I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
To be honest I have no faith in any polls these days. I think the public are far more sophisticated than is possible to capture through simplistic poll questions.
The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
The people in Leeds want no deal
Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?
Was only a matter of time I suppose.
If Yorkshire left the UK I expect the UK would have a clear Remain majority
Just as if California left the USA then the Republicans would also have a clear majority.
The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
The people in Leeds want no deal
Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?
Was only a matter of time I suppose.
If Yorkshire left the UK I expect the UK would have a clear Remain majority
Just as if California left the USA then the Republicans would also have a clear majority.
Mind you if Texas had left the USA then George W Bush would never have won the Electoral College and been elected US President.
California also was a Republican leaning state from 1944 to 1988
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
The people in Leeds want no deal
Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?
Was only a matter of time I suppose.
If Yorkshire left the UK I expect the UK would have a clear Remain majority
Just as if California left the USA then the Republicans would also have a clear majority.
Mind you if Texas had left the USA then George W Bush would never have won the Electoral College and been elected US President.
California also was a Republican leaning state from 1944 to 1988
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
Why should anyone trust those who voted for Article 50 and now want another referendum to abide by a leave result in a second referendum?
It’s very simple. A referendum between ratification of the withdrawal agreement and revocation would translate directly into a definable action.
I still certainly wouldn't trust a man like Dominic Grieve to do as he's told after a second referendum result that he disagreed with. Which remainers should I trust to do that?
It does seem as if the Brexit opinion is swinging behind No Deal.
May is to blame of course; she’s never confronted the extremists in her own party, in fact she’s enabled them.
Historians will not be kind.
Some of us alive now will not be kind either.
What about those of us alive now and historians?
You get to be both unkind and to write the best-selling history books reminding us all of what we've lived through.
Those of us alive in a few decades can be the "ordinary people" interviewed on the best-selling documentary narrated by a much older Benedict Cumberbatch - Britain at War: a 10 part series. Then there will be the Netflix drama series of it all. On and on and on it will go.
It does seem as if the Brexit opinion is swinging behind No Deal.
May is to blame of course; she’s never confronted the extremists in her own party, in fact she’s enabled them.
Historians will not be kind.
What was May supposed to do? There is NO deal with the EU most Leavers would accept bar a Canada style FTA which the EU refused to give without a backstop for NI. End of conversation.
Why should anyone trust those who voted for Article 50 and now want another referendum to abide by a leave result in a second referendum?
It’s very simple. A referendum between ratification of the withdrawal agreement and revocation would translate directly into a definable action.
I still certainly wouldn't trust a man like Dominic Grieve to do as he's told after a second referendum result that he disagreed with. Which remainders should I trust to do that?
A fair few, but certainly not all. And if for some reason it was no deal that won, definitely loads would not.
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
They can't pursue a real world solution to a problem they've created now. What makes you think they will do so post-Brexit?
Why should anyone trust those who voted for Article 50 and now want another referendum to abide by a leave result in a second referendum?
It’s very simple. A referendum between ratification of the withdrawal agreement and revocation would translate directly into a definable action.
I still certainly wouldn't trust a man like Dominic Grieve to do as he's told after a second referendum result that he disagreed with. Which remainders should I trust to do that?
A fair few, but certainly not all. And if for some reason it was no deal that won, definitely loads would not.
People's Vote wants a Remain v Deal referendum only for a reason
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
The people in Leeds want no deal
Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?
Was only a matter of time I suppose.
If Yorkshire left the UK I expect the UK would have a clear Remain majority
Just as if California left the USA then the Republicans would also have a clear majority.
Mind you if Texas had left the USA then George W Bush would never have won the Electoral College and been elected US President.
California also was a Republican leaning state from 1944 to 1988
He would just have won in 2004 - 252 to 251.
2004 would not have happened with Bush as a candidate as Al Gore would have won in 2000 and he would never have been elected president in the first place
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
You don't actually read what people write do you?
I do, you just repeat the same old arrogance that with No Deal all will be fine and no threat to the Union at all
I am a touch sceptical about all these polls saying that people are fine with a No Deal Leave.
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
The attraction of No deal leave is that however disastrous it might be, at least it would end all the endless political pontificating and arguing about how disastrous it would or wouldn't be.
