I think the lack of effect leadership ratings has on the headline figure makes sense if you assume both party's polling figures are pushed up beyond the usual loyalists by opposing waves of discontent. For the Tories it's the "We voted out, now leave!" voters, who as expected came over from UKIP in the GE. They might have a very negative view of May, but see voting for the Tory Party as the only way to ensure what they'd regard as a genuine Brexit - all the way out, two fingers to Brussels, no more immigrants.
What surprised in June was this was nullified by an almost equally potent younger, liberal backlash. The switch from under 45s from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017 is astonishing - all the more so when Corbyn shouldn't be a man with much appeal to soft liberal Conservative voters. Corbyn's success has improved his standing among these voters, who didn't like him much but can stand Brexiteers even less, but doesn't get him much further. To do that, he'd have to start winning over hard Brexiteers (nope - as would fracture his coalition) or remain supporting Tory loyalists (difficult when you're a radical socialist).
So we have a stalemate, as both leaders' merits or lack thereof don't matter too much to a large section of their support. What could break it is of course if Theresa May can get a deal that in some way satisfies her band of Redwoodian lunatics or or provoke a Faragist rebellion, but isn't so economically damaging that it makes Corbynism moderated by the PLP seem like the lesser of two evils. If she fails, you'd expect the Tories to start tanking. Succeed, and Labour have hit a peak that'll gradually get chipped away at.
Based on the 1% swing to Labour since June suggested by ICM Labour would gain 22 seats in a general election tomorrow, 14 from the Tories, 7 from the SNP and 1 from PC. That would take them to 284 seats.
However the Tories would still be the largest party on 303 seats, therefore Labour would need support from both the SNP and PC and the LDs on a confidence and supply basis to form a minority government. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
If the boundary review is accepted, the Tories would start on 307 seats out of 600.
A majority yes, though that is a big if.
I think the Tories will vote for it. The question is what the DUP will do, and the Northern Ireland review hasn't been published yet so we can't know.
If the Tories can get it adjusted so the DUP are at least level pegging with SF they might support it.
You mean by calling on the services of Mr Gerry Mander?
Tut tut!
The DUP got more votes than SF!
The proposed Boundary changes would give the DUP huge, useless, majorities, and SF small, useful ones.
Part of the problem with the boundary commission was the requirement of excessively tight contituency sizes. Yes, we all agree that the current situation where the largest constituency is FIVE times bigger than the smallest is wrong.
But surely it would be better to have constituencies which represented a coherent group of people rather than trying to make them all exactly the same size. I'd have 65,000 +/- 10,000 and try and fit in with existing town and county boundaries, which would allow the boundary commission a little more leeway to respect geography and history.
Those are pretty much the figures that were always used before the current review. I think it was around 68K average with most seats between 60 and 76.
Based on the 1% swing to Labour since June suggested by ICM Labour would gain 22 seats in a general election tomorrow, 14 from the Tories, 7 from the SNP and 1 from PC. That would take them to 284 seats.
However the Tories would still be the largest party on 303 seats, therefore Labour would need support from both the SNP and PC and the LDs on a confidence and supply basis to form a minority government. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
If the boundary review is accepted, the Tories would start on 307 seats out of 600.
A majority yes, though that is a big if.
I think the Tories will vote for it. The question is what the DUP will do, and the Northern Ireland review hasn't been published yet so we can't know.
If the Tories can get it adjusted so the DUP are at least level pegging with SF they might support it.
You mean by calling on the services of Mr Gerry Mander?
Tut tut!
The DUP got more votes than SF!
The proposed Boundary changes would give the DUP huge, useless, majorities, and SF small, useful ones.
Part of the problem with the boundary commission was the requirement of excessively tight contituency sizes. Yes, we all agree that the current situation where the largest constituency is FIVE times bigger than the smallest is wrong.
But surely it would be better to have constituencies which represented a coherent group of people rather than trying to make them all exactly the same size. I'd have 65,000 +/- 10,000 and try and fit in with existing town and county boundaries, which would allow the boundary commission a little more leeway to respect geography and history.
Those are pretty much the figures that were always used before the current review. I think it was around 68K average with most seats between 60 and 76.
Most of the problems are caused by the small Welsh seats.
The Welsh and Scottish seats were always smaller than the English ones, pre-devolution.
After devolution, the Scottish seats were reformed, but -- curiously -- the Labour Party never seemed much interested in reforming the Welsh ones.
What the Tories could do is just reform the Welsh seats (coupled with a generous chunk of more powers for Wales).
Based on the 1% swing to Labour since June suggested by ICM Labour would gain 22 seats in a general election tomorrow, 14 from the Tories, 7 from the SNP and 1 from PC. That would take them to 284 seats.
However the Tories would still be the largest party on 303 seats, therefore Labour would need support from both the SNP and PC and the LDs on a confidence and supply basis to form a minority government. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
If the boundary review is accepted, the Tories would start on 307 seats out of 600.
A majority yes, though that is a big if.
I think the Tories will vote for it. The question is what the DUP will do, and the Northern Ireland review hasn't been published yet so we can't know.
If the Tories can get it adjusted so the DUP are at least level pegging with SF they might support it.
You mean by calling on the services of Mr Gerry Mander?
Tut tut!
The DUP got more votes than SF!
The proposed Boundary changes would give the DUP huge, useless, majorities, and SF small, useful ones.
Part of the problem with the boundary commission was the requirement of excessively tight contituency sizes. Yes, we all agree that the current situation where the largest constituency is FIVE times bigger than the smallest is wrong.
But surely it would be better to have constituencies which represented a coherent group of people rather than trying to make them all exactly the same size. I'd have 65,000 +/- 10,000 and try and fit in with existing town and county boundaries, which would allow the boundary commission a little more leeway to respect geography and history.
Those are pretty much the figures that were always used before the current review. I think it was around 68K average with most seats between 60 and 76.
Most experts and many politicians see the new criteria are too tight - and I expect the Commission itself is of the same view. A further reason why another review is more likely than not.
