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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Electoral Commission decision on Vote Leave should make TM

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1014481208351383554

    This is the kind of crap I really don't care about.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    tlg86 said:

    Using the best odds, you can get a 60% return if you are sure that the winner of the World Cup comes from Brazil/Belgium/France/Uruguay.

    Only problem is: no one can be sure of that.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I guess the question is what is PMQs for. If it's to win debating points in the House of Commons, going on buses is daft. If it's to signal to people in the wider country that you're interested in things that really hack you off, it's potentially a good idea.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    I think it's obvious that the current timetable in which to complete a free trade deal is unrealistic, a 7-10 year transition from full member to third country with a FTA (I think "a" is right) is the only way to get Brexit right and one which suits the UK and EU over the longer term without disrupting cross border trade and solving the Ireland issue in the near term as well as having a longer term solution.
    It's all such a bloody waste of money, time and intellectual capacity with huge opportunity costs, and it would mean there would be no UK left in the long term, but apart from that it's a credible plan.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    My dad watched through the garden door. I don't think that's uncommon, in fact many people will sympathise.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    Yorkcity said:

    Grauniad calls it for Corbyn: (EDIT - its not (the normally reliable) Andrew Sparrow......

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1014477442621194241

    That is laughable
    What that they disagree with your assesment on PMqs ?
    In fairness Corbyn had a huge choice of subjects to put TM on the spot and he chose buses. That was why it was laughable. He let TM off
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited July 2018

    I guess the question is what is PMQs for. If it's to win debating points in the House of Commons, going on buses is daft. If it's to signal to people in the wider country that you're interested in things that really hack you off, it's potentially a good idea.

    Jezza's PMQ strategy has nothing to do with winning in the chamber and all about the video for FaceAche / Tw@tter. Hague used to give Blair a good intellectual duffing up on a fairly regular basis and it did him no good at all.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Fare play for Corbyn standing up for bus users. The #FBPE lot on twitter seem apocolyptic about him going on it mind. I didn't realise the volume of bus journeys a year was so substantially higher than train use either - it certainly isn't an impression you'd get from twitter !!
    I suspect the group most put out by him leading on bus use are train users, who are desperately over-represented amongst journalists in particular.

    It's a big issue on the doorsteps in my parts, but not the commuter side of it. Ageing folk, living in edge-of-town estates with little/no commerce, no longer able to drive. The economics of running buses often don't add up but that's the point where you start needing to work out the externalities.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Price, but a little on Mbappe[sp] after Mr. JohnL's earlier post on that.

    Happily, I've also backed Uruguay at 29, so that works either way.

    If England ended up playing Russia that could be a little bit spicy. Hope Croatia win.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I guess the question is what is PMQs for. If it's to win debating points in the House of Commons, going on buses is daft. If it's to signal to people in the wider country that you're interested in things that really hack you off, it's potentially a good idea.

    It also marks [another] contrast with the New Labour years. For all of John Prescott's talk about an "integrated transport system", buses were entirely neglected during the Blair/Brown governments, with the sole exception of the introduction of the national bus pass - which Corbyn mentioned today in not entirely positive terms: "A bus pass isn’t much use if there isn’t a bus."

    It could be easy to imagine that Corbyn still saw himself as railing against a New Labour government from the backbenches. Maybe in a political sense he is.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44694122
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Croatia play Russia, yes? With the winner playing England or Sweden?

    Yes. On the one hand I do not want Russia to win. On the other hand, a semi-final victory for England over Russia would be delicious.
    IMO Croatia are the only team from England's side of the draw that have any hope of beating Brazil or France.
    I agree that Croatia are the strongest team in England's side of the draw. I do fancy Belgium's chances against Brazil, though.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Fare play for Corbyn standing up for bus users. The #FBPE lot on twitter seem apocolyptic about him going on it mind. I didn't realise the volume of bus journeys a year was so substantially higher than train use either - it certainly isn't an impression you'd get from twitter !!
    I suspect the group most put out by him leading on bus use are train users, who are desperately over-represented amongst journalists in particular.

    They are bloody expensive in York, it is run by first York .First group are putting prices up again this month.

    I live just 2 miles out of the city centre.

    £ 2:50p single £5 return .
    I walk if going for a drink.
    Or take the car if not.As you can park in Sainsbury's for £4 for 4 hours and you get your money back if you spend over a tenner at Sainsbury's .You always need something.

    Anyways £15 for a family of 2 Adults and 2 children , for two miles of travel is a lot for families struggling.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Pulpstar said:

    Fare play for Corbyn standing up for bus users. The #FBPE lot on twitter seem apocolyptic about him going on it mind. I didn't realise the volume of bus journeys a year was so substantially higher than train use either - it certainly isn't an impression you'd get from twitter !!
    I suspect the group most put out by him leading on bus use are train users, who are desperately over-represented amongst journalists in particular.

