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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    Fudge was all we were going to get.

    May needs to deliver fudge otherwise Sturgeon delivers SindyRef2 this time with JK Rowling doing acerbic tweets in support of Indy.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    eek said:

    I've been out for dinner with my parents - who have come up with what they think is the perfect question for any second referendum.

    Do you wish to
    a) Cancel Brexit
    b) re-introduce hanging...

    Dressed all in leather with armbands?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.

    I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
    20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstain

    I think it will squeak past eventually.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    So if it takes 2 years to secure agreement to kick the can for 2 more years, the next 2 years will result in....
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Mortimer said:

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    Yep.

    My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
    Finally people are actually focusing on the content of the deal. And it's a good one.
  • Guardian liveblog described that tweet as "My colleague Heather Stewart on reports that a major resignation from the cabinet could be on the cards later tonight" btw
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.

    I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.

    Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)

    If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
    I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.

    Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.

    It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.


    Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.
  • Mortimer said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.

    I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
    20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstain

    I think it will squeak past eventually.
    CR's estimate is not far off mine so I think he is already assuming ~15 Labour votes in favour
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Mortimer said:

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    Yep.

    My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
    Similarly anyone who's saying FoM is dead.
    It ain't. On the day after Brexit Day next year... anyone from anywhere in the EU or EEA who could come here today could come here then. And stay. With exactly the same rights and privileges as today.
    All the way until 2021 at least, and if they're here by then, their rights to live and work here are protected in perpetuity.
    And, if we still haven't resolved things by then, we'll see an extension to the transition period (my kneejerk odds on that are better than even: both the EU and the UK Government love giving that can another kick.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Does she want to lose this vote? I'm not sure encouraging the stop Brexit brigade is necessarily a good idea.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I can see why the ERG were trying to set the media narrative last night, they know the public will like this deal when they read it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 2018
    Theresa May's final betrayal.

    Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.

    Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    Tom Kibasi, IPPR


    @TomKibasi
    Follow Follow @TomKibasi
    More
    #WithdrawalAgreement is very strong on preventing state aid but much weaker on workers' rights and environmental protections. The non-regression clauses are stronger than a typical Free Trade Agreement but far weaker than current EU requirements. Reflects Govt & EU priorities.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Any hiccups anyone notices on how this joint committee responsible for application of the agreement is supposed to work?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    The future relationship could mean rejoining. It’s very open. With Brexit delivered on 29 Mar, the referendum is satisfied, we are then free to rejoin at any point. Maybe give it a couple of weeks.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.

    I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
    20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstain

    I think it will squeak past eventually.
    CR's estimate is not far off mine so I think he is already assuming ~15 Labour votes in favour
    Yes sorry I assumed that too. I think Nick’s estimate of 6 is way too low...
  • Theo said:

    Alistair said:

    A lo, she lead them to BINO and they did meekly drink.

    The symbolism of leaving is so important. That and a bit of tinkering with FoM will satisfy most Leave voters, even though the loons will continue to howl.

    End to FoM, end to ECJ, end to CAP, end to CFP, end to service regulations. If that's symbolism, I'm a big fan. The nutcases on both Remain and Leave will be upset but the sensible eurosceptic middle shpuld be very happy. All those criticizingnthe deal can't even find anything specific to bash about it.

    In practical terms, there is no end to anything. Everything pretty much stays the same. But the symbolism is very important and, given the alternative, most folk will live with it - as this thread demonstrates.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    tlg86 said:

    Does she want to lose this vote? I'm not sure encouraging the stop Brexit brigade is necessarily a good idea.
    Unless it is her endgame.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    Any hiccups anyone notices on how this joint committee responsible for application of the agreement is supposed to work?

    It assumes good faith, and yet admits the EU will be one of the partners?
  • kle4 said:

    To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.

    Best available deal or not, it has no advantages or merits. Immigration is unresolved; it says nothing about future trade and therefore leaves open whether we will still have to pay for trade but it does tie us to a common rule book over which we have no say and tells NI they don’t count.

    Difficult to see how no deal could be worse.
    You can have remain if you prefer.
    Not with Article 50 filed
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    Yep.