One good idea Labour have had the last couple of manifestos is a Constitutional Convention to look at a tranche of issues, although it is always a bit odd as that is suggested, but obviously they then state a preference for specific solutions in advance of said convention. If they were to recommend PR, the LDs would probably suffer a lot to get it.
except that such proposals are normally the way of not doing anything about issues you find too difficult. Look back at Labour's extensive Jenkins commission on electoral reform.
Bearing in mind how Labour gained ground in the last campaign, they are in an excellent starting position.
May had no swingback, she achieved swingaway!
The Tories .... will go on the attack on tax etc.
I have no idea how the next election campaign will pan out but I am sure of one thing. Going on the 'attack' will lose them votes. I am not too bothered by the Tories most of the time but their relentless negativity come polling time always puts me off them.
I think the lack of effect leadership ratings has on the headline figure makes sense if you assume both party's polling figures are pushed up beyond the usual loyalists by opposing waves of discontent. For the Tories it's the "We voted out, now leave!" voters, who as expected came over from UKIP in the GE. They might have a very negative view of May, but see voting for the Tory Party as the only way to ensure what they'd regard as a genuine Brexit - all the way out, two fingers to Brussels, no more immigrants.
What surprised in June was this was nullified by an almost equally potent younger, liberal backlash. The switch from under 45s from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017 is astonishing - all the more so when Corbyn shouldn't be a man with much appeal to soft liberal Conservative voters. Corbyn's success has improved his standing among these voters, who didn't like him much but can stand Brexiteers even less, but doesn't get him much further. To do that, he'd have to start winning over hard Brexiteers (nope - as would fracture his coalition) or remain supporting Tory loyalists (difficult when you're a radical socialist).
So we have a stalemate, as both leaders' merits or lack thereof don't matter too much to a large section of their support. What could break it is of course if Theresa May can get a deal that in some way satisfies her band of Redwoodian lunatics or or provoke a Faragist rebellion, but isn't so economically damaging that it makes Corbynism moderated by the PLP seem like the lesser of two evils. If she fails, you'd expect the Tories to start tanking. Succeed, and Labour have hit a peak that'll gradually get chipped away at.
I think your analysis is spot on here. The only thing is I am not sure the pro-Brexit camp is that big or that motivated. So I don't think the success bonus from exiting without a disaster will be very great.
Just got back from a rather fun road trip across Spain and Portugal, and back. On Sunday evening in Santander I saw this, and thought it may be of interest to some on here, then I read Cyclefree's recent piece. This would have been great as the "FIRST!" there.. https://imgur.com/a/EC4Ry
I think the lack of effect leadership ratings has on the headline figure makes sense if you assume both party's polling figures are pushed up beyond the usual loyalists by opposing waves of discontent. For the Tories it's the "We voted out, now leave!" voters, who as expected came over from UKIP in the GE. They might have a very negative view of May, but see voting for the Tory Party as the only way to ensure what they'd regard as a genuine Brexit - all the way out, two fingers to Brussels, no more immigrants.
What surprised in June was this was nullified by an almost equally potent younger, liberal backlash. The switch from under 45s from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017 is astonishing - all the more so when Corbyn shouldn't be a man with much appeal to soft liberal Conservative voters. Corbyn's success has improved his standing among these voters, who didn't like him much but can stand Brexiteers even less, but doesn't get him much further. To do that, he'd have to start winning over hard Brexiteers (nope - as would fracture his coalition) or remain supporting Tory loyalists (difficult when you're a radical socialist).
So we have a stalemate, as both leaders' merits or lack thereof don't matter too much to a large section of their support. What could break it is of course if Theresa May can get a deal that in some way satisfies her band of Redwoodian lunatics or or provoke a Faragist rebellion, but isn't so economically damaging that it makes Corbynism moderated by the PLP seem like the lesser of two evils. If she fails, you'd expect the Tories to start tanking. Succeed, and Labour have hit a peak that'll gradually get chipped away at.
I think your analysis is spot on here. The only thing is I am not sure the pro-Brexit camp is that big or that motivated. So I don't think the success bonus from exiting without a disaster will be very great.
Brexit was a rejection of the status quo, with support from a large contingent of those who have experienced little economic success in the past 30 years.
I don’t particularly like the way he writes, but he has a good point about a large number of PFI schemes that are inflexible and unnecessarily secretive.
Just got back from a rather fun road trip across Spain and Portugal, and back. On Sunday evening in Santander I saw this, and thought it may be of interest to some on here, then I read Cyclefree's recent piece. This would have been great as the "FIRST!" there.. https://imgur.com/a/EC4Ry
As well as financial data, the rich could also have their plastic surgery secrets revealed following another hack announced yesterday. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41735104
That's what I've been wondering about. If he's signed a form saying he can't bring the party into disrepute he should lose the whip. Not necessarily for these things 15 years ago, but for this nightclub incident that's looking worse by the hour.
Of course we know current Labour doesn't object to violent racists, or it would have done something about Momentum before this, but it still looks pretty bad if one of their own MPs is accused of brawling. Eric Joyce got thrown out for that remember.
Edit - Guido is threatening further revelations as well.
That's what I've been wondering about. If he's signed a form saying he can't bring the party into disrepute he should lose the whip. Not necessarily for these things 15 years ago, but for this nightclub incident that's looking worse by the hour.
Of course we know current Labour doesn't object to violent racists, or it would have done something about Momentum before this, but it still looks pretty bad if one of their own MPs is accused of brawling. Eric Joyce got thrown out for that remember.
Edit - Guido is threatening further revelations as well.
Ah, Eric Joyce. The start of the problems that led to Corbyn’s election as Labour leader.
Someone clearly doesn’t like Jared O’Mara, one gets the impression that Guido’s got a week’s worth of stories that make each denial more meaningless.