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
Almost everyone out with this board seems to think it would all be over and we could forget about it. Virtually no one understands it will be followed by 5 to 10 or more years arguing over trade deals.
I know. Brexit - and our relationship with the EU - will dominate British politics for the foreseeable future.
Without clarification on that it is a meaningless question.
Why? Would we believe the explanation given if May announced it in a speech? Surely any reason renders it a leading question.
It might well be leading, but at least we'd know at least to some degree if people supported a delay for that purpose. Without a reason for the delay it could be people want a delay to give parliament more time to consider the deal again, get a new deal, organise a GE, organise a referendum, cancel Brexit altogether, or whatever. A delay could be for many reasons, not all of which would attract support from the same people. A delay for more no deal preparation for instance might not gain support from people who want a delay to organise a referendum.
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
You don't actually read what people write do you?
I do, you just repeat the same old arrogance that with No Deal all will be fine and no threat to the Union at all
So the answer is "no i don't read what people write" then.
Because you will be hard pressed to find any post of mine which states either that "no deal will be fine" or "no deal is no threat to the union".
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
Is there a good objective explanation of no deal. Surely this isn’t just a matter of opinion. One thing that might help is to allow parliament and the people to see whatever the cabinet has seen.
I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?
What a bunch of incompetents.
To be fair it is progress. Number 10 realises without the backstop the plan would get some more votes. That’s, different. It’s certainly better than where we have been the last months or so?
The part of the programme I saw suggested it was because it was from Leeds and if so you can see why so many labour mps from leave areas are against a referendum
People may not want another referendum but they also do not want No Deal, at the end of the day something has to give
The people in Leeds want no deal
Yorkshire wants to leave the U.K.?
Was only a matter of time I suppose.
If Yorkshire left the UK I expect the UK would have a clear Remain majority
And I would have to apply for a Yorkshire residency permit. Bugger that!
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
I have sympathy with your overall point about voter knowledge, but on this specific matter, this morning I saw Sky News report that the EU has said that it would apply a grace period for UK lorries till at least the end of this calendar year, in the event of no deal.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?
What a bunch of incompetents.
To be fair it is progress. Number 10 realises without the backstop the plan would get some more votes. That’s, different. It’s certainly better than where we have been the last months or so?
Not really, that's been the main stumbling block to potentially dozens of votes since mid December when the MV was pulled and May said she'd try to get some changes and failed.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?
What a bunch of incompetents.
To be fair it is progress. Number 10 realises without the backstop the plan would get some more votes. That’s, different. It’s certainly better than where we have been the last months or so?
Of course what nobody ever points out is that the backstop is the UK's protection against "no deal" becoming an issue in trade negotiations. It is actually something that sensible people should welcome being included in the withdrawal agreement.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
Do you extend your training to include teaching bakers not to be fuckwits? Because I think I've spotted a gap in the market...
I will teach pretty much anyone who wants to listen how not to be fuckwits. The similarities between scandals is striking. All the bad stuff in the charity sector this year could have been carbon copied from banks. All the bad stuff in Parliament - cf. the Cox report - is eerily similar. And the same could apply to many other sectors.
My blog touches on this. I have another post going up shortly which is on the same theme.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Without clarification on that it is a meaningless question.
How about if it was clarified “would you like to take the option of delay to get Britain better prepared so leaving is not so painful in shop stocks and prices and jobs etc. But by the way EU wont let us have delay, they rather we left unprepared and suffered needless pain, would you like a delay?” If it then gets greater support 😁
I mean, I predicted that would the general idea, but I assumed there's be the hint of something else to cover for the fact that they'll just try the same thing again. How many times does it need to be made clear that the EU/Ireland have no interest in modifying or removing the backstop even if it means no deal?
What a bunch of incompetents.
To be fair it is progress. Number 10 realises without the backstop the plan would get some more votes. That’s, different. It’s certainly better than where we have been the last months or so?
Bollocks is it. No.10 have known for ages the backstop is the issue. They have also known for ages that the EU won't budge on this. May is just sticking her head in the sand tbh.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
You don't actually read what people write do you?
