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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May needs to use the Fallon vacancy to bring in new talent

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,799
    edited November 2017
    TonyE said:

    Russia is using our freedoms against us.

    There is no doubt in my mind that they interfered in both Scottish Independence and Brexit referenda. Unsuccessfully in the first instance...
    I think this might be a stretch. If there's an opportunity to stir up a bit of trouble I'm sure that Russia does take advantage. But there is only opportunity for this when there is a clear wedge already opening up the space.

    So in Brexit terms, Russia might have desired the result, but any interference could only have effect if they were pushing at an open door, and therefore it is very difficult to judge how much influence that interference might have had.
    I believe you're right. Russian spooks are likely the same self-serving, pointless-target-driven make-works that you see in the west. I think Russia did "win it" for Trump in the sense that Clinton probably would have won if it weren't for Russian interference and the Trump team's collusion with it. I don't think the Russians tipped the Brexit vote, although it would be better if they were not involved.

    Edit. The other interesting point now is that Brexit very much aligns with Russia's goals of destroying the EU, weakening the Western Alliance and undermining liberal democracy.
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    I’m sure this story will get an airing if Rory gets Defence.

    When Prof Noah Coburn volunteered to work in war-torn Afghanistan for the charity established by Rory Stewart and the Prince of Wales, his wife, Shoshana, agreed to go with him.

    She promised her parents that she would stay for no more than nine months. Little did Prof Coburn know, however, that the couple’s marriage would founder and that his wife would end up being charmed by Stewart, who is now a prominent Tory MP.

    “Noah was absolutely devastated when his marriage broke down,” a friend of the eminent American anthropologist tells Mandrake. “He loved Shoshana very dearly.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html

    Meh... Life happens. Not much there.
    I know but the media love stuff like this.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    edited November 2017

    I’m sure this story will get an airing if Rory gets Defence.

    When Prof Noah Coburn volunteered to work in war-torn Afghanistan for the charity established by Rory Stewart and the Prince of Wales, his wife, Shoshana, agreed to go with him.

    She promised her parents that she would stay for no more than nine months. Little did Prof Coburn know, however, that the couple’s marriage would founder and that his wife would end up being charmed by Stewart, who is now a prominent Tory MP.

    “Noah was absolutely devastated when his marriage broke down,” a friend of the eminent American anthropologist tells Mandrake. “He loved Shoshana very dearly.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html

    Both she and Stewart, who was once imprisoned by the Taliban, decline to comment. However, a mutual friend insists that their romantic relationship did not begin until she had separated from her husband.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-tory-toff-set-to-tie-1405678
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950

    I’m sure this story will get an airing if Rory gets Defence.

    When Prof Noah Coburn volunteered to work in war-torn Afghanistan for the charity established by Rory Stewart and the Prince of Wales, his wife, Shoshana, agreed to go with him.

    She promised her parents that she would stay for no more than nine months. Little did Prof Coburn know, however, that the couple’s marriage would founder and that his wife would end up being charmed by Stewart, who is now a prominent Tory MP.

    “Noah was absolutely devastated when his marriage broke down,” a friend of the eminent American anthropologist tells Mandrake. “He loved Shoshana very dearly.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html

    Really? It is just David Cameron and Jacob Rees-Mogg isn’t it, and every other damn MP has some sexual shenanigans in their history?
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    ‪Can’t imagine why. ‬

    European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote


    Nursing and Midwifery Council says NHS faces staffing shortfall due to ‘double whammy’ of European and UK-trained medics leaving

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nurses-midwives-leaving-uk-nhs-brexit-vote
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    woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    I think it will be IDS. A clean appointment and no one's nose gets put out of joint.
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    Stewart would be a, er, brave choice to replace Fallon, that's for sure.
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    This may be significant:
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/925682313190625280

    Starmer gets impact reports published. Whips up storm about the negative impact. Calls for another referendum. Numbers in Parliament back it.

    Then we either stay acrimoniously or leave acrimoniously.

    Or, Starmer may simply try and get Parliament to overrule the referendum result. The succeeding General Election then becomes dominated by the EU. (And we either stay or leave acrimoniously).
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    Where George leads, others follow.