I think the lack of effect leadership ratings has on the headline figure makes sense if you assume both party's polling figures are pushed up beyond the usual loyalists by opposing waves of discontent. For the Tories it's the "We voted out, now leave!" voters, who as expected came over from UKIP in the GE. They might have a very negative view of May, but see voting for the Tory Party as the only way to ensure what they'd regard as a genuine Brexit - all the way out, two fingers to Brussels, no more immigrants.
What surprised in June was this was nullified by an almost equally potent younger, liberal backlash. The switch from under 45s from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017 is astonishing - all the more so when Corbyn shouldn't be a man with much appeal to soft liberal Conservative voters. Corbyn's success has improved his standing among these voters, who didn't like him much but can stand Brexiteers even less, but doesn't get him much further. To do that, he'd have to start winning over hard Brexiteers (nope - as would fracture his coalition) or remain supporting Tory loyalists (difficult when you're a radical socialist).
So we have a stalemate, as both leaders' merits or lack thereof don't matter too much to a large section of their support. What could break it is of course if Theresa May can get a deal that in some way satisfies her band of Redwoodian lunatics or or provoke a Faragist rebellion, but isn't so economically damaging that it makes Corbynism moderated by the PLP seem like the lesser of two evils. If she fails, you'd expect the Tories to start tanking. Succeed, and Labour have hit a peak that'll gradually get chipped away at.
I think your analysis is spot on here. The only thing is I am not sure the pro-Brexit camp is that big or that motivated. So I don't think the success bonus from exiting without a disaster will be very great.
Brexit was a rejection of the status quo, with support from a large contingent of those who have experienced little economic success in the past 30 years.
Success isn't all about Lattes.
No doubt that is true. Which means it wasn't actually about leaving the EU. Given that leaving the EU won't lead to any greater economic success for leave voters they won't find the process particularly satisfying and will find another focus for their discontent. Hard to see how the government of the day won't become that focus.
@AbiWilks: If I could freely choose the MP for Sheff Hallam it prob wouldn't be O'Mara, but give me him over someone who will vote with the Tories any day of the week
@AbiWilks: If I could freely choose the MP for Sheff Hallam it prob wouldn't be O'Mara, but give me him over someone who will vote with the Tories any day of the week
So they don't want Jeremy Corbyn as the candidate then?
Can't help feeling that a none of the above party would sweep the boards at the moment. Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP, all completely useless and unfit to rule in a difficult time. Politics is deeply depressing at the moment.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
I think the lack of effect leadership ratings has on the headline figure makes sense if you assume both party's polling figures are pushed up beyond the usual loyalists by opposing waves of discontent. For the Tories it's the "We voted out, now leave!" voters, who as expected came over from UKIP in the GE. They might have a very negative view of May, but see voting for the Tory Party as the only way to ensure what they'd regard as a genuine Brexit - all the way out, two fingers to Brussels, no more immigrants.
What surprised in June was this was nullified by an almost equally potent younger, liberal backlash. The switch from under 45s from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017 is astonishing - all the more so when Corbyn shouldn't be a man with much appeal to soft liberal Conservative voters. Corbyn's success has improved his standing among these voters, who didn't like him much but can stand Brexiteers even less, but doesn't get him much further. To do that, he'd have to start winning over hard Brexiteers (nope - as would fracture his coalition) or remain supporting Tory loyalists (difficult when you're a radical socialist).
So we have a stalemate, as both leaders' merits or lack thereof don't matter too much to a large section of their support. What could break it is of course if Theresa May can get a deal that in some way satisfies her band of Redwoodian lunatics or or provoke a Faragist rebellion, but isn't so economically damaging that it makes Corbynism moderated by the PLP seem like the lesser of two evils. If she fails, you'd expect the Tories to start tanking. Succeed, and Labour have hit a peak that'll gradually get chipped away at.
I think your analysis is spot on here. The only thing is I am not sure the pro-Brexit camp is that big or that motivated. So I don't think the success bonus from exiting without a disaster will be very great.
Brexit was a rejection of the status quo, with support from a large contingent of those who have experienced little economic success in the past 30 years.
Success isn't all about Lattes.
No doubt that is true. Which means it wasn't actually about leaving the EU. Given that leaving the EU won't lead to any greater economic success for leave voters they won't find the process particularly satisfying and will find another focus for their discontent. Hard to see how the government of the day won't become that focus.
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
@AbiWilks: If I could freely choose the MP for Sheff Hallam it prob wouldn't be O'Mara, but give me him over someone who will vote with the Tories any day of the week
Which neatly, if inadvertently, explains how Trump or any number of unsavoury politicians win. He may be a shit, but at least he's our shit.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
Is there a market for children? What's the going rate?
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
Is there a market for children? What's the going rate?
£50k if youre sending them to an english university
Can't help feeling that a none of the above party would sweep the boards at the moment. Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP, all completely useless and unfit to rule in a difficult time. Politics is deeply depressing at the moment.
Indeed it is. My wife asks me every day what is in the news. When the return of some actress to EastEnders features, you know there is no news. As regards Brexit, best to wait till 2018 when most of the political posturing will have given way to sensible discussion. The EU are in a fix without our contributions..
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
Is there a market for children? What's the going rate?
£50k if youre sending them to an english university
I was wondering about that. Would the price for my son be diminished by the condition his school fees of £12K a year have to be paid?
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
As regards Brexit, best to wait till 2018 when most of the political posturing will have given way to sensible discussion. The EU are in a fix without our contributions..
How many years until the fantasy of British exceptionalism wears off?
Can't help feeling that a none of the above party would sweep the boards at the moment. Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP, all completely useless and unfit to rule in a difficult time. Politics is deeply depressing at the moment.
Indeed it is. My wife asks me every day what is in the news. When the return of some actress to EastEnders features, you know there is no news. As regards Brexit, best to wait till 2018 when most of the political posturing will have given way to sensible discussion. The EU are in a fix without our contributions..
The news today seems to be focused on a squirrel getting on the pitch at the Man City game last night. We are 1 step away from 4,000 holes in Blackburn, Lancashire.