    My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
    Similarly anyone who's saying FoM is dead.
    It ain't. On the day after Brexit Day next year... anyone from anywhere in the EU or EEA who could come here today could come here then. And stay. With exactly the same rights and privileges as today.
    All the way until 2021 at least, and if they're here by then, their rights to live and work here are protected in perpetuity.
    And, if we still haven't resolved things by then, we'll see an extension to the transition period (my kneejerk odds on that are better than even: both the EU and the UK Government love giving that can another kick.
    Yep that’s right.

    As welshowl said, the WA gives us the freedom to obtain freedom. I’d vote for it in a heartbeat.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited November 2018
    glw said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.

    I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.

    Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)

    If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
    I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.

    Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.

    It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.


    Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.
    If Cameron had come back with this (or put another way if the EU had had the wit to take the UK’s severe disgruntlement seriously and offered it), it would’ve walked the Referendum at a canter.

    Edit: can you walk at a canter?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.

    Yes, incorrectly spelled Alistair is right. It is pretty much the best possible version of a shit sandwich. But the only actual options when this started, were No Deal, Remain or Vassal state.
    Perhaps we could be villeins instead?

    With globalisation everyone is a vassal state to a greater or lesser extent..the argument is a nonsense...

    Our trading interests obviously are best served with Europe....we never did the political stuff well, so May's deal is OK. I'd probably vote for it
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    kle4 said:

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    So if it takes 2 years to secure agreement to kick the can for 2 more years, the next 2 years will result in....
    The next can-kick should be a lot easier. No need to get it through Parliament or anything. We sign up to this and the Joint Committee (chaired by one UK Minister and one EU Commissioner) can make the decision to extend it (My copy says "until December 20XX"; do we know what the XX bit refers to, or does it mean either it's not yet decided or the Joint Committee can decide as long as it's before the end of the century?) and that's binding on both the EU and UK.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,747
    welshowl said:

    glw said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.

    I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.

    Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)

    If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
    I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.

    Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.

    It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.


    Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.
    If Cameron had come back with this (or put another way if the EU had had the wit to take the UK’s severe disgruntlement seriously and offered it), it would’ve walked the Referendum at a canter.
    Bizarre. Cameron wasn’t negotiating to leave the EU.
  • Guardian liveblog described that tweet as "My colleague Heather Stewart on reports that a major resignation from the cabinet could be on the cards later tonight" btw

    If it happens it happens now - 10 o clock news time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May's final betrayal.

    Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.

    Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?
    I don't think there was any outcome which work out well for them, they are too split.

    I also don't see why there is a need to get hysterical about May and co 'threatening' their colleagues and Brexit voters. If those count as threats then they have been on the receiving end of plenty themselves. Moreover, May is being accurate in saying remain is a risk to voting this down. It's not certain, and people will be perfectly principled to say no deal is better than a shit deal, but robust language is expected in political debate, as May's opponents use to their advantage all the time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Mortimer said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.

    I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
    20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstain

    I think it will squeak past eventually.
    How very EU.....keep voting until you get the result required!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    Mortimer said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.

    I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
    20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstain

    I think it will squeak past eventually.
    Can we see any DUP, LD or minor party break away support or abstention just to narrow another 3 or 4 more votes? Lamb perhaps?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    That would be Olympic-level can kicking!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
  • Do not weep like a woman for what you could not hold as a man.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    This one is a corker

    Article 167

    The Union and the United Kingdom shall at all times endeavour to agree on the interpretation and application of this Agreement, and shall make every attempt, through cooperation and consultations, to arrive at a mutually satisfactory resolution of any matter that might affect its operation.

    Also, does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning? Otherwise I'm not sure why it needs to be repeated so often within the document - if you don't include it are you permitted to do things in bad faith by default?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    currystar said:

    I can see why the ERG were trying to set the media narrative last night, they know the public will like this deal when they read it

    Because we have read the document.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Entire Channel Island could be evacuated after power company vows to cut off electricity amid pay row"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sark-power-electricity-power-supply-channel-islands-government-a8633556.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    glw said:

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
    EU membership without the good bits.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    glw said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.

    I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.

    Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)

    If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
    I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.

    Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.

    It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.


    Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.
    If Cameron had come back with this (or put another way if the EU had had the wit to take the UK’s severe disgruntlement seriously and offered it), it would’ve walked the Referendum at a canter.
    Bizarre. Cameron wasn’t negotiating to leave the EU.
    No to reform it. They weren’t remotely interested. If we had been offered no FOM, CAP, CFP, but CU with arbitrated opt out in 23.6.16. - Would’ve flown.
  • Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    LOL Wait till the Brexiteers find out about that one....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    glw said:

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.

    I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.

    The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
  • kle4 said:

    This one is a corker

    Article 167

    The Union and the United Kingdom shall at all times endeavour to agree on the interpretation and application of this Agreement, and shall make every attempt, through cooperation and consultations, to arrive at a mutually satisfactory resolution of any matter that might affect its operation.

    Also, does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning? Otherwise I'm not sure why it needs to be repeated so often within the document - if you don't include it are you permitted to do things in bad faith by default?

    it has some meaning but largely it is just framing for obligations that are not absolute. So for example we can't agree to agree a replacement for the Irish protocol, so we have to agree to use good faith to get there.

    Under English law, we would not usually regard a party as needing good faith. Until 30 years ago it was almost unheard of.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    That would be Olympic-level can kicking!
    It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XX
  • Mortimer said:

    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    That would be Olympic-level can kicking!
    It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XX
    No I think it will stay. I think it just means it has to be extended by a number of whole years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    glw said:

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
    There were attempts right from the beginning to imply, falsely, that only one type of Brexit would be true Brexit.

    That doesn't mean this deal is something which has to be supported by any Brexiter more stern than my own good self, it could be opposed for very principled reasons as not being good enough (despite the risk of remain as a result), but it was suggested a long time ago that given the closeness of the vote, a soft brexit was technically the closest to matching the pubic mood.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Jonathan said:
    Perhaps she needs some work done on her allotment ?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May's final betrayal.

    Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.

    Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?
    It won't turn out well for the Conservatives but I am more concerned about the future of the Country not a party that has been taken over by one issue lunatics. The trouble is a different sort of lunatic has taken Labour over. At one time parties used to vie on optimising the economy whether through the liberalisation of markets to harnessing the white heat of technology. Now we seem to have a race between the two parties infected with the proposition of who can screw the economy up the quickest and longest!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Entire Channel Island could be evacuated after power company vows to cut off electricity amid pay row"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sark-power-electricity-power-supply-channel-islands-government-a8633556.html

    Blimey.

    That is truly epic blackmail. Even the EU would blush at what's going on there.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Jonathan said:
    Defence. Definitely. He knows so many soldiers of many countries - Palestine, Libya, Russia, Northern Ireland...
  • ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Entire Channel Island could be evacuated after power company vows to cut off electricity amid pay row"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sark-power-electricity-power-supply-channel-islands-government-a8633556.html

    Blimey.

    That is truly epic blackmail. Even the EU would blush at what's going on there.
    context is everything, apparently there are only 400 of them and this is a personal dispute
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Andrew said:

    glw said:

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.

    I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.

    The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.
    Indeed - what a confused set of instructions we the public provided with this parliament!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Mortimer said:

    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    That would be Olympic-level can kicking!
    It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XX
    The previous version had 2XXX :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    This one is a corker

    Article 167

    The Union and the United Kingdom shall at all times endeavour to agree on the interpretation and application of this Agreement, and shall make every attempt, through cooperation and consultations, to arrive at a mutually satisfactory resolution of any matter that might affect its operation.

    Also, does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning? Otherwise I'm not sure why it needs to be repeated so often within the document - if you don't include it are you permitted to do things in bad faith by default?

    it has some meaning but largely it is just framing for obligations that are not absolute. So for example we can't agree to agree a replacement for the Irish protocol, so we have to agree to use good faith to get there.

    Under English law, we would not usually regard a party as needing good faith. Until 30 years ago it was almost unheard of.
    THanks
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2018
    Jonathan said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.
    And that's the Truth.

    This is more serious for the Tory party than Maastricht.

    Now the rebels are Defenders of the Tory Manifesto, the Referendum Result, and they've got this Minority government's majority (the DUP) with them on a Point of Principle.

    And just like John Smith, Corbyn isn't going to blink.

    Looking good.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    edited November 2018
    Yes, this thing is predictably awful - a glorified delaying tactic that leaves it to some poor soul to sort out in the future. Its only selling point is that it’s not the nihilistic cliff edge. Those who led us down this miserable blind alley should cringe in shame.
  • currystar said:

    The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal

    Owen Jones straight out the blocks to condemn, so the headbanger wing of the Labour party will moan.

