I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
Exactly. 90% of the benefits of Leave with 70% of the benefits of Remain. This is a Brexit that 70% of the country can embrace.
But unfortunately the 30% of Brexit purists, Europhile loons, Celtic tribalists and partisan Labour hacks hold disproportionate power in parliament. If they force a Hard Left Cliff Edge Brexit the public will never forgive them.
Obviously it will become (a bit) easier to predict the closer we get to the vote but as of tonight I suspect it will scrape through by about 10 votes.
Ditto here. They got through cabinet fairly easily, presumably they knew how everyone important would react. I suspect they think they have the numbers in Parliament too, whether courtesy of Labour rebels or abstainers.
It's too early to have a clue. It's all going to depend on the political landscape at the time of the vote; whether Labour think they can force an early GE if they vote against; whether the ECJ will allow an A50 notification withdrawal; whether or not there is a leadership VONC against May.
And if the DUP announce they would vote for no confidence then a Parliamentary VONC and early GE would happen before the Commons even gets to vote on the deal.
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
Funny coincidence, as I expect it to reduce them by about the same amount!
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
Exactly. 90% of the benefits of Leave with 70% of the benefits of Remain. This is a Brexit that 70% of the country can embrace.
But unfortunately the 30% of Brexit purists, Europhile loons, Celtic tribalists and partisan Labour hacks hold disproportionate power in parliament. If they force a Hard Left Cliff Edge Brexit the public will never forgive them.
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
Funny coincidence, as I expect it to reduce them by about the same amount!
I expect TM will get a modest boost
I would wager ten british pounds - that's right, a whole ten - that she does not.
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
Exactly. 90% of the benefits of Leave with 70% of the benefits of Remain. This is a Brexit that 70% of the country can embrace.
But unfortunately the 30% of Brexit purists, Europhile loons, Celtic tribalists and partisan Labour hacks hold disproportionate power in parliament. If they force a Hard Left Cliff Edge Brexit the public will never forgive them.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
Funny coincidence, as I expect it to reduce them by about the same amount!
I expect TM will get a modest boost
I would wager ten british pounds - that's right, a whole ten - that she does not.
Well I do not bet so I never lose money that way!!!!!
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
That I agree with. As I forecast earlier this week, you disagreed then of course...
Ah yes, that ancient British tradition - moaning about the John Lewis ad. I also see that Wetherspoons are doing a Christmas pizza that has Brie and cranberry on it. How about that!
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
But not certainties. What if you, as a theoretical MP again, could not get those things? Labour are within their rights to press for other options, but are making it sound a lot easier than it would be when the risk to doing so are also very very high, and it would be at least to some extent their fault if we do then crash out because they prioritised other options (involving seeking to get into government) over a deal. All very leave campaignery in fact.
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
That I agree with. As I forecast earlier this week, you disagreed then of course...
IIRC you were talking about permanent customs union, then. This simply isn’t that...
Ah yes, that ancient British tradition - moaning about the John Lewis ad. I also see that Wetherspoons are doing a Christmas pizza that has Brie and cranberry on it. How about that!
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
I expect he is presuming an extension would be asked for and given.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
It isn’t.
Labour just sniff an opportunity for an election. Incidentally, I think they’d get hammered If they trigger it by voting against the deal.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
I think a second referendum would be even more divisive and horrible than the first, I hate referendums, we shouldn’t have them. An election would return a Tory majority with someone much less sensible than May in charge. A further negotiation will be worse for us, I guess.
The draft political statement - ie the supposed eventual arrangement - is pure Canada, no plus, and very short. I'm not sure whether it's expected to be taken seriously.
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
That I agree with. As I forecast earlier this week, you disagreed then of course...
IIRC you were talking about permanent customs union, then. This simply isn’t that...
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%
Funny coincidence, as I expect it to reduce them by about the same amount!
I expect TM will get a modest boost
I would wager ten british pounds - that's right, a whole ten - that she does not.
considering virtually nothing has budged the polls over the last year, I wouldnt expect this to do so either.
Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.
Iain Dale just gave a perfect example of what I am on about.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
I expect he is presuming an extension would be asked for and given.