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/926014412548427777
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    Sean_F said:

    It was the Coalition that rather fossilised the cabinet and stopped new talent coming through.

    That Coalition does increasingly look like a golden era of good government.

    In other news NZ is planning to tackle its housing and infrastructure challenge via importing British construction workers. Not sure how this fits with clamping down on migration. I expect a similar drive here would be the same but an order of magnitude bigger.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/02/new-zealand-launches-biggest-ever-drive-to-attract-brexit-britains-builders

    Haven't we been told that British construction workers are expensive, unskilled, lazy and in insufficient numbers ?

    As to the coalition - hundreds of billions of extra borrowing, stagnant productivity and wages, continuous trade deficits, Middle Eastern warmongering, uncontrolled immigration, triple lock pensions, unafforadable housing, student debts, EU humiliations, Scottish nationalism rampant, vanity projects and plenty more I've temporarily forgotten.

    There's not much good government there.
    Construction has been the real star of the economy since 2013, with output up 27%.

    I think the government's economic record has been better than you describe. The budget deficit has gone from 11% of GDP to 2%, while unemployment has halved.
    You wouldn’t think there was a problem with construction of new homes round here. Colchester, Chelmsford have enormous new estates, and more are planned.
    It is baffling.

    Everyone says there are lots of new houses being built near them and the ONS data says that new house building is the highest on records dating back to 1997.

    Yet we're told that house construction is low and in much of the country housing is completely unaffordable on local wages.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    FPT

    I just heard on radio that Priti Patel was a likely replacement. Her credentials being that she's a SHE and unlikely to have brushed anyone's knee with her hand.

    Having a pro hanging defence secretary who believes the odd mistake isn't a problem should add to the gaiety of this government.

    Time for Mrs Corbyn to get her Littlewoods catalogue out.

    A majority of the country supports the death penalty for murder
    A majority of the country also supports renationalising the railways.

    Doesn’t mean they are right.
    No it does not but Corbyn clearly won votes on renationalising the railways and there is no necessary reason why Patel supporting the death penalty should lose her votes, indeed she may even gain some.
    I think it’s an issue unlikely to be decisive in many people’s decision, not least since there are no plans to reintroduce the death penalty. Now if she became leader and advocated a change, we’d find out if it’d help or hinder - as you point out, most say they support it.
    I expect there would be significant support for a policy supporting the death penalty for terrorists and serial killers.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    woody662 said:

    I think it will be IDS. A clean appointment and no one's nose gets put out of joint.

    That’s not a bad call. He’s senior enough for the job and appointing him is a stand-alone task.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170

    This may be significant:
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/925682313190625280

    Starmer gets impact reports published. Whips up storm about the negative impact. Calls for another referendum. Numbers in Parliament back it.

    Then we either stay acrimoniously or leave acrimoniously.

    Or, Starmer may simply try and get Parliament to overrule the referendum result. The succeeding General Election then becomes dominated by the EU. (And we either stay or leave acrimoniously).

    Corbyn won't reverse Brexit though he would back a longer transition period than the Tories.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,799
    Nigelb said:

    It was the Coalition that rather fossilised the cabinet and stopped new talent coming through.

    That Coalition does increasingly look like a golden era of good government.

    In other news NZ is planning to tackle its housing and infrastructure challenge via importing British construction workers. Not sure how this fits with clamping down on migration. I expect a similar drive here would be the same but an order of magnitude bigger...

    Except Hammond/May are apparently very hesitant about a large house building program as they don't want to mess up the borrowing figures.

    Which is crazy, as it would be one form of government investment almost guaranteed to generate a long term real return at current interest rates.

    (edit - and would leave less borrowing headroom for any future Corbyn administration to borrow for less productive forms pf spending...)
    It has been the unshakable tenet of all governments since Thatcher's that rising property prices are good, politically and for the immediate term boost in the economy, if not for a stable and balanced one. If the government undertakes a big housebuilding programme just as property prices turn and we start seeing long term negative equity, that will drive a coach and horses through that tenet.

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    ‪Can’t imagine why.

