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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile the approval rating of the EU leadership by UK voter

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Not a bad move by May ruling out there'll be no second ref on her watch. She must be getting fed up with the jokers around her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    Someone is very sure Boris will not be the next Tory leader as they are laying £80,000 on Betfair at 9 on that event not occurring.

    Stanley Johnson? :D
    BoJo himself?
    Non zero probability.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Tory Backbencher Bill Wiggin "accidentally" referred to the backstop as the "backstab".
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited November 2018
    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Tory Backbencher Bill Wiggin "accidentally" referred to the backstop as the "backstab".

    Isn't he a character out the Simpsons ?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    1. Given Mr Peston's prediction record....

    2. As many others have pointed out, Mrs May's actions bear little relation to her promises
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    FOR FUCK'S SAKE
  • eek said:

    Someone is very sure Boris will not be the next Tory leader as they are laying £80,000 on Betfair at 9 on that event not occurring.

    I get £10K on my screen. Am I missing something?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    As a democrat, you shouldn't be happy with a No Deal crash because that is supported only by a very small percentage of our democratically elected representatives.

    Accidental No Deal is a real danger but it would not be 'democratic'.
    The voters were warned.

    Is like when the Tories warned about Demon Eyes Blair, given the number of dead brown people on his watch and the GFC, we were right, but the voters voted for him anyway.

    We eventually overturned it when we were proven right.
    Now you've just reminded me how well run the country was while Blair was PM compared with the fucking mess Cameron and May have made of it.
    Unless you were an Iraqi.
    The country = UK in my comment, clearly.

    The Iraq war was a massive mistake and Blair's reputation was irretrievably tarnished as a result...

    ...but he'd still have made a much better fist of Brexit than Cameron/May have done - by a country mile.
    the man who got taken to the cleaners by Chirac ? LOL
    A nice soundbite - why worry about facts eh?

    Cameron obviously wound the EU round his little finger in getting such a good pre-Ref deal haha.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    eek said:

    Someone is very sure Boris will not be the next Tory leader as they are laying £80,000 on Betfair at 9 on that event not occurring.

    I get £10K on my screen. Am I missing something?
    £70k by the sounds of it. (I know, and I did that in my head:smile:)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    TBF, "knowing better" is exactly what we pay them for.

    And then you look at who we actually elect.

  • You are obviously not very well versed in the UK rebate history. Here's a little easy primer for you:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

    Oh but I am.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291

    eek said:

    Someone is very sure Boris will not be the next Tory leader as they are laying £80,000 on Betfair at 9 on that event not occurring.

    Probably Charles. I have always suspected he lights the fire using £50 notes :D
    Guineas, surely?
  • Cameron obviously wound the EU round his little finger in getting such a good pre-Ref deal haha.

    You are right, that is becoming increasingly clear as the alternatives come more into view.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    edited November 2018
    Double post:

    TMs answers are consistent:

    We will leave on 29/3, I take to mean the government will proceed with no deal if a deal is voted down. Probably backed by a No Deal emergency bill.

    No Brexit is a risk... Any No Deal bill will provide opportunity for amendment, up to and including a referendum. But No Brexit will not, in any circumstances, be HMGs doing
  • CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    TBF, "knowing better" is exactly what we pay them for.

    And then you look at who we actually elect.
    I don't know. Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Dianne Abbott are intellectual colossi.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    That rather undermines the credibility of her threat to the Brexiteers that the defeat of her deal means no Brexit. Surely she can't be saying she would try to reverse the process without an election or a referendum?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    felix said:

    I think that is right. Despite the personal problems Brexit causes for me I was happy to respect the result. After the utter nonsense of the past week I now look forward to Britain never leaving the EU and giving all the credit to the ERG.

    That was the thread I nearly wrote last weekend.

    I do fear violence on the street if Brexit isn't delivered though, especially with UKIP now being the political wing of the EDL.
    Given that most people appear to be weary of Brexit and just want the politicians to sort something out, I doubt that they could be motivated to violence. Most people just do not care.

    It is always those on the extremes who threaten violence if they fail to get their way. They are usually called terrorists.
    Quite
  • European Medicines Agency is encouraging all MPs to vote against the deal

    https://twitter.com/ema_campaign/status/1065647599502458881

    You really are falling for so much fake news this week.

    That's not the actual EMA, just some people who like the EMA, it's not an official account.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Chancellor says May's deal will make us poorer

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1065363406352515072
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have a major problem with conforming to EU law, without either a say in shaping it or a bulletproof independent way out.