Can't help feeling that a none of the above party would sweep the boards at the moment. Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP, all completely useless and unfit to rule in a difficult time. Politics is deeply depressing at the moment.
Indeed it is. My wife asks me every day what is in the news. When the return of some actress to EastEnders features, you know there is no news. As regards Brexit, best to wait till 2018 when most of the political posturing will have given way to sensible discussion. The EU are in a fix without our contributions..
But not in as much of a fix as we are without a negotiated Brexit deal.
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
At this very moment German car manufacturers are holding a gun to Merkel's head dictating the EU's Brexit negotiation surrender terms. They are desperate for a deal.
Can't help feeling that a none of the above party would sweep the boards at the moment. Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP, all completely useless and unfit to rule in a difficult time. Politics is deeply depressing at the moment.
Indeed it is. My wife asks me every day what is in the news. When the return of some actress to EastEnders features, you know there is no news. As regards Brexit, best to wait till 2018 when most of the political posturing will have given way to sensible discussion. The EU are in a fix without our contributions..
The news today seems to be focused on a squirrel getting on the pitch at the Man City game last night. We are 1 step away from 4,000 holes in Blackburn, Lancashire.
I wonder if the legally required killing of said squirrel will be covered, since it is an offence to release a grey squirrel.
Wringing its neck on the spot would have made an interesting story.
At this very moment German car manufacturers are holding a gun to Merkel's head dictating the EU's Brexit negotiation surrender terms. They are desperate for a deal.
Well they should be. £50bn of surplus in a single year, the most they have with any single country on the planet. 1.6% of their entire GDP. What on earth would Germany do without the great British consumer?
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
In normal circumstances that is an entirely logical assessment. But Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour leader and the far left is rapidly embedding itself to ensure it continues to control the party when Corbyn stands down. This is the Tory firewall.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
At this very moment German car manufacturers are holding a gun to Merkel's head dictating the EU's Brexit negotiation surrender terms. They are desperate for a deal.
Well they should be. £50bn of surplus in a single year, the most they have with any single country on the planet. 1.6% of their entire GDP. What on earth would Germany do without the great British consumer?
The great British consumer is not going away. It will just pay more for its German products and wait longer to receive them. Any drop in sales can be made up for elsewhere inside the single market and through all the global trade deals Germany's EU membership delivers.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
It is not a very interesting article but the comments below show a dialogue of the deaf between far and centre left contributors. One minor point is that I thought the Royal Mail pension fund was already nationalised so George Osborne could use its assets as blotting paper for some red ink he'd spilt on the national balance sheet.
In normal circumstances that is an entirely logical assessment. But Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour leader and the far left is rapidly embedding itself to ensure it continues to control the party when Corbyn stands down. This is the Tory firewall.
The firewall is the fixed term parliament act. The Tories have already ceased to be in power, just sitting imprisoned in office. Less than 2 years into this parliament we leave the EU and likely get impaled on spikes at the bottom of the cliff. Corbyn isn't really relevant when there won't be an election - with the economy raining fore and brimstone on people the new Tory leader will appeal for time to stabilise things (if nothing else as a compare/contrast to ZombieMay's vainglorious election during Brexit).
The Lib dems pretty much disappeared in a puff of smoke after their "fuckmeharder!!" role in the coalition. UKIP ceased to exist as they won the referendum, with a succession of "I'm Nigel Farage, no I'M Nigel Farage and so is my wife!" successors fighting over the embers. Parties come and go, and the ones that survive evolve beyond recognition.
Today's Tory party is a long way from that of Macmillan. Corbyn leads a Labour party that is a dark mirror of New Labour. The obvious hole is for a centre party that encompasses the pro enterprise not evil wing of the Tories with the not bonkers ownership less relevant than regulation wing of Labour. All it takes is a massive political shock and the parties fracture and reshape. The kind of event that we face in 18 months...
Consolation for Corbyn too, that his party of cultists are doing rather better than they would be if the Government were functioning as it should be.
But Mr. Dancer, if the Tories turn into political magpies, picking up the shiny, appealling bits of Corbynism for the next four and a half years, what will Labour have remaining to offer the voters, other than pure essence of New Venezuela and an aggrieved look on their faces?
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
Precisely the opposite, given 80% of June 2017 Tory voters now back Leave and most put control of free movement ahead of the single market it would be political suicide for the Tories to pursue soft Brexit or to reverse Brexit and could well lead to them falling to third behind UKIP. Of course Corbyn ultimately backs hard Brexit with only the LDs the real party of soft Brexit.
Given May's concessions on money and citizens' rights she is making progress towards a FTA deal anyway.
UC will end the scandal Labour left where you can lose all your benefits for working more than 16 hours a week once the teething problems are resolved.
At this very moment German car manufacturers are holding a gun to Merkel's head dictating the EU's Brexit negotiation surrender terms. They are desperate for a deal.
Well they should be. £50bn of surplus in a single year, the most they have with any single country on the planet. 1.6% of their entire GDP. What on earth would Germany do without the great British consumer?
If German exports did drop to that degree, there is a silver lining in that it would relieve some of the strains on the EZ.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
In normal circumstances that is an entirely logical assessment. But Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour leader and the far left is rapidly embedding itself to ensure it continues to control the party when Corbyn stands down. This is the Tory firewall.
The firewall is the fixed term parliament act. The Tories have already ceased to be in power, just sitting imprisoned in office. Less than 2 years into this parliament we leave the EU and likely get impaled on spikes at the bottom of the cliff. Corbyn isn't really relevant when there won't be an election - with the economy raining fore and brimstone on people the new Tory leader will appeal for time to stabilise things (if nothing else as a compare/contrast to ZombieMay's vainglorious election during Brexit).
The Lib dems pretty much disappeared in a puff of smoke after their "fuckmeharder!!" role in the coalition. UKIP ceased to exist as they won the referendum, with a succession of "I'm Nigel Farage, no I'M Nigel Farage and so is my wife!" successors fighting over the embers. Parties come and go, and the ones that survive evolve beyond recognition.
