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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ERG, the new Militant tendency?

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  • notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    And then we move on. Life goes on.

    Move on to what? What is the plan to get us out of the deep hole we have dug for ourselves?
    Same as any hole we ever have. We got through the financial crisis. This isn't going to be some End of Days Armageddon.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Sandpit said:





    Watching England is probably going to be either straight there and straight back, .....

    Just like the team...maybe you could share the plane?

  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Assuming Brady passes. Assuming the EU agrees to re-open negotiations. Assuming the backstop is dropped. Lots there I know, but bear with me.
    What SPECIFIC quid pro quo is the UK prepared to offer for this? Fish,more money, Gibraltar? What, if anything at all will be acceptable to the ERG DUP?
    Or will Johnny Foreigner flee with his tail between his legs when we show them some steel?
    Because if we are unwilling or unable to offer anything at all, then this whole charade is pointless, regardless of the EUs attitude.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    What's their wine selection like?

    :-)

    I was referring to the new 'managed no deal but also a soft brexit' proposal that has apparently united Nicky Morgan and Stevie Baker.

    Sounds on the face of it very exciting. Hoping and praying it's not a unicorn. It's not a unicorn, is it?
    It does appear to be uniting the Conservatives bar a couple of diehards on either side, and the DUP are also on board.

    Dare I suggest that maybe this discussion should have taken place a year ago?
    Um, but what difference would that have made? Didn't we already go to Brussels with various options to replace the backstop and the compromise we ended up with is having it apply to the whole UK so that we avoid an Irish Sea border?
  • Domino’s sold more than 535,000 pizzas in the UK on the Friday before Christmas

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/29/dominos-pizzas-record-uk-sales-profits

    Probably washed down with Lambrini ....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if you are an ERP member who believes in unicorns..
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Same as any hole we ever have. We got through the financial crisis.

    Through coordination and cooperation with all our International partners.

    Oh, fuck...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    We are buggered, but it will bugger them also (to a lesser extent). I dont want a no deal, but the EU is not acting reasonably by expecting a backstop in perpetuity. A compromise or fudge is a crowning feature of most of what the EU does.

    So we are going to No Deal with no plan. Marvellous.

    its the Spurs way
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    edited January 2019

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    I would say it is.

    A backstop that lasts for, say, 3 years is a backstop that lasts for 3 years. Do not see a problem with the language of that.

    However, a backstop that one side can exit unilaterally - THAT is not a backstop.
  • dixiedean said:

    Assuming Brady passes. Assuming the EU agrees to re-open negotiations. Assuming the backstop is dropped. Lots there I know, but bear with me.
    What SPECIFIC quid pro quo is the UK prepared to offer for this? Fish,more money, Gibraltar? What, if anything at all will be acceptable to the ERG DUP?
    Or will Johnny Foreigner flee with his tail between his legs when we show them some steel?
    Because if we are unwilling or unable to offer anything at all, then this whole charade is pointless, regardless of the EUs attitude.

    We ratify the other 99% of the deal they unilaterally wrote including £39 billion of payments.
  • notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    And then we move on. Life goes on.

    Move on to what? What is the plan to get us out of the deep hole we have dug for ourselves?
    Same as any hole we ever have. We got through the financial crisis. This isn't going to be some End of Days Armageddon.

    No, not for you, not for me. But for many people it is going to be hugely, permanently and negatively disruptive. The world got through the financial crisis. We did not do it on our own.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    dixiedean said:

    Assuming Brady passes. Assuming the EU agrees to re-open negotiations. Assuming the backstop is dropped. Lots there I know, but bear with me.
    What SPECIFIC quid pro quo is the UK prepared to offer for this? Fish,more money, Gibraltar? What, if anything at all will be acceptable to the ERG DUP?
    Or will Johnny Foreigner flee with his tail between his legs when we show them some steel?
    Because if we are unwilling or unable to offer anything at all, then this whole charade is pointless, regardless of the EUs attitude.

    Scotland?

    Now where is my tin foil hat when I need it?
  • notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    And then we move on. Life goes on.

    Move on to what? What is the plan to get us out of the deep hole we have dug for ourselves?
    Same as any hole we ever have. We got through the financial crisis. This isn't going to be some End of Days Armageddon.

    No, not for you, not for me. But for many people it is going to be hugely, permanently and negatively disruptive. The world got through the financial crisis. We did not do it on our own.

