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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is this proof that the DUP won’t be supporting the government

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Sandpit, I think that Vettel has taken some new parts (not exceeding the limit, but nudging it). Can't recall about Hamilton.

    But over the course of the season I agree with you that Red Bull will suffer relative to their rivals due to reliability.

    Mr. Rog, the books, I believe, have been signed off for a few years now. Because the EU decided to create their own little group to check their own books and decide they were ok.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    JackW said:

    Attempting a "charm offensive" with the DUP may be likened to attempting a charm offensive with a crocodile - You might think you can tickle its tummy and wrestle with the beast but in the end you get rolled over numerous times, drowned and eaten.

    Revenge for the DUP crocodile is a meal best eaten cold and when the Conservatives are near dead in the water the Ulster reptiles will consume them.

    The DUP would happily swap PM May for PM Rees Mogg I agree on that, PM Mogg would also have the bonus of being anti abortion as well as pro hard Brexit
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    Charles said:

    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on leaving or remaining in the EU.

    NHS funding can change over time. The desire of some politicians is permanently binding our hands and giving the key to the foreign political institution the electorate just voted to leave.

    It was a key part of the campaign.

    The man who ran the Leave campaign has said Leave would have lost without that pledge.
    And the beauty of direct accountability is the voters can kick Gove and Johnson out at the next election if they want
    I think the voters of Uxbridge might just do that to Johnson! Michael Gove looks safe while he’s a Tory.
    Johnson would have easily held Uxbridge on the Hillingdon local election results in May
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Austrian Chancellor sets out alternative vision of Europe involving less Europe. Reduce the size of the commission and live within means.


    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article176975668/Sebastian-Kurz-Oesterreichs-Kanzler-will-EU-Kommission-verkleinern.html
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,002
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Attempting a "charm offensive" with the DUP may be likened to attempting a charm offensive with a crocodile - You might think you can tickle its tummy and wrestle with the beast but in the end you get rolled over numerous times, drowned and eaten.

    Revenge for the DUP crocodile is a meal best eaten cold and when the Conservatives are near dead in the water the Ulster reptiles will consume them.

    The DUP would happily swap PM May for PM Rees Mogg I agree on that, PM Mogg would also have the bonus of being anti abortion as well as pro hard Brexit
    He’s Catholic though. That might cause a bit of a cough.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    Austrian Chancellor sets out alternative vision of Europe involving less Europe. Reduce the size of the commission and live within means.


    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article176975668/Sebastian-Kurz-Oesterreichs-Kanzler-will-EU-Kommission-verkleinern.html

    It'll never catch on....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    Foxy said:

    Mr. P, what's the point of devolution if Westminster can impose changes in a devolved matter that have neither approval of the people of the devolved area nor the devolved political body?

    Mr. Eagles, the notion the public will think "Yes, we voted to leave the EU. I'm glad our politicians have decided we can't make our own trade policy and we should hand that over to a foreign political body that will dictate our trade deals without taking any account of the UK's interests. That certainly seems democratic and reasonable to me" is fanciful at best.

    A transitional deal may work. A permanent one would be thoroughly wretched, the act of politicians more interested in serving the interests of the EU than those of the British electorate.

    Edited extra bit: changed 'or' to 'nor'.

    Though there is widespread support for "Vassal State Brexit" considerably in excess of WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1003616082257678336?s=19
    ERA with immigration restrictions the only option with majority support
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035

    RoyalBlue said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:



    Why do you think borders would close? Do we not import food from countries not in the Customs Union? How do you think that Peruvian asparagus ends up in Tescos? Or New Zealand lamb? Or....

    There is no doubt that not being in any Customs Union would be an irritant to trade, particularly with items that have long international supply chains such as cars, but suggesting that we could not feed ourselves is frankly absurd. As usual in this debate there is no sense of proportion which means the up and down sides get absurdly exaggerated.

    Thus demonstrating the folly of the "I know better than the ports and customs and import/export industries" viewpoint.

    We leave the Customs Union and Single Market on 29te, maybe. But not in 9 months.

    Do you think we get a lot of trucks from New Zealand or Peru? This really is nonsense. And we are working on electronic borders for exporters and importers in accordance with the UCC program I linked to earlier. It is an EU requirement to have such systems in place by 2020.
    You’ve hit the nail on the head. New Zealand and Peru are irrin terms of supply chains etc.
    Oh dear God...

    This is clueless. New Zealand exporters to the UK don't send a special load to the UK and a different load to the EU. They import everything to transshipment ports like Rotterdam. So our "product of New Zealand" is an EU import.

    Again, please please please go and read up on logistics before you fuck this up for everyone.
    err

    that looks to me like in future they change their loading policies and ship direct to UK. Just because theyre doing it today doesnt mean they will continue to do it. There may as a consequence be fewer shipments or some added cost but that looks the more sensible thing for companies to do.
    Does that help you on day one? Week one? Month one? Year one?
    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.
    Like training train drivers on new routes, eh?
    Dependencies.

    You cannot hold more stock if there are long lead times or the stock is unavailable, or you do not have enough suitable storage (as well as other reasons), and you cannot train drivers on new routes if those routes are not completed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Attempting a "charm offensive" with the DUP may be likened to attempting a charm offensive with a crocodile - You might think you can tickle its tummy and wrestle with the beast but in the end you get rolled over numerous times, drowned and eaten.

