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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters belie
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters believed that £350m a week would be coming to the NHS
In its August poll Opinium, which was one of the most accurate at the EU referendum, asked about whether at the time voters had believed the Leave Campaign on the £350m a week coming back to the NHS. There were the possible repsones:
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Comment was something like aren’t ‘memory’ polls notoriously unreliable?
My reply was that polls routinely find 100% of people voted for Kennedy in 1960, and added that hindsight is not reliable.
Are we going back to discussing making bombs now? Probably not a good idea.
I've kept my eye on the news this morning for reports of the police knocking on JJ's door!
Labour Would Have Won General Election If UK Had Ditched 'Broken' Electoral System.
'The vast majority of votes are going to waste, with millions still stuck in the electoral black hole of winner-takes-all.'
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_5996e0b9e4b0e8cc855d1c5f/amp?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004
She could have won a majority if she had framed her social care policy correctly so people realised it was more generous than what we have now.
She could have won a majority by offering a positive vision for the future.
She could have won a majority by getting out there and meeting real people rather than just Tory activists.
She could have won a majority by not trying to make a political point following two terrorist attacks.
Instead she nearly lost to an elderly populist with the IQ of a dead stoat running on a delusional prospectus that didn't stand up to five seconds' scrutiny and whose sole contribution to public life has been passive support of terrorism.
That's really impressive incompetence.
Where would I fit into this poll?
Let's go to London on the train.
Its a suggestion
If I say
I'm catching the train to London
Its a pledge.
The suggestion was made by an organisation that was campaigning to leave the EU, not govt.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you understand that and are simply bitter as opposed to not being able to understand.
Game-changer, eh?
Silly woman.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36672242
It may be true that they didn’t have a cat in Hell’s chance of meeting the criteria for membership, but to say they weren’t discussing it is incorrect.
Hard to disagree that May was rubbish.
As for the bus - both campaigns were full of shit. Optimistic bullshit beats pessimistic bullshit.
F1: race at the weekend, huzzah! Will check the markets later today. In the meantime, videogamer chaps and ladies might like my silly 'diary' of the first couple of days of Fallout 4. If the protagonist were a Chinese spy.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/fallout-4-diary-of-deceiver-part-1.html
https://labourlist.org/2017/08/how-labours-vote-leapt-in-the-seats-corbyn-visited-in-election-17/
Whoever leads the Conservatives and indeed Labour into the next election will need to be much bolder I think about going out and actually being seen by non-selected and potentially hostile audiences in key seats. Much though I dislike Corbyn, I have to say I think that would be no bad thing. A second contribution to public life?
The fact that it was a lie told to inflame xenophobia makes it worse. Sooner or later Leavers are going to have to make a reckoning with the campaign that they fought. Until they do, Brexit will continue to founder.
For clarification you do understand that "let's" is a suggestion rather than a pledge?
btw it really is pathetic that more than a year after the event a few poor saps are still whining about a silly poster from a pressure group. Get a life springs to mind.
I delivered leaflets, organised meetings with Dan Hannan, Craig Mackinlay and Labour Leave, I'm entirely satisfied and relaxed that I played my small part. It was made especially sweet when Cameron flounced off in tears.
You haven't stopped grizzling and whining behind a keyboard.
If you said "let's have sex tonight" and your lucky partner said "great", they'd be entitled to feel that the promise they were on had been broken if you then said, "actually, I've got a headache now".
Look in the mirror springs to mind.
The fact they've made virtually no progress to meeting the acquis is not the EU's responsibility, but it's in the EUs interest (and IMO Turkey's) for Turkey to meet most of them.
Anyway, use all the pointless analogies you like, its too late mate, you should have got off your arse.
I'm beginning to realise you'll never be able to accept it which makes it all the sweeter.
It was a clever political strategy as it turned out. Had he said £250M (which is more like the real amount), it wouldn't have been disputed and the argument would have moved straight back to "Doomed, we're all doomed", and Leave would have lost to the large powers in the mainstream media (BBC/SKY) who were pro remain (certainly up to the 28 days) and incredibly dominant, way above the impact of the news print world now.
I was against it at the time, and I was working with the Liberal Leave rather against it - but I'm not inside the bubble in the same way, and of our group only Roland Smith had any TV time to press a more accurate case.
Once we know what terms the government has negotiated, should there be a second referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, where voters can choose between leaving under the terms negotiated or remaining in the EU after all?
Excluding Don't Knows (14%)
Referendum: 44
No Referendum: 56
Apart from the debatable nature of the options posed 'remaining in the EU after all' that can't give enormous heart to the 'Second Referendum' team....
The actions of the EU and of Cameron made that attack line possible, even though I didn’t personally like Farage’s campaign and I don’t think he converted many floating voters with his xenophobia in the last week or two.
From 2010:
David Cameron has promised to "fight" for Turkey's membership of the European Union, saying he is "angry" at the slow pace of negotiations.
On his first visit as prime minister, he said the country could become a "great European power", helping build links with the Middle East.
He compared hostility to the membership bid in some parts of the EU with the way the UK's entry was once regarded.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-10767768
Mind you, Corbyn's better than some of the UKIP leadership candidates. He's possibly slightly better than Michael Gove as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIYq5xMW98I
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740282804819402752
As I said, Leavers have yet to confront their own campaign. Until they do, Leave can be nothing other than a disaster.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/898990456461295616
Would you have preferred Cameron to call for no talks, and for Turkey to p*ss off into another sphere of interest such as Russia? How would that be in our interests?
UKIP should have taken a leaf out of the book of the Anti-Corn Law League - when the Corn Laws were repealed in 1846, it didn't bugger about trying to redefine itself, it held a massive celebratory banquet and unanimously voted to wind itself up as the job was done.
