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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Desperate times. A new way out of the Brexit impasse

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737

    I've sent an email to Grieve asking him why he voted for Article 50, and urged him to just admit that it was either dishonest or ignorant. I doubt I'll get a proper reply, but if I do I'll post it here.

    Article 50 always had three possible conclusions:

    Deal
    No deal
    Revocation

    For Remainers to vote to invoke it was a smart tactical decision because it shut the trapdoor after the Brexiteers foolishly jumped in.
    So you reckon dishonest. I think you're probably right.
    You might more usefully ask why David Davis voted to invoke it without a plan agreed across government.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    The current disarray in parliament in less about the form Brexit takes, if it is not cancelled altogether, but about who controls it. If May recognised that she had lost control of Parliament and resigned that would be a step in the right direction. A new leader could then withdraw the whip from those who have no respect for the referendum upon which they were elected like Grieve, Soubry and Greeningr.

    A new leader with no Commons majority, depending on a minor.
    They are not following the whip now and the Tories already rely on the DUP. Don’t see what your problem is.
    Not following the whip and having the whip withdrawn are two very different matters
    Indeed they are which is why I suggested it.
    Whether I agree with Dominic Grieve or not, I think he is a man of substance and honourable too.
    Great - I think he is neither.
    Predictable - he certainly is running rings round ERG
    He is certainly running rings around May - with the collusion of Bercow, whom I assume you also admire. The ERG aren’t great but them then they are not trying to subvert the Gov and parliamentary procedure, unlike Grieve.
    Assumptions are not wise. Bercow is obnoxious, self important and too political for his position and he should have resigned over the ongoing bullying scandal. He just adds to distrust and should go now
    He is Grieve’s partner in crime in trying to subvert the Gov. Admiring Grieve but not the man who makes his Machiavellian machinations possible is illogical.
    Where did I say I admire Grieve.

    I think he is as bad as Johnson as I said earlier but the difference is Grieve has the political and technical knowledge to fight his cause which is lacking in Boris and the ERG

    Bercow fails for me on many counts
    Grieve has a predominantly Remain supporting parliament and the speaker on his side.

    Neither Boris nor the ERG are trying to seize control of Parliament from the Gov, unlike Grieve.
    They would if they could, they do not have the numbers
    Conjecture.
  • Nigelb said:

    The current disarray in parliament in less about the form Brexit takes, if it is not cancelled altogether, but about who controls it. If May recognised that she had lost control of Parliament and resigned that would be a step in the right direction. A new leader could then withdraw the whip from those who have no respect for the referendum upon which they were elected like Grieve, Soubry and Greening. Unencumbered by bandit Remainers and the baggage of May’s disastrous deal, a new leader has a chance to cobble something together that might satisfy no-one but at least achieves some common ground.

    The best option would be a simple FTA akin to Canada’s but that seems unlikely to be acceptable to the EU because it does not entrap Britain in vassal status which is clearly their preferred option if they can’t derail Brexit altogether.

    A new leader with no Commons majority, depending on a minor, regional party to keep the party in office, might not be so cavalier as you about withdrawing the whip from its MPs.
    They are not following the whip now and the Tories already rely on the DUP. Don’t see what your problem is.
    Not following the whip and having the whip withdrawn are two very different matters
    Indeed they are which is why I suggested it.
    I am in the position that if Dominic Grieve should have the whip withdrawn so should Boris Johnson

    They are both as bad as each other
    You may not like his principles, but Grieve at least has some.

    He is very clever and seems to be the darling of remain but his principles must be questioned when he voted for A50 and stood on the manifesto
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Scott_P said:

    Boris is however, different from Grieve, in that he is not trying to seize control of the parliamentary agenda and subvert his own Gov.

    No BoZo seized the entire political agenda to subvert his own government and further his own career
    Nonsense.
    Of course he did. Boris only cares about Boris. If I lived in Uxbridge I would campaign to see him booted out. And I am a conservative member. And by the way my wife, who is also a member, would beat me to it
    Great - but you don’t, so it’s irrelevant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I've sent an email to Grieve asking him why he voted for Article 50, and urged him to just admit that it was either dishonest or ignorant. I doubt I'll get a proper reply, but if I do I'll post it here.

