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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is this proof that the DUP won’t be supporting the government on the Customs Union amendment?
That'll be a yes, then. ????????Watch what happened when Commons Speaker John Bercow asked MPs whether they supported @stellacreasy's call for an emergency debate on the abortion law in Northern Ireland.Read more here: https://t.co/jFxFfx6GSg pic.twitter.com/malB2EgO3r
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FPT @rcs1000 re: Italy. Do I really need to explain the difference between mean and median?
Tony Gallagher eat you heart out.
Edit - I think it was David Howell who said of Howe's speech in 1990 'That speech must have affected all thinking Tory MPs and many others as well.'
A decision to remain in the Customs Union is not in our gift of course but if we were to ask for it then we are accepting that we will have a Common External Tariff and that the EU Commission will continue to represent us at the WTO. I think the latter is the killer point. It is unacceptable. A Customs Union which allows us to represent ourselves but has many of the other features of the Customs Union would be acceptable for a transitional period but I really don't see her surviving defeat on whether or not to leave the Customs Union.
Interestingly (well relatively) the major feature of the Customs Union other than the CET and WTO representation is the Union Customs Code which was implemented in 2016 but which will not fully come into force until 2020. It is designed to produce exactly the sort of "electronic" border that the government was talking about in NI. The Work Program for implementation of the new requirements is set out here: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32016D0578
So by remaining in the Customs Union we would be committing ourselves to having electronic border technology in place by 2020 in any event.
Voting to have the EU dictate our trade policy without having to take any account of our interests would be wretched and despicable, even if it weren't spitting in the face of the electorate.
Mr. L, a transitional arrangement, as you say, is one thing. Voting to permanently denude the UK of the right to govern its own trade policy and represent its own interests is an act against the UK in favour of the EU.
Will people care if Brexit does not mean more control for the British people and parliament in the medium term? Yes.
Will people care if the transition from CET to a British External Tariff takes (say) five years, and there are no economic issues along the way? Of course not.
People care about:
(1) Their personal economic circumstances
(2) The direction of travel
My view is that by far the biggest threat to Brexit is a major recession. We have been lucky, to date, that external demand has been buttressed by acceleration in growth among all our major trading partners.
When we entered the EEC we had a seven year transition from Imperial Preference Tariffs to the Common External Tariff. I don't think we need the same length of transition again, but I also think this idea that a time limited customs agreement is somehow a sell out is insanity.
What he expects to happen now is that the new government will implement a series of policies that cause issues with the EU. Their demand that some of the debt with the ECB is written off is one but others will be the EU's failure to assist Italy with an existential crisis with boat people from North Africa. They are determined to significantly boost Italy's deficit even though this does not comply with Euro stabilisation rules. They would very much like to see a weaker Euro, something that will not appeal to the Germans.
The view in Italy still seems to be, "we are not Greece" in that they are conscious that their size makes possible default or breakup of the Eurozone much more significant both for Italy and the Euro. Whilst that is true I personally think they underestimate how much power over their economy the ECB has.
NHS funding can change over time. The desire of some politicians is permanently binding our hands and giving the key to the foreign political institution the electorate just voted to leave.
The man who ran the Leave campaign has said Leave would have lost without that pledge.
None of the debt from the British government to the Bank of England will ever be repaid. It will be rolled over into perpetuity.
None of the debt from the US government to the Federal Reserve will ever be repaid. It will be rolled over into perpetuity.
If you don't have to pay interest on a debt, and repayment will never be demanded, in what way is it debt?
All "debt-to-GDP" numbers should reflect this reality and ignore debts owed to central banks.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1003881742162329601
Mr. Eagles, the notion the public will think "Yes, we voted to leave the EU. I'm glad our politicians have decided we can't make our own trade policy and we should hand that over to a foreign political body that will dictate our trade deals without taking any account of the UK's interests. That certainly seems democratic and reasonable to me" is fanciful at best.
A transitional deal may work. A permanent one would be thoroughly wretched, the act of politicians more interested in serving the interests of the EU than those of the British electorate.
Edited extra bit: changed 'or' to 'nor'.
