Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
I'm not regretting my straight win bet of ~240 on Floyd. Could well have been a wide decision with another referee
I just put £1k on Mayweather @ 1.29 just before 5am.
The hindsight narratives (that Floyd was *just toying* with Connor, etc etc) don't persuade me I got the value I thought I was getting when I took the 1.29.
It looks to me like the market wasn't far off.
Still, winningz are winningz
That was a great price.
I had a bit on at 1.25 and some on the stoppage, but outweighed by a few small bets on the early rounds. £50 on and £30 back, but didn’t have to pay for the PPV so was a good morning’s entertainment for £20.
The last time I had a grand on something at 1.25 it was the Tory majority!
It seems to me that the fight went almost exactly how the experts predicted. MacGregor came out swinging, Mayweather didn't panic, and the longer the fight went on the more he picked MacGregor apart.
Still, I won't bet on boxing again. I doubt any more 'Boxing legend v non-boxer' matches will happen.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is for three months.
The big quesouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyonthe cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it"y both parties, the default is no transition, just hard Brexit on day 1. No deal means no transition.
Yep, it's just a to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the Tories are heaf cleaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Germany and Austria has been to see how irrelevant Brexit now is to their politics
it hardly gets a mention
the 12 month remainer ernment, after that things will move on
So Brexit is not an issue in Germany. In that case why will Merkel be key to our position?
More likely she will concentrate on Germany's economic boom.
Because she rules the EU
and if her press isnt reporting it it shows how important your personal infactuation is in the grand scheme of things currently her biggest problem is german attitudes to immigration which is costing her support
the most thought provoking thing I picked up on reading the german press was Wolfgang Schauble is 74, so not automatically slotted in for a full term as Finance minister becasue of his age, that will change German attitudes
Likewise since the german press has slotted in a Merkel victory the press is already speculating on who will succeed her as they think this will be her last term and there is no successor in view
Douglas Carswell✔ @DouglasCarswell "I see Continuity Remain has got back from its villa in Umbria and is making every effort to get its narrative into the newspapers"
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
Strange days indeed. The Tories' approach to the economy and to British people's well-being is now to do what is in the interest of the Tory party rather than what is in the interests of the UK. An extraordinary position for an ostensibly patriotic party - it has abandoned pragmatism in favour of ideology. I sense that business has woken up to that and is increasingly alarmed.
F1: backed both Force Indias to score at 2.2. It's Ladbrokes, but on the Exchange, under F1, then Belgian GP Specials. Wasn't there yesterday or I would've tipped that.
I've not been following F1 for a few years, but a cursory glance at this season's results show Force India have achieved this every race but 2 so far this season. Thanks for the tip, any idea why Ladbrokes think it is odds against?
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
Post which use derogatory terms over how people voted get deleted.
Douglas Carswell✔ @DouglasCarswell "I see Continuity Remain has got back from its villa in Umbria and is making every effort to get its narrative into the newspapers"
One wonders if Starmer ran his leak to the Observer past Jezza ?
Leadership all signed up apparently. We'll see how long that lasts. If it does, it's a big win for Starmer.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Since you did compare the EU to Nazi Germany, your bleating is not just wrongheaded but advertises your contemptibility.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
I completely endorse your last paragraph. Whilst voting remain and now accepting we leave I do think the words Remoaner or Brexiteer are simply unhelpful in the need for a consensus on our exit.
I do not understand labour's position on no change over a four year transistion and a wish list that the EU will change it's freedom of movement principles. It is the ultimate 'cake and eat it' proposition and enshrines the ECJ in UK law and requires us to continue paying into the EU.
I expect a broadside from those who want to control immigration, restore UK laws, and to stop paying into the EU and have doubts that this will be popular among voters generally.
Furthermore the uncertainty stretches into the distant future curbing investment and failing to provide certainty to business.
The process is complex and no one can tell how this will end but remaining in the EU, or any suggestion we do, is unlikely to be acceptable to the majority
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
Strange days indeed. The Tories' approach to the economy and to British people's well-being is now to do what is in the interest of the Tory party rather than what is in the interests of the UK. An extraordinary position for an ostensibly patriotic party - it has abandoned pragmatism in favour of ideology. I sense that business has woken up to that and is increasingly alarmed.
People of working age voted Remain, both bosses and workers. The Tories are now the party of the retired. It is a demographic that turns out most of the time, but may well be outvoted if Labour again manages to get the under 65's out again.
Labour are on the hunt for votes. Policy is secondary to that aim. They can say what they like since they don't have to implement it.
With the Conservatives pitching themselves as the party of reactionary xenophobia, there's quite a lot of ground open to Labour to occupy.
The Labour "cake and eat it" position has significant advantages over its Tory equivalent that makes it much more palatable to the EU27. The Labour position is driven by Europhilia, and common agreement on the European Social Democrat ethos, the Tory one driven by Europhobia and dislike of European consensus.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will make it much easier fs the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position by Labour, but on the face of it very sale able. Not likely to survive contact with reality of course, but that is fine in opposition without an immediate election on the cards.
All the talk of 1 vs 2 year transitions hinges on a deal being signed off by both parties, the default is no transition, just hard Brexit on day 1. No deal means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the Tories are heading that way. The real battle from here will be about who gets the blame and who gets the job of cleaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Germany and Austria has been to see how irrelevant Brexit now is to their politics
it hardly gets a mention
the 12 month remainer sulkathon will end in October when Germany gets a new government, after that things will move on
Very little about it in France and Spain, too. Europe's moved on, economy's are improving. The UK's negotiating hand gets weaker by the day.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguous embrace of Soft Brexit is whether it can survive its first contact with "off-the-cuff" remarks from the party leader. Corbyn could kill the whole thing off in one or two sentences. He may well do so.
It is possible, especially as Labour's conference comes first, but it will probably only matter if it splits the Labour Party itself. I'm really not convinced the precise details of hard vs soft or EFTA vs WTO or Norweigan vs Swiss much exercise the voter on the Clapham omnibus.
