He obviously has one key qualification that others don't have: the ear of the Prime Minister.
Certainly, and that is part of the problem.
Exactly. This is the essence of it. TMay has long been a micro-manager who has not trusted or allowed anyone outside a small number of people the scope to do anything without her consent. This became evident at the GE and has now manifested itself with this appointment. It is, sadly, a sign of weakness and one that makes her leadership more brittle.
That is the reason for the texts - not sour grapes, but frustration that she remains in her small world excluding all others.
The work I’ve seen has suggested that people’s behavioural patterns and mind map are irrevocably fixed after the are of, around, 40. There may be temporary change but there is almost invariably snap-back. That people though Theresa May would be different was always the triumph of hope over expertise.
However, I'm not at all confident that this is the end of the gropegate fallout. The distressing fact of the matter is the government is falling apart, and the PM is not really in a position to do much about it, even if she were temperamentally suited to do so. Unfortunately she isn't, she'll continue to react on this and other issues by one-off decisions to deal with the immediate problem but without any over-reaching strategy or attempt to seize the initiative.
So Mrs May has lost you and JohnO today.
She’s doomed.
Not necessarily given both backed Remain
This is nothing to do with Remain/Leave/Brexit, all to do with Mrs May being crap.
John has faithfully and wonderfully served his party for decades, that's what should worry Mrs May (and all Tories)
He also voted for and strongly backed Remain and Leave won, winning the majority of Tory movers and voters in the process.
If Remainer May goes pre Brexit it will be Leaver Boris or Davis who likely replaces her.
I think the elevation of Whats-his-name as Defence Secretary is a brilliant move by May, if not quite a masterstroke of the same calibre as appointing the three stooges to implement Brexit. People who complain that this guy is unqualified spectacularly miss the point. Since when has competence been a requirement for ANY of Mrs May's cabinet? Mrs May does two things with this appointment. She unites the government and Tory backbenchers like she hasn't done since THAT election. Her ship sails on rudderless and taking on water without disturbing the rest of the crew.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
A few years ago inflation hit 3%. ITV News at the time said it was the highest for two or three years. The newsreader, without a shred of irony, then said "Here's X, with a report on how prices are rising like never before."
Tom Newton DunnVERIFIED ACCOUNT @tnewtondunn 1 min1 minute ago
Breaking: New Defence Secretary is Gavin Williamson - the Chief Whip! Wow.
Meh, May plays it timid and safe
What does Rory the tory have to do to get a proper job?
A bloody good question.
Why is RS the vessel into which all tory hopes and dreams are poured? What's so great about him?
He is one of those people, similar to Dan Jarvis on the Lab side, onto which people project hopes and expectations in the absence of anyone who has any real substance.
Up close, of course, these people simply don't have it. Yet.
Why, you ask? His (and DJ's) profile is such that he ticks a lot of boxes. I fear for RS he may look a little Robin Cook-ish to be PM.
Do we care? Jean Chretien, former PM of Canada has a half-paralysed face. Gordon Brown, former PM only has one functioning eye.
As a default I distrust toffs. They're educated to exude capability where there's very little. But it would be very good to see more of him in a job like health or home office which can produce one crisis after another. (He seemed able to deal with more minor crises involving warring tribes.)
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
In the BBC2 docudrama Theresa v Boris: How May Became PM, Williamson was played by the actor Daniel Casey. He was portrayed as a ruthless, Malcolm Tucker-esque Machiavel. “I’ll fire you, then I’ll fucking castrate you, all right?” he warned one Tory MP who failed to vote for May in the first round of the leadership contest. The impression of menace was enhanced by the appearance of a pet tarantula.
Williamson keeps the spider in a glass box on his desk. Cronus, as it is known, was named after a Greek god who castrated his father and ate his children. The parliamentary authorities demanded that Williamson expel the spider, but his team convinced them otherwise. “You have to look at different ways to persuade people to vote with the government,” Williamson has said. “Cronus is a perfect example of an incredibly clean, ruthless killer.”
Doesn't sound like it'd be beneath him to cull a bunch of rivals and secure a cabinet seat in one swoop. (Of course there's no evidence at all pointing to him).
