"Germany has swept aside France's grand plan for eurozone reform, refusing to concede any substantive step towards fiscal union or a federal EU crisis machinery to cope with the next global recession.
The minimalist proposals offered by Chancellor Angela Merkel after months of silence rehearse long-standing German objections to a shared budget, and retreat from concessions briefly floated last year. "
It's almost like the Germans want to have their cake and eat it...
Careful or you'll end up like Nicholas Ridley. Both of them.
Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
Unless you want to store parts outside, that is probably a non-starter.
If you want to store parts inside, and particularly if you want to store them in climate-controlled conditions where they can be accessed automagically by robots, then you need to get planning and build the warehousing. Temporary storage in trailers is probably unworkable. Building warehousing will take a year or two with planning considerations.
Off topic: I see the government is seeking 7.7% of RBS for £2.5bn, leaving 62.4% in public ownership. Does the remaining govt stake of c.£20bn count as an asset offset against gross national debt or would it effectively reduce the debt by £20bn once sold?
(PS Maybe we could give RBS to the EU to settle half what we have committed to pay them )
Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,
This happens in companies all the time.
That's not how auto industry JIT works.
They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain. huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.
wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
Or might just shut it down...
the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
Quite. We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.
However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
You appear to be addressing a point I didn't make.
it was more interesting than the rest of your post.
Sounds like the Gavin Williamson technique - if you don't like the question, answer another one.
In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
See the post below yours, Scott :-)
JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
There is a difference between pointing out that we might be heading for a chaotic situation, and sleepwalking into one.
Don’t disagree. Which is why we should be planning to leave with no deal now - even if that is only a temporary state that allows us to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
I’ve said since the day after the referendum that the EU’s tactics were going to be to negotiate in bad faith and offer only a last-minute vassal state deal, then dare us to vote against it rather than leave without a deal. And so it has come to pass.
I’ve also said that I hope the adults in the room behind the scenes are getting on with things in a constructive manner, away from the public posturing on all sides.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
See the post below yours, Scott :-)
JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
There is a difference between pointing out that we might be heading for a chaotic situation, and sleepwalking into one.
Don’t disagree. Which is why we should be planning to leave with no deal now - even if that is only a temporary state that allows us to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
I’ve said since the day after the referendum that the EU’s tactics were going to be to negotiate in bad faith and offer only a last-minute vassal state deal, then dare us to vote against it rather than leave without a deal. And so it has come to pass.
I’ve also said that I hope the adults in the room behind the scenes are getting on with things in a constructive manner, away from the public posturing on all sides.
Hey, I reluctantly said after Brexit that we should go for a friendly no-deal Brexit. Although my reasoning was that it would be because of the idiocy of the hardcore Brexiteers making a good deal impossible. I've also said that May should have treated Brexit as a minor issue, rather than shoving it front and centre and subsuming all other politics. Though again, Brexiteers such as JRM have not aided that.
And I believe I was right. It'd have been better if it had been done sooner, though.
Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,
This happens in companies all the time.
That's not how auto industry JIT works.
They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain. huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.
wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
Or might just shut it down...
the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
Quite. We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.
However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
You appear to be addressing a point I didn't make.
it was more interesting than the rest of your post.
Prior to day one if you know there is a problem you order more and hold more in stock until the new order pattern settles down,
This happens in companies all the time.
That's not how auto industry JIT works.
They can't "hold more stock". They don't have space. That's kind of the whole point...
Like I said, clueless. Its theoretical waffle which supposedly trumps real world practice and experience.
Honda were the people who in 2008 closed their factory for6 months with a few weeks notice and didn't give a stuff for their supply chain. huge logistics departments who are very skilled at getting round problems and do it every day.
We could have planned to leave everything. We neede will function post Brexit or they assume the worst.
Well a nice morning rant, but nonetheless companies usiness.
wrt Honda Swindon shipment costs is not in any case their biggest problem. They have an indifferent model range which hasn't been selling well and until this is put right they will have spare capacity for the foreseeable future.
Or might just shut it down...
the factory has been suboptimal for years. A car plant needs a volume of circa 250k a year, Honda Swindon has rarely hit those levels in all its operational history.
Quite. We're conveniently providing them with a reason to shut it down.
If the plant is uneconomic they'll close it.
However youre simply showing you have no idea of the economics of a car. No car company works on true JIT they all hold stocks of varying degrees. True JIT only works in Japan where the shortage of land puts pressure on suppliers to get parts out the door asap. In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
You appear to be addressing a point I didn't make.
it was more interesting than the rest of your post.
Sounds like the Gavin Williamson technique - if you don't like the question, answer another one.
That is the standard politician technique - GW just not especially good at it.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
Just to the left of that photo is a massive DHL logistics centre.
Swindon and the surrounding area is filled with logistics facilities, being as it is close to several major road and rail links. It’s also close to Lyneham and Brize Norton, which are covered in hangars that could be used for logistics if required.
It’s a silly idea that the logistics manager of Honda is just going to throw his hands up in the air and say he can’t deal with Brexit, like every other businessman he’ll be planning for every contingency and dealing with it. His factory doesn’t shut down every time the French unions blockade Calais for a few weeks each summer, and it won’t be shutting down next April either.
In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
See the post below yours, Scott :-)
JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
There is a difference between pointing out that we might be heading for a chaotic situation, and sleepwalking into one.
Don’t disagree. Which is why we should be planning to leave with no deal now - even if that is only a temporary state that allows us to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
I’ve said since the day after the referendum that the EU’s tactics were going to be to negotiate in bad faith and offer only a last-minute vassal state deal, then dare us to vote against it rather than leave without a deal. And so it has come to pass.
I’ve also said that I hope the adults in the room behind the scenes are getting on with things in a constructive manner, away from the public posturing on all sides.
And you have been quite right, expect for the last bit.