    Article 50 always had three possible conclusions:

    Deal
    No deal
    Revocation

    For Remainers to vote to invoke it was a smart tactical decision because it shut the trapdoor after the Brexiteers foolishly jumped in.
    So you reckon dishonest. I think you're probably right.
    You might more usefully ask why David Davis voted to invoke it without a plan agreed across government.
    Yes, that was a big problem. Even this time last year they did not have a plan. That is one of the more unforgivable sins that can be laid directly at May.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have rather a good visual joke to share. How does one do this?

    Thanks.

    You could tweet it and post a link to your tweet.

    Or put the picture on a URL somewhere and post a link using the image embedder tool.
    Thanks.

    Unfortunately I am not on Twitter and the rest is incomprehensible......

    Go here https://imggmi.com

    Upload your pic

    Post the jpg link it gives you in a comment
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have rather a good visual joke to share. How does one do this?

    Thanks.

    You could tweet it and post a link to your tweet.

    Or put the picture on a URL somewhere and post a link using the image embedder tool.
    Thanks.

    Unfortunately I am not on Twitter and the rest is incomprehensible......

    I think that should be 'fortunately'.

    One of the most memorable lines by David Cameron related to that and he was correct
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285

    Nigelb said:

    The current disarray in parliament in less about the form Brexit takes, if it is not cancelled altogether, but about who controls it. If May recognised that she had lost control of Parliament and resigned that would be a step in the right direction. A new leader could then withdraw the whip from those who have no respect for the referendum upon which they were elected like Grieve, Soubry and Greening. Unencumbered by bandit Remainers and the baggage of May’s disastrous deal, a new leader has a chance to cobble something together that might satisfy no-one but at least achieves some common ground.

    The best option would be a simple FTA akin to Canada’s but that seems unlikely to be acceptable to the EU because it does not entrap Britain in vassal status which is clearly their preferred option if they can’t derail Brexit altogether.

    A new leader with no Commons majority, depending on a minor, regional party to keep the party in office, might not be so cavalier as you about withdrawing the whip from its MPs.
    They are not following the whip now and the Tories already rely on the DUP. Don’t see what your problem is.
    Not following the whip and having the whip withdrawn are two very different matters
    Indeed they are which is why I suggested it.
    I am in the position that if Dominic Grieve should have the whip withdrawn so should Boris Johnson

    They are both as bad as each other
    You may not like his principles, but Grieve at least has some.

    He is very clever and seems to be the darling of remain but his principles must be questioned when he voted for A50 and stood on the manifesto
    It would be doing the English language some brutality to described Grieve as anyone’s darling.
  • Scott_P said:

    Boris is however, different from Grieve, in that he is not trying to seize control of the parliamentary agenda and subvert his own Gov.

    No BoZo seized the entire political agenda to subvert his own government and further his own career
    Nonsense.
    Of course he did. Boris only cares about Boris. If I lived in Uxbridge I would campaign to see him booted out. And I am a conservative member. And by the way my wife, who is also a member, would beat me to it
    Great - but you don’t, so it’s irrelevant.
    My son and his partner did before they emigrated to New Zealand
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?
  • I've sent an email to Grieve asking him why he voted for Article 50, and urged him to just admit that it was either dishonest or ignorant. I doubt I'll get a proper reply, but if I do I'll post it here.

    Article 50 always had three possible conclusions:

    Deal
    No deal
    Revocation

    For Remainers to vote to invoke it was a smart tactical decision because it shut the trapdoor after the Brexiteers foolishly jumped in.
    So you reckon dishonest. I think you're probably right.
    You might more usefully ask why David Davis voted to invoke it without a plan agreed across government.
    Davis isn't, so far as I remember, against no deal. Let alone utterly against brexit, as so many of those who voted to trigger it have proven to be. They're dishonest or ignorant.
  • kle4 said:

    I've sent an email to Grieve asking him why he voted for Article 50, and urged him to just admit that it was either dishonest or ignorant. I doubt I'll get a proper reply, but if I do I'll post it here.