    Revenge for the DUP crocodile is a meal best eaten cold and when the Conservatives are near dead in the water the Ulster reptiles will consume them.

    The DUP would happily swap PM May for PM Rees Mogg I agree on that, PM Mogg would also have the bonus of being anti abortion as well as pro hard Brexit
    He’s Catholic though. That might cause a bit of a cough.
    Nope, not any more Ian Paisley Jnr even tweeted a Catholic priest's support for the DUP's pro life stance at the weekend and the DUP are now openly targeting Catholic social conservatives
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250
    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When asked if they could change heir supply chain they said that given 18 months they would be able to reconfigure their business so that JIT parts were held in warehouses they'd need to build so that disruption from leaving the EEA/CU could be minimised. That this would make Swindon the most expensive place in the world to build a Honda and thus wouldn't happen doesn't seem to bother crash brexiteers, nor that they don't have 18 months.

    And JIT is the same for so many other industries. Its all very well for Alanbrooke et al to scoff and say "just add more stock". At what cost? Paid by whom? Stored where? When industry warns of massive price rises post Brexit its called project fear yet the cost of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The problem for Brexiteers is not that new customs arrangements can't be reached, it's that they lied to the public about how quickly and painlessly they could be achieved.

    Could take 10 years and cost billions.

    Which means at least 1, and probably more than 1 General Election, each of which has the potential to completely shuffle the deck.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Scott_P said:

    The problem for Brexiteers is not that new customs arrangements can't be reached, it's that they lied to the public about how quickly and painlessly they could be achieved.

    Could take 10 years and cost billions.

    Which means at least 1, and probably more than 1 General Election, each of which has the potential to completely shuffle the deck.

    Better stop sniping and make sure the Tories win then, eh?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Mr. Sandpit, I think that Vettel has taken some new parts (not exceeding the limit, but nudging it). Can't recall about Hamilton.

    But over the course of the season I agree with you that Red Bull will suffer relative to their rivals due to reliability.

    Mr. Rog, the books, I believe, have been signed off for a few years now. Because the EU decided to create their own little group to check their own books and decide they were ok.

    It was before Baku they last published the list, there’s been a few more bits used since then. I think Lewis is still on #1 of everything though.
    https://www.f1today.net/en/news/f1/237743/updated-list-for-power-unit-components-used
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    There needs to be a discussion about some practical points. Whilst we debate the whys and wherefores of a customs union and try to ignore the same for the EEA, I have not yet heard any credible authoritative source state clearly that this country would be able to continue to function economically if we leave both next March.

    Park the politics for a minute and ask how we continue to feed ourselves if the borders effectively close which is the collective view of absolutely everyone who knows how things actually work should we fall off the cliff in 9 months.

    We don't get a transition period if there is no agreed deal to transition into. The EU can play the ultimate in hardball on this because although the UK border closing would hurt them it would cripple us - and the benefit to the EU is that no other country muttering about the EU would follow suit.

    It doesn't matter if May is PM or not, if it harms Tory or Labour chances at some future date - crash out hard brexit is an extinction level event for any politician or political party who allows it to happen.

    It isn't for the Tories, the majority of whose voters voted for Leave and the Tories are more at risk from a revived UKIP if we stay in the EEA and Customs Union with free movement. At most the Tories would lose a few Remainers to the LDs but keep a majority of their voters.

    It might be for Labour as most Labour voters voted Remain and If they went en masse to the LDs after Corbyn failed to stop WTO terms Brexit
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250
    Funny that Abortion rights will be the thing that does it for the DUP. They're already getting fan mail from the Catholic Church, and anything that dislodges them from "we've had devolution suspended and we have the government over a barrel" won't wash for Arlene "Hail Mary" Foster. Of course NI needs to enter the 20th century in this issue, and that is precisely why the DUP will try and stop it
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    Better stop sniping and make sure the Tories win then, eh?

    Why?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Austrian Chancellor sets out alternative vision of Europe involving less Europe. Reduce the size of the commission and live within means.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article176975668/Sebastian-Kurz-Oesterreichs-Kanzler-will-EU-Kommission-verkleinern.html

    If there was any appetite within Europe for this, they could have prevented the Brexit vote and the rise of a number of populist parties. So it ain’t going to happen.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Sandpit, that could make the difference in the title race. Shame that Vettel had some bad luck. He deserves to be leading.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When asked if they could change heir supply chain they said that given 18 months they would be able to reconfigure their business so that JIT parts were held in warehouses they'd need to build so that disruption from leaving the EEA/CU could be minimised. That this would make Swindon the most expensive place in the world to build a Honda and thus wouldn't happen doesn't seem to bother crash brexiteers, nor that they don't have 18 months.

    And JIT is the same for so many other industries. Its all very well for Alanbrooke et al to scoff and say "just add more stock". At what cost? Paid by whom? Stored where? When industry warns of massive price rises post Brexit its called project fear yet the cost of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.