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    Brexit doesn't mean isolation.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    stodge said:

    Scott_P said:
    And yet they keep saying that the UK must be clear what it wants...
    If the EU are clear the WDA can't be re-negotiated, why are our MPs wasting time on amendments whose main purpose is to seek to renegotiate the WDA?

    I can only assume the Conservative Party will play the "anti-European" card when May is finally humiliated by the EU. The likes of Barnier, Juncker and Weygand will be subject to the usual personal and unpleasant slurs from the usual suspects.
    So we'll see tonight if May has yet another problem - she can't even arrange to get herself humiliated properly ...
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Sandpit said:



    It does appear to be uniting the Conservatives bar a couple of diehards on either side, and the DUP are also on board.

    Dare I suggest that maybe this discussion should have taken place a year ago?


    There does seem to be a momentum towards a coalescence around a compromise.

    Clearly the headbangers on the Tory backbenches (Grieve, Soubry, JRM etc) will never reconcile themselves to respecting the referendum result.

    However, the bulk of remainers in parliament will hopefully see that their road is running out.
  • notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    And then we move on. Life goes on.

    Move on to what? What is the plan to get us out of the deep hole we have dug for ourselves?
    Same as any hole we ever have. We got through the financial crisis. This isn't going to be some End of Days Armageddon.

    No, not for you, not for me. But for many people it is going to be hugely, permanently and negatively disruptive. The world got through the financial crisis. We did not do it on our own.

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    Brexit doesn't mean isolation.

    No Deal does. Good luck getting cooperation with the US past the Irish American lobby.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1090267900676497409
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited January 2019
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    What's their wine selection like?

    :-)

    I was referring to the new 'managed no deal but also a soft brexit' proposal that has apparently united Nicky Morgan and Stevie Baker.

    Sounds on the face of it very exciting. Hoping and praying it's not a unicorn. It's not a unicorn, is it?
    It does appear to be uniting the Conservatives bar a couple of diehards on either side, and the DUP are also on board.

    Dare I suggest that maybe this discussion should have taken place a year ago?
    Dare I suggets that these discussions only take place when people start crapping themselves.... So five minutes to midnight is invariably when the starting gun gets fired....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Assuming Brady passes. Assuming the EU agrees to re-open negotiations. Assuming the backstop is dropped. Lots there I know, but bear with me.
    What SPECIFIC quid pro quo is the UK prepared to offer for this? Fish,more money, Gibraltar? What, if anything at all will be acceptable to the ERG DUP?
    Or will Johnny Foreigner flee with his tail between his legs when we show them some steel?
    Because if we are unwilling or unable to offer anything at all, then this whole charade is pointless, regardless of the EUs attitude.

    We ratify the other 99% of the deal they unilaterally wrote including £39 billion of payments.
    Nothing is agreed till everything is agreed.
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What are the chances of this making the national bulletins tonight?

    https://twitter.com/Claire_Phipps/status/1090290057490165762
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1090267900676497409
    weaken the UK and Europe

    Let's hope they have shared this Earth-shattering assessment with Brussels....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2019
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Assuming Brady passes. Assuming the EU agrees to re-open negotiations. Assuming the backstop is dropped. Lots there I know, but bear with me.
    What SPECIFIC quid pro quo is the UK prepared to offer for this? Fish,more money, Gibraltar? What, if anything at all will be acceptable to the ERG DUP?
    Or will Johnny Foreigner flee with his tail between his legs when we show them some steel?
    Because if we are unwilling or unable to offer anything at all, then this whole charade is pointless, regardless of the EUs attitude.

    We ratify the other 99% of the deal they unilaterally wrote including £39 billion of payments.
    Nothing is agreed till everything is agreed.
    Precisely. If we can agree a change to the backstop that gives the EU everything else in the deal and not nothing. Having no deal doesn't just cost the EU the backstop it costs them £39 billion and everything else they gain from the deal.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:

    What are the chances of this making the national bulletins tonight?

    https://twitter.com/Claire_Phipps/status/1090290057490165762

    Hopefuly in the context of get a sat nav and find another route. This really is tediously petty and pathetic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Scott_P said:
    Her track record of asking people to strengthen her hand isn't good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Assuming Brady passes. Assuming the EU agrees to re-open negotiations. Assuming the backstop is dropped. Lots there I know, but bear with me.
    What SPECIFIC quid pro quo is the UK prepared to offer for this? Fish,more money, Gibraltar? What, if anything at all will be acceptable to the ERG DUP?
    Or will Johnny Foreigner flee with his tail between his legs when we show them some steel?
    Because if we are unwilling or unable to offer anything at all, then this whole charade is pointless, regardless of the EUs attitude.