    English language testing?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    edited November 2017

    ‪Can’t imagine why. ‬

    European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote


    Nursing and Midwifery Council says NHS faces staffing shortfall due to ‘double whammy’ of European and UK-trained medics leaving

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nurses-midwives-leaving-uk-nhs-brexit-vote

    5% of UK nurses are from the EU and numbers of nurses from outside the EU are still rising.

    Plus the government is expanding training places for British nurses.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,985

    Sean_F said:

    It was the Coalition that rather fossilised the cabinet and stopped new talent coming through.

    That Coalition does increasingly look like a golden era of good government.

    In other news NZ is planning to tackle its housing and infrastructure challenge via importing British construction workers. Not sure how this fits with clamping down on migration. I expect a similar drive here would be the same but an order of magnitude bigger.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/02/new-zealand-launches-biggest-ever-drive-to-attract-brexit-britains-builders

    Haven't we been told that British construction workers are expensive, unskilled, lazy and in insufficient numbers ?

    As to the coalition - hundreds of billions of extra borrowing, stagnant productivity and wages, continuous trade deficits, Middle Eastern warmongering, uncontrolled immigration, triple lock pensions, unafforadable housing, student debts, EU humiliations, Scottish nationalism rampant, vanity projects and plenty more I've temporarily forgotten.

    There's not much good government there.
    Construction has been the real star of the economy since 2013, with output up 27%.

    I think the government's economic record has been better than you describe. The budget deficit has gone from 11% of GDP to 2%, while unemployment has halved.
    You wouldn’t think there was a problem with construction of new homes round here. Colchester, Chelmsford have enormous new estates, and more are planned.
    It is baffling.

    Everyone says there are lots of new houses being built near them and the ONS data says that new house building is the highest on records dating back to 1997.

    Yet we're told that house construction is low and in much of the country housing is completely unaffordable on local wages.
    House prices rocketed from 1997-2007, but haven't risen by all that much since then, London excepted.
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    Mr. HYUFD, from Opposition, Corbyn would back such a move. That's my feeling, anyway.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    brendan16 said:

    Nigelb said:

    It was the Coalition that rather fossilised the cabinet and stopped new talent coming through.

    That Coalition does increasingly look like a golden era of good government.

    In other news NZ is planning to tackle its housing and infrastructure challenge via importing British construction workers. Not sure how this fits with clamping down on migration. I expect a similar drive here would be the same but an order of magnitude bigger...

    Except Hammond/May are apparently very hesitant about a large house building program as they don't want to mess up the borrowing figures.

    Which is crazy, as it would be one form of government investment almost guaranteed to generate a long term real return at current interest rates.

    (edit - and would leave less borrowing headroom for any future Corbyn administration to borrow for less productive forms pf spending...)
    £25 billion a year being effectively thrown away on housing benefit should be the reason we do the borrowing - because in the long term it should cut the HB bill. Otherwise that is just going to go up and up as more people rent - particularly in the future in retirement which is another ticking time bomb. And of course those renting in retirement will have no assets to fund their social care either.

    Of course Hammond made his money in property and buy to let - so maybe from a purely personal perspective he doesn't want more supply?
    Plus assets to pass onto their children and grandchildren
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    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170

    Mr. HYUFD, from Opposition, Corbyn would back such a move. That's my feeling, anyway.

    No as he wants to keep the 35% of Labour voters who voted Leave on board
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    I wonder if the Boris 'Minister to Watch' was a little barbed:

    Speccie Awards:
    Speech of the Year – Kemi Badenoch
    Backbencher of the Year – Stella Creasy
    Comeback of the Year – Sir Vince Cable
    Peer of the Year – Lord Adonis
    Minister to watch – Boris Johnson
    Rising Star – Angela Rayner
    Insurgent of the Year – Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Negotiator of the Year – Nigel Dodds
    Politician of the Year – Jeremy Corbyn
    Parliamentarian of the Year – Ruth Davidson

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/01/speccie-awards-winners
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    woody662 said:

    I think it will be IDS. A clean appointment and no one's nose gets put out of joint.

    Interesting. Ex-Jock Guard. Slight shuffling of the deckchairs but as I said inevitable given the likely Cabinet/SoS provenance of whoever it is.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,083

    I’m sure this story will get an airing if Rory gets Defence.

