"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
I'm off out in a sec but re debate. Don't you think her non participation is already priced in? She said from the start she won't do it, the electorate know that.
May not going to this debate is the dementia tax MK II. Noone will care that Angus Robertson will be there instead of Nicola Sturgeon, she was happily at the last one. Amber Rudd is going to be relentlessly attacked from all sides - and the more people see of Jez, the more they like him. May could have batted this one out to like she did with Paxo and the audience (She was fine on that), instead she'll be THE story for not turning up.
As my other half put it 'If she can't debate Jeremy Corbyn, how will she debate with the EU' ?
May would be relentlessly attacked from all sides also. But she would stand there looking a mixture of gormless and offended then trot out some boring/uninspiring nothing. Amber Rudd will at least go on the offensive and battle back.
Ultimately the bad decision was made weeks ago from a position of power when they decided to opt out. The Tory strategists (lol) thought May didn't need to dirty her hands in such a debate. It's been the story of this whole campaign: not attending debates; not meeting the public; not costing manifestos; not having anything positive to say.
Instead we got the energy cap and the most awkward appearance on the One Show since forever.
I don't think it's that shocking to see politicians campaigning in marginals.
Were TMay and co expected to only visit Labour safe seats or something?
Theresa May would be a fool if she wasn't campaigning in marginal seats.
Exactly. I think this site is so wrapped up in hysteria that it's identifying signs of trouble in situations which are perfectly normal.
I'm sure if you looked at Margaret Thatcher's agenda in 1979, 1983, and 1987, you'd find her campaigning in marginal seats, and the West Midlands especially.
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
The strange thing is she's in a much better position than she was last Tuesday. Election day is 1 week nearer and the polls haven't closed rapidly, dementia tax is 1 week further away, she looked Prime Ministerial after the terrorist attack and Corbyn's gaffe has been seen by the whole country. A 'disasterous' campaign would see the Tories behind, this campaign is merely a bit underwhelming - much like May herself.
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
So is the Times/YouGov thing all a Tory plot to stiffen the base and get them out?
Well it raises the YouGov profile as most UK newspapers have reported the story. To be honest it does not really matter that it might be inaccurate because they will simply say that a last minute swing occurred if it is wrong!
May not going to this debate is the dementia tax MK II. Noone will care that Angus Robertson will be there instead of Nicola Sturgeon, she was happily at the last one. Amber Rudd is going to be relentlessly attacked from all sides - and the more people see of Jez, the more they like him. May could have batted this one out to like she did with Paxo and the audience (She was fine on that), instead she'll be THE story for not turning up.
As my other half put it 'If she can't debate Jeremy Corbyn, how will she debate with the EU' ?
She doesn't need to debate the EU. She needs a negotiating position and she needs to stick to it, or have someone else do that for her.
Debating is all about persuading third parties, and there is a winner. The debaters have to engage.
Negotiations do not absolutely in all cases require you to persuade anyone, and there is not third party judge as to who is negotiating better. There is just an outcome, which can always be judged against Option B.
Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
Its unbelievable on the doorstep she was liked and respected by many at the Locals.
Now she is less popular and less trusted than any politician i can ever remember (even Thatcher)
This Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher thing makes the Poll Tax look like A Fluffy Puppy
And yet you still think she will win. Hmm mmmmmmmm
TMICIPM indeed
What doorstep have you been on? Less popular than Thatcher in 1983 maybe, but that'll do me. My MP has May plastered all over his leaflets. He will win handsomely. The Labour guy has no picture of Corbyn. He will lose this once Labour seat heavily. Lib Dem voters are like rocking horse shit.
Mr. Nakht, that's correct, however, the Labour candidate (Dawson) is a long-term local councillor which should add to his prospects, and they are actually campaigning here. Could go either way.
Mr. Pulpstar, not so sure. Corbyn turning up suddenly is clever, but also a bit transparent because he'll have been preparing for a while. The media will go all girly and giggly for the debate coverage, not so sure other people will care.
Mr. Observer, not sure May will be there for five years, however this election goes.
Yes they may have been a bit of anti-balls voting last time too. I don't know the seat that well but if I remember rightly it is quite commuter friendly close to both M62 and M1, and I think demographically it has to be trending conservative. If the the Tories had been selling their policies and proposals well I would say it would be a hold.
