Looks like the UK economy and Eurozone economy are heading in opposite directions at the moment. Very poor data coming out of Euro countries and UK indicators all showing a limited or fair recovery.
I'm still of the opinion that the ONS areies.
- They would have spent the last two years in the nations with whom we already have trade deals via the EU and got them to agree a 5-10 year roll over or extension pending a review for customisation instead of fannying about with Trump and Turnbull.
- Move access for EU governments/businesses to London's capital markets to third nation status, force them to either try and raise money under their own jurisdiction or in New York which would be at a much higher cost.
- Cut corporation tax to 15% to ensure the loyalty of big business in the face of possibly higher tariff costs for EU importation.
Our report was predicated on preparing for the worst case scenario wrt to EU trade (that no meaningful deal could be arranged in the short time period available under A50) and then negotiating a full free trade deal (which includes mutual standards recognition etc...) from the outside after both sides agree a very basic zero goods tariff arrangement (which massively favours the EU).
Or to paraphrase: we shouldn't
That was not in the control of the City or the government. The people voted to leave. It is up to the government to deliver that, they have done a shockingly poor job.
You'll be interested to know I have a job offer from a Japanese bank, it comes with a promise that the role will not be moving to any European city!
Congrats! You decided against Macquarie, then - just be aware that when you are filling in some of the registration forms that ask "has your employer ever been sanctioned...."
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
The Conservatives would do well to choose a leader who drives their opponents mad for non-Brexit reasons. Jeremy Hunt and Esther McVey are the obvious options.
I think Sajid would possibly fit the bill better than those two but they could all work.
Mr. Slackbladder, interesting suggestion. Another way of expressing that would be to say that Cabinet/departmental experience is harmful, no?
The second king of Rome was Numa. He wasn't even in Rome. They had to go send some people to tell him and ask him to visit the city. Maybe left-field choices with limited experience (see also Julian the Apostate) can work well.
As an aside, that reminds me of Emperor Anastasius. He had no son, but three nephews. So, he decided to invite them over to join him for a meal. Under a pillow on one of the three empty couches he placed a piece of paper with the word 'emperor' written on it. Whoever opted for said couch would be named his heir.
Unfortunately two of his nephews were rather friendlier with one another than he imagined. They opted to share a couch, and the imperial one was left empty.
How the Gods no doubt laughed.
I'm not sure that Slackbladders linking LotO's to performance as PM is that strong. Sure, it usually takes something for a LotO to get elected in the first place - most LotO's never become PM - whereas those who take over mid-term have a much easier task becoming PM, but then they also tend to take over either in or after a crisis, or after a long period of someone else's leadership. Besides, there are enough counter-examples to make it a pretty shaky rule-of-thumb.
Serious question...I was reading the other day that reddit is now one of the world most visited websites / platforms (claims that even more than Facebook in the US *)...I don't get it, it is a total omnishambles of a platform.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
No, though it'd prove that the numbers were there for such an amendment, if one was needed - and there are enough Brexit bills going through parliament to enable such an amendment to be introduced.
Serious question...I was reading the other day that reddit is now one of the world most visited websites / platforms (claims that even more than Facebook in the US *)...I don't get it, it is a total omnishambles of a platform.
Don't forget that's exactly what was said of May. It isn't so much her personality, although May was always going to be found out for what she was, and indeed has been, but the majority and the internecine fighting.
Put anyone in charge of that and they'd be similarly hamstrung.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
The government has a big decision to take in the event of a defeat. Is it simply going to ignore the vote? Or is it going to take it as a negotiating instruction? Either approach is going to lead to pandemonium.
I think they will ignore it (in terms of substance).
That will be "brave". If supporters of a customs union are satisfied that they're in a majority in the House of Commons and the government signals that it is going to ignore the vote, the rack will be tightened progressively.
Tracey Ullman’s writing room are sharpening their pencils...
Going to be hiliarous to see them all shouting to empty crowds. I hope it's on video so I can get a good laugh at the crusties, and Owen Jones.
