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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Consolation for Theresa – in spite of the Tory turmoil LAB isn

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: perusing the markets early. Mildly miffed how last week's early bets turned out. I bet on Vettel to DNF (failed), and on, each way, the Red Bulls to win at 15 and 17. But one got a penalty and the other had a DNF in the race.

    I think my judgement on their pace was sound, but both had bad luck. However, worth noting Ricciardo's likely to have an engine penalty. I don't think that's absolutely confirmed yet but it does seem nigh on certain. Which is a shame, because 21 to win would otherwise be rather tasty odds.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I can see a Corbyn majority fairly easily. The combination of youthful resentment of inequality, and anger with the Tories at Dogs Dinner Brexit can easily bring the sort of swing needed.

    That's already priced in to Labour's current polling.

    Who else are Labour going to find to rally to their New Venezuela flag?

    It might be that many previous conservative voters , just sit on their hands.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited October 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    I think it's a mistake to assume that people who voted Leave didn't really mean it, and are now unhappy about Brexit.

    They'll be unhappy when the economy crashes and whilst it's them out of work and starving they still see idiots like Redwood on TV saying hard Brexit has been a great success
    I'm not expecting an economic crash. I do expect a deal to done which, if it doesn't contain everything I want, will be acceptable.
    I feel the same. The idea that Leavers are going to give up on Brexit because we don't get our particular flavour of it is nonsense.

    EDIT Actually, I wouldn't put it past North pere et fils.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609



    Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.

    I think your view of the far left (to use your term) is too undifferentiated: there are at least three types, and I know quite a few of each.

    There's the angry type who shows up a lot on social media - Tories are scum, LibDems are traitors, etc. They would hate a deal with the LibDems. They are however very far and few between in Parliament.

    There's the starry-eyed idealist type - generally mild in manner but inflexible in beliefs - Jeremy is the obvious example (I'm another, these days). They make compromises if necessary to achieve the things that matter most to them- thus Jeremy is not insistent on Trident or NATO or the Royal Family since they aren't the issues that drive him (social justice, public services, racial harmony).

    And there's the hard-headed pragmatists, who adjust their stances without too many inhibitions to do what's necessary. John McDonnell will in my view turn out to be one of those.

    Conclusion: if an election produces a situation where Labour can govern, but only by a deal with the LibDems and SNP, it will happen. Curiously, though, it'll be harder for the Tories to portray it as Corbyn in Sturgeon's or Cable's pocket, partly because Corbyn doesn't really fit the subservient image and partly because the DUP deal has rather blown that argument anyway.
    It would make the Tories effectively the only party of opposition though
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. F, ha, I did originally write of cismale patriarchy :p

    As an aside, and perhaps unsurprisingly, the race this weekend, and qualifying, is expected to be dry throughout.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'm not really sure how one could do science, accounting, architecture, engineering etc. without a working knowledge of maths.
    Indeed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    HYUFD said:
    They are all madder than a box of frogs thrown down a flight of stairs.

    I have a teaching conference today ( :D ) - dis gun be gud
    Also not sure if she asked her Asian students given East Asians are the best at maths?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Goodness me, the centre left is feeling gloomy this morning:

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/10/22/labour-the-new-stupid-party/

    Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.

    These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.

    were dooomed were doomed

    sell your children, hide in a cave etc

    We'll be fine.long time.

    of new one

    ironically concerns

    but emerges

    Yep, are.

    But not shielded from Corbynism....

    Not even meaningful way to Jezza.

    At the moment it would be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs in all probability if there was an election tomorrow and the Tories would likely win most seats.

    Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.

    Corbyn would be the weakest PM since WW2 then.

    He'd be strong inside his own party, unlike May; but would not have a de facto majority, unlike May - though the SNP would find it politically impossible to vote against a Labour government's budget or do anything that may be seen to help the Tories. That said, also unlike May, I think Corbyn would quite relish being voted down and having to go to the country again. Creative destruction is a very far left kind of thing. Uncertainty in politics breeds uncertainty in the markets and uncertainty in the markets creates opportunities - for hedge funds and politicians.

    Even if he did he still may not get a working majority as Wilson failed to in October 1974.
  • Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'm not really sure how one could do science, accounting, architecture, engineering etc. without a working knowledge of maths.
    Doubtless such things are viewed as the 'tools of oppression' in certain circles.


  • Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.

    I think your view of the far left (to use your term) is too undifferentiated: there are at least three types, and I know quite a few of each.

    There's the angry type who shows up a lot on social media - Tories are scum, LibDems are traitors, etc. They would hate a deal with the LibDems. They are however very far and few between in Parliament.

    There's the starry-eyed idealist type - generally mild in manner but inflexible in beliefs - Jeremy is the obvious example (I'm another, these days). They make compromises if necessary to achieve the things that matter most to them- thus Jeremy is not insistent on Trident or NATO or the Royal Family since they aren't the issues that drive him (social justice, public services, racial harmony).

    And there's the hard-headed pragmatists, who adjust their stances without too many inhibitions to do what's necessary. John McDonnell will in my view turn out to be one of those.

    Conclusion: if an election produces a situation where Labour can govern, but only by a deal with the LibDems and SNP, it will happen. Curiously, though, it'll be harder for the Tories to portray it as Corbyn in Sturgeon's or Cable's pocket, partly because Corbyn doesn't really fit the subservient image and partly because the DUP deal has rather blown that argument anyway.

