Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
Their six tests are designed to show whatever they want. read literally they contradict Corbyn because the only outcome they allow is remain
I'm sure everyone can agree at least that the most riveting of the sections of the draft by far (so far at least) are those dealing with administrative cooperation.
Tory Brexiteers are all mouth and no trousers. Talk tough then meekly comply. Not once have they stood up to May but instead, they have allowed her to meekly surrender to the EU. No Cabinet resignations today, no letters in to Graham Brady - what a useless bunch.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
Yes they will oppose, because there is no political advantage to not opposing. They think a Labour government can come of this, which would be a net positive for the country.
Just reached NI section. So far, I don’t see anything that really chafes.
It’s going to pass.
Of course, we haven't considered one scenario. We've spoken of Sinn Fein taking their seats to back Corbyn. What if they panic and take the oath to back this deal, which for them is an excellent deal?
The irony would be delicious and the effect on both the Tories and Labour cataclysmic...
"There’s not that much value in me opining what the final deal will be, though I still think it’s likely that there will be one, probably fudged somewhere between Chequers and Canada. I wouldn’t be sitting too comfortably if I were the DUP – since the deal is quite likely to need some cross-party backing (or abstention) anyway, what’s finding another 10 votes?"
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
Reading all this legalese I am beginning to understand at last why so many coworkers (and PBers) have been seemingly frustrated with my tendency toward excessively long, overly punctuated sentences that last an entire long paragraph.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
Yes they will oppose, because the there is no political advantage to not opposing.
I think that there will be. They will have to explain their opposition and that will be totally unconvincing so may voters will conclude hat they are playing party politics or simply obsessed with getting teh Messiah into number 10.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
I think we’ll find that come the final deal freedom of movement will be replaced by movement that is free!
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
This is TMays best chance. Say 220-250ish Tory ayes, 150-200 noes and a good chunk of Labour abstentions.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
I think we’ll find that come the final deal freedom of movement will be replaced by movement that is free!
Reading all this legalese I am beginning to understand at last why so many coworkers (and PBers) have been seemingly frustrated with my tendency toward excessively long, overly punctuated sentences that last an entire long paragraph.
I hope to enjoy reading any political diaries from November 2018, assuming they ever get published.
At the moment BBC claim that the £ has risen. Given the closeness of that referendum vote, and last year's General Election result it is hard to see how a hard Brexit would have been possible. However, The Tory Party can still show that it is essentially the stupid party, though some of the more stupid MPs might still think twice if the answer to the question who will succeed Theresa May is Jeremy Corbyn.
Any politicians trying to derail this, and putting us at risk of No Deal, will be harshly judged at the next GE - so its only for the real headbangers (JRM et al) and people who fancy being next Tory Leader (B Johnson).
Expect most Tories to fall in line, DUP to oppose or abstain, enough Blue Labbers to get it over the line.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
This is TMays best chance. Say 220-250ish Tory ayes, 150-200 noes and a good chunk of Labour abstentions.
Ultimately, if Labour abstain the deal goes through.
If they support it, it goes through.
If they oppose it - and I think they're just mad enough to - it falls, and we crash out.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
Abstention cannot be acceptable in this circumstance. One cannot absent themselves from a decision this critical.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
Yes they will oppose, because there is no political advantage to not opposing. They think a Labour government can come of this, which would be a net positive for the country.
I'm not sure, there is lots for them to like in this deal
A lo, she lead them to BINO and they did meekly drink.
The symbolism of leaving is so important. That and a bit of tinkering with FoM will satisfy most Leave voters, even though the loons will continue to howl.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
I think we’ll find that come the final deal freedom of movement will be replaced by movement that is free!
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
Abstention cannot be acceptable in this circumstance. One cannot absent themselves from a decision this critical.
So we must assume it is a possibility given Corbyn's notorious moral cowardice and inability to accept responsibility?
But I think he will whip for No. And I don't just say that because of my bet with @TheWhiteRabbit. It's what he does.