Just looked at the musical lineup - never heard of any of them. Back in Kinnock's day Labour could rely on a veritable Who's Who of British pop:
Red Wedge organised a number of major tours. The first, in January and February 1986, featured Bragg, Weller's band The Style Council, The Communards, Junior Giscombe, Lorna Gee and Jerry Dammers, and picked up guest appearances from Madness, The The, Heaven 17, Bananarama, Prefab Sprout, Elvis Costello, Gary Kemp, Tom Robinson, Sade, The Beat, Lloyd Cole, The Blow Monkeys, Joolz and The Smiths.
The line-up was definitely not booked by any down wit da kidz types, more some middle aged Guardian reader who think they know music. The Magic Numbers haven't had a hit for 10 years and I doubt any student types have heard of them and certainly not what mainstream kidz listen to these days.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Minds being focussed as the chance of a contest this year increases?
I think Gove is rightly now the favourite, followed by Hunt and Javid as the three serious contenders for an imminent contest. This following a year and a half of laying favourites.
JRM is wishful thinking by a certain group of MPs and members (as was Boris before him), he’s got no ministerial experience which will all but disqualify him if the vacancy is for PM rather than LotO.
I agree. I do wonder whether Gove would really be keen for the top job; he's really more suited to being a Number Two. A Javid-Gove team would, however, be incredibly strong.
I'm not sure about Hunt in current circumstances. He'd be a good unity candidate but I don't think a unity candidate is viable before March 2019: the Brexit divisions are too wide to try to span the gaps, which is where May has come unstuck (not helped by her natural vacillation and bunker-mentality).
Do you think Gove might reluctantly allow himself to be dragged through the door of No.10 agreeing to be a caretaker for a year to sort out Brexit, followed by a summer ‘19 contest and a general election?
No, I think if Gove decided that he did need to run for leader and PM, he'd be in it for the long haul - to sort Brexit out, yes, but he's been innovative enough at both Justice and Environment to show that he has a broad and interesting agenda which I think given the opportunity, he'd take the chance to try to implement. I could well see him, were he elected this year, having a long-term plan of wanting to fight the 2022 election and only then, perhaps, thinking of standing down in, say, 2025/6.
Serious question...I was reading the other day that reddit is now one of the world most visited websites / platforms (claims that even more than Facebook in the US *)...I don't get it, it is a total omnishambles of a platform.
Labour Live was an imaginative idea poorly executed. It's a shame because political parties will now shy away from non-traditional ways of engaging the public.
Don't forget that's exactly what was said of May. It isn't so much her personality, although May was always going to be found out for what she was, and indeed has been, but the majority and the internecine fighting.
Put anyone in charge of that and they'd be similarly hamstrung.
Except May inherited a majority and an utterly riven opposition bench with Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO.
Serious question...I was reading the other day that reddit is now one of the world most visited websites / platforms (claims that even more than Facebook in the US *)...I don't get it, it is a total omnishambles of a platform.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
Probably a hefty deposit, 50% or so from my long ago memory of such things as a student ents guy. Much better to cancel before the fences, stage, AV equipment and lots of staff actually turn up at the venue though, which is probably this weekend. 3k tickets at £35 is £105k in refunds they’d need to make as well.
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
Don't forget that's exactly what was said of May. It isn't so much her personality, although May was always going to be found out for what she was, and indeed has been, but the majority and the internecine fighting.
Put anyone in charge of that and they'd be similarly hamstrung.
Except May inherited a majority and an utterly riven opposition bench with Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO.
Labour Live was an imaginative idea poorly executed. It's a shame because political parties will now shy away from non-traditional ways of engaging the public.
The big flaw in LabourLive was that it was not designed to engage the public. Who on earth is going to pay £30 to hear Corbyn, McDonnell, Jones et al speak in a park in North London? Only the most committed left-winger. It’s the ultimate in comfort zone politics. A free event in the Midlands or North West; now that might have been different. The problem is, though, that the far left only likes to talk to itself.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
Probably a hefty deposit, 50% or so from my long ago memory of such things as a student ents guy. Much better to cancel before the fences, stage, AV equipment and lots of staff actually turn up at the venue though, which is probably this weekend. 3k tickets at £35 is £105k in refunds they’d need to make as well.