"Germany has swept aside France's grand plan for eurozone reform, refusing to concede any substantive step towards fiscal union or a federal EU crisis machinery to cope with the next global recession.
The minimalist proposals offered by Chancellor Angela Merkel after months of silence rehearse long-standing German objections to a shared budget, and retreat from concessions briefly floated last year. "
There already is a fiscal union. It is called Target 2. Has Merkel just not noticed or is she just a complete liar?
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
Just to the left of that photo is a massive DHL logistics centre.
Swindon and the surrounding area is filled with logistics facilities, being as it is close to several major road and rail links. It’s also close to Lyneham and Brize Norton, which are covered in hangars that could be used for logistics if required.
It’s a silly idea that the logistics manager of Honda is just going to throw his hands up in the air and say he can’t deal with Brexit, like every other businessman he’ll be planning for every contingency and dealing with it. His factory doesn’t shut down every time the French unions blockade Calais for a few weeks each summer, and it won’t be shutting down next April either.
And those logistics facilities will just bend over backwards to help the car manufacturers using all the masses of excess capacity (*) they have, and for free? At the very least, even if it is feasible operationally, it'll be one heck of an extra cost.
Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
Just to the left of that photo is a massive DHL logistics centre.
Swindon and the surrounding area is filled with logistics facilities, being as it is close to several major road and rail links. It’s also close to Lyneham and Brize Norton, which are covered in hangars that could be used for logistics if required.
It’s a silly idea that the logistics manager of Honda is just going to throw his hands up in the air and say he can’t deal with Brexit, like every other businessman he’ll be planning for every contingency and dealing with it. His factory doesn’t shut down every time the French unions blockade Calais for a few weeks each summer, and it won’t be shutting down next April either.
And those logistics facilities will just bend over backwards to help the car manufacturers using all the masses of excess capacity (*) they have, and for free? At the very least, even if it is feasible operationally, it'll be one heck of an extra cost.
(*) Sarcasm alert.
in the scale of car manufacturing it isn't. They will have paid out more for petrol this year.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Does that help ?
It does not answer the question. I've worked extensively in Digital radio and TV (including working with big names, e.g. Sony, Philips, LG), yet I have very little idea how production broadcast systems work. I know (or at least knew) in-depth about a small area, and can make educated guesses about such broadcast systems in outline; but I have no 'knowledge' as such. And those guesses are only broad-brush and lack detail and finesse. And the devil is always in the detail.
Obviously that newly-invented flux capacitor is being put to good use by the site's Leavers today. Before the referendum they were aggressively claiming that a deal with the EU would be super-straightforward.
Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
Just to the left of that photo is a massive DHL logistics centre.
Swindon and the surrounding area is filled with logistics facilities, being as it is close to several major road and rail links. It’s also close to Lyneham and Brize Norton, which are covered in hangars that could be used for logistics if required.
It’s a silly idea that the logistics manager of Honda is just going to throw his hands up in the air and say he can’t deal with Brexit, like every other businessman he’ll be planning for every contingency and dealing with it. His factory doesn’t shut down every time the French unions blockade Calais for a few weeks each summer, and it won’t be shutting down next April either.
And those logistics facilities will just bend over backwards to help the car manufacturers using all the masses of excess capacity (*) they have, and for free? At the very least, even if it is feasible operationally, it'll be one heck of an extra cost.
(*) Sarcasm alert.
in the scale of car manufacturing it isn't. They will have paid out more for petrol this year.
Sorry, but that doesn't pass the sniff test. You have no way of knowing what it will cost, both directly and operationally.
In countries where land is freely available the economics of manufacturing are different.
Where is the UK is land "freely available" next to a car plant?
See the post below yours, Scott :-)
JIT is a marginal gain that can be unwound. That's not ideal, which is why nearly everybody would like a comprehensive FTA with the EU.
Indeed. But there’s no point arguing with those to seem to actively want a chaotic situation, purely so that they can be seen to be proved “right” over Brexit.
There is a difference between pointing out that we might be heading for a chaotic situation, and sleepwalking into one.
Don’t disagree. Which is why we should be planning to leave with no deal now - even if that is only a temporary state that allows us to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
I’ve said since the day after the referendum that the EU’s tactics were going to be to negotiate in bad faith and offer only a last-minute vassal state deal, then dare us to vote against it rather than leave without a deal. And so it has come to pass.
I’ve also said that I hope the adults in the room behind the scenes are getting on with things in a constructive manner, away from the public posturing on all sides.
Hey, I reluctantly said after Brexit that we should go for a friendly no-deal Brexit. Although my reasoning was that it would be because of the idiocy of the hardcore Brexiteers making a good deal impossible. I've also said that May should have treated Brexit as a minor issue, rather than shoving it front and centre and subsuming all other politics. Though again, Brexiteers such as JRM have not aided that.
And I believe I was right. It'd have been better if it had been done sooner, though.
Interesting that we reached the same conclusion from opposite sides.
IMO what’s preventing a sensible deal is those clinging on to membership of the key EU structures and rules, and with or without the general election it was always going to be exceedingly difficult to ratify any specific deal through Parliament.
What I really hadn’t expected was the number of people who would try to actually try and stop the process and prevent us leaving at all, although I’d expected a rejoin campaign to start up on the day we left.
I do find it rather optimistic to think that the public as a whole take that much interest in international trade and trade policy. I do believe there's a danger in assuming what a sub-group of people (eg highly politically interested people, like those here) are interested in is the same as what everyone is interested in.
If Brexit results in a reduction in immigration and fewer European rules and regulations that affect everyday life, it will be seen as providing what was voted for. If we don't see any explicit extra £350 million for the NHS from savings paid to the EU, that will be a mild annoyance to some, but seen as "typical bloody politicians, right?"
Customs Union, EEA membership (if the Article 112/113 emergency brake is imposed on Free Movement for a while), CETA, CETA+, EEA-, EFTA#, WTO++, Juche-, or whatever other acronym and adjustment is used won't matter and won't be spitting in the electorate's face.
