1) No deal is inevitable* 2) No Brexit is inevitable*
(delete whichever you fear least)
She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.
So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.
Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
+1
It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
You're both masochists (by proxy).
I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.
There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
I think Labour have been incredibly fortuitous that their own divisions, vacillations, contradictions, lies, and stupidity over Brexit haven't yet bitten them on the arse.
Whatever Corbyn has said and done, Labour voters have *always* believed that sooner or later Corbyn would be bounced into supporting Remain.
Since 90% of his party members and probably an even higher proportion of MPs are remainers it would be impossible for him not to take that position. Tory Brexiteers who thought he was as committed to leaving as they are were always wide of the mark on this, he is not particularly interested in Europe and it would be impossible for him to deliver Labour support for anything negotiated by May.
I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...
If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)
Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.
Brave.
Not really. The trade talks are a very different beast. Now I am the first to admit that if May is still in charge she will probably be able to screw those up as well but to be honest by that time we will be outside the EU so most of my concerns will have disappeared.
1) No deal is inevitable* 2) No Brexit is inevitable*
(delete whichever you fear least)
She's not saying that. She's saying that either of those could easily be the outcome, which is true enough. There are no other possibilities.
Everything turns on how many Remainers would prefer a crash out Brexit (because it would teach their opponents a lesson) and how many Brexiters would prefer to remain in the EU (because it would punish the traitors on their own side) to any kind of deal.
I'm a democrat, I respect the will of the people, they voted to Leave despite being warned No Deal was a risk.
So if this deal fails, then so be it, we crash out next March.
Not my fault the Leave voters the ignored the excellent advice of experts.
+1
It's about time the people felt the cold hard smack of What They Asked For.
You're both masochists (by proxy).
I'd rather voters think policies were a bit naff than think democracy was a bit naff.
There were two opportunities for the voters to ensure that No Deal wouldn't happen, by voting Remain in 2016 or Lib Dem, Green, PC, SNP and others in 2017.
... and a lot of them voted Labour thinking Labour was anti-Brexit and as the most likely way to clip TMay's wings and it pretty much worked.
I think Labour have been incredibly fortuitous that their own divisions, vacillations, contradictions, lies, and stupidity over Brexit haven't yet bitten them on the arse.
Whatever Corbyn has said and done, Labour voters have *always* believed that sooner or later Corbyn would be bounced into supporting Remain.
I think they'll be right, eventually and by accident.
I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...
If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)
Again worth pointing out that the backstop won't even exist as long as a trade deal is done before the end of the transition period. And with the move towards accepting a technical solution to the border (one of the main arguments against which was it could not be done by March 2019) the Northern Irish position may well turn out to be a non issue.
So what you’re saying is that if the second Brexit negotiations go really, really well there is nothing to worry about.
Brave.
The EU won't want the backstop to kick in, and certainly not for long, because it gives us full access to the Single Market without paying the membership fees and being subject to FoM.
I agree it's unlikely, but that's just yet more evidence that the backstop should never have existed and the only reason May's agreeing to it is because she's botched the negotiations.
Not really surprising. The Great British public can tell the difference between urbane Europeans like Barnier Macron and Merkel when compared to sleazebags buffoons and stick insects like then compare them with stick insects like Farage ohnson and Rees Mogg.
I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...
If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)
GIN, get a grip man, it is garbage, what is happening to you. The trade deal will be phase two of giving what is left away.
Not really surprising. The Great British public can tell the difference between urbane Europeans like Barnier Macron and Merkel when compared to sleazebags buffoons and stick insects like then compare them with stick insects like Farage ohnson and Rees Mogg.
the only difference between Macron and a bag of crap is the bag
I am kind of inching towards May's deal though I have to say...
If only something had been changed with wretched backstop I'd be able to accept the rest (on the proviso May goes before the trade deal negotiations get underway)
GIN, get a grip man, it is garbage, what is happening to you. The trade deal will be phase two of giving what is left away.