    I disagree - I think that Corbyn and McDonnell would run a mile from formal deals with either the SNP or the LibDems, the latter especially. However, I agree on pockets - again, especially for the SNP. It would be impossible for them to do anything that might be seen as enabling the Tories. Labour would have them over a barrel.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    They are all madder than a box of frogs thrown down a flight of stairs.

    I have a teaching conference today ( :D ) - dis gun be gud
    Also not sure if she asked her Asian students given East Asians are the best at maths?
    East Asians are also the group that is hardest hit by affirmative action. They have to obtain better scores than Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics, in order to go to top universities.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    edited October 2017
    Mr. Richard, we'd all be free and equal if it weren't for the racist white supremacists perpetuating wooden hammerbeams and flying buttresses! Death to the toxic masculinity of Ionic columns!

    Edited extra bit: for the record, Ionic columns are my favourite kind. Huzzah for swirling volutes!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    edited October 2017

    F1: perusing the markets early. Mildly miffed how last week's early bets turned out. I bet on Vettel to DNF (failed), and on, each way, the Red Bulls to win at 15 and 17. But one got a penalty and the other had a DNF in the race.

    I think my judgement on their pace was sound, but both had bad luck. However, worth noting Ricciardo's likely to have an engine penalty. I don't think that's absolutely confirmed yet but it does seem nigh on certain. Which is a shame, because 21 to win would otherwise be rather tasty odds.

    I was just looking through the couple of previous races, and am reminded that last year the Red Bulls qualified ahead of the Ferraris. It’s a highly unusual track because of the altitude of over 7,000’ which does some very weird things to the cars - they run well over 360kph on the straight despite the cars looking like they’re set up for the streets of Monaco.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    Scott_P said:

    @PeterMannionMP: Jo Johnson, universities minister, all but saying Chris Heaton-Harris will stop his letter writing and stick to tweeting bad jokes #R4Today

    @RobDotHutton: @BBCr4today "Chris Heaton-Harris is able to speak for himself better than I can," Jo Johnson says, in a tone that suggests he wishes he would.

    No No you don't understand; he was acting perfectly legitimately for, what was it that PB's collective moment of madness had it yesterday? Academic research.

    Nothing to worry about, move on.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    F1: perusing the markets early. Mildly miffed how last week's early bets turned out. I bet on Vettel to DNF (failed), and on, each way, the Red Bulls to win at 15 and 17. But one got a penalty and the other had a DNF in the race.

    I think my judgement on their pace was sound, but both had bad luck. However, worth noting Ricciardo's likely to have an engine penalty. I don't think that's absolutely confirmed yet but it does seem nigh on certain. Which is a shame, because 21 to win would otherwise be rather tasty odds.

    The other day we were wondering how often Hamilton won from pole position. Usually, according to the BBC graphs from 2nd September (so you'd need to update them from Italy onwards):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/41003336
  • Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    Maybe the remainers of south west London are avoiding putting money on it!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Sandpit, yeah, an article I read the other day said that despite long straights they have huge downforce levels. I am looking mostly at Red Bull and Ferrari. However, I have so many early bet ideas I might end up throwing down a pound on each :p

    Mr. L, thanks for that link. Still a very high percentage (must be about 47%) of non-pole wins. However, we should also remember that unlike every other top driver, Hamilton has had a race-winning (capable, at least) car every single year he's driven. Schumacher, Vettel and Alonso did not have that.
  • Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Indeed Brexit will become the new "status quo" that voters react against. No way will the Tories get electoral benefit from this car crash, and they know it, which is why they look so shell shocked.

    I've been saying for a while that the hard Brexit loons infesting the Tory party will literally bring about the end of their party. All the evidence - both direct and implied (the non-release of the government assesment) - points to hard Brexit no deal being an economic catastrophe. Leave voters mainly envisaged something better with their leave vote. When it transpires that it brought about their own destruction- coupled with the reams of leaked expose in the papers about how Tory ministers how appeared to have no clue during the negotiations really did have no clue during the negotiations - the Tories are finished.

    It's the splat of hubris and rhetoric against the wall of reality. The Tories have a tendency for delusion - an early polotocal memory was Thatcher and her ministers on TV denying that the Community Charge was causing anyone problems, back to back with reportage of the Poll Tax reducing rate payers to poverty. The same behaviour now with US and disability assessments. And of course Brexit. Where telling the foreigner to go whistle defi Italy delivers for us a better free trade deal than the completely free trade deal we currently have.

    In normal circumstances that is an entirely logical assessment. But Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour leader and the far left is rapidly embedding itself to ensure it continues to control the party when Corbyn stands down. This is the Tory firewall.
    The difficulty I find with your argument (and that of many of the more rabid PBtories on here) is that what you term the "far left" is now more to the centre than you would like to believe. The pendulum has swung from the right (where you have long considered that was it was the natural place for it to be). Whether it will ever swing back in your direction again as the electorate "regain their collective sanity" as you would probably put it, is looking more and more, due to the increasing fracturedness of the Conservative Party, as becoming extremely unlikely.
  • Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    If it wins by as much I will be delighted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    Classic
  • Sandpit said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    Maybe the remainers of south west London are avoiding putting money on it!
    Well the race is at Kempton, which is due to close down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    They are all madder than a box of frogs thrown down a flight of stairs.