I do, you just repeat the same old arrogance that with No Deal all will be fine and no threat to the Union at all
So the answer is "no i don't read what people write" then.
Because you will be hard pressed to find any post of mine which states either that "no deal will be fine" or "no deal is no threat to the union".
'If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...'
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
I have sympathy with your overall point about voter knowledge, but on this specific matter, this morning I saw Sky News report that the EU has said that it would apply a grace period for UK lorries till at least the end of this calendar year, in the event of no deal.
Thanks. The news this morning (or it may have been yesterday) said that the time for hauliers to apply for a permit had expired. I am not aware how widespread that information was.
Still, what this shows is that far from being in control we will be dependant on favours from the EU, on the kindnesses of strangers.
It's not, how shall I put, ideal for long-term economic and business planning, is it.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
Merely a trifle.
And Trump has given O'Sullivan the most one-sided hammering he's had since he walked out of a match against Hendry in the UK Championship twelve years ago.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
You don't actually read what people write do you?
I do, you just repeat the same old arrogance that with No Deal all will be fine and no threat to the Union at all
So the answer is "no i don't read what people write" then.
Because you will be hard pressed to find any post of mine which states either that "no deal will be fine" or "no deal is no threat to the union".
'If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...'
1) No deal is a threat to the union 2) No deal does not make a United Ireland inevitable.
These are not mutually contradictory statements...
Yes, well, May was right the first time she told them, they didn't listen, and now they won't get a deal because of it. You think the EU will count that as them winning?
No deal = the break up of the UK and reaccession of the pieces to the EU.
I do agree No Deal makes a United Ireland almost inevitable and an independent Scotland 50/50.
If we go to No Deal it may end up being just England and Wales that really commits to it and even then I cannot see that being sustained for too long
You would have thought you would have learned by now to be a little more circumspect in your 'certainty' about what will happen in the future...
The political and economic obstacles to a United Ireland are significant. If something as minor as a bit of economic hardship caused by no deal was all that it took to make it inevitable it would have happened a long time ago...
According to LucidTalk 55% of Northern Ireland voters would vote for a United Ireland if No Deal, just 42% to stay in the UK.
No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union and if you want to ignore the evidence fine, do not say you were not warned!
Don't be an idiot, i was querying your comment about it being "inevitable". And i'm in favour of May's deal.
FFS forget opinion polls as a certain predictor of the future. We had an actual ballot on leaving the EU and even that seems in doubt at the moment. Not least because "the political and economic obstacles to it happening" are significant.
No deal may make people in Northern Ireland worse off. It doesn't follow that a United Ireland will improve their situation.
You may think a United Ireland will not help Northern Ireland voters, polls of Northern Ireland voters though show they disagree and a clear majority will vote for a United Ireland if No Deal.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
Although it is clearly not the way it should be done, some of us at least would view it as righting an historic wrong.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
People have learned the lessons from the referendum campaign.
You need to get people angry if you want to win. Breaking Point as it were.
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
I have sympathy with your overall point about voter knowledge, but on this specific matter, this morning I saw Sky News report that the EU has said that it would apply a grace period for UK lorries till at least the end of this calendar year, in the event of no deal.
Thanks. The news this morning (or it may have been yesterday) said that the time for hauliers to apply for a permit had expired. I am not aware how widespread that information was.
Still, what this shows is that far from being in control we will be dependant on favours from the EU, on the kindnesses of strangers.
It's not, how shall I put, ideal for long-term economic and business planning, is it.
I see it somewhat differently. No doubt the EU have made that offer with the understanding, or at least expectation, that it would be reciprocated vis-à-vis their trucks on our roads.
May spends two years saying 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.
She brings forward a Deal.
Parliament rejects it overwhelmingly.
The public conclude that it must be a Bad Deal.
The public recall what May kept saying for two years, agree with the sentiment and support No Deal.
Well done Tezzie.
Actually Sky News' national poll tonight still had 54% of voters opposed to No Deal
That proves the point - the vast majority of Leavers are happy with No Deal. If May had spent 2 years saying that No Deal would be a disaster it would be 80% against.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
Inevitable from the moment Eurosceptics like you sided with the loons instead of campaigning for Cameron’s semi-detached deal.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
Merely a trifle.
