Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
This is why I'm ok with a No Deal move to WTO Brexit.
It'll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement for a generation.
There's so many of them that have said WTO will be awesome, it'll be their we abolished boom and bust moment.
Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
This is why I'm ok with a No Deal move to WTO Brexit.
It'll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement for a generation.
There's so many of them that have said WTO will be awesome, it'll be their we abolished boom and bust moment.
If it is harmful, and it probably will be, especially in the absence of the two years WA gives us to sort it all out. We could be shafted and it would take years to get issues resolved.
What I have difficulty understanding is how the demands for the ‘permanent customs union’ have polluted this deal. The CU permanent or temporary is a decision to be made as part of the next stage of negotiations. Theresa May is dying in a ditch to end free movement, but the reality is that a soon as labour get back in charge they’ll roll back any restrictions anyway.
How does being bounced into a softer brexit avoid a party split? She would still need to help it happen somehow, and a large chunk of her party would prefer no deal to that by a long way.
It all flows back to the demands of the Tory government. Even my Tory council blames the government for any austerity.
LoL - never Labours fault is it.
Of course it can be, if a council is in a really bad way it will probably still be their fault and they can make bad choices even out of the limited set they are handed from central government, the point was that council will have an easy out to TSE's retort.
Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
This is why I'm ok with a No Deal move to WTO Brexit.
It'll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement for a generation.
There's so many of them that have said WTO will be awesome, it'll be their we abolished boom and bust moment.
If it is harmful, and it probably will be, especially in the absence of the two years WA gives us to sort it all out. We could be shafted and it would take years to get issues resolved.
What I have difficulty understanding is how the demands for the ‘permanent customs union’ have polluted this deal. The CU permanent or temporary is a decision to be made as part of the next stage of negotiations. Theresa May is dying in a ditch to end free movement, but the reality is that a soon as labour get back in charge they’ll roll back any restrictions anyway.
That’s politics. Sometimes there is no other option but to pull out your sword and face the onrushing charge of cavalry
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
It all flows back to the demands of the Tory government. Even my Tory council blames the government for any austerity.
Much more complicated than that. It is true that local authorities have genuinely suffered in austerity, not the pretendy austerity that is claimed for education and health. But there are other factors many if not all councils repeatedly froze council tax between 2011 and 2014. Council tax needs to increase just to stay still. To freeze cascades in perpetuity. Combine that with massive rising demand, not just in numbers but in what people expect and you have a perfect storm.
Easier just to blame the tories though. A local authority I’m involved in had crap roads, childrens services, adult services for a decade before austerity, and are now rated higher since they’ve had a lot of fat trimmed.
It all flows back to the demands of the Tory government. Even my Tory council blames the government for any austerity.
Much more complicated than that.
I know, I was trying to show how the authority will be able to explain how it is not their fault, even though as you suggest many contribute to their own problems. And there was plenty of fat to trim.
It all flows back to the demands of the Tory government. Even my Tory council blames the government for any austerity.
LoL - never Labours fault is it.
It's not - Northamptonshire is a Tory Council and Social Care is one reason why they went bankrupt (although granted one reason was failed attempts to generate income to pay for said Social Care costs)...
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
Although it is clearly not the way it should be done, some of us at least would view it as righting an historic wrong.
No Deal won't go down well in Scotland, either. "The only way to guarantee Scotland stays in the EU is to vote No to independence" said the No campaign in 2014.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
Markets are organic and if the fundamentals are fine will recover. But... there could be a lot of old forest burnt first. Not sure we are ready for that.
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
Although it is clearly not the way it should be done, some of us at least would view it as righting an historic wrong.
No Deal won't go down well in Scotland, either. "The only way to guarantee Scotland stays in the EU is to vote No to independence" said the No campaign in 2014.
The EU would make it very easy for an independent Scotland to join.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Well, at least we won't starve, at least if we adopt continental epicurian tastes.
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
It all flows back to the demands of the Tory government. Even my Tory council blames the government for any austerity.
LoL - never Labours fault is it.
It's not - Northamptonshire is a Tory Council and Social Care is one reason why they went bankrupt (although granted one reason was failed attempts to generate income to pay for said Social Care costs)...
They’re not bankrupt. They are just not allowed to engage in new expenditure.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Did we cover the fact that 26% of (self selecting) voters think No Deal means we stay in the EU
Yep, that's the problem with polls on the various options. What % of the electorate understands even the basics .... 10% at most maybe?