I'm off out in a sec but re debate. Don't you think her non participation is already priced in? She said from the start she won't do it, the electorate know that.
On Friday 2nd June she takes part with Corbyn in the question time debate on the BBC
On Tuesday 6th June she is interviewed by Julie Etchingham on her own in the last debate of the GE
She will have the benefit of being the final interview
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
Politicians, to be great or even just successful need to be good in two areas: 1. Retail. Getting elected. Image. Seeming. Communicating. Leading. Politics basically! 2. Management. Actually running stuff. Getting on with work. Delivering a vision. Results. Government basically.
Mrs May seems actually quite good at 2. But shite at 1. If elected and in power with a decent majority I think she'll do fine. If. But GEs are all about 1! Serious politicians are more comfortable with 2. The gadflys are all about 1. Blair was all 1. Thatcher was basically a 2 type politician but good enough at 1 that it got her elected. Dave was good at 1 but had no vision. His 2 was empty. Given that May sucks at 1 (and seems to know it) she really ought to delegate alot of the 1 stuff as far as she can to those more capable. (Her spads are not in that group).
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
The strange thing is she's in a much better position than she was last Tuesday. Election day is 1 week nearer and the polls haven't closed rapidly, dementia tax is 1 week further away, she looked Prime Ministerial after the terrorist attack and Corbyn's gaffe has been seen by the whole country. A 'disasterous' campaign would see the Tories behind, this campaign is merely a bit underwhelming - much like May herself.
I am fairly relaxed about BBC bias - it has always been there, always anti-tory, never worth whining about because that is about as damaging as the bias itself - but for once, if I were Lab I'd be bloody livid. How "Breast surgeon gets 15 years" beats "May not turning up to debate" when "Corbyn forgets number" was hold-the-front-page all yesterday has me stumped. I suppose there is a kind of horror story interest in the surgeon story but even so...
Tory high command should paint Corbyn's decision as a stunt, pre planned and disrespectful to the electorate.
I agree, Labour only said Corbyn was going to go today because it is too late for May to attend. Not that she would have done anyway even if she had the time for prep. It is a cynical move from the Labour leader who seems to have ditched his honesty first campaign mantra.
I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
I actually think the news narrative has been better for Con over the last week.
- First Manchester got security onto the agenda - Dementia tax has largely faded into background - Sunday Abbott car crash Marr interview - Monday Corbyn generally did OK with Paxman but terrible on Falklands and Monarchy may have worried some - Tuesday Corbyn not knowing numbers on Womans Hour dominated all news - Today Lab won't even try to control immigration
In contrast there hasn't been much specific to remember from May.
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
The strange thing is she's in a much better position than she was last Tuesday. Election day is 1 week nearer and the polls haven't closed rapidly, dementia tax is 1 week further away, she looked Prime Ministerial after the terrorist attack and Corbyn's gaffe has been seen by the whole country. A 'disasterous' campaign would see the Tories behind, this campaign is merely a bit underwhelming - much like May herself.
I am fairly relaxed about BBC bias - it has always been there, always anti-tory, never worth whining about because that is about as damaging as the bias itself - but for once, if I were Lab I'd be bloody livid. How "Breast surgeon gets 15 years" beats "May not turning up to debate" when "Corbyn forgets number" was hold-the-front-page all yesterday has me stumped. I suppose there is a kind of horror story interest in the surgeon story but even so...
I agree entirely, but I remember UKIP getting an incredibly raw deal in the way of positive press, including an entire BBC documentary about how weird all the members were. I remember the left lapping it up and throwing numerous insults in their direction. It's nice to see the boot on the other foot now with all the Corbyn supporters getting caught up in BBC conspiracies and coming across ever increasingly deranged.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
People will wake up in time (i hope) and anywya it'll beThe Sun that wins it with their updated version of the 1992 election day front cover - if Corbyn wins will the last person to leave the country turn out the lights
Tory high command should paint Corbyn's decision as a stunt, pre planned and disrespectful to the electorate.
I agree, Labour only said Corbyn was going to go today because it is too late for May to attend. Not that she would have done anyway even if she had the time for prep. It is a cynical move from the Labour leader who seems to have ditched his honesty first campaign mantra.
