SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
Anecdote time: I was at a swanky central London restaurant yesterday (very nice, since you ask). On the table next to us was a group of four men, professionals of some sort, probably in their thirties, enjoying the tasting menu with accompanying flight of wines (£135 a head plus service etc). They were talking about the election, and it was quite revealing. None intended to vote Tory, as far as I could tell. One was being urged by the others to vote Labour; he was thinking of doing so, but was a bit worried about his £750K mortgage. Still, he thought he was being a bit selfish to take that into account.
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
I don't agree. They have money aplenty. By voting Labour knowing they will never win gives them the moral high ground too. It's called having your cake and eating it.
At this stage of the 2015 campaign, Cameron was having a bad time, the campaign was lacklustre and the parties were neck and neck.
Result: Tory Majority of 12
Yep.
Last yougovs before prev election: 34-34 34-34 33-33 34-33 34-33 33-34
Actual result: 38-31
This time shyness will work for Labour. Many are intending to vote Labour because they prefer the Labour programme but aren't especially hot on Jeremy Corbyn. And anyway if it's about leadership then Theresa May hasn't got much going for her, so any issues with Corbyn - much as the billionaire media and BBC keep pushing them - are mostly beside the point.
Anecdote time: I was at a swanky central London restaurant yesterday (very nice, since you ask). On the table next to us was a group of four men, professionals of some sort, probably in their thirties, enjoying the tasting menu with accompanying flight of wines (£135 a head plus service etc). They were talking about the election, and it was quite revealing. None intended to vote Tory, as far as I could tell. One was being urged by the others to vote Labour; he was thinking of doing so, but was a bit worried about his £750K mortgage. Still, he thought he was being a bit selfish to take that into account.
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
I don't agree. They have money aplenty. By voting Labour knowing they will never win gives them the moral high ground too. It's called having your cake and eating it.
Here in the Northern marginals where the chip shop is a good meal they're voting Tory because they can't afford the luxury of voting Labour.
That LD range of 3-17 seats is interesting. What do they do if they lose seats at the GE? They might as well throw the towel in. It would be an utter, utter failure.
Bold prediction time. Whatever the result, I think it's no more than a 50% chance, and probably less, that you'll see a "Liberal Democrat" option on the ballot paper at the following General Election.
Odds are that there will either be a realignment associated with the far left takeover of Labour, of which the Lib Dems will be a part, or they will re-brand completely, name included, as a last roll of the dice.
None intended to vote Tory, as far as I could tell. One was being urged by the others to vote Labour; he was thinking of doing so, but was a bit worried about his £750K mortgage. Still, he thought he was being a bit selfish to take that into account.
The guy who said that will secretly vote Tory in the polling booth, and tell his mates he did something else.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
Anyone remember VoteCastr?... that's what YouGov is starting to feel like.
I don't remember them. What happened?
Was a site claiming to offer accurate predictions of the US presidential election last year based on preliminary counts during the day itself. Turned out to be a total failure -
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
I wouldn't think that. Success does not mean people are wise or clever or experienced. Sadly a hell of a lot of people do not have a clue about the wider economy, or government, or history. Listen to a radio phone-in, read the letters to a newspaper, or the comments on a website to witness the gross ignorance that is so common.
Most of us on here are well aware that the whole Labour schtick of "making the rich pay" is ludicrous, the only way Labour's largesse could be afforded would be if almost everyone paid a lot more tax, and that's ignoring the calamitous effects a Corbyn government would have on the economy.
So no, it doesn't surprise me that well-off people are unable to understand what a Corbyn government would be like.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
Anyone remember VoteCastr?... that's what YouGov is starting to feel like.
I don't remember them. What happened?
Was a site claiming to offer accurate predictions of the US presidential election last year based on preliminary counts during the day itself. Turned out to be a total failure -
There are three Independents standing - presumably they think one of these will win?
Claire Wright was second last time as an Indy and it's just possible she'll do one better. I've had a small flutter which I expect to lose, but am not giving up hope on. She's a genuine local independent who hits the sweet spot between attracting Labour, Lib Dems and Greens who want the MP out, without being at all off-putting to soft Tories. She'll be within 10%.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
That LD range of 3-17 seats is interesting. What do they do if they lose seats at the GE? They might as well throw the towel in. It would be an utter, utter failure.
The number of seats is a function of the FPTP election system.
But if they poll under 10% there will be questions.
However, there doesn't seem to be any party currently promoting liberal economic policies.
Lib Dems could revert to their Liberal origins and start promoting free markets, competition, free trade and small state.
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
According to the PB commentariat, May is a total muppet, who is losing millions of votes by the hour as the country warms to Mr. Corbyn.
It's a miracle Labour aren't already 10 points ahead of the Tories, given how dreadful May is.....
To get above a certain level Conservatives and UKIP voters from 2010 and 2015 have to directly switch to Labour, rather than Labour simply cleaning up all the Left-wing votes, all in response to Theresa seeming a bit flaky over the manifesto and its aftermath.
