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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    edited November 2018
    Tonight we have the same polarised argument from the two extremes each proclaiming they will win.

    TM ruling out a second referendum is significant because, as long as she is in power, it will not be brought to parliament

    ERG should be pleased and replacing her now would be folly as it could open the door to a second referendum

    I would expect no 10 have come to the conclusion that by comprehensively rejecting the second referendum it will focus mps minds on the deal v no deal

    As far as trade is concerned negotiating this is beyond the politicians and needs to be put in the hands of successful export business leaders reporting to a dedicated cabinet minister ( not Fox)
  • HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    You fight them with your arguments and campaigning not fists and knives.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    Might I suggest you actually read the WA before making such dumb claims.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    According to EuroStat the value of agricultural output in the UK increased by 12.6% in 2017 compared to 2016:

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9380923/5-16112018-BP-EN.pdf/86dc9faa-616d-43d0-9933-e2f5d0af6d42

    It seems the crops did not rot in the fields after all.

    Is that not distorted by all those strawberries you were buying?
    My strawberry research did not start until 2018.

    Incidentally there are still British strawberries (and raspberries) in some of the supermarkets and market stalls.
    Isn't global warming wonderful?
    I think you will find it is more a case of aren't electricity and great big glasshouses wonderful.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TBH if a resurgent far right peels off a chunk of the islamosceptic gammon/elderly racist twat vote from the Tories, and condemns the party that fucked up Brexit to an extended twilight of political oblivion, that would be a more than acceptable outcome.
  • HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    You fight them with your arguments and campaigning not fists and knives.
    I am not sure you quite understand those people.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    You fight them with your arguments and campaigning not fists and knives.
    I am not sure you quite understand those people.
    Fight gammon with gammon.
  • I'm laughing at all those people who said UKIP wasn't going down the far right racism/Islamophobia route.

    https://twitter.com/WarPlanPurple/status/1065656916477714433
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Not completely relevant, but can I just say that Paul Waugh is an insufferable, terminally gullible, continuity-Blairite dullard.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Even the typography offends me.
  • Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    Mrs May thinks that the nation will come together after her deal, sounds a bit delusional to me:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1065675750710435840?s=19

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited November 2018
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?

    We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.

    That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.

    There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
    Still way more than they can handle.
    Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
    If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.

    The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
    Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.

    Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.

    No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
    It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
    No that is the reality, No Deal means recession, mass exodus of manufacturing, shortages in the shops, riots and quite possibly the break up of the UK
    Brought to you by the same people who forecast an immediate recession after the vote to leave. Its just tosh.
    We are still in the EU, the single market and customs union.

    No Deal means crash out of all of them with no trade deal
  • Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is neither North America nor Europe.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    Mrs May thinks that the nation will come together after her deal, sounds a bit delusional to me:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1065675750710435840?s=19

    I tell you one thing for free. The next time I come together, Theresa May is not going to be within eyeshot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?

    We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.

    That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.

    There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
    Still way more than they can handle.
    Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
    If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.

    The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
    Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.

    Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.

    No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
    It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
    No that is the reality, No Deal means recession, mass exodus of manufacturing, shortages in the shops, riots and quite possibly the break up of the UK
    Voting to leave meant that in the first place.
    No, a sane Brexit like this Deal does not mean that
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
    Iceland is at the meeting point of the Eurasian and the American plates - and so belongs to both of them, the eastern part to Europe and the western part to America.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is neither North America nor Europe.
    Iceland is a magical realm of trolls and bjorks. I know it's not real.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
    Iceland is at the meeting point of the Eurasian and the American plates - and so belongs to both of them, the eastern part to Europe and the western part to America.
    Oh, is that so? There's only one thing for it then. World War.
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    Mrs May thinks that the nation will come together after her deal, sounds a bit delusional to me:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1065675750710435840?s=19

    Right now I think it is a better option for coming together than any of the alternatives. Mind you I never set much stall by harmony and peace. I subscribe to Harry Lime's view of the relative merits of war and peace in advancing human kind.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    eek said:

    Someone is very sure Boris will not be the next Tory leader as they are laying £80,000 on Betfair at 9 on that event not occurring.

