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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters belie

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    WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A few thoughts from Israel:-

    1. There are a lot of French here - and not just holidaymakers. The papers have articles about some of the red tape stopping French nurses from worling in the Israeli health service. I find it depressing that one group which has indisputably contributed so much to European civilisation should feel that it may no longer have a future in our continent.
    2. There has been extensive coverage of (a) the Charlottesville affair with universal disgust at Trump's moral equivocations and the use of Nazi flags at the demos. The focus has been, understandably, more on the anti-Semitism of the marchers (the references to not letting Jews take over and Trump's daughter being married to a Jew) than on the Civil War aspects. And (b) on the survey of British Jews and their fears for the future. Britain - and the Lanour party - do not come out of that looking good.
    3. I am surprised that the Spanish authorities have been so quick to say that they have closed down the cell which carried out the Barcelona/Cambrils atrocities when the driver of the van ie the principal murderer is still at large. Where is he? Who is hiding him? What other associates might he have? Etc etc. Closed down, my arse! Sure - we don't want to live in a state of terror but a little less denial about the risk by the authorities is perhaps warranted, no?

    And, pace @AlistairMeeks, no larks tongues here. Though the hummus is a revelation......

    Politics makes for strange bedfellows...

    https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/899220874921992192

    Israeli hummous and falafals are indeed delicious. The Sabra brand is imported and sold in Sainsbury's, Far better than UK made. The Sabra Baba Ganoush is worth seeking out too.
    Nazis who support Israel are good Nazis those that don't aren't.
    Plenty of bonkers pro-Zionist anti-Semites among the Eastern European far-right too.

    As Chesterton wrote: 'There is an attitude which my friends and I were for a long period rebuked and even reviled; and of which at the present period we are less likely than ever to repent. It was always called Anti-Semitism; but it was always much more true to call it Zionism.'

    Surely should complicate the image we have when we start saying anti-Zionism is a form of anti-Semitism, and buying into redefinitions that make opposition to the Israeli state a form of anti-Semitism. Though there is a strong argument that anti-Zionism is bonkers for its own mostly separate reasons...
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    GeoffM said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s weird. I posted apparently seconds before JohnO but my post’s vanished!

    Comment was something like aren’t ‘memory’ polls notoriously unreliable?

    You posted on the spare thread. You can still see it via Vanilla Forums.

    My reply was that polls routinely find 100% of people voted for Kennedy in 1960, and added that hindsight is not reliable.
    Sir Ian Botham has observed that more people have shaken his hand and said they were at Headingley in 1981 than could have physically fitted into the ground.
    What happened at Headingley in 1981?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    ydoethur said:

    surbiton said:

    He said Indians, not Pakistanis ! He clearly does not want to deport our off-spinner whose all round record is better than Stokes, few people notices that.

    I notice. In fact, I still don't get why he's at 8 not 5
    If it ain't broke, don't fix it. There's enough about the current side that is broken!
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    ... the daily repeats are becoming a bit of a bore though. Hence many people have left the site

    Driven away by Brexit...

    That's one of them mettyfors, isn't it?
    Driven away by people who can't take being wrong and bore on and on about how they're right

    Farage will not be in the debates
    Monty Hall
    etc
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    BoZo will never live it down
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,799
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Opinium poll linked by Carlotta in the last thread shows things very stable - Labour +3, up 1 on last Opinium, with May fractionally ahead on best PM. Interestingly, relatively few people about a quarter) strongly disapprove of either leader - I think the general view of May is that she's a bit meh, but there was pretty entrenched disapproval of Corbyn a while back which seems to have largely evaporated.

    I don't think you've convinced ydoethur, though...


    Mind you, Corbyn's better than some of the UKIP leadership candidates. He's possibly slightly better than Michael Gove as well.
    "Gay donkey raped my horse" man is campaigning for mass removals of non ethnic Brits, aiming for net emigration of a million per year.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/898990456461295616
    I am not a fan of repatriation at all but surely if he was going to target anyone gypsies, Bulgarians or radical Islamists would gain far more support than British Indians, most of whom are hard working and law abiding?
    Are all the Indian medical staff in in the NHS going to be encouraged to leave - in which case we would have no health service.

    No idea why you are commenting on a bloke that will never remotely influence govt. Its no better than "a boke in the pub says....."
    I suspect when kippers start talking about repatriation that their 1950s mindset leads them to think that anyone not white-skinned is straight off the Windrush; in other words, Mr gay donkey would be surprised and disappointed at the number of brown and black people remaining in the country after every single person who could be repatriated, had been.
    The bloke is full on mental, have you seen him speak? Ukip should have just jacked it in when Farage quit as leader, they are following the same well trodden path of a football team who go downhill after a successful manager leaves. The 2014-2016 era was their 15 mins of fame
    The final nail for the SDP was when the Official Monster Raving Loony Party beat them in the 1990 Bootle by-election, which David Dutton memorably called 'the most important achievement of the latter's overlong and undistinguished lifetime.' (He never had much sense of humour, Dutton.)

    I think we're looking at something similar for UKIP.
    If UKIP insist on repatriating my other half, will they give her time to clean behind the fridge before she goes?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    Just had to check that was what I thought it was. Why are they making the English League Cup draw in China?