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will maker big step towards the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the Tories are heading that way. The real battle from here will be about who gets the blame and who gets the job of cleaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
no he's just going through the motions, Merkel won't move until shes back in and knows who she is in coalition with
PB is just too hung up on Brexit and has lost the plot
Brexit and how it happens is of pivotal importance to the UK. It is, indeed, less important to everyone else.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will make it much easier fs the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it"
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the Tories are heading that way. The real battle from here will be about who gets the blame and who gets the job of cleaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Germany and Austria has been to see how irrelevant Brexit now is to their politics
it hardly gets a mention
the 12 month remainer sulkathon will end in October when Germany gets a new government, after that things will move on
Very little about it in France and Spain, too. Europe's moved on, economy's are improving. The UK's negotiating hand gets weaker by the day.
We isolated ourselves from the rest of Europe, so it is hardly surprising that we are now irrelevant.
Douglas Carswell✔ @DouglasCarswell "I see Continuity Remain has got back from its villa in Umbria and is making every effort to get its narrative into the newspapers"
One wonders if Starmer ran his leak to the Observer past Jezza ?
Mr. Quincel, not sure, the odds on Ladbrokes proper (ie not the exchange) is the technically still generous 1.53, but that's damned short for me.
Force India's been very reliable, and has good pace, and good drivers. It's not a dead cert by any stretch of the imagination but, as you say, it's happened an awful lot. The only teams with more double points finishes are Mercedes and Ferrari.
Edited extra bit: come to think of it, Ferrari and Force India might be tied.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will make it much easier fs the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position by Labour, but on the face of it very sale able. Not likely to survive contact with reality of course, but that is fine in opposition without an immediate election on the cards.
All the talk of 1 vs 2 year transitions hinges on a deal being signed off by both parties, the default is no transition, just hard Brexit on day 1. No deal means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an odeliver.
But 2 years i century.
We're going over theaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Germany and Austria ha Germany gets a new government, after that things will move on
Very little about it in France and Spain, too. Europe's moved on, economy's are improving. The UK's negotiating hand gets weaker by the day.
I mean really ?
The french press is worried about the upcoming strikes if Macron is going to take on the Unions, Germany is worried about Euro being overvalued and the impact of dieselgate on its car industry, Italy is in dire straits economically and Spain may see it's strongest region vote to leave the country in October.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguous embrace of Soft Brexit is whether it can survive its first contact with "off-the-cuff" remarks from the party leader. Corbyn could kill the whole thing off in one or two sentences. He may well do so.
It is possible, especially as Labour's conference comes first, but it will probably only matter if it splits the Labour Party itself. I'm really not convinced the precise details of hard vs soft or EFTA vs WTO or Norweigan vs Swiss much exercise the voter on the Clapham omnibus.
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will maker big step towards the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the Tories are heading that way. The real battle from here will be about who gets the blame and who gets the job of cleaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
no he's just going through ththe plot
Brexit and how it happens is of pivotal importance to the UK. It is, indeed, less important to everyone else.
It's an important item short term
it's not the only important item education ,housing and spending power are more important to voters as we saw in June
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
It's hard to see why any small business owner would support a Corbyn-led party. They'd be under the cosh, if Corbyn became PM.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguous embrace of Soft Brexit is whether it can survive its first contact with "off-the-cuff" remarks from the party leader. Corbyn could kill the whole thing off in one or two sentences. He may well do so.
It is possible, especially as Labour'spham omnibus.
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will maker big step towards the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the Tories are heading that way. The real battle from here will be about who gets the blame and who gets the job of cleaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
no he's just going through ththe plot
Brexit and how it happens is of pivotal importance to the UK. It is, indeed, less important to everyone else.
It's an important item short term
it's not the only important item education ,housing and spending power are more important to voters as we saw in June
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
It's hard to see why any small business owner would support a Corbyn-led party. They'd be under the cosh, if Corbyn became PM.
it's also hard to see why they'd support the conservatives
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will make it much easier fs the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position by Labour, but on the face of it very sale able. Not likely to survive contact with reality of course, but that is fine in opposition without an immediate election on the cards.
All the talk of 1 vs 2 year transitions hinges on a deal being signed off by both parties, the default is no transition, just hard Brexit on day 1. No deal means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an odeliver.
But 2 years i century.
We're going over theaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Germany and Austria ha Germany gets a new government, after that things will move on
Very little about it in France and Spain, too. Europe's moved on, economy's are improving. The UK's negotiating hand gets weaker by the day.
I mean really ?
The french press is worried about the upcoming strikes if Macron is going to take on the Unions, Germany is worried about Euro being overvalued and the impact of dieselgate on its car industry, Italy is in dire straits economically and Spain may see it's strongest region vote to leave the country in October.
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
Strange days indeed. The Tories' approach to the economy and to British people's well-being is now to do what is in the interest of the Tory party rather than what is in the interests of the UK. An extraordinary position for an ostensibly patriotic party - it has abandoned pragmatism in favour of ideology. I sense that business has woken up to that and is increasingly alarmed.
People of working age voted Remain, both bosses and workers. The Tories are now the party of the retired. It is a demographic that turns out most of the time, but may well be outvoted if Labour again manages to get the under 65's out again.
Labour are on the hunt for votes. Policy is secondary to that aim. They can say what they like since they don't have to implement it.
With the Conservatives pitching themselves as the party of reactionary xenophobia, there's quite a lot of ground open to Labour to occupy.
The Labour "cake and eat it" position has significant advantages over its Tory equivalent that makes it much more palatable to the EU27. The Labour position is driven by Europhilia, and common agreement on the European Social Democrat ethos, the Tory one driven by Europhobia and dislike of European consensus.
People aged 18-42 voted Remain. Those aged 43-65 voted Leave. Pensioners tipped the balance.
Post which use derogatory terms over how people voted get deleted.
That is very welcome news indeed, Mike. I'd missed that announcement of site policy but, knowing it now, I'll be happier to post a little more often again.
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
It's hard to see why any small business owner would support a Corbyn-led party. They'd be under the cosh, if Corbyn became PM.
it's also hard to see why they'd support the conservatives
The Conservatives may not be that great, but they're not giving them a hard time.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
The local etc election results were after the event, of course, It’s always said that it’s a woman’s privilege to change her mind and TMay dramatically changed her mind in April, after having firmly stated on many, many occasions that there wouldn’t be an election, there was no need for one. IMHO that was the original killer. The campaign itself was the coup de grace.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguous embrace of Soft Brexit is whether it can survive its first contact with "off-the-cuff" remarks from the party leader. Corbyn could kill the whole thing off in one or two sentences. He may well do so.