Not trying to invalidate anyones' opinions here, merely suggesting that a lot of beliefs out there might be very soft.
I think there's something in that, and it's why ultimately we are all guided by political tribes more than we like to admit, and thus how they switch between the options coming up will be very important, even if previously they've ruled out various options.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Well, at least we won't starve, at least if we adopt continental epicurian tastes.
In the short term, no. Gets a bit trickier in 2020 though once all the sheep farmers and fishermen have gone bust.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
It was probably the chocolate-sprinkled coffee to blame.
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
Not sure. Reading through various sunday papers, seems she is heading towards another vote on a slightly modified deal.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
It was probably the chocolate-sprinkled coffee to blame.
** runs and hides **
Either that or they omitted to put pizza under their pineapple
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
Not sure. Reading through various sunday papers, seems she is heading towards another vote on a slightly modified deal.
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
It does look like a number of brexiteers are having regrets and are looking for ways to save face and vote for the deal when it comes back. If they and the DUP move it passes and that is the issue TM wll focus on
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
Incorrect.
Let's revisit this in, say 3 months time.
We could do, but there is no point. 70% of Tory voters want to leave, the members are leave, only 16 MP's want to remain. Any leave and the harder the better leaves the Tory Party fine. No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party. Also they are on Government so have all the leavers to moderate the initial effects.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
They don’t care about it - that’s in the purview of government. It’s not a fundamental matter
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Well, at least we won't starve, at least if we adopt continental epicurian tastes.
In the short term, no. Gets a bit trickier in 2020 though once all the sheep farmers and fishermen have gone bust.
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
Not sure. Reading through various sunday papers, seems she is heading towards another vote on a slightly modified deal.
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
Not sure. Reading through various sunday papers, seems she is heading towards another vote on a slightly modified deal.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Been thinking that a non deal with Scotland staying in the EU might be a massive boost to the Scottish economy. Edinburgh so much closer than Frankfurt for the bankers.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
That's just sad. There are some people who might be regretting killing the deal, but it is dead and the codicil idea has already been floated and rejected, so tough luck to them and us - they were told what voting it down might risk, it's too late to try to revive it now.
Not sure. Reading through various sunday papers, seems she is heading towards another vote on a slightly modified deal.
You can either laugh or cry.
The EU have agreed to a slightly modified deal?
No. That's the crying bit.
On Sunday night, Mrs May held a conference phone call with her Cabinet. One Cabinet minister said the outcome of the call was "essentially one more heave on the backstop".
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
It was probably the chocolate-sprinkled coffee to blame.
** runs and hides **
Either that or they omitted to put pizza under their pineapple
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
Incorrect.
Let's revisit this in, say 3 months time.
We could do, but there is no point. 70% of Tory voters want to leave, the members are leave, only 16 MP's want to remain. Any leave and the harder the better leaves the Tory Party fine. No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party. Also they are on Government so have all the leavers to moderate the initial effects.
You don't think the government would be under huge pressure to get a deal with the EU, just to make the sense of chaos go away? Not so much a tuition fees moment as a 1976 IMF bailout and Winter of Discontent moment, I suggest.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
Surely 'The Tory Brexit' will be the albatross around every candidate if we No Deal?
...No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party....
Err, that rather assumes it's not an existential, economy-crashing disasater, doesn't it?
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
Been thinking that a non deal with Scotland staying in the EU might be a massive boost to the Scottish economy. Edinburgh so much closer than Frankfurt for the bankers.
Been thinking that a non deal with Scotland staying in the EU might be a massive boost to the Scottish economy. Edinburgh so much closer than Frankfurt for the bankers.
Mrs May is said to have told the Cabinet her plan was to do “something” on the backstop. Asked if it was something specific or just “anything” she is said to have told them “the latter”.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Don't forget the 4 million EU citizens working in the UK, suddenly plunged into existential crisis.....
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
Incorrect.
Let's revisit this in, say 3 months time.
We could do, but there is no point. 70% of Tory voters want to leave, the members are leave, only 16 MP's want to remain. Any leave and the harder the better leaves the Tory Party fine. No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party. Also they are on Government so have all the leavers to moderate the initial effects.
70% of Tory voters want to leave.
Until they find out what No Deal leave actually entails.
Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
Statesmanship to ignore one of the key reasons Leave won you mean and to ignore working class Leavers too
Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
Statesmanship to ignore one of the key reasons Leave won you mean and to ignore working class Leavers too
Yep. Because their desires are incoherent, damaging, and probably wouldn’t have got a majority if actually articulated.
...No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party....
Err, that rather assumes it's not an existential, economy-crashing disasater, doesn't it?
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
As you well know we disagree on the effects of no deal brexit, which is a misnomer because there will be mini deals with the EU initially and grandfathered deals with countries that want to preserve their trade with the UK on current EU deal terms.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
What's your take on Theresa's plan to re-write the NI Agreement Big_G?
I am genuinely wondering if the stress has completely got to her - she's probably endured more pressure than 99% of her fellow mortals could.
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
I can imagine a Corbyn government. I can understand why you actually can't.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 yake weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Somk.
No Dee.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
Surely 'The Tory Brexit' will be the albatross around every candidate if we No Deal?
46% back No Deal in the Sky poll today, that is a lot of potential voters for the Tories under FPTP.
No Deal might eventually do for the Tories time in office but revoking Brexit completely poses more of a threat to the core Tory vote than No Deal. There are still likely to be plenty of people voting Tory under No Deal.
Of course if we go to No Deal and Corbyn has not come out for EUref2 with a Remain option beforehand that also risks Labour Remainers moving to the LDs
Until they find out what No Deal leave actually entails.
They will melt like April snow.
Unless there's a second referendum, in which case people's views will become even more entrenched.
If we must have No Deal, it's much better for the politicians to take us there, since that would mean, if it turns out to be a disaster, people will just blame the politicians and demand they fix it asap (by taking us straight back in) - whereas, if people have actively voted for No Deal in a referendum, the stubborn "like hell am I admitting I was wrong!" streak will kick in, no matter how badly it turns out.
Until they find out what No Deal leave actually entails.
They will melt like April snow.
Unless there's a second referendum, in which case people's views will become even more entrenched.
If we must have No Deal, it's much better for the politicians to take us there, since that would mean, if it turns out to be a disaster, people will just blame the politicians and demand they fix it asap (by taking us straight back in) - whereas, if people have actively voted for No Deal in a referendum, the stubborn "like hell am I admitting I was wrong!" streak will kick in, no matter how badly it turns out.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 yake weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Somk.
No Dee.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
Surely 'The Tory Brexit' will be the albatross around every candidate if we No Deal?
46% back No Deal in the Sky poll today, that is a lot of potential voters for the Tories under FPTP.
No Deal might eventually do for the Tories time in office but revoking Brexit completely poses more of a threat to the core Tory vote than No Deal. There are still likely to be plenty of people voting Tory under No Deal.
Of course if we go to No Deal and Corbyn has not come out for EUref2 with a Remain option beforehand that also risks Labour Remainers moving to the LDs
Yes but did you see the other Sky poll where 26% thought 'No Deal' meant 'stay in'?
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
Although it is clearly not the way it should be done, some of us at least would view it as righting an historic wrong.
No Deal won't go down well in Scotland, either. "The only way to guarantee Scotland stays in the EU is to vote No to independence" said the No campaign in 2014.
Again I know many would view that as a bad thing but I am in favour of Scottish Independence so would not view it in that way.
Until they find out what No Deal leave actually entails.
They will melt like April snow.
Unless there's a second referendum, in which case people's views will become even more entrenched.
If we must have No Deal, it's much better for the politicians to take us there, since that would mean, if it turns out to be a disaster, people will just blame the politicians and demand they fix it asap (by taking us straight back in) - whereas, if people have actively voted for No Deal in a referendum, the stubborn "like hell am I admitting I was wrong!" streak will kick in, no matter how badly it turns out.
There’s about zero votes in food shortages and bankruptcy.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Let's postulate, for the sake of argument, that I'm right about the economic disaster, in the short term. Are you seriously suggesting that because Tory voters currently don't think it's an issue - because like you they don't believe it - they would stay on board if it did indeed turn out to be a disaster?
...No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party....
Err, that rather assumes it's not an existential, economy-crashing disasater, doesn't it?