Possible, but I think not. Corbyn is following a noisy 35% strategy without realising it.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
You are aware he is a holocaust-denier and an antisemite? I suspect those might have contributed to his receiving a ban. They say Gary Glitter was a decent singer.
SO according to the YouGov constituency thingy Ceredigion is likely to be Liberal Democrats with the possibilty that the Tories could end up in second place - B*******
Some of the probability ranges are a bit ridiculous. Labour is 95% likely to win Ilford South yet YG's model puts them on just 60%?
That's the percentage of the vote they will get, not their chance of winning.
Ok, yes a touch of the Diane Abbott's there. In my mind was the technical summary I read earlier saying the output of their model was a series of probabilities.
Apart from Twickenham and Ceredigion the LD prospects look like they're all on the knifeedge.
Some good material there, nevertheless, for barcharters in all parties.
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
In the 2010 election there was a giant Lib Dem surge, which failed to materialise. Labour did better than expected.
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
She should have asked her colleagues to draft a dull but solid 'play it safe' thing. Instead she asked a fuckwit to poo in the swimming pool. The voters are less keen on diving in now.
I think that's putting it well. Or perhaps one could say that she asked a fuckwit to fill the pool, but didn't tell him what to fill it with. Off his own bat he filled it with poo, which to be fair sounds a bit like 'pool', into which she dived headfirst having assumed without checking that it would contain clear blue water.
On discovering that it was poo she about-turned sharpish but ultimately it's her fault for delegating pool-filling to a fuckwit unable to distinguish between pool water and poo.
Anecdote time: I was at a swanky central London restaurant yesterday (very nice, since you ask). On the table next to us was a group of four men, professionals of some sort, probably in their thirties, enjoying the tasting menu with accompanying flight of wines (£135 a head plus service etc). They were talking about the election, and it was quite revealing. None intended to vote Tory, as far as I could tell. One was being urged by the others to vote Labour; he was thinking of doing so, but was a bit worried about his £750K mortgage. Still, he thought he was being a bit selfish to take that into account.
The lack of even the most vague understanding of what a Corbyn premiership would do to their jobs, taxes, house values, and mortgage costs was absolutely extraordinary; it was an utter disconnect with reality. I fear that Mr £750K mortgage will find out about reality the very hard way if YouGov are right. And these are people who not only must have a hell of a lot to lose, but who, you would have thought, would have a vague understanding of the world.
I don't agree. They have money aplenty. By voting Labour knowing they will never win gives them the moral high ground too. It's called having your cake and eating it.
Here in the Northern marginals where the chip shop is a good meal they're voting Tory because they can't afford the luxury of voting Labour.
Let me guess, they sleep on the M62 hard shoulder in a box and drink meths of a Friday night for their kicks? If you thought it was grim up north, just wait until you hear from a northerner.
There are three Independents standing - presumably they think one of these will win?
Claire Wright was second last time as an Indy and it's just possible she'll do one better. I've had a small flutter which I expect to lose, but am not giving up hope on. She's a genuine local independent who hits the sweet spot between attracting Labour, Lib Dems and Greens who want the MP out, without being at all off-putting to soft Tories. She'll be within 10%.
Agree, Hugo Swire seems not to be the most constituency engaged MP and Claire Wright seems like she's everywhere in the area. If May was on course to win by 200 then Swire might be in trouble but the fear of Corbyn should get Swire to a 45% share with Wright on 40%, Labour and Lib Dem squeezed to below 5%
@Samfr: YouGov model also has Amber Rudd's seat in Hastings going Labour. So all to play for tonight.
Do they publish this ?
The only place I have seen canvassers out is in Hastings, for Labour. Not many of them but they were working in one of the more Tory bits of the town. I doubt it's in play, but it does make you wonder.
Reality check : Is Copeland honestly likely to head back Labour after being won in a BY-ELECTION ?
That's very plausible IMO. The evidence is that Copeland was won by the Conservatives at the by-election because Labour voters stayed at home in protest rather than due mostly to switchers. If they decide Labour is worth a vote after all i the constituency could revert.
There are three Independents standing - presumably they think one of these will win?
Claire Wright was second last time as an Indy and it's just possible she'll do one better. I've had a small flutter which I expect to lose, but am not giving up hope on. She's a genuine local independent who hits the sweet spot between attracting Labour, Lib Dems and Greens who want the MP out, without being at all off-putting to soft Tories. She'll be within 10%.
Only if the 12.5% UKIP got 2015 goes to her. She has already plundered the Labour and LibDems vote. Personally, I don't think it will be remotely close....
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
In the 2010 election there was a giant Lib Dem surge, which failed to materialise. Labour did better than expected.
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
What a cluster of fucks is here.
She talks to so few people that her own side were just as surprised as everyone else. Indeed her sudden change of mind probably surprised herself.
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
In the 2010 election there was a giant Lib Dem surge, which failed to materialise. Labour did better than expected.
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
It's almost too late. You can't conjure a campaign out of nothing in the final week. The Tories have no plan, no grid, no announcements, nothing. It is quite bizarre.
And Theresa May called this election at a time of her choosing. She could have had it all set up, secretly, while Labour squabbled. She had the advantage of surprise!
What a cluster of fucks is here.