    So do I. Don't blame me, I voted Remain.
    Well quite. But for that reason 'the deal' is a no-no for me.
    Sure, but that doesn't alter the fact that the alternatives are either 'no deal' or cancelling Brexit. What she has come up with is about the best implementation of Brexit attainable.
    But that does not mean that we should do it.
    It does if you either want us to leave the EU, or want to respect the result of the referendum.
    The most respectful outcome is to ask the public, "we have discovered that can only exit the EU with significant economic or democratic cost. Do you still want to do it?"

    The referendum was about taking back control, the deal does the opposite of that and therefore does not respect the result.

    A second vote gives control back to the public.
    "Oh hello yes, we're the government, and we think you're too thick to really understand the question we asked you the first time. Think carefully this time, you thickie! ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE?"
    Bollox. The government and the rest of us have learned a whole heap of new information. In the light of that it is perfectly normal to think again.

    If you put a deposit on a car and get it inspected by the AA and they find the engine knackered, most people walk away. Brexiteers are like salesman trying to secure the sale of a total pup.
    We haven't learned any new information. The full horrific economic and human cost of a hard brexit was explained *in excruciating detail* by the Remain camp before the referendum, and the great unhosed still want it.

    And no, "I listened to David Davis because I am a very stupid man" will also not get me to take pity on you.

    The electorate made their Hard Brexit bed, let them lie in it.
    Erm, you do realise that we ALL have to lie in it, including several million children who'd no vote in the matter yet will soon grow up into the mess? So, actually, your fundamentalist 'let them eat shit' ideas are idiotic.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    As a democrat, you shouldn't be happy with a No Deal crash because that is supported only by a very small percentage of our democratically elected representatives.

    Accidental No Deal is a real danger but it would not be 'democratic'.
    The voters were warned.

    Is like when the Tories warned about Demon Eyes Blair, given the number of dead brown people on his watch and the GFC, we were right, but the voters voted for him anyway.

    We eventually overturned it when we were proven right.
    Now you've just reminded me how well run the country was while Blair was PM compared with the fucking mess Cameron and May have made of it.
    Unless you were an Iraqi.
    The country = UK in my comment, clearly.

    The Iraq war was a massive mistake and Blair's reputation was irretrievably tarnished as a result...

    ...but he'd still have made a much better fist of Brexit than Cameron/May have done - by a country mile.
    the man who got taken to the cleaners by Chirac ? LOL
    A nice soundbite - why worry about facts eh?

    Cameron obviously wound the EU round his little finger in getting such a good pre-Ref deal haha.
    well since you agree with me on Cameron maybe you can see how badly Blair was mugged the Schroder Chirac tag team.

    Tim nice but dim meets the Sopranos.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    GIN1138 said:

    Well yes as the only route to a new referendum is following Parliament rejecting her deal.

    She can't continue as PM if her deal is rejected as it's basically a vote of no confidence in her leadership.
    May departing the scene soon as her deal collapses under the weight of its inadequacies

    and

    May somehow, inexplicably pulling off support for her deal and taking the plaudits

    each seem to be exquisitely balanced right now. I can't remotely envision where we are in a month.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018

    That rather undermines the credibility of her threat to the Brexiteers that the defeat of her deal means no Brexit. Surely she can't be saying she would try to reverse the process without an election or a referendum?
    She's saying someone else might, which is true. It's looking quite likely now that the nutjobs seem intent on rejecting what they wanted all along.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited November 2018
    []
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    European Medicines Agency is encouraging all MPs to vote against the deal

    https://twitter.com/ema_campaign/status/1065647599502458881

    You really are falling for so much fake news this week.

    That's not the actual EMA, just some people who like the EMA, it's not an official account.
    Please kick my ass. I feel as slow as Andrew Bridgen with a red wine hangover.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Chancellor says May's deal will make us poorer

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1065363406352515072

    Yes, compared to Remain, which is no longer an option.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Anazina said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have a major problem with conforming to EU law, without either a say in shaping it or a bulletproof independent way out.

    So do I. Don't blame me, I voted Remain.
    Well quite. But for that reason 'the deal' is a no-no for me.
    Sure, but that doesn't alter the fact that the alternatives are either 'no deal' or cancelling Brexit. What she has come up with is about the best implementation of Brexit attainable.
    But that does not mean that we should do it.
    It does if you either want us to leave the EU, or want to respect the result of the referendum.
    The most respectful outcome is to ask the public, "we have discovered that can only exit the EU with significant economic or democratic cost. Do you still want to do it?"