Yes. Labour had days to announce if he was attending. Tories should claim they made it clear from the start and are not for turning and make out Labour were the wobbly ones without a plan.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
Yeah, is that the best they can come up with?
They could have said "we agreed with the Corybn campaign that neither of us would appear on the debate", then waffle on about how crap the seven-way debate format is, and they say something like "but our mistake was to take Corbyn and his team at their word".
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
The strange thing is she's in a much better position than she was last Tuesday. Election day is 1 week nearer and the polls haven't closed rapidly, dementia tax is 1 week further away, she looked Prime Ministerial after the terrorist attack and Corbyn's gaffe has been seen by the whole country. A 'disasterous' campaign would see the Tories behind, this campaign is merely a bit underwhelming - much like May herself.
I am fairly relaxed about BBC bias - it has always been there, always anti-tory, never worth whining about because that is about as damaging as the bias itself - but for once, if I were Lab I'd be bloody livid. How "Breast surgeon gets 15 years" beats "May not turning up to debate" when "Corbyn forgets number" was hold-the-front-page all yesterday has me stumped. I suppose there is a kind of horror story interest in the surgeon story but even so...
If you were one of the many women abused you would expect the media to highlight the issues
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
That's a cynically duplicitous comment. She saw full well that her majority now is not enough to push a strong negotiation. The forces of Brexit frustration are today just about powerful enough to wreck it. I think she was right to seek to remove that before the hard work starts. What she is clearly hopeless at is the retail side of politics.
If this has the Tories back in the lead then yesterdays events will scupper that soon enough
What happened yesterday?
Leader of the Tories in Wales and Sec of state for wales arguing with each othe ras to who was suppose to turn up to the BBC Wales leaders debate - in the end thay had to send their education spokesman in Cardiff Bay who did a good job to be fair to him
Oh, and Labour are still 5 to retake Morley & Outwood with Betfair Sportsbook, current blue majority is under 500 votes. Not certain, by any stretch, but certainly plausible.
That's a good bet.
I presume that people expect the 7500 UKIP votes to break for the tories. Only Libdem, Labour and Tory candidates
Isn't Ilford North slightly better value at 3.75? UKPR discussion suggests its demographics have been moving slowly leftwards. Labour won it in 2015 at odds of 4.0 or so.
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
She's too busy thinking about Brexit to appear in an election debate?
Odd, considering she was the one who called an unnecessary election in the first place. She needs to be careful not to appear disdainful of the process.
I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
I agree with that.
As for challenging Corbyn why the hell the Tories aren't making a bigger deal of Corbyn's parliamentary problems is beyond me. "If his own MPs don't support him, why should you?"
If this has the Tories back in the lead then yesterdays events will scupper that soon enough
What happened yesterday?
Leader of the Tories in Wales and Sec of state for wales arguing with each othe ras to who was suppose to turn up to the BBC Wales leaders debate - in the end thay had to send their education spokesman in Cardiff Bay who did a good job to be fair to him
I can see that's embarrassing, but I don't see it as having much electoral impact.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
Truly gob smacking. Inept. I don't care if Tories ultimately get a 150 seat majority, they have been fucking useless and history should show them as such. their campaign has not been genius in any way.
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
Politicians, to be great or even just successful need to be good in two areas: 1. Retail. Getting elected. Image. Seeming. Communicating. Leading. Politics basically! 2. Management. Actually running stuff. Getting on with work. Delivering a vision. Results. Government basically.
Mrs May seems actually quite good at 2. But shite at 1. If elected and in power with a decent majority I think she'll do fine. If. But GEs are all about 1! Serious politicians are more comfortable with 2. The gadflys are all about 1. Blair was all 1. Thatcher was basically a 2 type politician but good enough at 1 that it got her elected. Dave was good at 1 but had no vision. His 2 was empty. Given that May sucks at 1 (and seems to know it) she really ought to delegate alot of the 1 stuff as far as she can to those more capable. (Her spads are not in that group).
If she sucks at 1 and she knows she has deficiency in this area, why have the Tories made her the centre of the campaign? I mean they must have internal polling. Swing voters maybe like what she has to offer. You or the people who generally comment on this site may have a different perception based on how you think a politician should come across. It might be her difference that makes her brand a premium? The same goes for Corbyn with the people he is trying to appeal too. The difference is May is trying to appeal to a broad section of the electorate whereas Corbyn seems to be going for a narrow chunk of it.