4 local by-elections today; Con defences in Enfield, Westminster, and Windsor and Maidenhead, Lab defence in Wirral. Looks like 3 holds but a close fight in Enfield.
4 local by-elections today; Con defences in Enfield, Westminster, and Windsor and Maidenhead, Lab defence in Wirral. Looks like 3 holds but a close fight in Enfield.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
Bring on a referendum between May's deal and a WTO deal.
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
Yes, one of those titans with a proven track record such as Boris, DD or Raab.
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
Makes sense. Appropriate time for a transition in leadership.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 170-ish Tories on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
Expect a sudden expansion in junior ministerial jobs?
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 170-ish Tories on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
Expect a sudden expansion in junior ministerial jobs?
You know, if she gave a government job to every single Tory backbencher who wants one, given all the people who have resigned or would otherwise refuse, she'd still be way short of the votes she needs.
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
Could you give the names of Conservative MPs who you think would be competent to negotiate a trade deal.
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
Could you give the names of Conservative MPs who you think would be competent to negotiate a trade deal.
Geoffrey Cox and that's about it.
I just had an idea. Why don't we hire Michel Barnier to do it?
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
It tends to be only the most fanatical MPs who stay on the backbenchers.
As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
As an aside why are PPSs considered payroll vote when they are not paid?
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
Could you give the names of Conservative MPs who you think would be competent to negotiate a trade deal.
Geoffrey Cox does look to have a better case than most (all?) of the front-runners.....
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
Importantly there's no cake. The PD makes clear that the UK and SM are separate markets and separate jurisdictions.
Chequers's big idea of remaining part of the SM for goods was a fat nono, and the PD represents that.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
"Chequers is the only option. Er, no, wait, I mean THIS is the only option."
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
"Chequers is the only option. Er, no, wait, I mean THIS is the only option."
Weird how that's failed to win people over
This is the only deal on the table. But I have more tables.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
Importantly there's no cake. The PD makes clear that the UK and SM are separate markets and separate jurisdictions.
Chequers's big idea of remaining part of the SM for goods was a fat nono, and the PD represents that.
The PD is more of a Canda+++ than a Chequers---
Ironically, if May had left Davis in place to conclude his, er, Canada +++ negotiations with Barnier, she would have a deal that ERG would be behind - and she would have a real shot of getting it throught he HoC.....
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
"Chequers is the only option. Er, no, wait, I mean THIS is the only option."
Weird how that's failed to win people over
It's a negotiation, which because of the parliamentary arithmetic and the irrationality of some of her own MPs, she's had to carry out with her hands tied behind her back and people kicking her from all sides. Clearly that is the worst possible situation for conducting negotiations, but that's what she was landed with. In the circumstances, it's a pretty good result, but the funny thing is that where it differs from what she originally aimed for, it's extremely close to what the Brexiteers wanted. Now they've got it in sight, they want to trash it.
As a Remainer I see May's deal as best, then we can fight on a Rejoin ticket until the end of the Transition. Might need a minority Labour Government of course, supported by the Rump/Remainer Tories. Possibly not led by Corbyn!
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
Importantly there's no cake. The PD makes clear that the UK and SM are separate markets and separate jurisdictions.
Chequers's big idea of remaining part of the SM for goods was a fat nono, and the PD represents that.
The PD is more of a Canda+++ than a Chequers---
Ironically, if May had left Davis in place to conclude his, er, Canada +++ negotiations with Barnier, she would have a deal that ERG would be behind - and she would have a real shot of getting it throught he HoC.....
Muppetry of the highest order.
No as Davis still had to agree the backstop for NI
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
Notice her frequent references now to 'no Brexit at all'.
She will do everything to get her Deal through but she clearly prefers EUref2 to No Deal
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
Importantly there's no cake. The PD makes clear that the UK and SM are separate markets and separate jurisdictions.