Which is the problem. This entire bloody Brexit thing has been mutilated by the naive, the mendacious and the Mogg, presuming that some magical combination of things exist that would enable us to have cake, eat cake, not get fat, and never make a bloody decision. Well it's bollocks. The deal's good enough. Sign it and let's get on with our lives, I'm am sick unto death of people twisting on eighteen and looking surprised when it fucks up.
The draft political statement - ie the supposed eventual arrangement - is pure Canada, no plus, and very short. I'm not sure whether it's expected to be taken seriously.
Yes, this looks to be a Blind Brexit, with extended BINO Transition to an unknown destination.
Best option on the table, but only in the sense that dysentry is better than cholera.
Don't know if this was commented on but it did amuse me that on bbc news at ten, Larry the cat photo bombed Laura and huw throughout their piece to camera.. Plato would have approved I'm sure...
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
I expect he is presuming an extension would be asked for and given.
Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.
Iain Dale just gave a perfect example of what I am on about.
Iain Dale knows nowt about owt, nothing new. Most of the talking heads on Newsnight had only read Twitter, by the look of it.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
I expect he is presuming an extension would be asked for and given.
Which is probably - but not certainly - true.
Which is my problem with anti-dealers in this situation. It's not unreasonable to oppose it - many will for principled reasons- but it is unreasonable to make that opposition seem simple and without risk because of assumptions which may be correct, and may even been probably correct, but do contain elements of significant risk because they are far from certain.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
The insult was indeed unnecessary (Nick appears to be an instinctive party loyalist rather than being committed to any particular sliver of the left) - but he does seem to be peddling moonbeams in this case.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Frankly Mr Palmer has a point.
Other options are possible in the time.
What are you running? A "Pick the Lady" variant from a box in Oxford St?
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
The Lords vote has only symbolic effect. The rest - the EU Council, the EP, the Commons and (potentially) some other EU parliaments - could have veto powers.
That said, I don't think the primary problem of a second round of negotiations is the lack of time; the problem - as in the first round, just concluded - is the lack of political space in which a deal can be done.
Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.
Iain Dale just gave a perfect example of what I am on about.
Iain Dale know nowt about owt, nothing new. Most of the talking heads on Newsnight had only read Twitter, by the look of it.
By their own words: “well I suppose someone will have actually read the agreement...”, etc. How they can then pass such definitive judgment on it is a conundrum.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
I expect he is presuming an extension would be asked for and given.
Which is probably - but not certainly - true.
Even if it was true, it would just increase EU leverage, leading to a worse deal.
Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.
Iain Dale just gave a perfect example of what I am on about.
Iain Dale know nowt about owt, nothing new. Most of the talking heads on Newsnight had only read Twitter, by the look of it.
By their own words: “well I suppose someone will have actually read the agreement...”, etc. How they can then pass such definitive judgment on it is a conundrum.
That's the beauty of being an opinion haver for hire - quick hot take, no substance needed. What a job.
Don't know if this was commented on but it did amuse me that on bbc news at ten, Larry the cat photo bombed Laura and huw throughout their piece to camera.. Plato would have approved I'm sure...
Yes, I noticed that. Classic cat behaviour.
All day ITV have had a live stream of the Door, with no sign of him.
But as soon as there is a 500 page document to use as cat tray litter, he's on the spot.
Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.
Iain Dale just gave a perfect example of what I am on about.
Iain Dale know nowt about owt, nothing new. Most of the talking heads on Newsnight had only read Twitter, by the look of it.
By their own words: “well I suppose someone will have actually read the agreement...”, etc. How they can then pass such definitive judgment on it is a conundrum.
That's the beauty of being an opinion haver for hire - quick hot take, no substance needed. What a job.
It's frustrating because so many of us do it for free!
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
He is a die-hard Corbynite. How is it unreasonable to characterise that as "hard left"? And he IS selling snake oil. That isn't an insult. It's the reality.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
The insult was indeed unnecessary (Nick appears to be an instinctive party loyalist rather than being committed to any particular sliver of the left) - but he does seem to be peddling moonbeams in this case.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
It's not a question of giving up; it's a question of what else can be done.
A second referendum cannot deliver a different deal. It either ratifies this one, chucks us out with the hardest of Brexits, or (possibly, if it's legally possible), drops the UK back into the EU, and several million voters back into the lap of UKIP. What it doesn't do is produce a different deal.