Definitely nowhere at all in this picture that could be used as temporary storage if it were required, not at all...
Just to the left of that photo is a massive DHL logistics centre.
Swindon and the surrounding area is filled with logistics facilities, being as it is close to several major road and rail links. It’s also close to Lyneham and Brize Norton, which are covered in hangars that could be used for logistics if required.
It’s a silly idea that the logistics manager of Honda is just going to throw his hands up in the air and say he can’t deal with Brexit, like every other businessman he’ll be planning for every contingency and dealing with it. His factory doesn’t shut down every time the French unions blockade Calais for a few weeks each summer, and it won’t be shutting down next April either.
Car manufacturing works on "Just in time" - not near time. For example, car seats are delivered according to the order a couple of hours before it is fit in the ordered car.
They cut a fine line. Supply disruptions will increase time of delivery. Yes, warehouses can compensate but at a considerable cost.
Those warehouses you mention were not built to be empty. They are probably already filled to over 95% capacity. It is a cut-throat competition world now.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Does that help ?
It does not answer the question. I've worked extensively in Digital radio and TV (including working with big names, e.g. Sony, Philips, LG), yet I have very little idea how production broadcast systems work. I know (or at least knew) in-depth about a small area, and can make educated guesses about such broadcast systems in outline; but I have no 'knowledge' as such. And those guesses are only broad-brush and lack detail and finesse. And the devil is always in the detail.
yeah, now youre just getting silly. As I said earlier nobody has the knowledge you claim is essential. So if you want to claim you know more about vehicle production logistics chains go ahead.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Does that help ?
It does not answer the question. I've worked extensively in Digital radio and TV (including working with big names, e.g. Sony, Philips, LG), yet I have very little idea how production broadcast systems work. I know (or at least knew) in-depth about a small area, and can make educated guesses about such broadcast systems in outline; but I have no 'knowledge' as such. And those guesses are only broad-brush and lack detail and finesse. And the devil is always in the detail.
yeah, now youre just getting silly. As I said earlier nobody has the knowledge you claim is essential. So if you want to claim you know more about vehicle production logistics chains go ahead.
Honda's head of logistics does. If you have been a supplier you are slightly like a frog in a well, aren't you?
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one.
I'd argue that more significant debates (sometimes forgotten because the government won them, were:
- 1972 ECA. Heath won by only 309-301, with more than enough Labour rebels to make the difference. Had he lost, Britain's relation with Europe would have been very different. He also said in the House that defeat on that vote would have led to an immediate election.
- 1993 Maastricht confidence vote. Major could easily have lost. Had he done so, he'd have called an election and been badly defeated (though perhaps not *as* badly as in 1997). Smith would have become PM and then, probably, Brown, after Smith's death (choosing a PM is a different business from choosing a LotO 3 years out). Blairism would never have been a thing. The future of the Tories would also have been different, with either Heseltine or Clarke likely succeeding Major.
- 2003 Iraq vote. Although the government won it, it not only set a lasting parliamentary precedent but the nature of the debate has poisoned politics since for well over a decade. Had Blair lost, it would have brought him down and changed Britain's relationship with the Middle East and the world.
One that might be considered but which I'd exclude is:
- 1979 VoNC. There was an election due by that Autumn anyway, which the Tories would likely have won. The vote simply hastened that which would probably have still come about.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Does that help ?
It does not answer the question. I've worked extensively in Digital radio and TV (including working with big names, e.g. Sony, Philips, LG), yet I have very little idea how production broadcast systems work. I know (or at least knew) in-depth about a small area, and can make educated guesses about such broadcast systems in outline; but I have no 'knowledge' as such. And those guesses are only broad-brush and lack detail and finesse. And the devil is always in the detail.
To be fair Alanbrooke's CV looks far more than just 'worked in' It appears to relate directly to the supply logistics and distribution points which are being discussed here.
Looks like the UK economy and Eurozone economy are heading in opposite directions at the moment. Very poor data coming out of Euro countries and UK indicators all showing a limited or fair recovery.
I'm still of the opinion that the ONS are going to restate Q1 figures to at least 0.2% (0.3% is still what I have pencilled in) and growth in Q2 will be around 0.4%. Looking forwards I think Q3 is where we could see a reasonable acceleration, I've got 0.6% pencilled in for Q3 and 0.5-0.7% for Q4.
On the current Brexit discussion, @Sandpit and @archer101au are correct, the government should have been preparing and subsidising industry for a WTO terms exit. Before the vote I contributed to a report which outlined the following steps:
- WTO exit cost at around £10bn for industry, of which the government would have to provide at least half in subsidies and tax breaks. If they had started that the day after the vote then all of the storage warehouses, bonded areas and port facilities would be nearing completion.
- The government would also already have replicated swathes of EU regulations regarding air travel and be talking to the Americans about continuing in OpenSkies.
- They would have spent the last two years in the nations with whom we already have trade deals via the EU and got them to agree a 5-10 year roll over or extension pending a review for customisation instead of fannying about with Trump and Turnbull.
- Move access for EU governments/businesses to London's capital markets to third nation status, force them to either try and raise money under their own jurisdiction or in New York which would be at a much higher cost.
- Cut corporation tax to 15% to ensure the loyalty of big business in the face of possibly higher tariff costs for EU importation.
Our report was predicated on preparing for the worst case scenario wrt to EU trade (that no meaningful deal could be arranged in the short time period available under A50) and then negotiating a full free trade deal (which includes mutual standards recognition etc...) from the outside after both sides agree a very basic zero goods tariff arrangement (which massively favours the EU).
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Does that help ?