    Probably Charles. I have always suspected he lights the fire using £50 notes :D
    The bricks the Bank of England supply them in don’t burn very well
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    Mrs May thinks that the nation will come together after her deal, sounds a bit delusional to me:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1065675750710435840?s=19

    Right now I think it is a better option for coming together than any of the alternatives. Mind you I never set much stall by harmony and peace. I subscribe to Harry Lime's view of the relative merits of war and peace in advancing human kind.
    It seems unlikely to expect people coming together on a dodgy deal, resulting from a botched negotiation, that pretty much everyone rates as the worst possible option of all the available alternatives.

    I mean, she can't even convince her own backbenchers to get behind this atrocity.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Another arch-Brexiteer says that no brexit is better than May's bad deal.

    https://twitter.com/iainmacwhirter/status/1065677023476109312
  • Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    Good-oh, arc of prosperity here we come.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    Tonight we have the same polarised argument from the two extremes each proclaiming they will win.

    TM ruling out a second referendum is significant because, as long as she is in power, it will not be brought to parliament

    ERG should be pleased and replacing her now would be folly as it could open the door to a second referendum

    I would expect no 10 have come to the conclusion that by comprehensively rejecting the second referendum it will focus mps minds on the deal v no deal

    As far as trade is concerned negotiating this is beyond the politicians and needs to be put in the hands of successful export business leaders reporting to a dedicated cabinet minister ( not Fox)

    With respect Big_G, Downing St ruling out a second referendum is not worth the paper it's not written on. Look at what they said about a GE last March:

    20 March 2017: "There will be no early general election, Downing Street says"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-may-2017-theresa-may-article-50-brexit-negotiations-labour-polls-a7639246.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    Mrs May thinks that the nation will come together after her deal, sounds a bit delusional to me:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1065675750710435840?s=19

    Right now I think it is a better option for coming together than any of the alternatives. Mind you I never set much stall by harmony and peace. I subscribe to Harry Lime's view of the relative merits of war and peace in advancing human kind.
    Personally, I prefer Switzerland to Syria, but maybe I am just an old softy.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Brexit will see a far right surge.

    People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.

    And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
    Mrs May thinks that the nation will come together after her deal, sounds a bit delusional to me:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1065675750710435840?s=19

    Right now I think it is a better option for coming together than any of the alternatives. Mind you I never set much stall by harmony and peace. I subscribe to Harry Lime's view of the relative merits of war and peace in advancing human kind.
    Personally, I prefer Switzerland to Syria, but maybe I am just an old softy.
    Ah, yes, the Swiss. The Nation that was unable to make up their minds whether the Nazis were good or bad.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Tonight we have the same polarised argument from the two extremes each proclaiming they will win.

    TM ruling out a second referendum is significant because, as long as she is in power, it will not be brought to parliament

    ERG should be pleased and replacing her now would be folly as it could open the door to a second referendum

    I would expect no 10 have come to the conclusion that by comprehensively rejecting the second referendum it will focus mps minds on the deal v no deal

    As far as trade is concerned negotiating this is beyond the politicians and needs to be put in the hands of successful export business leaders reporting to a dedicated cabinet minister ( not Fox)

    With respect Big_G, Downing St ruling out a second referendum is not worth the paper it's not written on. Look at what they said about a GE last March:

    20 March 2017: "There will be no early general election, Downing Street says"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-may-2017-theresa-may-article-50-brexit-negotiations-labour-polls-a7639246.html
    Perfectly true though. When announced, the election would have been at just the right time. Not early, not late, quite perfect. That proved to be incorrect is neither here nor there.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?

    We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.

    That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.

    There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
    There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.

    It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
    It tends to be only the most fanatical MPs who stay on the backbenchers.

    As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May

    Only because of the number of MPs who are “payroll votes”. Judging from the number saying they’ll vote against it, from both Remain and Leave, the majority of backbencers seem to be against it.
    A huge majority. As evidenced by the 3.56pm entry here, over 50% of Tory MPs are now on record as saying they will not vote for May's deal. Nor will more than a handful of Labour MPs.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/22/brext-deal-latest-downing-st-confident-summit-will-go-ahead/
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    matt said:

    Tonight we have the same polarised argument from the two extremes each proclaiming they will win.