Chequers's big idea of remaining part of the SM for goods was a fat nono, and the PD represents that.
The PD is more of a Canda+++ than a Chequers---
Ironically, if May had left Davis in place to conclude his, er, Canada +++ negotiations with Barnier, she would have a deal that ERG would be behind - and she would have a real shot of getting it throught he HoC.....
Muppetry of the highest order.
No as Davis still had to agree the backstop for NI
If there was earlier success on a deal, he might perhaps have got better tweaks on the back-stop. I suspect he would have at least fought the point more than May appears to have done. But if Davis had to come away with it still in place, then again, ERG would have had to suck it up.
The general notion that May has brought forth a completely shit deal surely means that even if they are convinced they have to vote for the deal, then MPs ensure May goes asap. The betting will then turn to - who won't surrender and get us the best terms when they have to start actual negotiations for the trade deal?
Could you give the names of Conservative MPs who you think would be competent to negotiate a trade deal.
Geoffrey Cox does look to have a better case than most (all?) of the front-runners.....
He does but that's hardly a ringing endorsement.
So why she we be in a hurry to see Boris, DD, Mogg or whoever rushing around the world arranging trade deals ?
4 local by-elections today; Con defences in Enfield, Westminster, and Windsor and Maidenhead, Lab defence in Wirral. Looks like 3 holds but a close fight in Enfield.
Yes heading off to Enfield to GOTV shortly
I applaud your dedication on a grotty November evening. However, I hope you piss people off, who then go and vote for us!
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
Notice her frequent references now to 'no Brexit at all'.
She will do everything to get her Deal through but she clearly prefers EUref2 to No Deal
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
It tends to be only the most fanatical MPs who stay on the backbenchers.
As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May
Only because of the number of MPs who are “payroll votes”. Judging from the number saying they’ll vote against it, from both Remain and Leave, the majority of backbencers seem to be against it.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
"Chequers is the only option. Er, no, wait, I mean THIS is the only option."
Weird how that's failed to win people over
It's a negotiation, which because of the parliamentary arithmetic and the irrationality of some of her own MPs, she's had to carry out with her hands tied behind her back and people kicking her from all sides. Clearly that is the worst possible situation for conducting negotiations, but that's what she was landed with. In the circumstances, it's a pretty good result, but the funny thing is that where it differs from what she originally aimed for, it's extremely close to what the Brexiteers wanted. Now they've got it in sight, they want to trash it.
Yep. May's failure of negotiation was not with the EU, but her own party. Compromise with hardliners and they just bank everything you give them and increase their demands. And the reason she did it is that she was every bit as deluded as the ERG about what was attainable.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
Notice her frequent references now to 'no Brexit at all'.
She will do everything to get her Deal through but she clearly prefers EUref2 to No Deal
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
Not if you exclude “payroll” votes. No deal is far more preferable to May’s deal, as, for very different reasons, is no Brexit.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
It tends to be only the most fanatical MPs who stay on the backbenchers.
As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May
Only because of the number of MPs who are “payroll votes”. Judging from the number saying they’ll vote against it, from both Remain and Leave, the majority of backbencers seem to be against it.
What do they want instead ?
Let me guess - they want it all, they want it now and they want someone else to take responsibility, do the work and deal with the consequences.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
Not if you exclude “payroll” votes. No deal is far more preferable to May’s deal, as, for very different reasons, is no Brexit.
No Deal will bring us to near civil war with riots on the streets in.due course, No Brexit will see a far right surge.
Both are far worse than May's Deal but you cannot compromise with fanatics
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
No that is the reality, No Deal means recession, mass exodus of manufacturing, shortages in the shops, riots and quite possibly the break up of the UK
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
There are 150-ish secretaries of state, ministers, junior ministers and PPSes, 170-ish backbench Tories not on the government payroll. Of those not on the payroll, over 50% are already declared against. She's totally lost her entire backbenches.