I'm off out in a sec but re debate. Don't you think her non participation is already priced in? She said from the start she won't do it, the electorate know that.
To a degree. But the narrative of the campaign when she decided not to go was one of dominant, strong and stable PM refuses to waste her time with pygmies. Now it's one of invisible woman, embarrassed by her dementia tax u-turn, hiding from an electorate she hates having to deal with. It plays into the negative vibe.
If she had a bit of steel, she'd turn up at the last moment.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
Welcome to PB - new posters are always good to see. Will you be staying after the election?
And yes, I know canvassers who are predicting Laboiur gains. Canvassers tend to predict these thing. I'm not sure either way myself, but I think your carefree optimism is misplaced.
If this has the Tories back in the lead then yesterdays events will scupper that soon enough
What happened yesterday?
Leader of the Tories in Wales and Sec of state for wales arguing with each othe ras to who was suppose to turn up to the BBC Wales leaders debate - in the end thay had to send their education spokesman in Cardiff Bay who did a good job to be fair to him
I can see that's embarrassing, but I don't see it as having much electoral impact.
I know Darren Miller, the Welsh conservatives education spokesperson, and he is very good. He should take over from Andrew RT Davies who is hopeless
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain £10 at 5 with Bet 365 for me
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader
You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
The tory machine has been shambolic in terms of this campiagn and actually I surprised there have not been sackings and a re-set (may be it has behind the scenes). Saying that the LDs have not flourished, the SNP are on a holding mission and really it is JC who has had the fun. However, what is the feeling on the streets and doorsteps, that is what is missing from my perspective
You forgot that UKIP have all the vigour of the Norwegian Blue.....
I would think Nuttall can't wait to have a pop at Jezza over the anthem, the IRA etc
If he can remember his name (which is odds against).
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
That's a cynically duplicitous comment. She saw full well that her majority now is not enough to push a strong negotiation. The forces of Brexit frustration are today just about powerful enough to wreck it. I think she was right to seek to remove that before the hard work starts. What she is clearly hopeless at is the retail side of politics.
Great spinning there!
She's playing politics needlessly and she deserves to lose badly. Sadly she won't.
I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
I agree with that.
As for challenging Corbyn why the hell the Tories aren't making a bigger deal of Corbyn's parliamentary problems is beyond me. "If his own MPs don't support him, why should you?"
I thought at least challenging his manifesti policies,haven't seen none of it.
Cameron would have and probably put the tories back on the front foot.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
That's a cynically duplicitous comment. She saw full well that her majority now is not enough to push a strong negotiation. The forces of Brexit frustration are today just about powerful enough to wreck it. I think she was right to seek to remove that before the hard work starts. What she is clearly hopeless at is the retail side of politics.
Utter gibberish.
What aspect of BREXIT has the Commons failed to pass? The Prime Minister should be reminded that parliament isn't there to make her position easier at the negotiating table.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader
You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
The tory machine has been shambolic in terms of this campiagn and actually I surprised there have not been sackings and a re-set (may be it has behind the scenes). Saying that the LDs have not flourished, the SNP are on a holding mission and really it is JC who has had the fun. However, what is the feeling on the streets and doorsteps, that is what is missing from my perspective
You forgot that UKIP have all the vigour of the Norwegian Blue.....
I would think Nuttall can't wait to have a pop at Jezza over the anthem, the IRA etc
If he can remember his name (which is odds against).
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
Politicians, to be great or even just successful need to be good in two areas: 1. Retail. Getting elected. Image. Seeming. Communicating. Leading. Politics basically! 2. Management. Actually running stuff. Getting on with work. Delivering a vision. Results. Government basically.
Mrs May seems actually quite good at 2. But shite at 1. If elected and in power with a decent majority I think she'll do fine. If. But GEs are all about 1! Serious politicians are more comfortable with 2. The gadflys are all about 1. Blair was all 1. Thatcher was basically a 2 type politician but good enough at 1 that it got her elected. Dave was good at 1 but had no vision. His 2 was empty. Given that May sucks at 1 (and seems to know it) she really ought to delegate alot of the 1 stuff as far as she can to those more capable. (Her spads are not in that group).