    Article 50 always had three possible conclusions:

    Deal
    No deal
    Revocation

    For Remainers to vote to invoke it was a smart tactical decision because it shut the trapdoor after the Brexiteers foolishly jumped in.
    So you reckon dishonest. I think you're probably right.
    You might more usefully ask why David Davis voted to invoke it without a plan agreed across government.
    Yes, that was a big problem. Even this time last year they did not have a plan. That is one of the more unforgivable sins that can be laid directly at May.
    The blame for A50 is shared by each and every mp who voted for A50. Remember 114 did not
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The current disarray in parliament in less about the form Brexit takes, if it is not cancelled altogether, but about who controls it. If May recognised that she had lost control of Parliament and resigned that would be a step in the right direction. A new leader could then withdraw the whip from those who have no respect for the referendum upon which they were elected like Grieve, Soubry and Greening. Unencumbered by bandit Remainers and the baggage of May’s disastrous deal, a new leader has a chance to cobble something together that might satisfy no-one but at least achieves some common ground.

    The best option would be a simple FTA akin to Canada’s but that seems unlikely to be acceptable to the EU because it does not entrap Britain in vassal status which is clearly their preferred option if they can’t derail Brexit altogether.

    A new leader with no Commons majority, depending on a minor, regional party to keep the party in office, might not be so cavalier as you about withdrawing the whip from its MPs.
    They are not following the whip now and the Tories already rely on the DUP. Don’t see what your problem is.
    Not following the whip and having the whip withdrawn are two very different matters
    Indeed they are which is why I suggested it.
    I am in the position that if Dominic Grieve should have the whip withdrawn so should Boris Johnson

    They are both as bad as each other
    You may not like his principles, but Grieve at least has some.

    He is very clever and seems to be the darling of remain but his principles must be questioned when he voted for A50 and stood on the manifesto
    It would be doing the English language some brutality to described Grieve as anyone’s darling.
    Good point
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737

    I've sent an email to Grieve asking him why he voted for Article 50, and urged him to just admit that it was either dishonest or ignorant. I doubt I'll get a proper reply, but if I do I'll post it here.

    Article 50 always had three possible conclusions:

    Deal
    No deal
    Revocation

    For Remainers to vote to invoke it was a smart tactical decision because it shut the trapdoor after the Brexiteers foolishly jumped in.
    So you reckon dishonest. I think you're probably right.
    You might more usefully ask why David Davis voted to invoke it without a plan agreed across government.
    Davis isn't, so far as I remember, against no deal. Let alone utterly against brexit, as so many of those who voted to trigger it have proven to be. They're dishonest or ignorant.
    Davis is against having to do any work. To him the threat of no deal is merely a tool to force the other side to do the work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Why on earth did the brains of brexit and remainer favourite Grieve vote for Article 50? Was there any brexit deal he would have been happy with? Or had he just not read, or understood, what he was voting for?

    I suspect the vast majority of the 498 mps voting for A50 had no idea no deal became default
    Donald Tusk said publicly that it was revocable several months before MPs voted.
    That is very different from the default position. Deal or decision to revoke or extend are all possible but if no one does something to agree one of those positions out we go. It amazes me how the support for no deal is rising and should be a sober warning to mps to get their act together
    It’s not rising. Polls always showed high support for it, especially post-Chequers when it became clear what a realistic Brexit deal would look like.
    Yet virtually no polls show No Deal ahead of the Deal head to head and as far as I am aware only Deltapoll has shown No Deal beating Remain head to head.

    About 35% to 40% back No Deal but that is well short of the 50%+1 Leave needs to preserve for a majority. Leave won with 52%, at least a fifth of those Leave voters would likely switch to Remain if No Deal was on the cards having only voted Leave on the basis of a trade deal with the EU of some form. Hence No Deal likely means Brexit is no longer sustainable in the long-term as it no longer has majority support
  • tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    FAO Viewcode

    just following on from what Casino Royal said at the end of the last thread. You have been unfailingly reasonable and decent throughout the debates of the last few weeks. You certainly have nothing to apologise for.

    That's very gracious of you, @Richard_Tyndall , thank you. And you also.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Scott_P said:

    Boris is however, different from Grieve, in that he is not trying to seize control of the parliamentary agenda and subvert his own Gov.

    No BoZo seized the entire political agenda to subvert his own government and further his own career
    Nonsense.
    Of course he did. Boris only cares about Boris. If I lived in Uxbridge I would campaign to see him booted out. And I am a conservative member. And by the way my wife, who is also a member, would beat me to it
    Great - but you don’t, so it’s irrelevant.
    My son and his partner did before they emigrated to New Zealand
    Great but he’s still there and they don’t count now so also irrelevant.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
    A member of the public made the claim, and I think I've seen it said on here - but some opinion polling would be useful.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We don't need more time.

    Parliament has voted to leave on March 29th.