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
There will be a large crowd. There will be lots of pictures and videos of people having a great time. The PR will be just fine.
The huge financial loss from papering the house will be quietly swallowed.
Don't forget that's exactly what was said of May. It isn't so much her personality, although May was always going to be found out for what she was, and indeed has been, but the majority and the internecine fighting.
Put anyone in charge of that and they'd be similarly hamstrung.
I think a Javid/Gove ticket makes much more sense than May/Hammond. The former two are much more representative of the membership on Europe and most other issues. I also think if that ticket went up against the remainer/CU ticket they would get a huge win in the members ballot which would probably get enough of the Tory remainer rebels in back in line with the manifesto.
The Conservative Muslim Forum yesterday called for an investigation into Islamophobia in the Tory Party. Now, let’s see Sajid Javid try and smear them.
The Conservative Muslim Forum yesterday called for an investigation into Islamophobia in the Tory Party. Now, let’s see Sajid Javid try and smear them.
What happens if Javid becomes PM? Can't very well have an Islamaphobic party at the same time as having a PM from a Muslim background.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
The government has a big decision to take in the event of a defeat. Is it simply going to ignore the vote? Or is it going to take it as a negotiating instruction? Either approach is going to lead to pandemonium.
I think they will ignore it (in terms of substance).
That will be "brave". If supporters of a customs union are satisfied that they're in a majority in the House of Commons and the government signals that it is going to ignore the vote, the rack will be tightened progressively.
Surely the important vote is the one in October on substance rather than next week which just asks what is being done?
The Conservative Muslim Forum yesterday called for an investigation into Islamophobia in the Tory Party. Now, let’s see Sajid Javid try and smear them.
What happens if Javid becomes PM? Can't very well have an Islamaphobic party at the same time as having a PM from a Muslim background.
Wrong type of muslim I guess. Like Corbyn meeting the wrong jews I s'pose.
Mr. P, dislike that. Even if she loses a key vote, then loses a vote of no confidence, that might put it past that deadline, and she could remain as caretaker until her successor is selected.
Not impossible, but improbable.
Edited extra bit: worth noting that, excepting the Lib Dem contest (which had really helpful timing for me almost throughout), I tend to be rubbish at these markets.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
Probably a hefty deposit, 50% or so from my long ago memory of such things as a student ents guy. Much better to cancel before the fences, stage, AV equipment and lots of staff actually turn up at the venue though, which is probably this weekend. 3k tickets at £35 is £105k in refunds they’d need to make as well.
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
There will be a large crowd. There will be lots of pictures and videos of people having a great time. The PR will be just fine.
The huge financial loss from papering the house will be quietly swallowed.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
Probably a hefty deposit, 50% or so from my long ago memory of such things as a student ents guy. Much better to cancel before the fences, stage, AV equipment and lots of staff actually turn up at the venue though, which is probably this weekend. 3k tickets at £35 is £105k in refunds they’d need to make as well.
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
There will be a large crowd. There will be lots of pictures and videos of people having a great time. The PR will be just fine.
The huge financial loss from papering the house will be quietly swallowed.
Against that, there’s the really committed 3,000 people who are now lighting up Twitter furious that they paid £35 plus transport to go to what’s now basically a free event. Those refunds might well need to be made whether or not it the gig goes ahead.
Plus the assorted politicians, journalists and satirists that will keep the story of the shambles running for a couple of weeks. Some of whom can obviously be dismissed as Tories and Blairites, but as we saw last weekend with Tracey Ullman that there’s a very thin skin among a lot of the Faithful.
The right call was probably to bin it a month ago, but they are where they are now, so as you say it might be better for them just to let it run and eat the loss from a kind donor.
Labour Live was an imaginative idea poorly executed. It's a shame because political parties will now shy away from non-traditional ways of engaging the public.
The big flaw in LabourLive was that it was not designed to engage the public. Who on earth is going to pay £30 to hear Corbyn, McDonnell, Jones et al speak in a park in North London? Only the most committed left-winger. It’s the ultimate in comfort zone politics. A free event in the Midlands or North West; now that might have been different. The problem is, though, that the far left only likes to talk to itself.