Today's Tory party is a long way from that of Macmillan. Corbyn leads a Labour party that is a dark mirror of New Labour. The obvious hole is for a centre party that encompasses the pro enterprise not evil wing of the Tories with the not bonkers ownership less relevant than regulation wing of Labour. All it takes is a massive political shock and the parties fracture and reshape. The kind of event that we face in 18 months...
The first two paragraphs I can agree with absolutely. I struggle with the last one, though I would be delighted if it happened.
Bearing in mind how Labour gained ground in the last campaign, they are in an excellent starting position.
May had no swingback, she achieved swingaway!
The Tories .... will go on the attack on tax etc.
I have no idea how the next election campaign will pan out but I am sure of one thing. Going on the 'attack' will lose them votes. I am not too bothered by the Tories most of the time but their relentless negativity come polling time always puts me off them.
Rubbish it was going on the attack in 1992 which won them the election, they don't need to be worried about putting off people like you who would not vote Tory anyway.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.
In normal circumstances that is an entirely logical assessment. But Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour leader and the far left is rapidly embedding itself to ensure it continues to control the party when Corbyn stands down. This is the Tory firewall.
The firewall is the fixed term parliament act. The Tories have already ceased to be in power, just sitting imprisoned in office. Less than 2 years into this parliament we leave the EU and likely get impaled on spikes at the bottom of the cliff. Corbyn isn't really relevant when there won't be an election - with the economy raining fore and brimstone on people the new Tory leader will appeal for time to stabilise things (if nothing else as a compare/contrast to ZombieMay's vainglorious election during Brexit).
The Lib dems pretty much disappeared in a puff of smoke after their "fuckmeharder!!" role in the coalition. UKIP ceased to exist as they won the referendum, with a succession of "I'm Nigel Farage, no I'M Nigel Farage and so is my wife!" successors fighting over the embers. Parties come and go, and the ones that survive evolve beyond recognition.
Today's Tory party is a long way from that of Macmillan. Corbyn leads a Labour party that is a dark mirror of New Labour. The obvious hole is for a centre party that encompasses the pro enterprise not evil wing of the Tories with the not bonkers ownership less relevant than regulation wing of Labour. All it takes is a massive political shock and the parties fracture and reshape. The kind of event that we face in 18 months...
FPTP is giving us Weak and Stable government and opposition.
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
Precisely the opposite, given 80% of June 2017 Tory voters now back Leave and most put control of free movement ahead of the single market it would be political suicide for the Tories to pursue soft Brexit or to reverse Brexit and could well lead to them falling to third behind UKIP. Of course Corbyn ultimately backs hard Brexit with only the LDs the real party of soft Brexit.
Given May's concessions on money and citizens' rights she is making progress towards a FTA deal anyway.
UC will end the scandal Labour left where you can lose all your benefits for working more than 16 hours a week once the teething problems are resolved.
The point is that a good percentage of those Tory voters will find that the reality of Brexit does not match their fantasy. Some will go further right, blaming the fainthearts, others will be appalled at the economic damage.
I don't think the Tories will split. They are an abzorballoth, but they are likely to atrophy. I cannnot see a LD revival under Cable happening, so we are left with PM Corbyn. I dont think he will be as bad as many here make out, inded there will be many social improvements
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.
Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.
Tories again trying to show they thought The Thick of It was a documentary on political spin
@hannahrosewoods: Jo Johnson on radio 4 insisting that Chris Heaton-Harris' Brexit letter to VCs was an "academic enquiry", as he's writing a forthcoming book
I think your analysis is spot on here. The only thing is I am not sure the pro-Brexit camp is that big or that motivated. So I don't think the success bonus from exiting without a disaster will be very great.
Broadly agree too, though I think there's a bloc of voters who feel Brexit is turning out a mess and will respond gratefully if May pulls out any old deal: I really expect a significant Tory boost if that happens. If things then go sour, it will of course melt away and more. Essentially the Tories own Brexit, even for people with no strong views.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
I tend to agree. 2017 was Corbyn's high-tide, unimpeded as it was by any Conservative sea defences.
The Tories aren't going to have two stinkers in a row. As long as Brexit doesn't result in us returning to sea-shells for currency and eating tree-bark to survive, then those who wanted Brexit will give the Tories some credit for delivering it - and those who wanted us to Remain will be searching around for someone to blame for not stopping it. Step forward Jeremy Corbyn...
Is the British consumer really going to save Brexit? At my company we have a specifuc strategy to move away from relying on British revenue. British consumers are up to ther eyeballs in debt and the Government is having to squeeze costs to a minimum just to keep the books looking average. At the same time the Government is desperateky seeking money.
This week I had HMRC on the phone threatening to wind up my company because we had not paid a single PAYE sum which we had not paid beacuse it was wrong. The dispute flag had been removed without notice. In the end we have had to pay the bill and claim back the £10k they owe us. This level of bullying I have never seen in 20 years.
At the same time Lloysd which is a useless bank decided to remove our £15k overdraft which is less than one day revenue and we almost never use. When asked why they said credit control! This despite them having first rights on company assets worth maybe a £1m and our order book being at its highest level ever due to exports.
I guess what I am saying is that in the real world of business things are starting to fall to bits and the economy may be the next big story.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
'Diminished in the eyes of the world'? A world where a neo Fascist got a third of French votes, a far right party got 13% of German votes and came second in the Netherlands, a Spanish PM is taking his country to the brink of civil war, a nationalist protectionist is US president and his most likely 2020 rival a populist anti business Democrat, where New Zealand now has the leader of an anti immigration party as its Foreign Minister, where Austria is about to have a far right party enter government and where Greece has a populist left PM? That world?
@PeterMannionMP: Jo Johnson, universities minister, all but saying Chris Heaton-Harris will stop his letter writing and stick to tweeting bad jokes #R4Today
@RobDotHutton: @BBCr4today "Chris Heaton-Harris is able to speak for himself better than I can," Jo Johnson says, in a tone that suggests he wishes he would.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.
Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
I can se a Corbyn majority fairly easily. The combination of youthful resentment of inequality, and anger with the Tories at Dogs Dinner Brexit can easily bring the sort of swing needed.
Nothing is too ludicrous in these political times.
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
Precisely the opposite, given 80% of June 2017 Tory voters now back Leave and most put control of free movement ahead of the single market it would be political suicide for the Tories to pursue soft Brexit or to reverse Brexit and could well lead to them falling to third behind UKIP. Of course Corbyn ultimately backs hard Brexit with only the LDs the real party of soft Brexit.
Given May's concessions on money and citizens' rights she is making progress towards a FTA deal anyway.
UC will end the scandal Labour left where you can lose all your benefits for working more than 16 hours a week once the teething problems are resolved.
The point is that a good percentage of those Tory voters will find that the reality of Brexit does not match their fantasy. Some will go further right, blaming the fainthearts, others will be appalled at the economic damage.
I don't think the Tories will split. They are an abzorballoth, but they are likely to atrophy. I cannnot see a LD revival under Cable happening, so we are left with PM Corbyn. I dont think he will be as bad as many here make out, inded there will be many social improvements
Most Leavers voted to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration, it was Remainers who put the economy first.
At this very moment German car manufacturers are holding a gun to Merkel's head dictating the EU's Brexit negotiation surrender terms. They are desperate for a deal.
Well they should be. £50bn of surplus in a single year, the most they have with any single country on the planet. 1.6% of their entire GDP. What on earth would Germany do without the great British consumer?
If German exports did drop to that degree, there is a silver lining in that it would relieve some of the strains on the EZ.
Even the hardest of Brexits will not involve Liam Fox barring all imports from Germany.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.
Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine. You and yours have your EU citizenship and the chance to get away. I have a share in a growing business that has no dependency on British sales. So don't despair. But the UK is in a very bad place and it is not going to get much better for a long time.
of course we;ll be fine, all that;s happening is the political mould of the last 50 years has been rejected by the electorate and we're looking for a new one
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
Yep, there will be a portion of society forever shielded from the harsh realities of everyday life. Contributors to PB are largely part of that portion. You and I certainly are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even I can envisage a calamity so dire that it will deliver a Corbyn-led Labour majority government. Brexit may well cost the Tories power, but it will not deliver it in any meaningful way to Jezza.
At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.
Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.
Corbyn would be the weakest PM since WW2 then.
Weaker than May? not possible.
Corbyn would likely have fewer MPs than May and be reliant on multiple parties for confidence and supply not just one.
FPT: Following up on the Josh Walker 'terrorism' case about the document found under his bed. He has my sympathy, and I think a lot of the problem is in our laws. There is something wrong.
The Terrorism Acts (several?) are surely some of the more nastily paranoic of New Labour's laws, others being RIPA, DNA databases extending beyond anything else in the world, 90 day detention, parts of vetting and barring, secret courts, proceeds of crime, and more. To be fair TM has also done her fair share of these, imo particularly pandering to 'victim' groups, but is more rational.
I am referrng to the Terrorism Act 2000.
The Nottingham Two were a couple of university researchers arrested on suspicion of "commission, preparation or instigation of an act of terrorism". The offence was downloading and reading a document from the USA DoJ website, which could also be bought from Amazon - a terrorism training manual, but one that the USA considered worthy of open debate - while preparing a PhD proposal.
The farrago later involved people leaving jobs, fabrication of evidence, a cowardly response from the University, and £20k of compensation.
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
Precisely the opposite, given 80%
UC will end the scandal Labour left where you can lose all your benefits for working more than 16 hours a week once the teething problems are resolved.
The point is that a good percentage of those Tory voters will find that the reality of Brexit does not match their fantasy. Some will go further right, blaming the fainthearts, others will be appalled at the economic damage.
I don't think the Tories will split. They are an abzorballoth, but they are likely to atrophy. I cannnot see a LD revival under Cable happening, so we are left with PM Corbyn. I dont think he will be as bad as many here make out, inded there will be many social improvements
Most Leavers voted to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration, it was Remainers who put the economy first.
They will be angry both at delusions of sovereignty and lack of change in immigration. We saw that in last Thursdays vox pop on Newsnight.
Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.
I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
Precisely the opposite, given 80%
UC will end the scandal Labour left where you can lose all your benefits for working more than 16 hours a week once the teething problems are resolved.
The point is that a good percentage of those Tory voters will find that the reality of Brexit does not match their fantasy. Some will go further right, blaming the fainthearts, others will be appalled at the economic damage.
I don't think the Tories will split. They are an abzorballoth, but they are likely to atrophy. I cannnot see a LD revival under Cable happening, so we are left with PM Corbyn. I dont think he will be as bad as many here make out, inded there will be many social improvements
Most Leavers voted to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration, it was Remainers who put the economy first.
They will be angry both at delusions of sovereignty and lack of change in immigration. We saw that in last Thursdays vox pop on Newsnight.
Appetites have been created that cannot be met.
Free movement is still ending for a points system and we are still leaving the EU and single market, just trying for a FTA
I can see a Corbyn majority fairly easily. The combination of youthful resentment of inequality, and anger with the Tories at Dogs Dinner Brexit can easily bring the sort of swing needed.
That's already priced in to Labour's current polling.
Who else are Labour going to find to rally to their New Venezuela flag?
Is the British consumer really going to save Brexit? At my company we have a specifuc strategy to move away from relying on British revenue. British consumers are up to ther eyeballs in debt and the Government is having to squeeze costs to a minimum just to keep the books looking average. At the same time the Government is desperateky seeking money.
This week I had HMRC on the phone threatening to wind up my company because we had not paid a single PAYE sum which we had not paid beacuse it was wrong. The dispute flag had been removed without notice. In the end we have had to pay the bill and claim back the £10k they owe us. This level of bullying I have never seen in 20 years.