    We ratify the other 99% of the deal they unilaterally wrote including £39 billion of payments.
    Nothing is agreed till everything is agreed.
    Precisely. If we can agree a change to the backstop that gives the EU everything else in the deal and not nothing. Having no deal doesn't just cost the EU the backstop it costs them £39 billion and everything else they gain from the deal.
    Rational negotiators would of course accept this position as the best they are going to get.

    Rational ones.
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.

    Your faith in people shrugging their shoulders and accepting lower living standards and even worse public services is touching, but I suspect misplaced.

  • Scott_P said:

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1090267900676497409
    Hmm. So it transpires you can't put a cigarette paper between the Trump administration's attitude to Britain in the EU and that of Obama's. Bit of a blow for those Leavers who'd convinced themselves Donald was their man. (He'll be telling us to join the back of the queue next.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Brexiteer pickets outside Pimlico Plumbers.

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1090288845013372929
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:

    What are the chances of this making the national bulletins tonight?

    https://twitter.com/Claire_Phipps/status/1090290057490165762

    Hopefuly in the context of get a sat nav and find another route. This really is tediously petty and pathetic.
    Do they cancel blood donations whenever the French dockers go on strike, or do we instead have a well-practiced system in place to stack lorries waiting to cross the channel, in a way that keeps roads into coastal towns open to local traffic?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
    the shock factor is lessening by the day as our MPs screw up legislation

    expectation are different than they were 6 months ago
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Are people still outside Parliament chanting: What do we want? Brexit! When do we want it? Now! ?

    Or has it got a bit cold for them?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    I have been out and just watching Corbyn's response increases despondency.

    He really is poor and doesn't like inteventions as he cannot think on his feet.

    Looking at the benches behind him there are so many labour mps who would give labour credibility

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1090260281295421442

    When, oh when, are Labour party members going to wake up?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Scott_P said:

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1090267900676497409
    Hmm. So it transpires you can't put a cigarette paper between the Trump administration's attitude to Britain in the EU and that of Obama's. Bit of a blow for those Leavers who'd convinced themselves Donald was their man. (He'll be telling us to join the back of the queue next.)
    or on the other hand it looks even worse for Europhiles to be seeking warm words from the Trump administration
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    The EU didn't come back to the table after the last defeat. Shuffling around with Brady is unlikely to bring them back now.

    Such willing suspension of disbelief by those who advocate a time limited backstop.

    I maintain that there will be a deal. That said the latest from May (considering one of three impossible options) is deeply perplexing.
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that's right. I can't see it passing without Labour support.
    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.
    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
    That's what the defenders of the Venezuelan regime say.
  • Scott_P said:

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1090267900676497409
    weaken the UK and Europe

    Let's hope they have shared this Earth-shattering assessment with Brussels....
    Didn't their President support Brexit?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Same as any hole we ever have. We got through the financial crisis. This isn't going to be some End of Days Armageddon.

    The financial crisis was enormously damaging. Sure we 'got through it' - of course we did, we got through the blitz - but we are nothing like recovered from it all of a decade later.

    Personally, for negative and lasting impact on the UK, I don't think a no deal brexit will come close to the banking crash.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    TOPPING said:

    I maintain that there will be a deal. That said the latest from May (considering one of three impossible options) is deeply perplexing.

    It's becoming harder for her to come up with credible displacement activity as she runs down the clock.
  • It's worth pointing out that the EU aren't simply being inflexible for the sake of it. The problem is that (as I warned would happen, immediately after the disastrous result of the 2017 GE), even if they are more flexible, they can't rely on the UK delivering on any compromise. They are quite explicit about this difficulty, and it's hard to disagree with them:

    But EU officials and diplomats said the Brady amendment, even if heavily supported in the Commons, was too vague for the EU’s heads of state of government to be confident that one particular course of action would receive the full support of parliament for a deal.