    Who else still calls it the Milk Cup?
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    #bestwordpressthemes
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    #wptemplate.#wptheme
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    A selective example of which there may be many, but there are also serious negative impacts on Africa from the way it trades (especially in Agriculture) with EU states.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-s-food-imports-pose-tricky-balance-for-hungry-africans/

    http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

    It's not always a good deal for Africa, and in fact since the alteration of the old Preferential Treatment Deals that EU nations had with the ACP (WTO case was brought by the USA), the commission has rather exploited the situation to open up African Markets at great advantage to the EU.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited August 2017
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,046
    Mr. Rentool, quite. Most consternation (one recent housing development which is to be flattened aside) here is people being annoyed HS2 isn't coming near enough.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    If I understand things right, we only bring in tariff-free food from the basket case economies (like Zimbabwe). As soon as an African economy gets its act together and starts growing to a lower middle income level, the tariffs go up again. It's hard to think of a bigger disincentive to economic reform.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    It's done under the Generalised System of Preferences, which allows non quota zero tariff access as a get around for the Most Favoured Nation general tariff levels for the least developed nations.

    In nations where the level of development is beyond a certain point, then quotas are used, and /or reduced tariffs. As the nations open up though, the EU can send produce back the other way which tends to be less good for the African Market as EU farmers can dump surplus into Africa in sectors where they have a productive advantage.
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    Bar chart on where Department for Transport staff live.
    https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/889830144684281856

    The notion that anyone would want to travel to anywhere other than London will be totally lost on them. Leeds to Manchester? Surely not!
    Dept of Transport building HS2 so they can get from London to northern parts and back the same day without having to stay overnight there.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited August 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Just had to check that was what I thought it was. Why are they making the English League Cup draw in China?

    Who else still calls it the Milk Cup?
    Rumbelows Cup in Sheffield, after Wednesday's defeat of Manchester United in 1991.

    But beat this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/video/2016/oct/26/donald-trump-helps-league-cup-fifth-round-draw-1991-video
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A few thoughts from Israel:-

    1. There are a lot of French here - and not just holidaymakers. The papers have articles about some of the red tape stopping French nurses from worling in the Israeli health service. I find it depressing that one group which has indisputably contributed so much to European civilisation should feel that it may no longer have a future in our continent.
    2. There has been extensive coverage of (a) the Charlottesville affair with universal disgust at Trump's moral equivocations and the use of Nazi flags at the demos. The focus has been, understandably, more on the anti-Semitism of the marchers (the references to not letting Jews take over and Trump's daughter being married to a Jew) than on the Civil War aspects. And (b) on the survey of British Jews and their fears for the future. Britain - and the Lanour party - do not come out of that looking good.
    3. I am surprised that the Spanish authorities have been so quick to say that they have closed down the cell which carried out the Barcelona/Cambrils atrocities when the driver of the van ie the principal murderer is still at large. Where is he? Who is hiding him? What other associates might he have? Etc etc. Closed down, my arse! Sure - we don't want to live in a state of terror but a little less denial about the risk by the authorities is perhaps warranted, no?

    And, pace @AlistairMeeks, no larks tongues here. Though the hummus is a revelation......

    Politics makes for strange bedfellows...

    https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/899220874921992192

    Israeli hummous and falafals are indeed delicious. The Sabra brand is imported and sold in Sainsbury's, Far better than UK made. The Sabra Baba Ganoush is worth seeking out too.
    Does it say "Made in Israel" ?
    Yes it does.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Scott_P said:

    Fenster said:

    It'd be difficult to see what hand the Remainers would play next time

    It would depend on the teams, again.

    Many of the prominent leavers have disowned their own campaign messages.

    A ruthless remain campaign would play their "change of heart" over and over again.

    The interesting question of course is which side would BoZo be on?
    Boris would have to campaign for Brexit. Even if his head isn't entirely in it, I suspect his heart - from a libertarian point of view - is. And his career would be basically over if he flip-flopped again.

    But anyway, there is a lower percentage of people like you (educated, well-informed and with great opportunities in life) than there are people like me (largely uneducated, poor area, pretty skint (my fault - I live for the now!)... and people like me aren't going to vote for/fall for any 'change of heart', clever politics Remain stuff. They want hope/change/to be listened to/politicians to be accountable... the EU and its supporters haven't done well on convincing anybody on that front.

    I was in Chelsea last week, on King's Road. I can fully understand that a lawyer living round there, with £10,000 items of furniture in shop windows, and the scent of success everywhere, would be frustrated that a skint, exhausted factory worker in my village has the same sway in an election campaign as he or she does. And even more frustrated that he or she is hugely outnumbered.

    Whether their skintness is directly EU-related or not is a moot point. They wanted their say, and as Shipman eloquently wrote, the referendum give them a once in a lifetime opportunity to show the establishment a collective middle finger,
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    CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304
    edited August 2017

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    If I understand things right, we only bring in tariff-free food from the basket case economies (like Zimbabwe). As soon as an African economy gets its act together and starts growing to a lower middle income level, the tariffs go up again. It's hard to think of a bigger disincentive to economic reform.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,799

    Sandpit said:

    Just had to check that was what I thought it was. Why are they making the English League Cup draw in China?