As a result it has remained in popular memory as a successful campaigning organisation while UKIP tries to work out whether one of its leadership hopefuls genuinely believes a horny donkey made unwelcome advances to his horse.
No, she's a careerist, with almost no hard or core political beliefs, simply a manager, not a leader.
We can't be far off from a Kipper talking about forced repatriations of Darkies.
A minority?
Anyway, it doesn’t bother me any more. Because we won, and we will leave the EU. Watching a significant section of the intelligencia and commentariat still squealing about it 14 months later is hillarious.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2012/12/just-6pc-of-the-british-realise-that-the-national-debt-is-rising/
A mistake encouraged by this:
' The party election broadcast the Conservatives have just released is so astonishingly dishonest that it really would have disgraced Gordon Brown. In it, the Prime Minister tells an outright – how to put it? – untruth. He says:-
“So though this government has had to make some difficult decisions, we are making progress. We’re paying down Britain’s debts.”
David Cameron’s policy is to increase Britain’s debt by 60 per cent, more than any European country. To increase it more over five years than Labour did over 13 years. Just yesterday, we learned the national debt had hit £1,111 billion and it’s heading to £1,400 billion. '
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/david-cameron-tells-porkies-about-britains-national-debt/
The national debt currently stands at £1,753 billion.
The reason that so many CDE Leavers backed Corbynite Labour is pretty clear. They saw Brexit and Corbynism both promise to spend taxpayers money on them and their communities, with the NHS as the centrepiece. Healthy and wealthy young SPADS have little idea how marginalised people are so dependent on the welfare state.
I reported anecdata here last June from waiting room conversations that the pledge was a reason to vote Leave.
I don't think that fulfilling the pledge would save the Tory bacon though. Jezza can just promise more.
3 theories about Remainers
1. They thought Bilderberg would fix the result, no matter what happened.
2. They refrained from canvassing for fear of accidentally having to actually, you know, talk to white proles.
3. Nick Timothy was secretly in charge of their campaign.
The bigger problem comes when if they actually win they deliver a lollipop on a paper taper. (Tsipras, Trump.)
The biggest problem occurs when they try and keep their promises but prove either incompetent or mind bendingly corrupt or both, leading to humanitarian catastrophe. (Chavez/Maduro.)
Dave was Caesar, Gove was Brutus, as I foretold in early 2016.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/28/michael-gove-could-be-set-to-play-the-role-of-brutus-to-david-camerons-caesar/
...Immigration from other EU countries and elsewhere had been a topic of public concern for several years and by early 2016 was seen by most voters as the most pressing issue facing the country. This was decidedly not good news for those who wished to remain in the European Union.
Clarke, Harold D.; Goodwin, Matthew; Whiteley, Paul. Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union (Kindle Locations 742-743). Cambridge University Press. Kindle Edition.
Though another issue that Leavers need to resolve is that objections to non-EU immigrants are much stronger than EU immigrants.
I don't think Rees-Evans is anti Bulgarian. He has exercised his EU rights to build his fortified compound there, and appreciates their gun laws.
He seems value at 10 on Betfair, not least because he seems to be actively campaigning.
They were not. They were at the very early stages of negotiating to join, which is a very different matter. Cameron is to be applauded in not playing on the xenophobia (as you mentioned below), even if that might have helped a victory.
God knows how much the Conservatives wasted on focus groups when all they had to do was read PB.
For the moment I'm concerned with those Leavers for whom immigration is not the paramount concern. So the free traders and sovereigntists. (The anti-immigration gang will still be running around celebrating right up to the point that they lose their jobs or the local hospital shuts down, so they aren't worth bothering with for now.)
Following the referendum result, that group of Leavers appealed to Remainers to make common cause with them to secure an EEA-type deal for now. Unsurprisingly, that bombed. Why on earth would Remainers make common cause with people who had behaved cynically and despicably but were entirely unrepentant, for the Remain side to take the rap for what the Faragites would label a betrayal of the referendum vote? The next stab in the back from the EEA Leavers was telegraphed a mile off. It was in any case wholly inconsistent with how the referendum was won.
So the entire post-referendum process has been driven by the headbangers. You can see the distaste and creeping fear of the EEA Leavers but they have to date taken no responsibility for the state of affairs that they in large part created.
What can they do about it now? Until there is some public and clear acknowledgement at the most senior level that they allowed themselves to be carried along with a campaign and a prospectus that with hindsight they now deeply regret for its meaning and impact, the headbangers will win. So they need to start there.
This will involve severe loss of credibility. But it will also put the headbangers for the first time on the defensive. It will send a powerful message to Remain supporters (and the EU, no bad thing for negotiations) that some Leavers are putting their country rather than their ideology first.
Where things go from there, I don't know. But that, followed by the inevitable public debate on these matters, must be the necessary first step.
"Watching a significant section of the intelligencia and commentariat still squealing about it 14 months later is hillarious."
It is a guilty pleasure. One we should really not indulge in. These people are hurting, they're not used to losing. Being superior is what they live for.
As they said to the electorate. "I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams."
The three-league boots from we Neanderthals came as a shock.
The only problem is there are so many of them!
Do it alphabetically.
Start with the Angles.......
"Following the referendum result, that group of Leavers appealed to Remainers to make common cause with them to secure an EEA-type deal for now. "
Not after - Before.
The last weekend before the vote, ASI released polling via the Telegraph showing that an interim EEA deal was both popular and acceptable to a large number of voters across the political spectrum. It was embargoed until that last Sunday for maximum effect.
c.f. Trump supporters...