    You simply take a point that there will be adaption costs - there will - and then spin it out to claim it's aramageddon. Large car companies have huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Funny that Abortion rights will be the thing that does it for the DUP. They're already getting fan mail from the Catholic Church, and anything that dislodges them from "we've had devolution suspended and we have the government over a barrel" won't wash for Arlene "Hail Mary" Foster. Of course NI needs to enter the 20th century in this issue, and that is precisely why the DUP will try and stop it

    Ironically, abortion could end up being the issue that gets the NI parties back together in Stormont. Specifically the chance that feminists in the UK Parliament might try and force a vote on it there.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Funny that Abortion rights will be the thing that does it for the DUP. They're already getting fan mail from the Catholic Church, and anything that dislodges them from "we've had devolution suspended and we have the government over a barrel" won't wash for Arlene "Hail Mary" Foster. Of course NI needs to enter the 20th century in this issue, and that is precisely why the DUP will try and stop it

    and there was me thinking we were in the 21 century
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is what appeasing the EU gets you. As I have said for months (years?) if May sells out in the final deal the electoral blowback will be horrific. UK public will not stand for humiliation at the hands of the EU and the Remainers. Hard Brexit is the only way she can maintain the support she already has.
    This is exactly right. Staying in the Customs Union tries to ch in place.
    There seems to be a serious lack of nuance in your comments.

    Will people care if Brexit does not mean more control for the British people and parliament in the medium term? Yes.

    Will people care if the transition from CET to a British External Tariff takes (say) five years, and there are no economic issues along the way? Of course not.

    People care about:
    (1) Their personal economic circumstances
    (2) The direction of travel

    My view is that by far the biggest threat to Brexit is a major recession. We have been lucky, to date, that external demand has been buttressed by acceleration in growth among all our major trading partners.

    When we entered the EEC we had a seven year transition from Imperial Preference Tariffs to the Common External Tariff. I don't think we need the same length of transition again, but I also think this idea that a time limited customs agreement is somehow a sell out is insanity.
    Again, the problem is not with the Leavers. It is the EU that rejects a time limited customs agreement, just as they have rejected any sort of 'soft' Brexit that is not EEA status. The EU will not agree to any transition that is not under the current terms (eg vassal state).

    The only problem from the Leavers point of view is that the EU now 'reject' FTA Brexit as well because of the bogus issue of NI. So we will just leave without a deal as there clearly is no deal on offer that is not EEA-plus.

    The CU debate is about trying to stay in the SM, and ignores the fact that we can only do that via accepting FOM. The moment the Remainers 'win' the CU argument, they will have to start 're-defining' what constitutes FOM because only EEA-plus is available.

    Face it - this is all about rejecting the verdict of the referendum.
    Opinium yesterday found a majority would accept EEA plus restrictions including a job offer requirement to come here rather than pure FOM, that would be similar to the transition controls we could have had in 2004.

    In December the EU and UK agreed enough regulatory alignment between the UK and Republic of Ireland to enable Canada style FTA talks
    i'd take that.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,124
    Albeit one of those who had their escape routes from Götterdämmerung well planned beforehand, though tbf that doesn't really distinguish him from any other high profile Leaver.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When asked if they could change heir supply chain they said that given 18 months they would be able to reconfigure their business so that JIT parts were held in warehouses they'd need to build so that disruption from leaving the EEA/CU could be minimised. That this would make Swindon the most expensive place in the world to build a Honda and thus wouldn't happen doesn't seem to bother crash brexiteers, nor that they don't have 18 months.

    And JIT is the same for so many other industries. Its all very well for Alanbrooke et al to scoff and say "just add more stock". At what cost? Paid by whom? Stored where? When industry warns of massive price rises post Brexit its called project fear yet the cost of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.

    You simply take a point that there will be adaption costs - there will - and then spin it out to claim it's aramageddon. Large car companies have huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost issue. Why should they bother? Their entire business ethos is JIT. No Honda factory on the globe operates the way you'd have it, and if they went through the rigmarole we'd end up so uncompetitive on unit costs that the factory closes anyway. And its not just Honda Swindon - they all operate the same way. As do our train factories.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We needed 5 years to allow business and infrastructure to adapt, to allow local companies to try and scale up and take business back into the UK from elsewhere. Maybe then we would have been ok.

    But instead Mrs Dipshit and her band of idiots have failed to negotiate themselves out of their paper bag, and we face crashing out with the emphasis on crash. Ignore it all you like. You won't be able to do that for long. Industry has just issued May with a put up or shut up directive - she either tells them how their businesses will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    They rent it when they need . Or is that a shock to you ?

    Peugeot and Renault hold up to a year's stock of some parts when they are unsure of the supplier they are using due to strikes and trading.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Scott_P said:
    Funny that, the more often politicians people are on the TV trying to find ways of derailing the will of the people, the more disillusioned those people are that the government will actually implement what they voted for.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250


    i'd take that.

    Exactly. Leaving the EU isn't the problem. Its leaving the EEA/CU that's the problem. We leave the EU. We join EFTA. We keep trading. We announce a "new" plan to deport EU migrants after 3 months. The Hate Mail will love it. Job done.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When asked if they could change heir supply chain they said that given 18 months they would be able to reconfigure their business so that JIT parts were held in warehouses they'd need to build so that disruption from leaving the EEA/CU could be minimised. That this would make Swindon the most expensive place in the world to build a Honda and thus wouldn't happen doesn't seem to bother crash brexiteers, nor that they don't have 18 months.