If she sucks at 1 and she knows she has deficiency in this area, why have the Tories made her the centre of the campaign? I mean they must have internal polling. Swing voters maybe like what she has to offer. You or the people who generally comment on this site may have a different perception based on how you think a politician should come across. It might be her difference that makes her brand a premium? The same goes for Corbyn with the people he is trying to appeal too. The difference is May is trying to appeal to a broad section of the electorate whereas Corbyn seems to be going for a narrow chunk of it.
May is / was very popular. Miles and miles ahead of Corbyn. Using her brand as a centrepiece for the campaign was entirely sensible. What was sublimely fuckwitted was allowing a spad to draft a manifesto that is not Tory and which seems to have had no consideration given to how the social care element would play out. It forced May into trashing her own brand a bit. I think basically all of the grief she now faces stems from a shite manifesto. She should have asked her colleagues to draft a dull but solid 'play it safe' thing. Instead she asked a fuckwit to poo in the swimming pool. The voters are less keen on diving in now. At heart I think she has been too ambitious. Brexit is enough to contend with. This GE is not the time to push a broader vision (if she has one). Get us the fuck out of the EU sensibly. That's all that matters right now. She bit off more than she can chew.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
I'm off out in a sec but re debate. Don't you think her non participation is already priced in? She said from the start she won't do it, the electorate know that.
To a degree. But the narrative of the campaign when she decided not to go was one of dominant, strong and stable PM refuses to waste her time with pygmies. Now it's one of invisible woman, embarrassed by her dementia tax u-turn, hiding from an electorate she hates having to deal with. It plays into the negative vibe.
If she had a bit of steel, she'd turn up at the last moment.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
If Labour are making ANY gains, that's deeply worrying for the Tories and May in particular. Not because she risks having to hand in the keys to Number 10, but because she called the election demanding a decisive mandate against an incredible opposition leader who couldn't possibly form a working government. To be denied it - to tread water - would be the most massive slap in the face, and fatally undermine her young Premiership.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
That's a cynically duplicitous comment. She saw full well that her majority now is not enough to push a strong negotiation. The forces of Brexit frustration are today just about powerful enough to wreck it. I think she was right to seek to remove that before the hard work starts. What she is clearly hopeless at is the retail side of politics.
Great spinning there!
She's playing politics needlessly and she deserves to lose badly. Sadly she won't.
Just like corbyn turning up for leaders debate tonight.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
No its not
TMICIPM 70 majority would be my guess
Shouldn't that be TICIPM?
I know Brits like an underdog, but 'Come on Tim!' is not going to be Prime Minister.
I'm off out in a sec but re debate. Don't you think her non participation is already priced in? She said from the start she won't do it, the electorate know that.
To a degree. But the narrative of the campaign when she decided not to go was one of dominant, strong and stable PM refuses to waste her time with pygmies. Now it's one of invisible woman, embarrassed by her dementia tax u-turn, hiding from an electorate she hates having to deal with. It plays into the negative vibe.
If she had a bit of steel, she'd turn up at the last moment.
Another u-turn?
Yeah, they are boxed into this position now. If only they could defend it better!
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
It is utterly shite. Labour are coming up with some crisp, funny, memorable lines - James Oliver/Oliver Twist, the Lady's Not For Turning Up, etc
The Tories huff and push and huff, like a highly constipated weasel, and then they produce a tiny little turdlet, like this. It's not only dull and offputting it implies Jeremy Corbyn will likely be the next prime minister.
As for the "swapping soundbites" press release, OMFG.
The Tory campaign, already the worst in the history of the visible universe, threatens to get even worse than that, something that will actually contravene the laws of physics.
Wasn't Carlotta her tutorial partner or something ? Can we find out if she has form in 'the college cat ate my essay' type excuses...
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
It is nevertheless very hard to canvass anyone aged under 30. Canvassing is a sample biased heavily towards older people, in an election where the age-differences in voting intention have never been greater.
I think Derby North could be a Lab Gain
One of the smallest Tory majorities in the country could be a Lab gain.... doesn't sound all that promising.
A seven-way debate is IMO ridiculous, way too many to have a decent debate.