It is possible, especially as Labour'spham omnibus.
For sure. But if eve cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prhis century.
We're going ov mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
no he's just going through ththe plot
Brexit and how it happens is of pivotal importance to the UK. It is, indeed, less important to everyone else.
It's an important item short term
it's not the only important item education ,housing and spending power are more important to voters as we saw in June
I'd also addd infrastructure to that list
And all dependent on how Brexit turns out.
no theyre not
education is about reforming a shit way of funding housing is about loosening planning and probably a social housing programme spending power is about addressing productivity since we are addicted to low cost wages
Brexit can have an influence but however black and white you wish to paint it the issues are multifaceted and not dependent on a single factor
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Since you did compare the EU to Nazi Germany, your bleating is not just wrongheaded but advertises your contemptibility.
No, I really didn't. I said a film reminded me how proud a nation we are. Everything else you read into it.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will make it much easier fs the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake ands no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an odeliver.
But 2 years i century.
We're going over theaning up the mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Gervernment, after that things will move on
Very little about it in France and Spain, too. Europe's moved on, economy's are improving. The UK's negotiating hand gets weaker by the day.
I mean really ?
The french in October.
A bit of balance might be helpful
Yep, Brexit is only a big deal in and for the UK.
most of your compatriots dont see it as that big a deal, it's for anoraks and wonks
and if her press isnt reporting it it shows how important your personal infactuation is in the grand scheme of things currently her biggest problem is german attitudes to immigration which is costing her support
So Merkel, who 'rules the EU', is going to go soft on an existential attack on the EU because the German press aren't worried about its effects?
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Since you did compare the EU to Nazi Germany, your bleating is not just wrongheaded but advertises your contemptibility.
No, I really didn't. I said a film reminded me how proud a nation we are. Everything else you read into it.
Time to grow up about Brexit.
Time to stop lying. Your post said nothing of the sort. You should be ashamed for thinking the two remotely comparable.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over do so.
It is possible, especially as Labour'spham omnibus.
For sure. But if eve cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 yeacentury.
We're going ov mess.
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
no he's just going through ththe plot
Brexit and how it happens is of pivotal importance to the UK. It is, indeed, less important to everyone else.
It's an important item short term
it's not thene
I'd that list
And all dependent on how Brexit turns out.
no theyre not
education is about reforming a shit way of funding housing is about loosening planning and probably a social housing programme spending power is about addressing productivity since we are addicted to low cost wages
Brexit can have an influence but however black and white you wish to paint it the issues are multifaceted and not dependent on a single factor
Any issue that touches on money is totally dependent on how Brexit turns out. A bad Brexit that squeezes government income while increasing unemployment would mean very tough new cuts to public spending, while further disincentiving business investment. A good deal might do the opposite. Until the Brexit deal is done - or we fall off the cliff edge - everything else is in limbo.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Since you did compare the EU to Nazi Germany, your bleating is not just wrongheaded but advertises your contemptibility.
No, I really didn't. I said a film reminded me how proud a nation we are. Everything else you read into it.
Time to grow up about Brexit.
Time to stop lying. Your post said nothing of the sort. You should be ashamed for thinking the two remotely comparable.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
On the Nazi/EU comparison, I would hate to get into a pissing contest over which organisation was more honest and transparent about its long-term political objectives. And Remoaners is only a vocal subset of Remainers; there are plenty of the latter, like me, whose position is that a result is a result and that in the pram is the best place for toys.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
'The GE', as referenced above, which hasn't changed govt Brexit policy one bit.
As I say, Remainers get overexcited. They've forgotten how to reason about this issue.
People voted to leave, and leave we shall. Rejoice.
TMay went into the election to secure mandate for her Brexit plans. The was the expressed purpose for going to the country 3 years early. She failed to get a majority and therefore for has no mandate.
Some would argue that the later general election supersedes the advisory referendum.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
The local etc election results were after the event, of course, It’s always said that it’s a woman’s privilege to change her mind and TMay dramatically changed her mind in April, after having firmly stated on many, many occasions that there wouldn’t be an election, there was no need for one. IMHO that was the original killer. The campaign itself was the coup de grace.
Thanks for the correction - she announced the GE before the LE/mayorals. My mistake.
--
I don't think anyone would have cared about her changing her mind about holding an election if A50 was on the table, though.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I'm a Remainer (in spirit and heart even though it's not possible now in practice) and I can honestly say that I didn't get even slightly excited about any of the stuff on your list. I've had a feeling of impending doom throughout the entire process and I still do. 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU and there's nothing to be done about it. That has to be respected. So we Remainers are finished - unless something totally unforeseen happens. That's the reality as I see it.
Thank you for using the word Remainer rather than the taunting Remoaner word that so many of your less thoughtful fellow winners use to kick us while we are down. That one really vicious word, especially when used in the printed media and on TV, is quite high (in my opinion) on the list of reasons why the country is not showing any signs of uniting.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Since you did compare the EU to Nazi Germany, your bleating is not just wrongheaded but advertises your contemptibility.
No, I really didn't. I said a film reminded me how proud a nation we are. Everything else you read into it.
Time to grow up about Brexit.
Time to stop lying. Your post said nothing of the sort. You should be ashamed for thinking the two remotely comparable.
Good grief you're insufferable. Didn't compare.
You assumed far too much.
Have you seen the film? It's fantastic.
Until you can stop lying, I see no point in engaging with you on this further. And until you can stop comparing the EU to Nazi Germany, you're part of the problem not part of the solution.
Mr. Quincel, not sure, the odds on Ladbrokes proper (ie not the exchange) is the technically still generous 1.53, but that's damned short for me.
Force India's been very reliable, and has good pace, and good drivers. It's not a dead cert by any stretch of the imagination but, as you say, it's happened an awful lot. The only teams with more double points finishes are Mercedes and Ferrari.
Edited extra bit: come to think of it, Ferrari and Force India might be tied.
Well, I'm on for a modest sum. Not nailed on, but I think you're definitely right about it being comfortably odds on. Fingers crossed and thanks again.
Labour would seek a transitional deal that maintains the same basic terms that we currently enjoy with the EU. That means we would seek to remain in a customs union with the EU and within the single market during this period. It means we would abide by the common rules of both.