    When Prof Noah Coburn volunteered to work in war-torn Afghanistan for the charity established by Rory Stewart and the Prince of Wales, his wife, Shoshana, agreed to go with him.

    She promised her parents that she would stay for no more than nine months. Little did Prof Coburn know, however, that the couple’s marriage would founder and that his wife would end up being charmed by Stewart, who is now a prominent Tory MP.

    “Noah was absolutely devastated when his marriage broke down,” a friend of the eminent American anthropologist tells Mandrake. “He loved Shoshana very dearly.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html

    Both she and Stewart, who was once imprisoned by the Taliban, decline to comment. However, a mutual friend insists that their romantic relationship did not begin until she had separated from her husband.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-tory-toff-set-to-tie-1405678
    And they married five years ago, and have a child together. This wasn't apparently a drunken one-night stand style of affair.

    I'm bemused by how people apparently want MPs to be 'more like them', whilst simultaneously wanting them to be 'better than them'; i.e. not having affairs, never doing wrong, etc, etc.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2017
    Ruth can overdo the vertically challenged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.
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    HYUFD said:

    ‪Can’t imagine why. ‬

    European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote


    Nursing and Midwifery Council says NHS faces staffing shortfall due to ‘double whammy’ of European and UK-trained medics leaving

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nurses-midwives-leaving-uk-nhs-brexit-vote

    5% of UK nurses are from the EU and numbers of nurses from outside the EU are still rising
    ' Overall, the NHS says there are around 3,200 more EU nationals working in the NHS than at the time of the referendum '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41556997

    So any problem with EU nurses seems to be rather specific.
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    dr_spyn said:
    Now he knows how it feels.
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    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    ‪Can’t imagine why. ‬

    European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote


    Nursing and Midwifery Council says NHS faces staffing shortfall due to ‘double whammy’ of European and UK-trained medics leaving

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nurses-midwives-leaving-uk-nhs-brexit-vote

    5% of UK nurses are from the EU and numbers of nurses from outside the EU are still rising
    ' Overall, the NHS says there are around 3,200 more EU nationals working in the NHS than at the time of the referendum '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41556997

    So any problem with EU nurses seems to be rather specific.
    Indeed and the government is now expanding training places for domestically trained nurses and has created nursing associates.

    Plus the language tests for EU and overseas nurses have also had an impact it is not just Brexit.
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    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Sky reporting replacement for Fallon expected to be announced by 11.00 am
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    Miss Marf, sounds promising.
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    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Tom Tugendhat is 33/1 generally for next Tory leader and 50/1 with Betfred and 60/1 with Betfair as next Prime Minister.

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    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was the Coalition that rather fossilised the cabinet and stopped new talent coming through.

    That Coalition does increasingly look like a golden era of good government.

    In other news NZ is planning to tackle its housing and infrastructure challenge via importing British construction workers. Not sure how this fits with clamping down on migration. I expect a similar drive here would be the same but an order of magnitude bigger.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/02/new-zealand-launches-biggest-ever-drive-to-attract-brexit-britains-builders

    Haven't we been told that British construction workers are expensive, unskilled, lazy and in insufficient numbers ?

    As to the coalition - hundreds of billions of extra borrowing, stagnant productivity and wages, continuous trade deficits, Middle Eastern warmongering, uncontrolled immigration, triple lock pensions, unafforadable housing, student debts, EU humiliations, Scottish nationalism rampant, vanity projects and plenty more I've temporarily forgotten.

    There's not much good government there.
    Construction has been the real star of the economy since 2013, with output up 27%.

    I think the government's economic record has been better than you describe. The budget deficit has gone from 11% of GDP to 2%, while unemployment has halved.
    You wouldn’t think there was a problem with construction of new homes round here. Colchester, Chelmsford have enormous new estates, and more are planned.
    It is baffling.

    Everyone says there are lots of new houses being built near them and the ONS data says that new house building is the highest on records dating back to 1997.

    Yet we're told that house construction is low and in much of the country housing is completely unaffordable on local wages.
    House prices rocketed from 1997-2007, but haven't risen by all that much since then, London excepted.
    I suspect there is a pretty close connection between change in housing affordability and electoral swing since 2010.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,985

    I’m sure this story will get an airing if Rory gets Defence.