The line-up is really rubbish. Not even Billy Bragg is on the bill.
The timetable for that doesn't work. A leadership challenge would need a contest this time between an ERG ticket and a Remainer ticket which goes to the members. There's no way to get that done before the end of the month.
Labour Live was an imaginative idea poorly executed. It's a shame because political parties will now shy away from non-traditional ways of engaging the public.
The big flaw in LabourLive was that it was not designed to engage the public. Who on earth is going to pay £30 to hear Corbyn, McDonnell, Jones et al speak in a park in North London? Only the most committed left-winger. It’s the ultimate in comfort zone politics. A free event in the Midlands or North West; now that might have been different. The problem is, though, that the far left only likes to talk to itself.
The line-up is really rubbish. Not even Billy Bragg is on the bill.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
Probably a hefty deposit, 50% or so from my long ago memory of such things as a student ents guy. Much better to cancel before the fences, stage, AV equipment and lots of staff actually turn up at the venue though, which is probably this weekend. 3k tickets at £35 is £105k in refunds they’d need to make as well.
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
There will be a large crowd. There will be lots of pictures and videos of people having a great time. The PR will be just fine.
The huge financial loss from papering the house will be quietly swallowed.
Maybe Corbyn could perform a few hits.
Some East German and Russian folk songs interspersed with some Venezuelan classics?
10/1 on the PM announcing that she would resign by the end of June might be reasonable, but it’s much less likely that she actually gets replaced in the next 25 days.
The timetable for that doesn't work. A leadership challenge would need a contest this time between an ERG ticket and a Remainer ticket which goes to the members. There's no way to get that done before the end of the month.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Mr. Eagles, yeah but that was because Davis stepped aside, thinking he'd get the longer term gig, and there wasn't anybody else who fancied a crack at two years opposition and near inevitable General Election failure.
The prize this time is being Prime Minister with the possibility of winning the next election.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Javid is the answer to a lot of the questions being asked at the moment. He was before the last leadership election as well, but he's got real experience in government to back that as well now.
David Cameron took 20 days to be replaced after his resignation, I can’t see how it happens much quicker than that in government. The members also won’t be too happy not to get a say in two consecutive PM elections.
10/1 is still short, given how quickly it'd all have to happen. Yes, you can see the route but that's just to say it's not out in three figures; it's not to take account of the multiple hurdles necessary for it to come about.
Mr. Eagles, yeah but that was because Davis stepped aside, thinking he'd get the longer term gig, and there wasn't anybody else who fancied a crack at two years opposition and near inevitable General Election failure.
The prize this time is being Prime Minister with the possibility of winning the next election.
There several people who fancied the gig but were persuaded by the men in grey suits that they shouldn't stand.
I found out years later that Francis Maude recorded his interview denouncing Iain Duncan Smith's conference speech two days before IDS gave his speech.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Javid is the answer to a lot of the questions being asked at the moment. He was before the last leadership election as well, but he's got real experience in government to back that as well now.
Javid always looked like the better choice than Crabb, it's a shame he was the also-ran on that ticket.
10/1 is still short, given how quickly it'd all have to happen. Yes, you can see the route but that's just to say it's not out in three figures; it's not to take account of the multiple hurdles necessary for it to come about.
10/1 is still short, given how quickly it'd all have to happen. Yes, you can see the route but that's just to say it's not out in three figures; it's not to take account of the multiple hurdles necessary for it to come about.
I'd want around 33/1.
If it was end of July I'd be tempted at 10/1. Not June.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Javid is the answer to a lot of the questions being asked at the moment. He was before the last leadership election as well, but he's got real experience in government to back that as well now.
He’d better get a grip of the Windrush situation pdq, though. Firung Caroline Noakes (sp?) might be a start.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Javid is the answer to a lot of the questions being asked at the moment. He was before the last leadership election as well, but he's got real experience in government to back that as well now.
