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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Electoral Commission decision on Vote Leave should make TMay’s task on Friday a bit easier
Vote Leave broke electoral law, Electoral Commission expected to say – BBC News https://t.co/OLgnv1GxCb
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The question is whether any of them are prepared to resign and seek to overturn the applecart. My take is that they are not. They might if they had a constructive alternative that they thought would be workable. But they don't.
Lock 'em up!
Re-run the Referendum!
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1014401814073171968
Fines seem an utterly insufficient penalty for wrongdoing though when the stakes are so high.
It would be better for remainers if they actually sat down and worked out why they lost
start with yourselves
As bad/useful as blaming a (Russian) boogeyman for the country voting the way it did.
* this is taking the VL complaint at face value: I have no idea whether there is more to the story than has been reported
Even if they did, it is hard to see how it makes Theresa May's task any easier but then again I'm still in the dark as to what exactly she is trying to do.
Though of course anyone who doesn't think that leaflet riled people up and brought them out for leave is forgetting the impact it had on the campaign at the time.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-leaflet-row-petition-passes-100k-signatures-amid-tory-in-fighting-over-9m-leaflet-a6974121.html
My frustration with all sides is that nobody seems able to move beyond endlessly debating the referendum - should we leave? For remainers they feel cheated by stupid people. For leavers they can't agree what leave actually means and feel cheated by stupid people of the result that everyone voting leave obviously supported (ie their personal interpretation)
Politically we either need to go through with leaving the EU or present a significant new development that prevents it as a reason not to. Whining on about foreign influence and overspend is pointless and pathetic.
The Electoral Commission is preparing to find Vote Leave guilty of breaking election law after getting hold of an email exchange between the main Brexit campaign and a leading donor that it says is proof of wrongdoing.
The watchdog is set to make two allegations, which are rejected by those involved, and could end up in court.
....Second, it will claim that Vote Leave had a “common plan” with other campaign groups to get around the £7 million spending cap set by electoral law. Vote Leave says that there was no co-ordination and it is not illegal to tell donors where else they can give money. The commission cites correspondence between Anthony Clake, a donor, and Dominic Cummings, head of campaigns, which has not been released.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/vote-leave-in-trouble-with-electoral-commission-over-brexit-vote-l0jqfhh7g
no Roger you were just crap, I mean you were outwitted by Farage FFS that's how bad you were
in marketing terms you ran a shit campaign selling a shoddy product to an audience you didn't understand
Second arguably the better England do at the World Cup the better for hard Brexiteers, after all if Leave voting England can beat the rest of the world on the football pitch then it can also say 'sod you' to being dictated to by Brussels or Remain voting parts of the UK like Scotland and Northern Ireland
Start with yourselves.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
either needs prosecuting or sacking for incompetence.
a campaign takes on the accumulated impact of previous advertising and nobody wanted to sell the EU for the last 40 years
If we look at the economy things are going much better than predicted.
The bottom line, this moment is between principle and pragmatism. For every brexiteer there is principle at stake here. Football matches, state visits, other froth and nonsense going on in the media coming weeks matter not a jot. If they need to rip a document up and not lend it their support, they have to do that, if they have to resign, they resign, if they have to create the leadership election in order to take control of brexit themselves, they simply get on with it regardless what else is in the news.
This is the moment principle meets pragmatism. And a key part of that principle is May leading everyone on with her own red lines, which she can’t now junk for a soft Brexit.
“So Prime Minister, at what point did you realise your own red lines weren’t worth the crib sheet they were written on?”
If May outs herself as a soft brexiteer it’s actually the perfect moment for those who believe in brexit to take control of brexit, the very moment they have organised and patiently waited for, regardless of the time and terrain May chose the battle.
1966 and all that? Just like what Harold got, for tired and spent May God’s verdict is coming.
The Brexiteers remind me of Wiley E Coyote in the one cartoon where he catches Roadrunner. He looks to the camera and holds up a sign asking, "What now?"
Nearly two years on, and they're still asking that question.
personally I suspect the reality is much different than the headlines, the knee jerk reaction to every announcement shows a lack of maturity across the political spectrum.
I wanted a trading relationship which stopped further political integration and I'm getting more confident I'll end up with what I voted for.
If you are those involved have done a very good job at reducing expectations.
I want Brexit to be a success; saying otherwise would mean I want the country not to prosper. But if it's a success it won't be down to the hardcore Brexiteers, but the pragmatists on *both* sides.