It does not answer the question. I've worked extensively in Digital radio and TV (including working with big names, e.g. Sony, Philips, LG), yet I have very little idea how production broadcast systems work. I know (or at least knew) in-depth about a small area, and can make educated guesses about such broadcast systems in outline; but I have no 'knowledge' as such. And those guesses are only broad-brush and lack detail and finesse. And the devil is always in the detail.
yeah, now youre just getting silly. As I said earlier nobody has the knowledge you claim is essential. So if you want to claim you know more about vehicle production logistics chains go ahead.
Honda's head of logistics does. If you have been a supplier you are slightly like a frog in a well, aren't you?
no he doesn't
the request was for someone who knows ALL car makers systems and their short term and long term issues. The guy in Honda will know Honda's issues. Today. The nature of the job is such that the problems change daily.
I now see your difficulty with comprehension starts with not being able to read
No Scott it's that Ive actually done a lot of automotive logistics in my full time job so I don't need to look up PR releases on the internet or convince myself to believe them.
You may have done a lot, but how much breadth do you have? Do you know everything about the supply chains of all the companies, short-lead and long-lead items?
nobody does.
So answer the first part of the question, as you are trying to speak from a position of authority. How much breadth of knowledge and experience into *their* systems and processes do you have?
If youre really that interested Ive worked in operations jobs in Czech Republic, France Germany and UK in various automotive suppliers and have been Tier one supplier to Skoda, PSA, Renault, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Daimler Truck, Daimler Car, VW, Opel, Ford, Toyota. Honda, JLR, Bentley, Aston Martin.
Does that help ?
It does not answer the question. I've worked extensively in Digital radio and TV (including working with big names, e.g. Sony, Philips, LG), yet I have very little idea how production broadcast systems work. I know (or at least knew) in-depth about a small area, and can make educated guesses about such broadcast systems in outline; but I have no 'knowledge' as such. And those guesses are only broad-brush and lack detail and finesse. And the devil is always in the detail.
To be fair Alanbrooke's CV looks far more than just 'worked in' It appears to relate directly to the supply logistics and distribution points which are being discussed here.
He will of course answer for himself but he could be King No.1 Total Boss indicator bulb supplier to all those companies and wouldn't necessarily know how the rest of the car is ordered and put together.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
What explains Theresa's precipitous fall from grace? I suspect the continuous low hum of criticism from the Brexit ultras has slowly eaten away at the members' minds. Worryingly for her, if the membership is showing signs of deep disillusionment, they might now turn on her in a jiffy at the tiniest hint of Brexit betrayal.
Honda's head of logistics does. If you have been a supplier you are slightly like a frog in a well, aren't you?
no he doesn't
the request was for someone who knows ALL car makers systems and their short term and long term issues. The guy in Honda will know Honda's issues. Today. The nature of the job is such that the problems change daily.
Isn't all this guff about warehouses missing the point? JIT is not about storage, but about *not* tying up gazillions of pounds in stored items on shelves.
By moving from (say) 3 days worth of stored stock to (say) 2 weeks, you need to spend a shit-load of money which you rather be using for something else.
[Disclosure: I worked for Airbus procurement for a while, and while storage space was not an issue at an airport, releasing £100's of millions of cash by going to JIT was a huge, huge win. Reversing it would be a huge, huge loss.]
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Minds being focussed as the chance of a contest this year increases?
I think Gove is rightly now the favourite, followed by Hunt and Javid as the three serious contenders for an imminent contest. This following a year and a half of laying favourites.
JRM is wishful thinking by a certain group of MPs and members (as was Boris before him), he’s got no ministerial experience which will all but disqualify him if the vacancy is for PM rather than LotO.
Adding to my previous post, we also said that the government would need to deliver some of the higher profile leave campaign promises such as the extra money for the NHS and introducing some kind of migration limitations to EU nationals.
Adding to my previous post, we also said that the government would need to deliver some of the higher profile leave campaign promises such as the extra money for the NHS and introducing some kind of migration limitations to EU nationals.
Your plan looks reasonable.
Sadly, the government flunked it. Time to flunk them, and cancel Brexit.
[Disclosure: I worked for Airbus procurement for a while, and while storage space was not an issue at an airport, releasing £100's of millions of cash by going to JIT was a huge, huge win. Reversing it would be a huge, huge loss.]
Looks like the UK economy and Eurozone economy are heading in opposite directions at the moment. Very poor data coming out of Euro countries and UK indicators all showing a limited or fair recovery.
I'm still of the opinion that the ONS areies.
- They would have spent the last two years in the nations with whom we already have trade deals via the EU and got them to agree a 5-10 year roll over or extension pending a review for customisation instead of fannying about with Trump and Turnbull.
- Move access for EU governments/businesses to London's capital markets to third nation status, force them to either try and raise money under their own jurisdiction or in New York which would be at a much higher cost.
- Cut corporation tax to 15% to ensure the loyalty of big business in the face of possibly higher tariff costs for EU importation.
Our report was predicated on preparing for the worst case scenario wrt to EU trade (that no meaningful deal could be arranged in the short time period available under A50) and then negotiating a full free trade deal (which includes mutual standards recognition etc...) from the outside after both sides agree a very basic zero goods tariff arrangement (which massively favours the EU).
Honda's head of logistics does. If you have been a supplier you are slightly like a frog in a well, aren't you?
no he doesn't
the request was for someone who knows ALL car makers systems and their short term and long term issues. The guy in Honda will know Honda's issues. Today. The nature of the job is such that the problems change daily.
Isn't all this guff about warehouses missing the point? JIT is not about storage, but about *not* tying up gazillions of pounds in stored items on shelves.
By moving from (say) 3 days worth of stored stock to (say) 2 weeks, you need to spend a shit-load of money which you rather be using for something else.
[Disclosure: I worked for Airbus procurement for a while, and while storage space was not an issue at an airport, releasing £100's of millions of cash by going to JIT was a huge, huge win. Reversing it would be a huge, huge loss.]
Exactly - the working capital funding will likely not bring down the company (although not being Honda's head of procurement I wouldn't know) but will be a greater expense.