    I have a teaching conference today ( :D ) - dis gun be gud
    Also not sure if she asked her Asian students given East Asians are the best at maths?
    East Asians are also the group that is hardest hit by affirmative action. They have to obtain better scores than Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics, in order to go to top universities.
    Yes no logic in affirmative action.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    Universities are going completely bonkers. Mathematics is the basis of science, and nothing can change that.

    Also, there’s a huge effort going on in the Western world to get young people - especially young ladies - interested in STEM subjects. Stupid idiots like this completely undermine all those efforts.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited October 2017
    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Sandpit said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    Maybe the remainers of south west London are avoiding putting money on it!
    Well the race is at Kempton, which is due to close down.
    That’s sad to hear. I once had a contract for a couple of years at an office almost next door along the A316.

    Many sneaky afternoons spent at the Tote once the bosses had left work early to spend time in the hospitality with the customers and suppliers. ;)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382



    Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.

    I think your view of the far left (to use your term) is too undifferentiated: there are at least three types, and I know quite a few of each.

    There's the angry type who shows up a lot on social media - Tories are scum, LibDems are traitors, etc. They would hate a deal with the LibDems. They are however very far and few between in Parliament.

    There's the starry-eyed idealist type - generally mild in manner but inflexible in beliefs - Jeremy is the obvious example (I'm another, these days). They make compromises if necessary to achieve the things that matter most to them- thus Jeremy is not insistent on Trident or NATO or the Royal Family since they aren't the issues that drive him (social justice, public services, racial harmony).

    And there's the hard-headed pragmatists, who adjust their stances without too many inhibitions to do what's necessary. John McDonnell will in my view turn out to be one of those.

    Conclusion: if an election produces a situation where Labour can govern, but only by a deal with the LibDems and SNP, it will happen. Curiously, though, it'll be harder for the Tories to portray it as Corbyn in Sturgeon's or Cable's pocket, partly because Corbyn doesn't really fit the subservient image and partly because the DUP deal has rather blown that argument anyway.

    I disagree - I think that Corbyn and McDonnell would run a mile from formal deals with either the SNP or the LibDems, the latter especially. However, I agree on pockets - again, especially for the SNP. It would be impossible for them to do anything that might be seen as enabling the Tories. Labour would have them over a barrel.

    SO at least Spurs at the moment are doing well in Europe.I was very impressed with them against Real Madrid .Hopefully after the result against Liverpool , results will improve at Wembley.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,811

    More interesting stuff on Xi Jinping:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-41743804

    Sad and ironic final paragraph about controlling the press, though. Yesterday's article on him had a single line at the end about a crackdown on free speech and human rights. I might've missed it, but didn't see a corresponding comment in today's article.

    He has achieved an impressive level of personal power and control in a few years, when I had tgoughboart if the Chinese System now was in part to prevent dominance by one person. The tightening grip of state control is depressing though. The communist party there really is just a new nobility, albeit with a better chance of rising through it.
  • TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    Were you really offering 30s ???
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. kle4, well... medieval nobility did have plenty of scope for advancement. William Marshal went from being a minor knight to regent of England.

    Xi went against the unwritten understanding that there wouldn't be purging/corruption trials against senior figures in the party, in order to prevent internal bloodletting as happened a few decades ago. He's also beefed up the military.

    More state control probably won't be enough to derail the economic trend, but it won't help.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    Sad to hear that.I think the UK is still a wonderful place to live, and York especially , I feel I am very lucky to have been born here.To me it still feels less divisive than the 1980s , however I realise that can change.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    Were you really offering 30s ???
    LOL. A couple of weeks before the vote I was on the No.19 bus and the driver told me to lower my sterling exposure and to rebalance my portfolio in favour of non-UK assets which would act as a hedge against the likely fall in sterling should we Brexit (and would ride the wave should we vote to stay in).

    The decent five figure sum I made on the night on Betfair, PP, and William Hill (lowest odds of 5-1) was just icing on the cake.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
  • There is no groundswell for Corbyn. But there is a general air of discontent and upset, due to Brexit and stagnating living standards.

    But I doubt this translates into votes for radical socialism.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    Maybe the remainers of south west London are avoiding putting money on it!
    Well the race is at Kempton, which is due to close down.
    That’s sad to hear. I once had a contract for a couple of years at an office almost next door along the A316.

    Many sneaky afternoons spent at the Tote once the bosses had left work early to spend time in the hospitality with the customers and suppliers. ;)
    One of my favourite racing memories is seeing Desert Orchid, having decanted R Dunwoody three out in the 1991 King George, then canter riderless, ears pricked, past the stands at Kempton to the most tumultuous roar from the crowd.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    Were you really offering 30s ???
    LOL. A couple of weeks before the vote I was on the No.19 bus and the driver told me to lower my sterling exposure and to rebalance my portfolio in favour of non-UK assets which would act as a hedge against the likely fall in sterling should we Brexit (and would ride the wave should we vote to stay in).

    The decent five figure sum I made on the night on Betfair, PP, and William Hill (lowest odds of 5-1) was just icing on the cake.
    The thought of you on a bus will stay with me for the rest of the day.