He is. Comfortable in his own skin. Competent on TV. Not an annoying voice. Younger than LOTO. Neutralises Islamophobia noises. Would he stand up to the Civil Service and commit to Brexit though?
Does this mean that all those dudes that have gone on and on about workable technological solutions for borders haven't actually done a stroke of work about speccing those solutions up?
Does this mean that all those dudes that have gone on and on about workable technological solutions for borders haven't actually done a stroke of work about speccing those solutions up?
Labour Live was an imaginative idea poorly executed. It's a shame because political parties will now shy away from non-traditional ways of engaging the public.
The big flaw in LabourLive was that it was not designed to engage the public. Who on earth is going to pay £30 to hear Corbyn, McDonnell, Jones et al speak in a park in North London? Only the most committed left-winger. It’s the ultimate in comfort zone politics. A free event in the Midlands or North West; now that might have been different. The problem is, though, that the far left only likes to talk to itself.
When the three top billed acts placed at the top of the poster are all in the shadow cabinet you know you’re in trouble.
"The former International Development Secretary [Patel] has been working the tea rooms hard in recent weeks and making her displeasure with the current leadership quite clear, according to one source."
Kind of On topic for this mornings discussion but OT as far as the EU debate goes.
Last year I did the Stanford course on Nuclear Terrorism which was run by Former Secretary of Defence William Perry. What was fascinating is how critical he and his associates were of the JIT concept in terms of its vulnerability to terrorism and how bad things are going to turn out to be for the US and the rest of the first world when an incident happens. They were pointing out that it is currently absolutely impossible to monitor and control these systems in terms of security and that the idea that the US currently has border security which could pick up, for example, the components of a smuggled nuclear device including the fissile material is a complete illusion.
His nightmare scenario, which he thinks is very likely to happen, is an attempt to detonate a device in one of the US (or European/Asian) ports. Even if the damage was negligible the effect on world trade would be catastrophic and the experts he was talking to estimated that within 48 hours of such an incident all world trade would effectively cease due to security logjams at ports.
"Stanford course on Nuclear Terrorism..." - on addressing it, I hope ?
But this is indeed a serious concern. There is work being done on detection solutions, I believe, but practical systems are quite some way off. (For example.. www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/17/12/2960/pdf )
Anyone think Boris might quit the Cabinet over Heathrow today and launch a challenge to Theresa next week?
Anyone with a positive vision for post-Brexit Britain needs to be in favour of getting that runway built as quickly as possible - and a fourth one next to it.
Labour Live was an imaginative idea poorly executed. It's a shame because political parties will now shy away from non-traditional ways of engaging the public.
The big flaw in LabourLive was that it was not designed to engage the public. Who on earth is going to pay £30 to hear Corbyn, McDonnell, Jones et al speak in a park in North London? Only the most committed left-winger. It’s the ultimate in comfort zone politics. A free event in the Midlands or North West; now that might have been different. The problem is, though, that the far left only likes to talk to itself.
When the three top billed acts placed at the top of the poster are all in the shadow cabinet you know you’re in trouble.
It seems to have occurred to nobody organizing this that all the bands who might attract the kids would already be booked solid doing outdoor festivals all through the summer.
Does this mean that all those dudes that have gone on and on about workable technological solutions for borders haven't actually done a stroke of work about speccing those solutions up?
Bit difficult to do if you've no idea what it might be that you're supposed to be finding a solution to. I expect Mrs. May will get around to thinking about it sometime or other.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Javid is the answer to a lot of the questions being asked at the moment. He was before the last leadership election as well, but he's got real experience in government to back that as well now.
He’d better get a grip of the Windrush situation pdq, though. Firung Caroline Noakes (sp?) might be a start.
Nokes.
She's only been in the position since January and the problems pre-date that, what's she done to deserve being fired?
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Would they not have had to pay a fair amount of the staging, security costs etc. up front?
Probably a hefty deposit, 50% or so from my long ago memory of such things as a student ents guy. Much better to cancel before the fences, stage, AV equipment and lots of staff actually turn up at the venue though, which is probably this weekend. 3k tickets at £35 is £105k in refunds they’d need to make as well.