Although if ever there's going to be a reason cited, whether justified or not, for price rises on anything or everything next year, then "because of Brexit" will be it.
Honda's head of logistics does. If you have been a supplier you are slightly like a frog in a well, aren't you?
no he doesn't
the request was for someone who knows ALL car makers systems and their short term and long term issues. The guy in Honda will know Honda's issues. Today. The nature of the job is such that the problems change daily.
Isn't all this guff about warehouses missing the point? JIT is not about storage, but about *not* tying up gazillions of pounds in stored items on shelves.
By moving from (say) 3 days worth of stored stock to (say) 2 weeks, you need to spend a shit-load of money which you rather be using for something else.
[Disclosure: I worked for Airbus procurement for a while, and while storage space was not an issue at an airport, releasing £100's of millions of cash by going to JIT was a huge, huge win. Reversing it would be a huge, huge loss.]
yes JIT is about minimising stocks, but it can't be viewed in isolation. If interest rates are at an all time low then the cost of borrowing may not be your highest cost, transport or batch size could be. There is no set answer each company has to decide for itself the balance and trade offs. The answer to some JIT problems long term might just be to re-shore more products.
The Conservatives would do well to choose a leader who drives their opponents mad for non-Brexit reasons. Jeremy Hunt and Esther McVey are the obvious options.
Honda's head of logistics does. If you have been a supplier you are slightly like a frog in a well, aren't you?
no he doesn't
the request was for someone who knows ALL car makers systems and their short term and long term issues. The guy in Honda will know Honda's issues. Today. The nature of the job is such that the problems change daily.
Isn't all this guff about warehouses missing the point? JIT is not about storage, but about *not* tying up gazillions of pounds in stored items on shelves.
By moving from (say) 3 days worth of stored stock to (say) 2 weeks, you need to spend a shit-load of money which you rather be using for something else.
[Disclosure: I worked for Airbus procurement for a while, and while storage space was not an issue at an airport, releasing £100's of millions of cash by going to JIT was a huge, huge win. Reversing it would be a huge, huge loss.]
Agree with this, I think businesses would have been able to handle extending storage to up to a week worth of inventory, any longer and it becomes economically questionable to have that much inventory sitting in storage. One of the reasons our report said the government would need to subsidise it is because it would likely be a temporary issue, once a comprehensive trade deal is agreed I expect certain industries to have customs pre-clearance (automotive, aeronautic etc...) just as they do for the US/Canada border and on the Swiss border.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Minds being focussed as the chance of a contest this year increases?
I think Gove is rightly now the favourite, followed by Hunt and Javid as the three serious contenders for an imminent contest. This following a year and a half of laying favourites.
JRM is wishful thinking by a certain group of MPs and members (as was Boris before him), he’s got no ministerial experience which will all but disqualify him if the vacancy is for PM rather than LotO.
I agree. I do wonder whether Gove would really be keen for the top job; he's really more suited to being a Number Two. A Javid-Gove team would, however, be incredibly strong.
I'm not sure about Hunt in current circumstances. He'd be a good unity candidate but I don't think a unity candidate is viable before March 2019: the Brexit divisions are too wide to try to span the gaps, which is where May has come unstuck (not helped by her natural vacillation and bunker-mentality).
Adding to my previous post, we also said that the government would need to deliver some of the higher profile leave campaign promises such as the extra money for the NHS and introducing some kind of migration limitations to EU nationals.
Your plan looks reasonable.
Sadly, the government flunked it. Time to flunk them, and cancel Brexit.
Looks like the UK economy and Eurozone economy are heading in opposite directions at the moment. Very poor data coming out of Euro countries and UK indicators all showing a limited or fair recovery.
I'm still of the opinion that the ONS areies.
- They would have spent the last two years in the nations with whom we already have trade deals via the EU and got them to agree a 5-10 year roll over or extension pending a review for customisation instead of fannying about with Trump and Turnbull.
- Move access for EU governments/businesses to London's capital markets to third nation status, force them to either try and raise money under their own jurisdiction or in New York which would be at a much higher cost.
- Cut corporation tax to 15% to ensure the loyalty of big business in the face of possibly higher tariff costs for EU importation.
Our report was predicated on preparing for the worst case scenario wrt to EU trade (that no meaningful deal could be arranged in the short time period available under A50) and then negotiating a full free trade deal (which includes mutual standards recognition etc...) from the outside after both sides agree a very basic zero goods tariff arrangement (which massively favours the EU).
Or to paraphrase: we shouldn't
That was not in the control of the City or the government. The people voted to leave. It is up to the government to deliver that, they have done a shockingly poor job.
You'll be interested to know I have a job offer from a Japanese bank, it comes with a promise that the role will not be moving to any European city!
The Conservatives would do well to choose a leader who drives their opponents mad for non-Brexit reasons. Jeremy Hunt and Esther McVey are the obvious options.
A Tory leader who will get lefties and moderates rallying to the Labour flag is exactly what I'm hoping for.
Adding to my previous post, we also said that the government would need to deliver some of the higher profile leave campaign promises such as the extra money for the NHS and introducing some kind of migration limitations to EU nationals.
Your plan looks reasonable.
Sadly, the government flunked it. Time to flunk them, and cancel Brexit.
Or just replace them with people able to deliver it. Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor would probably deliver something reasonable.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Minds being focussed as the chance of a contest this year increases?
I think Gove is rightly now the favourite, followed by Hunt and Javid as the three serious contenders for an imminent contest. This following a year and a half of laying favourites.
JRM is wishful thinking by a certain group of MPs and members (as was Boris before him), he’s got no ministerial experience which will all but disqualify him if the vacancy is for PM rather than LotO.
I agree. I do wonder whether Gove would really be keen for the top job; he's really more suited to being a Number Two. A Javid-Gove team would, however, be incredibly strong.