    Who else still calls it the Milk Cup?
    Rumbelows Cup in Sheffield, after Wednesday's defeat of Manchester United in 1991.

    But beat this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/video/2016/oct/26/donald-trump-helps-league-cup-fifth-round-draw-1991-video
    I remember The Full Members' Cup.

    I'll let you all make up your own jokes...
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sandpit said:

    Just had to check that was what I thought it was. Why are they making the English League Cup draw in China?

    Who else still calls it the Milk Cup?
    I call it the League Cup. But then I still call the Football League the Football League.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    I'm not sure the Davos A list will enjoy being reminded how they were trounced by a simple fib.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    For hummus, buy Sabra (which means Israel-born Jews, as opposed to somebody from the diaspora moving there which is aliyah).

    I think Israeli couscous (giant couscous) also beats the conventional kind.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Fenster said:

    But anyway, there is a lower percentage of people like you (educated, well-informed and with great opportunities in life) than there are people like me (largely uneducated, poor area, pretty skint (my fault - I live for the now!)... and people like me aren't going to vote for/fall for any 'change of heart', clever politics Remain stuff. They want hope/change/to be listened to/politicians to be accountable... the EU and its supporters haven't done well on convincing anybody on that front.

    I was in Chelsea last week, on King's Road. I can fully understand that a lawyer living round there, with £10,000 items of furniture in shop windows, and the scent of success everywhere, would be frustrated that a skint, exhausted factory worker in my village has the same sway in an election campaign as he or she does. And even more frustrated that he or she is hugely outnumbered.

    Whether their skintness is directly EU-related or not is a moot point. They wanted their say, and as Shipman eloquently wrote, the referendum give them a once in a lifetime opportunity to show the establishment a collective middle finger,

    If that is true, the tragedy of course is that the people who voted for Brexit will be the ones hurt by it.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    I'm not sure the Davos A list will enjoy being reminded how they were trounced by a simple fib.
    I think they are more upset that their own fibs didn't land.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Sandpit said:

    Just had to check that was what I thought it was. Why are they making the English League Cup draw in China?

    Who else still calls it the Milk Cup?
    I call it the Worthless Cup (except if Arsenal actually win it).
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    I'm not sure the Davos A list will enjoy being reminded how they were trounced by a simple fib.
    Not sure that people like being lied to. Now that the two main liars are government ministers it may result in them being punished at the polls. One could say that it started at the last GE.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited August 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    I'm not sure the Davos A list will enjoy being reminded how they were trounced by a simple fib.
    The A-Listers brought it on themselves though... After Leave made the £350m suggestion I couldn't believe the way Remain kept going on about it through the rest of the campaign... Thus keeping the debate totally focused on Leave's territory. :D
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    It was the establishment figures like Boris and Gove who were behind the words on the bus of course.

    Nigel Farage and UKIP were excluded from their group and Farage consistently pointed out that the numbers on the bus were wrong.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,046
    Another day another vehicle death. Unclear as yet, it seems, whether it was terrorism or accident:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40998324
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    I'm not sure the Davos A list will enjoy being reminded how they were trounced by a simple fib.
    Not sure that people like being lied to. Now that the two main liars are government ministers it may result in them being punished at the polls. One could say that it started at the last GE.
    No polling to support that; is it a message you were picking up on the doorstep a lot?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    If I understand things right, we only bring in tariff-free food from the basket case economies (like Zimbabwe). As soon as an African economy gets its act together and starts growing to a lower middle income level, the tariffs go up again. It's hard to think of a bigger disincentive to economic reform.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    It was the establishment figures like Boris and Gove who were behind the words on the bus of course.

    Nigel Farage and UKIP were excluded from their group and Farage consistently pointed out that the numbers on the bus were wrong.

    Indeed. The main campaign seems to have been a Tory job interview rather than a lifelong conviction.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    I'm not sure the Davos A list will enjoy being reminded how they were trounced by a simple fib.
    Not sure that people like being lied to. Now that the two main liars are government ministers it may result in them being punished at the polls. One could say that it started at the last GE.
    As several other people have already stated, if the Tories had put the £350m a week for the NHS pledge into their manifesto they'd have walked the election.

    More fool Theresa for not doing so,,,
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TonyE said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    A selective example of which there may be many, but there are also serious negative impacts on Africa from the way it trades (especially in Agriculture) with EU states.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-s-food-imports-pose-tricky-balance-for-hungry-africans/

    http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

    It's not always a good deal for Africa, and in fact since the alteration of the old Preferential Treatment Deals that EU nations had with the ACP (WTO case was brought by the USA), the commission has rather exploited the situation to open up African Markets at great advantage to the EU.
    Free Trade is often the expression of imperial power.

    Similarly the NAFTA agreement has destroyed more Mexican agricultural jobs than the number of manufacturing jobs created.

    https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/11/24/what-weve-learned-from-nafta/under-nafta-mexico-suffered-and-the-united-states-felt-its-pain?referer=https://www.google.co.uk/&nytmobile=0

    Indeed the move to growing and smuggling drugs in Caribbean and Mexico is in part driven by lack of other agricultural work. It is not just British farmers and diabetes specialists who fear the import of cheap, high calorie American foodstuffs.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,240

    Bar chart on where Department for Transport staff live.
    https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/889830144684281856

    The notion that anyone would want to travel to anywhere other than London will be totally lost on them. Leeds to Manchester? Surely not!
    Dept of Transport building HS2 so they can get from London to northern parts and back the same day without having to stay overnight there.
    That rather implies they are not planning to visit Leeds until 2030....
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Still nothing from Chappers on Twitter...