    Plenty of Lab MPs in northern heartland Leave voting seats will have pause for thought.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Do not weep like a woman for what you could not hold as a man.
    Sospiro del Moro?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    So what happens if this all gets through, and then the next election is won by a party promising to rip it all up and leave the CU anyway?
  • Jonathan said:
    “Jeremy, I promise if you vote this through I’ll abolish the monarchy and change the national anthem to The Internationale...”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited November 2018

    Mortimer said:

    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    That would be Olympic-level can kicking!
    It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XX
    No I think it will stay. I think it just means it has to be extended by a number of whole years.
    When I was in a maternity contract, they didn't want to put an end date on it because they didn't know when she would be back. So it officially ends on the 31st December 9999.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May's final betrayal.

    Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.

    Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?
    I don't think there was any outcome which work out well for them, they are too split.

    I also don't see why there is a need to get hysterical about May and co 'threatening' their colleagues and Brexit voters. If those count as threats then they have been on the receiving end of plenty themselves. Moreover, May is being accurate in saying remain is a risk to voting this down. It's not certain, and people will be perfectly principled to say no deal is better than a shit deal, but robust language is expected in political debate, as May's opponents use to their advantage all the time.
    To be stabbed from the front with a hot knife, accused of putting a suicide vest on Britain. Plenty of nastiness from both sides overall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    shiney2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.
    And that's the Truth.

    This is more serious for the Tory party than Maastricht.
    The price of a deal is the collapse of the government as far as I can see, since it requires masses of Labour votes, and as a result the ERG lot and the DUP will paralyze government and there will be no option but to have a GE in 2019, which Corbyn will win.

    On that basis Corbyn should give a nod and a wink to enough Labour people to get it through, frankly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Mortimer said:

    Evolve Politics


    @evolvepolitics
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:

    31st December 2099

    That would be Olympic-level can kicking!
    It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XX
    Really? You think...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:
    Ambassador to Venezuela - you know that socialist paradise he used to bang on about - well, until they ran out of toilet paper and the women of the country turned to prostitution to try and put food on the table.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    currystar said:

    The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal

    Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?
    Radical idea I know...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    tlg86 said:

    So what happens if this all gets through, and then the next election is won by a party promising to rip it all up and leave the CU anyway?

    Rock hard Brexit.

    Our ability to leave full stop, is utterly unconstrained. It’s just there would be consequences potentially.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    tlg86 said:

    So what happens if this all gets through, and then the next election is won by a party promising to rip it all up and leave the CU anyway?

    The transition arrangements are ripped up by the EU and even more chaotic than just no dealing from the start, I would guess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    dixiedean said:

    currystar said:

    The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal

    Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?
    Radical idea I know...
    If I've been able to read it all the way through by now, it's a bit worrying if Starmer can't. No wonder the CPS was a shambles on his watch.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    "No deal is better than a bad deal."

    It's s simple sentence but it can be understood syntactically in two ways:

    1. A bad deal is worse than no deal.
    2. There is no deal better than a bad deal.

    It seems that, perversely, Mrs May understands it as (2).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    Jonathan said:

    glw said:

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
    EU membership without the good bits.
    The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    The Brexit withdrawal agreement states that the UK will have to reimburse the EU for vast amounts of equipment paid for by EU Euratom nuclear research and development funding.

    The EU supplied £65m every year to the UK under this scheme.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    shiney2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.
    And that's the Truth.

    This is more serious for the Tory party than Maastricht.

    Now the rebels are Defenders of the Tory Manifesto, the Referendum Result, and they've got this Minority government's majority (the DUP) with them on a Point of Principle.

    And just like John Smith, Corbyn isn't going to blink.

    Looking good.
    Yep, good day to be a leaver.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    Andrew said:

    glw said:

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.

    I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.

    The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.
    Yes, as long as we actually leave the EU I will personally be satisified that the referendum has been honoured. Trade without a lot of the political/social stuff? Sign me up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    The Brexit withdrawal agreement states that the UK will have to reimburse the EU for vast amounts of equipment paid for by EU Euratom nuclear research and development funding.