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
It tends to be only the most fanatical MPs who stay on the backbenchers.
As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May
Only because of the number of MPs who are “payroll votes”. Judging from the number saying they’ll vote against it, from both Remain and Leave, the majority of backbencers seem to be against it.
What do they want instead ?
Let me guess - they want it all, they want it now and they want someone else to take responsibility, do the work and deal with the consequences.
I doubt there is any consensus between what Remain and Leave supporting MPs opposed to May’s deal want instead.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
"Chequers is the only option. Er, no, wait, I mean THIS is the only option."
Weird how that's failed to win people over
It's a negotiation, which because of the parliamentary arithmetic and the irrationality of some of her own MPs, she's had to carry out with her hands tied behind her back and people kicking her from all sides. Clearly that is the worst possible situation for conducting negotiations, but that's what she was landed with. In the circumstances, it's a pretty good result, but the funny thing is that where it differs from what she originally aimed for, it's extremely close to what the Brexiteers wanted. Now they've got it in sight, they want to trash it.
Yep. May's failure of negotiation was not with the EU, but her own party. Compromise with hardliners and they just bank everything you give them and increase their demands. And the reason she did it is that she was every bit as deluded as the ERG about what was attainable.
The fact that almost nobody who isn't on May's payroll supports the deal is an *astonishing* failure of party management.
She's almost totally neglected to carry her backbenches with her at any step of the way and I suspect it's far too late to get them on board with her now.
For a woman whose majority is so fragile, her aloof and detached party management style seems almost suicidally dumb.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
Not if you exclude “payroll” votes. No deal is far more preferable to May’s deal, as, for very different reasons, is no Brexit.
No Deal will bring us to near civil war with riots on the streets in.due course, No Brexit will see a far right surge.
Both are far worse than May's Deal but you cannot compromise with fanatics
No Deal would be uncomfortable, but predictions of civil war are pretty far-fetched.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
Yep, but it’s going to happen anyway so there’s no point arguing.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
Importantly there's no cake. The PD makes clear that the UK and SM are separate markets and separate jurisdictions.
Chequers's big idea of remaining part of the SM for goods was a fat nono, and the PD represents that.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
Not if you exclude “payroll” votes. No deal is far more preferable to May’s deal, as, for very different reasons, is no Brexit.
No Deal will bring us to near civil war with riots on the streets in.due course
4 local by-elections today; Con defences in Enfield, Westminster, and Windsor and Maidenhead, Lab defence in Wirral. Looks like 3 holds but a close fight in Enfield.
Yes heading off to Enfield to GOTV shortly
I applaud your dedication on a grotty November evening. However, I hope you piss people off, who then go and vote for us!
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
No that is the reality, No Deal means recession, mass exodus of manufacturing, shortages in the shops, riots and quite possibly the break up of the UK
Brought to you by the same people who forecast an immediate recession after the vote to leave. Its just tosh.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
No that is the reality, No Deal means recession, mass exodus of manufacturing, shortages in the shops, riots and quite possibly the break up of the UK
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
Not if you exclude “payroll” votes. No deal is far more preferable to May’s deal, as, for very different reasons, is no Brexit.
No Deal will bring us to near civil war with riots on the streets in.due course, No Brexit will see a far right surge.
Both are far worse than May's Deal but you cannot compromise with fanatics
Project Fear is always the last resort of Remain supporters. Unlike Remain supporters during the Brexit negotiations, however, Leave supporters have not been active at all. I think fears of the far right lack credibility myself.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
At least you are reconciled to that outcome should it occur. I expect many will pretend it came out of nowhere when it happens .
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.
For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
"Chequers is the only option. Er, no, wait, I mean THIS is the only option."
Weird how that's failed to win people over
It's a negotiation, which because of the parliamentary arithmetic and the irrationality of some of her own MPs, she's had to carry out with her hands tied behind her back and people kicking her from all sides. Clearly that is the worst possible situation for conducting negotiations, but that's what she was landed with. In the circumstances, it's a pretty good result, but the funny thing is that where it differs from what she originally aimed for, it's extremely close to what the Brexiteers wanted. Now they've got it in sight, they want to trash it.