    It's a big issue on the doorsteps in my parts, but not the commuter side of it. Ageing folk, living in edge-of-town estates with little/no commerce, no longer able to drive. The economics of running buses often don't add up but that's the point where you start needing to work out the externalities.
    Providing free buses so the elderly can get out and about every day and remain physically active and mentally alert is a hell of a lot Cheaper than providing social care and healthcare because they deteriorate sooner due to social isolation.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44694122

    Really suffers badly from asthma doesn't he, the poor lad.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    US Ambassador 'Independence was not easy but nor is Brexit but with courage, confidence and conviction Britain you can make it a success'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/1014433179996913665
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited July 2018

    Croatia play Russia, yes? With the winner playing England or Sweden?

    Yes. On the one hand I do not want Russia to win. On the other hand, a semi-final victory for England over Russia would be delicious.
    IMO Croatia are the only team from England's side of the draw that have any hope of beating Brazil or France.
    I agree that Croatia are the strongest team in England's side of the draw. I do fancy Belgium's chances against Brazil, though.
    They are only to have to play like they did in the last 20 minutes against Japan for the whole game....and defend even better.

    My concern in regards to Beligum is their defence is led by Kompany who is nowhere near the player he was of 4 years ago.

    If fancy dan ball hogger plays as part of the team (which apparently he has been told in uncertain terms he has to), Brazil have shown going forward they are far ahead of everybody else.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44694122

    Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Back to the reliable, old pints and gurning act for Nige.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1014429755779833856

    What was he doing during Euro 96?
    I don't know, but I would guess something other than posting bogus man of the people photo opps.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Oh dear Theresa. Oh dear.

    What on earth has she done?
    Misspoke but it was funny and she took it well
    Misspoke how?
    Said when we leave the UK instead of EU
    Though of course a lot of things will be leaving the UK. The EMA, skilled workers, industrial investment and our reputation of down to earth common sense.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited July 2018

    Yorkcity said:

    Grauniad calls it for Corbyn: (EDIT - its not (the normally reliable) Andrew Sparrow......

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1014477442621194241

    That is laughable
    What that they disagree with your assesment on PMqs ?
    In fairness Corbyn had a huge choice of subjects to put TM on the spot and he chose buses. That was why it was laughable. He let TM off
    To be honest big g , if he had gone on Brexit again , she would not answer , just saying to wait until after Friday.

    However Universal Credit will not go away.Especially when millions on legacy benefits are migrated to UC.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    MaxPB said:

    Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44694122

    Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?
    Salbutamol plus extreme nutrition management.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited July 2018
    Days since Labour have had an anti-Jew issue...0....

    A key ally of Len McCluskey was pictured in a t-shirt bearing the slogan ‘Victory to the Intifada,’ it has emerged. Asquith also writes a column for Labourlist and previously worked on Jeremy Corbyn’s first leadership campaign.

    https://www.theredroar.com/2018/07/top-unite-aide-in-intifada-row/
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    Oh dear Theresa. Oh dear.

    What on earth has she done?
    Misspoke but it was funny and she took it well
    Misspoke how?
    Said when we leave the UK instead of EU
    Though of course a lot of things will be leaving the UK. The EMA, skilled workers, industrial investment and our reputation of down to earth common sense.
    Perhaps Theresa and Philip are planning to move to the Dordogne or Tuscany while they can? :lol:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.

    Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.

    The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    US Ambassador 'Independence was not easy but nor is Brexit but with courage, confidence and conviction Britain you can make it a success'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/1014433179996913665

    The difference is that the French were on the secessionists’ side back then.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44694122

    Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?
    Salbutamol plus extreme nutrition management.
    And a team that costs 30m/year in salaries. Froomestrong has a world champion and monument winner (Kwiaktowski) just to bring him his bidons.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The ERG are paper tigers with gammon faces and M&S suits. They will do fuck all.
    Surely suits from Jermyn Street, I doubt JRM even realises that M&S sell clothes.
    I hope they don't get their suits from Jermyn Street.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    Here's the DfT's stats release on buses:

    https://tinyurl.com/y94hx6rk

    The 1.24bn vehicle miles compares with 0.32bn train km. Trains, of course, tend to be longer than buses and I suspect rail passenger km (65.8 billion in 2017-18) would drawf bus passenger km for which the DfT do not provide an estimate.

    On journeys, the chart on page 7 shows that the gap between bus and train journeys is narrowing.