On the contrary, I’d say they’re utterly flaky. Possibly even pretzel shaped.
May spends two years saying 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.
She brings forward a Deal.
Parliament rejects it overwhelmingly.
The public conclude that it must be a Bad Deal.
The public recall what May kept saying for two years, agree with the sentiment and support No Deal.
Well done Tezzie.
Actually Sky News' national poll tonight still had 54% of voters opposed to No Deal
That proves the point - the vast majority of Leavers are happy with No Deal. If May had spent 2 years saying that No Deal would be a disaster it would be 80% against.
Exactly.
May mouthed rubbish about the negotiations almost from day 1, and stayed silent while Davis and Johnson repeated utter lies.
I suspect a large chunk of "no dealers" in Parliament actually want a referendum and/or the UK to remain.
Avoids the tricky business of no deal actually happening and their predictions of how it won't be a big problem being shown to be nonsense. Whilst giving them a betrayal narrative to sustain them for the remainder of their political careers.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
The sheer incompetence of/ unwillingness to sell the deal has resulted in a split Leave side coalescing around the only remaining plausible Leave option. The PM now needs to decide which way she will jump. Fannying around with non-existing "clarifications" and more delay tomorrow just won't cut it. Yet almost everyone will be amazed if we hear anything else. Does anyone expect any different?
What do people make of the Corbyn Exit Date market?
You can back him at precisely 2 (ie Evens) to exit after June 2020.
Those seem quite long odds to me - assuming health is OK he surely only goes if he loses a GE. A GE taking place by June 2020 is only approx Evens and if it does he then has approx a 50:50 chance of winning.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
Merely a trifle.
On the contrary, I’d say they’re utterly flaky. Possibly even pretzel shaped.
Well, they're certainly nuts. But I think trifle is a better analogy given we're talking hundreds and thousands here.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
Merely a trifle.
On the contrary, I’d say they’re utterly flaky. Possibly even pretzel shaped.
Well, they're certainly nuts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some serious tortes have been committed. And it’s certain the financiers have been burned.
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
Merely a trifle.
On the contrary, I’d say they’re utterly flaky. Possibly even pretzel shaped.
Well, they're certainly nuts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some serious tortes have been committed. And it’s certain the financiers have been burned.
But being jammy bastards, they always come out on top. It's all upside down, but the results are baked in.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
The sheer incompetence of/ unwillingness to sell the deal has resulted in a split Leave side coalescing around the only remaining plausible Leave option. The PM now needs to decide which way she will jump. Fannying around with non-existing "clarifications" and more delay tomorrow just won't cut it. Yet almost everyone will be amazed if we hear anything else. Does anyone expect any different?
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
It sure is.
However , I was impressed by the post office and the passport agency. Last week we went into York to renew my wife's passport. The post office took the photos, asked for a mobile number and e mail address. Received a message, saying it was approved awaiting old passport. Two days later new passport arrived.
Seems a vastly improved service . to my memories of ten years ago, of form filling and having to get photos signed etc and waiting weeks.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
The sheer incompetence of/ unwillingness to sell the deal has resulted in a split Leave side coalescing around the only remaining plausible Leave option. The PM now needs to decide which way she will jump. Fannying around with non-existing "clarifications" and more delay tomorrow just won't cut it. Yet almost everyone will be amazed if we hear anything else. Does anyone expect any different?
Nothing has changed. We know May’s MO. Sadly, she will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to whatever conclusion we reach by Parliament itself.
What do people make of the Corbyn Exit Date market?
You can back him at precisely 2 (ie Evens) to exit after June 2020.
Those seem quite long odds to me - assuming health is OK he surely only goes if he loses a GE. A GE taking place by June 2020 is only approx Evens and if it does he then has approx a 50:50 chance of winning.
I suppose you have to factor in the small chance of a membership backlash against him, in the event of a No Deal in which he is seen as complicit (by failing to support EUref2) leading to a successful leadership challenge.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
The sheer incompetence of/ unwillingness to sell the deal has resulted in a split Leave side coalescing around the only remaining plausible Leave option. The PM now needs to decide which way she will jump. Fannying around with non-existing "clarifications" and more delay tomorrow just won't cut it. Yet almost everyone will be amazed if we hear anything else. Does anyone expect any different?