    And JIT is the same for so many other industries. Its all very well for Alanbrooke et al to scoff and say "just add more stock". At what cost? Paid by whom? Stored where? When industry warns of massive price rises post Brexit its called project fear yet the cost of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.

    You simply take a point that there will be adaption costs - there will - and then spin it out to claim it's aramageddon. Large car companies have huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    The problems they’re used to getting round don’t include systemic breakdowns. During the fuel protests supermarket shelves were emptied.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,002

    Funny that Abortion rights will be the thing that does it for the DUP. They're already getting fan mail from the Catholic Church, and anything that dislodges them from "we've had devolution suspended and we have the government over a barrel" won't wash for Arlene "Hail Mary" Foster. Of course NI needs to enter the 20th century in this issue, and that is precisely why the DUP will try and stop it

    and there was me thinking we were in the 21 century
    Sarcasm doesn’t always work, Mr P, does it!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    They rent it when they need .

    And massively increase their costs...

    Making them more expensive, or uneconomic.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704


    i'd take that.

    Exactly. Leaving the EU isn't the problem. Its leaving the EEA/CU that's the problem. We leave the EU. We join EFTA. We keep trading. We announce a "new" plan to deport EU migrants after 3 months. The Hate Mail will love it. Job done.
    Yes, the important issue for what i think are a good proportion of leavers is that they do not want to be part of the policitical union of the EU. The economic fair trade area is pretty important, and on the 'whole' probably needed.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.

    You simply take a point that there will be adaption costs - there will - and then spin it out to claim it's aramageddon. Large car companies have huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost issue. Why should they bother? Their entire business ethos is JIT. No Honda factory on the globe operates the way you'd have it, and if they went through the rigmarole we'd end up so uncompetitive on unit costs that the factory closes anyway. And its not just Honda Swindon - they all operate the same way. As do our train factories.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We needed 5 years to allow business and infrastructure to adapt, to allow local companies to try and scale up and take business back into the UK from elsewhere. Maybe then we would have been ok.

    But instead Mrs Dipshit and her band of idiots have failed to negotiate themselves out of their paper bag, and we face crashing out with the emphasis on crash. Ignore it all you like. You won't be able to do that for long. Industry has just issued May with a put up or shut up directive - she either tells them how their businesses will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies adapt all the time and pay for it out of their trading. When aluminium or steel go shooting up they pay it, when petrol seeps through to their logistics costs they pay it. When Fukushima takes out large chunks of their key suppliers they resource and air ship parts and it costs them money. No company is guaranteed a profit and cost shocks are a feature of business.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited June 2018

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When asked if they could change heir supply chain they said that given 18 months they would be able to reconfigure their business so that JIT parts were held in warehouses they'd need to build so that disruption from leaving the EEA/CU could be minimised. That this would make Swindon the most expensive place in the world to build a Honda and thus wouldn't happen doesn't seem to bother crash brexiteers, nor that they don't have 18 months.

    And JIT is the same for so many other industries. Its all very well for Alanbrooke et al to scoff and say "just add more stock". At what cost? Paid by whom? Stored where? When industry warns of massive price rises post Brexit its called project fear yet the cost of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.

    You simply take a point that there will be adaption costs - there will - and then spin it out to claim it's aramageddon. Large car companies have huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    The problems they’re used to getting round don’t include systemic breakdowns. During the fuel protests supermarket shelves were emptied.
    No they weren’t.

    There were some shortages of bread and milk for a few days, most local supply issues were caused by panic buying. Just the sort of panic that certain groups of people are trying to stoke up now.

    http://iwar.org.uk/cip/resources/PSEPC/fuel-price-protests.htm
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,960


    i'd take that.

    Exactly. Leaving the EU isn't the problem. Its leaving the EEA/CU that's the problem. We leave the EU. We join EFTA. We keep trading. We announce a "new" plan to deport EU migrants after 3 months. The Hate Mail will love it. Job done.
    You do know that being in EFTA precludes being in the CU don't you?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost issue. Why should they bother? Their entire business ethos is JIT. No Honda factory on the globe operates the way you'd have it, and if they went through the rigmarole we'd end up so uncompetitive on unit costs that the factory closes anyway. And its not just Honda Swindon - they all operate the same way. As do our train factories.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We needed 5 years to allow business and infrastructure to adapt, to allow local companies to try and scale up and take business back into the UK from elsewhere. Maybe then we would have been ok.

    But instead Mrs Dipshit and her band of idiots have failed to negotiate themselves out of their paper bag, and we face crashing out with the emphasis on crash. Ignore it all you like. You won't be able to do that for long. Industry has just issued May with a put up or shut up directive - she either tells them how their businesses will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies adapt all the time and pay for it out of their trading. When aluminium or steel go shooting up they pay it, when petrol seeps through to their logistics costs they pay it. When Fukushima takes out large chunks of their key suppliers they resource and air ship parts and it costs them money. No company is guaranteed a profit and cost shocks are a feature of business.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Scott_P said:

    They rent it when they need .

    And massively increase their costs...

    Making them more expensive, or uneconomic.
    silly ramping. Even if you spent £1m on additional warehousing that's just in the rounding for companies with £10+bn turnover. The increase on their JIT petrol bill would be bigger than that based on May's price increases.