I'd go further and say that it is a UK wide general election and only those parties running in at least 326 seats can attend. Possibly even require you to already have one MP (either at dissolution or at 2015 GE) so SNP and Plaid are out. Possibly UKIP out too depending on which rule you took.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
It's so lame, "I'm washing my hair!"
Lord help us.
Bad that they still don't have a good line on why she isn't appearing in the debate.
Getting a huge majority in the GE was meant to be a crucial part of strengthening her hand in the Brexit negotiations so that she could get us a good deal. Therefor by her logic focussing on Brexit requires her to focus on the GE.
Can't any of her inner circle think matters more than one step ahead?
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
I am pretty confident that both Labour and Tories will take seats off each other. Net gain Tory obviously but voter constellations are changing.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Labour was largely absent from the political conversation since Brexit.
What the general election has done has brought the party back centre stage. It's a brutal fact of FPTP that the second party matters.
Couple that with a refreshing manifesto and suddenly it's not a walkover.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
Welcome to PB - new posters are always good to see. Will you be staying after the election?
And yes, I know canvassers who are predicting Laboiur gains. Canvassers tend to predict these thing. I'm not sure either way myself, but I think your carefree optimism is misplaced.
Can any Labour campaigner in a marginal come on here and predict a big win? No. Because Cons will eat them for breakfast. I wondered if it was just in the North we are popular, but Baroness Varsey confirmed to me this morning that CCHQ are mystified by the polls. She expects to pick up 2,500 votes to take Wakefield. She is a local so she knows what she's talking about and certainly our returns have sent her away with a spring in her step.
Welcome to PB - new posters are always good to see. Will you be staying after the election?
And yes, I know canvassers who are predicting Laboiur gains. Canvassers tend to predict these thing. I'm not sure either way myself, but I think your carefree optimism is misplaced.
My carefree optimism is borne of weeks of trudging round doorsteps in marginal Northern seats. I guess labour campaigners don't come on here, but I would like to hear predictions of a big win from the horses mouth, ie my counterpart on the Corbyn team. I do hope panic sets in and the odds go to Labour so I can bet big on a Con win. Will I be here after? I've been here for quite a while and it's an entertaining read so I guess I may be around to observe the next panic fest in 2022.
May says she won't debate because she is focussing on Brexit.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
That's a cynically duplicitous comment. She saw full well that her majority now is not enough to push a strong negotiation. The forces of Brexit frustration are today just about powerful enough to wreck it. I think she was right to seek to remove that before the hard work starts. What she is clearly hopeless at is the retail side of politics.
What aspect of BREXIT has the Commons failed to pass? The Prime Minister should be reminded that parliament isn't there to make her position easier at the negotiating table.
When she has a deal it will need to be approved. The wreckers will then complain about a 'take it or leave it' vote and start pushing for endless edits - essentially undermining the negotiation. And then the lords will, without a manifesto commitment, start playing their games. She needs two things: 1. Brexit solidly in a manifesto; and 2. A majority to pass the 'take it or leave it' vote or to support 'just walk'. Or we may see the establishment successfully frustrate the referendum vote.
I'm beginning to think that Corbyn could win this election as much as I don't want to believe it. This would be the biggest disaster this country has faced since World War II and I don't think that's being pessimistic. My only hope is that when they get to the ballot box next week the British people have good sense to keep Jeremy Corbyn away from the levers of power. This country is at a crossroads which will affect our children and grandchildren and I fear in Corbyn we are about to take a wrong turn which will be an unmitigated disaster for the UK . There has been a marked change in public perception since the tory manifesto launch and opinion seems to be shifting towards Corbyn, the momentum is with him at the moment although the polls and all the underlying statistics would suggest he is definitely going to lose this could turn out to be another polling disaster where the underdog comes through from the outside and takes pole position. doesn't bear thinking about what the consequences of him winning would be but hey Ho what can we do about it if he does. The Tories do not seem to be challenging his manifesto, his record, his past, and his own MPs support for him. it feels like the Tory campaign is frozen and unresponsive and unprepared Lord help us all
I agree with that.
As for challenging Corbyn why the hell the Tories aren't making a bigger deal of Corbyn's parliamentary problems is beyond me. "If his own MPs don't support him, why should you?"
On balance I far prefer Corbyn to May. She's a humourless and cold automaton.