    Parliament having rejected May's deal, has voted for WTO deal by default.

    The Government should now focus on negotiating side deals around a WTO deal.

    Adding “if the House disagrees they always have the right to replace the government” that would be perfect on Monday
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    That's the plan?!

    I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?

    What a bunch of incompetents.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?
  • Sky programme just now

    Should we delay leaving the EU

    Yes 46% No 54%

    Fridays national poll was

    50/50
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019

    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    I'd just be happy to c a plan b fore it all goes to hell in a handcart.
  • Sky programme just now

    Should we delay leaving the EU

    Yes 46% No 54%

    Fridays national poll was

    50/50

    Is that new figure a proper poll?
  • Scott_P said:

    Boris is however, different from Grieve, in that he is not trying to seize control of the parliamentary agenda and subvert his own Gov.

    No BoZo seized the entire political agenda to subvert his own government and further his own career
    Nonsense.
    Of course he did. Boris only cares about Boris. If I lived in Uxbridge I would campaign to see him booted out. And I am a conservative member. And by the way my wife, who is also a member, would beat me to it
    Great - but you don’t, so it’s irrelevant.
    My son and his partner did before they emigrated to New Zealand
    Great but he’s still there and they don’t count now so also irrelevant.
    Actually he lives in Vancouver now
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    kle4 said:
    “Crush the saboteurs” was the plan all along. She just didn’t admit they were in her own party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Sky programme just now

    Should we delay leaving the EU

    Yes 46% No 54%

    Fridays national poll was

    50/50

    Delay to do what?

    Without clarification on that it is a meaningless question.
  • When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    Same as A and B !!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    kle4 said:
    “Crush the saboteurs” was the plan all along. She just didn’t admit they were in her own party.
    Well, matters are now truly clogged up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    There is no Plan C, Grieve and Bercow and Cooper take over the agenda from next week
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    There is no Plan C, Grieve and Bercow and Cooper take over the agenda from next week
    Well I hope they do something productive with it.
  • kle4 said:

    Sky programme just now

    Should we delay leaving the EU

    Yes 46% No 54%

    Fridays national poll was

    50/50

    Delay to do what?

    Without clarification on that it is a meaningless question.
    Not watching so I cannot say
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
    A member of the public made the claim, and I think I've seen it said on here - but some opinion polling would be useful.
    I have said it on here. I have met a few who think no deal means, in effect, no change of any kind. Some may think that means Remaining, but others are very much of the opinion it means we leave the EU, with none of the drawbacks from the deal. We leave, but keep all the benefits. No idea how widespread this view is, but it is definitely out there.
    At least one said they favoured No Deal, because Brexit has caused too much change and disruption already.
  • Sky programme just now

    Should we delay leaving the EU

    Yes 46% No 54%

    Fridays national poll was

    50/50

    Is that new figure a proper poll?
    It is part of a live audience poll on Sky from Leeds
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    del.

    A new leader with no Commons majority, depending on a minor, regional party to keep the party in office, might not be so cavalier as you about withdrawing the whip from its MPs.
    They are not following the whip now and the Tories already rely on the DUP. Don’t see what your problem is.
    Not following the whip and having the whip withdrawn are two very different matters
    Indeed they are which is why I suggested it.
    I am in the position that if Dominic Grieve should have the whip withdrawn so should Boris Johnson

    They are both as bad as each other
    You may not like his principles, but Grieve at least has some.

    He is very clever and seems to be the darling of remain but his principles must be questioned when he voted for A50 and stood on the manifesto
    It would be doing the English language some brutality to described Grieve as anyone’s darling.
    Good point
    The two main parties operate a market duopoly and do jolly well out of it. Hardly anyone can pursue a political career by joining any other party. No wonder Grieve, who's only 63, feared disobeying the hierarchy of his party. It can end careers.

    If he's removed, I hope he gets a peerage and comments in due course on the conflict he faced between his conscience and his career.

    Clarke did the right thing on A50 but is near the end of his career anyway. So he's free to vote however he likes. Also he has a history of being outspoken and standing up to bullies

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/05/ken-clarke-on-brexit-ive-never-seen-anything-as-mad-or-chaotic-as-this.
  • ydoethur said:

    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    I'd just be happy to c a plan b fore it all goes to hell in a handcart.
    That is really good
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Sky programme just now

    Should we delay leaving the EU

    Yes 46% No 54%

    Fridays national poll was

    50/50

    The first poll was a poll of the Leeds studio audience only just to clarify
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's the plan?!