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
As you well know we disagree on the effects of no deal brexit, which is a misnomer because there will be mini deals with the EU initially and grandfathered deals with countries that want to preserve their trade with the UK on current EU deal terms.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Arrogant to the end. I would be very interested to know about the "mini deals" you mention as I have not heard of them before. I give you guts in your brave attempt to argue against all precedent of the last 100 years in international trade and economic policy making.
I think Brexit has suspended the judgement of those who advocate it. Nurse!
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
I can imagine a Corbyn government. I can understand why you actually can't.
I think what No Deal Brexit, and the Corbyn leftist ideologies have in common is blinkered, destructive thinking....
At this point I I think it is time to ask the obvious question
How good are our broadcasters, presenters and journalists and how much does their agenda create their headlines
A lot of stories are so nonsensical and yet so many take them at face value
Tonights Sky programme from Leeds was one such programme inviting just 50 of an audience and finding that they wanted a no deal, no referendum, and not one had changed the way they voted in the referendum.
While I do not watch it I believe there is a programme called 'Pointless'.
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
snip
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
What's your take on Theresa's plan to re-write the NI Agreement Big_G?
I am genuinely wondering if the stress has completely got to her - she's probably endured more pressure than 99% of her fellow mortals could.
Beth Rigby saying tonight it could be a ruse, getting HoC to block her 'mad' scheming ways and land a soft Brexit.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Let's postulate, for the sake of argument, that I'm right about the economic disaster, in the short term. Are you seriously suggesting that because Tory voters currently don't think it's an issue - because like you they don't believe it - they would stay on board if it did indeed turn out to be a disaster?
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Don't forget the 4 million EU citizens working in the UK, suddenly plunged into existential crisis.....
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
I've yet to see a remainer define a brexit that they'd consider a success, though I have seen a few demand of leavers that they define its failure. Does anyone on either side have an answer to that question? I want us to leave, but I don't think I can answer for my side.
...No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party....
Err, that rather assumes it's not an existential, economy-crashing disasater, doesn't it?
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
As you well know we disagree on the effects of no deal brexit, which is a misnomer because there will be mini deals with the EU initially and grandfathered deals with countries that want to preserve their trade with the UK on current EU deal terms.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Arrogant to the end. I would be very interested to know about the "mini deals" you mention as I have not heard of them before. I give you guts in your brave attempt to argue against all precedent of the last 100 years in international trade and economic policy making.
I think Brexit has suspended the judgement of those who advocate it. Nurse!
I honestly fail to understand the fantasies perpetuated by the likes of Ralph....
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Don't forget the 4 million EU citizens working in the UK, suddenly plunged into existential crisis.....
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
To be fair, the government has promised the EU citizens here status even if No Deal.
Though the administrative chaos around it would make Windrush look trivial.
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
snip
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
What's your take on Theresa's plan to re-write the NI Agreement Big_G?
I am genuinely wondering if the stress has completely got to her - she's probably endured more pressure than 99% of her fellow mortals could.
Beth Rigby saying tonight it could be a ruse, getting HoC to block her 'mad' scheming ways and land a soft Brexit.
Is this a version of the Nixon strategy?
I said this upthread.
She doesn’t want to make the only logical decision, so she will let Parliament take it for her.
That seems to be the only explanation for her extraordinary “nothing has changed” stance with just over two months to go.
...No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party....
Err, that rather assumes it's not an existential, economy-crashing disasater, doesn't it?
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
As you well know we disagree on the effects of no deal brexit, which is a misnomer because there will be mini deals with the EU initially and grandfathered deals with countries that want to preserve their trade with the UK on current EU deal terms.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Arrogant to the end. I would be very interested to know about the "mini deals" you mention as I have not heard of them before. I give you guts in your brave attempt to argue against all precedent of the last 100 years in international trade and economic policy making.
I think Brexit has suspended the judgement of those who advocate it. Nurse!
There’s already been some. Flights won’t be grounded. Would all require mutual goodwill. And I doubt there is much of that other than base self interest.
No deal would pull us into recession, but it will drag much of Europe along with it..
At this point I I think it is time to ask the obvious question
How good are our broadcasters, presenters and journalists and how much does their agenda create their headlines
A lot of stories are so nonsensical and yet so many take them at face value
Tonights Sky programme from Leeds was one such programme inviting just 50 of an audience and finding that they wanted a no deal, no referendum, and not one had changed the way they voted in the referendum.
While I do not watch it I believe there is a programme called 'Pointless'.