    I'll assume that the five figures include the two to the right of the decimal place :wink:
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    GDP up 0.4% interest rate hike nailed on for November
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/eu-referendum/page/2/
    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,949

    F1: perusing the markets early. Mildly miffed how last week's early bets turned out. I bet on Vettel to DNF (failed), and on, each way, the Red Bulls to win at 15 and 17. But one got a penalty and the other had a DNF in the race.

    I think my judgement on their pace was sound, but both had bad luck. However, worth noting Ricciardo's likely to have an engine penalty. I don't think that's absolutely confirmed yet but it does seem nigh on certain. Which is a shame, because 21 to win would otherwise be rather tasty odds.

    Morning, Mr.D.
    Apparently, Ricciardo will not receive the latest upgrade of the Renault engine, either. There's only enough for one per team that they supply, and Verstappen got it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited October 2017
    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
  • I can see a Corbyn majority fairly easily. The combination of youthful resentment of inequality, and anger with the Tories at Dogs Dinner Brexit can easily bring the sort of swing needed.

    That's already priced in to Labour's current polling.

    Who else are Labour going to find to rally to their New Venezuela flag?

    Corbyn and Mcdonnell are not capable of reaching out to build the broader coalition that is needed to win office. It is not in the DNA of radical (indeed revolutionary) socialist politics to do so.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. B, ah-ha! That's very handy information (not least as fastest qualifier is a market I'm contemplating), thanks for posting that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Blue_rog said:

    GDP up 0.4%

    Wow that excellent economic news should make quite a splash on the cover of today's Evening Standard.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,949

    Mr. kle4, well... medieval nobility did have plenty of scope for advancement. William Marshal went from being a minor knight to regent of England.

    Xi went against the unwritten understanding that there wouldn't be purging/corruption trials against senior figures in the party, in order to prevent internal bloodletting as happened a few decades ago. He's also beefed up the military.

    More state control probably won't be enough to derail the economic trend, but it won't help.


    Not a single member of the Politburo under 60... and they've never had a woman on it.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,774



    Yep - and given that the far left would never do a formal deal with the LDs or the SNP, it would be a minority government destined to fall very soon after the first budget was delivered.

    I think your view of the far left (to use your term) is too undifferentiated: there are at least three types, and I know quite a few of each.

    There's the angry type who shows up a lot on social media - Tories are scum, LibDems are traitors, etc. They would hate a deal with the LibDems. They are however very far and few between in Parliament.

    There's the starry-eyed idealist type - generally mild in manner but inflexible in beliefs - Jeremy is the obvious example (I'm another, these days). They make compromises if necessary to achieve the things that matter most to them- thus Jeremy is not insistent on Trident or NATO or the Royal Family since they aren't the issues that drive him (social justice, public services, racial harmony).

    And there's the hard-headed pragmatists, who adjust their stances without too many inhibitions to do what's necessary. John McDonnell will in my view turn out to be one of those.

    Conclusion: if an election produces a situation where Labour can govern, but only by a deal with the LibDems and SNP, it will happen. Curiously, though, it'll be harder for the Tories to portray it as Corbyn in Sturgeon's or Cable's pocket, partly because Corbyn doesn't really fit the subservient image and partly because the DUP deal has rather blown that argument anyway.

    I disagree - I think that Corbyn and McDonnell would run a mile from formal deals with either the SNP or the LibDems, the latter especially. However, I agree on pockets - again, especially for the SNP. It would be impossible for them to do anything that might be seen as enabling the Tories. Labour would have them over a barrel.

    A temporary coalition deal would arguably be the perfect situation for Labour. They'd have a ready made excuse to ditch, delay or water down some of the party's wilder promises, while getting enough done to placate supporters and prove that the sky won't fall in the moment they walk in No. 10. Say, a two year deal for managing Brexit to a soft landing with limited stuff that the Tories would obviously find themselves unpopular in opposing, like unfreezing public sector pay, NHS funding, etc would put them in a fairly strong position at the subsequent election when all the big promises would be wheeled out again. Then of course you'd need the tax rises, which even don't come close to paying for Corbyn's promises, but that's the bridge you have to cross after winning a majority.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    edited October 2017
    Mr. B, that's typical. Bloody white men. I blame the West.

    :p

    Edited extra bit: btw, do you happen to know if that new engine means Verstappen will incur a penalty?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/eu-referendum/page/2/
    image
    Thanks - what am I looking at? I can see the chances but where are the odds? Happy to be proven wrong but interested to see how the odds actually moved.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,949
    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    Sad to hear that.I think the UK is still a wonderful place to live, and York especially , I feel I am very lucky to have been born here.To me it still feels less divisive than the 1980s , however I realise that can change.
    A no deal Brexit doesn't look good for York...
    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/leeds-set-to-lose-out-on-6-4bn-in-a-hard-brexit-1-8821388
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    I'll try to publish the actual chart for the final 12 hours of Brexit betting later.

    I did not start betting at all on the referendum until 0054 on June 24th when Leave was as an 18.7% shot on Betfair. This was just after Newcastle came in.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    TGOHF said:

    Blue_rog said:

    GDP up 0.4%

    Wow that excellent economic news should make quite a splash on the cover of today's Evening Standard.....
    Despite Brexit...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    Universities are going completely bonkers. Mathematics is the basis of science, and nothing can change that.