    I wonder whether 09/09/17 is still on? :D
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    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    If I understand things right, we only bring in tariff-free food from the basket case economies (like Zimbabwe). As soon as an African economy gets its act together and starts growing to a lower middle income level, the tariffs go up again. It's hard to think of a bigger disincentive to economic reform.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    From your link Roasted Coffee from Gambia would have tariffs as would Beef from Rwanda.

    Also from your link tariffs would be imposed on roasted coffee from Yemen, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Somalia, Sudan, Niger, Madagascar, Morocco, Liberia, Kenya, Egypt, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast

    I saw many of those nations repeated on tariffs for beef too but can't be bothered to write them all down.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Bar chart on where Department for Transport staff live.
    https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/889830144684281856

    The notion that anyone would want to travel to anywhere other than London will be totally lost on them. Leeds to Manchester? Surely not!
    Dept of Transport building HS2 so they can get from London to northern parts and back the same day without having to stay overnight there.
    That rather implies they are not planning to visit Leeds until 2030....
    ..... at the earliest.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,240

    TonyE said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    A selective example of which there may be many, but there are also serious negative impacts on Africa from the way it trades (especially in Agriculture) with EU states.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-s-food-imports-pose-tricky-balance-for-hungry-africans/

    http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

    It's not always a good deal for Africa, and in fact since the alteration of the old Preferential Treatment Deals that EU nations had with the ACP (WTO case was brought by the USA), the commission has rather exploited the situation to open up African Markets at great advantage to the EU.
    Free Trade is often the expression of imperial power....
    It certainly was in Britain's case.
    The imposition of free trade in textiles in the 19th century facilitated the destruction of indigenous industry in China, Africa and particularly India (where we were arguably responsible for tens of millions of deaths from resulting famines in the second half of the century).
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    Of course a Savvy chancellor (so probably not Phil) would give a spin laden budget with a hefty rise for the NHS right after Brexit.

    Backed up by a pledge that once we get out of the nasty leaving bill that the spiteful Eurocrats have lumped us with for Mandy's pension, Junkers breakfast brandy and other fatcat expenses we can increase it further.

    "Brexit Dividend" will scream the Sun.

    Scott will still wail mind you.


  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/

    "African leaders would like to escape the colonial trap of being viewed simply as raw material exporters. But their efforts to add value to the materials continue to be frustrated by existing EU policies.

    Take the example of coffee. In 2014 Africa —the home of coffee— earned nearly $2.4 billion from the crop. Germany, a leading processor, earned about $3.8 billion from coffee re-exports.

    The concern is not that Germany benefits from processing coffee. It is that Africa is punished by EU tariff barriers for doing so. Non-decaffeinated green coffee is exempt from the charges. However, a 7.5 per cent charge is imposed on roasted coffee. As a result, the bulk of Africa’s export to the EU is unroasted green coffee.

    The charge on cocoa is even more debilitating. It is reported that the “EU charges (a tariff) of 30 per cent for processed cocoa products like chocolate bars or cocoa powder, and 60 per cent for some other refined products containing cocoa.”"
  • Options

    TonyE said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    A selective example of which there may be many, but there are also serious negative impacts on Africa from the way it trades (especially in Agriculture) with EU states.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-s-food-imports-pose-tricky-balance-for-hungry-africans/

    http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

    It's not always a good deal for Africa, and in fact since the alteration of the old Preferential Treatment Deals that EU nations had with the ACP (WTO case was brought by the USA), the commission has rather exploited the situation to open up African Markets at great advantage to the EU.
    Free Trade is often the expression of imperial power.

    Similarly the NAFTA agreement has destroyed more Mexican agricultural jobs than the number of manufacturing jobs created.

    https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/11/24/what-weve-learned-from-nafta/under-nafta-mexico-suffered-and-the-united-states-felt-its-pain?referer=https://www.google.co.uk/&nytmobile=0

    Indeed the move to growing and smuggling drugs in Caribbean and Mexico is in part driven by lack of other agricultural work. It is not just British farmers and diabetes specialists who fear the import of cheap, high calorie American foodstuffs.

    ".......... cheap, high calorie American foodstuffs"


    Is that good or bad though when we have food banks in the UK and billions are starving elsewhere?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    If I understand things right, we only bring in tariff-free food from the basket case economies (like Zimbabwe). As soon as an African economy gets its act together and starts growing to a lower middle income level, the tariffs go up again. It's hard to think of a bigger disincentive to economic reform.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    From your link Roasted Coffee from Gambia would have tariffs as would Beef from Rwanda.

    Also from your link tariffs would be imposed on roasted coffee from Yemen, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Somalia, Sudan, Niger, Madagascar, Morocco, Liberia, Kenya, Egypt, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast

    I saw many of those nations repeated on tariffs for beef too but can't be bothered to write them all down.
    You're misreading the data. The preferential tariff is 0% which overrides the egra omnes tariff which would apply if products of uncertain origin were re-exported.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    60% import tariffs on refined cocoa - 30% on chocolate.