    Sources additionally said the EU’s most senior officials – Juncker, and Donald Tusk, the president of the European council – continued to believe nothing could be reasonably done to win round the Democratic Unionist party and the European Research Group of anti-EU Tory MPs, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    That position was reiterated on Monday by the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand. “We need to have a majority that doesn’t just get agreement over hurdle of a meaningful vote by a narrow majority but we need to have a stable majority to ensure the ratification,” she said. “That’s quite a big challenge. There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU – that’s finished.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/eu-rule-out-brexit-renegotiation-brady-amendment-pass
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    TOPPING said:

    The EU didn't come back to the table after the last defeat. Shuffling around with Brady is unlikely to bring them back now.

    Such willing suspension of disbelief by those who advocate a time limited backstop.

    I maintain that there will be a deal. That said the latest from May (considering one of three impossible options) is deeply perplexing.

    Seems to me Brady is just a stunt to allow the tabloids to end up laying all the blame at the feet of the EU for the No Deal chaos and lack of food and meds.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Brexiteer pickets outside Pimlico Plumbers.

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1090288845013372929

    Charming tweet.... :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.

    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
    That's what the defenders of the Venezuelan regime say.
    They have a similar attitude to the health benefits of food shortages too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    GIN1138 said:

    Brexiteer pickets outside Pimlico Plumbers.

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1090288845013372929

    Charming tweet.... :D
    "There is a sense that people are coming together to unite behind the opportunities that lie ahead."
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Jonathan said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.


    Well, since negotiations are over, that's the only deal on the table. It's that or no-deal.

    At some stage MPs voting against it need to take responsibility - they are essentially voting for no deal.
    That is clearly the govt's line after running down the clock. I know they want it to be true, but it isn't. We can delay to find a better approach, have a referendum or revoke. It is not a binary choice.
    But that isn't quite true either.

    Parliament has four choices:
    Revoke, Deal, No Deal or 2nd Referendum
    The country has only three (those noted above)

    That's it.

    And if Parliament don't decide by 29th March, then they get No Deal.

    Anything else (extension or different deal) relies on the EU doing something they've consistently said they won't do/agree to.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kinabalu said:

    Nice header. And Degsy has a taste for posh. Easy to imagine him and Jacob hanging out. Well, almost.

    Hatton's daughters go to gymkhanas so he owns a horsebox. Not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Vince right on the nail:

    Where is the new invention that allows a new way of handling the border? Has it been invented since Chequers?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.

    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
    That's what the defenders of the Venezuelan regime say.
    They have a similar attitude to the health benefits of food shortages too.
    you forgot that there will be no foodbanks since there's no food
  • Scott_P said:

    Indeed. We worked with America and many other nations. Same as we will post Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1090267900676497409
    Hmm. So it transpires you can't put a cigarette paper between the Trump administration's attitude to Britain in the EU and that of Obama's. Bit of a blow for those Leavers who'd convinced themselves Donald was their man. (He'll be telling us to join the back of the queue next.)
    Common sense really. It is why Putin is so keen on Brexit. It is why he put so much effort into influencing social media, but of course that had no impact what-so-ever on the super intelligent beings that voted Leave, they couldn't possibly be influenced could they?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    We are buggered, but it will bugger them also (to a lesser extent). I dont want a no deal, but the EU is not acting reasonably by expecting a backstop in perpetuity. A compromise or fudge is a crowning feature of most of what the EU does.
    But the backstop is not supposed to be in perpetuity. It’s supposed to be until the Brexiteers can pull their “technological solution” to the Irish border out of their pet unicorn’s arse. The fact that no Leaver seems to have any confidence that that will happen and so complain about a “perpetual” backstop speaks volumes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:

    What are the chances of this making the national bulletins tonight?

    https://twitter.com/Claire_Phipps/status/1090290057490165762

    Hopefuly in the context of get a sat nav and find another route. This really is tediously petty and pathetic.
    Do they cancel blood donations whenever the French dockers go on strike, or do we instead have a well-practiced system in place to stack lorries waiting to cross the channel, in a way that keeps roads into coastal towns open to local traffic?
    I stopped giving blood a few years ago. Unless you're able to book an appointment three months in advance, they really don't want your blood.
  • TOPPING said:

    The EU didn't come back to the table after the last defeat. Shuffling around with Brady is unlikely to bring them back now.

    Such willing suspension of disbelief by those who advocate a time limited backstop.

    I maintain that there will be a deal. That said the latest from May (considering one of three impossible options) is deeply perplexing.

    Seems to me Brady is just a stunt to allow the tabloids to end up laying all the blame at the feet of the EU for the No Deal chaos and lack of food and meds.