  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost issue. Why should they bother? Their entire business ethos is JIT. No Honda factory on the globe operates the way you'd have it, and if they went through the rigmarole we'd end up so uncompetitive on unit costs that the factory closes anyway. And its not just Honda Swindon - they all operate the same way. As do our train factories.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We needed 5 years to allow business and infrastructure to adapt, to allow local companies to try and scale up and take business back into the UK from elsewhere. Maybe then we would have been ok.

    But instead Mrs Dipshit and her band of idiots have failed to negotiate themselves out of their paper bag, and we face crashing out with the emphasis on crash. Ignore it all you like. You won't be able to do that for long. Industry has just issued May with a put up or shut up directive - she either tells them how their businesses will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Funny that, the more often politicians people are on the TV trying to find ways of derailing the will of the people...
    When the 'will of the people' is an inchoate desire to return to the past, politicians are on a hiding to nothing whatever they try to do... unless you're suggesting we come up with our own version of Trump ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We needed 5 years to allow business and infrastructure to adapt, to allow local companies to try and scale up and take business back into the UK from elsewhere. Maybe then we would have been ok.

    But instead Mrs Dipshit and her band of idiots have failed to negotiate themselves out of their paper bag, and we face crashing out with the emphasis on crash. Ignore it all you like. You won't be able to do that for long. Industry has just issued May with a put up or shut up directive - she either tells them how their businesses will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    edited June 2018
    Off topic?

    I heard yesterday that two of the very largest marketers in the U.K. - I won’t say who - are well advanced in their plans to move their European marketing HQs to Amsterdam.

    Knock on effect on the U.K. advertising industry - one of the few industries where we are genuine world leaders - expected to be significant (though, as with all these things, loss of billings won’t happen “overnight” as contracts wind down etc).
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,313
    So Brexiters are having a hissy fit when rational people aren't saying stop Brexit, they aren't calling for a second referendum, or even passing comment on the wisdom of the vote to leave. They are just pointing out that a properly organised Brexit, of whatever flavour, would and will take years to arrange - ie the bleedin' obvious.

    And the Brexiters shout "Traitor". A sign, IMO, that they know the whole thing is a shitshow and are trying to shout the loudest to drown out their own doubts.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,313

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gaant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost issue. Why should they bother? Their entire business ethos is JIT. No Honda factory on the globe operates the way you'd have it, and if they went through the rigmarole we'd end up so uncompetitive on unit costs that the factory closes anyway. And its not just Honda Swindon - they all operate the same way. As do our train factories.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We needed 5 years to allow business and infrastructure to adapt, to allow local companies to try and scale up and take business back into the UK from elsewhere. Maybe then we would have been ok.

    But instead Mrs Dipshit and her band of idiots have failed to negotiate themselves out of their paper bag, and we face crashing out with the emphasis on crash. Ignore it all you like. You won't be able to do that for long. Industry has just issued May with a put up or shut up directive - she either tells them how their businesses will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Vote Brexit - let's take control of closing down all our uneconomic car plants.

    Add that one to the list - productivity, technical education, class sizes, etc.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
    Why are you bothering?

    The economic model approved by Brexiters - Minfordism - assumes that manufacturing will collapse as we cannot do it cost effectively in the brave new world.

    Have the courage of your convictions.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gaant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost iss will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Vote Brexit - let's take control of closing down all our uneconomic car plants.

    Add that one to the list - productivity, technical education, class sizes, etc.
    lol

    you were noticeably silent when all those other car plants closed down like Ford Southampton where the EU subsidised Turkey to transfer the jobs and production.

    Why the sudden interest ?

    I thought you'd be flat hunting in Frankfurt by now.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    So Brexiters are having a hissy fit when rational people aren't saying stop Brexit, they aren't calling for a second referendum, or even passing comment on the wisdom of the vote to leave. They are just pointing out that a properly organised Brexit, of whatever flavour, would and will take years to arrange - ie the bleedin' obvious.

    And the Brexiters shout "Traitor". A sign, IMO, that they know the whole thing is a shitshow and are trying to shout the loudest to drown out their own doubts.

    You ain’t seen nothing yet.

    Let us imagine Brexit turns into a shit show and economics forced us to rejoin the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen.

    I suspect Leavers will be like the Japanese on Okinawa after the battle.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mr Gove would be an excellent PM - I hope he takes over as soon as possible.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited June 2018

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    ..

    ...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
    Indeed. A quick look at a satellite pic of Honda’s factory shows that it’s on a disused airfield site, with plenty of paved space for warehousing, and surrounded by fields on and off site. It wouldn’t be rocket science to be able to store more parts there if they thought there would be a few weeks of supply chain disruption.

    There will also be a team of logistics professionals there, who will be well accustomed to lead times, possible shocks, product shortages and the need to use alternative means of transport for delivery if necessary to keep the lines running. They’ll happily charter a plane for a handful components if they need to, it’s just one of the many costs of doing business.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
    See the post below yours, Scott :-)

    JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Scott_P said:

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
    “Hilarious” that we are having these discussions just nine months out.

    The government is gravely culpable of gross malfeasance. How long before Brexit’s answer to the Chilcot enquiry?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of thecturing are different.
    Why are you bothering?