As the saying goes you can't fatten a pig on market day
It's only MOE, as was ICM. In reality, both polls show the Tory lead as stabilising. MOE movements aren't really something to pay attention to.
The whole election campaign is MOE. 95% of people decided if and how they were going to vote the moment the election was called, even if they don't admit it to themselves.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
In the 2010 election there was a giant Lib Dem surge, which failed to materialise. Labour did better than expected.
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
I agree with that; we've heard far too little about what Corbynomics would do to mortgage costs and inflation.
Whatever happens, I hope Timothy is made to walk the plank. Staggering lack of common sense. Even if you think the policy is right, the presentation, lack of lines to promote the policy and defend the obvious attacks are unforgivably poor planning.
Comments
There are three Independents standing - presumably they think one of these will win?
Given he will make us thousands of pounds, and this is a betting site, I am desperate to understand why the Mods won't unblock him.
Dead.....
Odds are that there will either be a realignment associated with the far left takeover of Labour, of which the Lib Dems will be a part, or they will re-brand completely, name included, as a last roll of the dice.
High Peak - Toss up.
Shall I have a drive round Buxton and ask people if they're voting for Corbyn ?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestreptalks/2016/11/11/the-inside-story-behind-tech-startup-votecastrs-bad-election-day-calls/#6549c0bb1d93
Most of us on here are well aware that the whole Labour schtick of "making the rich pay" is ludicrous, the only way Labour's largesse could be afforded would be if almost everyone paid a lot more tax, and that's ignoring the calamitous effects a Corbyn government would have on the economy.
So no, it doesn't surprise me that well-off people are unable to understand what a Corbyn government would be like.
She was still 22.4% behind Hugo Swire....
https://twitter.com/Messina2012/status/869928746974949378
Orkney and Shetland
LEAN SNP
Some of the probability ranges are a bit ridiculous. Labour is 95% likely to win Ilford South yet YG's model puts them on just 60%?
Con - 35-49%
Lab - 30-47%
LD - 8-20%
But if they poll under 10% there will be questions.
However, there doesn't seem to be any party currently promoting liberal economic policies.
Lib Dems could revert to their Liberal origins and start promoting free markets, competition, free trade and small state.
The manifestos, debates, policy blunders, etc. are just props for a massive exercise in choice-supportive bias by the electorate. All the polls are doing is trying to strip away the lies we tell ourselves about how open-minded we are and figure out what it is we've already decided.
WillS.
Possible, but I think not. Corbyn is following a noisy 35% strategy without realising it.
If poll averaging is allowed, then we get (over the past week):-
Yougov 41/38
ICM 45/33
Kantar 43/33
Survation 43/37
Survey Monkey 44/36
Com Res 46/34
Panelbase 48/33
Opinium 45/35
ORB 44/38
Con 44.3%, Lab 35.2%.
Well, it's a view.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_time.php
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/869809299547140096
This poll is garbage surely.
You are aware he is a holocaust-denier and an antisemite? I suspect those might have contributed to his receiving a ban. They say Gary Glitter was a decent singer.
Apart from Twickenham and Ceredigion the LD prospects look like they're all on the knifeedge.
Some good material there, nevertheless, for barcharters in all parties.
Westmorland and Lonsdale leans LibDem too.....
In the 2015 election the polls were all stubbornly neck-and-neck. The Conservatives did much better than expected.
2015-2017 has been some of the most unpredictable politics, worldwide, I can remember. But the polls *all* show Tory leads, the lowest at 3%, with the economy and leadership fundamentals still favouring the Government.
I expect the Conservatives to do ok. But I would personally spend the next week ripping Labour's numbers and economics to utter shreds.
On discovering that it was poo she about-turned sharpish but ultimately it's her fault for delegating pool-filling to a fuckwit unable to distinguish between pool water and poo.
We all said the same about the LATimes tracker...
We all said the same about the LATimes tracker...
She's trashing the party and handing 2022 on a plate to Labour.
Whatever happens, I hope Timothy is made to walk the plank. Staggering lack of common sense. Even if you think the policy is right, the presentation, lack of lines to promote the policy and defend the obvious attacks are unforgivably poor planning.
Various models
Yougov Lab 57 Con 29 UKIP 8 LD 3
Hanretty Lab 52 Con 31 UKIP 13 Lib 4
Electoral calculus Lab 57 Con 29
My model has Lab 59, Tories 26
Based off:
Remain Leave
CON 26 60
LAB 47 24
"Final GB polls GE2015
Poll CON LAB LD UKIP GRN
Populus online 33 34 9 13 5
BMG online 34 34 10 12 4
Opinium online 35 34 8 12 6
TNS online 33 32 8 14 6
ComRes phone 35 34 9 12 4
ICM Phone 34 35 9 11 4
Survation online 33 33 9 16 5
Panelbase online 31 33 8 16 5
YouGov online 34 34 10 12 4
Ipsos MORI phone 36 35 8 11 5
Ashcroft phone 33 33 10 11 6
@YouGov
RT @StephanShaxper A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/08/and-lets-not-forget-the-pollsters-and-the-polls/