At the same time Lloysd which is a useless bank decided to remove our £15k overdraft which is less than one day revenue and we almost never use. When asked why they said credit control! This despite them having first rights on company assets worth maybe a £1m and our order book being at its highest level ever due to exports.
I guess what I am saying is that in the real world of business things are starting to fall to bits and the economy may be the next big story.
Morning all,
Useful to hear from the front line, now I am out of running a small business.
I do wonder what the Bank of England's regional agents are starting to hear as they do their rounds and surveys.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
were dooomed were doomed
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
We'll be fine.long time.
of new one
ironically concerns
but emerges
Yep, are.
But not shielded from Corbynism....
Not even meaningful way to Jezza.
At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.
Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.
Corbyn would be the weakest PM since WW2 then.
He'd be strong inside his own party, unlike May; but would not have a de facto majority, unlike May - though the SNP would find it politically impossible to vote against a Labour government's budget or do anything that may be seen to help the Tories. That said, also unlike May, I think Corbyn would quite relish being voted down and having to go to the country again. Creative destruction is a very far left kind of thing. Uncertainty in politics breeds uncertainty in the markets and uncertainty in the markets creates opportunities - for hedge funds and politicians.
I think it's a mistake to assume that people who voted Leave didn't really mean it, and are now unhappy about Brexit.
They'll be unhappy when the economy crashes and whilst it's them out of work and starving they still see idiots like Redwood on TV saying hard Brexit has been a great success
I think it's a mistake to assume that people who voted Leave didn't really mean it, and are now unhappy about Brexit.
It's a bigger mistake to assume they will accept any level of economic harm as a result
There might even be a trillion quid of government borrowing, a £115bn current account deficit, multiple manufacturing recessions, falling home ownership, students £50k in debt and a decade of stagnant productivity and wages.
Sad and ironic final paragraph about controlling the press, though. Yesterday's article on him had a single line at the end about a crackdown on free speech and human rights. I might've missed it, but didn't see a corresponding comment in today's article.
I think it's a mistake to assume that people who voted Leave didn't really mean it, and are now unhappy about Brexit.
It's a bigger mistake to assume they will accept any level of economic harm as a result
At least some Leave voters must have bought the Boris bluster that all the doom and gloom was Project Fear and that leaving would be easy as squeezing a lemon and the economy would not suffer.
Not all of them obviously, many knew it would hit us but decided immigration control was more important. But some must have bought into the fantasy and they are not going to be happy.
Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.
I think your view of the far left (to use your term) is too undifferentiated: there are at least three types, and I know quite a few of each.
There's the angry type who shows up a lot on social media - Tories are scum, LibDems are traitors, etc. They would hate a deal with the LibDems. They are however very far and few between in Parliament.
There's the starry-eyed idealist type - generally mild in manner but inflexible in beliefs - Jeremy is the obvious example (I'm another, these days). They make compromises if necessary to achieve the things that matter most to them- thus Jeremy is not insistent on Trident or NATO or the Royal Family since they aren't the issues that drive him (social justice, public services, racial harmony).
And there's the hard-headed pragmatists, who adjust their stances without too many inhibitions to do what's necessary. John McDonnell will in my view turn out to be one of those.
Conclusion: if an election produces a situation where Labour can govern, but only by a deal with the LibDems and SNP, it will happen. Curiously, though, it'll be harder for the Tories to portray it as Corbyn in Sturgeon's or Cable's pocket, partly because Corbyn doesn't really fit the subservient image and partly because the DUP deal has rather blown that argument anyway.
Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.
Until Britain accepts that it has to live within its means the storm will not pass.
And neither the supporters of the Osborne rentier economy nor the Corbyn statist economy will ever accept that.
I think it's a mistake to assume that people who voted Leave didn't really mean it, and are now unhappy about Brexit.
They'll be unhappy when the economy crashes and whilst it's them out of work and starving they still see idiots like Redwood on TV saying hard Brexit has been a great success
I'm not expecting an economic crash. I do expect a deal to done which, if it doesn't contain everything I want, will be acceptable.
Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.
Seriously.
Cheers.
You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
Comments
What surprised in June was this was nullified by an almost equally potent younger, liberal backlash. The switch from under 45s from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017 is astonishing - all the more so when Corbyn shouldn't be a man with much appeal to soft liberal Conservative voters. Corbyn's success has improved his standing among these voters, who didn't like him much but can stand Brexiteers even less, but doesn't get him much further. To do that, he'd have to start winning over hard Brexiteers (nope - as would fracture his coalition) or remain supporting Tory loyalists (difficult when you're a radical socialist).
So we have a stalemate, as both leaders' merits or lack thereof don't matter too much to a large section of their support. What could break it is of course if Theresa May can get a deal that in some way satisfies her band of Redwoodian lunatics or or provoke a Faragist rebellion, but isn't so economically damaging that it makes Corbynism moderated by the PLP seem like the lesser of two evils. If she fails, you'd expect the Tories to start tanking. Succeed, and Labour have hit a peak that'll gradually get chipped away at.
The Welsh and Scottish seats were always smaller than the English ones, pre-devolution.
After devolution, the Scottish seats were reformed, but -- curiously -- the Labour Party never seemed much interested in reforming the Welsh ones.
What the Tories could do is just reform the Welsh seats (coupled with a generous chunk of more powers for Wales).
https://www.caymancompass.com/2017/10/24/appleby-confirms-data-breach/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/24/sheffield-state-corporate-power-subvert-democracy-pfi
Success isn't all about Lattes.
failed in what way?
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41740237
https://twitter.com/dunkeIdbridge/status/922881386142425088
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41735104
Of course we know current Labour doesn't object to violent racists, or it would have done something about Momentum before this, but it still looks pretty bad if one of their own MPs is accused of brawling. Eric Joyce got thrown out for that remember.
Edit - Guido is threatening further revelations as well.