I'm not sure about Hunt in current circumstances. He'd be a good unity candidate but I don't think a unity candidate is viable before March 2019: the Brexit divisions are too wide to try to span the gaps, which is where May has come unstuck (not helped by her natural vacillation and bunker-mentality).
Agree with that a Javid/Gove ticket for PM/Chancellor would be ideal.
The Conservatives would do well to choose a leader who drives their opponents mad for non-Brexit reasons. Jeremy Hunt and Esther McVey are the obvious options.
A Tory leader who will get lefties and moderates rallying to the Labour flag is exactly what I'm hoping for.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
It could see a change in Prime Minister.
If she accepts the will of the Commons the ERG are going to try and topple her.
Kind of On topic for this mornings discussion but OT as far as the EU debate goes.
Last year I did the Stanford course on Nuclear Terrorism which was run by Former Secretary of Defence William Perry. What was fascinating is how critical he and his associates were of the JIT concept in terms of its vulnerability to terrorism and how bad things are going to turn out to be for the US and the rest of the first world when an incident happens. They were pointing out that it is currently absolutely impossible to monitor and control these systems in terms of security and that the idea that the US currently has border security which could pick up, for example, the components of a smuggled nuclear device including the fissile material is a complete illusion.
His nightmare scenario, which he thinks is very likely to happen, is an attempt to detonate a device in one of the US (or European/Asian) ports. Even if the damage was negligible the effect on world trade would be catastrophic and the experts he was talking to estimated that within 48 hours of such an incident all world trade would effectively cease due to security logjams at ports.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
The government has a big decision to take in the event of a defeat. Is it simply going to ignore the vote? Or is it going to take it as a negotiating instruction? Either approach is going to lead to pandemonium.
And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
That doesn't matter for my purposes.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
Minds being focussed as the chance of a contest this year increases?
I think Gove is rightly now the favourite, followed by Hunt and Javid as the three serious contenders for an imminent contest. This following a year and a half of laying favourites.
JRM is wishful thinking by a certain group of MPs and members (as was Boris before him), he’s got no ministerial experience which will all but disqualify him if the vacancy is for PM rather than LotO.
I agree. I do wonder whether Gove would really be keen for the top job; he's really more suited to being a Number Two. A Javid-Gove team would, however, be incredibly strong.
I'm not sure about Hunt in current circumstances. He'd be a good unity candidate but I don't think a unity candidate is viable before March 2019: the Brexit divisions are too wide to try to span the gaps, which is where May has come unstuck (not helped by her natural vacillation and bunker-mentality).
Do you think Gove might reluctantly allow himself to be dragged through the door of No.10 agreeing to be a caretaker for a year to sort out Brexit, followed by a summer ‘19 contest and a general election?
To continue Alastair’s analogy, Javid as a Conservative PM would also drive the fans of identity politics nuts.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
It could see a change in Prime Minister.
If she accepts the will of the Commons the ERG are going to try and topple her.
Not being funny but surely if Richard is right she can easily produce such a report which says 'we are not taking any steps to stay in the Customs Union'. That would fulfil the requirements of the vote.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
It could see a change in Prime Minister.
If she accepts the will of the Commons the ERG are going to try and topple her.
If we assume the amendment passes, by far the most likely scenario would be that she accepts the will of the Commons in the literal sense of doing what the amendment requires (reporting to parliament), but no more than that. The ERG would be happy with that.
Mr. Slackbladder, interesting suggestion. Another way of expressing that would be to say that Cabinet/departmental experience is harmful, no?
The second king of Rome was Numa. He wasn't even in Rome. They had to go send some people to tell him and ask him to visit the city. Maybe left-field choices with limited experience (see also Julian the Apostate) can work well.
As an aside, that reminds me of Emperor Anastasius. He had no son, but three nephews. So, he decided to invite them over to join him for a meal. Under a pillow on one of the three empty couches he placed a piece of paper with the word 'emperor' written on it. Whoever opted for said couch would be named his heir.
Unfortunately two of his nephews were rather friendlier with one another than he imagined. They opted to share a couch, and the imperial one was left empty.
Looks like the UK economy and Eurozone economy are heading in opposite directions at the moment. Very poor data coming out of Euro countries and UK indicators all showing a limited or fair recovery.
I'm still of the opinion that the ONS areies.
- They would have spent the last two years in the nations with whom we already have trade deals via the EU and got them to agree a 5-10 year roll over or extension pending a review for customisation instead of fannying about with Trump and Turnbull.
- Move access for EU governments/businesses to London's capital markets to third nation status, force them to either try and raise money under their own jurisdiction or in New York which would be at a much higher cost.
- Cut corporation tax to 15% to ensure the loyalty of big business in the face of possibly higher tariff costs for EU importation.
Our report was predicated on preparing for the worst case scenario wrt to EU trade (that no meaningful deal could be arranged in the short time period available under A50) and then negotiating a full free trade deal (which includes mutual standards recognition etc...) from the outside after both sides agree a very basic zero goods tariff arrangement (which massively favours the EU).
Or to paraphrase: we shouldn't
That was not in the control of the City or the government. The people voted to leave. It is up to the government to deliver that, they have done a shockingly poor job.
You'll be interested to know I have a job offer from a Japanese bank, it comes with a promise that the role will not be moving to any European city!
Congrats! You decided against Macquarie, then - just be aware that when you are filling in some of the registration forms that ask "has your employer ever been sanctioned...."
Mr. Max, reminds me of tweets whereby very small children make worldly remarks that happen to entirely coincide with the view of the individual writing the tweet...
Serious question...I was reading the other day that reddit is now one of the world most visited websites / platforms (claims that even more than Facebook in the US *)...I don't get it, it is a total omnishambles of a platform.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Tracey Ullman’s writing room are sharpening their pencils...
Going to be hiliarous to see them all shouting to empty crowds. I hope it's on video so I can get a good laugh at the crusties, and Owen Jones.