The new Defence Secretary came up through the Party network of local government and Association office. The generals will fear that he will simply do the Treasury’s bidding. We suspect that they may be agreeably surprised.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 36m36 minutes ago Minister tells me: "She's gone mad. It's real 'end of days' stuff. He's [Williamson] a real slimeball, w/ his own leadership team in place"
Beth Rigby @BethRigby 8m8 minutes ago Me to a (female) MP; Has Williamson’s appointment gone down badly? “You bet your f***king life”
Sharp drop in the pound though. Were the markets expecting more?
Hmm, indeed you’re right, pound off a cent right at midday, coming back up a little now though. Maybe the markets were looking for 0.75%
No, it's because the guidance in the report indicates that they are in no hurry to increase the rate further.
In fairness, I can understand that. It is very likely that the current depreciation led inflation will wash out over the next few months and growth is still below expectations. I just think the Bank needs more room for manoeuvre. If we hit any major bumps there is still very little downside to use.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
About bloody time. When will we see this reflected in savings rates?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 36m36 minutes ago Minister tells me: "She's gone mad. It's real 'end of days' stuff. He's [Williamson] a real slimeball, w/ his own leadership team in place"
Beth Rigby @BethRigby 8m8 minutes ago Me to a (female) MP; Has Williamson’s appointment gone down badly? “You bet your f***king life”
All is well in the commons.
Maybe she wanted to remove that kind of player from the Whips office. The entire point being to put him in a position where he would be too busy to cause harm, while moving in a more modern and less aggressive whipping operation, as this all starts at the Whips office and their dirty secrets dossier.
In the BBC2 docudrama Theresa v Boris: How May Became PM, Williamson was played by the actor Daniel Casey. He was portrayed as a ruthless, Malcolm Tucker-esque Machiavel. “I’ll fire you, then I’ll fucking castrate you, all right?” he warned one Tory MP who failed to vote for May in the first round of the leadership contest. The impression of menace was enhanced by the appearance of a pet tarantula.
Williamson keeps the spider in a glass box on his desk. Cronus, as it is known, was named after a Greek god who castrated his father and ate his children. The parliamentary authorities demanded that Williamson expel the spider, but his team convinced them otherwise. “You have to look at different ways to persuade people to vote with the government,” Williamson has said. “Cronus is a perfect example of an incredibly clean, ruthless killer.”
May - 165 Leadsom - 66 Gove - 48 Crabb - 34 Fox - 16
May won a majority of vote in round 1 by a single vote. I doubt that was a coincidence. So I really don't think there would have been any threatening of MPs to vote one way or another.
Quit your whinging you lot. I'm about to buy a nice house, the misses wants a third horse and my company's sales for 2018 are denominated in € as well as my pension being tilted toward the US.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
One is on the record, the other is not. Draw your own conclusions.
The first test for a statement being genuinely informative is to ask: would the opposite be something that could possibly be said? As the opposite here is: "the PM isn't particularly fussed over defence and has put a long-term enemy whose motives she strongly suspects into an absolutely crucial job", Tugendhat's statement fails the test.
I see Osbourne agrees with me about the ridiculous Fallon resignation statement:
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a cabinet where she has few friends. For a prime minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble....
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
At which point he apologised and stopped which she accepted.
I've seen worse than that at alcohol-fueled dinners.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
We'll not see 5% interest rates in ordinary times. There is too much money looking for a return sloshing around the system.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
And she has said today that if this is what prompted his resignation, it is the "most ridiculous in the history of the universe" .... which seems reasonably unambiguous.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
We'll not see 5% interest rates in ordinary times. There is too much money looking for a return sloshing around the system.
Agreed. Can’t believe anyone thinks interest rates are going to go back to 5%.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
At which point he apologised and stopped which she accepted.
I've seen worse than that at alcohol-fueled dinners.
Of course, oft was the time in 2007 where I would have to threaten violence to ward off someone's unwanted physical advances.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
At which point he apologised and stopped which she accepted.
I've seen worse than that at alcohol-fueled dinners.
Of course, oft was the time in 2007 where I would have to threaten violence to ward off someone's unwanted physical advances.
The journalist in question seems unworried, so there's no reason for us to feel outrage on her behalf.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
At which point he apologised and stopped which she accepted.
I've seen worse than that at alcohol-fueled dinners.
Of course, oft was the time in 2007 where I would have to threaten violence to ward off someone's unwanted physical advances.
I don't think she actually felt the need to threaten violence it seems to me and the way she tells the story to be a joke. An actual event but a bit of banter. Not harassment.
Are you honestly claiming you've not seen worse than that at an event involving alcohol?
I do wonder if there's the whiff of sour grapes in this. Unless Williamson was confined to the Chief Whip's office for ever, where else could he be reasonably moved to but another cabinet post, when he's done a pretty decent job as CW in challenging circumstances?
Re your last sentence, Nah, he's done poorly, I'm sorry but ducking out of votes isn't doing a decent job as Chief Whip.
I disapprove of the government's attitude towards these opposition motions but presumably the strategy of ducking out was signed off (or determined) at a higher level than the Chief Whip. It certainly fits with much of the rest of the way Theresa May approaches politics.
Williamson's main achievements as Chief Whip were not losing votes that actually mattered, and limiting rebellions to tiny numbers.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
About bloody time. When will we see this reflected in savings rates?
Not for a while I suspect. Too much money washing about looking for a home at the moment and the market is not competitive.
So TMay knows her days are numbered, and decides to give her supporter Williamson a big position to show him off, and thence a chance at the top job (if he succeeds at the MoD).
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
About bloody time. When will we see this reflected in savings rates?
Not for a while I suspect. Too much money washing about looking for a home at the moment and the market is not competitive.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
We'll not see 5% interest rates in ordinary times. There is too much money looking for a return sloshing around the system.
Agreed. Can’t believe anyone thinks interest rates are going to go back to 5%.
5% is a "normal" rate. Pre 2007 it was somewhat below the average for base or MLR. I accept it will take years but at some point we shall surely recover from the 2007 disaster. If we don't we risk a series of other problems, many of which are already evident.
So TMay knows her days are numbered, and decides to give her supporter Williamson a big position to show him off, and thence a chance at the top job (if he succeeds at the MoD).
Perhaps not so crazy after all.
I'm fairly certain being associated with Theresa May will be a hindrance in the next Tory leadership contest.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
About bloody time. When will we see this reflected in savings rates?
Not for a while I suspect. Too much money washing about looking for a home at the moment and the market is not competitive.
I thought we weren't saving enough?
The savings ratio is a net figure. We are borrowing far too much, encouraged by very low rates.
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a Cabinet where she has few friends. For a Prime Minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble.
Mr Fallon was — as he concedes — on the wrong end of another shift in culture, where sexual behaviour that was never appropriate but was tolerated 10 or 15 years ago is today completely unacceptable.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
"In the workplace"? I thought he put a hand on someone's knee at a dinner, where presumably alcohol was served.
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
He kept touching her knee until she threatened to punch him.
And she has said today that if this is what prompted his resignation, it is the "most ridiculous in the history of the universe" .... which seems reasonably unambiguous.
Fallon didn't resign because of the knee touching. He resigned because there were more stories.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
We'll not see 5% interest rates in ordinary times. There is too much money looking for a return sloshing around the system.
Agreed. Can’t believe anyone thinks interest rates are going to go back to 5%.
5% is a "normal" rate. Pre 2007 it was somewhat below the average for base or MLR. I accept it will take years but at some point we shall surely recover from the 2007 disaster. If we don't we risk a series of other problems, many of which are already evident.
I'm not sure that this isn't 'normal' now for the kind of monetary system and government that exists in the modern age. In the end, the sole reason for pulling down the Bretton Woods Agreement was to untie money from real value, so that government could expand in ways that it couldn't without previously raising tax revenue from increased productivity. So gov't will always be indebted beyond that which is purely cyclical correction if its ability to borrow is dependent on its own ability to set the rate (because the B of E isn't really independent - it just follows a set of targets set by the treasury).
If there are further resignations, this reshuffle might look premature. On the other hand, Mr Williamson might get some further promotions if there are.
If there are further resignations, this reshuffle might look premature. On the other hand, Mr Williamson might get some further promotions if there are.
If there are further resignations, this reshuffle might look premature. On the other hand, Mr Williamson might get some further promotions if there are.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
About bloody time. When will we see this reflected in savings rates?
Rates have just been put back to where they were last summer before Carney and co cut them after the referendum. A totally unnecessary cut then backed up by more QE. So let's not get carried away.