    TM ruling out a second referendum is significant because, as long as she is in power, it will not be brought to parliament

    ERG should be pleased and replacing her now would be folly as it could open the door to a second referendum

    I would expect no 10 have come to the conclusion that by comprehensively rejecting the second referendum it will focus mps minds on the deal v no deal

    As far as trade is concerned negotiating this is beyond the politicians and needs to be put in the hands of successful export business leaders reporting to a dedicated cabinet minister ( not Fox)

    With respect Big_G, Downing St ruling out a second referendum is not worth the paper it's not written on. Look at what they said about a GE last March:

    20 March 2017: "There will be no early general election, Downing Street says"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-may-2017-theresa-may-article-50-brexit-negotiations-labour-polls-a7639246.html
    Perfectly true though. When announced, the election would have been at just the right time. Not early, not late, quite perfect. That proved to be incorrect is neither here nor there.
    There will be no second referendum. Instead we've decided to hold a consultation. That you vote on.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    edited November 2018

    Even the typography offends me.
    It’s only got 4 different fonts and random upper and lower case sentences. Do you really think design is high on your typical UKIP supporter’s list of concerns.
    I suspect they do it to scare hipsters away.
  • Sean_Fear said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
    Exactly.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?

    We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.

    That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.

    There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
    There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.

    It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
    It tends to be only the most fanatical MPs who stay on the backbenchers.

    As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May

    Only because of the number of MPs who are “payroll votes”. Judging from the number saying they’ll vote against it, from both Remain and Leave, the majority of backbencers seem to be against it.
    A huge majority. As evidenced by the 3.56pm entry here, over 50% of Tory MPs are now on record as saying they will not vote for May's deal. Nor will more than a handful of Labour MPs.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/22/brext-deal-latest-downing-st-confident-summit-will-go-ahead/
    To be clear, that's half of backbench Tory MPs. May will carry the 150-ish MPs on her payroll, barring any sudden last minute resigations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    I remember the political upheavals of 1973-74, a period memorably brought to the stage a few years ago in the National Theatre's "This House".

    The thought occurs to me that the next 12 months could bring political changes that make 73-74 look like a period of strong & stable government!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    Here's my question. Of the 100 odd (or 87, depending on how you count it) Conservative MPs who've said they'll not back the deal, how many will actually vote against, and how many will abstain?

    I suspect that rather more will abstain than vote against.

    The way I read the average (non mental) backbench Conservative MP is that:

    1. They want to show their Eurosceptic credentials by being opposed to the deal

    2. They don't want the UK to crash out to No Deal Brexit

    Therefore, their ideal scenario is one of:

    1. Enough Labour rebels enabling them to rebel (or abstain). In their mind, the ideal situation is the Boris referendum one where they are on the losing side. So, the deal passes with them getting their opportunity for virtue signalling in.

    2. Theresa May (or someone else) giving them enough of a fig leaf to allow them to vote in favour.

  • The outcome will be deal or remain both of which I am content with
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is neither North America nor Europe.
    Here's the image you're looking for:

    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited November 2018
    image
    eek said:


    Even the typography offends me.
    It’s only got 4 different fonts and random upper and lower case sentences. Do you really think design is high on your typical UKIP supporter’s list of concerns.
    I suspect they do it to scare hipsters away.
    They've got a track record of great design's :wink:

    image
  • image

    eek said:


    Even the typography offends me.
    It’s only got 4 different fonts and random upper and lower case sentences. Do you really think design is high on your typical UKIP supporter’s list of concerns.
    I suspect they do it to scare hipsters away.
    They've got a track record of great design's :wink:

    image
    Mean Is Brexit
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my question. Of the 100 odd (or 87, depending on how you count it) Conservative MPs who've said they'll not back the deal, how many will actually vote against, and how many will abstain?

    I suspect that rather more will abstain than vote against.