Incidentally, I am not sure that you are right about the UK. It is possible to see a scenario where the UK reaches a surplus but there is a demand for gilts in the market by pension funds etc which could be met by the BoE selling some their holdings back into the market. I think the key will be whether, when these gilts reach maturity, they are simply cancelled or refinanced by more notional gilts.
Park the politics for a minute and ask how we continue to feed ourselves if the borders effectively close which is the collective view of absolutely everyone who knows how things actually work should we fall off the cliff in 9 months.
We don't get a transition period if there is no agreed deal to transition into. The EU can play the ultimate in hardball on this because although the UK border closing would hurt them it would cripple us - and the benefit to the EU is that no other country muttering about the EU would follow suit.
It doesn't matter if May is PM or not, if it harms Tory or Labour chances at some future date - crash out hard brexit is an extinction level event for any politician or political party who allows it to happen.
Could be staying in CU/SM could be something else. Add that to the general staleness of the government (1997 not 1992) and...
(1) Oh. I'm not worse off after Brexit (hopefully), yay!
(2) Look! Immigration is down to more manageable levels, and I can better afford a house, yay!
(3) I've not noticed any stories about the ECJ mandating votes for prisoners in a while. It's good that Brexit has stopped that rubbish.
And then, hopefully, they'll also read about Dr Fox's adventures in trade land. And Trump deciding that the WTO isn't evil. Etc.
If one through three are satisfied, people won't care about "(4) Our own bespoke FTA with Israel to replace the EU one". And if (1) fails, then all the FTAs with others will provide little comfort to the newly unemployed.
This doesn't mean being in control of our trade destiny is not important. But it's also not the most important thing on peoples minds right now.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1003616082257678336?s=19
A 5% recession would, in the long run, be an utterly insignificant blip on the chart.
But it would be disastrous for the 400,000 to 800,000 people who would lose their jobs. And it would almost certainly lead to the fall of the government. And it may even result in the election of a pro-EU party.
The biggest threat to Brexit is not saboteurs; it's a recession that's blamed on Brexit - however unfairly - and which changes voters minds.
The only problem from the Leavers point of view is that the EU now 'reject' FTA Brexit as well because of the bogus issue of NI. So we will just leave without a deal as there clearly is no deal on offer that is not EEA-plus.
The CU debate is about trying to stay in the SM, and ignores the fact that we can only do that via accepting FOM. The moment the Remainers 'win' the CU argument, they will have to start 're-defining' what constitutes FOM because only EEA-plus is available.
Face it - this is all about rejecting the verdict of the referendum.
There is no doubt that not being in any Customs Union would be an irritant to trade, particularly with items that have long international supply chains such as cars, but suggesting that we could not feed ourselves is frankly absurd. As usual in this debate there is no sense of proportion which means the up and down sides get absurdly exaggerated.
https://twitter.com/digbylj/status/1003722707744251904?s=21
https://twitter.com/digbylj/status/1003722709623242752?s=21
Why don’t we pay interest?
And, what would be the respective debt to GDP numbers if we followed your accounting principles?
Revenge for the DUP crocodile is a meal best eaten cold and when the Conservatives are near dead in the water the Ulster reptiles will consume them.
If wee go into recession, and especially a deep one, whilst the EU booms, then that should lead even hardened Brexiteers to wonder if we've done the right thing.
Kirstie Allsopp says her kids shouldn't fly Club Class because that's something they should aspire to.
How f*cking bourgeois is that??? Aspire to "Club Class"? That's like aspiring to wearing Old Spice or having a Colby Trouser Press.
If you want to aspire to something, make it having your own plane. And not some kind of Ford Escort of the skies, make it something decent, like at least a Citation X.
If individuals and firms are free to import but exports to our largest market are substantially impaired, the pound will drop sharply. We’ll then have the joys of accelerating inflation and rising interest rates, once the Bank of England catches up.
We leave the Customs Union and Single Market on 29th March next year, having made zero prep on either side of the border. The EU overnight require full customs checks on all movement across the EU/UK border as already happens at the EU/Any 3rd party border.
Trucks take 2 minutes to clear the border. Double that to 4 minutes and the posts/transport industries predict 17 mile queues. And the average transit time through an EU/3rd party border is 45 minutes. We leave with zero prep and the border effectively closes. Trucks take an eternity to get through. Which means they aren't in transit to/from their destinations. Which means import/export stops. And your non-EU goods which transit through the EU are stuck in the same queue.