    EU = protectionist racket.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought the £350m suggestion was utterly brilliant - The fact Remainers are still whining about it shows what a masterstroke it was.

    And it is one of the prime factors that will condemn Brexit and it's advocates in history.

    Doubt it.

    Sure people like you will keep whining on about it fore the next 30 years in just the same way some socialists spent decades whining about the Zinoviev letter after 1924...

    Most sensible people just look on bewilderment, shrug and leave them to it.
    Of course a Savvy chancellor (so probably not Phil) would give a spin laden budget with a hefty rise for the NHS right after Brexit.

    Backed up by a pledge that once we get out of the nasty leaving bill that the spiteful Eurocrats have lumped us with for Mandy's pension, Junkers breakfast brandy and other fatcat expenses we can increase it further.

    "Brexit Dividend" will scream the Sun.

    Scott will still wail mind you.


    ;)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Of course a Savvy chancellor (so probably not Phil) would give a spin laden budget with a hefty rise for the NHS right after Brexit.

    Backed up by a pledge that once we get out of the nasty leaving bill that the spiteful Eurocrats have lumped us with for Mandy's pension, Junkers breakfast brandy and other fatcat expenses we can increase it further.

    "Brexit Dividend" will scream the Sun.

    ROFLMAO

    I have a bridge for sale, if you're interested. Or you could ask Santa for it...
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.


  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Of course a Savvy chancellor (so probably not Phil) would give a spin laden budget with a hefty rise for the NHS right after Brexit.

    Backed up by a pledge that once we get out of the nasty leaving bill that the spiteful Eurocrats have lumped us with for Mandy's pension, Junkers breakfast brandy and other fatcat expenses we can increase it further.

    "Brexit Dividend" will scream the Sun.

    ROFLMAO

    I have a bridge for sale, if you're interested. Or you could ask Santa for it...
    As I said - not Phil..
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,929



    Net gains is meaningless when people state from a very different situation. There is no evidence that performance at the previous election matters one bit. In her first election, May has outperformed Cameron's first election.

    Surely there is strong evidence that incumbency is an advantage?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2017

    TonyE said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    A selective example of which there may be many, but there are also serious negative impacts on Africa from the way it trades (especially in Agriculture) with EU states.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/eu-s-food-imports-pose-tricky-balance-for-hungry-africans/

    http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/how-the-eu-starves-africa/

    It's not always a good deal for Africa, and in fact since the alteration of the old Preferential Treatment Deals that EU nations had with the ACP (WTO case was brought by the USA), the commission has rather exploited the situation to open up African Markets at great advantage to the EU.
    Free Trade is often the expression of imperial power.

    Similarly the NAFTA agreement has destroyed more Mexican agricultural jobs than the number of manufacturing jobs created.

    https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/11/24/what-weve-learned-from-nafta/under-nafta-mexico-suffered-and-the-united-states-felt-its-pain?referer=https://www.google.co.uk/&nytmobile=0

    Indeed the move to growing and smuggling drugs in Caribbean and Mexico is in part driven by lack of other agricultural work. It is not just British farmers and diabetes specialists who fear the import of cheap, high calorie American foodstuffs.

    ".......... cheap, high calorie American foodstuffs"


    Is that good or bad though when we have food banks in the UK and billions are starving elsewhere?
    There are now as many obese people in the world as undernourished, and obesity related diseases such as diabetes are a world wide pandemic.

    The South Pacific have the highest per capita rates, but in China, South East Asia, The Middle East, Latin America, Caribbean and urban Africa the rates are skyrocketing. In terms of calories the world is not undernourished. In the UK Obesity is inversely related to income as cheap food full of empty calories forms the staple diet, rather than high fibre, low calorie nutritious food.

    http://www.diabetesatlas.org
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,156
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,799
    Nigelb said:

    Bar chart on where Department for Transport staff live.
    https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/889830144684281856

    The notion that anyone would want to travel to anywhere other than London will be totally lost on them. Leeds to Manchester? Surely not!
    Dept of Transport building HS2 so they can get from London to northern parts and back the same day without having to stay overnight there.
    That rather implies they are not planning to visit Leeds until 2030....
    The 1803 from King's Cross arrives at 2021. Nine minutes to grab a tall skinny latte and still be ready for 2030.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited August 2017

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.
    *A* research funded by *the* Bill Gates? Is English your native language?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    surbiton said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A few thoughts from Israel:-

    1. There are a lot of French here - and not just holidaymakers. The papers have articles about some of the red tape stopping French nurses from worling in the Israeli health service. I find it depressing that one group which has indisputably contributed so much to European civilisation should feel that it may no longer have a future in our continent.
    2. There has been extensive coverage of (a) the Charlottesville affair with universal disgust at Trump's moral equivocations and the use of Nazi flags at the demos. The focus has been, understandably, more on the anti-Semitism of the marchers (the references to not letting Jews take over and Trump's daughter being married to a Jew) than on the Civil War aspects. And (b) on the survey of British Jews and their fears for the future. Britain - and the Lanour party - do not come out of that looking good.
    3. I am surprised that the Spanish authorities have been so quick to say that they have closed down the cell which carried out the Barcelona/Cambrils atrocities when the driver of the van ie the principal murderer is still at large. Where is he? Who is hiding him? What other associates might he have? Etc etc. Closed down, my arse! Sure - we don't want to live in a state of terror but a little less denial about the risk by the authorities is perhaps warranted, no?