    The referendum was about taking back control, the deal does the opposite of that and therefore does not respect the result.

    A second vote gives control back to the public.
    "Oh hello yes, we're the government, and we think you're too thick to really understand the question we asked you the first time. Think carefully this time, you thickie! ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE?"
    Bollox. The government and the rest of us have learned a whole heap of new information. In the light of that it is perfectly normal to think again.

    If you put a deposit on a car and get it inspected by the AA and they find the engine knackered, most people walk away. Brexiteers are like salesman trying to secure the sale of a total pup.
    We haven't learned any new information. The full horrific economic and human cost of a hard brexit was explained *in excruciating detail* by the Remain camp before the referendum, and the great unhosed still want it.

    And no, "I listened to David Davis because I am a very stupid man" will also not get me to take pity on you.

    The electorate made their Hard Brexit bed, let them lie in it.
    Erm, you do realise that we ALL have to lie in it, including several million children who'd no vote in the matter yet will soon grow up into the mess? So, actually, your fundamentalist 'let them eat shit' ideas are idiotic.
    I think it's healthy children should grow up loathing the imbeciles that made them suffer.
  • Looks as if TM has staked her Premiership on no referendum.

    As for the backstop a conservative mp (not sure of his name) said the backstop is illegal under international law. If so ERG should vote it through to get brexit then in time challenge it in law.

    Better than remain winning
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Mrs May said there was no need for a GE in 2017, and there wouldn't be one. She's got form!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It appears that the Tory strategy for flipping the 88 noes is to call them idiots on Twitter until they fall in line.

    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1065645918937067520
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Corbyn's ranting tone today looks very ill-judged. No content just rant.

    Illjudged to whom?

    Pulpstar said:

    The good old "Didn't believe in unicorns hard enough" excuse
    The number of dissident Conservative MPs is going up rather than down at present. If the government has a strategy for getting the sheep back in the pen, it needs to start sending the collies out sooner rather than later.
    I don't think it does. I think it's just hoping that some don't follow through and labour are less united in rejecting it than they seem . Pretty hopeless really, but it's just going through the motions.
    If what is on offer is not what people voted for, as though there was a single prospectus , then we know what should be done. Remainers will be surprised how many converts they are making.

  • CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    As Rafael Behr pointed out yesterday, the problem isn’t “Brussels Belgium” but the “Brussels in their heads”.

    I see two hours on May still standing in the HoC with a thin house...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    We may not, but they will still do it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Anazina said:

    Chancellor says May's deal will make us poorer

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1065363406352515072

    Yes, compared to Remain, which is no longer an option.

    Oh it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Chancellor says May's deal will make us poorer

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1065363406352515072

    Yes, compared to Remain, which is no longer an option.

    Oh it is.
    Remember when May says something is no longer an option, she's lying.

    May lies a lot, and May lies badly. We should really be used to it by now.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Pulpstar said:

    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.

    Do you think with a new leader that a different deal will be available from the EU?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.

    Do you think with a new leader that a different deal will be available from the EU?
    Nope.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    the problem with mocking the old is life only goes in one direction
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.

    Do you think with a new leader that a different deal will be available from the EU?
    Who knows, but it'd be hard to imagine anyone doing worse.

    And at least the UK government would finally be acting in good faith, negotiating in accordance with the referendum result rather than whatever Olly Robbins is spewing this week.
  • currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.

    Do you think with a new leader that a different deal will be available from the EU?
    Well, clearly less than 48 Tory MPs thought so.

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    If there is a referendum on Deal or Remain and TM thinks that Remain is better, she would not be a good advocate for Deal.

    So she has to resign, then no one important would lead the Deal side.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.

    Do you think with a new leader that a different deal will be available from the EU?
    Who knows, but it'd be hard to imagine anyone doing worse.

    And at least the UK government would finally be acting in good faith, negotiating in accordance with the referendum result rather than whatever Olly Robbins is spewing this week.
    Fuck me, do you honestly believe that ?!

    The EU ain't changing the deal because Boris, Raab or David F*cking Davis is in charge.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    the problem with mocking the old is life only goes in one direction
    Personally, I have never been this old before.... and I shall never be this young again.