    The economic model approved by Brexiters - Minfordism - assumes that manufacturing will collapse as we cannot do it cost effectively in the brave new world.

    Have the courage of your convictions.
    I do and as I point out the economics of manufacturing changes all the time. You don't work in manufacturing so how would you know what will come. The UK manufacturing sector will do better outside the EU than in it. And will do even better if we had a government which wished to seriously rebalance the economy.

  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Funny that, the more often politicians people are on the TV trying to find ways of derailing the will of the people...
    When the 'will of the people' is an inchoate desire to return to the past, politicians are on a hiding to nothing whatever they try to do... unless you're suggesting we come up with our own version of Trump ?
    The people voted to create an imaginary and unattainable world which cannot be delivered. They were told that leaving the EU would be easy, cost nothing and all the benefits of membership could be retained without any of the downsides. All of this could be brought about simply by placing an X in the leave box. They were told, in effect, that 2 plus 2 could be made to equal 5 simply by voting for it to be so.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,627

    TOPPING said:

    So Brexiters are having a hissy fit when rational people aren't saying stop Brexit, they aren't calling for a second referendum, or even passing comment on the wisdom of the vote to leave. They are just pointing out that a properly organised Brexit, of whatever flavour, would and will take years to arrange - ie the bleedin' obvious.

    And the Brexiters shout "Traitor". A sign, IMO, that they know the whole thing is a shitshow and are trying to shout the loudest to drown out their own doubts.

    You ain’t seen nothing yet.

    Let us imagine Brexit turns into a shit show and economics forced us to rejoin the EU replete with the Euro and Schengen.

    I suspect Leavers will be like the Japanese on Okinawa after the battle.
    I'd rather be fully in with the Euro and Shengen than the current half-baked in-ness we have.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Scott_P said:

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
    Ho hum

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,313

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gaant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost iss will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Vote Brexit - let's take control of closing down all our uneconomic car plants.

    Add that one to the list - productivity, technical education, class sizes, etc.
    lol

    you were noticeably silent when all those other car plants closed down like Ford Southampton where the EU subsidised Turkey to transfer the jobs and production.

    Why the sudden interest ?

    I thought you'd be flat hunting in Frankfurt by now.
    Yes it was a challenging environment but there was I thinking that the government wouldn't go out of their way to put more hurdles in front of what was, in my uninformed opinion, seemingly a successful domestic industry.

    Strange times, indeed and yes, @Gardenwalker Patrick Minford must be grinning like a Cheshire cat as his plans for the destruction of UK industry come to fruition.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gaant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost iss will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Vote Brexit - let's take control of closing down all our uneconomic car plants.

    Add that one to the list - productivity, technical education, class sizes, etc.
    lol

    you were noticeably silent when all those other car plants closed down like Ford Southampton where the EU subsidised Turkey to transfer the jobs and production.

    Why the sudden interest ?

    I thought you'd be flat hunting in Frankfurt by now.
    Prior to Brexit, automotive manufacturing was at record levels in the UK though and the government proclaimed it proudly quite regularly. So not sure where you get this idea there was no interest.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gave evidence. When as of all this will be massive.

    Not that its even an option for a significant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of thecturing are different.
    Why are you bothering?

    The economic model approved by Brexiters - Minfordism - assumes that manufacturing will collapse as we cannot do it cost effectively in the brave new world.

    Have the courage of your convictions.
    I do and as I point out the economics of manufacturing changes all the time. You don't work in manufacturing so how would you know what will come. The UK manufacturing sector will do better outside the EU than in it. And will do even better if we had a government which wished to seriously rebalance the economy.

    Putting aside the rebalancing point, with which I have some sympathy, you are the only person claiming that manufacturing will do better outside the EU.

    Put up or shut up.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The paucity of vision of those that continue to think our post Brexit fortunes will be fixed forever by any deal rather than the actions of the citizens and government over the next decades is startling.

    Get out from under nurse's petticoats.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    JonathanD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gaant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost iss will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Vote Brexit - let's take control of closing down all our uneconomic car plants.

    Add that one to the list - productivity, technical education, class sizes, etc.
    lol

    you were noticeably silent when all those other car plants closed down like Ford Southampton where the EU subsidised Turkey to transfer the jobs and production.

    Why the sudden interest ?

    I thought you'd be flat hunting in Frankfurt by now.
    Prior to Brexit, automotive manufacturing was at record levels in the UK though and the government proclaimed it proudly quite regularly. So not sure where you get this idea there was no interest.
    record UK car manufacturing output was circa 1972. Weve never hit those levels since
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.

    They store them in other peoples warehouses. In other countries. With JIT shipping...

    That's the whole point
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,313
    On some kind of topic:

    This shit just got serious - the first candidate to respond well to Michael McIntyre getting mugged will leap to favourite in the next Mayor of London market.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
    Honda rocked up to parliament and gaant part of the food industry. You can't hold more stock on short life products, it just rots.

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
    *facepalm" you aren't addressing the cost iss will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheble future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Vote Brexit - let's take control of closing down all our uneconomic car plants.

    Add that one to the list - productivity, technical education, class sizes, etc.
    lol

    you were noticeably silent when all those other car plants closed down like Ford Southampton where the EU subsidised Turkey to transfer the jobs and production.