    And, pace @AlistairMeeks, no larks tongues here. Though the hummus is a revelation......

    Politics makes for strange bedfellows...

    https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/899220874921992192

    Israeli hummous and falafals are indeed delicious. The Sabra brand is imported and sold in Sainsbury's, Far better than UK made. The Sabra Baba Ganoush is worth seeking out too.
    Does it say "Made in Israel" ?
    If it does you can head out and not buy any.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.
    *A* research funded by *the* Bill Gates? Is English your native language?
    So your critique of the research is my grammar is shoddy whilst finger typing on my phone ?

    It's true I admit it all.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    edited August 2017
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.
    *A* research funded by *the* Bill Gates? Is English your native language?
    So your critique of the research is my grammar is shoddy whilst finger typing on my phone ?

    It's true I admit it all.
    Read this thread for more on why that article, and people like Liam Fox who use it to score points, are dead wrong.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/888452975689072640
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Scott_P said:
    Does anyone remember 'Kony 2012'? American fella got together a big online campaign against an African warlord, then it all went to pot when he was arrested for public masturbation in (I think) Los Angeles.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.
    *A* research funded by *the* Bill Gates? Is English your native language?
    So your critique of the research is my grammar is shoddy whilst finger typing on my phone ?

    It's true I admit it all.
    Read this thread for more on why that article, and people like Liam Fox who use it to score points, are dead wrong.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/888452975689072640
    The Bill Gates foundation who have done amazing work in smashing malaria in Africa vs some tweets ?

    Er..
  • Options
    CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304
    edited August 2017

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    How about a country like Gambia which is doing quite well these days? I'm not sure about tomatoes, but they do beef farming there. We could also look at roasted coffee or finished chocolate products from somewhere like Rwanda.
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    Even better news, the EU has negotiated regional partnership agreements with West Africa and the East African Community so that even if these countries no longer qualify as 'least developed countries' they will maintain tariff and quota free access to European markets.
    From your link Roasted Coffee from Gambia would have tariffs as would Beef from Rwanda.

    Also from your link tariffs would be imposed on roasted coffee from Yemen, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Somalia, Sudan, Niger, Madagascar, Morocco, Liberia, Kenya, Egypt, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast

    I saw many of those nations repeated on tariffs for beef too but can't be bothered to write them all down.
    You're misreading the data. The preferential tariff is 0% which overrides the egra omnes tariff which would apply if products of uncertain origin were re-exported.
    Do you have a source for that? It doesn't make any sense that the third party tariff listed on the page for Rwanda excludes Rwanda itself. Especially when people have linked plenty of papers since showing that there is a 7.5% tariff charged on roasted coffee from Africa.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
    Just shows how all powerful the Brexit lizards are - they've spiked him for speaking the truth maaan.

  • Options
    rkrkrk said:



    Net gains is meaningless when people state from a very different situation. There is no evidence that performance at the previous election matters one bit. In her first election, May has outperformed Cameron's first election.

    Surely there is strong evidence that incumbency is an advantage?
    I've often read of an anti-incumbency effect for governments.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    .
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.
    *A* research funded by *the* Bill Gates? Is English your native language?
    So your critique of the research is my grammar is shoddy whilst finger typing on my phone ?

    It's true I admit it all.
    Read this thread for more on why that article, and people like Liam Fox who use it to score points, are dead wrong.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/888452975689072640
    The Bill Gates foundation who have done amazing work in smashing malaria in Africa vs some tweets ?

    Er..
    It's from a man called Steve Analyst. That's definitely an authentic name of a real person.
  • Options
    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does anyone remember 'Kony 2012'? American fella got together a big online campaign against an African warlord, then it all went to pot when he was arrested for public masturbation in (I think) Los Angeles.
    Was Chapman arrested for the same crime?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does anyone remember 'Kony 2012'? American fella got together a big online campaign against an African warlord, then it all went to pot when he was arrested for public masturbation in (I think) Los Angeles.
    Was Chapman arrested for the same crime?
    What was he arrested for ?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,929

    rkrkrk said:



    Net gains is meaningless when people state from a very different situation. There is no evidence that performance at the previous election matters one bit. In her first election, May has outperformed Cameron's first election.

    Surely there is strong evidence that incumbency is an advantage?
    I've often read of an anti-incumbency effect for governments.
    Fair point.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379412001485
    Finds a small effect of incumbency for Labour and Tories and a large one for Lib Dems.
    Not sure how that got on at the 2015 election though!

    My guess would be that for an individual MP there is normally a positive incumbency effect. But there may be a national anti-incumbency effect once a party has been in power for a long time....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    Even Guido has switched off comments on his Champan story. The guy clearly needs help, let’s hope he’s okay.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    TGOHF said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does anyone remember 'Kony 2012'? American fella got together a big online campaign against an African warlord, then it all went to pot when he was arrested for public masturbation in (I think) Los Angeles.
    Was Chapman arrested for the same crime?
    What was he arrested for ?
    Don't think it's been revealed yet...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,799
    Scott_P said:
    What is Ben smoking in his bong, and why is he giving up?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    edited August 2017

    You're misreading the data. The preferential tariff is 0% which overrides the egra omnes tariff which would apply if products of uncertain origin were re-exported.