Likewise, a general election might well (probably would) produce a different government and they might be able to negotiate a different deal but that only happens if the DUP withdraw C&S, which despite their anger today still seems unlikely given that they can block the deal and still keep the Tories in power in a hung parliament, which is an ideal situation for them.
As for further negotiations, yes, they could and would occur and perhaps the EU might give a little ground somewhere with 'clarifications' as to what the wording means, but nothing of substance is likely to change - certainly nothing sufficient to meet Labour's tests. And then what? It's one thing to vote it down in December but suppose Deal v1.0.1 comes back in February: do you vote it down again, which really would lead to No Deal, or do you accept it, in which case you might as well have done so at the first time of asking.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
It's not a question of giving up; it's a question of what else can be done.
A second referendum cannot deliver a different deal. It either ratifies this one, chucks us out with the hardest of Brexits, or (possibly, if it's legally possible), drops the UK back into the EU, and several million voters back into the lap of UKIP. What it doesn't do is produce a different deal.
Likewise, a general election might well (probably would) produce a different government and they might be able to negotiate a different deal but that only happens if the DUP withdraw C&S, which despite their anger today still seems unlikely given that they can block the deal and still keep the Tories in power in a hung parliament, which is an ideal situation for them.
As for further negotiations, yes, they could and would occur and perhaps the EU might give a little ground somewhere with 'clarifications' as to what the wording means, but nothing of substance is likely to change - certainly nothing sufficient to meet Labour's tests. And then what? It's one thing to vote it down in December but suppose Deal v1.0.1 comes back in February: do you vote it down again, which really would lead to No Deal, or do you accept it, in which case you might as well have done so at the first time of asking.
I think you forget that Nick has often emphasised that Jeremy does not particularly care about Brexit, one way or the other. A general election is another matter.
Mogg on Peston says it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the PM from her policy but he has not submitted a letter asking for a no confidence vote yet
I really think Chris Grayling should resign. Nothing to do with his views on the agreement. He just should.
Indeed. If one good thing were to come out of Brexit, a long, hard root and branch look at how our system works would be one. In particular how the likes of Grayling manage to ascend to Cabinet level. Other examples in other Parties are available, and, sadly, all too obvious.
Mogg on Peston says it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the PM from her policy but he has not submitted a letter asking for a no confidence vote yet
What a f***ing surprise.
He can never quite find the quill and ink when he thinks he might need it.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
It's not a question of giving up; it's a question of what else can be done.
A second referendum cannot deliver a different deal. It either ratifies this one, chucks us out with the hardest of Brexits, or (possibly, if it's legally possible), drops the UK back into the EU, and several million voters back into the lap of UKIP. What it doesn't do is produce a different deal.
Likewise, a general election might well (probably would) produce a different government and they might be able to negotiate a different deal but that only happens if the DUP withdraw C&S, which despite their anger today still seems unlikely given that they can block the deal and still keep the Tories in power in a hung parliament, which is an ideal situation for them.
As for further negotiations, yes, they could and would occur and perhaps the EU might give a little ground somewhere with 'clarifications' as to what the wording means, but nothing of substance is likely to change - certainly nothing sufficient to meet Labour's tests. And then what? It's one thing to vote it down in December but suppose Deal v1.0.1 comes back in February: do you vote it down again, which really would lead to No Deal, or do you accept it, in which case you might as well have done so at the first time of asking.
May has to make it clear there will be one vote on this deal. If it doesn't pass then it's catastrophe or remain, and if Parliament won't make that choice, it has to go to the people.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
It's not a question of giving up; it's a question of what else can be done.
A second referendum cannot deliver a different deal. It either ratifies this one, chucks us out with the hardest of Brexits, or (possibly, if it's legally possible), drops the UK back into the EU, and several million voters back into the lap of UKIP. What it doesn't do is produce a different deal.
Likewise, a general election might well (probably would) produce a different government and they might be able to negotiate a different deal but that only happens if the DUP withdraw C&S, which despite their anger today still seems unlikely given that they can block the deal and still keep the Tories in power in a hung parliament, which is an ideal situation for them.