    As someone whose birthday was earlier this month, I am well aware of the march of time :(
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It ain't. The earliest a referendum could be held is May 2019 - there's a good and detailed analysis here:

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It's a very real threat to politically blow her own head off and have it be replaced by a mutant ERG-DUP hybrid one. It calls the hard remainers bluff I think.
    Unless seven Tories VONC their own Gov't... which leads to Corbyn xD
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It's a very real threat to politically blow her own head off and have it be replaced by a mutant ERG-DUP hybrid one. It calls the hard remainers bluff I think.
    Good point.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Chancellor says May's deal will make us poorer

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1065363406352515072

    Yes, compared to Remain, which is no longer an option.

    Oh it is.
    Remember when May says something is no longer an option, she's lying.

    May lies a lot, and May lies badly. We should really be used to it by now.
    When May decrees in her Imperial magnificence that a change (usually in her personal favour) is in the national interest then we would be churlish to remember that she previously ruled something out as not in the national interest.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It ain't. The earliest a referendum could be held is May 2019 - there's a good and detailed analysis here:

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit
    Greece was able to organize a referendum in one week.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It ain't. The earliest a referendum could be held is May 2019 - there's a good and detailed analysis here:

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit
    That is under normal conditions. If a panic sets in something will be arranged pronto.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It ain't. The earliest a referendum could be held is May 2019 - there's a good and detailed analysis here:

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit
    Greece was able to organize a referendum in one week.
    This ain't Greece - read the document.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)
  • GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It ain't. The earliest a referendum could be held is May 2019 - there's a good and detailed analysis here:

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit
    That is under normal conditions. If a panic sets in something will be arranged pronto.
    No, there is an existing legislative framework. Read the document.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It ain't. The earliest a referendum could be held is May 2019 - there's a good and detailed analysis here:

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/publications/tabs/unit-publications/The_Mechanics_of_a_Further_Referendum_on_Brexit
    Greece was able to organize a referendum in one week.
    This ain't Greece - read the document.
    You're right, we're not as hard working as Greece.

    Let's call it a nice round fortnight.
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It's a very real threat to politically blow her own head off and have it be replaced by a mutant ERG-DUP hybrid one. It calls the hard remainers bluff I think.
    Good point.
    Perhaps why one of the sharper Remainers, Ken Clarke has said he’ll vote for May’s deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It's a very real threat to politically blow her own head off and have it be replaced by a mutant ERG-DUP hybrid one. It calls the hard remainers bluff I think.
    Unless seven Tories VONC their own Gov't... which leads to Corbyn xD
    I think you're misjudging the dynamics. What May is saying to Brexiteers who don't like the Brexit they're getting is "there is no way out unless you personally stand up and back Remain".
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It's a very real threat to politically blow her own head off and have it be replaced by a mutant ERG-DUP hybrid one. It calls the hard remainers bluff I think.
    Good point.
    Perhaps why one of the sharper Remainers, Ken Clarke has said he’ll vote for May’s deal.
    Ken Clarke only announced he's supporting the deal because he knew it was worth -30 Brexiteers opposing it.
  • CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    Brexite voters are hard men and women, covered with tatoos, who love starting fights. Remainers are a bunch of poofs who work in jobs like advertising.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    It's a very real threat to politically blow her own head off and have it be replaced by a mutant ERG-DUP hybrid one. It calls the hard remainers bluff I think.
    Unless seven Tories VONC their own Gov't... which leads to Corbyn xD
    I think you're misjudging the dynamics. What May is saying to Brexiteers who don't like the Brexit they're getting is "there is no way out unless you personally stand up and back Remain".
    And, they do seem to be agreeing, which they weren't supposed to.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_Fear said:

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    Brexite voters are hard men and women, covered with tatoos, who love starting fights. Remainers are a bunch of poofs who work in jobs like advertising.
    Hey I'm a poof but I like staring fights.

    Where do I vote?
  • Sean_Fear said:

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    Brexite voters are hard men and women, covered with tatoos, who love starting fights. Remainers are a bunch of poofs who work in jobs like advertising.
    Hey I'm a poof but I like staring fights.

    Where do I vote?
    Are you covered with tatoos?
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018

    eek said:

    Someone is very sure Boris will not be the next Tory leader as they are laying £80,000 on Betfair at 9 on that event not occurring.

    I get £10K on my screen. Am I missing something?
    £10K is what you can bet. £80K is what they'd pay out.