Tonight's Sky effort was exactly that
+1 Broadcasters like to stir the pot as well as use unrepresentative audiences of current public opinion. Most of the people on shows like that are iron clad one way or the other, they believe passionately in one side or the other. They probably used the referendum result as a guide as to who should be included or excluded. I take programs like that with a ton of salt as you always get stereotypical angry or intellectual or stupid.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Don't forget the 4 million EU citizens working in the UK, suddenly plunged into existential crisis.....
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
To be fair, the government has promised the EU citizens here status even if No Deal.
Though the administrative chaos around it would make Windrush look trivial.
How many would just depart asap rather than take their chances? That alone could cause massive economic disruption.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
hey have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Sometimes I wish for no deal just so some people can actually understand how markets work.
No Deal == Tories utterly fucked for a generation.
Goodbye.
I hope you are coming back
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
I am relieved. As for conservative seats who knows
What's your take on Theresa's plan to re-write the NI Agreement Big_G?
I am genuinely wondering if the stress has completely got to her - she's probably endured more pressure than 99% of her fellow mortals could.
I think it is unlikely to say the least. Her best chance is to keep to her request for claification on the backstop and keep no deal very much in play
I've yet to see a remainer define a brexit that they'd consider a success, though I have seen a few demand of leavers that they define its failure. Does anyone on either side have an answer to that question? I want us to leave, but I don't think I can answer for my side.
EEA with a customs protocol (not union), with gvt commitment to enforce the already existing restrictions on free movement. We would leave the Eu in March, and there’ll be little change, except no longer a member of the Eu.. the two year period really to tie up the details, we keep a very close relationship.
I've yet to see a remainer define a brexit that they'd consider a success, though I have seen a few demand of leavers that they define its failure. Does anyone on either side have an answer to that question? I want us to leave, but I don't think I can answer for my side.
May's deal would be a successful Brexit. In economic terms, it's not as good as remaining in the EU, but it would give us the principal advantages on which the Leave campaigns won the referendum
...No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party....
Err, that rather assumes it's not an existential, economy-crashing disasater, doesn't it?
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
As you well know we disagree on the effects of no deal brexit, which is a misnomer because there will be mini deals with the EU initially and grandfathered deals with countries that want to preserve their trade with the UK on current EU deal terms.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
Arrogant to the end. I would be very interested to know about the "mini deals" you mention as I have not heard of them before. I give you guts in your brave attempt to argue against all precedent of the last 100 years in international trade and economic policy making.
I think Brexit has suspended the judgement of those who advocate it. Nurse!
There’s already been some. Flights won’t be grounded. Would all require mutual goodwill. And I doubt there is much of that other than base self interest.
No deal would pull us into recession, but it will drag much of Europe along with it..
“Mini-deals” is putting it strongly if it’s the EU’s own No Deal measures put out before Christmas, which offer a few months on some flights and some leeway on the haulage question that someone mentioned earlier (though I’m not clear if this covers the individual permits required:
“The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.”
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Don't forget the 4 million EU citizens working in the UK, suddenly plunged into existential crisis.....
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
To be fair, the government has promised the EU citizens here status even if No Deal.
Though the administrative chaos around it would make Windrush look trivial.
Our government has... the EU on the other hand......
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
Don't worry about 5 - 10 years. The crisis will hit by April if not before.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
This needs to be said again and again.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
Don't forget the 4 million EU citizens working in the UK, suddenly plunged into existential crisis.....
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
To be fair, the government has promised the EU citizens here status even if No Deal.
Though the administrative chaos around it would make Windrush look trivial.
How many would just depart asap rather than take their chances? That alone could cause massive economic disruption.
Indeed even going back to visit family may be problematic on the return journey. One of our Spanish nurses is planning to fly to Murcia on 30th March.
Comments
It'll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement for a generation.
There's so many of them that have said WTO will be awesome, it'll be their we abolished boom and bust moment.
What I have difficulty understanding is how the demands for the ‘permanent customs union’ have polluted this deal. The CU permanent or temporary is a decision to be made as part of the next stage of negotiations. Theresa May is dying in a ditch to end free movement, but the reality is that a soon as labour get back in charge they’ll roll back any restrictions anyway.
Anything with a + added in similarily.