As for further negotiations, yes, they could and would occur and perhaps the EU might give a little ground somewhere with 'clarifications' as to what the wording means, but nothing of substance is likely to change - certainly nothing sufficient to meet Labour's tests. And then what? It's one thing to vote it down in December but suppose Deal v1.0.1 comes back in February: do you vote it down again, which really would lead to No Deal, or do you accept it, in which case you might as well have done so at the first time of asking.
I think you forget that Nick has often emphasised that Jeremy does not particularly care about Brexit, one way or the other. A general election is another matter.
True, but that wasn't Nick's point. He said
"I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc"
In truth, it *is* This Deal / No Deal / Remain, as the only options (and Remain is an extreme edge case).
I do see how you get a general election before 29 March but it still seems pretty damn unlikely to me.
Mogg on Peston says it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the PM from her policy but he has not submitted a letter asking for a no confidence vote yet
What a f***ing surprise.
He can never quite find the quill and ink when he thinks he might need it.
Comments
But unfortunately the 30% of Brexit purists, Europhile loons, Celtic tribalists and partisan Labour hacks hold disproportionate power in parliament. If they force a Hard Left Cliff Edge Brexit the public will never forgive them.
And if the DUP announce they would vote for no confidence then a Parliamentary VONC and early GE would happen before the Commons even gets to vote on the deal.
Indeed, I was looking forward to a delicious Sunday roast of chlorinated chicken accompanied by a nice Texan Chianti.
it is actually the set of all numbers whose sum is less than 48.
Tomorrow may see 48 letters and resignations but TM still standing, who knows
Time to wish everyone a good nights rest
Good night folks
Using Osborne & Little?
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
Labour just sniff an opportunity for an election. Incidentally, I think they’d get hammered
If they trigger it by voting against the deal.
I think a second referendum would be even more divisive and horrible than the first, I hate referendums, we shouldn’t have them. An election would return a Tory majority with someone much less sensible than May in charge. A further negotiation will be worse for us, I guess.
Take the deal.
Except for abortion. Where suddenly it's OK for Northern Ireland to have different rules.
Best option on the table, but only in the sense that dysentry is better than cholera.
Complete coincidence that this story appears just as we are all reading 500 pages of EU WA stuff.
Other options are possible in the time.
What are you running? A "Pick the Lady" variant from a box in Oxford St?
That said, I don't think the primary problem of a second round of negotiations is the lack of time; the problem - as in the first round, just concluded - is the lack of political space in which a deal can be done.
How they can then pass such definitive judgment on it is a conundrum.
All day ITV have had a live stream of the Door, with no sign of him.
But as soon as there is a 500 page document to use as cat tray litter, he's on the spot.
A second referendum cannot deliver a different deal. It either ratifies this one, chucks us out with the hardest of Brexits, or (possibly, if it's legally possible), drops the UK back into the EU, and several million voters back into the lap of UKIP. What it doesn't do is produce a different deal.
Likewise, a general election might well (probably would) produce a different government and they might be able to negotiate a different deal but that only happens if the DUP withdraw C&S, which despite their anger today still seems unlikely given that they can block the deal and still keep the Tories in power in a hung parliament, which is an ideal situation for them.
As for further negotiations, yes, they could and would occur and perhaps the EU might give a little ground somewhere with 'clarifications' as to what the wording means, but nothing of substance is likely to change - certainly nothing sufficient to meet Labour's tests. And then what? It's one thing to vote it down in December but suppose Deal v1.0.1 comes back in February: do you vote it down again, which really would lead to No Deal, or do you accept it, in which case you might as well have done so at the first time of asking.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/14/poll-trump-2020-reelection-support-990015
Hey ho.
These idiots started all this.
Ian's not happy at being sold down the river by Theresa May?
In particular how the likes of Grayling manage to ascend to Cabinet level.
Other examples in other Parties are available, and, sadly, all too obvious.
He can never quite find the quill and ink when he thinks he might need it.
"I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc"
In truth, it *is* This Deal / No Deal / Remain, as the only options (and Remain is an extreme edge case).
I do see how you get a general election before 29 March but it still seems pretty damn unlikely to me.
https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/1062846271021633537