We've spoken of Sinn Fein taking their seats to back Corbyn. What if they panic and take the oath to back this deal, which for them is an excellent deal?
Sinn Fein won't sit.
You have to walk to vote, so they wouldn't have to sit.
(Yes, seriously, I know. I was being mischievous. It would be the funniest thing in politics since John Prescott was caught with his trousers down.)
Well even if you exclude all the quasi-religious bollocks about swearing oaths and the legitimacy of the British parliament over part of Ireland, this might be a great deal for Ireland and Northern Ireland and the people thereof, but from SF's point of view, the most likely way to get a united Ireland is for the UK to leave with no deal, suffer an economic collapse and have the people of NI vote to rejoin the EU through uniting with Ireland.
I would say it's slightly more likely that they'd take their seats to vote against the deal.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
Isn't this totally different to what we've heard? I thought Corbyn floated supporting May's deal, and his inner circle, including McDonnell and Abbott, had to talk him out of it
Corbyn and McDonnell aren't going to want to wait 3.5 years for their shot at power - who knows what happens during that period - including them personally getting older.
They want one definite shot - so they want that shot ASAP.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
Quite. Macron and Merkel wittering about Euro Army is a stark reminder. The biggest whopper of the referendum for me was the implication that Remain was the status quo. It wasn’t. The EU army was poo poohed as I recall at the time. Now we have the German Chancellor endorsing it, and the President of France saying it might be needed to fight the USA.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
This is TMays best chance. Say 220-250ish Tory ayes, 150-200 noes and a good chunk of Labour abstentions.
Ultimately, if Labour abstain the deal goes through.
If they support it, it goes through.
If they oppose it - and I think they're just mad enough to - it falls, and we crash out.
A lo, she lead them to BINO and they did meekly drink.
The chances of this getting through the Commons are absolutely negligible.
Were the ERG to think that there is a chance of a Commons majority for May's deal, then the letters would go in now in a coordinated way. They would have to risk May surviving a no confidence vote.
Much better for the ERG to hold off, let May lose the Commons vote and then immediately force a confidence vote in May's leadership to finish her off.
Tory Brexiteers are all mouth and no trousers. Talk tough then meekly comply. Not once have they stood up to May but instead, they have allowed her to meekly surrender to the EU. No Cabinet resignations today, no letters in to Graham Brady - what a useless bunch.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
This is TMays best chance. Say 220-250ish Tory ayes, 150-200 noes and a good chunk of Labour abstentions.
Ultimately, if Labour abstain the deal goes through.
If they support it, it goes through.
If they oppose it - and I think they're just mad enough to - it falls, and we crash out.
Corbyn and McDonnell aren't going to want to wait 3.5 years for their shot at power - who knows what happens during that period - including them personally getting older.
They want one definite shot - so they want that shot ASAP.
Good luck to them.
I want the Tories out at all costs. I'd even vote MRLP to get Con out at this point...
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
Yes they will oppose, because there is no political advantage to not opposing. They think a Labour government can come of this, which would be a net positive for the country.
I'm not sure, there is lots for them to like in this deal
But as has been speculated, they may well seek to vote down, get in power somehow, then negotiate a deal that is largely similar. To be fair Labour have at least been quite open that their focus is on taking over the government before other considerations.
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
This is TMays best chance. Say 220-250ish Tory ayes, 150-200 noes and a good chunk of Labour abstentions.
Ultimately, if Labour abstain the deal goes through.
If they support it, it goes through.
If they oppose it - and I think they're just mad enough to - it falls, and we crash out.
Or we Remain. If the ECJ has ruled that A50 notifications can be withdrawn.
I am curious at how some of the dates in the document are arrived at for various things to apply post transition period etc, from 3 months to 9 months, or as in article 140 on outstanding commitments, when an estimate of remaining amounts to be paid can be made (no earlier than 31 Dec 2028).
Still a long way to go - other people read very fast!