Someone clearly doesn’t like Jared O’Mara, one gets the impression that Guido’s got a week’s worth of stories that make each denial more meaningless.
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/923069109822160896
Oh...
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/10/22/labour-the-new-stupid-party/
Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/europa-wartet-nicht-auf-jamaika-15262328.html
sell your children, hide in a cave etc
It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.
ironically the old mould could have kept going if the politicos had just listened a bit to the electorate and taken on board their concerns
but they didnt, so they shot thmselves in the foot and now things must change until a new consensus emerges
At this very moment German car manufacturers are holding a gun to Merkel's head dictating the EU's Brexit negotiation surrender terms. They are desperate for a deal.
Wringing its neck on the spot would have made an interesting story.
Consolation for Corbyn too, that his party of cultists are doing rather better than they would be if the Government were functioning as it should be.
The Lib dems pretty much disappeared in a puff of smoke after their "fuckmeharder!!" role in the coalition. UKIP ceased to exist as they won the referendum, with a succession of "I'm Nigel Farage, no I'M Nigel Farage and so is my wife!" successors fighting over the embers. Parties come and go, and the ones that survive evolve beyond recognition.
Today's Tory party is a long way from that of Macmillan. Corbyn leads a Labour party that is a dark mirror of New Labour. The obvious hole is for a centre party that encompasses the pro enterprise not evil wing of the Tories with the not bonkers ownership less relevant than regulation wing of Labour. All it takes is a massive political shock and the parties fracture and reshape. The kind of event that we face in 18 months...
Given May's concessions on money and citizens' rights she is making progress towards a FTA deal anyway.
UC will end the scandal Labour left where you can lose all your benefits for working more than 16 hours a week once the teething problems are resolved.
I don't think the Tories will split. They are an abzorballoth, but they are likely to atrophy. I cannnot see a LD revival under Cable happening, so we are left with PM Corbyn. I dont think he will be as bad as many here make out, inded there will be many social improvements
@hannahrosewoods: Jo Johnson on radio 4 insisting that Chris Heaton-Harris' Brexit letter to VCs was an "academic enquiry", as he's writing a forthcoming book
The Tories aren't going to have two stinkers in a row. As long as Brexit doesn't result in us returning to sea-shells for currency and eating tree-bark to survive, then those who wanted Brexit will give the Tories some credit for delivering it - and those who wanted us to Remain will be searching around for someone to blame for not stopping it. Step forward Jeremy Corbyn...
This week I had HMRC on the phone threatening to wind up my company because we had not paid a single PAYE sum which we had not paid beacuse it was wrong. The dispute flag had been removed without notice. In the end we have had to pay the bill and claim back the £10k they owe us. This level of bullying I have never seen in 20 years.
At the same time Lloysd which is a useless bank decided to remove our £15k overdraft which is less than one day revenue and we almost never use. When asked why they said credit control! This despite them having first rights on company assets worth maybe a £1m and our order book being at its highest level ever due to exports.
I guess what I am saying is that in the real world of business things are starting to fall to bits and the economy may be the next big story.
@RobDotHutton: @BBCr4today "Chris Heaton-Harris is able to speak for himself better than I can," Jo Johnson says, in a tone that suggests he wishes he would.
Nothing is too ludicrous in these political times.
The Terrorism Acts (several?) are surely some of the more nastily paranoic of New Labour's laws, others being RIPA, DNA databases extending beyond anything else in the world, 90 day detention, parts of vetting and barring, secret courts, proceeds of crime, and more. To be fair TM has also done her fair share of these, imo particularly pandering to 'victim' groups, but is more rational.
I am referrng to the Terrorism Act 2000.
The Nottingham Two were a couple of university researchers arrested on suspicion of "commission, preparation or instigation of an act of terrorism". The offence was downloading and reading a document from the USA DoJ website, which could also be bought from Amazon - a terrorism training manual, but one that the USA considered worthy of open debate - while preparing a PhD proposal.
The farrago later involved people leaving jobs, fabrication of evidence, a cowardly response from the University, and £20k of compensation.
Wiki account:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nottingham_Two
Appetites have been created that cannot be met.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/10/24/white-privilege-bolstered-by-teaching-math-university-professor-says.amp.html
Who else are Labour going to find to rally to their New Venezuela flag?
I think it's a mistake to assume that people who voted Leave didn't really mean it, and are now unhappy about Brexit.
I have a teaching conference today (
Useful to hear from the front line, now I am out of running a small business.
I do wonder what the Bank of England's regional agents are starting to hear as they do their rounds and surveys.
Oh wait, that's what we've already had.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-41743804
Sad and ironic final paragraph about controlling the press, though. Yesterday's article on him had a single line at the end about a crackdown on free speech and human rights. I might've missed it, but didn't see a corresponding comment in today's article.
Not all of them obviously, many knew it would hit us but decided immigration control was more important. But some must have bought into the fantasy and they are not going to be happy.
There's the angry type who shows up a lot on social media - Tories are scum, LibDems are traitors, etc. They would hate a deal with the LibDems. They are however very far and few between in Parliament.
There's the starry-eyed idealist type - generally mild in manner but inflexible in beliefs - Jeremy is the obvious example (I'm another, these days). They make compromises if necessary to achieve the things that matter most to them- thus Jeremy is not insistent on Trident or NATO or the Royal Family since they aren't the issues that drive him (social justice, public services, racial harmony).
And there's the hard-headed pragmatists, who adjust their stances without too many inhibitions to do what's necessary. John McDonnell will in my view turn out to be one of those.
Conclusion: if an election produces a situation where Labour can govern, but only by a deal with the LibDems and SNP, it will happen. Curiously, though, it'll be harder for the Tories to portray it as Corbyn in Sturgeon's or Cable's pocket, partly because Corbyn doesn't really fit the subservient image and partly because the DUP deal has rather blown that argument anyway.
Seriously.
And neither the supporters of the Osborne rentier economy nor the Corbyn statist economy will ever accept that.
You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.