Both are to a great extent accidental leaders, him due to Margaret Beckett and others nominating him, her due to the chaos after the EU ref.
FFS though, his manifesto is no more left-wing than Harold Wilson's manifestos were. He won four elections, kept us out of a foreign war (Vietnam) and kept the Labour party together over Europe.
John Smith had he lived would have won in 1997 on a right-wing Old Labour manifesto. Still though to the left of Thatcher and Sons.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Its certainly a lot more valid a comment than your perennial meltdowns. You go to pieces so fast that we have to duck to avoid the shrapnel. SO is a left wing commentator on here who doesn't try to gloss over how badly his party his lead. He makes well constructed arguments even if I don't agree with him very often. His contributions are certainly a lot more useful than your blue funks and never ending mid life crisis.
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
May is crap, Corbyn is toxic. That's why May wins. But she's going to have one hell of a five years, whatever majority she receives.
Oh god, you said it again. Exactly the same fucking thing. We all know you think this, we all know your reasoning, we heard it the first time, and the 9th time, and the 4,396th time.
Southam and I have an unspoken non-aggression pact so I won't agree with you, but on the facts, Corbyn is clearly seeming less toxic by the day. I see that in the latest Ipsos-Mori in Scotland he's just 2 points behind May as likely to be the "most capable Prime Minister". May's personal rating has fallen from +16 in September to -27 now, a pretty impressive slump, while Corbyn is up from -27 to -13. Ruth Davidson is also down, from +21 to +5 (vs -2 for Dugdale, up 8), and Sturgeon is down from +14 to -4 (yes, below Dugdale).
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
Corbyn has better personal ratings now? Really? Wow - that's an enormous change in public opinion.
A week is a long time in politics. I got a very sniffy reaction from pb's Conservatives last Tuesday morning when I suggested that "In a choice between not very good and utterly hopeless, not very good wins by a landslide." The idea that Theresa May is not very good has taken hold very quickly.
The strange thing is she's in a much better position than she was last Tuesday. Election day is 1 week nearer and the polls haven't closed rapidly, dementia tax is 1 week further away, she looked Prime Ministerial after the terrorist attack and Corbyn's gaffe has been seen by the whole country. A 'disasterous' campaign would see the Tories behind, this campaign is merely a bit underwhelming - much like May herself.
I am fairly relaxed about BBC bias - it has always been there, always anti-tory, never worth whining about because that is about as damaging as the bias itself - but for once, if I were Lab I'd be bloody livid. How "Breast surgeon gets 15 years" beats "May not turning up to debate" when "Corbyn forgets number" was hold-the-front-page all yesterday has me stumped. I suppose there is a kind of horror story interest in the surgeon story but even so...
I'm not sure Corbyn has given the media time for a narrative. The BBC will already have lined up the court case coverage including the emotional victims - not sure they would bump it for a confected political story
That's truly pathetic. FFS get someone in for the Tories who knows what they are doing.
She's too busy thinking about Brexit to appear in an election debate?
Odd, considering she was the one who called an unnecessary election in the first place. She needs to be careful not to appear disdainful of the process.
That is an absolute classic from May. "I haven't got time to debate. I'm thinking about Brexit." Imagine saying the leader of the opposition shouldn't be debating, in an election that she herself has called!
Comments
Status quo Lab win in Wales wouldn't be historic.
Does this suggest a move back to Con as per a few weeks ago?
And even with that I know that a lot of worrying is a bit OTT.
Ultimately the bad decision was made weeks ago from a position of power when they decided to opt out. The Tory strategists (lol) thought May didn't need to dirty her hands in such a debate. It's been the story of this whole campaign: not attending debates; not meeting the public; not costing manifestos; not having anything positive to say.
Instead we got the energy cap and the most awkward appearance on the One Show since forever.
Debating is all about persuading third parties, and there is a winner. The debaters have to engage.
Negotiations do not absolutely in all cases require you to persuade anyone, and there is not third party judge as to who is negotiating better. There is just an outcome, which can always be judged against Option B.
On Tuesday 6th June she is interviewed by Julie Etchingham on her own in the last debate of the GE
She will have the benefit of being the final interview
Turning up is disrespectful
Not bothering is
Oh hang on.