Nothing has changed. We know May’s MO. Sadly, she will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to whatever conclusion we reach by Parliament itself.
May spends two years saying 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.
She brings forward a Deal.
Parliament rejects it overwhelmingly.
The public conclude that it must be a Bad Deal.
The public recall what May kept saying for two years, agree with the sentiment and support No Deal.
Well done Tezzie.
Actually Sky News' national poll tonight still had 54% of voters opposed to No Deal
That proves the point - the vast majority of Leavers are happy with No Deal. If May had spent 2 years saying that No Deal would be a disaster it would be 80% against.
If you really think May saying No Deal would be a disaster would convince the vast majority of Leave voters who want out of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, preferably with no divorce bill and with a Canada style FTA max with no backstop which the EU will not offer for the UK, then you are engaging in tremendous wishful thinking. They would just think her even more of a Remainer sell out as they do after Chequers and the Deal
And that's something new (to me) that doesn't break my rule.
I think there'll be plenty more, where that came from. All of it crazy. And, to my mind, depressingly similar to every previous fraud and scandal, in its essence if not subject matter.
You surely don't mean they gave out sweeteners?
I'll get my coat...
Nah, they spiced up the accounts. And sugar-coated the bad news.
Are they entirely confected, then ?
Merely a trifle.
On the contrary, I’d say they’re utterly flaky. Possibly even pretzel shaped.
Well, they're certainly nuts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some serious tortes have been committed. And it’s certain the financiers have been burned.
But being jammy bastards, they always come out on top. It's all upside down, but the results are baked in.
Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
Opinion has hardened and moved to the extremes on both sides. Ultra Remainers no longer hiding their bigotry and ultra Leavers abandoning all rationality.
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
It's a crying shame is what it is.
The sheer incompetence of/ unwillingness to sell the deal has resulted in a split Leave side coalescing around the only remaining plausible Leave option. The PM now needs to decide which way she will jump. Fannying around with non-existing "clarifications" and more delay tomorrow just won't cut it. Yet almost everyone will be amazed if we hear anything else. Does anyone expect any different?
Nothing has changed. We know May’s MO. Sadly, she will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to whatever conclusion we reach by Parliament itself.
Very interesting this is from a Leaver, one of the few thinking ones by the looks of it.
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
If she achieves a deal in the next few weeks, maybe with the HOC help, and she delivers it history may well be kinder than you think. Of course that is why Corbyn is being obstructive, as an agreed deal to leave the EU by TM will have big conseqences for him
Comments
Until we know what people understand by this i.e. what a No Deal Leave means in practice, what is their value?
Some of the more senior Leavers seem to think that we would still have a transition deal even on a No Deal Exit (Davis and Leadsom, for example). Maybe voters think the same?
Maybe voters think that No Deal means everything stays the same but we don't pay £39 billion. Who knows?
This morning it was reported that the road haulage industry needs 40,000 permits for lorries going to the Continent but had only received 1200. So that's 38,800 hauliers without permits to do their jobs and, possibly, facing the very real risk of a big drop in income or losing their jobs altogether.
And that's just one industry. Is this what people understand by No Deal? And would people support it?
It is all as clear as mud. Still, no deal Brexit - whatever it means - is where we're headed. And May still does not have a fucking clue.
The golden rule of Brexit rules again. Everything that Remainers cheer ends up undermining their cause.
California also was a Republican leaning state from 1944 to 1988
It is also the only obvious route to ending the will we/won't we? Brexit discussions. We will have left, and politicians will have to start pursuing real world solutions to the problems that they have created.
I repeat, No Dealers are dicing with death with the Union if No Deal
Those of us alive in a few decades can be the "ordinary people" interviewed on the best-selling documentary narrated by a much older Benedict Cumberbatch - Britain at War: a 10 part series. Then there will be the Netflix drama series of it all. On and on and on it will go.
Patisserie Valerie seeks bank lifeline
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46937495
This looks crazier every time we learn something new.