    Do you have a source for that? It doesn't make any sense that the third party tariff listed on the page for Rwanda excludes Rwanda itself. Especially when people have linked plenty of papers since showing that there is a 7.5% tariff charged on roasted coffee from Africa.
    This is the source of the 7.5% claim linked from TGOHF's article.

    http://www.ico.org/documents/icc-107-7e-tariffs-trade.pdf

    It states:
    image

    And then goes on to say that only three African countries don't have preferential tariffs, and even they are not subject to the MFN tariff.

    Regarding egra omnes, it looks like the Europa website is down but I'll give you a link when it comes back.
  • Options

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    My main reluctance is that it stops us being able to bring in food tariff-free from Africa, which continues to harm African economic growth.

    We bring in food tariff-free from the vast majority of Africa today.

    Just to pick a random example: tomatoes from Zimbabwe - 0%.

    http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/measures.jsp?Lang=en&SimDate=20170821&Area=ZW&Taric=0702000007
    Do you have a source for the "vast majority"? I think that is incorrect.

    The EU also has quotas for imports as well as tariffs, which are even worse.
    Pick an African country you consider isn't a basket case and we'll check.

    You can read about the EU's partnership agreements here.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
    .
    Beef from Gambia: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0201300010?country=GM#import

    Roasted coffee from Rwanda: 0% and quota-free - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=RW#import

    For an alternative view

    https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
    That article is factually wrong.
    Ah you mean you don't like it ? Its based on a research funded by the Bill Gates.
    *A* research funded by *the* Bill Gates? Is English your native language?
    So your critique of the research is my grammar is shoddy whilst finger typing on my phone ?

    It's true I admit it all.
    Read this thread for more on why that article, and people like Liam Fox who use it to score points, are dead wrong.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/888452975689072640
    The Bill Gates foundation who have done amazing work in smashing malaria in Africa vs some tweets ?

    Er..
    It's from a man called Steve Analyst. That's definitely an authentic name of a real person.
    With a Twitter handle of "EmporersNewC".

    People who mis-spell their own Twitter handle should always be treated as telling the gospel truth right?
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does anyone remember 'Kony 2012'? American fella got together a big online campaign against an African warlord, then it all went to pot when he was arrested for public masturbation in (I think) Los Angeles.
    Was Chapman arrested for the same crime?
    I dread to think. In all seriousness I'm glad he's been released and I hope he's getting the help he needs.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,046
    Mr. Sandpit, agree entirely on Chapman.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    " Financial groups are speeding up plans to move jobs out of London after deciding they cannot wait for the UK government to negotiate a transition period and delay Britain's split from the European Union.

    Several senior City executives told Financial News that, despite initially lobbying for a long transition after the planned Brexit date of late March 2019, they have switched tactics because their firms are unable to hold on until politicians on both sides of the Channel find an agreement. "

    https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/city-firms-no-longer-prepared-to-wait-for-brexit-transition-20170821
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
    Whenever anybody describes an action as desperate it mean they are worried it might be effective.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:

    ://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/899578260690001920

    What is Ben smoking in his bong, and why is he giving up?
    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/899530101649494017
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    calum said:

    " Financial groups are speeding up plans to move jobs out of London after deciding they cannot wait for the UK government to negotiate a transition period and delay Britain's split from the European Union.

    Several senior City executives told Financial News that, despite initially lobbying for a long transition after the planned Brexit date of late March 2019, they have switched tactics because their firms are unable to hold on until politicians on both sides of the Channel find an agreement. "

    https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/city-firms-no-longer-prepared-to-wait-for-brexit-transition-20170821

    Good riddance to all those vampire squids who wants 'em, with their consumption, and their taxes and their general contribution to the wealth of the economy.

    Craft gin brewing is where it's at in the UK right now, mister.
  • Options

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
    Whenever anybody describes an action as desperate it mean they are worried it might be effective.

    You might have made that argument successfully a week ago.

    Do you seriously believe that anyone is "worried" Chapman might be effective now with hindsight?
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
    Whenever anybody describes an action as desperate it mean they are worried it might be effective.

    You might have made that argument successfully a week ago.

    Do you seriously believe that anyone is "worried" Chapman might be effective now with hindsight?
    Effective at torpedoing the continuity Remainers.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,156
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Net gains is meaningless when people state from a very different situation. There is no evidence that performance at the previous election matters one bit. In her first election, May has outperformed Cameron's first election.

    Surely there is strong evidence that incumbency is an advantage?
    I've often read of an anti-incumbency effect for governments.
    Fair point.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379412001485
    Finds a small effect of incumbency for Labour and Tories and a large one for Lib Dems.
    Not sure how that got on at the 2015 election though!

    My guess would be that for an individual MP there is normally a positive incumbency effect. But there may be a national anti-incumbency effect once a party has been in power for a long time....
    I am reminded of the guy in Clacton at the time of Carswell’s by-election, who remarked that he’d never seen the Tory MP, so was voting UKIP.

