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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Consolation for Theresa – in spite of the Tory turmoil LAB isn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Consolation for Theresa – in spite of the Tory turmoil LAB isn’t pulling away
We get so few voting polls these days that any new one is something of an event and today we had ICM for the Guardian which once again has the two main parties level pegging.
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However the Tories would still be the largest party on 303 seats, therefore Labour would need support from both the SNP and PC and the LDs on a confidence and supply basis to form a minority government.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
How wrong was it at GE 2017 again
In this ICM poll Corbyn has a 10% lead over May.
That's enough to knock a few points off the Tories and add a couple of points to Labour.
What takes longer. LAB GE win or Sheffield Wednesday promotion to Premier League?
I'm sure that will go well - have faith in Philip!!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9951
May had no swingback, she achieved swingaway!
The Tories are also unlikely to be pushing another manifesto debacle like the one including the dementia tax but will go on the attack on tax etc.
Oh how we laughed How is Kaboom Boon still getting paid for such crap.
ICM did correctly predict Leave would win the EU referendum though, even Survation did not do that.
It might not be a very "strong and stable" government in that scenario, but that's a different issue.
At this point I just tend to assume anything difficult will not get through.
It is perfectly possible to imagine, say Davis succeeding May as PM, winning most seats at the general election but lacking enough support even with the DUP for a majority, Corbyn then doing a deal with the SNP and LDs to lead a minority government and Boris taking over as opposition leader with the Tories still on around 300 seats.
ICM completely underestimated Jezza just like you
FPT:
@Cyclefree
I’m not stating that the Conservative party should appeal to those who ‘do not have the values of the majority’. Where the hell I have said that? This is what I say when I disagree with your framing. I’ve said the Conservatives need to improve with ethnic minorities - and you’ve taken that and interpreted to ‘how far should the Conservative party go to appeal to those who don’t share British values?’ Don’t you see how that statement implies that appealing to minorities means automatically having to appeal to anti-British values? Don’t you see how that statement implies that there are no minorities with the values of the majority in general, so that means that the Conservative party would somehow have to go against the values of the majority to appeal to them?
Can’t you see that? Why assume that when it is said the Conservative party needed to improve with ethnic minorities that meant appealing to those who believe in gender segregation? The Conservative party has more ethnic minority MPs than it did prior to Cameron’s leadership: surely, that should demonstrate to you that ‘appeal to ethnic minorities’ does not mean appeal to misogynists? Especially given that you are talking to a mixed woman right now, who on this blog site had long written posts against misogyny, homophobia etc.
This submission does not accept both the underlying precepts of the Commission’s
Provisional Recommendations and the out-workings that flow from it. The Commission
needs to revisit both its broad approach and its detailed proposals. The DUP has
consistently criticised the present legislation as much more likely to produce poor
boundaries and the Commission’s proposals appear to have gone out of their way to fulfil
our concerns. The end result of this flawed approach is an unnecessary level of change and
constituencies that make statistical sense but very little else.
While we appreciate it is not a consideration of the Commission, we must state that the
proposals would produce an unrepresentative political result that would have the potential
to have far reaching and negative political consequences for the constitutional stability of
Northern Ireland
Given one of the main concerns is not supposed to be a consideration of the Commission, and the others involve fundamental problems with underlying precepts and approach which apparently were not taken on board previously, it seems fair to conclude they will not budge unless the boundaries are majorly different when they are next published.
https://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/sites/boundarycommission.org.uk/files/media-files/Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).PDF
https://www.ndca.org.uk/news/parliamentary-boundary-changes
Tut tut!
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/922945919271755776
Though it would also mean the Tories would effectively have the role of opposition all to themselves which would be a help if the government soon became unpopular, they would receive all the protest votes.
And after all that has been said, Labour aren't going to be giving them any deal to stay inside the tent. Because that would make them hypocrites....
Oh.
But the current MPs seem to care (quelle surprise!) and I suspect up and down the country quite a few 'at risk' Tories will end up absenting themselves during a key vote, due to 'pressing constituency matters', leaving the opposition parties free to defeat the new proposals. (That's assuming it ever gets near a vote.)
Corbyn majority in his honeymoon.
On cross county seats, I don't mind them, housing market areas, functional economic market areas, these things go across ancient administrative boundaries and local authorities are required to work with each other on such things as a result, so while in the absence of compelling reason I'd want them to try to stick to such boundaries, it doesn't bother me if they do not. Splitting up contiguous areas (except in cities, obviously) does annoy though, since those are not essentially arbitrary lines on maps.
He didn't set out to be leader and he always said it was more about creating a movement. He has boosted membership to such an extent that a left wing leader will be elected by the membership and given that leader an excellent base to push on from. I think he will put Party before any personal ambition he might have to become PM, when the time comes.
So I don’t think they have that many voters left to lose....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-24/lawmaker-asks-facebook-for-detail-on-brexit-related-russian-ads
Corbyn strikes me as the kind of person who is very quietly smug that his moment has come at last. FWIW, I think a more palatable leader would have stormed home to victory on Labour's 2017 manifesto. But as the last two years have proven, Corbyn isn't going anywhere any time soon..
But surely it would be better to have constituencies which represented a coherent group of people rather than trying to make them all exactly the same size. I'd have 65,000 +/- 10,000 and try and fit in with existing town and county boundaries, which would allow the boundary commission a little more leeway to respect geography and history.
Ian Paisley's article here shows how detached they are from the realities of the negotiations.
http://brexitcentral.com/dublin-denial-brexit-irish-politicians-new-strategy/
You've been hearing me say it's a rigged system, but now I don't say it anymore because I won. It's true. Now I don't care
Albeit that was in relation to the primary system, which is a confusing mess for both parties.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-gop-rigged-but-i-dont-care-because-i-won/article/2590545
Incidentally, I do love the summary on that page:
Trump continued to talk about a number of different subjects, including earning former Indiana University basketball coach Bobby Knight's endorsement, the fact that his hair was real, and that his decision to run for president was "not something that I really wanted to do."
It would buy you 1/4 a bottle of local California wine I would imagine.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/10/24/cambridge-university-caves-student-demands-decolonise-english/
We don’t want to do Plato on a philosophy course cos he was white and it’s all racialist.