Yes, Carlotta ! This time you got it absolutely spot on. The Great Red Spot.
Labour also recognise that this transitional arrangement would – for all its merits – be imperfect and prove unsustainable beyond a limited period.
It would not provide a durable or acceptable long-term settlement for Britain or the EU. It would not provide certainty for either party. It leaves unresolved some of the central issues the referendum exposed – in particular the need for more effective management of migration, which Labour recognise must be addressed in the final deal.
Carlotta, good morning ! I can see the boxing people got up earlier this morning.
Back to Brexit. We are now odds on to win Tokyo Central and the Chiba Prefecture ! Barnier could even tell Davis: "why am I talking to you ?"
What a laugh, we are going to be still in but in limbo paying more than we do now for much less, just as I predicted since the referendum. UK is led by donkeys, an "elite" chosen from a set of inbred donkeys. Our A team are doing a great job, what a trio.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
'The GE', as referenced above, which hasn't changed govt Brexit policy one bit.
As I say, Remainers get overexcited. They've forgotten how to reason about this issue.
People voted to leave, and leave we shall. Rejoice.
TMay went into the election to secure mandate for her Brexit plans. The was the expressed purpose for going to the country 3 years early. She failed to get a majority and therefore for has no mandate.
Some would argue that the later general election supersedes the advisory referendum.
+ her failure to acknowledge that reality is why we're in such a pickle now.
Douglas Carswell✔ @DouglasCarswell "I see Continuity Remain has got back from its villa in Umbria and is making every effort to get its narrative into the newspapers"
One wonders if Starmer ran his leak to the Observer past Jezza ?
Yes. At least according to accompanying articles. Major meetings of leadership and key shadow cabinet over last couple of weeks. All kept quiet, even from MPs. Jezza and gang are on board.
Any issue that touches on money is totally dependent on how Brexit turns out. A bad Brexit that squeezes government income while increasing unemployment would mean very tough new cuts to public spending, while further disincentiving business investment. A good deal might do the opposite. Until the Brexit deal is done - or we fall off the cliff edge - everything else is in limbo.
That's completely bonkers nothing is totally dependent on Brexit
Brexit has an influence as do lots of other things, some of them much more important
we went through a recession where the BoE just printed more cash - short term they will do the same again
our internal economy is much bigger than what we trade
all complex economies are multifacted to claim one event determines everything lacks perspective
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David Davis had years to come to grips with how the EU works, how FTAs are done, how complex leaving would be. It turns out they didn't bother.
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
Single market tories will still view a Corbyn govt as a bigger problem.
If May gives private assurances and says she will keep open potential for her successor to extend the transition period/determine final nature of Brexit... surely that will be enough to keep them on board?
If an election were held today, we project the Conservatives would retain the status of largest party in the House of Commons, though down 19 seats.
Our poll tracker, which covers Great Britain only, has Labour at 42.1 per cent and the Conservatives 41.1 per cent. With a slender lead of 1pt, this would, according to our forecast model, translate into Labour still falling short of overtaking the Tories in the Commons, albeit by 10 seats.
On current polling we do not expect any party to attain a majority in the Commons. The forecast projects the Tories to take 298 seats to Labour’s 289. 13 of Labour’s gains are expected to come from Scotland and London......
We expect the Scottish National Party to come away with 25 seats, down 10 on June, and the Liberal Democrats to net 3, totaling 15.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David Davis had years to come to grips with how the EU works, how FTAs are done, how complex leaving would be. It turns out they didn't bother.
I suspect they didn't think it would ever matter, as no PM would be stupid enough to give in to Farage and offer a referendum would they?
I'm not regretting my straight win bet of ~240 on Floyd. Could well have been a wide decision with another referee
I just put £1k on Mayweather @ 1.29 just before 5am.
The hindsight narratives (that Floyd was *just toying* with Connor, etc etc) don't persuade me I got the value I thought I was getting when I took the 1.29.
It looks to me like the market wasn't far off.
Still, winningz are winningz
That was a great price.
I had a bit on at 1.25 and some on the stoppage, but outweighed by a few small bets on the early rounds. £50 on and £30 back, but didn’t have to pay for the PPV so was a good morning’s entertainment for £20.
The last time I had a grand on something at 1.25 it was the Tory majority!
It seems to me that the fight went almost exactly how the experts predicted. MacGregor came out swinging, Mayweather didn't panic, and the longer the fight went on the more he picked MacGregor apart.
Still, I won't bet on boxing again. I doubt any more 'Boxing legend v non-boxer' matches will happen.
Fact that Mayweather was betting large 6 figure sums to win in 9.5 rounds kind of says it all. He did it with a minute to spare, does not sound as if he was lucky in any way.
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
Single market tories will still view a Corbyn govt as a bigger problem.
If May gives private assurances and says she will keep open potential for her successor to extend the transition period/determine final nature of Brexit... surely that will be enough to keep them on board?
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
Why on Earth would Tory MPs bring down their government, cause an election, lose their seats and allow Jezza to become Prime Minister?
I think everyone is getting a bit carried away this morning...
Agreed. It's more likely that a 'Norway option' debate leads to a government of national unity.
Why would Jezza want to get involved with a unity government? He'd become Ramsay Macdonald when he think's he's in with a chance of becoming Clem Attlee?
What's going to happen is... Nothing's going to happen. A50 will continue. The government will negotiate our exit. The "deal" will be put before Parliament where it will narrowly get through and we'll leave the EU, probably with a two year transition.
Tezza quits in 2019 and the next election will depend on the end of the transition period.
OK, now we're sorted until 2022 I'm off out to enjoy the late summer sunshine.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Yes, but now know he is a liar who lied to the House so we can't use him as a comparison.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David Davis had years to come to grips with how the EU works, how FTAs are done, how complex leaving would be. It turns out they didn't bother.
I suspect they didn't think it would ever matter, as no PM would be stupid enough to give in to Farage and offer a referendum would they?
Or win a majority and have to deliver on the commitment.....
Douglas Carswell✔ @DouglasCarswell "I see Continuity Remain has got back from its villa in Umbria and is making every effort to get its narrative into the newspapers"
One wonders if Starmer ran his leak to the Observer past Jezza ?
