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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister,

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  • In one weird way, Prime Minister Corbyn would be like Trump, a slave to old habits. But instead of jetting off to Florida every five seconds, he'll be outside Parliament, leading a protest against his own government.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    It's Trump vs Clinton all over: crazed populist beats arrogant, complacent establishment stiff.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    jonny83 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Can't believe I am agreeing so much with George Osborne.

    Whose coverage are you all finding the best?
    ITV seem to be holding my attention the most...

    ITV, Osborne is so sharp and spot on.
    And they replaced him.

    People should remember what 'conservative' means. Europhobes went for revolution rather then evolution, and are reaping what they sowed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The SNP are getting completely blitzed.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    MaxPB said:

    Lab gain Bury North

    God we're fucked aren't we.
    Yes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Y0kel said:

    Just as a note. Sinn Fein look like they will wipe out the SDLP, with 2 seats directly. If they stay out of Westminster then its two less to get a mathematical majority. It could be three less by end of night.

    Oh the hilarity
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Scott_P said:

    @isaby: Sorry to see long-standing Brexiteer David Nuttall lose Bury North, despite the lack of a UKIP candidate this time

    Brexit is fucked.

    Hallelujah!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    alex. said:

    Is there any chance that Boris loses?

    No. The tories have two options, Ruth or Boris. Ruth is still in Scotland. No one else has enough profile yet.
    Considering that Ruth isn't a real option, the party is fucked. If Boris is leader, Corbyn is PM.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    WESTERN ISLES HOLD BY SNP.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @isaby: Sorry to see long-standing Brexiteer David Nuttall lose Bury North, despite the lack of a UKIP candidate this time

    Brexit is fucked.

    Hallelujah!
    +1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Wimbledon under pressure
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Listening to George Osborne talking on TV is exactly like reading TSE on here.

    Uncanny.

    We are the voices of general election winning policies.

    We are the voices of lower taxation.

    We are the voices of social liberalism.
    One small silver lining, might we get our party back a little....to coin a phrase.
    Hopefully.

    I'm going flail the PBers/Tories that denied the awesomeness of Dave and George.
    Dave and George DID THIS. If Cameron had just multiplied by 2 the effort he put in to securing a sellable Remain case, he would still have looked pathetically lazy, but Remain would have got over the line. Awesome my arse.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Increased majority by Paul Flynn

    Lab+11.1
    Con+6.8
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318

    MaxPB said:

    Lab gain Bury North

    God we're fucked aren't we.
    Yes. And thanks to *you*.
    Fuck off. I had nothing to do with this awful campaign, and at every turn I've pointed out how awful Theresa May is and how awul her policies are. I've been told by other Tories (and not just on here) that parking our tanks on Labour's lawn was more important than ensuring our supporters actually bloody turned out. Northern ex-Labour voters were more important than middle England marginal voters according to them.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    SeanT said:

    alex. said:

    Is there any chance that Boris loses?

    No.
    Why not? Not remainian enough? It's London.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431

    The SNP are getting completely blitzed.

    Yes but they are getting MPs elected got 8 so far.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    The SNP are getting completely blitzed.

    Not seeing too much evidence of that. THey're coming through the middle in most places.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Kirsty Wark now saying it may be new Tory MPs in Scotland give Tories a slender majority overall

    No chance now I think
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Listening to George Osborne talking on TV is exactly like reading TSE on here.

    Uncanny.

    We are the voices of general election winning policies.

    We are the voices of lower taxation.

    We are the voices of social liberalism.
    Indeed, but unfortunately we lost the referendum
    But Parliament is sovereign which is what the Brexiteers said the referendum was about, not immigration.

    So if Parliament decides to keep us in the EU, or the single market or the customs union, hurrah for a sovereign Parliament.
    If parliament decides to keep Britain in the EU, without further consultation of the electorate, I think that would unleash far darker forces than the Brexit referendum ever did.