    Interestingly, Rutland aside, the local authority with the lowest rate of bus journeys per head of population is Windsor and Maidenhead (11 journeys per person in 2016-17).
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    MaxPB said:

    My dad watched through the garden door. I don't think that's uncommon, in fact many people will sympathise.
    Had to do the same. Nerves too shredded. Watched it all on catch-up three times, mind :)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    US Ambassador 'Independence was not easy but nor is Brexit but with courage, confidence and conviction Britain you can make it a success'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/1014433179996913665

    The difference is that the French were on the secessionists’ side back then.
    Lost their heads over it though.....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.

    Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.

    The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
    And how does he become PM by splitting the left? Insurgent parties don't work within the bounds of FPTP and neither Theresa nor Jez are going to change that and threaten their own duopoly.

    It's a completely unrealistic scenario. If Corbyn loses in 2022 then one of his acolytes takes over, if they then lose in 2027, then the centrists get their chance, by then we'll be getting up to 2032.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    Javid is a leaver.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    Javid is a leaver.
    He voted remain and came out for remain during the referendum. He's a remainer.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Oh I forgot today is the 242nd anniversary of the day the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland decided we'd much rather have India than America.

    It's not.

    Nor is it the anniversary of the US deciding to commit to independence either.
    It is the 192nd anniversary of two of the signatories' (Jefferson & Adams) deaths
    And there was no such entity as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland until the first day of the 19th century.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602

    NEW THREAD

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The ERG are paper tigers with gammon faces and M&S suits. They will do fuck all.
    Surely suits from Jermyn Street, I doubt JRM even realises that M&S sell clothes.
    I hope they don't get their suits from Jermyn Street.
    Random, but why not?!
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    Oh I forgot today is the 242nd anniversary of the day the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland decided we'd much rather have India than America.

    It's not.

    Nor is it the anniversary of the US deciding to commit to independence either.
    It is the 192nd anniversary of two of the signatories' (Jefferson & Adams) deaths
    That it is (rather more than just signatories as well).
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44694122

    Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?
    Salbutamol plus extreme nutrition management.
    And a team that costs 30m/year in salaries. Froomestrong has a world champion and monument winner (Kwiaktowski) just to bring him his bidons.
    Be interesting to see how Sky get on without Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa driving up the hills.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tlg86 said:

    Here's the DfT's stats release on buses:

    https://tinyurl.com/y94hx6rk

    The 1.24bn vehicle miles compares with 0.32bn train km. Trains, of course, tend to be longer than buses and I suspect rail passenger km (65.8 billion in 2017-18) would drawf bus passenger km for which the DfT do not provide an estimate.

    On journeys, the chart on page 7 shows that the gap between bus and train journeys is narrowing.

    Interestingly, Rutland aside, the local authority with the lowest rate of bus journeys per head of population is Windsor and Maidenhead (11 journeys per person in 2016-17).

    I live in a large city with a good bus network (Edinburgh) so I use the bus a lot. However, one return journey to London will equate to at least 100 return bus journeys in the city. So, trivially, passenger-distance travelled by train will easily exceed that by bus, even if usage of the bus has much more impact on quality of life.

    Even when I commute to work by train I will normally catch a bus first.

    Passenger-distance is not a good metric to use to compare the relative importance of bus and train travel.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the trUnion anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of andidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.

    Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.

    The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
    And how does he become PM by splitting the left? Insurgent parties don't work within the bounds of FPTP and neither Theresa nor Jez are going to change that and threaten their own duopoly.

    It's a completely unrealistic scenario. If Corbyn loses in 2022 then one of his acolytes takes over, if they then lose in 2027, then the centrists get their chance, by then we'll be getting up to 2032.
    By taking enough moderate Labour supporters and pro EEA Tories and LDs.

    Remember Macron won the first round of the presidential election in France as well as the second as did En Marche in the legislative elections, leaving the conservative Les Republicains and the left-wing Socialist Party trailing in its wake
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway

    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.

    Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.

    The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
    And how does he become PM by splitting the left? Insurgent parties don't work within the bounds of FPTP and neither Theresa nor Jez are going to change that and threaten their own duopoly.

    It's a completely unrealistic scenario. If Corbyn loses in 2022 then one of his acolytes takes over, if they then lose in 2027, then the centrists get their chance, by then we'll be getting up to 2032.
    Insurgent parties can succeed within FPTP, but:

    1. It's very hard and very rare;
    2. It requires replacing one or other of the two established governing parties in the top tier - in this case, presumably Labour;
    3. Even if successful in the medium term, the likely short-term effect will be to give the other side - i.e. the Tories here - a huge advantage.

    That said, we should remember than the SDP-Liberal alliance polled well into the 40s in late 1981 / early 1982. Although that edge had already come off before the Falklands, it's far from inconceivable to think that had things panned out differently, Roy Jenkins could have become PM in 1984.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679


    Did Remain declare the value of asking POTUS to say we would be at the 'back of the queue' if we left?