Yes. At least according to accompanying articles. Major meetings of leadership and key shadow cabinet over last couple of weeks. All kept quiet, even from MPs. Jezza and gang are on board.
Starmer wrote an article about it. That's not a leak!!
Post which use derogatory terms over how people voted get deleted.
That is very welcome news indeed, Mike. I'd missed that announcement of site policy but, knowing it now, I'll be happier to post a little more often again.
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
Why on Earth would Tory MPs bring down their government, cause an election, lose their seats and allow Jezza to become Prime Minister?
I think everyone is getting a bit carried away this morning...
Agreed. It's more likely that a 'Norway option' debate leads to a government of national unity.
Why would Jezza want to get involved with a unity government? He'd become Ramsay Macdonald when he think's he's in with a chance of becoming Clem Attlee?
What's going to happen is... Nothing's going to happen. A50 will continue. The government will negotiate our exit. The "deal" will be put before Parliament where it will narrowly get through and we'll leave the EU, probably with a two year transition.
Tezza quits in 2019 and the next election will depend on the end of the transition period.
OK, now we're sorted until 2022 I'm off out to enjoy the late summer sunshine.
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
Single market tories will still view a Corbyn govt as a bigger problem.
If May gives private assurances and says she will keep open potential for her successor to extend the transition period/determine final nature of Brexit... surely that will be enough to keep them on board?
If an election were held today, we project the Conservatives would retain the status of largest party in the House of Commons, though down 19 seats.
Our poll tracker, which covers Great Britain only, has Labour at 42.1 per cent and the Conservatives 41.1 per cent. With a slender lead of 1pt, this would, according to our forecast model, translate into Labour still falling short of overtaking the Tories in the Commons, albeit by 10 seats.
On current polling we do not expect any party to attain a majority in the Commons. The forecast projects the Tories to take 298 seats to Labour’s 289. 13 of Labour’s gains are expected to come from Scotland and London......
We expect the Scottish National Party to come away with 25 seats, down 10 on June, and the Liberal Democrats to net 3, totaling 15.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David Davis had years to come to grips with how the EU works, how FTAs are done, how complex leaving would be. It turns out they didn't bother.
Or rather your view of Brexit which is basically we should leave the EU and then effectively rejoin straight away with full single market membership, full membership of the customs union, full continued payments to the EU and no controls on free movement.
That is not going to happen, I am now increasingly of the view that when May departs in summer 2019 it will be a Davis v Boris contest which Boris will win on a platform of a 1 year transition period maximum. He could then call a spring 2020 general election once that transition period has ended on a platform of full Brexit from then on leaving Corbyn standing on a policy of extending that transition period long after the general election if he wins it and continued free movement for years to come
Any issue that touches on money is totally dependent on how Brexit turns out. A bad Brexit that squeezes government income while increasing unemployment would mean very tough new cuts to public spending, while further disincentiving business investment. A good deal might do the opposite. Until the Brexit deal is done - or we fall off the cliff edge - everything else is in limbo.
That's completely bonkers nothing is totally dependent on Brexit
Brexit has an influence as do lots of other things, some of them much more important
we went through a recession where the BoE just printed more cash - short term they will do the same again
our internal economy is much bigger than what we trade
all complex economies are multifacted to claim one event determines everything lacks perspective
Clearly, Brexit has put everything else on the backburner. We can't move on properly until it's sorted. That may not have been the case if the Tories had won a majority in June, but they didn't.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Continued free movement is not want most Tory voters want and not want the 1/3 of Labour 2015 voters who voted Leave and the 20% of UKIP voters who voted for Corbyn in June want either
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
'The GE', as referenced above, which hasn't changed govt Brexit policy one bit.
As I say, Remainers get overexcited. They've forgotten how to reason about this issue.
People voted to leave, and leave we shall. Rejoice.
TMay went into the election to secure mandate for her Brexit plans. The was the expressed purpose for going to the country 3 years early. She failed to get a majority and therefore for has no mandate.
Some would argue that the later general election supersedes the advisory referendum.
I'd accept that last point. Parties that opposed Brexit won about 14% of the vote between them.
Will she get to choose her own leaving date? Others may well wish to prepone it.
One drawback of a Prime Minister preannouncing their departure date is usually reckoned to be a severe loss of authority. Evdiently that isn't a consideration this time round.
Why would she go on 30 August rather than at conference?
Unless she resigns as leader in, say, April, announces new leader in July and allows them to run in as DPM for 6 weeks over the summer?
It just doesn't make sense to me. Once a new leader is elected she can't remain as PM - that's just silly.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop upsignificant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David It turns out they didn't bother.
Or rather your view of Brexit which is basically we should leave the EU and then effectively rejoin straight away with full single market membership, full membership of the customs union, full continued payments to the EU and no controls on free movement.
That is not going to happen, I am now increasingly of the view that when May departs in summer 2019 it will be a Davis v Boris contest which Boris will win on a platform of a 1 year transition period maximum. He could then call a spring 2020 general election once that transition period has ended on a platform of full Brexit from then on leaving Corbyn standing on a policy of extending that transition period long after the general election if he wins it and continued free movement for years to come
My view on Brexit is irrelevant to the fact that David Davis and other Brexiteers had years to understand how the EU works, how FTAs are done anf how complex leaving would be, but failed to do so.
You may well be right on Boris. But if we are to have a one year transition someone, somewhere in government needs to start planning for it and working out how to get the EU27 to agree.
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
Single market tories will still view a Corbyn govt as a bigger problem.
If May gives private assurances and says she will keep open potential for her successor to extend the transition period/determine final nature of Brexit... surely that will be enough to keep them on board?
Why private?
So basically, give in to Labours position?
If she publicly says I will go on x date then that will undermine her authority hugely... she needs to keep her party together - and I think that means giving remainder tories hope that her successor might have the chance to keep uk in single market.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
OGH's OP reminds us that pairing has stopped, so Labour will be looking to ambush the government (and I expect CCHQ will already have tapped up any Tory donors with private jets that can be made available to fly the DUP back from Northern Ireland at very short notice).
The spin will be that Labour is playing games while Brexit is the most vital issue facing Britain since 1940 -- so important that everyone's gone on holiday for three months.
The big question over Labour's unambiguouell do so.