    Also, there’s a huge effort going on in the Western world to get young people - especially young ladies - interested in STEM subjects. Stupid idiots like this completely undermine all those efforts.
    Agreed.
    Also the article ignores for example the Islamic world's contribution and that of the Chinese.

    http://www.storyofmathematics.com/islamic.html
    http://www.storyofmathematics.com/chinese.html
  • TGOHF said:

    Blue_rog said:

    GDP up 0.4%

    Wow that excellent economic news should make quite a splash on the cover of today's Evening Standard.....
    GDP per head increased by 0.3%.

    IIRC the most recent negative quarter for that was 2016q1.

    Now who was Chancellor then :wink:
  • TGOHF said:

    Blue_rog said:

    GDP up 0.4%

    Wow that excellent economic news should make quite a splash on the cover of today's Evening Standard.....
    Europhile Standard, you mean :lol:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    I'll try to publish the actual chart for the final 12 hours of Brexit betting later.

    I did not start betting at all on the referendum until 0054 on June 24th when Leave was as an 18.7% shot on Betfair. This was just after Newcastle came in.

    Looking forward to it, and as mentioned, I put on the hedge through the day and into the night up until around midnight-ish. BF I see only has online details for the past three months.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited October 2017
    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    Sad to hear that.I think the UK is still a wonderful place to live, and York especially , I feel I am very lucky to have been born here.To me it still feels less divisive than the 1980s , however I realise that can change.
    A no deal Brexit doesn't look good for York...
    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/leeds-set-to-lose-out-on-6-4bn-in-a-hard-brexit-1-8821388
    Leeds and most of Yorkshire voted Leave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited October 2017
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Blue_rog said:

    GDP up 0.4%

    Wow that excellent economic news should make quite a splash on the cover of today's Evening Standard.....
    Despite Brexit...
    Puts on best ScottP impression...but we haven't left yet...

    I think in all seriousness it shows how resolute the UK economy is. All the constant negative headlines, all the claims we are going to hell in a hand basket, and still it trundles on at an ok (although not stellar) rate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Song, the Indians inventing 0's worthy of mention.

    Mr. HYUFD, not true. Leeds was riven right down the middle but I think it was about 50.2% Remain.
  • HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    I liked this ... "“School mathematics curricula emphasizing terms like Pythagorean Theorem and pi perpetuate a perception that mathematics was largely developed by Greeks and other Europeans," she says, according to Campus Reform."

    Kind of glossing over the importance of Arabic numerals in mathematics there.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2017
    MJW said:



    A temporary coalition deal would arguably be the perfect situation for Labour. They'd have a ready made excuse to ditch, delay or water down some of the party's wilder promises, while getting enough done to placate supporters and prove that the sky won't fall in the moment they walk in No. 10. Say, a two year deal for managing Brexit to a soft landing with limited stuff that the Tories would obviously find themselves unpopular in opposing, like unfreezing public sector pay, NHS funding, etc would put them in a fairly strong position at the subsequent election when all the big promises would be wheeled out again. Then of course you'd need the tax rises, which even don't come close to paying for Corbyn's promises, but that's the bridge you have to cross after winning a majority.

    I think the problem with that is .... the small parties have learnt (cf the DUP).

    The smaller party gets all the blame & none of the credit in a Coalition like that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    Were you really offering 30s ???
    LOL. A couple of weeks before the vote I was on the No.19 bus and the driver told me to lower my sterling exposure and to rebalance my portfolio in favour of non-UK assets which would act as a hedge against the likely fall in sterling should we Brexit (and would ride the wave should we vote to stay in).

    The decent five figure sum I made on the night on Betfair, PP, and William Hill (lowest odds of 5-1) was just icing on the cake.
    The thought of you on a bus will stay with me for the rest of the day.

    I'll assume that the five figures include the two to the right of the decimal place :wink:
    :smile:

    The bonkers thing about it all was that the markets didn't really blink and paid attention to the ex-UK earnings of FTSE constituents after a mini-bout of the collywobbles that was erased within a week.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    I liked this ... "“School mathematics curricula emphasizing terms like Pythagorean Theorem and pi perpetuate a perception that mathematics was largely developed by Greeks and other Europeans," she says, according to Campus Reform."

    Kind of glossing over the importance of Arabic numerals in mathematics there.
    Or the Arabic derived terms 'algebra' or 'algorithms'

    (But it was a Welsh mathematician who invented the equals sign!)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Thompson, Arabic numerals are Indian, no? They migrated to us via Arabia but originated in India. That was my understanding, anyway.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Blue_rog said:

    GDP up 0.4%

    Wow that excellent economic news should make quite a splash on the cover of today's Evening Standard.....
    Despite Brexit...
    Puts on best ScottP impression...but we haven't left yet...

    I think in all seriousness it shows how resolute the UK economy is. All the constant negative headlines, all the claims we are going to hell in a hand basket, and still it trundles on at an ok (although not stellar) rate.
    Almost like the success of a country is based on the efforts of it's citizens rather than the media vibe and who said what about who at a Brussell's lunch ?