UK sheep farmers export over a third of their produce to the EU and don't have any other real export markets. After No Deal Brexit they are confronted by tariffs of over 50% and intrusive veterinary inspections for which EU counterparts don't have the vets. No ifs or buts, they will be bankrupted. Do you think they will go "Aw shucks, Brexit is so worth it." ? Same if less starkly will apply to beef farmers. Same to deep sea fishermen who export over half their catch to the EU.
Meanwhile lorries will be gridlocked at customs not being able to bring goods to our supermarket shelves. Car manufacturers and other businesses with just-in-time supply chains will run out of parts. And the list goes on.
All those people will beat up the politicians, what are you doing about it? And they won't be able to do a thing because the UK isn't in a transition. Simply to get the EU countries together to discuss next steps will take weeks and the crisis will be hitting be hitting every day.
Easier just to blame the tories though. A local authority I’m involved in had crap roads, childrens services, adult services for a decade before austerity, and are now rated higher since they’ve had a lot of fat trimmed.
Deep sea fishermen is a really interesting one. They export over half their catch... but at least after a No Deal Brexit they'll be able to catch twice as much. So that's all right then
"The only way to guarantee Scotland stays in the EU is to vote No to independence" said the No campaign in 2014.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1087061534596055040
Yep, that's the problem with polls on the various options. What % of the electorate understands even the basics .... 10% at most maybe?
Not trying to invalidate anyones' opinions here, merely suggesting that a lot of beliefs out there might be very soft.
They’re not bankrupt. They are just not allowed to engage in new expenditure.
Goodbye.
** runs and hides **
You can either laugh or cry.
Any leave and the harder the better leaves the Tory Party fine.
No deal is not a tuition fee moment for the Tory Party. Also they are on Government so have all the leavers to moderate the initial effects.
I meant goodbye Tory seats.
https://twitter.com/BenJonesPicEd/status/1087109248339927045
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/20/exclusive-theresa-may-mulls-amending-good-friday-agreement-get/
Which it almost certainly would be. The complacency about the possible extraordinary disruption, never before known in peacetime, which we might be facing in 10 weeks' time is gob-smacking, absolutely beyond belief.
What makes it even more gob-smacking is the almost total failure to recognise that it's not just trade with the EU which would be disrupted, it's also trade with many other countries, which currently takes place under EU-negotiated agreements and tariff structures.
Would this require a new NI referendum?
United Ireland here we come...
Look how well Ireland has done in the EU.
And the UK expats similarly left floundering....
I cannot imagine a bigger act of self harm and terrorism committed willingly against this country than that proposed by No Deal Ideological Fanatics....
Until they find out what No Deal leave actually entails.
They will melt like April snow.
But my point stands leaveing the EU is the preferred policy of Tory voters, activists and MP's. Political parties do not disappear doing what the above want.
I am genuinely wondering if the stress has completely got to her - she's probably endured more pressure than 99% of her fellow mortals could.
No Deal might eventually do for the Tories time in office but revoking Brexit completely poses more of a threat to the core Tory vote than No Deal. There are still likely to be plenty of people voting Tory under No Deal.
Of course if we go to No Deal and Corbyn has not come out for EUref2 with a Remain option beforehand that also risks Labour Remainers moving to the LDs
If we must have No Deal, it's much better for the politicians to take us there, since that would mean, if it turns out to be a disaster, people will just blame the politicians and demand they fix it asap (by taking us straight back in) - whereas, if people have actively voted for No Deal in a referendum, the stubborn "like hell am I admitting I was wrong!" streak will kick in, no matter how badly it turns out.
Better we don't leave with no deal at all though.
I think Brexit has suspended the judgement of those who advocate it. Nurse!
How good are our broadcasters, presenters and journalists and how much does their agenda create their headlines
A lot of stories are so nonsensical and yet so many take them at face value
Tonights Sky programme from Leeds was one such programme inviting just 50 of an audience and finding that they wanted a no deal, no referendum, and not one had changed the way they voted in the referendum.
While I do not watch it I believe there is a programme called 'Pointless'.
Tonight's Sky effort was exactly that
Is this a version of the Nixon strategy?
It's not arrogance, it's much worse...
Though the administrative chaos around it would make Windrush look trivial.
She doesn’t want to make the only logical decision, so she will let Parliament take it for her.
That seems to be the only explanation for her extraordinary “nothing has changed” stance with just over two months to go.
No deal would pull us into recession, but it will drag much of Europe along with it..
“The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.”
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm