F1: perusing the markets early. Mildly miffed how last week's early bets turned out. I bet on Vettel to DNF (failed), and on, each way, the Red Bulls to win at 15 and 17. But one got a penalty and the other had a DNF in the race.
I think my judgement on their pace was sound, but both had bad luck. However, worth noting Ricciardo's likely to have an engine penalty. I don't think that's absolutely confirmed yet but it does seem nigh on certain. Which is a shame, because 21 to win would otherwise be rather tasty odds.
Morning, Mr.D. Apparently, Ricciardo will not receive the latest upgrade of the Renault engine, either. There's only enough for one per team that they supply, and Verstappen got it.
The upgrade may turn out to be worse than the previous version and/or unreliable. Best to go with the tried and tested?
F1: bearing in mind all three of my last early tips failed, I have three more (for those of you whose over-sized bulging wallets are causing lopsided gait syndrome): Verstappen win, 5, each way Raikkonen win FP1, 9, each way Raikkonen fastest qualifying time, 13, each way
All Ladbrokes. Whilst Vettel's clearly faster, Raikkonen's odds are too long. He also outqualified his team mate here last year, and in Monaco this year. It's a coin toss for the practice bet, but his odds are over evens to be top 3. Verstappen has had very strong performances in the last few races and Red Bull has done well at this circuit in the past.
Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.
Seriously.
Cheers.
You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
30s and better, at some points
It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.
Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night.
Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
Thanks - what am I looking at? I can see the chances but where are the odds? Happy to be proven wrong but interested to see how the odds actually moved.
The two numbers are inverse of each other, so they add up to 100%. The x axis shows the movement over time on the night.
The high point for Remain was the 93.5% chance highlighted by Mike in the graph at 22:10, so at that point Leave was a 6.5% chance, or 1 in 15.3 (1/6.5) which is (I think) a Betfair price of 16.3.
ah I see so these are the odds in percentages. Many thanks.
So must have been dreaming - is that the exchange or the sportsbook or both?
That’s the exchange price graph, which may be the one Mike alluded to upthread.
There was a discussion as to who got the best odds of the night, right at that short peak. Several here got more than 12 IIRC.
The max price would have been 15.3 (not 16.3 as I said above).
I feel a lot better because I have been feeling vaguely uneasy that I didn't get on at 30s as that would have solved a lot of problems (!!!).
A temporary coalition deal would arguably be the perfect situation for Labour. They'd have a ready made excuse to ditch, delay or water down some of the party's wilder promises, while getting enough done to placate supporters and prove that the sky won't fall in the moment they walk in No. 10. Say, a two year deal for managing Brexit to a soft landing with limited stuff that the Tories would obviously find themselves unpopular in opposing, like unfreezing public sector pay, NHS funding, etc would put them in a fairly strong position at the subsequent election when all the big promises would be wheeled out again. Then of course you'd need the tax rises, which even don't come close to paying for Corbyn's promises, but that's the bridge you have to cross after winning a majority.
I think the problem with that is .... the small parties have learnt (cf the DUP).
The smaller party gets all the blame & none of the credit in a Coalition like that.
That was true in the coalition, obviously - but if the stated purpose was to implement a soft Brexit, neither the SNP or Lib Dems could really turn it down - and there wouldn't be much blame to go around. The Lib Dems' big mistake was to totally misread the composition of their support - a large number of whom were economically similar or to the left of Labour but had fallen out with the party over the years. They got blamed because the act of going into coalition was for many a greater evil than any possible achievement because it enabled Osborne to implement his version of austerity.
Many Lib Dem supporters hated the Conservatives more than they loved Lib Dems, so stopped supporting Lib Dems once they went into coalition with the Conservatives.
Lib Dems need to spell out more clearly what they stand for to get supporters who love the Lib Dems for what they are rather than because they are opposed to Labour or Conservative.
What should the Lib Dems stand for?
a) Economic liberals. Being more liberal about freedoms and wanting lower state intervention ie like the original Gladstonian Liberals
b) Social liberals. Being social democrat and wanting more redistribution of wealth, ie like the SDP before merging with the Liberal Party or
"That ‘journey’ of his had quite a few stops along the way…"
I feel like Jared must have run over Guido’s dog or something - he’s gone after him before and is really gunning for him now. I guess it is possible he’s one of the few MPs with such fertile fields of information on his being a shit, but I feel like there must be others. Time will tell - this sort of thing definitely fills up the column inches.
I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
I liked this ... "“School mathematics curricula emphasizing terms like Pythagorean Theorem and pi perpetuate a perception that mathematics was largely developed by Greeks and other Europeans," she says, according to Campus Reform."
Kind of glossing over the importance of Arabic numerals in mathematics there.
Whilst the Arabs before the 1100's made contributions to astronomy and maths, after 1100 or so the they had to deal with Mongols from the east and Crusades from the west. One of the earliest inventors of the scientific method lived in Basra
In the west things had been more or less "dead" scientifically from about 500AD as well and the only significant invention in the west until about 1400 was an improved horse collar.
Comments
The upgrade may turn out to be worse than the previous version and/or unreliable. Best to go with the tried and tested?
Betting PostF1: bearing in mind all three of my last early tips failed, I have three more (for those of you whose over-sized bulging wallets are causing lopsided gait syndrome):
Verstappen win, 5, each way
Raikkonen win FP1, 9, each way
Raikkonen fastest qualifying time, 13, each way
All Ladbrokes. Whilst Vettel's clearly faster, Raikkonen's odds are too long. He also outqualified his team mate here last year, and in Monaco this year. It's a coin toss for the practice bet, but his odds are over evens to be top 3. Verstappen has had very strong performances in the last few races and Red Bull has done well at this circuit in the past.
King Cole, you may be right, my knowledge of Chinese history isn't great and I know they were the chaps that invented gunpowder.
NEW THREAD
Lib Dems need to spell out more clearly what they stand for to get supporters who love the Lib Dems for what they are rather than because they are opposed to Labour or Conservative.
What should the Lib Dems stand for?
a) Economic liberals. Being more liberal about freedoms and wanting lower state intervention ie like the original Gladstonian Liberals
b) Social liberals. Being social democrat and wanting more redistribution of wealth, ie like the SDP before merging with the Liberal Party or
c) Something else?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Gods-Philosophers-Medieval-Foundations-Science/dp/1848311508#productDescription_secondary_view_div_1508925343959
But be warned the author, whom I know slightly, is a Brexiteer!