Go and ask anyone in the industry how it works. Don't just quote platitudes and political theory thinking you know better than they do about their business. Hard Brexit doesn't work on a very real and practical basis. If we had 5 years to prepare, maybe. But not in 9 months.
But that doesn't mean it's not wretched. As I've said for years now, I was pretty relaxed about the range of possible scenarios for leaving, with the sole red line exception of the customs union, which we must leave.
Dr. Foxy, given recent performances, I'm disinclined to give tremendous weight to political polling in this country.
Mr. Freggles, show me another organisation/treaty that seeks to dictate UK trade agreements without consideration of UK interests and I'll happily condemn that/them too.
A deal on the customs union could be permanent or temporary. Temporary would have a clearly defined time limit. Permanent would not.
I'm sure McDonnell, who is at heart quite a recognisable type of Commons politician, would be up for it - Corbyn I'm not so sure, as for better or worse he is not a classic schemer, and instinctively dislikes cunning maneouvres. But if it gave the chance of power and delivering the things he actually cares out? Maybe.
Even Brexiteers must recognise that EU membership has changed the shape of our economy. We are much more embedded than we were even 10 years ago in terms of supply chains etc.
The quality of EP debate and decision-making is superior to Westminster, partly because there's no overall majority, so any significant decision gets a proper debate with compromises needed to reach an agreed conclusion. It's perfectly possible to be anti-EU membership without rubbishing a particular part of it that - in terms of whether they do what they're suppose to - works well.
"Just nonsense" they keep saying, despite all of the detailed evidence provided by the hauliers whose vehicles actually cross borders, the industries they supply, the port authorities who run the actual border and the customs / border agencies who staff them.
Its the absurd arrogance of people like Archer that will do the damage. Utterly utterly clueless, ignorant, disinterested in real life or real people as long as their dream wank fantasy of a restored Imperial Blighty free of these bloody foreigners comes to pass. You want the wankbank fantasy to work don't you? Why not listen to the people you need to make that a practical reality rather than insisting they are lying?
1) We have almost no leverage with the EU because we have made no tangible preparations for a no deal outcome.
2) There is no majority in either House of Parlinent for a meaningful Brexit.
3) The amount of time required to successfully transition out of the EU without wrecking the economy will cross at least 1 if not 2 general elections, which could reopen almost every aspect of the debate.
It’s not looking good.
This is clueless. New Zealand exporters to the UK don't send a special load to the UK and a different load to the EU. They import everything to transshipment ports like Rotterdam. So our "product of New Zealand" is an EU import.
Again, please please please go and read up on logistics before you fuck this up for everyone.
My apologies. The Earth will merely be frazzled to destruction rather than actually blown apart.
Losing your virginity: permanent
Joining a customs union: only 'permanent' if almost other act of parliament is also permanent, which begs the question of why you would use the word if not attempting to imply that joining a CU would bind future governments
Let’s face it, every summer the cross channel trade comes to a halt as the French have their annual strike, and Britons don’t die of starvation. WTO terms Brexit won’t be any different with a bit of prior planning.
that looks to me like in future they change their loading policies and ship direct to UK. Just because theyre doing it today doesnt mean they will continue to do it. There may as a consequence be fewer shipments or some added cost but that looks the more sensible thing for companies to do.
Mr. Fire, perhaps. And perhaps they'll see a woefully unprepared, dithering government and a political class set on diluting, delaying and thwarting the electorate's decision.
Well, it's a view .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/44364183
Current forecast is dry all weekend.
I think the Customs Union vote will be tight but enough Labour Leave MPs like Field, Hoey and Mann will vote to leave the Customs Union to enable the government to scrape home despite Tory Remainer rebels
Necessity is the mother of all invention, and all that.
This happens in companies all the time.
We would then be set up for a Mogg/Boris v Corbyn general election
The problem with compromises is that to get the support you need to dilute the original proposal and also give something to get that vote. This leads to 'pork barrel' politics that can also lead to corruption.
When was the last time the EU budget was signed off by the auditors btw?
They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
In December the EU and UK agreed enough regulatory alignment between the UK and Republic of Ireland to enable Canada style FTA talks