  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock were both enjoying 12 point leads between elections -and they both lost the following general election.
    Jeremy Corbyn wins about the same number of seats as Gordon Brown in 2010 which was Labour's second biggest defeat since 1935, and is level pegging wit the Tories and Labour holds a triumphalist rally at Brighton.
    I see Corbynista tears ahead.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
    If there was no Mrs Murali_s, I would move to Canada in a heartbeat. Sadly she hates the cold (and dark).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/eu-referendum/page/2/
    image
    Thanks - what am I looking at? I can see the chances but where are the odds? Happy to be proven wrong but interested to see how the odds actually moved.
    The two numbers are inverse of each other, so they add up to 100%. The x axis shows the movement over time on the night.

    The high point for Remain was the 93.5% chance highlighted by Mike in the graph at 22:10, so at that point Leave was a 6.5% chance, or 1 in 15.3 (1/6.5) which is (I think) a Betfair price of 16.3.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    Sad to hear that.I think the UK is still a wonderful place to live, and York especially , I feel I am very lucky to have been born here.To me it still feels less divisive than the 1980s , however I realise that can change.
    York is indeed lovely and the British people are still the best in the World (despite Brexit). Such a shame that the political class is so brainless (and crap).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Cwsc, it's somewhat amusing that the Arabic influence is also why we have the word 'alcohol'.

    F1: a problem with having several (well, eight) early betting ideas is trying to decide what to back. This is consuming more time than I anticipated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited October 2017
    murali_s said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
    If there was no Mrs Murali_s, I would move to Canada in a heartbeat. Sadly she hates the cold (and dark).
    Well you get the latter here in autumn and winter too just the temperature plummets in Canada, though they tend to have warmer summers, especially in Ontario.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    Mr. Song, the Indians inventing 0's worthy of mention.

    Mr. HYUFD, not true. Leeds was riven right down the middle but I think it was about 50.2% Remain.

    Apologies Leeds was 50.2% Remain 49.8% Leave though I don't think that makes a major difference to the point especially when Yorkshire as a whole was strongly Leave.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Mr. Cwsc, it's somewhat amusing that the Arabic influence is also why we have the word 'alcohol'.

    They have almost all the bright stars as well, Aldebaran, Algol, Betelgeuse, Fomalhaut, Vega.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arabic_star_names
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/eu-referendum/page/2/
    image
    Thanks - what am I looking at? I can see the chances but where are the odds? Happy to be proven wrong but interested to see how the odds actually moved.
    The two numbers are inverse of each other, so they add up to 100%. The x axis shows the movement over time on the night.

    The high point for Remain was the 93.5% chance highlighted by Mike in the graph at 22:10, so at that point Leave was a 6.5% chance, or 1 in 15.3 (1/6.5) which is (I think) a Betfair price of 16.3.
    ah I see so these are the odds in percentages. Many thanks.

    So must have been dreaming - is that the exchange or the sportsbook or both?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    edited October 2017
    murali_s said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
    If there was no Mrs Murali_s, I would move to Canada in a heartbeat. Sadly she hates the cold (and dark).
    Friend of mine moved last year from Dubai to Canada - talk about going from one extreme to the other. He likes it there, even if he did have to buy his missus a completely new wardrobe!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,880

    MJW said:



    A temporary coalition deal would arguably be the perfect situation for Labour. They'd have a ready made excuse to ditch, delay or water down some of the party's wilder promises, while getting enough done to placate supporters and prove that the sky won't fall in the moment they walk in No. 10. Say, a two year deal for managing Brexit to a soft landing with limited stuff that the Tories would obviously find themselves unpopular in opposing, like unfreezing public sector pay, NHS funding, etc would put them in a fairly strong position at the subsequent election when all the big promises would be wheeled out again. Then of course you'd need the tax rises, which even don't come close to paying for Corbyn's promises, but that's the bridge you have to cross after winning a majority.

    I think the problem with that is .... the small parties have learnt (cf the DUP).

    The smaller party gets all the blame & none of the credit in a Coalition like that.
    I’d be amazed if either big party could get the LD’s within a mile of a coalition, after the disaster that resulted from the last one.
    Whereas the Lib/Lab pact ...... C&S and a joint committee on legislation.....of the 70’s, even though it had it’s problems had a better outcome for the Liberals.
  • Mr. Cwsc, it's somewhat amusing that the Arabic influence is also why we have the word 'alcohol'.

    F1: a problem with having several (well, eight) early betting ideas is trying to decide what to back. This is consuming more time than I anticipated.

    I think 'alcohol' is arabic for pretending not to do in public what you are happy to do in private.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. HYUFD, np, an easy mistake to make, but the closeness stuck in my head (it's my area).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,880
    Sandpit said:

    murali_s said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
    If there was no Mrs Murali_s, I would move to Canada in a heartbeat. Sadly she hates the cold (and dark).
    Friend of mine moved last year from Dubai to Canada - talk about going from one extreme to the other. He likes it there, even if he did have to buy his missus a completely new wardrobe!
    The wine’s cheaper and probably better, pound for pound, too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anybody interested in a small punt on the horses could do a lot worse than take an interest in the 5.50 at Kempton, where Brexitmeansbrexit appears to have potential, and is good value at 16/1.

    Seriously.

    Cheers.

    You do realise its race/finishing place will be seen as an allegory for Brexit.
    Oh there are endless opportunities for predictable jokes, but as it happens it does have a chance. It shouldn't be 16/1 anyway. (Which gives it a better chance than us of getting a deal with the EU....chortle!)
    16/1 was about what Leave reached on Betfair on the evening of the Referendum.
    30s and better, at some points
    It never got to 30, was around 16.5 from memory at 22:30. Mike posted a graph of the odds over time on here a couple of weeks later.

