a cunning plan. All polls are Tory lies apparently. Apart from the ones where Labour are in the lead. And apart from the ones where the deficit is the fault of the Blairite traitors
  • Charles said:

    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
    TM has the best 'for everyone'
  • Charles said:

    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
    Bud Light been on the blower telling not to steal their tagline?
  • Dunno. We will see when his new book sales become available as data.
  • viewcode said:

    Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?

    To branch off the discussion for a moment, I have also noticed this. Consider the following:

    * There are many announcements recently of job losses, plausibly blamed on Brexit
    * Macroeconomic data continues positive

    Possible explanations include:

    * Jobs are created elsewhere that outweigh the loss
    * Current growth is driven by EU membership (and will contract after departure) but is still positive
    * Investment is coming in from elsewhere that outweighs the loss
    * The numbers are just wrong
    * Something else

    I don't know which of these are true. I should imagine we'll know further after we Leave.

    We've had a series of high profile redundancies for over a year but actual redundancies are running at a historically low rate:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/redundancies/timeseries/beao/lms
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    viewcode said:

    Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?

    To branch off the discussion for a moment, I have also noticed this. Consider the following:

    * There are many announcements recently of job losses, plausibly blamed on Brexit
    * Macroeconomic data continues positive

    Possible explanations include:

    * Jobs are created elsewhere that outweigh the loss
    * Current growth is driven by EU membership (and will contract after departure) but is still positive
    * Investment is coming in from elsewhere that outweighs the loss
    * The numbers are just wrong
    * Something else

    I don't know which of these are true. I should imagine we'll know further after we Leave.

    It makes perfect sense. Companies are stockpiling. I know of one company which has been running 24 hour shifts 4 days a week to keep up with demand. They only have 10 employees. The poor sods looked knackered last time I saw them. But the boss knows the work won't be there in the near future.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Andrew said:

    Was expecting to be able to dismiss the Opinium based on MoE, but it's 2%. Hrrrrm, odd.

    OK. Theory. Speculative, I know, but here goes.
    Most people are sick to the back teeth of Brexit, so are avoiding all news, if possible.
    Earlier this week there were lurid headlines of Tessies triumph.
    Folk have concluded she has sorted Brexit, and we won't have to hear of it again.
    Huzzah!!!!
    They don't realise, yet, her triumph was uniting the Tory Party around a unicorn.
  • Loads of the cult do. It's a cunning plan. All polls are Tory lies apparently. Apart from the ones where Labour are in the lead. And apart from the ones where the deficit is the fault of the Blairite traitors
    A few deselections will soon sort out this glitch in the polls. It can only be because some Blairite remainers are left in the party, dragging down the rest.
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
  • Charles said:

    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
    No they haven't. Am I missing a joke here?
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
    I don't know how many non-obsessives (unlike me) have actually seen Jezza's performances in HoC in recent couple of weeks or so.

    But they have been woeful.

    Maybe the penny is dropping?

    Or an outlier.

    Time will tell.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2019
    .

    Charles said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
    The days when Labour patriotically backed the UK, its armed forces, and its place in the world, rather the barely camouflaged traitors who lead it today.
    Ernest Bevin would be turning in his grave. Plan Sandown....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    dixiedean said:

    Andrew said:

    Was expecting to be able to dismiss the Opinium based on MoE, but it's 2%. Hrrrrm, odd.

    OK. Theory. Speculative, I know, but here goes.
    Most people are sick to the back teeth of Brexit, so are avoiding all news, if possible.
    Earlier this week there were lurid headlines of Tessies triumph.
    Folk have concluded she has sorted Brexit, and we won't have to hear of it again.
    Huzzah!!!!
    They don't realise, yet, her triumph was uniting the Tory Party around a unicorn.
    That sounds about right. And it has been framed as her fighting the Brexiters as well.
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
    But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
  • Stokes gone. England should be all done and dusted before the end of play.
  • The Conservative party exists in name only. Clearly, they win against a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn, but what can they actually do with the victory?
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
    But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
    Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Andrew said:

    Was expecting to be able to dismiss the Opinium based on MoE, but it's 2%. Hrrrrm, odd.