Savings rates are not going to change much on the back of a 0.25 per cent rate rise. Banks and building societies don't need your cash as the government and BoE has been shovelling tens and even hundreds of billions at them at dirt cheap rates for quite some time.
It speaks volumes that ten years after the financial crisis we get excited by a rate rise of 0.25 per cent to a mere 0.5 per cent. Pre 2008 4 or 5 per cent was the norm. If you cannot cope with the former you have too much debt - but then our entire economy relies on more debt and higher house prices to grow. As you might say the heroin addict needs his fix - and nurse won't do the necessary thing and ween them off of the drug,
And look at how the house price inflation that has resulted has affected Tory support amongst the young.
If there are further resignations, this reshuffle might look premature. On the other hand, Mr Williamson might get some further promotions if there are.
If there aren't, and there are no further revelations about Fallon, then May might well come out of this enhanced.
She has altered the character of the Whips office, her minister has resigned in a prompt and dignified fashion over what was only a very minor indiscretion some years ago which even the victim was unconcerned about, and unlike Labour there are no allegations so far of a criminal nature.
If there are further resignations, this reshuffle might look premature. On the other hand, Mr Williamson might get some further promotions if there are.
yep this weekend could be interestingi f the papers think there's blood in the water and theres more stories to come.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
About bloody time. When will we see this reflected in savings rates?
Not for a while I suspect. Too much money washing about looking for a home at the moment and the market is not competitive.
Yeah.
Retail banks don't want your savings.
They can't lend it out and make much/any money on it.
So we have a kind of absurd situ where retail banks are trying to attract savings customers in order to make money out of them with fees/other products/marketing kickbacks etc, rather than out of their savings.
Shoulda let the banks go bust and protected savings only at a basic level. Those without assets shoulda defaulted on those with assets - that was the outcome the free market was trying to force.
Instead, the young and assetless now exist in a zombie economy condemned to pay rent to the asset class.
5% is a "normal" rate. Pre 2007 it was somewhat below the average for base or MLR. I accept it will take years but at some point we shall surely recover from the 2007 disaster. If we don't we risk a series of other problems, many of which are already evident.
I'm not sure that this isn't 'normal' now for the kind of monetary system and government that exists in the modern age. In the end, the sole reason for pulling down the Bretton Woods Agreement was to untie money from real value, so that government could expand in ways that it couldn't without previously raising tax revenue from increased productivity. So gov't will always be indebted beyond that which is purely cyclical correction if its ability to borrow is dependent on its own ability to set the rate (because the B of E isn't really independent - it just follows a set of targets set by the treasury).
Its certainly not just a local issue, almost all of the western world has now had historically low rates for the best part of a decade since the crash. Is this the "new normal"? I very much hope not. It encourages consumption, it inflates asset prices, it excludes the have nots from the property ladder, it penalises thrift and self reliance and all to keep demand buoyant so that we can live beyond our means.
Governments don't really control interest rates except at the short end of the curve. If the risk of lending to governments running unsustainable deficits becomes evident then yields will increase to recognise that risk. I fear that some countries are going to have to go bust before there is a material change.
Interest rate decision welcome. Its a long way back to 5% but every journey starts with a single step. 10 years of ultra low interest rates have massively distorted our economy. A heavy price to pay for keeping some zombie firms alive, many of which in the retail sector then failed anyway.
We'll not see 5% interest rates in ordinary times. There is too much money looking for a return sloshing around the system.
Agreed. Can’t believe anyone thinks interest rates are going to go back to 5%.
5% is a "normal" rate. Pre 2007 it was somewhat below the average for base or MLR. I accept it will take years but at some point we shall surely recover from the 2007 disaster. If we don't we risk a series of other problems, many of which are already evident.
With a 2% inflation target and a 3% risk/time premium, 5% is an 'expected' rate for 10 year gilts.
Short term rates can be expected to be lower on average but subject to short term issues eg around politics.
Comments
If Remainer May goes pre Brexit it will be Leaver Boris or Davis who likely replaces her.
As the No.19 bus driver said to me this morning.
Seriously? it was 'tolerated' in 2007 to feel up women in the workplace?
It wasn't 'tolerated' two decades before that where I worked and a very senior manager was quietly taken aside and told to cease & desist......
A few years ago inflation hit 3%. ITV News at the time said it was the highest for two or three years. The newsreader, without a shred of irony, then said "Here's X, with a report on how prices are rising like never before."
As a default I distrust toffs. They're educated to exude capability where there's very little. But it would be very good to see more of him in a job like health or home office which can produce one crisis after another. (He seemed able to deal with more minor crises involving warring tribes.)
The new Defence Secretary came up through the Party network of local government and Association office. The generals will fear that he will simply do the Treasury’s bidding. We suspect that they may be agreeably surprised.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/11/the-baby-faced-assassin-is-defence-secretary-has-he-already-launched-a-coup.html
Minister tells me: "She's gone mad. It's real 'end of days' stuff. He's [Williamson] a real slimeball, w/ his own leadership team in place"
Beth Rigby @BethRigby 8m8 minutes ago
Me to a (female) MP; Has Williamson’s appointment gone down badly? “You bet your f***king life”
All is well in the commons.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/926048280320053248
May - 165
Leadsom - 66
Gove - 48
Crabb - 34
Fox - 16
May won a majority of vote in round 1 by a single vote. I doubt that was a coincidence. So I really don't think there would have been any threatening of MPs to vote one way or another.
Call me Pulpstar Carney
I've seen far worse than a hand on someone's knee at dinners before and more recently than 2007!
https://reaction.life/ludicrous-gavin-williamson-must-stopped-becoming-prime-minister/
For Mrs May, this also feels like a career-defining moment. She has now insisted that certain standards of past behaviour are not consistent with membership of her government. Mrs May will remember the “Back to Basics” farce that unwittingly engulfed the Major government in the Nineties. If what looks like a strong stand today doesn’t descend into weakness tomorrow, then she will have to enforce that ruling whatever it means for other ministers in her government. As one very senior Conservative says privately this morning: Mr Fallon’s certainly won’t be the only resignation or dismissal. That may include potentially her closest allies in a cabinet where she has few friends. For a prime minister without authority or a majority, that is one hell of a political gamble....
I've seen worse than that at alcohol-fueled dinners.
Are you honestly claiming you've not seen worse than that at an event involving alcohol?
Williamson's main achievements as Chief Whip were not losing votes that actually mattered, and limiting rebellions to tiny numbers.
So TMay knows her days are numbered, and decides to give her supporter Williamson a big position to show him off, and thence a chance at the top job (if he succeeds at the MoD).
Perhaps not so crazy after all.
Perhaps he can take on multiple roles at once?
Savings rates are not going to change much on the back of a 0.25 per cent rate rise. Banks and building societies don't need your cash as the government and BoE has been shovelling tens and even hundreds of billions at them at dirt cheap rates for quite some time.
It speaks volumes that ten years after the financial crisis we get excited by a rate rise of 0.25 per cent to a mere 0.5 per cent. Pre 2008 4 or 5 per cent was the norm. If you cannot cope with the former you have too much debt - but then our entire economy relies on more debt and higher house prices to grow. As you might say the heroin addict needs his fix - and nurse won't do the necessary thing and ween them off of the drug,
And look at how the house price inflation that has resulted has affected Tory support amongst the young.
She has altered the character of the Whips office, her minister has resigned in a prompt and dignified fashion over what was only a very minor indiscretion some years ago which even the victim was unconcerned about, and unlike Labour there are no allegations so far of a criminal nature.
NEW THREAD
Retail banks don't want your savings.
They can't lend it out and make much/any money on it.
So we have a kind of absurd situ where retail banks are trying to attract savings customers in order to make money out of them with fees/other products/marketing kickbacks etc, rather than out of their savings.
Shoulda let the banks go bust and protected savings only at a basic level. Those without assets shoulda defaulted on those with assets - that was the outcome the free market was trying to force.
Instead, the young and assetless now exist in a zombie economy condemned to pay rent to the asset class.
The bailouts were socialism for the rich.
Governments don't really control interest rates except at the short end of the curve. If the risk of lending to governments running unsustainable deficits becomes evident then yields will increase to recognise that risk. I fear that some countries are going to have to go bust before there is a material change.
Short term rates can be expected to be lower on average but subject to short term issues eg around politics.