    Thanks to @AndyJS and his awesome spreadsheet I think most people on here had a good night. :+1:
    Are you sure? I remember, hazily seeing 30s around midnight on BF but it could just have been the adrenalin and excitement of the evening.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/eu-referendum/page/2/
    image
    Thanks - what am I looking at? I can see the chances but where are the odds? Happy to be proven wrong but interested to see how the odds actually moved.
    The two numbers are inverse of each other, so they add up to 100%. The x axis shows the movement over time on the night.

    The high point for Remain was the 93.5% chance highlighted by Mike in the graph at 22:10, so at that point Leave was a 6.5% chance, or 1 in 15.3 (1/6.5) which is (I think) a Betfair price of 16.3.
    ah I see so these are the odds in percentages. Many thanks.

    So must have been dreaming - is that the exchange or the sportsbook or both?
    That’s the exchange price graph, which may be the one Mike alluded to upthread.

    There was a discussion as to who got the best odds of the night, right at that short peak. Several here got more than 12 IIRC.

    The max price would have been 15.3 (not 16.3 as I said above).
  • Sandpit said:

    murali_s said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
    If there was no Mrs Murali_s, I would move to Canada in a heartbeat. Sadly she hates the cold (and dark).
    Friend of mine moved last year from Dubai to Canada - talk about going from one extreme to the other. He likes it there, even if he did have to buy his missus a completely new wardrobe!
    The wine’s cheaper and probably better, pound for pound, too.
    Canadian Ice Wine, now that is some weird stuff....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Mr. Cwsc, it's somewhat amusing that the Arabic influence is also why we have the word 'alcohol'.

    F1: a problem with having several (well, eight) early betting ideas is trying to decide what to back. This is consuming more time than I anticipated.

    I think 'alcohol' is arabic for pretending not to do in public what you are happy to do in private.
    Genuine LOL :lol:
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    Sad to hear that.I think the UK is still a wonderful place to live, and York especially , I feel I am very lucky to have been born here.To me it still feels less divisive than the 1980s , however I realise that can change.
    A no deal Brexit doesn't look good for York...
    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/leeds-set-to-lose-out-on-6-4bn-in-a-hard-brexit-1-8821388
    Much appreciated as I have not read that before.Surprised it was not in the local York Press or local TV.York nowadays relies very much on tourists , Universities and the public sector , in contrast to the 1980s when manufacturing such as Rowntrees , Terry's were big employers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    Mr. HYUFD, np, an easy mistake to make, but the closeness stuck in my head (it's my area).

    OK thanks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    Guido is back on Jarad this morning.

    "That ‘journey’ of his had quite a few stops along the way…"
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    I liked this ... "“School mathematics curricula emphasizing terms like Pythagorean Theorem and pi perpetuate a perception that mathematics was largely developed by Greeks and other Europeans," she says, according to Campus Reform."

    Kind of glossing over the importance of Arabic numerals in mathematics there.
    Whilst the Arabs before the 1100's made contributions to astronomy and maths, after 1100 or so the they had to deal with Mongols from the east and Crusades from the west. One of the earliest inventors of the scientific method lived in Basra

    In the west things had been more or less "dead" scientifically from about 500AD as well and the only significant invention in the west until about 1400 was an improved horse collar.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,880

    Sandpit said:

    murali_s said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Politics is truly broken an exemplified by idiots like O’Mara and Heaton-Harris. The quality of our political class declines every single day. This allied with the crazy calamity of Brexit means I seriously have to re-think whether the UK is the right place for me and my family. I am lucky enough to have options - sadly most people don’t.

    It was most people who voted for Brexit and 40% of people who voted for Corbyn (on a 72% and 67% turnout).
    Though if you want a country pretty immune from populism and reasonably prosperous and stable at the moment, Canada is your best bet and it has a telegenic Liberal PM too if you like that sort of thing.
    If there was no Mrs Murali_s, I would move to Canada in a heartbeat. Sadly she hates the cold (and dark).
    Friend of mine moved last year from Dubai to Canada - talk about going from one extreme to the other. He likes it there, even if he did have to buy his missus a completely new wardrobe!
    The wine’s cheaper and probably better, pound for pound, too.
    Canadian Ice Wine, now that is some weird stuff....
    Very tasty though!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,880

    HYUFD said:
    That is a real find.

    I liked this ... " many people have experienced microaggressions from participating in math classrooms ...."
    I liked this ... "“School mathematics curricula emphasizing terms like Pythagorean Theorem and pi perpetuate a perception that mathematics was largely developed by Greeks and other Europeans," she says, according to Campus Reform."

    Kind of glossing over the importance of Arabic numerals in mathematics there.
    Whilst the Arabs before the 1100's made contributions to astronomy and maths, after 1100 or so the they had to deal with Mongols from the east and Crusades from the west. One of the earliest inventors of the scientific method lived in Basra

    In the west things had been more or less "dead" scientifically from about 500AD as well and the only significant invention in the west until about 1400 was an improved horse collar.
    Aristocracy too busy bashing each other about in pursuit of glory. There were some advances in architecture, though. And armour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    Time for an interest rate rise then?
  • Ruthless trade negotiator, Chris Kendall, denies being ruthless shock.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. City, weaker pound is good for tourism, though.

