It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
Well there is the Lewisham East by election next Thursday in which the Tories will want to keep second.
However May leads most current polls unlike IDS and of course Michael Howard ended up with 33% in 2005, 1% less than the 34% the Tories were on in the final yougov with him as leader so replacing him.made zero difference.
The only time ousting a Tory leader midterm made a real difference was when Major replaced Thatcher and dumped the poll tax but it set the stage for over a decade out of power after the 1992 win and deep party splits
Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.
That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
He has to get to the last two put to members. Could be beyond him.
It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
He has to get to the last two put to members. Could be beyond him.
If Leadsom and IDS managed it Mogg can and he will have the arch Brexiteer ERG block behind him.as it's chairman if he runs
4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.
This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
On Heathrow - surely a sensible step would be to ban Cargo flights from the airport and shift that demand to other Airports? East Midlands would seem ideal given its location in relation to the logistics and distribution sector.
How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?
4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.
This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
That still leaves about 30 years before devolution.
It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
2030?
It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.
I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
There used to be a third runway at Heathrow - a short crosswind one which was used rarely - landed on it once - but as it bisected the other two runways did nowt for capacity...
Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
2030?
It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.
I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up. Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally. LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.
This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
That still leaves about 30 years before devolution.
Agreed. I have no idea why N.Ireland wasn't included in the original legalisation back in the 60s.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
The by-election wasn't even that big a loss. In the post-Iraq circumstances, the LDs were always going to stand a chance. Given that it was over three months from then until the VoNC, did it really play that big a role? The plotting would have happened over the summer either way, though no doubt it helped sharpen minds (and knives).
Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
2030?
It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.
I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up. Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally. LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
The new capacity that would cost about £8bn to provide at Gatwick will cost £18bn at Heathrow, making Heathrow by far the most expensive airport in the world — which is why BA, its main user, opposes its expansion. The new transport links to service a new Heathrow terminal are also much more costly than those that would be needed for an expanded Gatwick. Gatwick’s principal disadvantage — its less central location, about 30 miles south of London — means that fewer people suffer disturbance from airport expansion.
The business case, if you examine it, is very marginal and depends on dodgy assumptions that are already out of date. Zac has pointed out the very unhealthy relationship between the Dept of Transport and Heathrow top management with jobs swaps etc.
The quality of the debate on this has been worse than on Brexit and the decision today is driven by short term politics and has nothing to do with the national interest. It will be a long, very expensive time wasting exercise that delays doing the right thing for airport expansion,.
4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.
This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
That still leaves about 30 years before devolution.
Agreed. I have no idea why N.Ireland wasn't included in the original legalisation back in the 60s.
Presumably because Northern Ireland had home rule at the time.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
Well being a backbench irritant then being leader did not do Corbyn too much harm did it? I am increasingly seeing more support for Mogg amongst Tory members I speak to, if May goes it could well end up Mogg v Corbyn at the next general election
Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
2030?
It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.
I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up. Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally. LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
Surely we need more than one runway with Dover blocked?
On Heathrow - surely a sensible step would be to ban Cargo flights from the airport and shift that demand to other Airports? East Midlands would seem ideal given its location in relation to the logistics and distribution sector.
How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?
Almost all cargo at LHR comes in the belly-hold of passenger aircraft (well over 95%, from memory). So it wouldn't help much.
Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
2030?
It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.
I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up. Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally. LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
The new capacity that would cost about £8bn to provide at Gatwick will cost £18bn at Heathrow, making Heathrow by far the most expensive airport in the world — which is why BA, its main user, opposes its expansion. The new transport links to service a new Heathrow terminal are also much more costly than those that would be needed for an expanded Gatwick. Gatwick’s principal disadvantage — its less central location, about 30 miles south of London — means that fewer people suffer disturbance from airport expansion.
The business case, if you examine it, is very marginal and depends on dodgy assumptions that are already out of date. Zac has pointed out the very unhealthy relationship between the Dept of Transport and Heathrow top management with jobs swaps etc.
The quality of the debate on this has been worse than on Brexit and the decision today is driven by short term politics and has nothing to do with the national interest. It will be a long, very expensive time wasting exercise that delays doing the right thing for airport expansion,.
Gatwick expansion is dead in the water - too remote and the airlines don't want it. It was only ever a contingency plan anyway, cooked up in the unlikely event that the Third Runway was blocked. Now that genie has been freed, it's never going back in the lamp.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
Well being a backbench irritant then being leader did not do Corbyn too much harm did it? I am increasingly seeing more support for Mogg amongst Tory members I speak to, if May goes it could well end up Mogg v Corbyn at the next general election
You seriously think Corbyn is doing a good job?
He had four good weeks in 2017. Granted, they were four important weeks but that apart, his leadership of Labour has been pretty disastrous apart from in membership recruitment (and that's a distinctly double-edged sword).