That kind of advice to CCHQ is why we no longer have Landslide May.
1. Retail. Getting elected. Image. Seeming. Communicating. Leading. Politics basically!
2. Management. Actually running stuff. Getting on with work. Delivering a vision. Results. Government basically.
Mrs May seems actually quite good at 2. But shite at 1. If elected and in power with a decent majority I think she'll do fine. If. But GEs are all about 1! Serious politicians are more comfortable with 2. The gadflys are all about 1. Blair was all 1. Thatcher was basically a 2 type politician but good enough at 1 that it got her elected. Dave was good at 1 but had no vision. His 2 was empty.
Given that May sucks at 1 (and seems to know it) she really ought to delegate alot of the 1 stuff as far as she can to those more capable. (Her spads are not in that group).
- First Manchester got security onto the agenda
- Dementia tax has largely faded into background
- Sunday Abbott car crash Marr interview
- Monday Corbyn generally did OK with Paxman but terrible on Falklands and Monarchy may have worried some
- Tuesday Corbyn not knowing numbers on Womans Hour dominated all news
- Today Lab won't even try to control immigration
In contrast there hasn't been much specific to remember from May.
If you were focussing on Brexit, Mrs My, you wouldn't have called an unneccessary General Election!
They could have said "we agreed with the Corybn campaign that neither of us would appear on the debate", then waffle on about how crap the seven-way debate format is, and they say something like "but our mistake was to take Corbyn and his team at their word".
Odd, considering she was the one who called an unnecessary election in the first place. She needs to be careful not to appear disdainful of the process.
As for challenging Corbyn why the hell the Tories aren't making a bigger deal of Corbyn's parliamentary problems is beyond me. "If his own MPs don't support him, why should you?"
If she had a bit of steel, she'd turn up at the last moment.
Can't recall an election with two such poor options.
Mr. Voter, cheers for the tip.
Edited extra bit: hmm, where are Labour 3.75 for Ilford North?
And yes, I know canvassers who are predicting Laboiur gains. Canvassers tend to predict these thing.
Lord help us.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/paul-nuttall-mocked-calling-leanne-wood-natalie-twice-itv-debate/
She's playing politics needlessly and she deserves to lose badly. Sadly she won't.
Cameron would have and probably put the tories back on the front foot.
What aspect of BREXIT has the Commons failed to pass? The Prime Minister should be reminded that parliament isn't there to make her position easier at the negotiating table.
TMICIPM 70 majority would be my guess
At heart I think she has been too ambitious. Brexit is enough to contend with. This GE is not the time to push a broader vision (if she has one). Get us the fuck out of the EU sensibly. That's all that matters right now. She bit off more than she can chew.
We should have elections more often: clearly they do wonders for Labour leaders.
"The first two polls of this campaign showed clear Conservative party leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough."
..before going on to show how Labour had overtaken the Tories. The use of that "historic" word again would suggest to me that the Tories are back on top in Wales .... or they've collapsed entirely.
WillS.
EMWNBPM
Can we find out if she has form in 'the college cat ate my essay' type excuses...
Bad that they still don't have a good line on why she isn't appearing in the debate.
Getting a huge majority in the GE was meant to be a crucial part of strengthening her hand in the Brexit negotiations so that she could get us a good deal. Therefor by her logic focussing on Brexit requires her to focus on the GE.
Can't any of her inner circle think matters more than one step ahead?
What the general election has done has brought the party back centre stage. It's a brutal fact of FPTP that the second party matters.
Couple that with a refreshing manifesto and suddenly it's not a walkover.
1. Brexit solidly in a manifesto; and
2. A majority to pass the 'take it or leave it' vote or to support 'just walk'.
Or we may see the establishment successfully frustrate the referendum vote.
Both are to a great extent accidental leaders, him due to Margaret Beckett and others nominating him, her due to the chaos after the EU ref.
FFS though, his manifesto is no more left-wing than Harold Wilson's manifestos were. He won four elections, kept us out of a foreign war (Vietnam) and kept the Labour party together over Europe.
John Smith had he lived would have won in 1997 on a right-wing Old Labour manifesto. Still though to the left of Thatcher and Sons.
Wow - that's an enormous change in public opinion.
THERESA MAY - JEREMY WILL