    (I thought this was a betting site!)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    [deleted - too slow!]
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    May's inability to convince anyone of the merit of her deal means she's going to accidentally convince a fair chunk of Brexiteers that no brexit is better than her bad Deal.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    That rather undermines the credibility of her threat to the Brexiteers that the defeat of her deal means no Brexit. Surely she can't be saying she would try to reverse the process without an election or a referendum?
    She's saying someone else might, which is true. It's looking quite likely now that the nutjobs seem intent on rejecting what they wanted all along.
    Indeed it is. They have been denied the Full English Brexit they imagined was available and seem to have decided that they would rather go hungry than accept a more modest Continental option.
  • Haven’t listened from the beginning - but the last half hour the HoC has seemed more supportive of May than the WA debate.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_Fear said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    Brexite voters are hard men and women, covered with tatoos, who love starting fights. Remainers are a bunch of poofs who work in jobs like advertising.
    Hey I'm a poof but I like staring fights.

    Where do I vote?
    Are you covered with tatoos?
    I have a two small ones, but they're not visible in polite company.
  • To be more exact: No10 have just given wavering Labour MPs who think that May's leadership is an asset to the Conservatives' electoral chances a reason to vote for a 2nd referendum amendment. And conversely for those who think that it isn't.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    I love your optimism. There is no evidence that the second round of negotiations will go any less badly than the first. Instead of a trade deal the settlement deal will win us a used 2CV for 500Bn.
  • You can't increase fule

    as any fule kno
    How about Gathering Winter Fuuuuuuu ....el.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Sean_Fear said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    Brexite voters are hard men and women, covered with tatoos, who love starting fights. Remainers are a bunch of poofs who work in jobs like advertising.
    Hey I'm a poof but I like staring fights.

    Where do I vote?
    Are you covered with tatoos?
    I have a two small ones, but they're not visible in polite company.
    :open_mouth:
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Haven’t listened from the beginning - but the last half hour the HoC has seemed more supportive of May than the WA debate.

    The sense I get is that minds are made up. May isn't going to convince anyone to support her deal that isn't on the government payroll.

    And May can't be bothered to offer any more ground on a deal Parliament has already decided to kill.

    So we're in a period of polite stasis.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    CD13 said:

    What we've got is Parliament agreeing to a referendum and promising to honour the result. Now it's "See, we told you it would be difficult with those bastards in the EU, so we'll just have to stay in. Sorry."

    We, the public, are supposed to say "Fair enough, we know better now, O wise ones."

    Dream on.

    It’s amusing how you think the majority of people actually give a crap about Brexit. They may have voted for it but they are not going to be out on the street in February protesting it. It’s laughable. Do you know the average age of a Brexiteer?
    I agree. If we take their Zimmerframes off them that should stop them getting out to protest ....
    Brexite voters are hard men and women, covered with tatoos, who love starting fights. Remainers are a bunch of poofs who work in jobs like advertising.
    Hey I'm a poof but I like staring fights.

    Where do I vote?
    Are you covered with tatoos?
    I have a two small ones, but they're not visible in polite company.
    :open_mouth:
    image
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,583
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
  • Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
  • Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
    Then they should have read Labour's manifesto.
  • Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
    I don't have much sympathy for anyone who voted Labour thinking Corbyn would move in favour of Remain. He has taken every opportunity to scotch such impressions ever since he got elected.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
    I think Labour have been incredibly fortuitous that their own divisions, vacillations, contradictions, lies, and stupidity over Brexit haven't yet bitten them on the arse.

    Whatever Corbyn has said and done, Labour voters have *always* believed that sooner or later Corbyn would be bounced into supporting Remain.
  • currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If May goes, the DUP's supply and confidence is back on with whichever leader the Tories install, and they'll certainly be a harder brexiteer than May was.

    Do you think with a new leader that a different deal will be available from the EU?
    Not until after 29th March. Then I expect that with the reality of the UK leaving the EU would finally start to negotiate in good faith, rather than to try and contrive a situation where the UK either changed its mind or remained in all but name.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    A wag might say that Nothing Has Changed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
    So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.

    Brave.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
    I think Labour have been incredibly fortuitous that their own divisions, vacillations, contradictions, lies, and stupidity over Brexit haven't yet bitten them on the arse.