Corbyn also had 18 months in which to find his feet (in which he singularly failed; he faced a challenge within a year, he suffered scores of front-bench resignations, and Labour was polling in the mid-20s in March 2017); Mogg, or whoever, would become PM on Day 1.
Mogg is massively overrated as a potential leader, not least because he may well not even stand and if he does, I don't see where he finds the 80-90 MP votes he'd need to make the members' run-off.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
Well being a backbench irritant then being leader did not do Corbyn too much harm did it? I am increasingly seeing more support for Mogg amongst Tory members I speak to, if May goes it could well end up Mogg v Corbyn at the next general election
You seriously think Corbyn is doing a good job?
He had four good weeks in 2017. Granted, they were four important weeks but that apart, his leadership of Labour has been pretty disastrous apart from in membership recruitment (and that's a distinctly double-edged sword).
Corbyn also had 18 months in which to find his feet (in which he singularly failed; he faced a challenge within a year, he suffered scores of front-bench resignations, and Labour was polling in the mid-20s in March 2017); Mogg, or whoever, would become PM on Day 1.
Mogg is massively overrated as a potential leader, not least because he may well not even stand and if he does, I don't see where he finds the 80-90 MP votes he'd need to make the members' run-off.
Corbyn got the biggest increase in Labour MPs since Tony Blair at the last general election.
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
”Tracey Ullman has been filming in Walton-on-Thames this morning dressed in full Corbyn attire standing in front of a mocked up Labour Live tickets stall. ”
On Heathrow - surely a sensible step would be to ban Cargo flights from the airport and shift that demand to other Airports? East Midlands would seem ideal given its location in relation to the logistics and distribution sector.
How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?
East Midlands already is very freight oriented. It is the only UK Airport to fly all night, so that freight can be onwardly distributed next day.
I know, because the flightpath goes over my house and they use older, noisier planes for freight.
Matt Hancock will give his decision on the Sky takeover once transport secretary Chris Grayling finishes answering questions from MPs about Heathrow Airport.
Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.
That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
Well, maybe, but set against that you have the decline in living standards as prices have risen faster than pay.
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
Matt Hancock will give his decision on the Sky takeover once transport secretary Chris Grayling finishes answering questions from MPs about Heathrow Airport.
'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
The by-election wasn't even that big a loss. In the post-Iraq circumstances, the LDs were always going to stand a chance. Given that it was over three months from then until the VoNC, did it really play that big a role? The plotting would have happened over the summer either way, though no doubt it helped sharpen minds (and knives).
It's an object lesson in how the Lib Dems can come out of nowhere and then disappear. They held Brent East, and then Brent Central, from 2003-2015, and dominated local government in the constituency, and then they vanished.
'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
No, because May did not get to the membership vote. Which ever two get put to the membership vote you can then make a judgement about how representative of the Con party membership as a whole Conhome polls are and make your choice. IMHO May would have lost to Leadsom if the membership voted. Other opinions are available.
So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
No it isn't at all as even on that poll May was in the top 3 and Gove came third and of course May led all the Conservative Home polls before Leadsom pulled out.
May also topped the January 2016 Conservative Home poll
'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
Why do you think those 80 (or 125) MPs would be voting en masse for Jacob Rees-Mogg rather than, for example, Michael Gove or any of the half dozen other crazed Europhobes who look in the mirror and see a modern day Churchill?
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
We really need a new sensible political party...
Those 80 MPs are not simply Mogg's for the taking though - any bona fide Leave candidate will bid for them too.
Flights to Heathrow from Aberdeen and Inverness, and even some from Edinburgh & Glasgow, are in danger of being squeezed out of their landing slots in favour of bigger, more lucrative flights.
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
We really need a new sensible political party...
Those 80 MPs are not simply Mogg's for the taking though - any bona fide Leave candidate will bid for them too.
Flights to Heathrow from Aberdeen and Inverness, and even some from Edinburgh & Glasgow, are in danger of being squeezed out of their landing slots in favour of bigger, more lucrative flights.
Well quite. Heathrow isn't competing with other airports within the UK (Well except Gatwick maybe), it is competing with Schipol.
Seems government position is Comcast bid for Sky is absolutely fine, 21CF bid will be accepted if they divest Sky News. But they can divest it to Disney, which is looking to take-over 21CF.
So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
Flights to Heathrow from Aberdeen and Inverness, and even some from Edinburgh & Glasgow, are in danger of being squeezed out of their landing slots in favour of bigger, more lucrative flights.
Yup, and every foggy day in winter half the domestic BA flights get cancelled to keep the long haul schedule running. It’s something that likely affects a number of Scotland’s MPs directly.
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
We really need a new sensible political party...
Those 80 MPs are not simply Mogg's for the taking though - any bona fide Leave candidate will bid for them too.
Whatever happens I suspect a vacuous platitude like Brexit means Brexit won't suffice next time.
Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.
That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
Well, maybe, but set against that you have the decline in living standards as prices have risen faster than pay.