It is possible
For sure. But if everyone sticks to the script it will make it much easier fs the cliff edge.
It is a rather "cake and eat it" position by Labour, but on the face of it very sale able. Not likely to survive contact with reality of course, but that is fine in opposition without an immediate election on the cards.
All the talk of 1 vs 2 year transitions hinges on a deal being signed off by both parties, the default is no transition, just hard Brexit on day 1. No deal means no transition.
Yep, it's just about the perfect position for an opposition to take right now. Total cake and eat it. Just like the Tories, but with no obligation to deliver.
But 2 years is now 4 years or more ! Ha ha ! I would prefer UK to come out of the EU and then have a transitional arrangement until ....... the end of this century.
We're going over the cliff edge. It's clear the .
the real negotiaions havent even started yet, theyre all waiting on the German elections
Barnier will do what Merkel tells him
He already is!
So the Brexiteers expect Merkel to pull our nuts out of the fire?
Methinks that not a very cunning plan...
the best thing about a week in Germany and Austria has been to see how irrelevant Brexit now is to their politics
it hardly gets a mention
the 12 month remainer sulkathon will end in October when Germany gets a new government, after that things will move on
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
'The GE', as referenced above, which hasn't changed govt Brexit policy one bit.
As I say, Remainers get overexcited. They've forgotten how to reason about this issue.
People voted to leave, and leave we shall. Rejoice.
TMay went into the election to secure mandate for her Brexit plans. The was the expressed purpose for going to the country 3 years early. She failed to get a majority and therefore for has no mandate.
Some would argue that the later general election supersedes the advisory referendum.
And at that election people voted overwhelmingly for parties that were explicit that Brexit should and would happen and would be of the harder variety.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before holding the election. I mean, I get the rationale for holding the election after A50 (fear of expenses prosecutions, problematic mandate illustrated by the budget fallout, fantastic local/mayoral results backing up the opinion polls etc) but A50 was her Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn out. She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking) The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Brexiteers like David Davis had years to come to grips with how the EU works, how FTAs are done, how complex leaving would be. It turns out they didn't bother.
Or rather your view of Brexit which is basically we should leave the EU and then effectively rejoin straight away with full single market membership, full membership of the customs union, full continued payments to the EU and no controls on free movement.
That is not going to happen, I am now increasingly of the view that when May departs in summer 2019 it will be a Davis v Boris contest which Boris will win on a platform of a 1 year transition period maximum. He could then call a spring 2020 general election once that transition period has ended on a platform of full Brexit from then on leaving Corbyn standing on a policy of extending that transition period long after the general election if he wins it and continued free movement for years to come
Dream on, if you trust Boris. And you are assuming yet again that ‘the people’ will be happy with, for example, at least a 10% increase in the cost of Spanish holidays.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
Not quite the same. The Tories are opposed to being in Single Market.
The difference is that Starmer can deliver it as not having to deal with the headbangers refusing the European courts, payments, and doesn't have to assuage post imperial fantisies of Anglosphere trade deals.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
Not quite the same. The Tories are opposed to being in Single Market.
The difference is that Starmer can deliver it as not having to deal with the headbangers refusing the European courts, payments, and doesn't have to assuage post imperial fantisies of Anglosphere trade deals.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
Indeed, Starmer has just given a Leaver like Boris an open goal for the 2020 general election with working class Leave voters who voted for Corbyn in June. They did so after Corbyn promised Labour would end free movement and they are the ones who were most impacted by Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004 on the new accession nations.
If the next Tory leader neutralises the negatives of the last campaign by dumping the dementia tax and looking at ending the 1% public sector pay cap they will be able to attack Corbyn for abandoning 'true Brexit' and the immigration controls most Leavers want in a way May was not able to
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David It turns out they didn't bother.
Or rather your view of Brexit which is basically we should leave the EU and then effectively rejoin straight away with full single market membership, full membership of the customs union, full continued payments to the EU and no controls on free movement.
My view on Brexit is irrelevant to the fact that David Davis and other Brexiteers had years to understand how the EU works, how FTAs are done anf how complex leaving would be, but failed to do so.
You may well be right on Boris. But if we are to have a one year transition someone, somewhere in government needs to start planning for it and working out how to get the EU27 to agree.
The EU works by setting the rules which members, including of the EEA, have to obey, eg continued free movement a requirement for single market access, if we are going to leave the EU then at least in the short term that requires leaving the single market to control free movement. Fox and Boris have both been working on FTAs with nations outside the EU.
A one year transition is fairly simple ie we allow continued free movement and payments to the EU for that year then stop them once that year is up, provided we do so the EU cannot stop us having single market membership for that year
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
Not quite the same. The Tories are opposed to being in Single Market.
The difference is that Starmer can deliver it as not having to deal with the headbangers refusing the European courts, payments, and doesn't have to assuage post imperial fantisies of Anglosphere trade deals.
Grin.
Just the tiny problem of not being in Govt, eh?
That's precisly the point. Labour does not have to deliver. The Tories do. They have promised that the Brexit Britain they are taking us to will be a fairer, more prosperous country. That's what they'll be judged on.
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
It's hard to see why any small business owner would support a Corbyn-led party. They'd be under the cosh, if Corbyn became PM.
it's also hard to see why they'd support the conservatives
The Conservatives may not be that great, but they're not giving them a hard time.
That wasn't the perception of the ones I was talking to. Though of course there are several million small business owners so finding 4 of them sympathetic to Labour is not proof of anything very much. It was curious though to hear the public sector worker arguing that leaving the EU would open us to a wider world and the traders saying they really wanted to keep in step with EU regulations. The conclusion I drew was that neither of the big parties could rely on automatic support from their natural base. If so the days of triangulation might be over. That might be a good thing. Making a positive case for why people should vote for your party sounds a lot healthier than just demonising the enemy.
I see Remainers are letting themselves get all overexcited again this morning.
Golden rule of Brexit is that the better Remainers think something is for them, the worse it plays for them in the country:
- Obama - Osborne and his various predictions of doom - Debates - The actual vote - Gina Miller's Legal challenge - The GE - Keir Starmer
You'd think they'd have learned by now...
I notice you ignore Mrs. May's vanity project election on June 8th -
I still don't get why she triggered A50 before Ace card.