    Whatever Corbyn has said and done, Labour voters have *always* believed that sooner or later Corbyn would be bounced into supporting Remain.
    Corbyn is what once upon a time would have been called a Bennite, after the late Tony Benn. Bennites were opposed to the EU!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
    I think Labour have been incredibly fortuitous that their own divisions, vacillations, contradictions, lies, and stupidity over Brexit haven't yet bitten them on the arse.

    Whatever Corbyn has said and done, Labour voters have *always* believed that sooner or later Corbyn would be bounced into supporting Remain.
    Corbyn is what once upon a time would have been called a Bennite, after the late Tony Benn. Bennites were opposed to the EU!
    However, he's also big into the whole party democracy thing, and respecting the will of the members.

    Labour's Brexit policy is exactly what conference voted on, neither Corbyn nor Starmer have attempted to derogate from that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
    So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.

    Brave.
    Whats the big worry about the backstop ?
  • GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
    Completely agree. If the hard core Brexiteers vote against this, it really is ideological grandstanding of the highest (and worst) order. Those scuppering the deal can also have no complaints if we end up remaining.....maybe that's what some of them really want.
  • May's inability to convince anyone of the merit of her deal means she's going to accidentally convince a fair chunk of Brexiteers that no brexit is better than her bad Deal.

    Yes and that has been apparent for a while now, although it has passed May by. See the earlier statements of IDS and Johnson for example.
  • Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
    So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.

    Brave.
    The EU won't want the backstop to kick in, and certainly not for long, because it gives us full access to the Single Market without paying the membership fees and being subject to FoM.
  • Sean_Fear said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am tired of the blackmail arguments from May

    Do my deal or

    1) No deal is inevitable*
    2) No Brexit is inevitable*

    (delete whichever you fear least)

    She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
    Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
    I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.

    So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.

    Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
    +1

    It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
    You're both masochists (by proxy).
    I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.

    There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
    ... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
    I don't have much sympathy for anyone who voted Labour thinking Corbyn would move in favour of Remain. He has taken every opportunity to scotch such impressions ever since he got elected.
    It's self-delusion.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,151
    edited November 2018
    Total mystery why Jezza got such crap A-Level results, despite attending one of the best state schools in the country...

    Fresh from not reading the Draft Withdrawal Agreement, Jeremy Corbyn has (presumably accidentally) linked to a foul mouthed parody account of the Prime Minister, which has twelve followers, and describes itself as a “well known spelling mistake.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/11/22/corbyn-s-wrong-theresa-may/
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
    So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.

    Brave.
    Whats the big worry about the backstop ?
    Well, aside from it being both a democratic and unionist obscenity, there's also the fact that it's completely unnecessary and a living testament to May's weakness and poor negotiating strategy.

    But mostly it's because people fear the EU will use it as a way to trap the UK in indefinite BRINO vassal status indefinitely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018

    Total mystery why Jezza got such crap A-Level results, despite attending one of the best state schools in the country...

    Fresh from not reading the Draft Withdrawal Agreement, Jeremy Corbyn has (presumably accidentally) linked to a foul mouthed parody account of the Prime Minister, which has twelve followers, and describes itself as a “well known spelling mistake.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/11/22/corbyn-s-wrong-theresa-may/

    Could have been worse, given one other possible confusion...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...

    If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)

    Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
    So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.

    Brave.
    The EU won't want the backstop to kick in, and certainly not for long, because it gives us full access to the Single Market without paying the membership fees and being subject to FoM.
    I agree it's unlikely, but that's just yet more evidence that the backstop should never have existed and the only reason May's agreeing to it is because she's botched the negotiations.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Total mystery why Jezza got such crap A-Level results, despite attending one of the best state schools in the country...

    Fresh from not reading the Draft Withdrawal Agreement, Jeremy Corbyn has (presumably accidentally) linked to a foul mouthed parody account of the Prime Minister, which has twelve followers, and describes itself as a “well known spelling mistake.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/11/22/corbyn-s-wrong-theresa-may/

    Some people just don't bother to apply themselves at that age.
  • Total mystery why Jezza got such crap A-Level results, despite attending one of the best state schools in the country...

    Fresh from not reading the Draft Withdrawal Agreement, Jeremy Corbyn has (presumably accidentally) linked to a foul mouthed parody account of the Prime Minister, which has twelve followers, and describes itself as a “well known spelling mistake.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/11/22/corbyn-s-wrong-theresa-may/

    Could have been worse, given one other possible confusion...
    The sort of account Jack Dromey might follow?
This discussion has been closed.