    OK. Theory. Speculative, I know, but here goes.
    Most people are sick to the back teeth of Brexit, so are avoiding all news, if possible.
    Earlier this week there were lurid headlines of Tessies triumph.
    Folk have concluded she has sorted Brexit, and we won't have to hear of it again.
    Huzzah!!!!
    They don't realise, yet, her triumph was uniting the Tory Party around a unicorn.
    That sounds about right. And it has been framed as her fighting the Brexiters as well.
    And the Europeans. So pleases both sides. The fact we have advanced not an actual jot is incidental.
  • Charles said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
    The days when Labour patriotically backed the UK, its armed forces, and its place in the world, rather the barely camouflaged traitors who lead it today.
    Rather than the Conservatives who have been cutting the armed forces for the past decade, with the apparent aim of reducing the army to the SAS and some lorries in Catterick, or the Conservatives who happily contemplate the loss of both Scotland and Northern Ireland in pursuit of Brexit, which by the way might be unique as government policy acknowledged by the self-same government to be enormously harmful (aside from WW2).
  • AndyJS said:
    Have Sky stopped talking about England batting deep yet?
  • Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2019

    AndyJS said:
    Have Sky stopped talking about England batting deep yet?
    I'm listening on TalkSport 2 so not sure. (It was probably a rhetorical question),
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Have Sky stopped talking about England batting deep yet?
    I'm listening on TalkSport 2 so not sure.
    Is their coverage any good?

    I don't understand why the BBC are wasting money pissing about with their online "cricket social" programme and still sending out a commentary team.
  • Scott_P said:
    Extraordinary to think that Brexit will probably do more to destroy the legacies of Thatcher than the Left ever managed.
  • Charles said:

    Fecking hell.

    We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

    Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

    image

    The Labour Government sought to use [the Marshall Plan] as a general subsidy”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml
    The days when Labour patriotically backed the UK, its armed forces, and its place in the world, rather the barely camouflaged traitors who lead it today.
    Rather than the Conservatives who have been cutting the armed forces for the past decade, with the apparent aim of reducing the army to the SAS and some lorries in Catterick, or the Conservatives who happily contemplate the loss of both Scotland and Northern Ireland in pursuit of Brexit, which by the way might be unique as government policy acknowledged by the self-same government to be enormously harmful (aside from WW2).
    This conservative and many more do not contemplate the loss of Scotland or Northern Ireland. Some ultra brexiteers may with their idiotic views but they are a minority
  • Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
    "Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."

    I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,200
    edited February 2019

    The Conservative party exists in name only. Clearly, they win against a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn, but what can they actually do with the victory?

    The Tories have only won a 4th term once in the last 100 years, in 1992 and that was largely to keep out Kinnock rather than to actually do anything, it will be the same next time if the Tories win given the economic and social reforms and austerity of the Coalition years and Brexit will have been completed and if the Tories win it will be mainly to keep out Corbyn
  • AndyJS said:
    I remember when playing three first class warm up games was considered normal.
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
    But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.

    That’s the problem. It’s all very well - and totally understandable - to oppose Corbyn Labour, but that leaves us with a Tory government that has no ideas to tackle the multiple problems this country has.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,733

    Scott_P said:
    Extraordinary to think that Brexit will probably do more to destroy the legacies of Thatcher than the Left ever managed.
    Her “betrayal” of the unionists might bear some fruit.

    https://youtu.be/9ABewg-fOdI
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
    They'll still need one in the UK for the UK market though... ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
    TM has the best 'for everyone'
    Not inspiring

    For the many not the few was the best slogan of recent years. But could be parodied because of the Labour leadership’s... issues
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,157
    edited February 2019

    Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
    "Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."

    I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.
    Not at all.

    I am reporting the news on the new situation and the zero car tariffs for Japan since yesterday. There are genuine stories of brexit stress but this does not seem to be one
  • Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
    Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
    Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
    They haven't.....The X-Trail is currently made in Japan.

    What we need to hear is if the next-gen Qashqai will be made in Sunderland. The current gen is made there and Europe's best selling SUV.
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.

    This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.

    Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.

    I think this is another rogue.
    I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.
    But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.
    Sure, but it's relative isn't it?
    But its the relative change isn't it ?

    How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.

    I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    "Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."

    I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.

    Maybe the only way to get Leavers to believe is if somebody writes "Yes, it was because of Brexit" in the side of a bus...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,200
    edited February 2019

    It was bollocks then. No way May gets a CU through the Conservative MPs.
    If a CU gets through most Tory MPs will vote against it, a CU will only pass because the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out No Deal vote with Labour, the LDs and SNP for a permanent CU with SM elements over No Deal. That was how Spelman's anti No Deal amendment passed by 318 votes to 310
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2019

    Charles said:

    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”
    No they haven't. Am I missing a joke here?
    I thought it used to be “for the many *not* the few”

    I may have misread it when it flashed up on screen but thought it was quite clever. On its own it’s a less good slogan but cuts off the anti-Semitic parodies (for the many not the Jew) and is close enough no one will notice.
  • Scott_P said:
    They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in Japan

    Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
    Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.
    The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in Japan
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:



    I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”

    No they haven't. Am I missing a joke here?


    I think the point was that the video is saying that there is a division in the country between the Many and the Few, but Labour will unite where the Tories will divide. So they must be for both, as opposed to just being for the other side!
This discussion has been closed.