    Yep - it's all about the blame game now. Not that it helps us actually deal with the shit-storm No Deal will be.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Foremain, Hitler was keen on vegetarianism.

    Stalin helped teach Kaganovich to improve his literacy.

    That doesn't make parsnips or reading evil.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    "Mr Varadkar said the country is “in a good position” to borrow from the markets if necessary."

    Those will be the markets in London then.... Another silver lining to No Deal Brexit.
  • It's worth pointing out that the EU aren't simply being inflexible for the sake of it. The problem is that (as I warned would happen, immediately after the disastrous result of the 2017 GE), even if they are more flexible, they can't rely on the UK delivering on any compromise. They are quite explicit about this difficulty, and it's hard to disagree with them

    The point of the backstop is to ensure that NI stays either in the SM and CU forever, or that it remains so closely aligned as to be practically indistinguishable, whatever the rUK does.

    There is no wording that will change that fundamental reality. Even if by some miracle the EU agreed to reopen the WA, they'd still demand a guarantee of the de facto if not de jure regulatory and customs annexation of NI. And the ERG and the DUP could rightly never accept that.
  • It's pretty clear that the Irish will not do anything to disrupt the border after No Deal. It is also pretty obvious why they would not say this in advance.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    "Mr Varadkar said the country is “in a good position” to borrow from the markets if necessary."

    Those will be the markets in London then.... Another silver lining to No Deal Brexit.
    they wont be borrowing if Mrs Merkel says they cant
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Can't see the Brady amendment passing. The Labour leavers (Flint, Spellar etc) some point are going to have to decide what amendment they can support because at the moment they look like the ones who hold all the aces. I'm not quite sure what other than party loyalty is stopping them supporting Brady because it seems to be the most sane approach out there.
  • TOPPING said:

    The EU didn't come back to the table after the last defeat. Shuffling around with Brady is unlikely to bring them back now.

    Such willing suspension of disbelief by those who advocate a time limited backstop.

    I maintain that there will be a deal. That said the latest from May (considering one of three impossible options) is deeply perplexing.

    Seems to me Brady is just a stunt to allow the tabloids to end up laying all the blame at the feet of the EU for the No Deal chaos and lack of food and meds.

    Yep - it's all about the blame game now. Not that it helps us actually deal with the shit-storm No Deal will be.

    Victimhood is all part of the psychosis of nationalism. Blame others, sew further division, keep the spiral of hate running as much as possible. Putin is an expert at it. Oh, did I mention Putin again, the Leaver's friend, supporter and benefactor?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    GIN1138 said:

    Are people still outside Parliament chanting: What do we want? Brexit! When do we want it? Now! ?

    They have gotten more sophisticated now, having followed all of the various amendments. What I could hear ringing out was:

    Whadda we want? ... A smooth and orderly exit from the European Union!

    When do we wannit? ... March 29th ideally, but any time this year will do.

    So, a hint of compromise there.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    rpjs said:

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    We are buggered, but it will bugger them also (to a lesser extent). I dont want a no deal, but the EU is not acting reasonably by expecting a backstop in perpetuity. A compromise or fudge is a crowning feature of most of what the EU does.
    But the backstop is not supposed to be in perpetuity. It’s supposed to be until the Brexiteers can pull their “technological solution” to the Irish border out of their pet unicorn’s arse. The fact that no Leaver seems to have any confidence that that will happen and so complain about a “perpetual” backstop speaks volumes.
    We want to leave so that we can negotiate free trade deals but have zero confidence we can negotiate free trade deals.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    It's pretty clear that the Irish will not do anything to disrupt the border after No Deal. It is also pretty obvious why they would not say this in advance.

    Varadkar has simply painted himself in to a corner

    hes now starting to get pressure at home from all sides

    really he should have settled back in Septmeber
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    It's worth pointing out that the EU aren't simply being inflexible for the sake of it. The problem is that (as I warned would happen, immediately after the disastrous result of the 2017 GE), even if they are more flexible, they can't rely on the UK delivering on any compromise. They are quite explicit about this difficulty, and it's hard to disagree with them:

    But EU officials and diplomats said the Brady amendment, even if heavily supported in the Commons, was too vague for the EU’s heads of state of government to be confident that one particular course of action would receive the full support of parliament for a deal.