Probably better still is to look at per capita Gross Disposable Household Income, incorporating taxes and direct benefits. These are not inflation adjusted, but do give an indication of widespread stagnant or falling incomes. Even the best performing (Cambridge) is merely matching inflation. Tories saying "You have never had it so good" are not likely to get a positive hearing at the ballot box.
'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
And theres less Tory MPs now then then
Fewer, please.
Though I suppose lesser is also true in this context...
Seems government position is Comcast bid for Sky is absolutely fine, 21CF bid will be accepted if they divest Sky News. But they can divest it to Disney, which is looking to take-over 21CF.
So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
The by-election wasn't even that big a loss. In the post-Iraq circumstances, the LDs were always going to stand a chance. Given that it was over three months from then until the VoNC, did it really play that big a role? The plotting would have happened over the summer either way, though no doubt it helped sharpen minds (and knives).
It's an object lesson in how the Lib Dems can come out of nowhere and then disappear. They held Brent East, and then Brent Central, from 2003-2015, and dominated local government in the constituency, and then they vanished.
Indeed - a sad case. Undone by the hubris and vanity of Clegg and Cable who led them into the disasters of the coalition.
Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.
That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
Well, maybe, but set against that you have the decline in living standards as prices have risen faster than pay.
Probably better still is to look at per capita Gross Disposable Household Income, incorporating taxes and direct benefits. These are not inflation adjusted, but do give an indication of widespread stagnant or falling incomes. Even the best performing (Cambridge) is merely matching inflation. Tories saying "You have never had it so good" are not likely to get a positive hearing at the ballot box.
Comments
However May leads most current polls unlike IDS and of course Michael Howard ended up with 33% in 2005, 1% less than the 34% the Tories were on in the final yougov with him as leader so replacing him.made zero difference.
The only time ousting a Tory leader midterm made a real difference was when Major replaced Thatcher and dumped the poll tax but it set the stage for over a decade out of power after the 1992 win and deep party splits
Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5
2030?
https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1003940482404290560
Will Uncle Vince come out in favour of international trade ?
How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?
I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
Eh?
Glad to see progress on this, it’s the most critical project for post-Brexit trade and we need to be digging yesterday.
Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally.
LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
The business case, if you examine it, is very marginal and depends on dodgy assumptions that are already out of date. Zac has pointed out the very unhealthy relationship between the Dept of Transport and Heathrow top management with jobs swaps etc.
The quality of the debate on this has been worse than on Brexit and the decision today is driven by short term politics and has nothing to do with the national interest. It will be a long, very expensive time wasting exercise that delays doing the right thing for airport expansion,.
https://twitter.com/VirendraSharma/status/976413750944202753
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1115/1115.pdf
He had four good weeks in 2017. Granted, they were four important weeks but that apart, his leadership of Labour has been pretty disastrous apart from in membership recruitment (and that's a distinctly double-edged sword).
Corbyn also had 18 months in which to find his feet (in which he singularly failed; he faced a challenge within a year, he suffered scores of front-bench resignations, and Labour was polling in the mid-20s in March 2017); Mogg, or whoever, would become PM on Day 1.
Mogg is massively overrated as a potential leader, not least because he may well not even stand and if he does, I don't see where he finds the 80-90 MP votes he'd need to make the members' run-off.
There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.
https://i2.wp.com/thedockyards.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Stadium.jpeg
”Tracey Ullman has been filming in Walton-on-Thames this morning dressed in full Corbyn attire standing in front of a mocked up Labour Live tickets stall. ”
"Of course it has to be led by a man, because it is a very challenging position," Mr Baker said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44369163
Other views are available...
I know, because the flightpath goes over my house and they use older, noisier planes for freight.
1 - Gove 30%
2 - Boris 22%
3 - May 16%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
In late 2015 George Osborne CH PBUH had led the ConHome polls for several months in a row.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/03/your-regular-reminder-that-laying-the-favourite-in-the-next-tory-leader-market-is-usually-very-profitable/
I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
And theres less Tory MPs now then then
someone telling them to stuff it where the sun don't shine live on TV is going to be prime viewing
IMHO May would have lost to Leadsom if the membership voted. Other opinions are available.
May also topped the January 2016 Conservative Home poll
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/01/our-future-tory-leader-feels-the-brexit-factor-as-theresa-may-goes-top.html
Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
Why do you think those 80 (or 125) MPs would be voting en masse for Jacob Rees-Mogg rather than, for example, Michael Gove or any of the half dozen other crazed Europhobes who look in the mirror and see a modern day Churchill?
So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
NEW THREAD
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/regionalaccounts/grossdisposablehouseholdincome/bulletins/regionalgrossdisposablehouseholdincomegdhi/1997to2016
And theres less Tory MPs now then then
Fewer, please.
Though I suppose lesser is also true in this context...
Those who want individual salaries to increase need first to increase productivity.