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
There will be a large crowd. There will be lots of pictures and videos of people having a great time. The PR will be just fine.
The huge financial loss from papering the house will be quietly swallowed.
Maybe Corbyn could perform a few hits.
Some East German and Russian folk songs interspersed with some Venezuelan classics?
4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
I'm loving the irony here. DUP insist that NI must not be treated as different from rest of UK when talking about customs unions and all that. But abortion?
Looking bad for this government now. Abortion, EU vote on 12th, Heathrow in 21 days. All potential massive bombs.
Kind of On topic for this mornings discussion but OT as far as the EU debate goes.
Last year I did the Stanford course on Nuclear Terrorism which was run by Former Secretary of Defence William Perry. What was fascinating is how critical he and his associates were of the JIT concept in terms of its vulnerability to terrorism and how bad things are going to turn out to be for the US and the rest of the first world when an incident happens. They were pointing out that it is currently absolutely impossible to monitor and control these systems in terms of security and that the idea that the US currently has border security which could pick up, for example, the components of a smuggled nuclear device including the fissile material is a complete illusion.
His nightmare scenario, which he thinks is very likely to happen, is an attempt to detonate a device in one of the US (or European/Asian) ports. Even if the damage was negligible the effect on world trade would be catastrophic and the experts he was talking to estimated that within 48 hours of such an incident all world trade would effectively cease due to security logjams at ports.
"Stanford course on Nuclear Terrorism..." - on addressing it, I hope ?
But this is indeed a serious concern. There is work being done on detection solutions, I believe, but practical systems are quite some way off. (For example.. www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/17/12/2960/pdf )
Yep they were talking about these. What was most interesting is how insecure these 'sealed at source' containers are.
The course runs every year and is well worth doing even if you don't bother to do the homework/get the grades.
A very wise move - maybe the party can move on now. PSOE have just appointed a former leader as foreign minister who previously had to step down --- you guessed it --- because of a financial scandal.
A very wise move - maybe the party can move on now. PSOE have just appointed a former leader as foreign minister who previously had to step down --- you guessed it --- because of a financial scandal.
Since there's not been any election surely the electoral maths that got PP in charge still stand? If a new PP leader can win back the support of the Basques then they'll have the numbers to take back control surely?
Sounds as though Ricciardo will have penalties this weekend, Mr.D...
...Newey also refuted suggestions the MGU-K in Ricciardo’s car is salvageable. “I rather doubt it, considering it caught fire and was a burnt out, charred wreck,” Newey told Reuters. “I would be somewhat surprised at that one.” “He will definitely be taking some penalties in Montreal, we haven’t heard at the moment just how many,” he added...
A very wise move - maybe the party can move on now. PSOE have just appointed a former leader as foreign minister who previously had to step down --- you guessed it --- because of a financial scandal.
Since there's not been any election surely the electoral maths that got PP in charge still stand? If a new PP leader can win back the support of the Basques then they'll have the numbers to take back control surely?
You are correct - Sanchez is playing a dangerous game with under a quarter of the deputies and almost any of the other minorities tying his hands.
Anyone think Boris might quit the Cabinet over Heathrow today and launch a challenge to Theresa next week?
I hope so , but very much doubt that he has the tenacity.
Well he's been watching his personal ratings going down and down and down since June 2016 to the point that now most punters and commentators think he's out of contention when it comes to the Con leadership - If he's going to revive his fortunes he's got to do something shocking to shake things up.
Anyone think Boris might quit the Cabinet over Heathrow today and launch a challenge to Theresa next week?
Highly possible. I noted the other day that Heathrow was back on the agenda with a potential 3 line whip.
Yes. I thought the issue was dead and buried but clearly not. This would be a great way for Boris to destabilize Theresa without having to ally himself too closely with the Brexit headbangers.
Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.
That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.
This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
Anyone think Boris might quit the Cabinet over Heathrow today and launch a challenge to Theresa next week?
I hope so , but very much doubt that he has the tenacity.