    A referendum on accepting a deal I can see happening. Stumbling into a fresh GE on the issue I can see too. But would they risk doing it without a referendum or election?
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Why the fuck do tbey have hourly news on the telly when tbe only people watching are those following the election anyway?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Recount for Farron according to BBC journalist Lucy Manning?!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Canterbury recount
  • glwglw Posts: 10,006
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dave and George DID THIS. If Cameron had just multiplied by 2 the effort he put in to securing a sellable Remain case, he would still have looked pathetically lazy, but Remain would have got over the line. Awesome my arse.

    I entirely agree with that and think TSE is flat out wrong. Cameron's "deal" made Brexit possible in the first place.
  • Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169

    Recount in Canterbury.

    Shit the bed.
    I have pre-emptively eaten my hat.

    Did wonder a bit after Thornberry's visit. Wouldn't be that sorry to see Brazier go TBH.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    I'd take that. Cannot see how it happens though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    edited June 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Listening to George Osborne talking on TV is exactly like reading TSE on here.

    Uncanny.

    We are the voices of general election winning policies.

    We are the voices of lower taxation.

    We are the voices of social liberalism.
    One small silver lining, might we get our party back a little....to coin a phrase.
    Hopefully.

    I'm going flail the PBers/Tories that denied the awesomeness of Dave and George.
    Dave and George DID THIS. If Cameron had just multiplied by 2 the effort he put in to securing a sellable Remain case, he would still have looked pathetically lazy, but Remain would have got over the line. Awesome my arse.
    Isn't it about time you got over your bitterness about the terrible Remain campaign? It's ancient history now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    Do you think I'll still have a job next week? :|

    http://www.orr.gov.uk/about-orr/how-we-are-funded
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    It's a damn good night to be a Remainer.

    There is now a real chance that Labour will have most seats but behind on votes.

    FPP being absolutely gamed by the millennials who were being traduced all week for being lazy and feckless on here.

    +1.

    Turns out we know way more about FPTP than Twitter would suggest.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    hunchman said:

    MaxPB said:

    MikeL said:

    Tories don't win more than 10 seats in Scotland. And she's already lost how many seats? There is ZERO chance of an overall majority. Lay hard.

    Con have only lost 3 seats so far.
    5 now.
    No way they get a majority now, even with 12 seats potentially in Scotland
    I think we'll lose about 20 in England but gain 10 in Scotland. Down 10 overall.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    In one weird way, Prime Minister Corbyn would be like Trump, a slave to old habits. But instead of jetting off to Florida every five seconds, he'll be outside Parliament, leading a protest against his own government.

    Given it's him, if the Tories are on 300 seats, and can't get a majority, they should resign and let him spend 18 months fucking himself. Which he will.

    When his Government falls, then pick up the pieces.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I don't think Labour are making enough gains from the Tories given Tory gains in Scotland to prevent a Tory government.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    LibDem gain Dunbartonshire East! Well done rcs100
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Recount for Farron according to BBC journalist Lucy Manning?!

    Oh my. It would be a pleasing result to see him out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @isaby: Sorry to see long-standing Brexiteer David Nuttall lose Bury North, despite the lack of a UKIP candidate this time

    Brexit is fucked.

    Hallelujah!
    No. It's terrible for the UK. Some of us don't have foreign boltholes to escape to. :(

    A lesson from this: ignore people who are abroad, or can escape abroad. They are insulated from their decisions.

    Real people are not.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    #GE2017: Bury North:
    Lab: 53.6% (+12.5)
    Con: 44.5% (+2.5)
    LDem: 1.9% (-0.2)
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tamworth Burton rugby use to be marginals never again safe Tory seats
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    2nd Brexit ref' this summer
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    edited June 2017
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    When was the last piece of non scottish good news for the Tories? Genuine good news, not increasing majority in a safe seat or barely holding a 10000 majority seat?

    None so far.
    Angus klaxon echoes
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited June 2017
    Chameleon said:

    alex. said:

    Is there any chance that Boris loses?