    I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?

    What a bunch of incompetents.
    I know they can't back down, but the Irish position on the backstop is still ridiculous unless they genuinely believe that no deal won't happen.

    They've got themselves into a position where the thing preventing a deal from happening is something that won't exist in the event of no deal. It would make perfect sense if the alternative to a deal was remain. It makes no sense if the alternative is no deal Brexit.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Scott_P said:

    Boris is however, different from Grieve, in that he is not trying to seize control of the parliamentary agenda and subvert his own Gov.

    No BoZo seized the entire political agenda to subvert his own government and further his own career
    Nonsense.
    Of course he did. Boris only cares about Boris. If I lived in Uxbridge I would campaign to see him booted out. And I am a conservative member. And by the way my wife, who is also a member, would beat me to it
    Great - but you don’t, so it’s irrelevant.
    My son and his partner did before they emigrated to New Zealand
    Great but he’s still there and they don’t count now so also irrelevant.
    Actually he lives in Vancouver now
    Beautiful city, one of my favourites, but still irrelevant
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    I'd just be happy to c a plan b fore it all goes to hell in a handcart.
    That is really good
    Like Mark Twain, I can live for two months on a good compliment.
  • The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
    A member of the public made the claim, and I think I've seen it said on here - but some opinion polling would be useful.
    I have said it on here. I have met a few who think no deal means, in effect, no change of any kind. Some may think that means Remaining, but others are very much of the opinion it means we leave the EU, with none of the drawbacks from the deal. We leave, but keep all the benefits. No idea how widespread this view is, but it is definitely out there.
    At least one said they favoured No Deal, because Brexit has caused too much change and disruption already.
    Thank you. I'd suggest that irrespective of their idea of what would happen in the event of no deal, it only matters if people think no deal means not leaving.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    "Conference call"? Is that a euphemism for "Downfall video"... :)

    (Edit: unfuck html)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's the plan?!

    I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?

    What a bunch of incompetents.
    I know they can't back down, but the Irish position on the backstop is still ridiculous unless they genuinely believe that no deal won't happen.

    They've got themselves into a position where the thing preventing a deal from happening is something that won't exist in the event of no deal. It would make perfect sense if the alternative to a deal was remain. It makes no sense if the alternative is no deal Brexit.
    It doesn't make much sense to me to cause something because you are so intent on preventing that very thing, but but as you say they cannot back down now, politically. Sucks for all of us.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
    A member of the public made the claim, and I think I've seen it said on here - but some opinion polling would be useful.
    I have said it on here. I have met a few who think no deal means, in effect, no change of any kind. Some may think that means Remaining, but others are very much of the opinion it means we leave the EU, with none of the drawbacks from the deal. We leave, but keep all the benefits. No idea how widespread this view is, but it is definitely out there.
    At least one said they favoured No Deal, because Brexit has caused too much change and disruption already.
    Thank you. I'd suggest that irrespective of their idea of what would happen in the event of no deal, it only matters if people think no deal means not leaving.
    It should be added that almost nobody among the general public could articulate what they don't like about May's deal. Or at least articulate it in a way that was consistent with what May's deal actually does.

    The public opinion of the deal is almost entirely formed through the prism of the opposition of various MPs and the media.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    When do we start asking about May's Plan C?

    I'd just be happy to c a plan b fore it all goes to hell in a handcart.
    That is really good
    Like Mark Twain, I can live for two months on a good compliment.
    I really hope you live for a very much longer time than that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    The Labour position seems to have evolved to being - argue for a deal which removes the red line on freedom of movement (with a referendum a back up). Despite the fact that the biggest driver of the Labour leave vote was, er, ending freedom of movement.

    It is a position being put together by remainers, not Labour MPs in leave constituencies.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    alex. said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
    A member of the public made the claim, and I think I've seen it said on here - but some opinion polling would be useful.
    I have said it on here. I have met a few who think no deal means, in effect, no change of any kind. Some may think that means Remaining, but others are very much of the opinion it means we leave the EU, with none of the drawbacks from the deal. We leave, but keep all the benefits. No idea how widespread this view is, but it is definitely out there.
    At least one said they favoured No Deal, because Brexit has caused too much change and disruption already.
    Thank you. I'd suggest that irrespective of their idea of what would happen in the event of no deal, it only matters if people think no deal means not leaving.
    It should be added that almost nobody among the general public could articulate what they don't like about May's deal. Or at least articulate it in a way that was consistent with what May's deal actually does.