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour. The core/client vote didn't fully turn if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
Most foolishly of all, she triggered A50 without understanding how the departure process would work and without having a fully developed negotiation strategy.
David Cameron was set to trigger A50 the day after the vote despite no preparation for the process.
Brexiteers like David It turns out they didn't bother.
Or rather your view of Brexit which is basically we should leave the EU and then effectively rejoin straight away with full single market membership, full membership of the customs union, full continued payments to the EU and no controls on free movement.
My view on Brexit is leaving would be, but failed to do so.
You may well be ret the EU27 to agree.
The EU works by setting the rules which members, including of the EEA, have to obey, eg continued free movement a requirement for single market access, if we are going to leave the EU then at least in the short term that requires leaving the single market to control free movement. Fox and Boris have both been working on FTAs with nations outside the EU.
A one year transition is fairly simple ie we allow continued free movement and payments to the EU for that year then stop them once that year is up, provided we do so the EU cannot stop us having single market membership for that year
We'll see. But more important is planning for what happens after that. It is true that Boris went to Australia and was told that an FTA with the UK would be great once one had been done with the EU. As for Mr Fox, his knowledge of FTAs is so vast he believes doing one with the EU would be the easiest in history - which tells you he knows nothing about negotiating FTAs!!
Labour going for "soft" Brexit makes them the party of business, which is a strange place for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe not so strange. I was at a dinner in the home counties last week. The only outspoken Tory was a teacher. The small business owners were all pro Labour. Small sample size but it was quite eye opening.
It's hard to see why any small business owner would support a Corbyn-led party. They'd be under the cosh, if Corbyn became PM.
it's also hard to see why they'd support the conservatives
The Conservatives may not be that great, but they're not giving them a hard time.
That wasn't the perception of the ones I was talking to. Though of course there are several million small business owners so finding 4 of them sympathetic to Labour is not proof of anything very much. It was curious though to hear the public sector worker arguing that leaving the EU would open us to a wider world and the traders saying they really wanted to keep in step with EU regulations. The conclusion I drew was that neither of the big parties could rely on automatic support from their natural base. If so the days of triangulation might be over. That might be a good thing. Making a positive case for why people should vote for your party sounds a lot healthier than just demonising the enemy.
I agree. It must be a good thing that if you're a Tory, you can't assume that people living in posh houses will vote for you, regardless, at the same time as assuming there's no point campaigning in council estates, and the same goes for Labour in reverse.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittl...
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
Not quite the same. The Tories are opposed to being in Single Market.
The difference is that Starmer can deliver it as not having to deal with the headbangers refusing the European courts, payments, and doesn't have to assuage post imperial fantisies of Anglosphere trade deals.
Grin.
Just the tiny problem of not being in Govt, eh?
That's precisly the point. Labour does not have to deliver. The Tories do. They have promised that the Brexit Britain they are taking us to will be a fairer, more prosperous country. That's what they'll be judged on.
That wouldn't explain why some fervent Remainers think this means we're not leaving, tho....
It seems there is always good money in wanting to see a great black boxer beaten by a white slugger.Glad for boxing that Mayweather won .However as I said the other day apart from the big money this is more of an exhibition than true sporting contest.
You've clearly had a far more mature response to the referendum result than others. Kudos.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittl...
Thank you for your respectful response. I admit it does puzzle me why so many people on both sides are still fighting a battle that has been won and lost already. The debate now should be about what kind of UK we want to be post departure. I'm finding politics and political debate rather depressing at the moment - which is why I don't read PB as much these days and also why, despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't feel like engaging with my party at the moment... and don't even get me started on Vince Cable...
Yes, Starmer has just outlined the sort of soft Brexit policy that the LDs should espouse. I wished Lamb to stand so that we as a party could debate the stance. Instead we had a Vince coronation. This was a major mistake, though he probably would have won due to the new members.
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Starmer's policy is basically what the Govt are going for, apart from perhaps a difference on the length of the transition. Of course he wouldn't be able to achieve the FOM reforms, mind.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
Not quite the same. The Tories are opposed to being in Single Market.
The difference is that Starmer can deliver it as not having to deal with the headbangers refusing the European courts, payments, and doesn't have to assuage post imperial fantisies of Anglosphere trade deals.
Grin.
Just the tiny problem of not being in Govt, eh?
That's precisly the point. Labour does not have to deliver. The Tories do. They have promised that the Brexit Britain they are taking us to will be a fairer, more prosperous country. That's what they'll be judged on.
That wouldn't explain why some fervent Remainers think this means we're not leaving, tho....
Comments
Still, I won't bet on boxing again. I doubt any more 'Boxing legend v non-boxer' matches will happen.
and if her press isnt reporting it it shows how important your personal infactuation is in the grand scheme of things currently her biggest problem is german attitudes to immigration which is costing her support
the most thought provoking thing I picked up on reading the german press was Wolfgang Schauble is 74, so not automatically slotted in for a full term as Finance minister becasue of his age, that will change German attitudes
Likewise since the german press has slotted in a Merkel victory the press is already speculating on who will succeed her as they think this will be her last term and there is no successor in view
With the Conservatives pitching themselves as the party of reactionary xenophobia, there's quite a lot of ground open to Labour to occupy.
I'm trying to move on too - we won, and should be happy with that. I suspect years of belittling and months of attempts to undermine the result rankle with some, but I'm finding it all rather juvenile and easy to come past now.. But I hope we can all grow up a bit soon, and move away from calling the prime minister malevolent or wrongly auggesting Leavers are comparing the EU to Nazi Germany when they're in fact rejoicing in the spirit and heritage of our nation, or indeed, calling those who lost Remoaners.
I do not understand labour's position on no change over a four year transistion and a wish list that the EU will change it's freedom of movement principles. It is the ultimate 'cake and eat it' proposition and enshrines the ECJ in UK law and requires us to continue paying into the EU.
I expect a broadside from those who want to control immigration, restore UK laws, and to stop paying into the EU and have doubts that this will be popular among voters generally.
Furthermore the uncertainty stretches into the distant future curbing investment and failing to provide certainty to business.
The process is complex and no one can tell how this will end but remaining in the EU, or any suggestion we do, is unlikely to be acceptable to the majority
Force India's been very reliable, and has good pace, and good drivers. It's not a dead cert by any stretch of the imagination but, as you say, it's happened an awful lot. The only teams with more double points finishes are Mercedes and Ferrari.