Just looked at the musical lineup - never heard of any of them. Back in Kinnock's day Labour could rely on a veritable Who's Who of British pop:
Red Wedge organised a number of major tours. The first, in January and February 1986, featured Bragg, Weller's band The Style Council, The Communards, Junior Giscombe, Lorna Gee and Jerry Dammers, and picked up guest appearances from Madness, The The, Heaven 17, Bananarama, Prefab Sprout, Elvis Costello, Gary Kemp, Tom Robinson, Sade, The Beat, Lloyd Cole, The Blow Monkeys, Joolz and The Smiths.
If they’ve only sold 3k tickets for a 20k capacity venue, they really should just bin the event and cut their losses, before they start needing to pay for security and staging.
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people and give ammunition to their political opponents.
Not unpaid staff...happy volunteers....who / why anybody would volunteer to run a bar at a paid event that isn't sold out is beyond me.
AfD now on 16% in latest german poll, that's just 1 point behind the SPD who have dropped to 17%. Rise in support related to immigration scandal though oddly Merkel not taking the hit ( CDU\CSU still on 32% )
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one ....
Not even that. Contrary to popular belief, there is no amendment which would require that we should stay in a customs union. There is an amendment which if passed would require the government to report to parliament on the steps which it has taken in regard to a customs union.
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
The government has a big decision to take in the event of a defeat. Is it simply going to ignore the vote? Or is it going to take it as a negotiating instruction? Either approach is going to lead to pandemonium.
I think they will ignore it (in terms of substance).
Tracey Ullman’s writing room are sharpening their pencils...
Going to be hiliarous to see them all shouting to empty crowds. I hope it's on video so I can get a good laugh at the crusties, and Owen Jones.
Just looked at the musical lineup - never heard of any of them. Back in Kinnock's day Labour could rely on a veritable Who's Who of British pop:
Red Wedge organised a number of major tours. The first, in January and February 1986, featured Bragg, Weller's band The Style Council, The Communards, Junior Giscombe, Lorna Gee and Jerry Dammers, and picked up guest appearances from Madness, The The, Heaven 17, Bananarama, Prefab Sprout, Elvis Costello, Gary Kemp, Tom Robinson, Sade, The Beat, Lloyd Cole, The Blow Monkeys, Joolz and The Smiths.
The line-up was definitely not booked by any down wit da kidz types, more some middle aged Guardian reader who think they know music. The Magic Numbers haven't had a hit for 10 years and I doubt any student types have heard of them and certainly not what mainstream kidz listen to these days.
Comments
If you want to store parts inside, and particularly if you want to store them in climate-controlled conditions where they can be accessed automagically by robots, then you need to get planning and build the warehousing. Temporary storage in trailers is probably unworkable. Building warehousing will take a year or two with planning considerations.
(PS Maybe we could give RBS to the EU to settle half what we have committed to pay them
I’ve said since the day after the referendum that the EU’s tactics were going to be to negotiate in bad faith and offer only a last-minute vassal state deal, then dare us to vote against it rather than leave without a deal. And so it has come to pass.
I’ve also said that I hope the adults in the room behind the scenes are getting on with things in a constructive manner, away from the public posturing on all sides.
And I believe I was right. It'd have been better if it had been done sooner, though.
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-physicists-flux-capacitor-time-reversal-symmetry.html
Sadly time travel not yet enabled....
Imagine how screwed up things would become if we actually invented it.
It’s a silly idea that the logistics manager of Honda is just going to throw his hands up in the air and say he can’t deal with Brexit, like every other businessman he’ll be planning for every contingency and dealing with it. His factory doesn’t shut down every time the French unions blockade Calais for a few weeks each summer, and it won’t be shutting down next April either.
Does that help ?
(*) Sarcasm alert.
IMO what’s preventing a sensible deal is those clinging on to membership of the key EU structures and rules, and with or without the general election it was always going to be exceedingly difficult to ratify any specific deal through Parliament.
What I really hadn’t expected was the number of people who would try to actually try and stop the process and prevent us leaving at all, although I’d expected a rejoin campaign to start up on the day we left.
Javid was very good on Marr this week I thought.
If Brexit results in a reduction in immigration and fewer European rules and regulations that affect everyday life, it will be seen as providing what was voted for. If we don't see any explicit extra £350 million for the NHS from savings paid to the EU, that will be a mild annoyance to some, but seen as "typical bloody politicians, right?"
Customs Union, EEA membership (if the Article 112/113 emergency brake is imposed on Free Movement for a while), CETA, CETA+, EEA-, EFTA#, WTO++, Juche-, or whatever other acronym and adjustment is used won't matter and won't be spitting in the electorate's face.
They cut a fine line. Supply disruptions will increase time of delivery. Yes, warehouses can compensate but at a considerable cost.
Those warehouses you mention were not built to be empty. They are probably already filled to over 95% capacity. It is a cut-throat competition world now.
I’m sticking with my observation that these votes will be the most important votes the Commons has seen since the Norway debate.
TSE
Disagree. The Customs Union vote is important but unless it leads fairly directly to Corbyn becoming PM, it will just define one detail of Brexit, even if an important one.
I'd argue that more significant debates (sometimes forgotten because the government won them, were:
- 1972 ECA. Heath won by only 309-301, with more than enough Labour rebels to make the difference. Had he lost, Britain's relation with Europe would have been very different. He also said in the House that defeat on that vote would have led to an immediate election.
- 1993 Maastricht confidence vote. Major could easily have lost. Had he done so, he'd have called an election and been badly defeated (though perhaps not *as* badly as in 1997). Smith would have become PM and then, probably, Brown, after Smith's death (choosing a PM is a different business from choosing a LotO 3 years out). Blairism would never have been a thing. The future of the Tories would also have been different, with either Heseltine or Clarke likely succeeding Major.