    How long ago that all seems!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited August 2017
    Marseille bus stop hit by van, one dead and driver arrested
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40998324

    Another mentally ill criminal apparently.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
    Whenever anybody describes an action as desperate it mean they are worried it might be effective.

    Ah the 'heads I win', 'tails you lose' claim.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Vince still appearing with him on 9th September ?

    Vince wasn’t ever doing so was he? I though LD HQ had squashed that one.
    I think Sir Vince might have flirted with him for a while... But then Mike and Vince threw him under the proverbial bus in a thread on Friday...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/17/calling-theresa-may-a-nazi-totally-undermines-chapmans-anti-brexit-crusade/
    Mike took him seriously at first though, just shows how desperate the Remainers are
    Whenever anybody describes an action as desperate it mean they are worried it might be effective.

    You might have made that argument successfully a week ago.

    Do you seriously believe that anyone is "worried" Chapman might be effective now with hindsight?
    Effective at torpedoing the continuity Remainers.
    The Chappers incident has basically holed any new party below the waterline.

    That is a great result for Cable and Corbyn...

    Any conspiricy theory should start from there.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited August 2017

    TGOHF said:


    Read this thread for more on why that article, and people like Liam Fox who use it to score points, are dead wrong.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/888452975689072640

    The Bill Gates foundation who have done amazing work in smashing malaria in Africa vs some tweets ?

    Er..
    It's from a man called Steve Analyst. That's definitely an authentic name of a real person.
    With a Twitter handle of "EmporersNewC".

    People who mis-spell their own Twitter handle should always be treated as telling the gospel truth right?
    It was a moderately expressed twitter thread with detailed facts offered in support and a tentative conclusion.

    Sadly it's unsurprising to see Leavers focusing on the twitter handle used.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    TGOHF said:

    The Bill Gates foundation who have done amazing work in smashing malaria in Africa vs some tweets ?

    Er..

    The article you linked was wrong, not endorsed by the Bill Gates Foundation and not even supported by its own sources. Pure political propaganda.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,929

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Net gains is meaningless when people state from a very different situation. There is no evidence that performance at the previous election matters one bit. In her first election, May has outperformed Cameron's first election.

    Surely there is strong evidence that incumbency is an advantage?
    I've often read of an anti-incumbency effect for governments.
    Fair point.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379412001485
    Finds a small effect of incumbency for Labour and Tories and a large one for Lib Dems.
    Not sure how that got on at the 2015 election though!

    My guess would be that for an individual MP there is normally a positive incumbency effect. But there may be a national anti-incumbency effect once a party has been in power for a long time....
    I am reminded of the guy in Clacton at the time of Carswell’s by-election, who remarked that he’d never seen the Tory MP, so was voting UKIP.

    How long ago that all seems!
    Haha that made me chuckle.
    What is Carswell up to these days?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TGOHF said:


    Read this thread for more on why that article, and people like Liam Fox who use it to score points, are dead wrong.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/888452975689072640

    The Bill Gates foundation who have done amazing work in smashing malaria in Africa vs some tweets ?

    Er..
    It's from a man called Steve Analyst. That's definitely an authentic name of a real person.
    With a Twitter handle of "EmporersNewC".

    People who mis-spell their own Twitter handle should always be treated as telling the gospel truth right?
    It was a moderately expressed twitter thread with detailed facts offered in support and a tentative conclusion.

    Sadly it's unsurprising to see Leavers focusing on the twitter handle used.
    Anyone who has shopped for food in Africa will find that food processing is pretty rudimentary outside South Africa. Drinking locally ground coffee and tea in Malawi is for those who quite like grit and dust. There is potential, but needs onvestment, and exports from Malawi are problematic due to poor road and rail links.

    Malawi Gin and Kuche Kuche beer are very drinkable however. Malawi Gin has a cult following amongst my friends.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Net gains is meaningless when people state from a very different situation. There is no evidence that performance at the previous election matters one bit. In her first election, May has outperformed Cameron's first election.

    Surely there is strong evidence that incumbency is an advantage?
    I've often read of an anti-incumbency effect for governments.
    Fair point.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379412001485
    Finds a small effect of incumbency for Labour and Tories and a large one for Lib Dems.
    Not sure how that got on at the 2015 election though!

    My guess would be that for an individual MP there is normally a positive incumbency effect. But there may be a national anti-incumbency effect once a party has been in power for a long time....
    I am reminded of the guy in Clacton at the time of Carswell’s by-election, who remarked that he’d never seen the Tory MP, so was voting UKIP.

    How long ago that all seems!
    That’s funny.

    Sometimes we forget just how much attention the average man in the street pays to politics, other than during a GE or national referendum campaign.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    edited August 2017
    Osborne's latest - https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-a-high-price-looms-as-brexit-reality-bites-a3616306.html

    He [Davis] wrote that “both sides need to move swiftly on to discussing our future partnership and we want that to happen after the European Council in October”. So much for constructive ambiguity about what Britain needs. Read Mr Davis’s article closely, and gone is the pretence that Britain can walk away from the table. The phrase “no deal is better than a bad deal” is absent.
This discussion has been closed.