    The public opinion of the deal is almost entirely formed through the prism of the opposition of various MPs and the media.
    Indeed, though again, given that MPs on both sides are against the deal, I think it's understandable that some people are thinking "well, f*** it, let's leave with no deal."
  • HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    What kind of ruthless, awful organisation do you think they are that they would, against all their words of wanting a deal, happily see a no deal so that it destroys another nation? I thought you liked the EU?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    So long as the rest of us pay their dole money and triple locked pensions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    The people in the UK in the national poll though do not want No Deal, there are barely 50 in the studio audience
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?

    Was only a matter of time I suppose.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    The people in the UK in the national poll though do not want No Deal, there are barely 50 in the studio audience
    National poll by Sky last week was 50/50
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.

    If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    What kind of ruthless, awful organisation do you think they are that they would, against all their words of wanting a deal, happily see a no deal so that it destroys another nation? I thought you liked the EU?
    It is a bitter comment and is unlikely
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    What kind of ruthless, awful organisation do you think they are that they would, against all their words of wanting a deal, happily see a no deal so that it destroys another nation? I thought you liked the EU?
    It is a bitter comment and is unlikely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited January 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    The people in the UK in the national poll though do not want No Deal, there are barely 50 in the studio audience
    National poll by Sky last week was 50/50
    It was 54% No to No Deal 46% Yes to No Deal tonight nationally.


    So fewer Leavers back No Deal than Leave overall
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lady on the Sky News thing saying that people who support no deal think it means staying in the EU. Is there polling to support this claim and to put a number on it?

    Do you mean a member of the public or one of the presenters
    A member of the public made the claim, and I think I've seen it said on here - but some opinion polling would be useful.
    I have said it on here. I have met a few who think no deal means, in effect, no change of any kind. Some may think that means Remaining, but others are very much of the opinion it means we leave the EU, with none of the drawbacks from the deal. We leave, but keep all the benefits. No idea how widespread this view is, but it is definitely out there.
    At least one said they favoured No Deal, because Brexit has caused too much change and disruption already.
    Thank you. I'd suggest that irrespective of their idea of what would happen in the event of no deal, it only matters if people think no deal means not leaving.
    Tbh, it never occurred to me to ask whether they thought no deal would mean no change because we wouldn't leave, or that we would leave but everything would stay the same. I think I will next time it is raised, and report back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    The final Sky/Deltapoll National poll has 51% saying Brexit was wrong, 49% saying it was right.


    The audience though said Brexit was right
  • Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.

    If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
    You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...

    The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited January 2019

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    The people in the UK in the national poll though do not want No Deal, there are barely 50 in the studio audience
    National poll by Sky last week was 50/50
    It was 54% No to No Deal 46% Yes to No Deal tonight nationally.


    So fewer Leavers back No Deal than Leave overall
    And as always with you and polls

    There are others available and Skys national poll was 50/50
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    What kind of ruthless, awful organisation do you think they are that they would, against all their words of wanting a deal, happily see a no deal so that it destroys another nation? I thought you liked the EU?
    I thought you were talking about the SNP until the last part. :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?

    Was only a matter of time I suppose.
    And not before time either.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have rather a good visual joke to share. How does one do this?

    Thanks.

    You could tweet it and post a link to your tweet.

    Or put the picture on a URL somewhere and post a link using the image embedder tool.
    Thanks.

    Unfortunately I am not on Twitter and the rest is incomprehensible......

    Go here https://imggmi.com

    Upload your pic

    Post the jpg link it gives you in a comment
    Thank you so much.

    Let's see if this works.

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    The people in the UK in the national poll though do not want No Deal, there are barely 50 in the studio audience
    National poll by Sky last week was 50/50
    It was 54% No to No Deal 46% Yes to No Deal tonight nationally.


    So fewer Leavers back No Deal than Leave overall
    And as always with you and polls

    There are others available and Skys national poll was 50/50
    Tonight's national poll was 54% opposed No Deal and the poll was from Datapoll, who are the only pollsters I can recall who ever had a poll putting No Deal ahead of Remain, though it also even in that poll had Deal ahead of No Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
    People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
    The people in Leeds want no deal
    Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?