- 2003 Iraq vote. Although the government won it, it not only set a lasting parliamentary precedent but the nature of the debate has poisoned politics since for well over a decade. Had Blair lost, it would have brought him down and changed Britain's relationship with the Middle East and the world.
One that might be considered but which I'd exclude is:
- 1979 VoNC. There was an election due by that Autumn anyway, which the Tories would likely have won. The vote simply hastened that which would probably have still come about.
I'm still of the opinion that the ONS are going to restate Q1 figures to at least 0.2% (0.3% is still what I have pencilled in) and growth in Q2 will be around 0.4%. Looking forwards I think Q3 is where we could see a reasonable acceleration, I've got 0.6% pencilled in for Q3 and 0.5-0.7% for Q4.
On the current Brexit discussion, @Sandpit and @archer101au are correct, the government should have been preparing and subsidising industry for a WTO terms exit. Before the vote I contributed to a report which outlined the following steps:
- WTO exit cost at around £10bn for industry, of which the government would have to provide at least half in subsidies and tax breaks. If they had started that the day after the vote then all of the storage warehouses, bonded areas and port facilities would be nearing completion.
- The government would also already have replicated swathes of EU regulations regarding air travel and be talking to the Americans about continuing in OpenSkies.
- They would have spent the last two years in the nations with whom we already have trade deals via the EU and got them to agree a 5-10 year roll over or extension pending a review for customisation instead of fannying about with Trump and Turnbull.
- Move access for EU governments/businesses to London's capital markets to third nation status, force them to either try and raise money under their own jurisdiction or in New York which would be at a much higher cost.
- Cut corporation tax to 15% to ensure the loyalty of big business in the face of possibly higher tariff costs for EU importation.
Our report was predicated on preparing for the worst case scenario wrt to EU trade (that no meaningful deal could be arranged in the short time period available under A50) and then negotiating a full free trade deal (which includes mutual standards recognition etc...) from the outside after both sides agree a very basic zero goods tariff arrangement (which massively favours the EU).
TSE won't be happy.
the request was for someone who knows ALL car makers systems and their short term and long term issues. The guy in Honda will know Honda's issues. Today. The nature of the job is such that the problems change daily.
I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
By moving from (say) 3 days worth of stored stock to (say) 2 weeks, you need to spend a shit-load of money which you rather be using for something else.
[Disclosure: I worked for Airbus procurement for a while, and while storage space was not an issue at an airport, releasing £100's of millions of cash by going to JIT was a huge, huge win. Reversing it would be a huge, huge loss.]
I think Gove is rightly now the favourite, followed by Hunt and Javid as the three serious contenders for an imminent contest. This following a year and a half of laying favourites.
JRM is wishful thinking by a certain group of MPs and members (as was Boris before him), he’s got no ministerial experience which will all but disqualify him if the vacancy is for PM rather than LotO.
Sadly, the government flunked it.
Time to flunk them, and cancel Brexit.
Although if ever there's going to be a reason cited, whether justified or not, for price rises on anything or everything next year, then "because of Brexit" will be it.
I'm not sure about Hunt in current circumstances. He'd be a good unity candidate but I don't think a unity candidate is viable before March 2019: the Brexit divisions are too wide to try to span the gaps, which is where May has come unstuck (not helped by her natural vacillation and bunker-mentality).
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
You'll be interested to know I have a job offer from a Japanese bank, it comes with a promise that the role will not be moving to any European city!
So a defeat would be a huge embarrassment, but wouldn't in itself have the effect of keeping the UK in a customs union.
If she accepts the will of the Commons the ERG are going to try and topple her.
Last year I did the Stanford course on Nuclear Terrorism which was run by Former Secretary of Defence William Perry. What was fascinating is how critical he and his associates were of the JIT concept in terms of its vulnerability to terrorism and how bad things are going to turn out to be for the US and the rest of the first world when an incident happens. They were pointing out that it is currently absolutely impossible to monitor and control these systems in terms of security and that the idea that the US currently has border security which could pick up, for example, the components of a smuggled nuclear device including the fissile material is a complete illusion.
His nightmare scenario, which he thinks is very likely to happen, is an attempt to detonate a device in one of the US (or European/Asian) ports. Even if the damage was negligible the effect on world trade would be catastrophic and the experts he was talking to estimated that within 48 hours of such an incident all world trade would effectively cease due to security logjams at ports.
To continue Alastair’s analogy, Javid as a Conservative PM would also drive the fans of identity politics nuts.
The second king of Rome was Numa. He wasn't even in Rome. They had to go send some people to tell him and ask him to visit the city. Maybe left-field choices with limited experience (see also Julian the Apostate) can work well.
As an aside, that reminds me of Emperor Anastasius. He had no son, but three nephews. So, he decided to invite them over to join him for a meal. Under a pillow on one of the three empty couches he placed a piece of paper with the word 'emperor' written on it. Whoever opted for said couch would be named his heir.
Unfortunately two of his nephews were rather friendlier with one another than he imagined. They opted to share a couch, and the imperial one was left empty.
https://medium.com/techbuzz/reddit-surpasses-facebook-to-become-second-most-visited-site-in-u-s-30de385e199f
Trying to fill the place with free tickets and coaches, so people can buy expensive drinks from the unpaid bar staff, is going to do nothing but annoy people who paid for tickets and give ammunition to Corbyn’s political opponents - and comedians.
Red Wedge organised a number of major tours. The first, in January and February 1986, featured Bragg, Weller's band The Style Council, The Communards, Junior Giscombe, Lorna Gee and Jerry Dammers, and picked up guest appearances from Madness, The The, Heaven 17, Bananarama, Prefab Sprout, Elvis Costello, Gary Kemp, Tom Robinson, Sade, The Beat, Lloyd Cole, The Blow Monkeys, Joolz and The Smiths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Wedge
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article176987834/Insa-Umfrage-16-Prozent-AfD-erreicht-Drei-Monats-Hoch.html