    Mrs C, is that a reference to the plough that enabled better cultivation? If so, it opened up swathes of Germany to agriculture and had a massive impact.

    Also, western medieval blades were superior to Japanese ones, the architecture of cathedrals (such as York Minster) are magnificent, and the first, I believe, recorded use of cannon was by Edward III.

    I'm not one of those mad revisionists who think the 'Dark Ages' were the equal of Rome, but I also don't subscribe to the view that everything was stagnant for a thousand years.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    ydoethur said:

    Goodness me, the centre left is feeling gloomy this morning:

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/10/22/labour-the-new-stupid-party/

    Mind you, I feel similarly gloomy whenever I contemplate politics at the moment.

    These are times for swivel-eyed zealots. I doubt anyone who coalesces around the centre - be it to the left or the right - feels too wonderful at the moment. The UK is diminishing internally and in the eyes of the world. We have the worst government and the worst opposition in living memory, and little indication that things will change for the better any time soon. Time to hunker down. The storm will pass, but it looks like it is going to be blowing for a long while yet.

    Until Britain accepts that it has to live within its means the storm will not pass.

    And neither the supporters of the Osborne rentier economy nor the Corbyn statist economy will ever accept that.
    I agree. The optimistic version of that realisation would be a real cultural shift towards wealth creation. A new consensus over national identity is the other minor item on the agenda.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    I see that Jared O'Mara is concerned about the plight of the Palestinians, so much so that he submitted 3 written questions on Israel, and Palestine. Seems an odd cause given the huge loss of life in Syria and the upheaval it has caused. Does the guy suffer from myopia?

    Imagine my surprise to discover that 3 written questions suddenly appeared on disabilities yesterday.

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/search/?pid=25636&pop=1#n4
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,880

    Mr. City, weaker pound is good for tourism, though.

    Mrs C, is that a reference to the plough that enabled better cultivation? If so, it opened up swathes of Germany to agriculture and had a massive impact.

    Also, western medieval blades were superior to Japanese ones, the architecture of cathedrals (such as York Minster) are magnificent, and the first, I believe, recorded use of cannon was by Edward III.

    I'm not one of those mad revisionists who think the 'Dark Ages' were the equal of Rome, but I also don't subscribe to the view that everything was stagnant for a thousand years.

    Didn’t the Chinese use cannon before then? Some half-remembered titbit, but my gym appointment calls.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,774

    MJW said:



    A temporary coalition deal would arguably be the perfect situation for Labour. They'd have a ready made excuse to ditch, delay or water down some of the party's wilder promises, while getting enough done to placate supporters and prove that the sky won't fall in the moment they walk in No. 10. Say, a two year deal for managing Brexit to a soft landing with limited stuff that the Tories would obviously find themselves unpopular in opposing, like unfreezing public sector pay, NHS funding, etc would put them in a fairly strong position at the subsequent election when all the big promises would be wheeled out again. Then of course you'd need the tax rises, which even don't come close to paying for Corbyn's promises, but that's the bridge you have to cross after winning a majority.

    I think the problem with that is .... the small parties have learnt (cf the DUP).

    The smaller party gets all the blame & none of the credit in a Coalition like that.
    That was true in the coalition, obviously - but if the stated purpose was to implement a soft Brexit, neither the SNP or Lib Dems could really turn it down - and there wouldn't be much blame to go around. The Lib Dems' big mistake was to totally misread the composition of their support - a large number of whom were economically similar or to the left of Labour but had fallen out with the party over the years. They got blamed because the act of going into coalition was for many a greater evil than any possible achievement because it enabled Osborne to implement his version of austerity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Guido is back on Jarad this morning.

    "That ‘journey’ of his had quite a few stops along the way…"

    As expected, Guido’s got a steaming pile of sh!t on the guy. If the Labour leadership have any sense he’ll have lost the whip by lunchtime.
  • Having just returned from a wonderful Mediterranean cruise and enjoyed 14 days away from Brexit it was interesting that as we docked in the early hours of the morning in Barcelona the container port was busy loading/unloading three container ships from their large container port. As we were transferred from the port to the airport for our return flight to Heathrow we passed a fire station with a large banner on the front with the wording 'Democracia'.

    The airport was a hive of activity and having visited Barcelona several times previously it is obvious Catalonia is very important to Spain and the actions of the Spanish Government seem so inept in provoking a situation that even the firefighters are openly demonstrating their support for democracy. I fear this will not have a happy ending.

    It was interesting that the Captain of our BA flight home felt it necessary to address the passengers by apologizing for the 'UK going through a mid life crisis' and that everyone from wherever they have come from are very welcome in the UK. He then went on to warn us that Heathrow was experiencing landing difficulties due to adverse weather but he hoped to be on time.

    As it turned out it was quite the worse landing experience I have ever had with the plane being buffeted all the way down until, just as the wheels were about to hit the runaway, he powered away aborting the landing. He apologized but said that he had been hit by a strong gust and had had no choice. For the next twenty minutes we rocked and rolled until finally hitting the runway hard and safely. Just shows the skills and the huge responsibility that pilots have and how well trained they are to cope with the unexpected
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