Yep. May's failure of negotiation was not with the EU, but her own party. Compromise with hardliners and they just bank everything you give them and increase their demands. And the reason she did it is that she was every bit as deluded as the ERG about what was attainable.
The fact that almost nobody who isn't on May's payroll supports the deal is an *astonishing* failure of party management.
She's almost totally neglected to carry her backbenches with her at any step of the way and I suspect it's far too late to get them on board with her now.
For a woman whose majority is so fragile, her aloof and detached party management style seems almost suicidally dumb.
In a crowded field it is probably her biggest weakness. In fairness she is trying much harder to make her case now but the neglect of any attempt to explain her thinking and build a consensus over the last 2 years remains her biggest hurdle.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
At least you are reconciled to that outcome should it occur. I expect many will pretend it came out of nowhere when it happens .
It will come from having put in charge of Brexit people who didn't believe in Brexit.
It will come from people thinking they were there to 'manage decline' rather than seek out opportunities.
Managed decline didn't work in the past and it doesn't work today.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
I would agree if it wasn't for the backstop.
The backstop is bloody annoying and agreeing it in the first place was gross incompetence but the bigger picture needs to be looked at.
When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.
How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.
That gets us to March.
Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March?
May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. thanks.
At least you are reconciled to that outcome should it occur. I expect many will pretend it came out of nowhere when it happens .
It will come from having put in charge of Brexit people who didn't believe in Brexit.
It will come from people thinking they were there to 'manage decline' rather than seek out opportunities.
Managed decline didn't work in the past and it doesn't work today.
I didn't say there would not be blame to spread. I respect the position that no brexit is better than bad brexit. I just fear Many people will not admit that even if they believe it.
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.
For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
The backstop may be a tad uncomfortable for them, it is completely unbearable to us. It puts all the power in their hands.
As for being outside the structures the problem is that we'll instead be vassals of a European State, that's not progress. At least from inside we can veto future treaty revisions and even budgets, from outside we'll be impotent. Be better to be in the EEA or truly independent or truly remain, this backstop seems the worst of all worlds.
There are, what, 120-ish Tories on the government payroll?
We seem to rapidly moving towards a situation where pretty much 100% of the Tory backbenches is opposed to the deal.
That's an *astonishing* failure of May. Literally the only people who support the deal are those whose job depends on it.
There are 318 Tory MPs, still less than 100 have come out against her Deal
Still way more than they can handle.
Still way too few to force through No Deal without EUref2
If May fails to get her deal through Parliament, no deal will happen automatically on 29th March 2019 unless the Gov does something proactive to prevent it which seems beyond them. Once May loses her bill the gutless wonders on the Tory backbenches will surely find 48 letters between them so that will take over.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
Nope. Over 200 Tory MPs back this Deal and will back May regardless.
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
It really wouldn't. As usual the hysteria about the consequences of no deal is out by several orders of magnitude. But that doesn't mean that May's deal is not a more sensible option better reflecting the result.
I would agree if it wasn't for the backstop.
The backstop is bloody annoying and agreeing it in the first place was gross incompetence but the bigger picture needs to be looked at.
I'm failing to see anything bigger than the backstop. We would be bound to the customs union unless they say otherwise. We will be bound by regulations unless they say otherwise or we shaft Northern Ireland. What's bigger than that?
For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
We have the incentive, but pretty obviously by this stage, not the talent, to negotiate a trade deal.
We can't be seriously considering letting *her* botch the trade negotiations the same way she's botched every other stage of the process.
And, depending on the DUP's whims, either a thin and flaky or non-existent majority, and a fractious, exhausted and divided parliamentary party, the Tories have slim pickings for who'd lead the trade negotiations.