    When Prof Noah Coburn volunteered to work in war-torn Afghanistan for the charity established by Rory Stewart and the Prince of Wales, his wife, Shoshana, agreed to go with him.

    She promised her parents that she would stay for no more than nine months. Little did Prof Coburn know, however, that the couple’s marriage would founder and that his wife would end up being charmed by Stewart, who is now a prominent Tory MP.

    “Noah was absolutely devastated when his marriage broke down,” a friend of the eminent American anthropologist tells Mandrake. “He loved Shoshana very dearly.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html

    Both she and Stewart, who was once imprisoned by the Taliban, decline to comment. However, a mutual friend insists that their romantic relationship did not begin until she had separated from her husband.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-tory-toff-set-to-tie-1405678
    And they married five years ago, and have a child together. This wasn't apparently a drunken one-night stand style of affair.

    I'm bemused by how people apparently want MPs to be 'more like them', whilst simultaneously wanting them to be 'better than them'; i.e. not having affairs, never doing wrong, etc, etc.
    There's an article on Con Home calling for the sacking of any MP who's ever had an affair or visited a prostitute.
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Exactly. It could be a blessing in disguise. Get rid of all the old wood, bring into the cabinet some young talent, people who stand a good chance of succeeding her.

    The question is: who is drawing up false accusations against some of those younger people?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,921
    Several names discussed on here to replace Fallon.
    Suspect any of them would be better than him - so really this could be a blessing in disguise for TM.
    Really it makes you wonder what he was doing in the job in the first place.
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    This has been around for a while (I think I may have hinted at it previously). I was told that Martin Gilbert was still involved in the financial side; if so that would be at least as significant as the other names mentioned.
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    Crest-fallon...
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    woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Sean_F said:

    I’m sure this story will get an airing if Rory gets Defence.

    When Prof Noah Coburn volunteered to work in war-torn Afghanistan for the charity established by Rory Stewart and the Prince of Wales, his wife, Shoshana, agreed to go with him.

    She promised her parents that she would stay for no more than nine months. Little did Prof Coburn know, however, that the couple’s marriage would founder and that his wife would end up being charmed by Stewart, who is now a prominent Tory MP.

    “Noah was absolutely devastated when his marriage broke down,” a friend of the eminent American anthropologist tells Mandrake. “He loved Shoshana very dearly.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html

    Both she and Stewart, who was once imprisoned by the Taliban, decline to comment. However, a mutual friend insists that their romantic relationship did not begin until she had separated from her husband.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-tory-toff-set-to-tie-1405678
    And they married five years ago, and have a child together. This wasn't apparently a drunken one-night stand style of affair.

    I'm bemused by how people apparently want MPs to be 'more like them', whilst simultaneously wanting them to be 'better than them'; i.e. not having affairs, never doing wrong, etc, etc.
    There's an article on Con Home calling for the sacking of any MP who's ever had an affair or visited a prostitute.
    Wouldn't need to renovate Parliament if that were the case, could use a small village hall as a chamber. This does bring to mind the scene in the last Yes Minster where Sir Humphrey shows Hacker the MI5 files showing the Chancellor was a pervert and the Foreign Secretary was a swindler.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Remainers will be happy to see him advance

    This is what he said on the recent closure of Southern Salads, previously a significant employer in his Tonbridge constituency.

    "I campaigned very actively for Remain because this is exactly what I expected, and I'm very sorry that it has happened.

    Unfortunately it turned out the company had been poorly managed for a number of years and like other struggling businesses were using the excuse of Brexit as a cover for their own failings.
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    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    At last, we agree on something!
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    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    She already has them:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (financing and locations not specified)

    Vote winnerzzz
  • Options
    Starmer: "Show us the Brexit Papers"
    Walker: 'We'll respond in due course'"
    Starmer: "When?"
    Walker: "As soon as we can"
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Tugenhat is too new a face for Def Secretary, perhaps a junior post. Also the MOD would probably prefer a Minister who was less hands on - Tugendhat was too recently in uniform. Rory Stewart at DFID is more of an indication of his sort of trajectory.