So Northern Ireland voters will definitely vote for a United Ireland in the event of No deal. Until a poll comes along that says that they won't.
Do you extend your training to include teaching bakers not to be fuckwits? Because I think I've spotted a gap in the market...
Because you will be hard pressed to find any post of mine which states either that "no deal will be fine" or "no deal is no threat to the union".
That’s, different. It’s certainly better than where we have been the last months or so?
Ipsos MORI - 8% Tory lead
BMG - 13% Tory lead
ICM - 8% Tory lead
YouGov - 7% Tory lead
ComRes - 10% Tory lead
Panelbase - 8% Tory lead
Opinium - 7% Tory lead
All leads larger than the 6.6% Tory lead at GE 2015
Only BPC pollsters indicating a hung Parliament
Survation - 1% Tory lead
Kantar - 4% Tory lead
YouGov MRP - Hung Parliament
I'll get my coat...
I think that's all you can say about the polls. Both sides are pursuing absolute victory.
Healthy.
My blog touches on this. I have another post going up shortly which is on the same theme.
Spread the word.
“would you like to take the option of delay to get Britain better prepared so leaving is not so painful in shop stocks and prices and jobs etc. But by the way EU wont let us have delay, they rather we left unprepared and suffered needless pain, would you like a delay?”
If it then gets greater support 😁
Thanks. The news this morning (or it may have been yesterday) said that the time for hauliers to apply for a permit had expired. I am not aware how widespread that information was.
Still, what this shows is that far from being in control we will be dependant on favours from the EU, on the kindnesses of strangers.
It's not, how shall I put, ideal for long-term economic and business planning, is it.
She brings forward a Deal.
Parliament rejects it overwhelmingly.
The public conclude that it must be a Bad Deal.
The public recall what May kept saying for two years, agree with the sentiment and support No Deal.
Well done Tezzie.
She said 'No Brexit is better than No Deal'
Most of those final polls did not predict a Tory landslide
....
Did you need a good lawyer...
And Trump has given O'Sullivan the most one-sided hammering he's had since he walked out of a match against Hendry in the UK Championship twelve years ago.
2) No deal does not make a United Ireland inevitable.
These are not mutually contradictory statements...
(I'll get my coat)
You need to get people angry if you want to win. Breaking Point as it were.
Possibly even pretzel shaped.
May mouthed rubbish about the negotiations almost from day 1, and stayed silent while Davis and Johnson repeated utter lies.
Suez, Iraq, Brexit.
As I said, history will not be kind.
Avoids the tricky business of no deal actually happening and their predictions of how it won't be a big problem being shown to be nonsense. Whilst giving them a betrayal narrative to sustain them for the remainder of their political careers.
Fannying around with non-existing "clarifications" and more delay tomorrow just won't cut it.
Yet almost everyone will be amazed if we hear anything else.
Does anyone expect any different?
You can back him at precisely 2 (ie Evens) to exit after June 2020.
Those seem quite long odds to me - assuming health is OK he surely only goes if he loses a GE. A GE taking place by June 2020 is only approx Evens and if it does he then has approx a 50:50 chance of winning.
And it’s certain the financiers have been burned.
Good night.
However , I was impressed by the post office and the passport agency.
Last week we went into York to renew my wife's passport.
The post office took the photos, asked for a mobile number and e mail address.
Received a message, saying it was approved awaiting old passport.
Two days later new passport arrived.
Seems a vastly improved service . to my memories of ten years ago, of form filling and having to get photos signed etc and waiting weeks.
Sadly, she will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to whatever conclusion we reach by Parliament itself.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1087070585933451264?s=21
Perhaps she is realised Brexit is doomed and she doesn’t want her hand on the tiller.
Good night.
"That's your Deal, that is...."
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1086899969779515393
Exit via the EEA (Flexcit etc) was the only viable and sane way to achieve Brexit. However, the vote itself was swung by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment which meant it needed statesmanship from May to pursue this route - by which I mean a willingness to confront the unicorn fantasies perpetuated by many in her own party and greedily lapped up by the Telegraph, the Mail and even on occasion the BBC.
She failed history’s test.
Not only was there Brexit and Trump, but China probably surpassed the US in GDP (on a PPP basis, anyway).