    The way I read the average (non mental) backbench Conservative MP is that:

    1. They want to show their Eurosceptic credentials by being opposed to the deal

    2. They don't want the UK to crash out to No Deal Brexit

    Therefore, their ideal scenario is one of:

    1. Enough Labour rebels enabling them to rebel (or abstain). In their mind, the ideal situation is the Boris referendum one where they are on the losing side. So, the deal passes with them getting their opportunity for virtue signalling in.

    2. Theresa May (or someone else) giving them enough of a fig leaf to allow them to vote in favour.

    I was encouraged until you mentioned Boris's plan to lose the referendum - that ended well didn't it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    The outcome will be deal or remain both of which I am content with

    With you there Big_G. Fingers-crossed!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727

    I remember the political upheavals of 1973-74, a period memorably brought to the stage a few years ago in the National Theatre's "This House".

    The thought occurs to me that the next 12 months could bring political changes that make 73-74 look like a period of strong & stable government!

    The background then was simply an inability to govern. If you have the slightest understanding of economics, politics, history, just about anything - then you'll see a huge change - Her name was Margaret Thatcher.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    edited November 2018

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my question. Of the 100 odd (or 87, depending on how you count it) Conservative MPs who've said they'll not back the deal, how many will actually vote against, and how many will abstain?

    I suspect that rather more will abstain than vote against.

    The way I read the average (non mental) backbench Conservative MP is that:

    1. They want to show their Eurosceptic credentials by being opposed to the deal

    2. They don't want the UK to crash out to No Deal Brexit

    Therefore, their ideal scenario is one of:

    1. Enough Labour rebels enabling them to rebel (or abstain). In their mind, the ideal situation is the Boris referendum one where they are on the losing side. So, the deal passes with them getting their opportunity for virtue signalling in.

    2. Theresa May (or someone else) giving them enough of a fig leaf to allow them to vote in favour.

    I was encouraged until you mentioned Boris's plan to lose the referendum - that ended well didn't it?
    Well yes, I thought that too :)

    The good news is that the electorate is so small, and some backbench MPs can count...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    matt said:

    Tonight we have the same polarised argument from the two extremes each proclaiming they will win.

    TM ruling out a second referendum is significant because, as long as she is in power, it will not be brought to parliament

    ERG should be pleased and replacing her now would be folly as it could open the door to a second referendum

    I would expect no 10 have come to the conclusion that by comprehensively rejecting the second referendum it will focus mps minds on the deal v no deal

    As far as trade is concerned negotiating this is beyond the politicians and needs to be put in the hands of successful export business leaders reporting to a dedicated cabinet minister ( not Fox)

    With respect Big_G, Downing St ruling out a second referendum is not worth the paper it's not written on. Look at what they said about a GE last March:

    20 March 2017: "There will be no early general election, Downing Street says"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-may-2017-theresa-may-article-50-brexit-negotiations-labour-polls-a7639246.html
    Perfectly true though. When announced, the election would have been at just the right time. Not early, not late, quite perfect. That proved to be incorrect is neither here nor there.
    Fair point.

    There will not be a 2nd Ref while TMay is PM... there might be a People's Vote though.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    The outcome will be deal or remain both of which I am content with

    With you there Big_G. Fingers-crossed!
    Deal = c. Remain minus control.
    Take back control ...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    Just to add one thing. The fact the letters have not yet gone in is hugely significant. It's because no one really wants to take ownership of No Deal.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    At which point we repudiate
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my question. Of the 100 odd (or 87, depending on how you count it) Conservative MPs who've said they'll not back the deal, how many will actually vote against, and how many will abstain?

    I suspect that rather more will abstain than vote against.

    The way I read the average (non mental) backbench Conservative MP is that:

    1. They want to show their Eurosceptic credentials by being opposed to the deal

    2. They don't want the UK to crash out to No Deal Brexit

    Therefore, their ideal scenario is one of:

    1. Enough Labour rebels enabling them to rebel (or abstain). In their mind, the ideal situation is the Boris referendum one where they are on the losing side. So, the deal passes with them getting their opportunity for virtue signalling in.