    Was only a matter of time I suppose.
    If Yorkshire left the UK I expect the UK would have a clear Remain majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have rather a good visual joke to share. How does one do this?

    Thanks.

    You could tweet it and post a link to your tweet.

    Or put the picture on a URL somewhere and post a link using the image embedder tool.
    Thanks.

    Unfortunately I am not on Twitter and the rest is incomprehensible......

    Go here https://imggmi.com

    Upload your pic

    Post the jpg link it gives you in a comment
    Thank you so much.

    Let's see if this works.

    image
    Terrible - Philip only has one L (though to me it always looks like it should have 2)
  • HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.

    If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
    You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...

    The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
    According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.

    No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!


    https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/no-deal-brexit-irish-unification
  • Both in Leeds and Nationally voters do not want a second referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Both in Leeds and Nationally voters do not want a second referendum

    Nationally voters do not want No Deal
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have rather a good visual joke to share. How does one do this?

    Thanks.

    You could tweet it and post a link to your tweet.

    Or put the picture on a URL somewhere and post a link using the image embedder tool.
    Thanks.

    Unfortunately I am not on Twitter and the rest is incomprehensible......

    Go here https://imggmi.com

    Upload your pic

    Post the jpg link it gives you in a comment
    Thank you so much.

    Let's see if this works.

    image
    Terrible - Philip only has one L (though to me it always looks like it should have 2)
    She May have meant the other Philip - or is he too busy moving dustbins?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
    So what
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
    So what
    So what? It is the national scientific poll which was relevant not what a random studio audience thought
  • Interestingly in the audience no one has changed their minds on the way they voted
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
    So what
    So what? It is the national scientific poll which was relevant not what a random studio audience thought
    I think the polls don't check out.

    Although anecdotally we've been told they're all off home as a rusher because of our xenophobia.
  • Why should anyone trust those who voted for Article 50 and now want another referendum to abide by a leave result in a second referendum?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited January 2019
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
    No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
    I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.

    If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
    You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...

    The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
    According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.

    No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!


    https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/no-deal-brexit-irish-unification
    Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.

    FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.

    No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
    So what
    So what? It is the national scientific poll which was relevant not what a random studio audience thought
    You are so possessed with polls - just sad
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    It does seem as if the Brexit opinion is swinging behind No Deal.

    May is to blame of course; she’s never confronted the extremists in her own party, in fact she’s enabled them.

    Historians will not be kind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
    On which, am I the only one fed up with vox pops and invited audiences taking up more and more space on news and current affairs, crowding out informative analysis and actual news?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky summary of the programme from Leeds

    They just want to get on with it and leave with no deal and do not want a referendum

    Not what the Sky national poll showed though and that is more important, nationally voters opposed No Deal and narrowly thought Brexit wrong.


    Though nationally voters still do not back a second referendum yet
    What on earth are you talking about. This was a live programme and is not connected to your utter obsession with polls
    It was a studio audience of a handful of people, the national Sky polls were not the same on 2/3 of the issues to the results in the studio
    So what
    So what? It is the national scientific poll which was relevant not what a random studio audience thought
    You are so possessed with polls - just sad
    Wonder how HYUFD rationalises May losing her majority in the General Election? After all, didn't they predict a landslide...?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737

    Why should anyone trust those who voted for Article 50 and now want another referendum to abide by a leave result in a second referendum?

    It’s very simple. A referendum between ratification of the withdrawal agreement and revocation would translate directly into a definable action.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Referee has just had to kill a large wasp on the snooker table in the Masters final.

    Not something you see very often.

    Especially not given how cold it is right now.

    Oh, and O'Sullivan is 7 down with 8 to play, also not something you see too often.
  • kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have rather a good visual joke to share. How does one do this?

    Thanks.

    You could tweet it and post a link to your tweet.

    Or put the picture on a URL somewhere and post a link using the image embedder tool.
    Thanks.

    Unfortunately I am not on Twitter and the rest is incomprehensible......

    Go here https://imggmi.com

    Upload your pic

    Post the jpg link it gives you in a comment
    Thank you so much.

    Let's see if this works.

    image
    Terrible - Philip only has one L (though to me it always looks like it should have 2)
    My son is Phillip with two Ls. Named after Phillip of Macedon (indirectly via my best friend who was actually named after Phillip of Macedon.)
This discussion has been closed.