    The EU supplied £65m every year to the UK under this scheme.

    Don’t worry , we get a load of radioactive shite back.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.

    These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.
    I know
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Jonathan said:

    glw said:

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
    EU membership without the good bits.
    The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.
    Those are the only good bits!?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    glw said:

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.

    I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.

    The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.
    Yes, as long as we actually leave the EU I will personally be satisified that the referendum has been honoured. Trade without a lot of the political/social stuff? Sign me up.
    Two weeks, maybe three, four max. Then back in.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Jonathan said:

    glw said:

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
    EU membership without the good bits.
    The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.
    As a socialist how can you support the single currency? The EU uses it as a form of economic colonialism. Do as we say or your banking system gets it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    dixiedean said:

    currystar said:

    The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal

    Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?
    Radical idea I know...
    Well, while he is sure to reject it, he is sensible enough to at least find the easiest bits to do so with.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    If this passes in the HoC, which is a big "if":

    The Conservative Party remains riven on Brexit. The ERG tendency now have a living-memory grievance to seethe against. Cameron's pledge to stop the Tories "banging on about Europe" has failed.

    They have also holed themselves under the waterline in terms of future support. They have identified themselves with a policy favoured only by the old. Never mind whether this is a soft or hard Brexit in reality, we live in an age of identity politics: internationalism is the identity of the young, Brave Britain Going It Alone is the identity of the old.

    Fortunately for the Tories, the other parties (in England and Wales, at least) are beyond hopeless right now, so they live to fight another day. But if either Labour or the Lib Dems finally grow a pair, the Conservatives are in serious trouble.

    The best result for Corbyn is if he whips a "no" but the bill passes by the narrowest of margins.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    geoffw said:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal."

    It's s simple sentence but it can be understood syntactically in two ways:

    1. A bad deal is worse than no deal.
    2. There is no deal better than a bad deal.

    It seems that, perversely, Mrs May understands it as (2).

    It's an interesting quirk of the language that "nothing is worse than X" and "X is better than nothing" have very different connotations despite being logically equivalent
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    kle4 said:

    does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning?

    I was brought up to understand that "good faith" means "to disclose all relevant information if asked" and "utmost good faith" means "to disclose all relevant information even if unasked" (I'm a statistician who works for an insurance company). However other posters on here use a different definition or simply as a vague insult.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Theo said:

    Mortimer said:

    Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.

    I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.

    It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.

    Brexit means can kicking.

    Yep.

    My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
    Finally people are actually focusing on the content of the deal. And it's a good one.
    If you are MrsMay..

    Nobody else.

    Certainly not tory MPs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    The safeguards bit of the NI protocol is a slightly more interesting read so far, on the basis the language itself seems more punchy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    currystar said:

    The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal

    Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?
    Radical idea I know...
    If I've been able to read it all the way through by now, it's a bit worrying if Starmer can't. No wonder the CPS was a shambles on his watch.
    I get you. It was a somewhat flippant response.
    Labour has a decision to make here. To criticise them for not having made it within 3 hours of the text being released seemed a little churlish.
    It took the Cabinet twice as long after all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044

    Jonathan said:

    glw said:

    Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.

    Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.

    I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.

    May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
    EU membership without the good bits.
    The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.
    As a socialist how can you support the single currency? The EU uses it as a form of economic colonialism. Do as we say or your banking system gets it.
    My support for the single currency comes more from my position as a tourist than as a Socialist!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.

    Opinium is busily polling on the issue, as I'm sure are others. As I said yesterday, I think May's best hope is to play it long and hope that "oh get it over with" polls sway her MPs.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    We should all go back and re-read these threads in 5 yrs time. So.much hype ...so much hysteria so much bullshit written..
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    Some Socialists are happy with EU membership.

    +ves workers rights

    -ves No state aid

    I want us to leave.

    I do not accept No Deal as an acceptable option
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    My main takeaway from this deal is that it leaves the door to rejoining wide open. It could be done very quickly.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291

    The Brexit withdrawal agreement states that the UK will have to reimburse the EU for vast amounts of equipment paid for by EU Euratom nuclear research and development funding.

    The EU supplied £65m every year to the UK under this scheme.

    Isn't that and similar all good? The more of this there is the more the £39bn is actually for something tangible.
This discussion has been closed.