If they were seven-year-olds, you would send them to bed early and assume a good sleep would sort them out. But often, being media people with an exaggerated sense of their own importance, they don't even understand how silly they look. For once, they lost. Get over it and move on.
That was convenient.
But if it does succeed, then it won't be down to the hardcore Brexiteers who just continually sh*t over everything in their wish for a 'pure' Brexit.
Plus the point of the referendum was to find out what the country wants. The question is whether or not it did that successfully. It's not a competition. I agree that anomolies on the Remain side don't add to the case for a rerun, but they'd don't detract from it either,
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1014411045371371521
And which government ministers have shown their skills and competence in anything ?
As to your 'pragmatists' it was their lack of skills and competence which led to Brexit.
QTWTAIN. Next thread.
A "soft Brexiteer" is a Brexiteer.
Any thoughts on Raheem Sterling being the lowest ranked England player for the third game in a row:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44704273
while PBers pick open the scabs of a 2 year old campaign the EU edifice is starting to show signs of stress. Merkel is a wounded chancellor, the EU is heading for a trade war with Trump, Putin is arming up and the EU is showing splits on immigration.
whether this is good or bad for us I have no idea, but the one thing that is constant is events are out there and things change. It would be better if UK politicians could get their heads out of a 2 year old feud and look around and see whats actually happening outside their bubble.
There’s no case for a rerun
The problem, of course, is that if you make your slogan "a leap in the dark", you wouldn't be able to make these sorts of predictions.
I know you're stirring (as am I), but you must also realise that HM Government own Brexit. The incompetence came primarily for Cameron D, who must have prevented the civil service from making plans and presenting options to HMG, whatever the referendum result.
I suspect he feared leaks from the CS which might have added credibility to the Brexit options. So he thought … "I want what I want. If the country don't back me, I'll f*ck off anyway. And I'll spend 9 million quid on a propaganda leaflet if I want to, so there."
So what was Farage's plan for Brexit if the country voted No, some loons ask. In their addled minds, they imagined that as a result of the referendum result, Nigel could order the civil service to obey him and they would do. I fear these people are still out there without their strait-jackets, and still cheer-leading for Remain.
Did Remain declare the value of asking POTUS to say we would be at the 'back of the queue' if we left?
Even you know this at heart.
Have you looked at the spending on each side?
So far, I’d say our agricultural and fisheries policies will definitely be better outside the EU.
Small wins to some, perhaps, but meaningful and important ones nonetheless.
skysports.com/football/news/12016/11425333/england-player-ratings-sue-smith-rates-players-after-world-cup-win-over-colombia?utm_source=Direct
Edit:
"Marcus Rashford - N/A
I don't remember him having a touch during the game! He came on and showed the same bravery as the other four to take a penalty, and he took it well."
But, for what it’s worth, I agree: it probably helps Theresa May just a little bit because it does snitch away a bit of the moral high ground.
You can't have your cake, and eat it
Phased implementation over 7-12 years is a typical timescale for successful change programmes of that sort.
The problem comes from the fact that 'leave' means different things to different leavers; as we see all too often on here. If Cameron had made plans for Brexit winning, then Leavers would have demanded to see it. One side would have cried betrayal, and the other would have grumped and moaned. either way, it would have provided them with fuel for their fire.
What you're saying is that Cameron should have done exactly what leavers wanted him to do to help them win.
Odd, that.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1014418529100189696
IDS's UC being the current primary example. Rather ironic.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/05/02/fishing-quotas-in-europe-who-gets-the-right-to-fish/
GMiller, the Leavers' heroine.
Yes. They saw the result of the vote and are trying to deliver it. They are pragmatists. Their job is being made harder by the likes of JRM and the apparent incompetence of Davis, Fox et al, many of whom have an ideological sickness.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article178713714/Fluechtlingspolitik-CSU-sieht-Transitzentren-nicht-als-Gefaengnisse.html
Sorry, not buying it (unlike the Russians
(regardless of whether you'd like the sort of deal you may get from that.)
The consultation period will be interesting, as will the eventual Bill that emerges.
Will it negate the result? No.
Will it boost Chuka's anti-Brexit credentials in the inevitable autopsy of failure that Brexit will deliver? Maybe
Think of it as a DFS sale over an Easter bank holiday but where truth and honesty isn't a requirement and you can throw as much money at it as you like. "Free Sofas! Nothing to pay till 2035!! AND ......£1000 back on your old one in any condition!!! Offer end 24th JUNE!!!!!!
Though I doubt May and her team know what they want to deliver let alone how to deliver it.