    Sources additionally said the EU’s most senior officials – Juncker, and Donald Tusk, the president of the European council – continued to believe nothing could be reasonably done to win round the Democratic Unionist party and the European Research Group of anti-EU Tory MPs, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    That position was reiterated on Monday by the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand. “We need to have a majority that doesn’t just get agreement over hurdle of a meaningful vote by a narrow majority but we need to have a stable majority to ensure the ratification,” she said. “That’s quite a big challenge. There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU – that’s finished.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/eu-rule-out-brexit-renegotiation-brady-amendment-pass

    Exactly. What little trust the EU may have had in TM as a negotiating partner will have been destroyed by her behaviour today. If she can trash a deal she recommended as the only practical way forward less than a fortnight ago why on earth would they believe she could deliver on anything else that they might offer?
  • Mr. Foremain, Hitler was keen on vegetarianism.

    Stalin helped teach Kaganovich to improve his literacy.

    That doesn't make parsnips or reading evil.

    please explain your point Mr Dancer...
  • Exactly. What little trust the EU may have had in TM as a negotiating partner will have been destroyed by her behaviour today. If she can trash a deal she recommended as the only practical way forward less than a fortnight ago why on earth would they believe she could deliver on anything else that they might offer?

    It's not her behaviour that is the problem. She has negotiated and concluded a written agreement satisfactory to the EU and to the UK government.
  • I expect supplies of whitewash will be running low in Scotland soon enough.

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1090277635584860161
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    It's pretty clear that the Irish will not do anything to disrupt the border after No Deal. It is also pretty obvious why they would not say this in advance.

    Varadkar has simply painted himself in to a corner

    hes now starting to get pressure at home from all sides

    really he should have settled back in Septmeber
    Settled for what? There's nothing he could have done to get the withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.

    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only one available. There is one way, and one way only, of leaving in an orderly fashion and that is the deal (or some slighly tweaked version of it if the EU play ball). So of course the government keeps pushing for it. The rest is absolute fantasy, unless we revoke Article 50, which looks political fantasy given the parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
    That's what the defenders of the Venezuelan regime say.
    They have a similar attitude to the health benefits of food shortages too.
    you forgot that there will be no foodbanks since there's no food
    There will be. Dogs, cats, mice, rats, wild fungus.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Brom said:

    Can't see the Brady amendment passing. The Labour leavers (Flint, Spellar etc) some point are going to have to decide what amendment they can support because at the moment they look like the ones who hold all the aces. I'm not quite sure what other than party loyalty is stopping them supporting Brady because it seems to be the most sane approach out there.

    Going back to renegotiate a deal you designed in the first place is a sane approach?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Brom said:

    Can't see the Brady amendment passing. The Labour leavers (Flint, Spellar etc) some point are going to have to decide what amendment they can support because at the moment they look like the ones who hold all the aces. I'm not quite sure what other than party loyalty is stopping them supporting Brady because it seems to be the most sane approach out there.

    Market agrees with you - it thinks that Cooper will pass but Brady will not.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I expect supplies of whitewash will be running low in Scotland soon enough.

    I wondered if the other parties might boycott the committee
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:

    What are the chances of this making the national bulletins tonight?

    https://twitter.com/Claire_Phipps/status/1090290057490165762

    Hopefuly in the context of get a sat nav and find another route. This really is tediously petty and pathetic.
    Do they cancel blood donations whenever the French dockers go on strike, or do we instead have a well-practiced system in place to stack lorries waiting to cross the channel, in a way that keeps roads into coastal towns open to local traffic?
    I stopped giving blood a few years ago. Unless you're able to book an appointment three months in advance, they really don't want your blood.
    Really, you have to book an appointment to give blood these days?

    Clearly they must have more than enough of the stuff to go around, otherwise they’d be bending over backwards to accommodate anyone who wished to attend.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Foremain, an unpleasant person liking something doesn't necessarily mean the something is wrong.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    Thanks for tweeting the views of blogger Ian Dunt. Really useful. Lol.
  • TOPPING said:

    rpjs said:

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    It is all about the blame game now, isn't it?

    The Tories undoubtedly hope the EU will be blamed for No Deal. And maybe the EU will be. But it is not very clear how that actually helps us deal with a No Deal. So, what is the plan?

    It is also pretty clear that when we do depart Ireland will not do anything to change the border. That will help Ireland, of course. But how does it help us? Our problems are not there, but elsewhere in all kinds of ways.

    In short, a No Deal departure puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are now.

    Wonderful!

    If the only thing that stops a deal happening is the refusal to not make the backstop a permanent feature of the agreement, then quite rightly the EU will be to blame.