And then there's the ever present threat of Comrade Corbyn getting to negotiate the trade deal instead...
If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.
For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
The backstop may be a tad uncomfortable for them, it is completely unbearable to us. It puts all the power in their hands.
As for being outside the structures the problem is that we'll instead be vassals of a European State, that's not progress. At least from inside we can veto future treaty revisions and even budgets, from outside we'll be impotent. Be better to be in the EEA or truly independent or truly remain, this backstop seems the worst of all worlds.
More than a tad. From their point of view, we would be enjoying privileged access to the single market. without accepting freedom of movement or making any financial contribution
Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?
People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.
“There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.” David Davis 10 October 2016
“Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards.” John Redwood July 17 2016
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.” Liam Fox 20 July 2017
“We're not really interested in a transition deal, but we'll consider one to be kind to the EU.” David Davis 15 November 2016
“I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019.” David Davis 18 January 2017
“Indeed, [a trade deal] would take significantly less than two years. We hold all the cards. We will offer them a deal in response to their pleas for help.” Patrick Minford 14 June 2016
“I am not worried about transitional arrangements. I am prepared to take the economic hit to secure the economic benefits of not being inside the Single Market and being outside the Customs Union. I simply want... a quickie divorce.” Michael Gove 17 November 2016
“We are going to get a deal which is of huge value and possibly of greater value.” Boris Johnson 16 November 2016
“Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. The new trade agreements will come into force at the point of exit, but they will be fully negotiated.” David Davis 14 July 2016
“Trade relations with the EU could be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of coffee.” Gerard Batten 17 February 2017
“Within minutes of a vote for Brexit, CEOs would be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding access to the British market.” David Davis 4 February 2016
“The cost of getting out would be virtually nil and the cost of staying in would be very high.” Boris Johnson 6 March 2016
“I think we could very easily get a better trade deal than we have at the moment.” Douglas Carswell 8 June 2016
“All David Davis needs to say to is: listen guys free trade or WTO?” Tim Martin 2 January 2017
"It will be easy to negotiate a trade deal. It's in the EU's interests." Paul Nutall 17 January 2017
"Nobody ever pretended this would be simple or easy." David Davis 5 September 2017
Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?
Can anyone tell me when this 'independent coastal state' guff began? Has it always been a thing lurking at the back of a drawer awaiting its moment, or is it a Brexit neologism?
People asking themselves whatever happened to the centre: this is it. The idea that if you give extremists a little of what they want, maybe they'll go away and everything will be nice again. As long as your stance is snivelling, apologetic appeasement, you'll never win. The only way to beat the far right/far left (delete as appropriate) is to fight them, relentlessly, tooth and nail, and keep fighting and fighting forever.
And what you get is civil war. I have fought the far right in my younger days and ended up in both the police cells and hospital as a result on more than one occasion. I had hoped that those days were gone but overturning a democratic vote even with the smokescreen of a second referendum will bring them back stronger than ever.
Comments
It feels insulting to Mutti to put her in the same bracket as him.
May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.
If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
It does look like the ONLY way May can get people to support her deal is to make their job depend on it.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2018/nov/22/are-you-ready-to-fight-eight-of-the-most-epic-food-wars-of-all-time?CMP=share_btn_tw
I just had an idea. Why don't we hire Michel Barnier to do it?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship
It's noticeably a looser relationship than the PM was originally hoping for with Chequers, ironically given the brickbats she's been getting from the ultras.
As I said a comfortable majority of all Tory MPs back the Deal and most Tory voters still back May
Chequers's big idea of remaining part of the SM for goods was a fat nono, and the PD represents that.
The PD is more of a Canda+++ than a Chequers---
Weird how that's failed to win people over
Muppetry of the highest order.
Might need a minority Labour Government of course, supported by the Rump/Remainer Tories.
Possibly not led by Corbyn!