Well he's been watching his personal ratings going down and down and down since June 2016 to the point that now most punters and commentators think he's out of contention when it comes to the Con leadership - If he's going to revive his fortunes he's got to do something shocking to shake things up.
And he's got to do it quickly.
I think he may just have too cautious a temperament.
Gove keeps the very fragile Labour voting alliance together, as does Hunt. If the Tories want a workable majority next time - instead of just winning most seats - they need to find a leader who millions of people will not actively want to vote against.
Javid is the answer to a lot of the questions being asked at the moment. He was before the last leadership election as well, but he's got real experience in government to back that as well now.
He’d better get a grip of the Windrush situation pdq, though. Firung Caroline Noakes (sp?) might be a start.
Nokes.
She's only been in the position since January and the problems pre-date that, what's she done to deserve being fired?
Comments
I'm not sure that Slackbladders linking LotO's to performance as PM is that strong. Sure, it usually takes something for a LotO to get elected in the first place - most LotO's never become PM - whereas those who take over mid-term have a much easier task becoming PM, but then they also tend to take over either in or after a crisis, or after a long period of someone else's leadership. Besides, there are enough counter-examples to make it a pretty shaky rule-of-thumb.
Don't forget that's exactly what was said of May. It isn't so much her personality, although May was always going to be found out for what she was, and indeed has been, but the majority and the internecine fighting.
Put anyone in charge of that and they'd be similarly hamstrung.
(hint, it starts with P and ends with an N)
It sounds like they’ve got themselves into a right financial mess, whereby they’ve already paid out what they’ve made in ticket sales, so are now hoping that if they can fill the venue they’ll be able to pay everyone from the bar takings. That’s almost always a bad commercial decision, leaving aside the political and media angles of this specific event.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44366997
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1003930623604613121?s=21
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1003931705114333190?s=21
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1003931741042675713?s=21
The huge financial loss from papering the house will be quietly swallowed.
https://www.thelocal.it/20180604/italy-families-minister-lorenzo-fontana-pharma-hack
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1003951966937116672
Not impossible, but improbable.
Edited extra bit: worth noting that, excepting the Lib Dem contest (which had really helpful timing for me almost throughout), I tend to be rubbish at these markets.
Plus the assorted politicians, journalists and satirists that will keep the story of the shambles running for a couple of weeks. Some of whom can obviously be dismissed as Tories and Blairites, but as we saw last weekend with Tracey Ullman that there’s a very thin skin among a lot of the Faithful.
The right call was probably to bin it a month ago, but they are where they are now, so as you say it might be better for them just to let it run and eat the loss from a kind donor.
I know SFA about the logistics or car manufacture but at least I am not on here busking it.
Was remarkable how quickly that happened.
The prize this time is being Prime Minister with the possibility of winning the next election.
David Cameron took 20 days to be replaced after his resignation, I can’t see how it happens much quicker than that in government. The members also won’t be too happy not to get a say in two consecutive PM elections.
I found out years later that Francis Maude recorded his interview denouncing Iain Duncan Smith's conference speech two days before IDS gave his speech.
There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).
The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.
Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.
Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/summer-parties-conservative-leadership-plots_uk_5b15900ce4b014707d2724ab?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
But this is indeed a serious concern. There is work being done on detection solutions, I believe, but practical systems are quite some way off.
(For example..
www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/17/12/2960/pdf )
That includes Boris.
I expect Mrs. May will get around to thinking about it sometime or other.
She's only been in the position since January and the problems pre-date that, what's she done to deserve being fired?
Looking bad for this government now. Abortion, EU vote on 12th, Heathrow in 21 days. All potential massive bombs.
The course runs every year and is well worth doing even if you don't bother to do the homework/get the grades.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1003876394298945536
Anyone got Grayling as next out from Cabinet? Could be a tie with Boris.
...Newey also refuted suggestions the MGU-K in Ricciardo’s car is salvageable.
“I rather doubt it, considering it caught fire and was a burnt out, charred wreck,” Newey told Reuters.
“I would be somewhat surprised at that one.”
“He will definitely be taking some penalties in Montreal, we haven’t heard at the moment just how many,” he added...
And he's got to do it quickly.
This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?