    2. Theresa May (or someone else) giving them enough of a fig leaf to allow them to vote in favour.

    I was encouraged until you mentioned Boris's plan to lose the referendum - that ended well didn't it?
    Well yes, I thought that too :)

    The good news is that the electorate is so small, and some backbench MPs can count...
    Those in the ERG clearly can't.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
  • The outcome will be deal or remain both of which I am content with

    With you there Big_G. Fingers-crossed!
    Remainer conservative and leave conservative on BBC both locked in their view and both expect to win by voting down the deal

    Some leavers even promoting remain in fit of pique

    I agree with remainers this is worse than status quo but it does deliver a fair brexit.

    Take the deal down and I join Williamglenn the same day and fight for the second referendum (I refuse to call it a people's vote)

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    Labour should whip to abstain in the meaningful vote, or even vote for it.

    Once it passes, the DUP will desert, the Tories will tear themselves apart, and a VoNC will pass in the spring. IMHO.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Wire mesh in the EU - we could still have our own UK-only, not for export, wire mesh. (Which is the clincher for me - not.)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    Everyone's ok with the deal. It's simply pointless not to be. It is though an awful deal.
  • Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    You will not see that choice again. No government is going to legislate for a referendum again

    Take it now or lose it
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    You will not see that choice again. No government is going to legislate for a referendum again

    Take it now or lose it
    Rabble rousing?
  • A useful summary of what the political declaration means and how it compares with Chequers:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.

    That sounds quite good.

    Everyone should read it.
  • Labour should whip to abstain in the meaningful vote, or even vote for it.

    Once it passes, the DUP will desert, the Tories will tear themselves apart, and a VoNC will pass in the spring. IMHO.

    And then you wake up :)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?

    It means Norway

    It ALWAYS means Norway.
    It comes originally from the NFFO and has been part of their campaigning for many years - since long before Brexit was ever heard of. And originally it referenced Iceland rather than Norway. Which is kind of strange given that Iceland is hardly 'coastal' to Europe
    Tectonically speaking Iceland is in North America but who cares about a misplaced continent between friends?
    Iceland is at the meeting point of the Eurasian and the American plates - and so belongs to both of them, the eastern part to Europe and the western part to America.
    The vast majority of Icelanders live on the North American plate though. But I don’t think there’s any doubt that Iceland is culturally European.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    Yes, but if you apply similar ratios to Tory MPs you only get 70:30 in favour and the deal fails because it’s in the political interests of all the opposition parties for it to be so.

    I think only 30-40 Tory MPs will actively vote against it (not 80) but that’s still too many.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Labour should whip to abstain in the meaningful vote, or even vote for it.

    Once it passes, the DUP will desert, the Tories will tear themselves apart, and a VoNC will pass in the spring. IMHO.

    And then you wake up :)
    Evening Dr P. My yellow pen was busy at the weekend - the Henley on Thames branch.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    Perhaps because the Conservative party is not fit for purpose ?
  • Another big winner for Shadsy as she wasn't on his market.

    https://twitter.com/owen_g/status/1065689752630890496
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
  • Another big winner for Shadsy as she wasn't on his market.

    https://twitter.com/owen_g/status/1065689752630890496

    I don't watch it but I will not be returning in those circumstances
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Strikes me that he is worried about lots of defections
  • Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
    They’re seeing the long term with crystal clarity: a dominant, powerful EU on our doorstep that we will have no say in.
  • Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
    They’re seeing the long term with crystal clarity: a dominant, powerful EU on our doorstep that we will have no say in.
    I'm perfectly happy to leave the EU institutions to themselves, and choose how and when to engage on an issue-by-issue basis.
  • Mortimer said:

    Strikes me that he is worried about lots of defections
    Indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    Perhaps because the Conservative party is not fit for purpose ?
    The voters voted for immigration controls, not f*cking Liam Fox to fly off everywhere and strike trade deals that we already have. Backbench Tory MPs are overwhemingly of the Liam Fox flying off everywhere to strike deals type of Brexit, and they can't stomach the transition. They're wildly out of touch.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    Several reasons I think