    That was to be paid by British money and lives in some future US military intervention.
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    I’m not a Labour Party member and I’m sure somebody on here will be will put it all straight. But I’m not sure they are less interested in winning than their Conservative Counterparts. Corbyn only got in after the existing leadership lost after all. I don’t think they were given the choice of a winner versus an ideologue. It was between someone who would probably lose and a continuation of what had just lost. It seemed quite logical to me. If they had thrown out a likely winner in favour of a purist your point would be made. But there was no winner available.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422



    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?

    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    I’m not a Labour Party member and I’m sure somebody on here will be will put it all straight. But I’m not sure they are less interested in winning than their Conservative Counterparts. Corbyn only got in after the existing leadership lost after all. I don’t think they were given the choice of a winner versus an ideologue. It was between someone who would probably lose and a continuation of what had just lost. It seemed quite logical to me. If they had thrown out a likely winner in favour of a purist your point would be made. But there was no winner available.
    They may or they may not be more interested in winning but after 2017, the large number of Corbyn-inspired Labour members believe that winning *on his platform* is entirely possible and that there's no great need to elect a triangulating centrist in order to win (the fact that Corbyn himself has triangulated at times is beside the point).

    But with the NEC and Labour professional staff now also tilted to the left, the proposed leadership rule changes going to ensure that all candidates are likely to need to dress to the left, and the Shadow Cabinet now dominated by the left (not least by the self-imposed exile of those who resigned), Corbyn's successor is almost certain to come from his wing of the Party.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    AndyJS said:
    There's an unknown number of unknowns.

    But unlikely to be the same as the previous unknown.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833

    Croatia play Russia, yes? With the winner playing England or Sweden?

    Yes. On the one hand I do not want Russia to win. On the other hand, a semi-final victory for England over Russia would be delicious.
    IMO Croatia are the only team from England's side of the draw that have any hope of beating Brazil or France.
    I agree that Croatia are the strongest team in England's side of the draw. I do fancy Belgium's chances against Brazil, though.
    Croatia had a purple patch when they thrashed the Argies, but nothing special in their other matches.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833


    Did Remain declare the value of asking POTUS to say we would be at the 'back of the queue' if we left?

    That was to be paid by British money and lives in some future US military intervention.
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    *snipped max's email*

    HYUFD said:

    Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries

    Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?

    EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
    Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
    All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.
    Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the same
    I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?

    It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
    I’m not a Labour Party member and I’m sure somebody on here will be will put it all straight. But I’m not sure they are less interested in winning than their Conservative Counterparts. Corbyn only got in after the existing leadership lost after all. I don’t think they were given the choice of a winner versus an ideologue. It was between someone who would probably lose and a continuation of what had just lost. It seemed quite logical to me. If they had thrown out a likely winner in favour of a purist your point would be made. But there was no winner available.
    I agree, Leader replacements are rarely like for like. That worked in favour of Jezza, but will work against him next time.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited July 2018

    Back to the reliable, old pints and gurning act for Nige.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1014429755779833856

    What was he doing during Euro 96?
    He probably has a Cameronesque level of football knowledge tbf.
    Politicians should stay well clear of pretending to have fantastic knowledge of football. From Cameron and his West Ham Villa to Corbyn quoting a Scotman's as one of the greatest English managers.

    Actually, politicians and sport, music, popular tv...just be honest and say I don't watch Love Island, I prefer cricket to football and who the hell are the Arctic Monkeys.
    I realise a lot of people on this forum live in England and some might even think the country we live in is England...

    It isn't, Shankly is one of this country's greatest managers, he isn't England's greatest manager (greatest in England possibly) but that was never actually claimed by anyone, well actually it probably was but not by Corbyn.

    As a Labour leader it probably isn't sensible to ignore the other parts of the union, Wales and Scotland (N. Ireland shouldn't be ignored either but from an electoral point of view you can) the Tories can afford to get away with a more English-centric attitude.

    Edit Not Ferguson but Shankly...


    Ferguson would have been a good choice IMO!
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited July 2018
    Foxy said:



    I agree, Leader replacements are rarely like for like. That worked in favour of Jezza, but will work against him next time.

    It's worth noting that changes in Labour's constitution designed to entrench one faction have never worked in the way in which those who promoted them intended.

    In the early 1980s, under Michael Foot, the electoral college was promoted to ensure that future leaders would be drawn from the left of the party. But it actually produced a marked shift to the right, successively electing Neil Kinnock, John Smith and finally Tony Blair.

    The new all-member-plus-supporter system introduced by Ed Miliband was supposed to ensure that the leadership remained in moderate hands. But it actually produced Jeremy Corbyn.

    It's not really possible to entrench an electorally unsuccessful faction in a democratic system - failure at the ballot box will always lead to pressure for a change in policy.

This discussion has been closed.