    Why the sudden interest ?

    I thought you'd be flat hunting in Frankfurt by now.
    Yes it was a challenging environment but there was I thinking that the government wouldn't go out of their way to put more hurdles in front of what was, in my uninformed opinion, seemingly a successful domestic industry.

    Strange times, indeed and yes, @Gardenwalker Patrick Minford must be grinning like a Cheshire cat as his plans for the destruction of UK industry come to fruition.
    the car industry has always progressed despite government rather than because of it.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    Did they not include JRM in their 'selected others'?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited June 2018

    Scott_P said:

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
    See the post below yours, Scott :-)

    JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
    Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    I am on Alanbrookes side in this. No car manufacturing company in the UK uses JIT from European suppliers. i.e the lorry from Europe going from EU component place to UK factory and arriving at the exact moment. They all use intermediate warehousing and lots of it.
    JLR use DHL who handle all of their logistics from intermediate warehouse to JLR factory.
    The statement that Honda have one hour stock in the factory or Nissan has 1/2 a day is correct the question is how much stock is held in the intermediate warehouse.
    Also in the statements to the select committee both Nissan and Honda said that 205% of the components they use come from Japan and take 6 weeks with no guaranteed arrival time apart from a few days. How is this JIT?

    The issue the car industry has to solve and solve it they will is to keep getting enough staock into the intermediate warehouse to supply the factory.
    The issue for the UK government is to reduce the cost of doing business in the UK to offset the increase in logistics costs. This is the famous quote from the Japanese Ambassador on the steps of Downing Street "The car factories must be profitable" translated we need compensation.

    google JLR DHL logistics to understand how it works for JLR.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2018
    Sandpit said:

    there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.

    There's no point arguing with those who deny a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.

    There's no point arguing with those who deny a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
    There isn't a chaotic situation at present. Unless you count Westminster...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,313
    edited June 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
    See the post below yours, Scott :-)

    JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
    Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, so that they can be seen to be proved right over Brexit.
    Whether it's chaotic or "just" another 10p on booze and fags which people will likely not notice, no Remainer "wants" the UK to be less well off than it currently is for some spurious idea of sovereignty which no one can define and which we possessed anyway.

    Oh yes, so that leaves the old immigration reason. And, as has been endlessly rehearsed on here, it means that we now live in a country* which has somehow legitimised or de-unlegitimised a dislike of foreigners (cf Jeremy Corbyn's Jewish Problem).

    *Not you of course.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Scott_P said:

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.

    They store them in other peoples warehouses. In other countries. With JIT shipping...

    That's the whole point
    Most don't.

    Next.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    @ralphmalph

    Why should I - in London - pay taxes to compensate Japanese owned manufacturers in the regions? Those fuckers voted Brexit, they should eat it.

    Unless you mean costs should reduce via long term wage stagnation. Which would be just.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Funny that, the more often politicians people are on the TV trying to find ways of derailing the will of the people, the more disillusioned those people are that the government will actually implement what they voted for.
    Voters think the government is doing a crap job on Brexit and that is the fault of... anyone but the government. Hmmm?

    You've spun that to your own satisfaction but I doubt you'll convince anyone who is not already a true believer.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2018

    I am on Alanbrookes side in this. No car manufacturing company in the UK uses JIT from European suppliers. i.e the lorry from Europe going from EU component place to UK factory and arriving at the exact moment.

    Bollocks

    https://automotivelogistics.media/intelligence/mini-plant-huge-complexity

    The JIS/JIT process, for example, includes full truckloads delivering in high frequency from supplier locations, some of them close to the plant and in the UK, but also several part groupings delivered in sequence from as far away as Romania.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    Scott_P said:

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.

    They store them in other peoples warehouses. In other countries. With JIT shipping...

    That's the whole point
    Most don't.

    Next.

    You seem to be more than usually rattled this morning Alan... Is it the dawning realisation of the shitfest Brexit has, and was always going to, become?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
    image
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    @ralphmalph

    Why should I - in London - pay taxes to compensate Japanese owned manufacturers in the regions? Those fuckers voted Brexit, they should eat it.

    Unless you mean costs should reduce via long term wage stagnation. Which would be just.

    why should I in Warwickshire underwrite foreign owned banks in London which totally screwed the economy ?

    we can play this all day
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479

    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.

    There's no point arguing with those who deny a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
    There isn't a chaotic situation at present. Unless you count Westminster...
    Mrs May has spent the last two years negotiating with her party instead of the EU.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...

    At what cost?

    If the plant is already unprofitable...
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/04/merkel-pours-ice-cold-water-macrons-carolingian-vision/

    "Germany has swept aside France's grand plan for eurozone reform, refusing to concede any substantive step towards fiscal union or a federal EU crisis machinery to cope with the next global recession.

    The minimalist proposals offered by Chancellor Angela Merkel after months of silence rehearse long-standing German objections to a shared budget, and retreat from concessions briefly floated last year. "
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,382
    I see we’re discussing on here this morning how the EU could achieve what Admiral Dönitz couldn’t.

    Battle of La Manche?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Scott_P said:

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.

    They store them in other peoples warehouses. In other countries. With JIT shipping...

    That's the whole point
    Most don't.

    Next.