Now the deal has been published, do we think that Labour will still oppose it given that it does seem a reasonable deal and that their six tests are just nonsense
The question is not whether Corbyn opposes it, because he will. Reflexively. It's what he does, and as he doesn't have a basic grasp of what's at stake he won't know what damage he would be doing by voting it down.
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
Abstention cannot be acceptable in this circumstance. One cannot absent themselves from a decision this critical.
So we must assume it is a possibility given Corbyn's notorious moral cowardice and inability to accept responsibility?
But I think he will whip for No. And I don't just say that because of my bet with @TheWhiteRabbit. It's what he does.
don't worry, I remember
I am pleased it is turning into a very interesting bet
Tory Brexiteers are all mouth and no trousers. Talk tough then meekly comply. Not once have they stood up to May but instead, they have allowed her to meekly surrender to the EU. No Cabinet resignations today, no letters in to Graham Brady - what a useless bunch.
Fear of a Corbyn government will do that.
John McDonnell’s economic illiteracy goes unchallenged. His latest outpouring - collective ownership of all land which has improvershed every economy where it has been tried, went unchallenged by everyone except Guido. If this agreement is all the Tories have to offer the electorate and for which they have abandoned an entire domestic policy agenda, there will be a Labour landslide - despite Corbyn.
Bottom line is, if Brexit's about immigration, then this is a superb deal.
If it's about sovereignty, it's not good, in fact it's bloody awful, but it has the potential to be adapted gradually over time in a less painful manner and is therefore acceptable.
If it's about internal party politics of the Tories, it's an unmitigated fiasco.
If it's to watch Labour and the Liberal Democrats contort on the hook of their own hypocrisy, it's funny.
But the key thing people need to grasp is it is this, or it is leave with no deal. That on its own should be enough for Remainers to support it. And the fact that we are leaving should see Brexiteers by and large accept it.
Yes, the Farages and Blairs and Rees Moggs and Sturgeons will stamp and shout and scream and generally behave like spoiled three year olds. But I think the country will ultimately back it.
If MaxPB and welshowl back it (however reluctantly), I’d guess that means at least three quarters of Brexiteers will. And a similar proportion of Remainers.
Can Parliament risk pissing off that many voters ?
They can risk it.
In the same way that England's batsmen can risk playing shots on a turning wicket against a spinner.
Worked for Buttler and Curran. Don’t think there’s anyone in parliament with that kind of skill, though.
To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
Yes, incorrectly spelled Alistair is right. It is pretty much the best possible version of a shit sandwich. But the only actual options when this started, were No Deal, Remain or Vassal state.
Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
Why not>??. If its passed in Parliament. Its legit.
The poll tax passed Parliament.
If it is passed, and I do not think it will be even on a second go, I feel pretty confident in predicting that one or both main parties (at different times perhaps) will spend years talking about how terrible it is, blaming it for everything, without actually seeking to reopen any of it even if they could.
The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
If you say so. It's still dozens of votes against which are not, so far, being countered by dozens of reluctant - 'fine, I'll vote for it I guess' comments from the other side.
A lo, she lead them to BINO and they did meekly drink.
The symbolism of leaving is so important. That and a bit of tinkering with FoM will satisfy most Leave voters, even though the loons will continue to howl.
End to FoM, end to ECJ, end to CAP, end to CFP, end to service regulations. If that's symbolism, I'm a big fan. The nutcases on both Remain and Leave will be upset but the sensible eurosceptic middle shpuld be very happy. All those criticizingnthe deal can't even find anything specific to bash about it.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
Best available deal or not, it has no advantages or merits. Immigration is unresolved; it says nothing about future trade and therefore leaves open whether we will still have to pay for trade but it does tie us to a common rule book over which we have no say and tells NI they don’t count.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
The more the usual suspects moan, I wonder if silence would have been more ominous for TMay... All the wailing might indicate weakness . Or is that me being too hopeful...
A lo, she lead them to BINO and they did meekly drink.
The symbolism of leaving is so important. That and a bit of tinkering with FoM will satisfy most Leave voters, even though the loons will continue to howl.