    They screwed down a deal, used their unity to give us a punishment beating. And the British Parliament said no. Too cocky by half.

    Bring it on.

    Yep, bring it on. And then what?

    We are buggered, but it will bugger them also (to a lesser extent). I dont want a no deal, but the EU is not acting reasonably by expecting a backstop in perpetuity. A compromise or fudge is a crowning feature of most of what the EU does.
    But the backstop is not supposed to be in perpetuity. It’s supposed to be until the Brexiteers can pull their “technological solution” to the Irish border out of their pet unicorn’s arse. The fact that no Leaver seems to have any confidence that that will happen and so complain about a “perpetual” backstop speaks volumes.
    We want to leave so that we can negotiate free trade deals but have zero confidence we can negotiate free trade deals.
    "What's this about wanting to be a free trading nation Britain?"
    "I want to have free trade deals"
    "But you can't have free trade deals"
    "Don't you oppress me"
  • Mr. Foremain, an unpleasant person liking something doesn't necessarily mean the something is wrong.

    Ah, ok. It is not just that he likes it, it is that he knows it will make Britain weaker. Simples!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    What does it matter, it was a unicorn anyway.

    Maybe not, it could be a hook on which to hang a fudge, if both the EU and parliament are actually serious about avoiding no-deal. That's a big 'if', though.
    Is the government serious about avoiding no deal? That's the big question. We will need them to budge at some point and stop going back to the deal - the one thing comprehensively defeated.
    The EU tells us the deal on the table is the only oe parliamentary numbers.
    A time limit on the backstop is the only way. We shouldnt even be needing the backstop, never mind a time limited one. To go to the wire for that might be the greatest collective diplomatic failure since the second world war.

    We will not forget a No Deal, and a close future relationship will be nothing but a remote possibility.

    A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.

    It is for the period of the backstop. Trapping a nation within a customs union which it will have no influence on is not leaving. Make the backstop time limited or we have no deal. That is going to be the outcome of the situation.

    You want to bet? No Deal puts us in an even weaker negotiating position than we are in already.

    Not if it removes the permanent backstop it doesn't. And the longer we stay in a no deal scenario the more normalised and less damaging it will be.

    Good luck with that!!

    It's true. The biggest risk of no deal is the sudden shock.

    As time goes by the shock will wear off. It will be our new normal just as Canada and USA being separate nations is normal.
    That's what the defenders of the Venezuelan regime say.
    They have a similar attitude to the health benefits of food shortages too.
    you forgot that there will be no foodbanks since there's no food
    There will be. Dogs, cats, mice, rats, wild fungus.
    no, not even grass since we import that from the EU
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eek said:

    Brom said:

    Can't see the Brady amendment passing. The Labour leavers (Flint, Spellar etc) some point are going to have to decide what amendment they can support because at the moment they look like the ones who hold all the aces. I'm not quite sure what other than party loyalty is stopping them supporting Brady because it seems to be the most sane approach out there.

    Going back to renegotiate a deal you designed in the first place is a sane approach?
    It's saner than kicking the can down the road and not even looking for compromise surely? In what way is Cooper's helping to agree any sort of deal? I would say her motion is destructive in almost every way. At least if Brady were to pass you'd know what it would take for a deal to be struck, Merkel would take a much longer look at any new proposals than a quoted EU 'spokesperson.'
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    The point of the backstop is to ensure that NI stays either in the SM and CU forever, or that it remains so closely aligned as to be practically indistinguishable, whatever the rUK does.

    There is no wording that will change that fundamental reality. Even if by some miracle the EU agreed to reopen the WA, they'd still demand a guarantee of the de facto if not de jure regulatory and customs annexation of NI. And the ERG and the DUP could rightly never accept that.

    But the ERG know for an almost fact that a high-tech solution for the border will be possible.

    So why not unblock the exit hatch from the dungeon, scramble out of there, and then get cracking on delivering that?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Exactly. What little trust the EU may have had in TM as a negotiating partner will have been destroyed by her behaviour today. If she can trash a deal she recommended as the only practical way forward less than a fortnight ago why on earth would they believe she could deliver on anything else that they might offer?

    It's not her behaviour that is the problem. She has negotiated and concluded a written agreement satisfactory to the EU and to the UK government.
    Also Barnier had multiple meetings with Corbyn et al, so he should have asked them the question of "what will you agree and what are your red lines?"