    You seem to be more than usually rattled this morning Alan... Is it the dawning realisation of the shitfest Brexit has, and was always going to, become?
    no, I'm just bored arguing with people who have never put a car together telling me how to put a car together.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Constitutional lawyer Ted Cruz on being asked about the limits of Presidential power…

    https://twitter.com/byrdinator/status/1003759232389402624?
    ….Cruz is silent for eighteen (18!) seconds before telling reporters it’s not a constitutional area he’s studied…

    Which is a fairly blatant lie:
    http://www.harvard-jlpp.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Cruz_Final.pdf
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Scott_P said:

    I am on Alanbrookes side in this. No car manufacturing company in the UK uses JIT from European suppliers. i.e the lorry from Europe going from EU component place to UK factory and arriving at the exact moment.

    Bollocks

    https://automotivelogistics.media/intelligence/mini-plant-huge-complexity

    The JIS/JIT process, for example, includes full truckloads delivering in high frequency from supplier locations, some of them close to the plant and in the UK, but also several part groupings delivered in sequence from as far away as Romania.
    lol

    and then stored in sequence near Cowley.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
    You appear to be addressing a point I didn't make.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    I see we’re discussing on here this morning how the EU could achieve what Admiral Dönitz couldn’t.

    Battle of La Manche?

    Not even I think that the EU wants to starve us into surrendering.

    O/T there were some good PMI data this morning.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:

    I am on Alanbrookes side in this. No car manufacturing company in the UK uses JIT from European suppliers. i.e the lorry from Europe going from EU component place to UK factory and arriving at the exact moment.

    Bollocks

    https://automotivelogistics.media/intelligence/mini-plant-huge-complexity

    The JIS/JIT process, for example, includes full truckloads delivering in high frequency from supplier locations, some of them close to the plant and in the UK, but also several part groupings delivered in sequence from as far away as Romania.
    The article states that Mini on site has 65,000 m2 of logistics space. Mini owns it's intermediate warehouse. As I said the real question is how many days supply of the parts shipped from Romania they hold. It will not be zero.
    Having said that using JIT for 1 part when the car contains 35,000 parts is not JIT manufacturing.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2018

    and then stored in sequence near Cowley.

    That's explicitly not what the article says.

    I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    TGOHF said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/04/merkel-pours-ice-cold-water-macrons-carolingian-vision/

    "Germany has swept aside France's grand plan for eurozone reform, refusing to concede any substantive step towards fiscal union or a federal EU crisis machinery to cope with the next global recession.

    The minimalist proposals offered by Chancellor Angela Merkel after months of silence rehearse long-standing German objections to a shared budget, and retreat from concessions briefly floated last year. "

    It's almost like the Germans want to have their cake and eat it...
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Nigelb said:


    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,

    This happens in companies all the time.

    That's not how auto industry JIT works.

    They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...

    Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
    Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain.
    huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.

    We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
    Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.

    wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
    Or might just shut it down...
    the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
    Quite.
    We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
    If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.

    However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
    You appear to be addressing a point I didn't make.
    it was more interesting than the rest of your post.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    @ralphmalph

    Why should I - in London - pay taxes to compensate Japanese owned manufacturers in the regions? Those fuckers voted Brexit, they should eat it.

    Unless you mean costs should reduce via long term wage stagnation. Which would be just.

    You already do. Go and Google APC - Advanced Propulsion Centre the Govt put 500million in to secure EV manufacture in the UK. It is why the Nissan Leaf is made here and the iPace will be made here ( that will cost the UK taxpayer another 450mill).
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.

    Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
    See the post below yours, Scott :-)

    JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
    Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
    There is a difference between pointing out that we might be heading for a chaotic situation, and sleepwalking into one.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Scott_P said:

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.

    They store them in other peoples warehouses. In other countries. With JIT shipping...

    That's the whole point
    Most don't.

    Next.

    You seem to be more than usually rattled this morning Alan... Is it the dawning realisation of the shitfest Brexit has, and was always going to, become?
    no, I'm just bored arguing with people who have never put a car together telling me how to put a car together.

    We've had enough of experts...
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Scott_P said:

    and then stored in sequence near Cowley.

    That's explicitly not what the article says.

    I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
    No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...

    At what cost?

    If the plant is already unprofitable...
    Do you really think that car manufacturers make knee-jerk reactions over multi-billion pound facilities, based on what the politicians are up to this month or this year?

    While they will undoubtedly make representations to the government about what’s going on, the reality is that they will take a long term view of whatever new arrangements are put in place, will evaluate future investment decisions when they have all the information they need to hand.

    A process such as the UK leaving the EU will have a long list of short term and long term positive and negative externalities for any given business. There will be plenty of business that increase their UK activity as a result of Brexit, especially so if it’s followed by a more friendly regulatory and tax environment.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Scott_P said:

    car manufacturers store parts all over the place and then ship it in to their warehouses. Next.

    They store them in other peoples warehouses. In other countries. With JIT shipping...

    That's the whole point
    Most don't.

    Next.

    You seem to be more than usually rattled this morning Alan... Is it the dawning realisation of the shitfest Brexit has, and was always going to, become?
    no, I'm just bored arguing with people who have never put a car together telling me how to put a car together.

    We've had enough of experts...
    lol
This discussion has been closed.