    T May is known for her caution so I dont expect any big surprises (esp after the last walking trip in Wales where she plumped for an election)
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    She already has them:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (financing and locations not specified)

    Vote winnerzzz
    It was more about presentation than policy.

    But the SNP have done well out of having a moralising mum as their leader - seems a bit Cameron to Nicla's Blair though.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,799

    HYUFD said:

    ‪Can’t imagine why. ‬

    European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote


    Nursing and Midwifery Council says NHS faces staffing shortfall due to ‘double whammy’ of European and UK-trained medics leaving

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nurses-midwives-leaving-uk-nhs-brexit-vote

    5% of UK nurses are from the EU and numbers of nurses from outside the EU are still rising
    ' Overall, the NHS says there are around 3,200 more EU nationals working in the NHS than at the time of the referendum '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41556997

    So any problem with EU nurses seems to be rather specific.
    There's a lag while people decide what they are going to do, check out the options and go through applications. It explains the apparent contradiction between a trend to leave and a (probably short term) actual increase in numbers immediately following the vote.
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    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Sky reporting replacement for Fallon expected to be announced by 11.00 am
    As a PB exclusive I can reveal that the new Defence Secretary will not be me
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    juniusjunius Posts: 73
    In his resignation letter Fallon said "I have fallen below the standard expected of the Armed Forces". So - if he had been Cabinet Minister of a different department - does it imply that he would not have felt the need to resign ?
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    junius said:

    In his resignation letter Fallon said "I have fallen below the standard expected of the Armed Forces". So - if he had been Cabinet Minister of a different department - does it imply that he would not have felt the need to resign ?

    Diplomats in the Foreign Office must be held to a lower standard clearly.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Rory an obvious choice when you think it through !
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,799
    edited November 2017
    Norm said:

    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Remainers will be happy to see him advance

    This is what he said on the recent closure of Southern Salads, previously a significant employer in his Tonbridge constituency.

    "I campaigned very actively for Remain because this is exactly what I expected, and I'm very sorry that it has happened.

    Unfortunately it turned out the company had been poorly managed for a number of years and like other struggling businesses were using the excuse of Brexit as a cover for their own failings.
    The proximate cause of death, I believe, was the sudden drop in the value of sterling. The company was buying produce in euros from the EU and selling it in pounds to the supermarkets.

    Edit. Whether you blame Brexit or not for the bankruptcy of Southern Salads with the loss of many jobs, coincidentally it did fail and it won't be the only one.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    edited November 2017

    Starmer: "Show us the Brexit Papers"
    Walker: 'We'll respond in due course'"
    Starmer: "When?"
    Walker: "As soon as we can"

    As soon as we’ve gone through them all with the big black redaction marker pen?
  • Options
    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Sky reporting replacement for Fallon expected to be announced by 11.00 am
    As a PB exclusive I can reveal that the new Defence Secretary will not be me
    In these crazy times we can take nothing for certain.
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    As a special inter-race treat, here's my early ramble about how the 2018 season might work out:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/early-thoughts-on-2018.html
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    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    She already has them:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (financing and locations not specified)

    Vote winnerzzz
    If true, your second point would be a killer. At the present time nothing is enraging true blue home counties voters more than proposed new towns / garden villages. In east Surrey there are posters opposing the proposals there on virtually every street corner.
  • Options
    Sky got David Mellor on to discuss the sleaze
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    HHemmelig said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    She already has them:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (financing and locations not specified)

    Vote winnerzzz
    If true, your second point would be a killer. At the present time nothing is enraging true blue home counties voters more than proposed new towns / garden villages. In east Surrey there are posters opposing the proposals there on virtually every street corner.
    NIMBYism is very powerful. The chinese have it right.
  • Options

    Sky got David Mellor on to discuss the sleaze

    Well, he is an expert.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146
    Sandpit said:

    Starmer: "Show us the Brexit Papers"
    Walker: 'We'll respond in due course'"
    Starmer: "When?"
    Walker: "As soon as we can"

    As soon as we’ve gone through them all with the big black redaction marker pen?
    30 years time, after the Cabinet releases them....
  • Options
    HHemmelig said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    She already has them:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (financing and locations not specified)

    Vote winnerzzz
    If true, your second point would be a killer. At the present time nothing is enraging true blue home counties voters more than proposed new towns / garden villages. In east Surrey there are posters opposing the proposals there on virtually every street corner.
    I'm in West Surrey. The same things true there. Pressure on roads and traffic really enrages people.
  • Options
    I used to think I probably wasn't deviant enough to be a Tory, not enough "odd sexual ponchants". Now I realise that I am definitely not deviant enough...