She will do everything to get her Deal through but she clearly prefers EUref2 to No Deal
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9380923/5-16112018-BP-EN.pdf/86dc9faa-616d-43d0-9933-e2f5d0af6d42
It seems the crops did not rot in the fields after all.
The idea that this clueless Gov will actually prepare for a no deal though to prevent the ensuing chaos is, however, sadly, inconceivable.
It's just been amateur hour by May.
So why she we be in a hurry to see Boris, DD, Mogg or whoever rushing around the world arranging trade deals ?
Barely 100 MPs back No Deal out of 600, just 32% of voters back No Deal, No Deal would be the Poll Tax x10 followed by the markets crashing deeper than 2008 in all likelihood, Sturgeon calling indyref2 shortly after and huge pressure in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
No Deal would make Suez look like a storm in a teacup
Only because of the number of MPs who are “payroll votes”. Judging from the number saying they’ll vote against it, from both Remain and Leave, the majority of backbencers seem to be against it.
Incidentally there are still British strawberries (and raspberries) in some of the supermarkets and market stalls.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-46307801
Let me guess - they want it all, they want it now and they want someone else to take responsibility, do the work and deal with the consequences.
Both are far worse than May's Deal but you cannot compromise with fanatics
She's almost totally neglected to carry her backbenches with her at any step of the way and I suspect it's far too late to get them on board with her now.
For a woman whose majority is so fragile, her aloof and detached party management style seems almost suicidally dumb.
If the deal fails to pass and a majority in the Commons backs a second referendum, that could well happen.
Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.
None so blind as those who will not see.
For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
It will come from people thinking they were there to 'manage decline' rather than seek out opportunities.
Managed decline didn't work in the past and it doesn't work today.
As for being outside the structures the problem is that we'll instead be vassals of a European State, that's not progress. At least from inside we can veto future treaty revisions and even budgets, from outside we'll be impotent. Be better to be in the EEA or truly independent or truly remain, this backstop seems the worst of all worlds.
We can't be seriously considering letting *her* botch the trade negotiations the same way she's botched every other stage of the process.
And, depending on the DUP's whims, either a thin and flaky or non-existent majority, and a fractious, exhausted and divided parliamentary party, the Tories have slim pickings for who'd lead the trade negotiations.
And then there's the ever present threat of Comrade Corbyn getting to negotiate the trade deal instead...
“Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards.” John Redwood July 17 2016
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.” Liam Fox 20 July 2017
“We're not really interested in a transition deal, but we'll consider one to be kind to the EU.” David Davis 15 November 2016
“I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019.” David Davis 18 January 2017
“Indeed, [a trade deal] would take significantly less than two years. We hold all the cards. We will offer them a deal in response to their pleas for help.” Patrick Minford 14 June 2016
“I am not worried about transitional arrangements. I am prepared to take the economic hit to secure the economic benefits of not being inside the Single Market and being outside the Customs Union. I simply want... a quickie divorce.” Michael Gove 17 November 2016
“We are going to get a deal which is of huge value and possibly of greater value.” Boris Johnson 16 November 2016
“Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. The new trade agreements will come into force at the point of exit, but they will be fully negotiated.” David Davis 14 July 2016
“Trade relations with the EU could be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of coffee.” Gerard Batten 17 February 2017
“Within minutes of a vote for Brexit, CEOs would be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding access to the British market.” David Davis 4 February 2016
“The cost of getting out would be virtually nil and the cost of staying in would be very high.” Boris Johnson 6 March 2016
“I think we could very easily get a better trade deal than we have at the moment.” Douglas Carswell 8 June 2016
“All David Davis needs to say to is: listen guys free trade or WTO?” Tim Martin 2 January 2017
"It will be easy to negotiate a trade deal. It's in the EU's interests." Paul Nutall 17 January 2017
"Nobody ever pretended this would be simple or easy." David Davis 5 September 2017
Was used for things like insurance.
Contiguous coastal states is another thing.
It ALWAYS means Norway.