    Some Tories really want no deal. they either don't believe the warnings or take the (frankly Leninist) view that we have to smash the existing system in order to build a new one;

    Others are embarrassed that the deal falls so far short of what was promised at the referendum that they can't believe it's the best available and think rejection will lead to the EU making a better offer;

    Still more are just going along with the prevailing view of their friends/colleagues/constituency associations - the herd instinct is often underestimated in politics I think;

    And May's leadership style - to cook up policy in private with a tight circle of advisers, excluding even the responsible minister, and then spring decisions on people when it's too late to change anything - leads to the belief that she must be hiding something unpleasant in the detail - if she was more open and consultative she might have found it easier to take people with her.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
    And the Spectator article was particularly guilty of that.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287

    Another big winner for Shadsy as she wasn't on his market.

    https://twitter.com/owen_g/status/1065689752630890496

    Continuity Antiques Roadshow?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    With an attitude like that, you're not going to get invited to @archer101au's parties.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
    And the Spectator article was particularly guilty of that.
    I agree with you and @Casino_Royale

    It strikes me that more posters agree on this current deal than possibly any other policy, excepting perhaps the FOBT ban, that I can remember.
  • JohnO said:

    Another big winner for Shadsy as she wasn't on his market.

    https://twitter.com/owen_g/status/1065689752630890496

    Continuity Antiques Roadshow?
    'You've been bequeathed these opinions by your great grandfather, would you like to know what they're worth?'
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    A useful summary of what the political declaration means and how it compares with Chequers:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.

    If anyone hasn't read this, they must.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    With an attitude like that, you're not going to get invited to @archer101au's parties.
    Barbies surely?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
  • It will be interesting how the media coverage, the weekend media blitz at the council on sunday, the comments by EU leaders, public opinion, and the influence of constituency chairman play out

    We have already had the DUP core vote farmers furious with them and the Scottish Fishermens Association backing. Tonight the CBI have endorsed it. No doubt other businesses will come out including the car and aerospace industry

    The holiday business which has seen frozen 2019 bookings will surely endorse it together with continuation of EHIC. The european residents here and ours in the EU guaranteed rights. And much more

    And so the mps throw all this away as they play their extreme games

    I am certain of one thing , they will not blame TM
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
  • rcs1000 said:

    A useful summary of what the political declaration means and how it compares with Chequers:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.

    If anyone hasn't read this, they must.
    They must, but most won't.

    Instead they decided what they thought of it before it was analysed, and that's the end of the matter.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    Also between the UK and continental Europe, but JIT, JIT we must have no friction.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    With an attitude like that, you're not going to get invited to @archer101au's parties.
    *sobs uncontrollably in the corner*
  • Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    We do take control of our own waters. This is another misrepresentation which appears to come from people who haven't bothered to read or try to understand the documents.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
    And the Spectator article was particularly guilty of that.
    The idealistic Leavers form a particularly tight social, media and political group, heavily centred in London.

    I suspect there's a lot of peer influencing/pressure going on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    I don't think a UK-UK trade deal has ever been particularly likely.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842

    It will be interesting how the media coverage, the weekend media blitz at the council on sunday, the comments by EU leaders, public opinion, and the influence of constituency chairman play out

    We have already had the DUP core vote farmers furious with them and the Scottish Fishermens Association backing. Tonight the CBI have endorsed it. No doubt other businesses will come out including the car and aerospace industry

    The holiday business which has seen frozen 2019 bookings will surely endorse it together with continuation of EHIC. The european residents here and ours in the EU guaranteed rights. And much more

    And so the mps throw all this away as they play their extreme games

    I am certain of one thing , they will not blame TM

    Apparently elements within the CBI aren't so enamoured of Theresa's Deal as you think:

    http://www.cityam.com/269590/its-not-good-deal-internal-emails-reveal-cbi-doubts-over

    By the way, from a strongly pro-business newspaper, this take on the Withdrawal Agreement:

    http://www.cityam.com/269526/brexit-brino-10-capitulations-theresa-may
This discussion has been closed.