    The WDA not getting approval by MP's should be no surprise to the EU and member countries.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    It's pretty clear that the Irish will not do anything to disrupt the border after No Deal. It is also pretty obvious why they would not say this in advance.

    Varadkar has simply painted himself in to a corner

    hes now starting to get pressure at home from all sides

    really he should have settled back in Septmeber
    Settled for what? There's nothing he could have done to get the withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons.
    I pointed out over a year ago varadkar could have sorted the whole thing out quietly with a UK RoI working group and avoided the grief, but he didnt

    heart of stone etc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    In defence of Theresa May (words that come as an unexpected and refreshing surprise to my fingertips), she has taken account of the crushing defeat that the deal faced two weeks ago and come up with something that is aimed at salvaging something consistent with leaving the EU with a deal, even if it is heavily odds against. I don't think she's gone about it the right way but she has at least tried something.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thanks for tweeting the views of blogger Ian Dunt. Really useful. Lol.
    Dun't matter what Ian thinks
  • It's pretty clear that the Irish will not do anything to disrupt the border after No Deal. It is also pretty obvious why they would not say this in advance.

    Varadkar has simply painted himself in to a corner

    hes now starting to get pressure at home from all sides

    really he should have settled back in Septmeber

    He has a very, very easy way out. Unfortunately, we do not.

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thanks for tweeting the views of blogger Ian Dunt. Really useful. Lol.
    Dun't matter what Ian thinks
    I think he must be Scott P's best mate. You might as well quote the Brexit girl who wears a cape or one of the yellow vests for all the nonsense Dunt talks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Exactly. What little trust the EU may have had in TM as a negotiating partner will have been destroyed by her behaviour today. If she can trash a deal she recommended as the only practical way forward less than a fortnight ago why on earth would they believe she could deliver on anything else that they might offer?

    It's not her behaviour that is the problem. She has negotiated and concluded a written agreement satisfactory to the EU and to the UK government.
    Yep - parliament is acting like some jumped up in house lawyer/corporate purchasing department demanding a change to the Ts and Cs of a contract after you thought you'd signed it.
  • kinabalu said:

    The point of the backstop is to ensure that NI stays either in the SM and CU forever, or that it remains so closely aligned as to be practically indistinguishable, whatever the rUK does.

    There is no wording that will change that fundamental reality. Even if by some miracle the EU agreed to reopen the WA, they'd still demand a guarantee of the de facto if not de jure regulatory and customs annexation of NI. And the ERG and the DUP could rightly never accept that.

    But the ERG know for an almost fact that a high-tech solution for the border will be possible.

    So why not unblock the exit hatch from the dungeon, scramble out of there, and then get cracking on delivering that?
    If they know there is a high tech solution (which surprises me as none of them strike me as exactly being up to date on tech), then why do they have a problem with the backstop? If the tech solution is coming they have nothing to fear form it. It is either because they are thick (likely), deliberately disingenuous (very likely) or both (ever closer likely).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    It's pretty clear that the Irish will not do anything to disrupt the border after No Deal. It is also pretty obvious why they would not say this in advance.

    Varadkar has simply painted himself in to a corner

    hes now starting to get pressure at home from all sides

    really he should have settled back in Septmeber

    He has a very, very easy way out. Unfortunately, we do not.

    he no longer has , If he holds his position he;ll get thumped for any disruption, if he changes hell get thumped by FF and SF

    he has an election coming up TM doesnt
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Remainers really thought the Brady approach had no chance of moving the EU towards Brexit they would abstain and let the EU turn it down.

    That they are so keen to strangle it at birth is informative.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kinabalu said:

    The point of the backstop is to ensure that NI stays either in the SM and CU forever, or that it remains so closely aligned as to be practically indistinguishable, whatever the rUK does.

    There is no wording that will change that fundamental reality. Even if by some miracle the EU agreed to reopen the WA, they'd still demand a guarantee of the de facto if not de jure regulatory and customs annexation of NI. And the ERG and the DUP could rightly never accept that.

    But the ERG know for an almost fact that a high-tech solution for the border will be possible.

    So why not unblock the exit hatch from the dungeon, scramble out of there, and then get cracking on delivering that?
    The high tech solution requires electronic customs declarations and checks but away from the border. It is Varadkar that has said he will not even accept electronic customs declarations, to him nothing must change. It is impossible to have exactly the same procedure as now, unless the UK is in the SM and CU.
This discussion has been closed.