Edited extra bit: come to think of it, Ferrari and Force India might be tied.
The french press is worried about the upcoming strikes if Macron is going to take on the Unions, Germany is worried about Euro being overvalued and the impact of dieselgate on its car industry, Italy is in dire straits economically and Spain may see it's strongest region vote to leave the country in October.
A bit of balance might be helpful
In choosing not to (effectively) rerun the brexit referendum;
A pile of kippers went home to labour.
The core/client vote didn't fully turn out.
She failed to split the progressive/remain vote which (after JC's acceptance of brexit in ~September 2016, was the LD's for the taking)
The tories didn't mop up the labour leave vote successfully enough to win significant numbers of seats.
After triggering a50 - her voter coalition became fragile - which the campaign exposed.
The dementia tax stuff would never have gained traction if brexit was still on the table in a meaningful way.
it's not the only important item education ,housing and spending power are more important to voters as we saw in June
I'd also addd infrastructure to that list
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/901719384892301312
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/901719838619574272
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/901720209798651904
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/901720512061165568
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/901721189802008576
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/901722433312493570
IMHO that was the original killer. The campaign itself was the coup de grace.
education is about reforming a shit way of funding
housing is about loosening planning and probably a social housing programme
spending power is about addressing productivity since we are addicted to low cost wages
Brexit can have an influence but however black and white you wish to paint it the issues are multifaceted and not dependent on a single factor
Time to grow up about Brexit.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-4827058/Bella-Thorne-flashes-flesh-smouldering-snap.html
more people will read the post above than all your posts and my posts added together over the last 10 years
that's how relevant we are
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
This is a much bigger story than the Sunday Mirror article on May.
If enough Tories put country before party, we could have another GE within weeks.
Big if obviously.
You assumed far too much.
Have you seen the film? It's fantastic.
Some would argue that the later general election supersedes the advisory referendum.
--
I don't think anyone would have cared about her changing her mind about holding an election if A50 was on the table, though.
Why would the DUP want Jezza in Downing St?
I think everyone is getting a bit carried away this morning...
Edited extra bit: also, off now.
thread getting too long to edit
Any issue that touches on money is totally dependent on how Brexit turns out. A bad Brexit that squeezes government income while increasing unemployment would mean very tough new cuts to public spending, while further disincentiving business investment. A good deal might do the opposite. Until the Brexit deal is done - or we fall off the cliff edge - everything else is in limbo.
That's completely bonkers nothing is totally dependent on Brexit
Brexit has an influence as do lots of other things, some of them much more important
we went through a recession where the BoE just printed more cash - short term they will do the same again
our internal economy is much bigger than what we trade
all complex economies are multifacted to claim one event determines everything lacks perspective
If May gives private assurances and says she will keep open potential for her successor to extend the transition period/determine final nature of Brexit... surely that will be enough to keep them on board?
Rawnsley reckons there are around 20 Tories who might be persuadably over certain parts of any Brexit Bill.
Our poll tracker, which covers Great Britain only, has Labour at 42.1 per cent and the Conservatives 41.1 per cent. With a slender lead of 1pt, this would, according to our forecast model, translate into Labour still falling short of overtaking the Tories in the Commons, albeit by 10 seats.
On current polling we do not expect any party to attain a majority in the Commons. The forecast projects the Tories to take 298 seats to Labour’s 289. 13 of Labour’s gains are expected to come from Scotland and London......
We expect the Scottish National Party to come away with 25 seats, down 10 on June, and the Liberal Democrats to net 3, totaling 15.
http://britainelects.com/2017/08/26/tories-would-still-be-the-largest-party-in-parliament-if-an-election-were-held-today-forecast-suggests/
What's going to happen is... Nothing's going to happen. A50 will continue. The government will negotiate our exit. The "deal" will be put before Parliament where it will narrowly get through and we'll leave the EU, probably with a two year transition.
Tezza quits in 2019 and the next election will depend on the end of the transition period.
OK, now we're sorted until 2022 I'm off out to enjoy the late summer sunshine.
Play nicely everyone...
I think Starmers policy is quite realistic, and that free movement would be acceptable to all but the fanatics if it carried no entitlement to benefits, including in work benefits.
Oh no wait!
James Chapman to the rescue!
As you were......
So basically, give in to Labours position?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/aug/26/the-princess-myth-hilary-mantel-on-diana?CMP=twt_gu
That is not going to happen, I am now increasingly of the view that when May departs in summer 2019 it will be a Davis v Boris contest which Boris will win on a platform of a 1 year transition period maximum. He could then call a spring 2020 general election once that transition period has ended on a platform of full Brexit from then on leaving Corbyn standing on a policy of extending that transition period long after the general election if he wins it and continued free movement for years to come
Unless she resigns as leader in, say, April, announces new leader in July and allows them to run in as DPM for 6 weeks over the summer?
It just doesn't make sense to me. Once a new leader is elected she can't remain as PM - that's just silly.
You may well be right on Boris. But if we are to have a one year transition someone, somewhere in government needs to start planning for it and working out how to get the EU27 to agree.
she needs to keep her party together - and I think that means giving remainder tories hope that her successor might have the chance to keep uk in single market.
Don't understand why it has fooled Remainers into thinking we could then Remain, tho?
BTW, would have no problem with immigration if it didn't include access to state provision. But then I am not competing for jobs with EU citizens. If I were, then i might not be so sanguine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2017
The difference is that Starmer can deliver it as not having to deal with the headbangers refusing the European courts, payments, and doesn't have to assuage post imperial fantisies of Anglosphere trade deals.
Just the tiny problem of not being in Govt, eh?
If the next Tory leader neutralises the negatives of the last campaign by dumping the dementia tax and looking at ending the 1% public sector pay cap they will be able to attack Corbyn for abandoning 'true Brexit' and the immigration controls most Leavers want in a way May was not able to
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/10/meet-the-ex-chief-of-staff-to-the-brexsec-now-the-de-facto-brexit-opposition-leader/
https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/901563707708362752
A one year transition is fairly simple ie we allow continued free movement and payments to the EU for that year then stop them once that year is up, provided we do so the EU cannot stop us having single market membership for that year