    I do feel sorry for MPs though. As I wandered round the palace of Westminster yesterday the distinct impression I got was of an institution and people utterly disconnected from reality. They all (mostly) come from normal, they represent normal people in normal places.

    Then they go to Westminster and spend most of the week away from family in a place populated by men in white bow ties with as many rules as there are rooms and corridors to get lost in and so many people to remember not as people but titles. Its no wonder that so many of them end up on the kinky side of bonkers. They're institutionalised by a mad house,
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    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting
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    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
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    For God sake's put Rory in the Cabinet.
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    Marf is due on Daily Politics at about 1250.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sandpit said:

    Starmer: "Show us the Brexit Papers"
    Walker: 'We'll respond in due course'"
    Starmer: "When?"
    Walker: "As soon as we can"

    As soon as we’ve gone through them all with the big black redaction marker pen?
    Starmer upsetting the wrong people again..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/01/exclusive-queen-not-happy-dragged-labour-row-brexit-papers/

    "Buckingham Palace is understood to be “not happy” after Labour MPs tried to drag the Queen into a row about Brexit yesterday, The Telegraph can disclose."
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    Pulpstar said:

    Rory an obvious choice when you think it through !

    Yes, you would think so but my spies are whispering the name of Tom Tugenhat. Not sure how much they know but naturally I have taken the usual precautions.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    If the PM was willing to gamble, now would be the time to get rid of Johnson using the example of Fallon. Green would have to go as well but it would offer her a chance to move some fresh faces in as well.
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    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    Eh? He's First Minister of State. That's high as any Cabinet post. Effectively deputy PM.
  • Options

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    I wasn't thinking promotion - quite the opposite
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited November 2017

    Sky got David Mellor on to discuss the sleaze

    LOL! Great trolling from Sky there. :D
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:

    Rory an obvious choice when you think it through !

    Yes, you would think so but my spies are whispering the name of Tom Tugenhat. Not sure how much they know but naturally I have taken the usual precautions.
    I backed Ellwood, Mordaunt and Lancaster yesterday - not handing any more cash over to Ladbrokes who have just managed to mis-settle a bet...
  • Options

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    I wasn't thinking promotion - quite the opposite
    Whoever is Defence will need to have spent a good few hours being vetted by Chief Whip for even the slightest sniff of some long ago knee touching and so on.
  • Options

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    Eh? He's First Minister of State. That's high as any Cabinet post. Effectively deputy PM.
    It's also a bit of a non-job, see Clegg for example. But yeah, interesting times.

    Clearing out the stables now would be very wise. But they need to get rid of all the s**t (cough cough BJ)...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    Marf is due on Daily Politics at about 1250.

    The rise and rise of Marf continues...
  • Options

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    I wasn't thinking promotion - quite the opposite
    Whoever is Defence will need to have spent a good few hours being vetted by Chief Whip for even the slightest sniff of some long ago knee touching and so on.
    Not if it is a female appointment
  • Options

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    Eh? He's First Minister of State. That's high as any Cabinet post. Effectively deputy PM.
    It's also a bit of a non-job, see Clegg for example. But yeah, interesting times.

    Clearing out the stables now would be very wise. But they need to get rid of all the s**t (cough cough BJ)...
    I doubt May is brave enough for a 'night of the long knives', but just maybe her anger at all these dodgy male cabinet ministers will embolden her.
  • Options

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Promoting Damien Green at the moment would be 'brave'.
    Eh? He's First Minister of State. That's high as any Cabinet post. Effectively deputy PM.
    It's also a bit of a non-job, see Clegg for example. But yeah, interesting times.