    No. The tories have two options, Ruth or Boris. Ruth is still in Scotland. No one else has enough profile yet.
    Considering that Ruth isn't a real option, the party is fucked. If Boris is leader, Corbyn is PM.
    Ruth has said before the party may split if Boris gets it. She really hates him, if she makes decent gains in Scotland she may have a kingmaker or queenmaker role, she may have major influence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lab gain Bury North

    God we're fucked aren't we.
    Yes. And thanks to *you*.
    Fuck off. I had nothing to do with this awful campaign, and at every turn I've pointed out how awful Theresa May is and how awul her policies are. I've been told by other Tories (and not just on here) that parking our tanks on Labour's lawn was more important than ensuring our supporters actually bloody turned out. Northern ex-Labour voters were more important than middle England marginal voters according to them.
    Labour increased their vote because of an anti austerity vote squeezing ex UKIP voters and LDs and Greens and SNP, not because the Tories were not sufficiently laissez-faire. They thought Brexit was done and immigration would be brought under control so they could now cast a protest vote against inequality and 7 years of austerity
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Con seat projection is going up.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Re my Scottish con seats total bet, what are we looking at?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Careless to lose Battersea

    We're losing because of hard Brexit in London and house confiscation in middle England. Theresa May is the worst Tory leader I've ever seen, worse even than IDS.
    The narrative changed the day the word 'dementia tax' entered the popular mindset. The moment people realised the Tories were coming for what was theirs.

    Of course Labour are coming for it too, and more...
    The difference is that Labour are coming for a bit from everyone instead of a lot from just those unlucky enough to have high care bills and none from everyone else. Without a crystal ball it seems an easy choice.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Imagine a referendum where all the lefties voted for the winning side, then a Tory govt just came and said "Nah we'll ignore it!"
  • I suppose the only good news for the Cons is that if there is a 2nd election in the Autumn, they can't possibly run as bad a campaign. Can they?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MaxPB said:

    The Conservatives are going down the shitter in places with expensive houses.

    Single worst policy I've ever seen announced. I and others called it on the night and we got told to shut up by Mrs May's cheerleaders. I hope they are happy now.
    If only they had focus grouped that idea on PB first.

    Instead they use SPADs consisting of well connected fuckwits, self-servers and arse-lickers.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    Recount in Canterbury.

    Shit the bed.
    I have pre-emptively eaten my hat.

    Did wonder a bit after Thornberry's visit. Wouldn't be that sorry to see Brazier go TBH.
    He did kill an Italian driving mind....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    The bastion of Hampshire North East remains solid.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    ITV the best.

    You can't beat Ozzy and Ed.

    Great stuff.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    Chameleon said:

    Recount for Farron according to BBC journalist Lucy Manning?!

    Oh my. It would be a pleasing result to see him out.
    No.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    322 now the forecast.

    Oh this is going to be close...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Recount for Farron according to BBC journalist Lucy Manning?!

    May be critical, given he'd ruled out a coalition.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    The SNP are getting completely blitzed.

    Yes but they are getting MPs elected got 8 so far.
    So long as they don't gain Orkney & Shetland, I don't care how many they get. I think was the only buyer of the LDs on Betfair.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Chameleon said:

    alex. said:

    Is there any chance that Boris loses?

    No. The tories have two options, Ruth or Boris. Ruth is still in Scotland. No one else has enough profile yet.
    Considering that Ruth isn't a real option, the party is fucked. If Boris is leader, Corbyn is PM.
    If Boris and IDS both lose I shan't be sober for much of the day,
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @isaby: Sorry to see long-standing Brexiteer David Nuttall lose Bury North, despite the lack of a UKIP candidate this time

    Brexit is fucked.

    What's happening in England is mainly down to WFA and Dementia tax, NOT Brexit.

    Of course the Labour minority/coalition government is going to make to fatal error of thinking this election allows them to get out of Brexit altogether... Which will ultimately pave the way for Farage...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Mortimer said:

    322 now the forecast.

    Oh this is going to be close...

    CON+DUP?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @henrymance: The person booking YouGov's Christmas party is currently deciding between Kanye or Beyonce or both.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    EDW20000 said:

    2nd Brexit ref' this summer

    Could they wait a bit? Our head of elections was supposed to retire in May.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,770
    The right wing press has been proved impotent. It is emasculated. That is huge. May followed the Mail and the Sun. A mistake.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,107
    Forecast up to 322
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216

    ITV the best.