End to FoM, end to ECJ, end to CAP, end to CFP, end to service regulations. If that's symbolism, I'm a big fan. The nutcases on both Remain and Leave will be upset but the sensible eurosceptic middle shpuld be very happy. All those criticizingnthe deal can't even find anything specific to bash about it.
I’ve read the deal in full tonight, and the political declaration too.
On balance, I’d vote for it to move us on. It’s a fair compromise.
To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
Yes, incorrectly spelled Alistair is right. It is pretty much the best possible version of a shit sandwich. But the only actual options when this started, were No Deal, Remain or Vassal state.
Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
Yep.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
Best available deal or not, it has no advantages or merits. Immigration is unresolved; it says nothing about future trade and therefore leaves open whether we will still have to pay for trade but it does tie us to a common rule book over which we have no say and tells NI they don’t count.
Comments
If this reaction is typical there is reason for some optimism.
I) Post March 2019
2) Post December 2020
https://twitter.com/northantsfire/status/1062745691674607616
"There’s not that much value in me opining what the final deal will be, though I still think it’s likely that there will be one, probably fudged somewhere between Chequers and Canada. I wouldn’t be sitting too comfortably if I were the DUP – since the deal is quite likely to need some cross-party backing (or abstention) anyway, what’s finding another 10 votes?"
The question is, if he whips the vote do his MPs break ranks? That's the imponderable part.
If McDonnell were in charge I think he'd whip abstention. That would be the cakeist approach they've pursued all along with their empty slogans and meaningless Tests. It would allow them to deliver Brexit, show how split the government is, and say to their Remain-leaning supporters, 'Sorry, but think how much worse it could have been.' It is the smart move.
But does Corbyn have the nouse to see it? I'm doubtful.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
Not been keeping track of things today - how has the text been received?
I hope to enjoy reading any political diaries from November 2018, assuming they ever get published.
At the moment BBC claim that the £ has risen. Given the closeness of that referendum vote, and last year's General Election result it is hard to see how a hard Brexit would have been possible. However, The Tory Party can still show that it is essentially the stupid party, though some of the more stupid MPs might still think twice if the answer to the question who will succeed Theresa May is Jeremy Corbyn.
Expect most Tories to fall in line, DUP to oppose or abstain, enough Blue Labbers to get it over the line.
If they support it, it goes through.
If they oppose it - and I think they're just mad enough to - it falls, and we crash out.
Useful prevention of state aid for four years following transition too. Ties any future McMao’s hands in the near term.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1062810905690415114
But I think he will whip for No. And I don't just say that because of my bet with @TheWhiteRabbit. It's what he does.
I would say it's slightly more likely that they'd take their seats to vote against the deal.
They want one definite shot - so they want that shot ASAP.
Were the ERG to think that there is a chance of a Commons majority for May's deal, then the letters would go in now in a coordinated way. They would have to risk May surviving a no confidence vote.
Much better for the ERG to hold off, let May lose the Commons vote and then immediately force a confidence vote in May's leadership to finish her off.
Should pass then.
Indeed, she is a moron. Her departure would be a major bonus of the deal.
I want the Tories out at all costs. I'd even vote MRLP to get Con out at this point...
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
Which is tragic, becuase otherwise its cast of enemies would be the best possible argument for supporting this deal.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1062805789629390856
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1062820924565712896
Still a long way to go - other people read very fast!
Someone on a computer can probably search the doc...
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1062822975299350529
favours the deal.
Do you wish to
a) Cancel Brexit
b) re-introduce hanging...
I am pleased it is turning into a very interesting bet
Don’t think there’s anyone in parliament with that kind of skill, though.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
Or some word beginning with r anyways.
Presumably transition to Dec 2020 staying in Single Market would prevent exchange controls up to Dec 2020?
Position after that I don't know - hence my question.
Difficult to see how no deal could be worse.
On balance, I’d vote for it to move us on. It’s a fair compromise.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
I expect it to fail. At least the first time.