    Clearing out the stables now would be very wise. But they need to get rid of all the s**t (cough cough BJ)...
    I doubt May is brave enough for a 'night of the long knives', but just maybe her anger at all these dodgy male cabinet ministers will embolden her.
    Hope so
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    #PrayforBoris
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Green about to go, rather than take a promotion one assumes? Maybe we do get a proper reshuffle after all?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    GIN1138 said:

    Sky got David Mellor on to discuss the sleaze

    LOL! Great trolling from Sky there. :D
    The cabinet has to toe the line.
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    Sandpit said:

    Sky reporting Damien Green seen going into no 10 - later followed by Gavin Williamson

    Interesting

    Green about to go, rather than take a promotion one assumes? Maybe we do get a proper reshuffle after all?
    Fingers crossed
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
  • Options
    There is a slippery slope here. We're getting to the point where we're expecting our MPs to be nigh on virgins, and only missionary position allowed at most.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Guido has a list of Labour figures with wandering palms.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    FF43 said:

    Norm said:

    Tom Tugendhat uniquely qualified to succeed Fallon - and he was scheduled to appear on Daily Politics before Fallon's resignation was announced. You might want to watch today BBC2 12-1pm (I'm on at 12.40pm). Will report to Mike first if I learn anything new. I expect he'll be asked on air point-blank, if there's no announcement of a successor before the show airs. I just read 'The Fog of War', Tugendhat's essay on the interference of lawyers in soldiers' work, which he wrote after serving in Iraq. His wife, too, is extraordinary - a judge and clear thinker. He might even be the next Tory leader ... is there a market for this? I'd bet on it now.

    Remainers will be happy to see him advance

    This is what he said on the recent closure of Southern Salads, previously a significant employer in his Tonbridge constituency.

    "I campaigned very actively for Remain because this is exactly what I expected, and I'm very sorry that it has happened.

    Unfortunately it turned out the company had been poorly managed for a number of years and like other struggling businesses were using the excuse of Brexit as a cover for their own failings.
    The proximate cause of death, I believe, was the sudden drop in the value of sterling. The company was buying produce in euros from the EU and selling it in pounds to the supermarkets.

    Edit. Whether you blame Brexit or not for the bankruptcy of Southern Salads with the loss of many jobs, coincidentally it did fail and it won't be the only one.
    You might like to read this..

    https://www.shareprophets.com/views/31060/250-kent-job-losses-as-southern-salads-goes-bust-blaming-brexit-but-its-all-lies-in-the-remoaning-independent

    Tugendhat jumped on the bandwagon without checking the facts.
  • Options
    Tom Newton Dunn‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @tnewtondunn 1 min1 minute ago

    Breaking: New Defence Secretary is Gavin Williamson - the Chief Whip! Wow.


    Meh, May plays it timid and safe
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    HHemmelig said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ruth can overdo the vertically challendged puritanical Scottish wifey finger wagging schitck for me - it's all a bit Nicla-esque.

    And if it was that popular - I'd visit my mother more often.

    Worry ye not about Ruth's moralising, it's precisely one skin cell deep.
    It gets her a 15 second slot on national media - but it seems overplayed of late. She'll need other strings to her bow if she's going to rise to the next level.
    She already has them:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (financing and locations not specified)

    Vote winnerzzz
    If true, your second point would be a killer. At the present time nothing is enraging true blue home counties voters more than proposed new towns / garden villages. In east Surrey there are posters opposing the proposals there on virtually every street corner.
    I'm in West Surrey. The same things true there. Pressure on roads and traffic really enrages people.
    Surrey is ridiculously over-populated, I agree from my visits there.
    Herefordshire and most of Shropshire are almost empty.
    Powys is empty except for a high population density of sheep.
  • Options

    Tom Newton Dunn‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @tnewtondunn 1 min1 minute ago

    Breaking: New Defence Secretary is Gavin Williamson - the Chief Whip! Wow.


    Meh, May plays it timid and safe

    What does Rory the tory have to do to get a proper job?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,396
    edited November 2017
    Gavin Williamson defence and next PM
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    Guido’s got it in for Labour this morning, he reckons there’s at least *NINE* separate complaints now - including two rapes, four sexual assaults and two cases of serial harassment.

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/02/full-litany-of-abuse-claims-being-covered-up-by-labour/
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    Gavin Williamson? Meh.
This discussion has been closed.