    You can't beat Ozzy and Ed.

    Great stuff.

    Agreed. We got it through the laptop. Well worth the effort. Dumbarton East Lib Dem gain.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Chameleon said:

    Recount for Farron according to BBC journalist Lucy Manning?!

    Oh my. It would be a pleasing result to see him out.
    No.
    Con gain Westmoreland helps sneak towards the majority too...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Liberal Democrat GAIN East Dunbartonshire from SNP.
    Jo Swinson back in. pic.twitter.com/ThdiuIC2Wa
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Wonder when the by election in Maidenhead will be? Doubt May would want to stick around...
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Recount in Perth
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Danzuk loses
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    BBC forecast 322/261/32/13

    Phew. Con govt.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Recount for Farron according to BBC journalist Lucy Manning?!

    Oh my. It would be a pleasing result to see him out.
    No.

    The LDs, with more seats while the social conservative, left wing imposter is no longer leader of the LDs? That's an excellent result for me. It increases the chance that I'll have a party to vote for.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Ken Clarke back for more.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    New forecast:

    Con 322!!!!!!!!!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nickeardleybbc: Tories now think they've won Moray. Result of the night in Scotland if right - means SNP's deputy leader Angus Roberson out
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    isam said:

    Imagine a referendum where all the lefties voted for the winning side, then a Tory govt just came and said "Nah we'll ignore it!"

    It's going to get nasty...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683

    Listening to George Osborne talking on TV is exactly like reading TSE on here.

    Uncanny.

    We are the voices of general election winning policies.

    We are the voices of lower taxation.

    We are the voices of social liberalism.
    One small silver lining, might we get our party back a little....to coin a phrase.
    Hopefully.

    I'm going flail the PBers/Tories that denied the awesomeness of Dave and George.
    If George Osborne had managed to balance the books as he promised by 2015 we would not have had 2 extra years of austerity which Corbyn has clearly mobilised leftwing voters against tonight (including some who voted UKIP in 2015)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    con gain Ochil and perthshire
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    SeanT said:

    I now see a 2nd referendum as quite likely.

    An obvious price to offer the Libdems not to vote down a Queen's Speech.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Recount in Canterbury.

    Shit the bed.
    how we laughed at the Yougov model.....including Messina.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Tories gain Ochil!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories gain Ochil & South Perthshire from SNP.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    It's a damn good night to be a Remainer.

    There is now a real chance that Labour will have most seats but behind on votes.

    FPP being absolutely gamed by the millennials who were being traduced all week for being lazy and feckless on here.

    +1.

    Turns out we know way more about FPTP than Twitter would suggest.
    Quite right.

    Good for you. Good for your generation.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Sefton Central

    Lab 63%
    Con 33%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    New forecast looks odd.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    MikeL said:

    New forecast:

    Con 322!!!!!!!!!

    That you are celebrating that number speaks volumes
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    MikeL said:

    New forecast:

    Con 322!!!!!!!!!

    Now I am just plain confused.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I must say I'm enjoying this enormously.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Must be at least a dozen gains in Scotland given that I would think!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    OCHIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    kle4 said:

    EDW20000 said:

    2nd Brexit ref' this summer

    Could they wait a bit? Our head of elections was supposed to retire in May.
    Dont see any other possibility. There will be another referendum, John Major foresaw all of this
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Moray Conservative gain

    Angus Robertson OUT
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017

    BBC forecast 322/261/32/13

    Phew. Con govt.

    That seems so counter-intuitive to the sort of swings we are seeing with Tories losing some safe seats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    kle4 said:

    I'd take that. Cannot see how it happens though.
    10 gains for the Tories in Scotland.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    322 now the forecast.

    Oh this is going to be close...

    CON+DUP?
    Yeh its going to be a Tory government of some blend or another....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    Fuck yes!
  • Robertson gone
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Con take MORAY!!!!!!!


    WOOOOOOOOOOO
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Wow, that's a scalp! Moray
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    ROBERTSON GONE !!!!!!!!!!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Does anyone know the Wycombe result? Could be a pointer to the shires.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Goodbye Angus
This discussion has been closed.